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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD
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677 FXUS63 KABR 151502 AAC AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1002 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 1001 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Allowed the dense fog advisory to expire this morning as satellite indicates fog has mostly dissipated across the James Valley. However, fog will still linger over portions of Codington, Hamlin and Deuel counties over the next one to two hours, including Watertown. All areas are expected to be fog-free by noon. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday Afternoon) Issued at 402 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Forecast challenge is temperature. Currently, skies are clear, and temperatures range from the mid 50s to the low 60s across the CWA on light and variable winds. Satellite, surface obs and area webcams highlight radiation fog formation is underway across portions of the Dakotas and Minnesota early this morning while a weak surface ridge of high pressure continues to slowly work toward the SoDak/MN border. Have issued a Dense Fog Advisory for several counties across the far eastern and southeastern portions of the CWA early this morning through a few hours past sunrise. Should see more sunshine for a longer period of time today across the CWA, while low and mid-level WAA really gets going. Breezy southerly winds should be developing across the region by late in the day, with a strong low level jet taking over tonight and getting mixed into the boundary layer on Monday. Not all that impressed with precipitation potential on Monday. For now, keeping the today through Monday portion of the 7-day forecast dry. Temperature guidance is in the right ballpark for today/Monday, supporting high temperatures in the 80s, and for some areas across the Missouri River valley into the low 90s on Monday. .LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Saturday) Issued at 402 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Still plenty of warm air aloft across the region to start the extended period, as we open up the period in southwest mid-level flow. Monday night looks to stay rather mild as southerly breezes continue through the night. Lows will stay in the 60s. Increased highs a couple degrees on Tuesday as 850mb temps remain rather warm and mixing continues with southerly winds. Frontal boundary crosses the region Tuesday night as a shortwave moves northeast across the Dakotas. Models keep temps rather mild through the period and looking at mostly 70s for highs from mid-week onward to the end of the forecast period. As for precipitation chances, a 40 knot low-level jet develops Monday night, with models indicating some potential for showers along the nose of the jet, or near the SD/MN border. Will maintain slight chance POPs for the far eastern CWA late Monday night. Precip also possible with the shortwave and surface boundary passage Tuesday night. Otherwise, expecting better chances for showers by the end of the week as a large upper level wave moves into the northern plains. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning) Issued at 655 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Some IFR/MVFR fog and low stratus, which have developed at the KABR/KATY terminals, will persist for a few more hours this morning before conditions become VFR. By 18Z today, all four terminals are expected to be in good VFR for the remainder of the TAF valid period. Later tonight, expect some llws to develop across the region. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Wise SHORT TERM...Dorn LONG TERM...TMT AVIATION...Dorn
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NWS Aberdeen, SD (ABR) Office Forecast Discussions.
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