Select NOAA-NWS Forecast Office Text Products
(Product availability varies with seasons, forecast office, and weather.)
Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD
To Select Another NWS Office Click on Map or Choose from List
|
| Select Forecast Office: | Select Product: |
184 FXUS63 KABR 132152 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 352 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Colder temperatures and brief chances(20%) of light precipitation will be possible tonight into Wednesday as a strong cold front moves through the area. - A 40-70 percent chance of snow is possible Thursday and Friday. Accumulations look minimal, but there could be around an inch (50-75 percent chance) of snow accumulating up on the Prairie Coteau late Thursday into Friday. - Strong winds will return Thursday through Friday where peak wind gusts may range between 40-55 mph. This combined with any snowfall could lead to reduced visibility and hazardous weather conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 351 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026 Strong northwest winds have been the predominant story weather wise today. Gusts have persisted in the 25-45 mph range most of the day with those values on the higher end of that range remaining mostly confined to isolated parts of central SD and in the downslope areas of the Prairie Coteau. Parts of central SD have seen light rain at times, but latest radar returns show that activity quickly moving south-southeast with only lingering sprinkles or a brief shower possible across our far south central SD zones through mid-late afternoon. A leading cold front is beginning to push into far northeast SD and west central MN delivering the leading edge of a cooler airmass into those zones along with increasing low clouds. Sunny to partly cloudy skies have been sandwiched in between from north central SD into the James Valley and parts of east central SD. The forecast area has remained in the warm sector today with afternoon temperatures in the 40s. This will be temporarily coming to an end tonight as a stronger polar cold front moves into the area. That front is expected to push into our northeast by mid to late evening and then slowly but steadily shift south-southwest into central SD early Wednesday prior to daybreak. Cold air advection will drop temperatures into the teens to around 20 degrees across our northeast zones overnight while central SD hangs onto the 30s until closer to the 09Z-12Z time frame when they will drop into the 20s. Can`t rule out sprinkles/flurries or a brief rain/snow shower that will accompany and follow the fropa. A strong north to northwest flow in the low to mid levels will allow for gusty winds to persist into the overnight hours. Sfc high pressure will begin to nose into the area Wednesday morning. This will effectively diminish the winds but also maintain a much cooler air mass. Daytime readings will be held in the mid teens to around 20 degrees east of the James Valley. From the JV and points west, highs look to warm into the mid 20s to mid 30s. Lingering sprinkles/flurries will be possible through the first half of the day across central SD as the sfc front stalls out and an upper jet streak sits across parts of western/central SD. Brief upper ridging will traverse the region late Wednesday into Thursday setting up warm air advection with return flow on the backside of a sfc high pressure system. This will boost our daytime highs Thursday back into the upper 30s to mid 40s. Some WAA induced light precip will be possible the latter half of Thursday east of the James Valley. More significant changes are then set to arrive Thursday night into Friday as a more potent disturbance descends southward out of Canada into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. This will push a strong cold front through the area along with increasing our chances for snow and much windier conditions and colder temperatures. NBM probabilities of seeing an inch or greater of snowfall on Friday range from 50-75 percent and confined to mostly parts of northeast SD and west central MN. Highest probs are concentrated across the Sisseton Hills region. NBM probabilities of seeing wind gusts greater than 45 mph on Friday range from 40-80 percent from the James Valley and points east to 80 to nearly 100 percent west of the James Valley through central SD. The combination of this wind and snowfall across our northeast will lead to hazardous wintry weather conditions. Although the anticipated snowfall doesn`t exceed much more than 1 inch, blowing snow and reduced visibilities will be possible, especially across that Prairie Coteau region. Some of the snow showers in that area could turn convective in nature providing for the potential of more quick/brief bursts of snowfall in that area which would only lead to more hazardous travel conditions. Something certainly to keep track of the next few forecast package issuances. That system will depart by the start of the weekend and leave our area with much colder temperatures. Sub-zero wind chills of 10-20 below zero will be possible across our northeast by late Friday through Saturday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1138 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions and gusty northwest winds will prevail through this afternoon at all terminals. This, despite overcast skies and rain showers moving through parts of central SD. KPIR will see the majority of this with light rain chances continuing through the first half of the afternoon. Sub-VFR cigs will gradually work into northeast SD this afternoon with KABR/KATY going MVFR late this afternoon and early evening. This stratus deck will continue shifting west-southwest and eventually KPIR/KMBG will see MVFR cigs by mid to late evening tonight. There will be some pockets of sprinkles/flurries or a brief light rain/snow shower overnight as a cold front pushes south-southwest through the area. However, chances are too slim with limited coverage expected to include mention of it in the TAFS. KABR/KATY will return to VFR conditions by daybreak Wednesday while KPIR/KMBG remain MVFR through the end of this TAF cycle. Gusty northwest winds between 25 to 35 knots will persist today and tonight before eventually diminishing through the morning hours on Wednesday. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Vipond AVIATION...Vipond |
Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Aberdeen, SD (ABR) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)
Products Courtesy of NOAA-NWS
NWS Information Parsing Script by Ken True at Saratoga Weather - WFO and Products Scripts by SE Lincoln Weather.
Mapping by Curly at Michiana Weather and by Tom at My Mishawaka Weather.