490
FXUS63 KABR 102353 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
653 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Around a 25 to 50 percent chance of light rain showers
  heading into early Saturday morning mainly over the Glacial
  Lakes region, with just a few hundredths of precipitation
  potential. 20- 30% chance of light rain showers Saturday night
  (isolated to scattered coverage).

- Well above normal temperatures Sunday, highs in the 70s to low
  80s (15 to 25 above normal). West winds 10 to 20 mph with
  gusts to 30 mph. Grassland Fire Danger increases to High/Very
  High category both Saturday and Sunday.

- Potentially active period of precipitation chances off and on
  from Monday through Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 646 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 00Z TAFS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 136 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

At 1 PM CDT, skies are sunny, and temperatures are warming through
the 40s into the 50s. Winds have settled in from the south generally
around 5 to 15 mph with some occasionally higher gusts; lightest
winds over toward the South Dakota/Minnesota border while strongest
winds are along/west of the Missouri River valley.

Over the next 24 hours, low level jet southerlies are going to
transport Gulf moisture up into the region. This is expected to
translate into the blossoming of an expansive area of low stratus
over the central/northern plains on Saturday. The western edge of
the low cloud field may end up settling down along/near the ABR and
UNR CWA borders Saturday afternoon. While this moisture surge is
happening, the steering winds aloft will eventually switch around to
southwesterly on Saturday, leaving the CWA under some form of
westerly or southwesterly flow for the rest of the forecast period.
Models/ensembles depict a "wave train" pattern developing by early
next week, continuing through Friday of next week. So, plenty of
precipitation potential throughout the 7-day. As expected, there is
not an ensemble-powered 12-hour PoP block that doesn`t have
measurable PoPs in it between tonight and Friday of next week. Right
now, it seems the models imply mid/upper level shortwave passages
about once every 36 to 48 hours, starting Sunday night. Over these
first 36 hours of the forecast, models/ensembles are currently still
latching on to some isolated/scattered shower potential late tonight
through Saturday late morning mainly east of a line from Redfield to
Sisseton. Beyond that, ensembles and CAMs are basically dry for the
rest of Saturday through Sunday.

The clouds (be they stratus or otherwise) that are expected to
develop on Saturday will somewhat hamper the warm-up being
advertised for Saturday. As low level winds become more westerly on
Sunday, low clouds over the CWA are expected to end, and efficient
mixing westerly PBL winds should aide sunshine to produce high
temperatures in the 70s, to perhaps 80s for some locations.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 646 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all terminals tonight
into Saturday morning. MVFR CIGs will begin returning by mid to
late morning, especially at KABR/KATY/KMBG TAF sites. Increasing
southeast winds will turning gusty by early to mid morning
Saturday. Wind gusts of 25-30 knots will be possible by midday
through Saturday afternoon. PROB30 groups for light rain shower
remain in the forecast for KATY Saturday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 136 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Monitoring fire weather conditions over the weekend, due to strong
southerly winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph on Saturday
and westerly winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph on Sunday.
Higher relative humidity and cloud cover on Saturday east of the
Missouri River valley will help to keep the Grassland Fire
Danger index from getting out of hand, but along/west of the
Missouri River valley on Saturday, elevated fire concerns may
happen for a couple of hours late in the day. Similarly, on
Sunday, a drying/warming westerly component wind (not as strong
as Saturday), including frequent gusts 25-30mph, in tandem with
afternoon relative humidity potentially falling to 20-25
percent will place western/southwestern fire weather zones
rather close to Red Flag conditions. Also, in between potential
rounds of rain this upcoming week, there are a few days where
relative humidity could fall to or below 25 percent. So, an eye
is being kept on that, as well.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Vipond
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...Vipond
FIRE WEATHER...10