543
FXUS63 KABR 122014
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
314 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A clipper system brings strong winds to the area late this
  afternoon and evening. Wind gusts will mainly range from 50 to
  60 mph range with stronger gusts in the wake of a cold front
  with magnitudes ranging from 65-80 mph A High Wind Warning has
  been issued for all of central/north central and northeast SD as
  well as western MN.

- Mild temperatures and dry conditions in combination with the
  very strong winds will raise the Grassland Fire Danger into the
  Very High to Extreme category for late this afternoon. A Red
  Flag Warning remains in in effect until mid evening tonight.

- A Colorado Low will bring snow for the weekend. The probability
  of exceeding 6 inches of snowfall has increased to 50 to 80%
  across the forecast area. Winds of 30 to 40 mph will lead to
  blowing/drifting snow.

- Very cold air follows with temperatures Sunday into Monday some 15
  to 25 degrees below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

A plethora of cloud cover and scattered showers have been
commonplace across the CWA. The clipper like low pressure system is
currently poised and centered near Minot, ND with a warm front
extending southeast into central SD and a cold front draped west-
southwest from the low across southwest ND into southeast MT. These
frontal boundaries will continue to track east-southeast across this
forecast area the remainder of this afternoon as the low is progged
to shift into eastern ND and northern MN this evening. Scattered
showers and some thunderstorms will be possible through late this
afternoon and early evening. Weak instability developing out ahead
of the cold front may be enough to generate a few thunderstorms or
at the very least some lightning and claps of thunder and some brief
heavier showers. SPC continues to highlight north central and
northeast SD and west central MN for a Marginal Risk(level 1 of 5)
for severe weather. Confidence in strong winds associated with any
convection remain low just for the fact that the synoptic setup is
already going to be generating wind gusts in excess of 60 kts. The
very strong winds will ultimately be the main concern later today
into tonight. Sfc obs across western SD/ND already have seen wind
gust range between 60-80+ mph. 1/2 KM wind progs continue to
generate a corridor of 50-65 kt winds across a good portion of the
forecast area from about mid-late afternoon across central SD to
early this evening through the first half of the overnight hours
across northeast SD and west central MN. The main message in all of
this is that damaging winds will be possible in this forecast area
late this afternoon into tonight. A High Wind Warning remains in
effect until late tonight for central SD and until early Friday
morning from the James Valley and points east.

Sfc high pressure will begin to build into the forecast area on
Friday. Breezy northwest winds will diminish during the morning
hours, more noticeably on the eastern side of our CWA where wind
gusts could still range between 25-35 mph through the first half of
the morning hours. Cold air advection will drive in a cooler, below
normal air mass with daytime temperatures expected to hold in the
30s. After a relatively quiet day weather-wise, conditions will
start to deteriorate across central SD as early as late
afternoon/early evening Friday as the next storm system organizes to
the west.

Guidance continues to indicate an anomalous low pressure system
developing across the Northern High Plains early Saturday before
diving southeast across the Front Range of the Rockies and into
portions of the Northern and Central Plains by Saturday night into
Sunday. Still some things to iron out in terms of timing and track
of the this low pressure system. Both deterministic and ensemble
members have a general idea of this system tracking southeast across
WY/NE on Saturday night and early Sunday and then hooking back
toward the northeast across IA/MO and into IL and the western Great
Lakes by Sunday night into early Monday. Probabilities of seeing at
least 6 inches or more of snow are highest basically across the
central portion of the forecast area. There`s a 60-80 percent chance
of this occurring from central SD into northeast/east-central SD and
west central MN. Lower probs exist on our far northern fringe of
zones and far southern fringe of zones. Wind speeds associated with
this system are expected to range at least as high as 30-40 mph
which will potentially lead to blizzard like conditions are a good
portion of this forecast area. This system will pull away and wind
down by Sunday night for most of this CWA. Then cold air advection
takes hold and drives a much colder and below normal air mass into
the region. With a fresh blanket of snow, temperatures should not
have any issues reaching the single digits above and below zero by
Monday and Tuesday mornings. Long range outlooks do indicate though
that a warming trend is anticipated by the latter half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will be the general rule at all terminals through
this TAF cycle, aside from the time periods where rain shower
activity will be moving through the area this afternoon into early
this evening. MVFR cigs/vsbys will be possible in light to
moderate rain showers. MVFR cigs will be more probable at KATY
late this evening through early Friday morning as "wrap-around"
cloud cover overtakes northeast SD from a departing clipper low
across northern MN.

Strong west to northwest winds will be the main concern at all
terminals this afternoon into tonight. Winds just off the deck
will be strong enough to produce low level wind shear from mid
afternoon through early this evening at KMBG/KABR/KATY TAF sites.
Sfc wind speeds will exceed 35-40 knots and gusts will exceed 60
knots late this afternoon at KPIR/KMBG and during the first half
of the evening at KABR/KATY. Winds will noticeably diminish toward
the end of this forecast period or mid to late morning Friday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Friday for
     SDZ007-008-011-019>023.

     Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday
     evening for SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
     SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051.

     High Wind Warning until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Friday for
     SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051.

     High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM CDT Friday for
     SDZ006-018.

MN...High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Friday for
     MNZ039-046.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM CDT
     Friday for MNZ039-046.

     Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday
     evening for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Vipond
AVIATION...Vipond