884
FXUS63 KABR 190520
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1120 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wind chills of -15 to -25 are expected through Monday morning.

- There is a 50-70% chance of 1" of snow or more Tuesday, mainly
  over northeastern South Dakota.

- Winds Wednesday will gust out of the northwest 25 to 45 mph,
  with the strongest wind over central South Dakota.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 647 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

The snow and blowing snow is improving over much of central SD, so
the Winter Weather Advisory for that area has been cancelled.
Headlines remain in place for northeastern SD and west central MN.
Still, winds continue to slowly diminish and lingering light snow
is also tapering off.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Most areas are seeing intermittent visibility reductions in blowing
snow this afternoon, generally down to around a mile in town,
especially east of the Missouri River. Open areas east of the James
Valley have reported/shown less than 1/2 mile. Winds are also
increasing quickly this afternoon as pressure rises push south.
Gusts above high wind warning criteria have been isolated with a
couple gusts above 60 mph peppered in Corson and Edmunds county.

Expect snow showers to start tapering off after 21z from north to
south. Winds will take a little longer to diminish but are expected
to be in the 10 to 20 mph range by Monday morning. Wind chills also
are not expected to hit advisory criteria falling to around 15 to 25
below, coldest along the Coteau.

Main concern after all of today`s weather exits turns to
Tuesday/Wednesday. A shortwave trough clips the region late Tuesday.
Northwest winds aloft with this clipper are not overly strong -
about 45 kts at 700 mb with 70 kts in the jet streak. This system
also seems more isothermal with the initial push on Tuesday.
Wednesday, however, there is stronger caa and increased mixing to
850 mb of some 40 kt winds. A 1030s high moves in from the northwest
on Wednesday afternoon. Highest chances for blowing snow occur
Wednesday morning. It could be an ugly commute.

After mid week, models start to diverge with little consistency
regarding precip chances, though most solutions bring in a colder
airmass for Friday into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1120 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Expect VFR conditions and winds diminishing with gusts of 25kts
or less at most locations by 08Z. At ATY, MVFR ceilings are
expected to continue until 09Z and wind gusts will take until
around 11Z to diminish to 25kts or less.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...06