115
FXUS63 KABR 110733
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
233 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler temperatures take hold today behind a cold front passing
through. Expect highs in the mid 50s to upper 60s through at least
the middle of the week. These temperatures are near mid-October
normals.

- Some post-frontal showers linger through Monday. Generally less
than a tenth of an inch is expected, but localized areas along the
North Dakota/South Dakota border may see a tenth to a quarter of an
inch of rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

A cold front continues to progress across the forecast area early
this morning. Behind the front, winds turn northerly, and will gust
up to 20 to 30 miles per hour across all but parts of northeastern
South Dakota and western Minnesota this afternoon. Cooler
temperatures also take hold behind the front, dropping down to near
mid-October normals through at least the middle of the week (highs
in the upper 50s to 60s). Some post-frontal showers will linger
through Monday, with a 40-80% chance to see measurable rainfall
across the forecast area, increasing from south to north. Along the
border with North Dakota (where model guidance shows a higher degree
of confidence in multiple rounds of light showers passing through on
Monday), rainfall totals could reach as high as a tenth to perhaps a
quarter of an inch at the most.

High pressure will take hold of the region for the start of the work
week, continuing through Wednesday. With this high pressure
overhead, winds will progressively decrease, becoming light by the
time the high pressure center moves overhead late Tuesday into
Wednesday. Strong humidity recovery and temperatures dropping into
the mid-30s Tuesday and Wednesday mornings may bring about chances
for frost, particularly on Wednesday.

Mid- to late-week, the upper-level low over the western CONUS will
move up into the Northern Plains, bringing the next chances for rain
across the region. Latest ensemble runs have backed off a bit on the
rainfall totals over the Aberdeen forecast area, but there is still
a fair degree of spread. Lower end 25th percentiles show only a few
hundredths, while 75th percentile values fall to around an inch
through Friday morning. This is likely in part due to a somewhat
significant southwesterly shift in the axis of heaviest rainfall
totals. Probability to see half an inch of rain now sits at 20-45%,
increasing moving from northwest to southeast. This is down from 50-
70% across the forecast area 24 hours ago, so will continue to keep
an eye on if this trend downward continues.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

A cold front is slowly making its way southeast across the
region, with winds gradually switching to the north-northeast.
This front will eventually move through KATY later in the
morning. Behind the front, lowering clouds can be expected
through the TAF period, with MVFR CIGs forecast at KMBG and KABR
as the TAF period wears on. Low-level wind shear (LLWS)
lingering in the KATY region still towards the beginning of the
TAF period and inserted mention of this into the TAF there.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...TMT