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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 170219 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
919 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 917 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

Scattered thunderstorms, some strong to severe, continue across
the area this evening. Additional development is still expected
overnight, possibly in the form of an MCS. No changes made to
winds or temperatures at this time.

&&


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

The stage is being set tonight and early Wednesday for
thunderstorms to affect much the CWA. We have an enhanced risk of
severe weather west of the James River Valley tonight with a
slight risk elsewhere. There will be two short wave troughs from
the west responsible for the storm development. All of the
operational models and hi-res models point to two areas of
development this evening and overnight into Wednesday morning. One
area of development will likely be into this evening in north
central South Dakota and maybe into northeast South Dakota. The
other area of storms will be coming into western South Dakota this
evening and spreading east overnight into Wednesday morning. The
deep layer wind shear of 40 to 60 knots will be sufficient for
supercells with possible very large hail and damaging winds. The
second round of storms will likely be a line with straight line
wind damage more of a threat as the LLJ increases in advance of
it tonight. Therefore, have increased pops overnight into
Wednesday morning. The first area will move east Wednesday morning
with more development with the second short wave trough Wednesday
afternoon and evening mainly in the east. Highs should be in the
80s on Wednesday.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

An active weather pattern is expected early in the period with
several waves of convection possible. A couple of surface low
pressure systems, along with upper level shortwaves will bring
periods of thunderstorms, Thursday through Sunday morning. Minor
timing and intensity issues among models leads to a lower forecaster
confidence with regards to weather and pops. After a warm Thursday,
temperatures should remain mostly in the 80s through the rest of the
period. Cooler temperatures could be possible early next week as
models indicate a significant pattern change with northwest flow
aloft developing over the region. A sprawling surface high pressure
may finally bring a much needed break from the active weather
pattern.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

Thunderstorm potential will increase this evening into the
overnight hours across the area. Some of the storms will be strong
to severe, with very large hail and strong winds expected. See
specific TAFs for the best expected timing. The storms will exit
the area Wednesday morning. Additional redevelopment is possible
across the east Wednesday afternoon. Periods of MVFR cigs and
vsbys will be possible with the storms.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Parkin
SHORT TERM...Mohr
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...Parkin

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Aberdeen, SD (ABR) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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