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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD

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925
FXUS63 KABR 190510 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1110 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1107 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2020

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 06Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 802 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2020

Current forecast looks okay. Added Buffalo County to Wind Chill
Advisory. Updates are out.

UPDATE Issued at 601 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2020

Took down the Blizzard Warning at 6 PM CST, when it was due to
expire. Not seeing anything close to 1/4mi visby over the Prairie
Coteau of ne SoDak over into wc MN. Travel conditions continue to
improve west of the James River valley (except right on/in the
lee of the Leola Hills) this evening where sustained winds are
down to 15 to 25 mph. The stronger wind speeds/gusts further east
in the region will continue to slowly diminish this evening as
the pressure gradient relaxes. As a result, will see the 20 to 35
mph sustained winds across the James River valley, and points
east, diminishing over the next 3 to 6 hours, and with it, the
areas of mainly ground-level blowing/drifting snow.

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 328 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2020

Will need to continue to monitor the latest trends in winds, to see
if the current Blizzard Warning for our eastern counties will need
to be replaced with a Winter Weather Advisory or some other
statement. At this time we`ve seen significant improvements to
visibilities to around 6SM or more when gusts diminish to around
30kts or less. 35-40kt winds is still brining visibilities down to 3-
4SM at the airport sites. Area webcams helpful, as well satellite
imagery to figure out the areal extent of the blowing/drifting snow
hazard. Winds are slowly diminishing across central SD, as well as
portions of the James River Valley. Will continue to note the
downslope enhancement over/east of the Leola Hills of McPherson
County. Looking at the information from the SD DOT, most roads east
of a line from Pollock to Gettysburg and Highmore/Miller remain
either closed, or with no travel advised.

As winds slowly diminish as the surface ridge nears from the
northwest. It`s currently stretching from Alberta through eastern MT
and northwestern SD. Wind chills across much of the area will fall
below -25F, with a few locations near -35 to -40F. Will need to
watch temperature trends, and see if any of the current Wind Chill
Advisory headlines need to be upped to Wind Chill Warnings. The
surface high will continue to build in Sunday, and be across the cwa
Sunday night. Have continued to go on the low end of guidance for
temperatures Sunday night, but we may need to trend lower. the
current forecast calls for temperatures to bottom out in the -5 to -
17F range (lowest from the Missouri River through the Sisseton
Hills).

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 328 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2020

The majority of the extended period looks to be dry. The exception
will be toward the middle of the week when some light snow may be
possible across the southern and eastern portions of the area
associated with a system set to track across the Central Plains. The
models are not in great agreement with the timing of this system, so
for now will just stick with the light snow mention on Wednesday
night, with adjustments to the timing and location likely as the
time period gets closer.

Arctic air will still be in place on Monday, with high temperatures
mainly in the single digits, with teens possible west of the
Missouri River. Will then see a warming trend begin, with highs in
the mid 20s northeast to the lower 40s southwest on Tuesday, and in
the 30s to lower 40s on Wednesday. 20s to lower 30s will then be
common Thursday, Friday and Saturday. After a chilly night with lows
in the single digits below and above zero Monday night, overnight
lows will generally be in the teens through the remainder of the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1107 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2020

VFR cigs/visbies should prevail over the next 24 hours as sustained
winds continue their gradual draw down to 10 to 20 knots.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Sunday for
     SDZ003>011-015>023-034-036-037-051.

MN...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Sunday for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...Dorn

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Aberdeen, SD (ABR) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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