372
FXUS63 KABR 280705
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
205 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs in the 60s and 70s Today through Monday are 15 to 30
  degrees above normal.

- Winds will shift to south or southwesterly and peak in intensity
  during the late morning. Broadly, wind gusts are expected to
  range between 35 to 45 mph. Higher winds will be over
  northeastern SD, with the favored downslope areas of the
  Sisseton hills at times exceeding 60 mph.

- Very high to extreme Grassland Fire Danger Index for today with
  the dry conditions, mild temperatures and strong winds.

- Next system for Monday night/Tuesday expected to be little more
  than a frontal passage and an isolated light shower or two.
  Widespread moisture unlikely.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Not much overall change to the fire weather situation for today.

In regards to peak winds, NAM BUFKIT profiles still show upper 60kts
in the critical layer around 10am, with the CAMS on average depicting
60+ mph with the NSSL WRF having a high of 74mph also at 10am. Aside
from the obvious high winds associated with downslope conditions in
a very confined portion of the wind advisory, the rest of the area
remains in the NAM BUFKIT 30-40kt range when we do start mixing
down. Might be close for portions of central South Dakota up into
the James valley for a period in the morning but not a long duration
enough to be confident in expanding the advisory, and its tough to
determine how efficiently said winds will mix in general since its a
warm advection regime. ARW/NSSL WRF both have an area of about 50mph
for the eastern Missouri Coteau into the James valley between 5 and
9 am, so will need to monitor for the next few hours whether an
expansion is needed.

As for temperatures, no major changes there. Will continue warmer in
comparison to NBM deterministic given overall favorable wind
direction for deeper mixing. There are some pockets of high clouds
but most of the area should see ideal radiational conditions and
high turnover to heating due to a lack of green-up/ET.

In regards to dewpoints, still looking at a very dry start to the
day, surface dewpoints are in the single digits and teens. CAMS
continue to advertise a plume of 20+ degree dewpoints migrating
out of the west which we can see in obs around the hills. How
quickly that moves in is still in question.

So we have a combination of mild temperatures, but the strongest
winds are earlier in the day, and so is the core of the driest air
which gets slightly moistened later today to complicate the fire
weather concerns. No changes to Red Flag counties regardless.

We are also going to have to monitoring the potential for blowing
dust as soils continue to dry out. Thankfully as of yet, the farmers
generally haven`t been out and taking advantage of the mild and dry
weather, so there is some question as to whether we will have any
source regions this far north. There are some dust/air quality
models that have picked up on the conditions and have highlighted
from western Kansas up through Nebraska and into the east/southeast
of South Dakota.

Dry forecast even with the next system. Current system track is
north of the area, with a cold frontal passage early Tuesday
morning. NAM has a little blip of higher QPF, however other
deterministic guidance shows only a few hundreds.  NBM probability
of exceeding 0.01 is only maxes out between 20 and 30%.

Next system after that is closer to Friday. GFS/EC are treating this
as split flow systems with a low to the north and south. That
generally would limit moisture unfortunately, and we are seeing that
in the probabilities of about 30-40% east of the James for 0.25".

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Increasing southerly winds will take place through the early
morning hours at all terminals. Gusts are expected to range
between 25-35 kts closer to sunrise. Low level wind shear will be
developing by 08Z-09Z at KPIR/KMBG with a south-southwest wind of
40-50 kts expected just off the surface. LLWS will develop closer
to 10Z-13Z at KABR/KATY. The strength of the sfc wind(30-45 kts)
will be enough to negate LLWS by mid to late morning. Winds will
begin diminishing by late afternoon/early evening at all TAF
sites. VFR cigs/vsbys will be the prevailing conditions at all
terminals through this TAF valid period.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for SDZ007-008-011-019>023.

     Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 5 PM CDT this afternoon
     for SDZ007-008-011-019>023.

     Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for SDZ017-018-036-037-048-051.

MN...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...Vipond