897
FXUS63 KABR 140610
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
110 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing south to southeast wind gusts of 35-50 mph today
  will help contribute to patchy to areas of blowing dust along
  with Red Flag Warning conditions.

- A cold front will swing through the area on Thursday switching
winds from a southwest to a northwest direction from west to east
and remain gusty until early evening.

- The combination of low relative humidities and strong winds on
Friday will lead to another day of elevated fire weather conditions.
A Red Flag Warning has been issued for the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 109 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

As of 1 AM CDT, temperatures across the area are in the 50s to
around 60 with winds out of the southwest at around 10-15 mph. Some
areas of central SD have started gusting to 35 mph already this
morning. Winds will spread east today and gust to 35 to 45 mph with
some gusts of 50 mph mainly around the James River and east. Winds
across northern SD Friday (mainly north of Hwy 14) are expected to
increase again to between 30 and 40 mph with some localized gusts to
45 mph along the ND border. This, combined with continued dry
conditions will continue our enhanced fire weather concerns. A Red
Flag Warning is in place starting at 7 AM CDT and continuing through
Friday afternoon for areas south of Hwy 14 and Friday evening north
of Hwy 14.

A low pressure system moves towards the region Saturday and into
western SD Sunday. This will bring our next chance for
precipitation. Expected amounts have been increasing the last couple
days and that trend continues with the chance of more than a quarter
of an inch in the 24 hours ending Monday morning now between 80 and
95% across the forecast area and the chance of an inch or more at 40
to 60 percent east of the Missouri River for the same time period.
This is expected to be the time of heaviest rainfall. If this much
precipitation pans out, it may be enough to reduce fire danger
concerns for at least a couple days. There is also a chance for some
storms with this rain, although it is hard to say yet if the storms
will be severe. Rain continues into the overnight Monday, but only a
tenth of an inch or so additional precipitation is expected.
Following the low, highs Monday and Tuesday are expected to be
rather significantly below average for this time of year, as much as
15 to 20 degrees. High temps recover to around normal for the end of
the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through Thursday night. Southeast
winds shift to the west behind a passing dry front then diminish
in the evening. Winds will gust 30 to 40 kts at all sites.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning from 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ this morning to 9 PM
     CDT /8 PM MDT/ Friday for SDZ003>011-015>017-021.
     Red Flag Warning from 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ this morning to 4 PM
     CDT /3 PM MDT/ Friday for SDZ018>020-022-023-033>037-045-
     048-051.
MN...Red Flag Warning from 7 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT Friday for
     MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...20