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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD
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000 FXUS63 KABR 130155 AAB AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 855 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 848 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020 There`s a pretty good EML/mid-level capping inversion in place across the western CWA right now. Still expecting convection to develop along the boundary approaching from the west/northwest overnight when the low level jet develops. But, most of this activity should stay off to the northwest in NoDak, and move off to the northeast overnight. This CWA should stay mainly dry overnight. UPDATE Issued at 639 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020 See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night) Issued at 318 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020 The main challenge in the short term period is thunderstorm chances Monday afternoon and Monday night. Surface high pressure will exit the region to the east tonight ahead of an approaching low pressure system and associated frontal boundary. The front will slowly track across the state on Monday, with breezy winds ushering warm and humid air up into the region. This will set up fairly unstable conditions across the east by mid to late afternoon. There will be some shear, around 30-40 knots, in this area as well, but the better area of shear will lag behind the front. Will also see a fairly strong CAP during the afternoon hours, with H7 temps of +12 to +14 deg C. Therefore, expect convection may have a hard time getting going Monday afternoon, but may see a better chance of some post frontal general shower and thunderstorm activity Monday night as the CAP weakens and a weak LLJ develops over the western and central part of the state. The entire CWA is in the SPC risk area, Marginal Risk west and Slight Risk east, but the afternoon capping inversion will likely be the deciding factor for convective development. Will keep POPs a bit lower in the afternoon because of this, then increase them into the high chance category Monday night. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 60s, with highs on Monday in the 80s to lower 90s. Lows on Monday night will range from the mid 50s west to the lower 60s east. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 318 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020 For the start of the out period, some lingering convection may remain in the region early Tuesday with the passage of a cold front, especially along the I-29 corridor and parts of southern SD. As the day goes on though, surface high pressure begins to move into the state and sets up a dry and seasonal middle of the week. Upper level pattern starts out mostly zonal mid-week, but transitions to northwest flow as an upper ridge moves eastward out of the Rockies. This will set up a warming trend approaching the weekend. NAEFS 850mb temps are expected in the 90th percentile or greater for Friday and Saturday, where we may see temps reach into the 90s. Also approaching the weekend models do hint at a few shots of s/w energy riding over the northwest flow , bringing continued chances for showers/storms moving into this coming weekend. NAEFS QPF increases in the upper 90 percentiles by Fri/Sat, which looks to be the next best chance for precip after the system earlier this week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening) Issued at 639 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Good VFR conditions are forecast to prevail across the area through the TAF valid period. ***Construction to improve the taxiway for runway 13 at the KPIR terminal may cause an occasional temporary visibility reduction due to blowing dust (bldu), mainly during daytime hours UFN.*** && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Dorn SHORT TERM...Parkin LONG TERM...Dye AVIATION...Dorn
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NWS Aberdeen, SD (ABR) Office Forecast Discussions.
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