542
FXUS63 KABR 042325 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
625 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather this
evening over eastern South Dakota. The main threat will be wind
gusts of 60 miles per hour and one inch hail.

- Another Marginal Risk is in place for storms developing Monday
afternoon and evening. The main severe threats during that time
frame will be hail of 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts of 60 to 70
miles per hour.

- Temperatures roughly 5 to 10 degrees above normal (highs in the
upper 80s to low 90s) are expected through at least the start of
next week. There is potential for a cooldown closer to normal (highs
in the mid 80s) by mid-week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Updated the forecast this evening to increase pops between the
Missouri and James River valley where widespread storms have
developed this afternoon.

Updated aviation discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Weak troughing is currently in place across the northern plains with
overall weak mid-level impulses traversing eastward. A few
storms, marginally strong, have developed or continue to develop
over central ND, north central MN, NW Iowa, and south central
SD. The reason for mentioning these storm areas is to highlight
the low forecaster confidence with regards to pops and
thunderstorms the rest of the afternoon and evening. Cams have
mostly failed to capture the morning convection across Jones
county, where MRMS indicated subsevere hail at times.

CAMS do show convection developing later this afternoon and evening
over southeastern ND and northeastern SD, where a weak frontal
boundary, mostly uncapped environment is located. Meso analysis from
SPC shows 2K J/kg of ML cape, with extremely limited effective
and deep layer shear. The environment is supportive of pulse
thunderstorms, with marginal to low end severe hail and winds
possible. With locations along and east of the James River in
the Marginal Risk today, have kept 20-30 pop in the forecast
through this afternoon and evening. The NCAR ensemble CAM viewer
suggest a low severe potential near Sisseton and east into
Minnesota.

Later tonight through Sunday night should be mostly dry with above
average temperatures. There could be patchy to areas of fog early
Sunday morning. The weather pattern becomes active again early next
week with a broad upper level trough over the southern Canadian
prairies, with increasing LLM into the forecast area. Surface based
cap values above 2K J/kg, modest deep layer shear should support
strong to severe storms, primarily Monday evening and through the
overnight hours. Upper level capping may limit convection during the
daytime hours in this CWA. The upper level trough slowly crosses the
region through midweek with additional chances for severe weather.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Widespread thunderstorm activity has developed between the James
and Missouri River Valley. As of now, the storms appear to be
missing all terminals. Confidence for thunderstorms impacting
any particular taf site is low, thus have kept the mention out
of the tafs. There could be patchy to areas of fog during the
morning hours on Sunday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...17
DISCUSSION...17
AVIATION...17