Select NOAA-NWS Forecast Office Text Products
(Product availability varies with seasons, forecast office, and weather.)
Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD
To Select Another NWS Office Click on Map or Choose from List
|Select Forecast Office:||Select Product:|
925 FXUS63 KABR 190510 AAC AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1110 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 1107 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2020 See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 06Z TAFs. UPDATE Issued at 802 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2020 Current forecast looks okay. Added Buffalo County to Wind Chill Advisory. Updates are out. UPDATE Issued at 601 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2020 Took down the Blizzard Warning at 6 PM CST, when it was due to expire. Not seeing anything close to 1/4mi visby over the Prairie Coteau of ne SoDak over into wc MN. Travel conditions continue to improve west of the James River valley (except right on/in the lee of the Leola Hills) this evening where sustained winds are down to 15 to 25 mph. The stronger wind speeds/gusts further east in the region will continue to slowly diminish this evening as the pressure gradient relaxes. As a result, will see the 20 to 35 mph sustained winds across the James River valley, and points east, diminishing over the next 3 to 6 hours, and with it, the areas of mainly ground-level blowing/drifting snow. See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night) Issued at 328 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2020 Will need to continue to monitor the latest trends in winds, to see if the current Blizzard Warning for our eastern counties will need to be replaced with a Winter Weather Advisory or some other statement. At this time we`ve seen significant improvements to visibilities to around 6SM or more when gusts diminish to around 30kts or less. 35-40kt winds is still brining visibilities down to 3- 4SM at the airport sites. Area webcams helpful, as well satellite imagery to figure out the areal extent of the blowing/drifting snow hazard. Winds are slowly diminishing across central SD, as well as portions of the James River Valley. Will continue to note the downslope enhancement over/east of the Leola Hills of McPherson County. Looking at the information from the SD DOT, most roads east of a line from Pollock to Gettysburg and Highmore/Miller remain either closed, or with no travel advised. As winds slowly diminish as the surface ridge nears from the northwest. It`s currently stretching from Alberta through eastern MT and northwestern SD. Wind chills across much of the area will fall below -25F, with a few locations near -35 to -40F. Will need to watch temperature trends, and see if any of the current Wind Chill Advisory headlines need to be upped to Wind Chill Warnings. The surface high will continue to build in Sunday, and be across the cwa Sunday night. Have continued to go on the low end of guidance for temperatures Sunday night, but we may need to trend lower. the current forecast calls for temperatures to bottom out in the -5 to - 17F range (lowest from the Missouri River through the Sisseton Hills). .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 328 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2020 The majority of the extended period looks to be dry. The exception will be toward the middle of the week when some light snow may be possible across the southern and eastern portions of the area associated with a system set to track across the Central Plains. The models are not in great agreement with the timing of this system, so for now will just stick with the light snow mention on Wednesday night, with adjustments to the timing and location likely as the time period gets closer. Arctic air will still be in place on Monday, with high temperatures mainly in the single digits, with teens possible west of the Missouri River. Will then see a warming trend begin, with highs in the mid 20s northeast to the lower 40s southwest on Tuesday, and in the 30s to lower 40s on Wednesday. 20s to lower 30s will then be common Thursday, Friday and Saturday. After a chilly night with lows in the single digits below and above zero Monday night, overnight lows will generally be in the teens through the remainder of the period. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night) Issued at 1107 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2020 VFR cigs/visbies should prevail over the next 24 hours as sustained winds continue their gradual draw down to 10 to 20 knots. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Sunday for SDZ003>011-015>023-034-036-037-051. MN...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Sunday for MNZ039-046. && $$ UPDATE...Dorn SHORT TERM...KF LONG TERM...Parkin AVIATION...Dorn
Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Aberdeen, SD (ABR) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)
Products Courtesy of NOAA-NWS
NWS Information Parsing Script by Ken True at Saratoga Weather - WFO and Products Scripts by SE Lincoln Weather.
Mapping by Curly at Michiana Weather and by Tom at My Mishawaka Weather.