337
FXUS63 KABR 302328 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
528 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 50% chance of snow Wednesday morning over northeast
  South Dakota and west central Minnesota. Snow accumulations are
  expected to be less than an inch. Roads may be slick during the
  morning commute as a result of the snow.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 524 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025

Added in sprinkles and flurries east of the James Valley with some
low level saturation in a stratus deck.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 201 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025

Chances for freezing drizzle this morning have since diminished,
leading to dry conditions expected through the rest of this
afternoon into tonight. Strong northwesterly gusts up to 30-35
miles per hour are the main forecast concern this afternoon. With
these strong winds comes some elevated grassland fire danger over
parts of central South Dakota. Atmospheric moisture will help keep
minimum afternoon humidity around 50 percent or greater, helping
to abate some of the concern from the wind. These winds are
expected to diminish with the loss of peak daytime heating this
evening.

A jet streak is expected to move down the front side of the upper-
level ridge in place over the western CONUS Wednesday morning. This
influence will create some chances for snow to develop, clipping the
far northeastern portion of the Aberdeen forecast area. Model
soundings indicate snow development at temperatures warmer than the
DGZ, and are indicative of snow ratios in the vicinity of 10:1, if
not slightly higher. With that in mind, the HREF probabilities are
valid, and they show a 50% chance for measurable snow over parts of
Roberts, Traverse, and Big Stone counties. Increasing to half an
inch gives a 10-20% chance over the same area, with the highest
probabilities located over northern Traverse County in both
instances. These probabilities create the expectation of an overall
low impact event, although roads may become slick during the morning
commute. Once snow moves out by the end of the morning Wednesday,
dry conditions are expected moving forward.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 201 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025

Fairly quiet long term part of the forecast, as we remain under
northwesterly flow aloft, between a ridge over the western CONUS and
a trough over the east. At this point, it appears that most of the
weak shortwaves/clippers that drop southeast through the flow will
stay to the north of us (including Thursday and the weekend). Thus,
the going forecast has no falling precipitation mentioned. The winds
also look pretty light at this time (nothing highlighted in the EC-
Ens EFI data), so not expecting any blowing snow issues either.
Temperatures look to be near normal initially, then warming to
slightly above normal (around 5 degrees above as the western ridge
slides east) as we head into the weekend, but do want to note that
there remains a large spread (10-12 degrees) for most days between
the 25th-75th percentile values. The warmest temps will be in the
south central, due to the lack of snow cover, where temperatures
will likely be 10-15 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 524 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

A MVFR stratus deck in the east will spread into north central SD
on Wednesday while deepening to IFR in the east in the morning.
Improvement is possible across the east in the afternoon, but
confidence is not high given model propensity to clear stratus too
soon.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...20
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...20