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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD
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000 FXUS63 KABR 170219 AAB AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 919 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 917 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019 Scattered thunderstorms, some strong to severe, continue across the area this evening. Additional development is still expected overnight, possibly in the form of an MCS. No changes made to winds or temperatures at this time. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night) Issued at 345 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019 The stage is being set tonight and early Wednesday for thunderstorms to affect much the CWA. We have an enhanced risk of severe weather west of the James River Valley tonight with a slight risk elsewhere. There will be two short wave troughs from the west responsible for the storm development. All of the operational models and hi-res models point to two areas of development this evening and overnight into Wednesday morning. One area of development will likely be into this evening in north central South Dakota and maybe into northeast South Dakota. The other area of storms will be coming into western South Dakota this evening and spreading east overnight into Wednesday morning. The deep layer wind shear of 40 to 60 knots will be sufficient for supercells with possible very large hail and damaging winds. The second round of storms will likely be a line with straight line wind damage more of a threat as the LLJ increases in advance of it tonight. Therefore, have increased pops overnight into Wednesday morning. The first area will move east Wednesday morning with more development with the second short wave trough Wednesday afternoon and evening mainly in the east. Highs should be in the 80s on Wednesday. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 345 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019 An active weather pattern is expected early in the period with several waves of convection possible. A couple of surface low pressure systems, along with upper level shortwaves will bring periods of thunderstorms, Thursday through Sunday morning. Minor timing and intensity issues among models leads to a lower forecaster confidence with regards to weather and pops. After a warm Thursday, temperatures should remain mostly in the 80s through the rest of the period. Cooler temperatures could be possible early next week as models indicate a significant pattern change with northwest flow aloft developing over the region. A sprawling surface high pressure may finally bring a much needed break from the active weather pattern. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening) Issued at 631 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019 Thunderstorm potential will increase this evening into the overnight hours across the area. Some of the storms will be strong to severe, with very large hail and strong winds expected. See specific TAFs for the best expected timing. The storms will exit the area Wednesday morning. Additional redevelopment is possible across the east Wednesday afternoon. Periods of MVFR cigs and vsbys will be possible with the storms. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Parkin SHORT TERM...Mohr LONG TERM...SD AVIATION...Parkin
Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Aberdeen, SD (ABR) Office Forecast Discussions.
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