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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD
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000 FXUS63 KABR 011118 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 618 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Afternoon) Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020 A decent winter-like storm to affect the region through Friday. However, one more decent day tempwise across the CWA before the colder air moves in. For today temperatures will again be well above normal ahead of an advancing sfc front. As the front edges into the east toward late afternoon, there may be just enough lift/moisture/instability to support a few showers and possibly even an isolated thunderstorm over mainly the northeast CWA. Then the main system kicks out tonight into Thursday, with a follow-on wave for later on Thursday into Thursday night. For later tonight into Thursday morning precipitation is expected to spread northeast across much of the CWA, as strong UVM moves over the region. Decent H3 divergence coupled with strong mid-level frontogenesis should provide the lift. HREF snowband probabilities do highlight parts of central SD for some banding potential overnight. Something for later shifts to keep an eye on. Precipitation is expected to start off as a mix but then gradually transition to mostly snow over the Missouri valley tonight. Further east over the James valley and particularly the Prairie Coteau warmer air aloft continues well into the daytime on Thursday, thus producing fair amounts of sleet and even freezing rain. Amounts nearing a quarter inch look possible, but there are some caveats. The NCEP models are a bit more aggressive with bringing in colder air quicker vs the ECMWF/GEM. So, confidence in snow and ice amounts are moderate at best since am not entirely sure which models are doing the best with lower level thermal progs. With snow amounts forecast generally below warning criteria, will likely go with winter weather advisory out west, and probably east too to cover ice accumulations late tnt and Thursday. .LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Tuesday) Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020 The final shortwave associated with the larger upper trough will begin it`s push east across the forecast area Thursday evening, inducing more precipitation through the Friday morning hours. The placement of the warm air aloft, and when it shifts east and out of the forecast area will have implications on how much additional freezing rain can accumulate across the Coteau/points east Thursday evening before p-type transitions to all snow (surface temperatures by this time should be in the mid to upper 20s). Generally speaking, models are in agreement that this will happen before midnight Thursday night, with any additional icing thereafter coming from freezing drizzle from the occasional loss of ice in the dendritic growth zone. Areas west of the James Thursday evening into Friday morning will see additional snow accumulations, on the order of 1-2 inches or less. Drier air moves in as the shortwave passes by Friday afternoon, and high pressure builds Friday evening. Clear skies and light winds will allow for a good deal of cooling - low temperatures in the teens are possible. After a rebound into the 40s Saturday (still below average) with dry weather, another shortwave ejects northeast across the High Plains Sunday. As a result, more snow/mixed precipitation during the morning hours and rain during the afternoon is possible. This trend of ejecting energy ahead of a large western CONUS upper level trough continues into the first half of the work- week, and so have coinciding low POPs. However, precipitation would be in the form of rain even overnight Mon-Wed with highs in the 60s and lows in the mid-30s to 40s. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning) Issued at 616 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020 VFR skies/vsbys are expected through today across the region, along with scattered showers. For tonight, MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys are expected as a mixed bag of precipitation gradually moves into the region. Icing is possible late tnt at KABR/KATY. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM CDT /10 PM MDT/ this evening to 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ Friday for SDZ003>006-009-010- 015>018-033>037-045-048-051. Winter Storm Watch from Thursday morning through Friday morning for SDZ007-008-011-019>023. MN...Winter Storm Watch from Thursday morning through Friday morning for MNZ039-046. && $$ SHORT TERM...TDK LONG TERM...Lueck AVIATION...TDK
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NWS Aberdeen, SD (ABR) Office Forecast Discussions.
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