503
FXUS63 KABR 300522
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1122 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Falling snow will continue to end from northwest to southeast
  through early this evening. North winds 15 to 25 mph with
  occasionally higher gusts will continue to produce, mainly
  ground-level, blowing and drifting snow tonight until the winds
  begin diminishing late.

- Below normal temperatures continue through at least the middle
  of next week. Coldest timeframe is Sunday/Monday with temps 15
  to 25 degrees below normal. Wind chills as cold as 10 to 20
  degrees below zero are forecast for Sunday and Monday
  mornings.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 548 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Very light snow continues across far eastern South Dakota with
some lake effect for the Missouri valley showing up on Satellite
and the kelocams. Bufkit suggests a favorable north northwest wind
through the night and possibly even into tomorrow though wind
speeds decrease enough where that moisture will be stuck right in
the vicinity of the river. Otherwise, looking over DOT cams, not
seeing any impacts from blowing snow. Will let the hazards drop at
00Z. See below for an update to the aviation discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 107 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

At 1 pm CST, under a cloudy sky, light snow has ended across much of
central and north central South Dakota, but continues to fall across
northeast South Dakota and west central Minnesota. Winds are out of
the north at 15 to 25 mph with some occasionally higher gusts.
This is causing some, mainly, ground-level blowing and drifting
snow. And, temperatures are holding, mostly, in the mid to upper
teens.

The falling snow will continue to end from west to east across the
remainder of the forecast area by early this evening. Guidance
suggests the clouds will stick around for most of the night. So,
that might help to keep temperatures from free-falling. The wind is
also expected to stay up some (lowest wind speeds over north central
South Dakota) over most of the CWA as surface high pressure builds
into region from the northwest. Sunday and Sunday night will
showcase high pressure (at the surface and aloft) over the region.
So light winds for most of that period. The surface high is forecast
to slip away to the southeast Sunday night, allowing for a light
southerly component wind to develop. Some of the coldest air of the
7-day forecast is progged to advect down into the region
Sunday/Sunday night. And, now that there is widespread coverage of
meaningfully deep snowpack over the northern plains region, will
have to closely monitor each round of low/mid-level WAA and moisture
advection to see how much of a dent can be made in this large snow-
induced cold pool over the northern plains region. Wind chill values
tonight and Sunday night are expected to fall below zero, bottoming
out somewhere between 10F and 20F below zero each night along/north
of U.S. Highway 212.

The extended forecast is dominated by northwest flow in a positive
PNA pattern (upper ridge western CONUS/upper trof eastern CONUS).
Doubtless, there are occasions when an upper level wave is sweeping
through the region in said upper flow. But, other than Tuesday night
(20-30 percent chance of precipitation), the forecast does not
contain any precipitation mention until day 7 (Friday
night/Saturday). For the most part, deterministic GSM`s and the
ensemble qpf clusters and 500hpa height clusters are dry. Ensemble
temperature guidance/anomalies suggests there could be a subtle warm
up to or slightly above normal in the out periods. But there is so
much spread in the 25th to 75th temperature percentiles (any where
from 5 degrees to, in many instances, more than 10 degrees of
spread), it is difficult right now to put any semblance of
confidence in the potential for a warm up next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1120 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

A layer of MVFR cloud cover lingers for most terminals this
evening/overnight. Cant rule out a few intermittent breaks. As
winds shift to southwest cloud cover should erode and shift out
of the area.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...07
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...07