482
FXUS63 KABR 091125 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
525 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Weak system today bringing 20-60% chances (highest across north
  central SD) for light rain. Amounts very light and remaining
  under 0.10in for most areas.

- Chances for precipitation (20-40%) Wednesday night into Thursday.
  Confidence on precipitation type is low.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 523 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 256 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Cold front will be dropping south across the CWA this morning while
an area of weak low pressure begins moving eastward across southern
SD. Area of mid-level lift drifts southward into the CWA through the
day while we gradually moisten the column. Although, overall
saturation and available moisture is rather lackluster and still
only expect light amounts of precipitation. Given the mild temps in
the 40s today, looking at rainfall as the predominant precip type,
with perhaps some flakes of snow mixing in this evening. But again,
amounts look to be light with HREF probability of receiving anything
more than 0.10in only around 10 percent or less. So, maybe a few
hundredths at best. Highest chances for measurable (40-60%) are in
place across north central SD, with most other areas generally 10-
30%. And, chances really begin to dwindle even more by this evening.

Surface high pressure begins moving into western SD tonight into
Tuesday, bringing dry conditions. With a mild air mass still in
place over the region on Tuesday (925mb temps +0C to +5C), look for
temps to rise into the upper 30s and 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 256 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

High surface pressure is moving out of SD Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. Behind this high, a low surface pressure moves
into WY Wednesday and then into SD Wednesday night. Over the past
few model runs, the models have come into more agreement of this low
moving into southwestern SD and moving through southern SD Wednesday
night into Thursday. The models still have variability in when and
where precipitation occurs though.

Some models start the precipitation in southwestern SD and move it
east while other models have more moisture aloft in central and
eastern SD to help precipitation develop over those areas. The ECMWF
P-type meteograms show higher chances for precipitation over areas
in eastern SD with most members showing snow occurring. At the same
time, only a few members show rain/freezing rain occurring in
central SD. Some model soundings over northeastern SD have an
inversion aloft Wednesday evening that is warmer than freezing.
Through the evening, that inversion cools as moisture starts to move
in, and by the time there is enough moisture for precipitation to
get to the surface, the temperatures aloft are below freezing and
the precipitation type looks to be snow through Thursday morning.
However, other model soundings show temperatures aloft staying above
freezing through the night and could cause rain/freezing rain to
occur in northeastern SD. An eye will need to be kept on the models
to see if they come to more of a consensus on precipitation type and
timing as we get closer to it occurring. Depending on when and what
type of precipitation occurs, the snowfall amount that could happen
vary. Ensembles show that there is a 15-25% chance for an inch or
more of snow accumulation occurring east of the Prairie Coteau by
Thursday evening. Otherwise, snowfall amounts don`t currently look
to add up to much, though this could change in the upcoming day as
the models come to more agreement.

Higher surface pressure, as well as some drier air aloft, moves in
over the state behind the low Thursday night into Friday. These both
help to keep precipitation out of central and northeastern SD
through the rest of the week. Max temperatures through the week and
the weekend look to stay 10-15 degrees warmer than normal for this
time of the year, while the minimum temperatures are forecast to be
10-20 degrees warmer than normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 523 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

A brief period of MVFR VSBY in BR is possible at KABR at the start
of the TAF period. Otherwise, generally VFR conditions are
expected. A few areas of -RA or even -RASN (this evening) are
possible across northern SD (KABR/KMBG) this afternoon and
evening. Will handle this with a PROB30 group.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...TMT