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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 011118 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
618 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020

A decent winter-like storm to affect the region through Friday.
However, one more decent day tempwise across the CWA before the
colder air moves in. For today temperatures will again be well above
normal ahead of an advancing sfc front. As the front edges into the
east toward late afternoon, there may be just enough
lift/moisture/instability to support a few showers and possibly even
an isolated thunderstorm over mainly the northeast CWA. Then the
main system kicks out tonight into Thursday, with a follow-on wave
for later on Thursday into Thursday night. For later tonight into
Thursday morning precipitation is expected to spread northeast
across much of the CWA, as strong UVM moves over the region. Decent
H3 divergence coupled with strong mid-level frontogenesis should
provide the lift. HREF snowband probabilities do highlight parts of
central SD for some banding potential overnight. Something for
later shifts to keep an eye on.  Precipitation is expected to start
off as a mix but then gradually transition to mostly snow over the
Missouri valley tonight. Further east over the James valley and
particularly the Prairie Coteau warmer air aloft continues well into
the daytime on Thursday, thus producing fair amounts of sleet and
even freezing rain. Amounts nearing a quarter inch look possible,
but there are some caveats. The NCEP models are a bit more
aggressive with bringing in colder air quicker vs the ECMWF/GEM. So,
confidence in snow and ice amounts are moderate at best since am not
entirely sure which models are doing the best with lower level
thermal progs. With snow amounts forecast generally below warning
criteria, will likely go with winter weather advisory out west, and
probably east too to cover ice accumulations late tnt and Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020

The final shortwave associated with the larger upper trough will
begin it`s push east across the forecast area Thursday evening,
inducing more precipitation through the Friday morning hours. The
placement of the warm air aloft, and when it shifts east and out of
the forecast area will have implications on how much additional
freezing rain can accumulate across the Coteau/points east Thursday
evening before p-type transitions to all snow (surface temperatures
by this time should be in the mid to upper 20s). Generally speaking,
models are in agreement that this will happen before midnight
Thursday night, with any additional icing thereafter coming from
freezing drizzle from the occasional loss of ice in the dendritic
growth zone. Areas west of the James Thursday evening into Friday
morning will see additional snow accumulations, on the order of 1-2
inches or less.

Drier air moves in as the shortwave passes by Friday afternoon, and
high pressure builds Friday evening. Clear skies and light winds
will allow for a good deal of cooling - low temperatures in the
teens are possible. After a rebound into the 40s Saturday (still
below average) with dry weather, another shortwave ejects northeast
across the High Plains Sunday. As a result, more snow/mixed
precipitation during the morning hours and rain during the afternoon
is possible. This trend of ejecting energy ahead of a large western
CONUS upper level trough continues into the first half of the work-
week, and so have coinciding low POPs. However, precipitation would
be in the form of rain even overnight Mon-Wed with highs in the 60s
and lows in the mid-30s to 40s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020

VFR skies/vsbys are expected through today across the region,
along with scattered showers. For tonight, MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys
are expected as a mixed bag of precipitation gradually moves into
the region. Icing is possible late tnt at KABR/KATY.


SD...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM CDT /10 PM MDT/ this evening
     to 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ Friday for SDZ003>006-009-010-

     Winter Storm Watch from Thursday morning through Friday morning
     for SDZ007-008-011-019>023.

MN...Winter Storm Watch from Thursday morning through Friday morning
     for MNZ039-046.




Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Aberdeen, SD (ABR) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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