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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD

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677
FXUS63 KABR 151502 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1002 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1001 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019

Allowed the dense fog advisory to expire this morning as satellite
indicates fog has mostly dissipated across the James Valley.
However, fog will still linger over portions of Codington, Hamlin
and Deuel counties over the next one to two hours, including
Watertown. All areas are expected to be fog-free by noon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019

Forecast challenge is temperature.

Currently, skies are clear, and temperatures range from the mid 50s
to the low 60s across the CWA on light and variable winds.
Satellite, surface obs and area webcams highlight radiation fog
formation is underway across portions of the Dakotas and Minnesota
early this morning while a weak surface ridge of high pressure
continues to slowly work toward the SoDak/MN border. Have issued a
Dense Fog Advisory for several counties across the far eastern and
southeastern portions of the CWA early this morning through a few
hours past sunrise.

Should see more sunshine for a longer period of time today across
the CWA, while low and mid-level WAA really gets going. Breezy
southerly winds should be developing across the region by late in
the day, with a strong low level jet taking over tonight and getting
mixed into the boundary layer on Monday. Not all that impressed with
precipitation potential on Monday. For now, keeping the today
through Monday portion of the 7-day forecast dry. Temperature
guidance is in the right ballpark for today/Monday, supporting high
temperatures in the 80s, and for some areas across the Missouri
River valley into the low 90s on Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019

Still plenty of warm air aloft across the region to start the
extended period, as we open up the period in southwest mid-level
flow. Monday night looks to stay rather mild as southerly breezes
continue through the night. Lows will stay in the 60s. Increased
highs a couple degrees on Tuesday as 850mb temps remain rather warm
and mixing continues with southerly winds. Frontal boundary crosses
the region Tuesday night as a shortwave moves northeast across the
Dakotas. Models keep temps rather mild through the period and
looking at mostly 70s for highs from mid-week onward to the end of
the forecast period.

As for precipitation chances, a 40 knot low-level jet develops
Monday night, with models indicating some potential for showers
along the nose of the jet, or near the SD/MN border. Will maintain
slight chance POPs for the far eastern CWA late Monday night. Precip
also possible with the shortwave and surface boundary passage
Tuesday night. Otherwise, expecting better chances for showers by
the end of the week as a large upper level wave moves into the
northern plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 655 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019

Some IFR/MVFR fog and low stratus, which have developed at the
KABR/KATY terminals, will persist for a few more hours this
morning before conditions become VFR. By 18Z today, all four
terminals are expected to be in good VFR for the remainder of the
TAF valid period. Later tonight, expect some llws to develop
across the region.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Wise
SHORT TERM...Dorn
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...Dorn

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Aberdeen, SD (ABR) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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