467
FXUS63 KABR 031911
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
211 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a Slight Risk (2 of 5) for severe weather today over
  the Missouri River Valley. Main hazards will be large hail of
  1 to 2 inches in diameter and wind gusts of 60 to 75 miles per
  hour.

- Near to above normal temperatures are expected throughout the seven
  day forecast, with the warmest readings, possibly as much as
  10 degrees above normal, running up into the low 90s over the
  weekend and into the start of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

The short term portion of the forecast is complex and challenging.
Continuous convection from central SD northwest into southeast
Montana from this morning has caused an abundance of cloud cover
over the western half of the CWA. Marginally strong severe developed
over east-central SD earlier this morning within a zone of modest
instability ahead of a surface low pressure system.

The current thinking is more robust convective develop later this
afternoon over the Black Hills, and perhaps northeastern Wyoming
where there are remnants of outflow boundaries and at least some
destabilization. The storms may organize into a bowing MCS and track
south-east during the evening and overnight hours. Damaging winds
and hail will be the main threats with the bowing MCS. It is
entirely possible these storms track south of this CWA, or perhaps
click the southwest portion. A bit further northern track may cause
localized flooding in Jones, Lyman, and Stanley counties due to
recent heavy rainfall.

Another scenario to monitor is convection across southwestern ND. A
few CAMS suggest this convection will track mostly eastward, mainly
north of the state line. However, a slight deviation southward will
lead to more widespread coverage. Overall, went conservative on pops
tonight into Saturday morning, mainly due to the current state of
the and some support from CAMS.

As of now, Saturday and Sunday appears mostly dry with perhaps a few
showers and storms over the eastern CWA on Saturday. The weather
pattern overall remains active through next week with additional
rounds of thunderstorms. Seasonal temperatures are expected with
highs in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

While prevailing VFR conditions are expected, showers and
thunderstorms may limit flying conditions. KPIR has the best
potential of being impacted by thunderstorms later this
afternoon and evening. Overall, have reduced the mention of
thunderstorms in the valid taf set.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
DISCUSSION...SD
AVIATION...SD