889
FXUS63 KABR 190725
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
125 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Weak system today brings two rounds of small chances (20-40%) for
mixed precipitation. Light freezing rain possible north of Hwy 12
this morning then again along and north of Hwy 212 this evening,
although minimal impacts expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 124 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the precip forecast today and
tonight. Latest model runs and soundings support two rounds of light
mixed precip dominated by freezing rain from Hwy 12 north. First
round is already stretching into northwest SD as a lee side front
sets up along the Rockies off a low sitting in southern
Saskatchewan. The low slides east through this evening. Temperatures
across northern SD and into eastern SD will remain below freezing
today, but southerly winds gusting 20 to 35 mph will usher in above
0C temps just off the surface. Confidence is pretty high in northern
counties seeing some freezing rain. However, ice accumulations range
from nothing to a couple hundredths. At the moment, highest chances
for a glaze of ice occur with the second round of precip this
evening across far northeast SD into west central MN. Forgoing any
advisory at this time because of the lack of confidence in any
impact.

The associated front exits the region late tonight leaving the
forecast area dry but breezy for Saturday with west to northwest
winds gusting 25 to 35 mph. The winds and lack of snow cover south
of Hwy 14 will result in high grassland fire danger both today and
Saturday. High pressure builds in Saturday night with return flow
setting up on Sunday.

Even with sfc highs and low cycling through SD through next week,
ensembles keep us dry. Next hint for any precip after tonight
doesn`t come around until Thursday.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1105 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast over the next 24 hours. Southerly
winds develop on Friday. It`s a low probability for occurring, but
if precipitation can develop by Friday afternoon as far south as
portions of north central and northeast South Dakota,
precipitation type would be freezing rain or sleet. Additional
light precipitation could be possible Friday evening in the form
of either rain or freezing rain, becoming snow. Precipitation
chances are not high enough to include mention in the TAFs yet. Also,
there is the potential for a few hours of low level wind shear to
make its way across the region Friday afternoon into the evening.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...10