184
FXUS63 KABR 132152
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
352 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Colder temperatures and brief chances(20%) of light
  precipitation will be possible tonight into Wednesday as a
  strong cold front moves through the area.

- A 40-70 percent chance of snow is possible Thursday and Friday.
  Accumulations look minimal, but there could be around an inch
  (50-75 percent chance) of snow accumulating up on the Prairie
  Coteau late Thursday into Friday.

- Strong winds will return Thursday through Friday where peak wind
  gusts may range between 40-55 mph. This combined with any
  snowfall could lead to reduced visibility and hazardous weather
  conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Strong northwest winds have been the predominant story weather wise
today. Gusts have persisted in the 25-45 mph range most of the day
with those values on the higher end of that range remaining mostly
confined to isolated parts of central SD and in the downslope areas
of the Prairie Coteau. Parts of central SD have seen light rain at
times, but latest radar returns show that activity quickly moving
south-southeast with only lingering sprinkles or a brief shower
possible across our far south central SD zones through mid-late
afternoon. A leading cold front is beginning to push into far
northeast SD and west central MN delivering the leading edge of a
cooler airmass into those zones along with increasing low clouds.
Sunny to partly cloudy skies have been sandwiched in between from
north central SD into the James Valley and parts of east central SD.
The forecast area has remained in the warm sector today with
afternoon temperatures in the 40s. This will be temporarily coming
to an end tonight as a stronger polar cold front moves into the area.

That front is expected to push into our northeast by mid to late
evening and then slowly but steadily shift south-southwest into
central SD early Wednesday prior to daybreak. Cold air advection
will drop temperatures into the teens to around 20 degrees across
our northeast zones overnight while central SD hangs onto the 30s
until closer to the 09Z-12Z time frame when they will drop into the
20s. Can`t rule out sprinkles/flurries or a brief rain/snow shower
that will accompany and follow the fropa. A strong north to
northwest flow in the low to mid levels will allow for gusty winds
to persist into the overnight hours. Sfc high pressure will begin to
nose into the area Wednesday morning. This will effectively diminish
the winds but also maintain a much cooler air mass. Daytime readings
will be held in the mid teens to around 20 degrees east of the James
Valley. From the JV and points west, highs look to warm into the mid
20s to mid 30s. Lingering sprinkles/flurries will be possible
through the first half of the day across central SD as the sfc front
stalls out and an upper jet streak sits across parts of
western/central SD. Brief upper ridging will traverse the region
late Wednesday into Thursday setting up warm air advection with
return flow on the backside of a sfc high pressure system. This will
boost our daytime highs Thursday back into the upper 30s to mid 40s.
Some WAA induced light precip will be possible the latter half of
Thursday east of the James Valley.

More significant changes are then set to arrive Thursday night into
Friday as a more potent disturbance descends southward out of Canada
into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. This will push a strong
cold front through the area along with increasing our chances for
snow and much windier conditions and colder temperatures. NBM
probabilities of seeing an inch or greater of snowfall on Friday
range from 50-75 percent and confined to mostly parts of northeast
SD and west central MN. Highest probs are concentrated across the
Sisseton Hills region. NBM probabilities of seeing wind gusts
greater than 45 mph on Friday range from 40-80 percent from the
James Valley and points east to 80 to nearly 100 percent west of the
James Valley through central SD. The combination of this wind and
snowfall across our northeast will lead to hazardous wintry weather
conditions. Although the anticipated snowfall doesn`t exceed much
more than 1 inch, blowing snow and reduced visibilities will be
possible, especially across that Prairie Coteau region. Some of the
snow showers in that area could turn convective in nature providing
for the potential of more quick/brief bursts of snowfall in that
area which would only lead to more hazardous travel conditions.
Something certainly to keep track of the next few forecast package
issuances. That system will depart by the start of the weekend and
leave our area with much colder temperatures. Sub-zero wind chills
of 10-20 below zero will be possible across our northeast by late
Friday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1138 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions and gusty northwest winds will prevail through this
afternoon at all terminals. This, despite overcast skies and rain
showers moving through parts of central SD. KPIR will see the
majority of this with light rain chances continuing through the
first half of the afternoon. Sub-VFR cigs will gradually work
into northeast SD this afternoon with KABR/KATY going MVFR late
this afternoon and early evening. This stratus deck will continue
shifting west-southwest and eventually KPIR/KMBG will see MVFR
cigs by mid to late evening tonight. There will be some pockets of
sprinkles/flurries or a brief light rain/snow shower overnight as
a cold front pushes south-southwest through the area. However,
chances are too slim with limited coverage expected to include
mention of it in the TAFS. KABR/KATY will return to VFR
conditions by daybreak Wednesday while KPIR/KMBG remain MVFR
through the end of this TAF cycle. Gusty northwest winds between
25 to 35 knots will persist today and tonight before eventually
diminishing through the morning hours on Wednesday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Vipond
AVIATION...Vipond