818
FXUS63 KABR 141147 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
647 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Overnight lows could drop below the freezing mark through
  this week, mainly early this morning and early Friday morning.
  Areas that don`t get to freezing may still see frost
  development. Frost/Freeze headlines are in place early this
  morning for central and north central South Dakota.

- Rain will be possible tonight into Thursday. Central South
  Dakota can generally expect around a tenth to a quarter of an
  inch of accumulation through Thursday, while elsewhere will
  see less than a tenth of an inch.

- Northwest winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph will
  be possible Thursday afternoon and evening across central and
  north central South Dakota. These winds combined with drier
  air will also create elevated fire weather concerns Thursday
  afternoon.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 642 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Stratus continues to ooze southward across northern SD. Have
chipped away a couple more counties from the Freeze Warning as
clouds have prevented temps from getting below 32 degrees. Where
skies are clear, temps have fallen into the upper 20s to around
32 degrees and will leave current headlines in place there. Made
adjustments to sky grids to account for placement of the stratus
deck.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

A Freeze Warning and Frost Advisory remain in place early this
morning, and are set to run through 14Z. As of ~06Z, sites over
central and portions of north central South Dakota are evolving as
expected, and there are some sites reporting temperatures near
freezing already. The main questions for these headlines now are
Brown, Spink, McPherson, and Edmunds Counties. A stratus deck has
been in place over Brown County this morning, and showing no signs
of moving out, meaning that the area will have great difficulty
reaching 32 degrees this morning. The other three aforementioned
counties have been able to cool off a bit more, but this same
stratus deck is moving overhead, and may cut off the ability to cool
further in that area too. As of the time of issuance of this
discussion the Warnings will remain in place, but a possible early
cancellation will be on the table for those counties depending on
how trends evolve this morning.

A closed upper-level low will move up into the region late today and
bring the next chances for rain. A last-minute northward shift in
the track has increased expected rainfall totals, particularly over
central South Dakota. Expectations in that area are now for a tenth
to a quarter of an inch, with perhaps some localized values greater
than a quarter of an inch along and south of I-90. Rainfall values
will drop off moving north, meaning that the rest of South Dakota
and western Minnesota will still likely see only a few hundredths at
best.

A cold front will move across the region early Thursday, behind
which winds will turn northwesterly and increase as the pressure
gradient tightens. Latest NBM probabilities for gusts reaching Wind
Advisory criteria (45 miles per hour or greater) reach up to 60-80%
over central and north central South Dakota. Under a cold air
advection regime, NBM biases are to under forecast wind speeds,
which only increases confidence for the potential for a Wind
Advisory on Thursday. Dew points drop about 10-15 degrees behind the
front, ushering in drier air during the afternoon. With the strong
wind and dry air combination in place, Grassland Fire Danger will be
pushed up to High to Very High over central and north central South
Dakota. Humidity values will still remain at 35-45 percent in that
area even with the drier airmass, so a Red Flag Warning does not
appear to be on the table Thursday.

Slightly warmer temperatures are expected overnight tonight and into
Thursday morning due to cloud cover limiting radiational cooling.
Parts of northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota may dip
down to 36 degrees and facilitate frost development, but confidence
in that scenario is somewhat low. Friday morning will see much
clearer skies along with some lingering weak cold air advection
lingering overnight, both of which will facilitate the return of sub-
freezing temperatures over much of the region (with the best chances
being over north central and parts of northeastern South Dakota).
Areas that do not reach freezing will likely be cold enough to see
frost, although there is still some question as to whether or not
humidity will fully recover Friday morning.

Over the weekend and into next week, signal is strong for an upper-
level ridge to move overhead. 850mb temperatures of 15-20 degrees
Celsius will be in place over the weekend as a result, which is
above the 90th percentile for this time of year. Expect those above
normal temperatures to translate to the surface, at least into the
upper 60s to 70s across the forecast area. In terms of
precipitation, dry conditions are expected while the ridge remains
over the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 642 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

MVFR CIGs will continue to affect KABR and KATY this morning and
are forecast to eventually erode/depart the area later in the
afternoon. Across KMBG/KPIR, FG/BR is nearby or affecting the
terminals and expect this to continue through mid morning. Later
this evening and overnight, -SHRA will move northward into the
region, but should remain scattered in nature except perhaps
KPIR where better rainfall chances exist.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for
     SDZ003-009-015-016.
     Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for
     SDZ017-018-033>037-045-048-051.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...TMT