607
FXUS63 KABR 100814
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
214 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty downsloping winds along the eastern slopes of the Coteau
  possible tonight into the overnight, with gusts of 35 to
  potentially 45 mph.

- Above normal temperatures return for the Tuesday - Friday
  timeframe.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 214 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Satellite indicates low stratus continuing to stream down from Canada
and over locations mainly along and east of the James River into
west central MN. Current temps as of 2am are quite chilly ranging
from 9 degrees at KABR to the mid 20s at Sisseton, who is under the
thicker stratus deck. Both HREF/NBM do have this low stratus
continuing through the morning with additional mid to high clouds
passing west to east across the CWA into the afternoon. Surface high
pressure will continue to exit the region to the south as this
shortwave (and its surface low) will track across Canada today
through Tuesday. Its warm front will track eastward across the CWA
this evening into Tuesday morning and its cold front tracking
northwest to southeast over the CWA quickly behind, with winds
turning northwest behind it, with the eastern CWA behind the cold
front/surface trough by Tuesday midday. Other than increasing clouds
this evening with the system, no precip is expected per HREF
members/NBM. Clouds will be on the decrease on the backside of the
system through the day Tuesday and northwest flow aloft within a
+PNA pattern.

With the exiting high and surface low to our northwest, the pressure
gradient will increase with a difference of ~10mb across the CWA
this afternoon. Winds will turn southerly with the incoming surface
trough, with sustained winds between 10-20kts and gusts of 20-30kts,
highest over north central SD and portions of Lyman County. With
more of a southwest component James River and eastward, gusty
downsloping winds look possible along the eastern slopes of the
Coteau between ~01-09Z. This looks to be more of a marginal event,
so did blend in higher guidance to show for this, with gusts up to
45 mph possible, then diminishing as winds turn more westerly. It
was interesting to note that mean gusts per HREF ranges from 40 to
isolated areas of 50mph. This seemed to be quite high with
contaminated data. Comparing max 24hr gusts between NBM4.3 and 5.0
both showed gusts of 40kts. Behind the cold front, per slight
CAA/dry air and pressure rises, winds look to increase again out of
the northwest with gusts of 20-30kts, highest over central SD
Tuesday afternoon. With marginal gusty winds today and Tuesday and
drier fuels, the Grassland Fire Danger Index is high over portions
of central SD.

With the incoming warmer air mass we will see a bit of this warmup,
mainly west of the Mo River, with highs in the upper 40s to the low
50s. Highs east of the MO will still be chilly (but warmer) in the
mid to upper 30s to lower 40s. The only thing that could hinder
these highs is this streamer of stratus. If it lingers longer than
guidance, this would decrease highs James River and eastward. As
this WAA filters eastward tonight with the warm front, we will have
a non diurnal temp temp trend as temps will start out cooler (upper
20s to the upper 30s/40) around 00-01Z then gradually warm through
the night with temps by 12Z mainly in the 30s to mid 40s. With the
further eastward track of this warmer air on the downstream side of
the ridge, highs for Tuesday will range in the 50s to possibly 60,
warmest over south central SD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 214 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Clipper system that brought warmer temperatures back into the region
Tuesday is gone, with cooler but still above average 850mb
temperatures, with a northeast to southwest gradient. 1/2km winds
top out around 35kts across the northeast through the morning
Wednesday, but under neutral advection limiting mixing and
intensity. This gradient remains stationary Tuesday night through
Wednesday night with a high pressure ridge overhead. That shifts
east Thursday morning but southeasterly surface flow will also limit
mixing/warming to some extent. The core of the warm air moves
overhead Friday/Friday night with 850mb temperatures just a scooch
below 2 standard deviations. NBM highs currently reside about 10F
below daily records. We do have some record warm low temperatures in
the NBM Friday night, but with cooler air that follows for Saturday
evening its probably not obtainable. So in regards to the cold air
that follows for Saturday/Saturday night, deterministic guidance is
pretty inconclusive, owing to a "not that great a consensus" in each
models handling of the upper pattern. From the 00Z suite, its
looking better however, with a split flow or cut-off 4-Corners
system and a Northern Plains trough.  POPs have increased in the NBM
but remain low and overly broad, mainly because as mentioned above
there is only recently better consensus and thats not a pattern
where 1) we typically get much overall moisture and 2) model
confidence on timing varies running up to these low QPF events.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1130 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

An MVFR stratus deck extends south from eastern North Dakota down
through northeast south Dakota and a majority of western
Minnesota. There is high uncertainty of the persistence of this
stratus since models are by and far too optimistic. However, it
appears that KATY will be most affected with an MVFR, to perhaps
IFR, ceiling expected through at least 10-12Z. KABR is on the edge
of the cloud deck. At this point left a CIG out of the KABR
forecast. However, will monitor and amend as necessary.
Otherwise, surface high pressure settles in. Northwest winds
become light tonight and return out of the south on Monday.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Serr