905
FXUS63 KABR 041918
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
118 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures Thursday and Friday will be near to as much as 7
  or 8 degrees below normal for early November.

- Temperatures Saturday through next Wednesday will warm up to 5
  to 15 degrees above normal for early November.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

At 1 PM CST, skies are becoming partly sunny across central South
Dakota, but remain cloudy/overcast across northeast South Dakota
into west central Minnesota. TROWAL-forced rain bands continue to
persist and rotate south through the region, mainly centered down
the I-29 corridor and Prairie Coteau, on the backside of the
large/broad occluded upper low churning over Minnesota. Winds are
out of the northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph and
temperatures were mainly in the 40s to low 50s.

After this last rainband over the eastern/southeastern forecast
zones departs the CWA, the forecast is dry for the entire 7-day
forecast. Upper level ridging dominates the steering flow winds
aloft for the majority of the forecast period. Surface high pressure
builds over region tonight, resulting in some fog potential,
particularly over portions of the CWA that clear off tonight. Short
term guidance is developing another area of low clouds over southern
Canada and North Dakota/northern Minnesota tonight and bringing it
southward into the CWA mainly between 08Z and 15Z Thursday. Unsure
what will happen to any areas of fog (probably dissipate) trying to
develop, if/once low clouds spread over it late tonight/early
Thursday morning.

Temperatures will remain near normal through Friday. But the low
level thermal advection pattern is forecast to transition to a WAA
pattern Friday afternoon/evening which persists through the weekend.
Warmer (above normal) temperatures then look to hold through the
middle of next week. Wind speeds and afternoon relative humidity
values appear to behave themselves on the fire weather forecast side
of things, as well, for the time being. Not a whole lot to right
home about just now in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1124 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

IFR conditions continue at KATY in off and on light rain, with
intermittent drizzle happening in between the periods of light
rain. KPIR, KMBG and KABR have improved to VFR flying weather.
It`s possible that KATY may join the VFR crowd by late this
evening, if these low clouds continue to move away with the
light rain. Whichever TAF sites end up clearing off this
evening/overnight, these are the terminals carrying the greatest
potential for some light fog/frost. Diminishing winds and
copious amounts of surface/near surface moisture from the recent
rains set the table for light fog/frost development overnight.
REFS guidance indicates there is potential for another round of
sub-VFR cigs to push south into the region late tonight/early
Thursday morning, potentially impacting KMBG, KABR and KATY.
Throughout the TAF valid period, north winds will gradually
diminish, going from 15 to 25 knots down to 5 to 15 knots, with
the lighter winds out over the Missouri River valley and higher
winds out along the border of the Dakotas and Minnesota.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...10