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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD
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164 FXUS63 KABR 180837 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 337 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Winds increase today out of the northwest, with gusts of 30 to 40 mph. The winds will cause elevated fire danger over portions of central and north central South Dakota. - Lows for tonight will be near or at freezing ranging in the 30s. - Strong winds and elevated fire danger return Monday. Probabilities of wind gusts more than 45 mph is 50-90 percent, highest over central SD. - Seasonal temperatures this weekend will be followed by slightly cooler readings early next week. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/... Issued at 336 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 An upper level trough and surface cold front is currently impacting the area with light showers over northwest South Dakota. The trough will continue progressing across the region today, with light showers spreading across the CWA. The probability of seeing 0.01 inches of QPF per the NBM exceeds 45 percent over a good portion of the CWA. The highest probability is over north central and central SD where the chance is over 60 percent. The higher potential lines up with deterministic models area of frontogenesis. ECAM and HREF suggest the pcpn will push east of the CWA between 18 and 21Z. Behind the pcpn, the area will see increasing northwesterly winds with gusts of 25 to 40 mph expected. Six hour pressure rises have increased some compared to this time yesterday, but still mostly impacting western and south central South Dakota today. Buffer soundings still support peak wind gusts reaching 30 to 35 knots at times, or sub-adverisory levels. The winds will subside later this evening and through the overnight hours. Favorable conditions should allow low temperatures to drop below 32 degrees F by Sunday morning over a good portion of the CWA. Southerly winds developing on Sunday will bring warmer temperatures into the area with highs reaching the mid 50s, to the mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 336 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 The upper flow pattern will feature an incoming upper trough from the west that will replace a departing upper ridge to the east as this period begins late Sunday into early Monday. This upper trough will spawn a sfc low pressure system that will track into the Dakotas on Monday. An associated strong cold front is progged to set off a 30-60 percent chance of shower activity that will primarily affect our northern zones during the day. Moisture still looks to remain scant with this system, so only expecting light rain shower activity that may produce upward of a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch of rainfall. The bigger story this system will deliver will be strong northwest winds. Strong cold air advection will kick in as the front tracks across the area Monday morning with 850mb temperatures falling into a range between 0C and +5C during the day and then eventually going subzero Monday night into Tuesday morning. The combination of this CAA along with pressure rises and daytime mixing will lead to a period of strong winds. NBM suggests probabilities of seeing wind gusts greater than 45 mph range from 50- 90 percent across most of our SD zones on Monday with the highest wind gust probs west of the James Valley into central and western SD. In fact, probabilities of seeing winds greater than 55 mph run about 50-70 percent west of the Missouri River. Will have to continue to monitor these trends for the potential need for wind headlines. A tight gradient is maintained Monday night into Tuesday, especially from the James Valley and point east. So, anticipate that gusty northwest winds will persist in these areas during the daytime hours. Not expecting nearly as strong of winds compared to Monday, but gusts could still reach a 25-35 mph range especially across the Prairie Coteau. As the low pressure system departs from northern MN into the western Great Lakes, some wrap around light showers will be possible across our eastern zones Monday night. Sfc high pressure is then progged to take hold going through midweek time frame. Dry conditions are expected to prevail as temperatures remain seasonal. Once that high drifts farther east late in the period, a warming trend is expected as WAA commences and temperature readings go back above normal the latter half of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions for the most part. We could see some light showers moving through in the morning to mid day hours for all terminals, but impacts should be minimal/temporary and limited to brief MVFR CIGS/VISBY. Winds remain predominantly westerly and increase during the day.&& .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SD LONG TERM...Vipond AVIATION...SD |
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NWS Aberdeen, SD (ABR) Office Forecast Discussions.
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