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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 151125 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
525 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 523 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2019

See updated aviation discussion below.

&&


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 333 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2019

For the most part low clouds/fog have failed to materialize with
mostly high clouds and some low clouds confined to the upslope
portion of the Coteau which the backdoor front has drifted up
against.  The rest of the CWA is under light southerly flow. As a
system develops out west, low level flow becomes more easterly. This
may still lead to some stratus development as an inversion
strengthens across the CWA. In the interim, sunshine should at least
still allow temperatures to warm back into the 40s. The front moving
across the area Saturday still looks fairly unimpressive with just
low POPs and little if any QPF. Frontal passage will at least help
enhance mixing so despite cloud cover temperatures could at least
still top out in the 40s.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 333 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2019

The extended period will feature a few time periods where light rain
or snow showers are possible. The most likely time periods of
precipitation will be Saturday night, Sunday night into the day
Monday, and late Tuesday night into the day Wednesday. The Saturday
night system will be associated with a frontal boundary and upper
level trough tracking across the area. The second system will also
be with a frontal boundary moving through, but with much weaker
upper level support. The third system will be precipitation on the
north side of a low tracking across the central part of the country,
also with just weak upper level support. These systems continue to
look pretty weak, and do not anticipate much in the way of rainfall
or snow accumulations with any of them. High pressure settles in
over the area Wednesday night and Thursday, bringing dry and
slightly cooler conditions.

Temperatures will be fairly mild through the period, with highs in
the mid 30s to upper 40s Sunday, in the 40s and 50s Monday and
Tuesday, in the 30s and 40s Wednesday, and in the 30s on Thursday.
Overnight lows will generally be in the 20s to lower 30s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 523 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2019

The far northeastern part of South Dakota and west central
Minnesota will see some IFR cigs and vsbys in fog early this
morning, with conditions improving after sunrise. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail across the area today and tonight.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...Parkin

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Aberdeen, SD (ABR) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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