683
FXUS63 KABR 181119 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
519 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs will mainly be in the 40s and 50s through next Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 513 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Updated discussion for the 12Z TAFs below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 322 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

As of 3am, current radar shows the band of light to moderate rain
extending along and south of a line from Clark and eastward through
Deuel Counties. So far, current temperatures in this area are
hovering anywhere from 33 degrees at Watertown to 37 degrees at
Huron. Webcams in this area continue to show mainly rain. Did keep
the freezing rain mention over our southeastern CWA, per RAP
soundings and meteograms that are still hinting at the possibility
of light freezing over the next few hours within the transition
period. However, I did limit the ZR grids to 15% making it a
slight chance rather than definite as it was spitting out. Latest
Cams show the precip continuing over our southeastern CWA over
the next few hours before exiting to our southeast by 12Z or so.
HRRR really does not show much in the transition to snow keeping
the ptype more rain or wintry mix at most (seen in the HRRR
sounding), while RAP/NAMNest does indicate a possible changeover
to all snow as soundings are cooler. If we do see a transition to
snow, then maybe one or two tenths in snow accumulation could be
possible on grassy surfaces. With warmer road temps any freezing
rain that does fall should melt, however, bridges/overpasses and
side roads could get slick.

By 12Z, the surface low will be positioned over KS/MO border with a
high pressure system to our northeast, over Ontario. With the region
on the southwestern side of this high dry weather is expected
through the rest of the today and into this evening. As the mid
level low continues to track east, a ridge will build behind it
with the CWA on the northern extent of this ridge this afternoon
and evening. Tonight through Wednesday, this ridge flattens as
weak shortwave energy will track west to east along the ND/SD
border with a stronger shortwave tracking eastward over central
Canada. At the surface, the high will track southward and over the
Great Lakes area by 12Z Wednesday with the region between this
high to our east and an area of low pressure over the northern
Rockies.

With this weak energy, CAMs does indicate light returns tracking
northeast out of WY into ND early Wednesday morning. It does look
like portions of our northwestern CWA could be clipped by light
rain. RAP/Fv3 has this rain tracking more eastward along the ND/SD
border while the other CAMs keep it further north. EC meteograms
indicate less than 10% chance for rain at KABR/8D3 and KMBG about
15%. So I did add slight pops over portions of north central for
early Wednesday morning so show for this potential. Probability of
QPF>0.01" is about 20% over northern Corson through northwestern
McPherson.

Highs for today is forecast to range between the upper 30s to the
upper 40s and lows in the upper 20s to the mid 30s. With the return
flow for Wednesday, temps will warm up, ranging in the upper 40s to
the upper 50s (about 10-15 degrees above average).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 322 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Wednesday evening, we are in zonal flow with a low over California
and a trough making its way out of Canada. Most models don`t show
this trough reaching our area however. Following Thursday, we move
into split flow. as the low from California makes its way across the
southwest. We then move into more of a ridge pattern to end the
period.

At the moment, it doesn`t look like much will happen
during the long term. Temperatures look to be above average by as
much as 15 degrees. Winds look to be rather light until the end of
the period when widespread gusts of 25 mph will be possible.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 513 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

MVFR cigs at KABR and KMBG will increase to VFR cigs early this
morning while KATY will continue through the day into this
evening in MVFR and possibly dipping to IFR overnight through the
end of the TAF period. KPIR has IFR cigs but will gradually
increase to VFR by late this afternoon or early evening. Winds
will remain light through the TAF period, switching to the
south/southeast this afternoon and southerly tonight.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MMM
SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...MMM