165
FXUS63 KABR 120805
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
205 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures by a good 20-30 degrees and dry
conditions will persist through the end of the week. Temps in the
60s to low 70s will be possible Friday which is close to record
highs for some locales.

- Slightly cooler temperatures return this weekend into early next
week with increasing rain chances (25-45%) Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 205 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

The short term is dominated by an upper ridge that gradually
migrates from the Pacific Northwest towards the eastern Rockies. At
the surface, an elongated ridge of high pressure extends across the
area through Thursday morning, with a lee low developing in
Alberta/Saskatchewan. The main result is warm advection aloft for
Thursday, with 850mb temperatures between +8 and +14C from northeast
to southwest respectively. Wind trajectory isn`t terribly favorable
at south southeast for mixing the bulk of that to the surface, so it
will come down to sunshine. The GFS has mainly low humidity at 700,
500 and 300mb respectively, though the NAM has a touch more humidity
aloft. NBM cloud cover leans mainly clear.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 205 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Starting out Thursday evening into Friday, Clusters continue to
indicate a split flow troughing pattern over the western CONUS
northward through western Canada. Ensembles still agree on the
southern trough/low being deeper than the northern stream. Clusters
that are majority EC do indicate the northern trough slightly deeper
than GEFS members with the axis of the trough over ~British
Columbia/Alberta border. Through Saturday, the northern wave will
shift eastward with Clusters agreeing on a ridge building behind it.
Not much movement with the southern wave/low as it will continue to
spin near or over the southern California coast. As this ridge
tracks east and over the region Sunday/Monday, the southern wave/low
will track into the central Plains. Well into the extended, Clusters
overall indicate another split flow troughing pattern moving in off
the Pacific coast pushing eastward through the middle of next week.
However timing, position, and intensity of this pattern greatly
differ from each other. So very low confidence on exact synoptic
outcome as of now.

At the surface, a low will track east then northeast across Canada
Friday and Saturday, then dip southeast over the eastern Canadian
Provinces Sunday. With this track its surface trough/ cold front
will track across the Northern Plains Friday and Saturday, along
with a secondary cold front. ENS still tries to bring a chance of
precip to the northern half of the CWA while GEFS still keeps it
north/northwest of the CWA with NBM pops 10% or less over the
northern CWA. Jumping ahead into early next week with this next
trough and its surface lows, precip looks to return to the area with
meteograms mainly hinting at PTYPE being rain (30-40%) on the warm
side with precip changing to rain/snow or snow on the cold side of
the system Monday night/Tuesday. It is too early to tell exact ptype
just yet on the cold side of the system, or if any warm nose aloft
will cause for freezing rain/sleet. EC meteograms does hint at
possible freezing rain/sleet, however, chances are about 5% as of
right now. NBM spread in temps for Max and Min is 9-11 degrees with
EC having colder temps than GEFS at this point in time.

South to southerly winds at the surface to 850mb Friday and temps at
850mb ranging from 16-19C (96th-99th percentile!) will bring in
quite the warm air! Highs are forecast in the 60s to the lower to
mid 70s, warmest over south central SD. EC EFI indicates TMAX
ranging from 0.6-0.9 and a shift of tails of zero over central to
southern SD. We will be within 5 degrees of record highs at our ASOS
sites. Behind the passing cold front, highs will drop back into the
50s on Saturday with colder air filtering in for Sunday and early
next week with EC indicating colder air than GEFS at this point,
which is why our spread in temps is large.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1110 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast at all 4 terminals through this TAF
cycle. Light west to northwesterly winds will also prevail.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...MMM
AVIATION...10