229
FXUS63 KABR 291125 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
525 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Northwest winds gusting from 25 to 40 mph will be diminishing
through the morning. Improvements in blowing and drifting snow
expected.

- There is a 40% of snow, mainly Wednesday morning over northeast SD
and west central MN, but at this time, accumulations are expected to
be less than an inch.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 524 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 300 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

As of 09z, all weather hazards have been allowed to expire as snow
has mainly moved out of central and northeastern SD except for some
areas of light flurries, and reduced visibilities from blowing snow
have improved. Winds will continue to decrease this morning, though
stronger gusts over the Prairie Coteau and along the eastern slopes
will take the longest to die back. There is a 30-60% chance for
winds to be up at or over 30mph around 6am, which decreases to 10-
20% by 10am. These winds will continue to cause areas of blowing
snow early this morning that will decrease in intensity through the
morning to patchy blowing snow and drifting snow by mid-morning. In
the lower levels, high surface pressure is moving over central and
northeastern SD this morning, bringing WAA in through Tuesday. This
WAA will help to warm surface temperature, though it will be Tuesday
before we start to really feel those warm temperatures. Today`s high
temperatures will be in the 20s west of the Missouri River and in
the teens to single digits to the east, coldest over west central
MN. Tuesday will warm into the mid 30s to low 40s over central and
northeastern SD.

An upper-level shortwave pushes over SD and MN Tuesday, which helps
to move a surface low pressure through MN Tuesday as a high pressure
sits over far western SD. With central and eastern SD sandwiched
between these two pressures, winds aloft in the lower levels pick up
a bit. However, with not much forcings to get these winds to the
surface, only areas with slightly higher elevation (i.e. Leola Hills
and Prairie Coteau) could see the stronger wind gusts Tuesday
afternoon, with a 30-40% chance for gusts to get up around 30 mph.
These winds could cause patchy blowing and drifting snow in these
areas during the afternoon, though visibilities should not see much
reduction from this.

There are lower chances (5-10% chance) for precipitation from the
surface low to glance over far northeastern SD and west central MN
counties Tuesday morning. Because of the low level WAA over the
area, there is the possibility that this precipitation could be a
freezing drizzle/wintry mix if it does fall. Model soundings over
far northeastern SD show a dry warm layer that the precipitation
will have to fall through during the early morning, which will
likely evaporate the precipitation as it moves through the layer. If
the evaporating precipitation saturates the layer fairly quickly,
then some precipitation might make it to the surface during the
morning hours. Depending on how much the evaporation cools the
layer, it could be cold enough to keep the precipitation as snow or
still have enough warmth to melt the snow and cause freezing
drizzle. This small chance should be kept in mind when looking at
upcoming model runs, as more models as of this forecast are hinting
that something could happen then preciously, though chances are
still low at the moment.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

By 00Z Wednesday we`ll be in between systems. Warmer air with 850mb
temperatures of 0 to 4C will remain over central SD, with 0 to -7C
degree air over northeastern SD and west central MN (lowest over
MN). The contrast becomes greatest by late morning Wednesday, with
surface temperatures showing the contrast with highs near 40 in
Jones County, while in the teens over west central MN.

While flurries or very light precipitation will be possible Tuesday
morning over our far northeastern counties (showing up on a couple
of CAMs), the next chance of measurable precipitation looks to hold
out until mainly Wednesday morning over northeastern SD and west
central MN, in the form of a 40% chance of light snow. Snow to
liquid ratios will be around 10-15:1. With a banded look, it will be
difficult to pin point the exact location of highest
precipitation/snowfall, but at this time it looks to focus on our
west central MN counties with around 1" or less snow. There is
around a 30-40% chance of 1" or more snow over that location, and a
15% chance of 2" or more snow. One thing we`ll need to monitor is
the potential for a wintry mix (freezing drizzle) from around 00-12Z
Wednesday, as noted on the 12Z ENS precipitation type meteograms and
backed by plenty of low level moisture below 800mb. It looks like
snow is most likely, with most of the precipitation from 12-18Z.

Much of the rest of the forecast remains dry with temperatures
moderating back into the 20s and 30s by Friday or Saturday and
continuing through the weekend. Confidence in specific temperatures
remains only moderate at this time given the average 10 degree
spread in the NBM 25th-75th ranges starting Wednesday and continuing
through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 524 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

The gusty northwest winds will continue to decrease through the
morning and shift to be from the west during the day, with KPIR and
KMBG seeing these winds decrease already this morning. KATY could
continue seeing occasional blowing/drifting snow across airport
runways that could reduce visibilities at times into the morning
until the winds decrease. VFR conditions should prevail at KPIR,
KMBG, and KABR through the day, and conditions will improve to VFR
at KATY during the morning.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...12