016
FXUS63 KABR 301926
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
126 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below normal temperatures continue through the 7 day forecast,
  interrupted a couple of times by brief warm-ups Tuesday and
  again Thursday. Coldest timeframes appear to be Monday,
  Wednesday and next Sunday with temps 10 to 20 degrees below
  normal. Wind chills as cold as 15 to 25 degrees below zero are
  forecast for Thursday morning and next Sunday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 119 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

At 1pm CST, skies are partly to mostly sunny. Skies have cleared
off across northeast South Dakota/west central Minnesota and a
portion of north central South Dakota. Surface high pressure is
centered over the CWA, so mixing winds to eradicate the low clouds
are rather limited. Temperatures are clinging to single digits to
mid teens across the region on light north to northwest winds
generally less than 10 mph.

Surface high pressure will gradually slide southeast out of the area
tonight, with surface winds responding by becoming south/southwest.
Low clouds across southern/western South Dakota should begin to
advect north-northeastward overnight in response to the changing
pressure/wind direction. The low pressure system lifting out of
Wyoming/Colorado in the morning could end up bringing enough
synoptic-scale lift through the southern half of South Dakota to
deepen the stratus (or saturate enough of the column for a couple of
hours) layer (top of stratus forecast to be in the DGZ around -12C
to -14C) and generate more flurries/very light snow for a couple
of hours from early morning (Pierre area) through mid-day Monday
(Watertown area). Ensemble-based PoPs do not "see" this brief
light snow potential. Will leave it as a game-time decision for
the next mid-shift whether to introduce a small/brief snow PoP.

From Monday afternoon through the end of Monday night, a surface
warm front will be moving into the Dakotas, and low level thermal
progs do show some WAA happening (a non-diurnal temperature trend
perhaps for Monday night?).

The extended forecast is dominated by northwest flow in a positive
PNA pattern (upper ridge western CONUS/upper trof eastern CONUS).
Doubtless, there are occasions when an upper level wave is sweeping
through the region in said upper flow. But, other than Tuesday night
(20-30 percent chance of precipitation), the forecast does not
contain any precipitation mention until day 6 (Friday
night/Saturday). For the most part, the ensemble qpf clusters are
dry and ensemble 500hpa clusters and deterministic GSM`s suggest
limited opportunity for measurable precipitation in the out periods.
Deterministic GSM`s low level thermal advection progs highlight
Tuesday and Thursday/Friday as being potential periods of low level
WAA, while the rest of the period is dominated by neutral air or low
level CAA. Ensemble 850hpa temperature anomalies suggest most of the
period is running near to below normal for temperature. The high
amount of spread in the 25th to 75th temperature percentiles (any
where from 5 degrees to, in many instances, more than 10 degrees of
spread) continues, making it difficult right now to put any
semblance of confidence in the potential for a warm up this
Tuesday and Thursday. Currently, wind chill temperatures are
forecast to dip below -15F Thursday morning and Sunday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1123 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Low ceilings have cleared off at KABR/KATY, so VFR is expected
there for, at least, the next 6 hours. Later tonight, (MVFR/IFR) low
stratus (perhaps some fog, too, at KATY?) is expected to make a
return at these two terminals. MVFR/IFR cigs are over KPIR/KMBG
and are expected to persist for much of the next 24 hours. Perhaps
during the daylight hours on Monday, low clouds clear off and
KPIR/KMBG return to VFR flying weather. Flurries are falling out
of the stratus over central South Dakota (KPIR), and KMBG could
perhaps start reporting -sn prior to 00Z this evening.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...10