211
FXUS63 KABR 162336 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
536 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures continue through Monday, with highs in
  the mid 40s to mid 50s.

- There is a 50 to 70% chance of precipitation Monday afternoon
  into early Tuesday morning. Mainly rain is expected. However, a
  band of moderate rain or snow will be possible Monday night
  over northeastern SD to west central MN.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 532 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Aviation discussion updated below for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

We`re starting out this afternoon with a surface high over our west
central MN counties and an elongated area of low pressure near the
Rockies. In between, winds remain out of the southeast with gusts
around 15kts or less. Our main concern will be with the evolution of
the elongated low to our west, where precipitation will set up, how
intense the precipitation will be (convection possible with sleet),
and how cold temperatures can get at and stay in the column
(rain/snow/freezing rain). Significant uncertainties still remain.

The Hazardous Weather Outlook has been updated for our eastern
counties (mainly Prairie Coteau and east) to mention the light rain
Monday afternoon changing to a wintry mix of mainly rain and snow
late Monday evening into early Tuesday morning. A narrow band of
precipitation will form somewhere over northeastern South Dakota and
west central Minnesota down through east central South Dakota, with
uncertainty in the exact location. Temperatures near freezing and a
narrow band of higher precipitation may result in a small area of
around an inch of snow early Tuesday morning, mainly over grassy and
elevated surfaces. Brief slick and slushy roadways will also be
possible.

As for specifics, the surface high will stretch from far
southwestern SD to western KS by 18Z Monday, with light rain moving
into our southwestern counties. The nearly stacked sfc-500mb low
over NE-KS at 00Z Tuesday will push across KS/IA by 12Z Tuesday as
high pressure across northern Manitoba and Ontario bushes a drying
ridge over central SD and eventually the rest of the forecast area
by midday.

There are a couple different camps of where the highest
precipitation will set up in an enhanced area of fgen (a mainly west
to east oriented band), as noted by the Snowband probability Tracker
with the HREF highlighting anywhere from around PIR-ATY or around
and east of Sisseton. A farther south band would likely be able to
tap into an more unstable area with higher lapse rates. While we are
in the Day 2 SPC convective outlook for general thunderstorms over
the southern half of the forecast area, thunder has not been added
to our forecast at this time due to the uncertainty. A farther
southern band may also result in a higher potential of sleet, which
we do have a small broken mention of from near PIR-ATY for around 2-
4 hours Monday evening. Colder air moving in behind the low will be
a concern. Several of the 12Z EC ensemble solution have come in
slightly cooler with more light snow possible over our far eastern
counties overnight into early Tuesday morning. Wetbulb temperatures
were highly utilized, especially from 09-12Z Tuesday, resulting in
more of a rain/snow mix to our ongoing forecast. The main concern is
that a degree of 2 change higher or lower would result in the
difference between rain/snow and even a small chance of freezing
rain. With the banded nature to the precipitation Monday night, it`s
not out of the question to get a quick 1-2" of wet/heavy snow (snow
to liquid ratios near 6:1 after 06Z Tuesday) over far eastern SD or
west central MN. Given the warm surface temperatures, any snowfall
accumulation will be mainly melting on roadways. However, a quick
burst of snow will bring brief slushy roadways. Falling
precipitation won`t be spending too much time in air below -8C (and
mainly around -2 to 0C from 700mb to the surface), leading to a
lower snow to liquid ratio and a higher chance of melting at the
surface.

Dry weather looks to hold for much of the daytime hours Tuesday
through Wednesday evening, with only a 20% chance of light rain
spreading across the area late Wednesday afternoon through the day
Thursday. The rest of the forecast period, through Sunday, looks
dry. Highs will be in the 40s to low 50s, except Wednesday when a
few locations over south central SD could rise to near 60F.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 532 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will persist through most of the TAF period. Will
be watching a storm system moving into the region on Monday, with
MVFR CIGs moving into KPIR towards the end of the period. Will
also see a band of -SHRA/SHRA moving northward into the area
Monday afternoon into the evening hours, with MVFR VSBY possible.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...TMT