764
FXUS63 KABR 082336 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
536 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and mild conditions through the day Tuesday, with well
  above normal highs in the 50s and 60s.

- Weak system brings slight chances (20%) for light rain over
  northeast SD and west central MN Tuesday evening. Any rainfall
  amounts likely less than 0.25in.

- Brief cool down Wednesday through Friday (especially
  Thursday), with highs only in the 30s and 40s on Thursday.
  Above normal temperatures likely returning by next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 530 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 136 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

The surface ridge axis that`s overhead this afternoon will gradually
shift east into MN this evening. As this occurs, southerly winds and
increasing warm air advection will be developing/spreading east
across the region as a warm front approaches. By 06Z tonight, 850mb
temps should range from about +13C to +16C across the CWA. Cold
front follows the warm front fairly quickly and temps aloft are
already cooling by Monday morning. That said, the air mass is still
rather mild even post-frontal and highs still look to be well above
normal, reaching the upper 50s to low 60s for most areas.

Will then be watching the wave of low pressure that moves southeast
across the area Tuesday/Tuesday night. Models are trying to generate
light QPF with this system as it moves through. Inherited NBM PoPs
highlight the eastern CWA with slight chances Tuesday evening. The
ENS camp of solutions is more bullish with probability of measurable
precipitation (0.01in), showing around 50-75% across the eastern
CWA. Probabilities for measurable stretch further west over central
SD as well, so will have to see if slight/low chances for precip get
expanded further westward across the CWA over the next few forecast
cycles.

Models continue to show a brief shot of colder air following this
system, especially by Thursday. Grand Ensemble 850mb temps seem to
be a tad colder than they were 24 hours ago, now showing temps aloft
as cold as -3C to 0C across the eastern CWA. The 12Z deterministic
GFS run is as cold as -4C over the eastern CWA at 18Z Thursday.
Inherited NBM high temps are only in the upper 30s across the
eastern CWA for Thursday. As previously mentioned though, this cold
looks to be short lived as models bring back 850mb temps of +10C or
warmer next weekend, and should lead to above normal readings once
again.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 530 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

With pressure falls and a warm frontal boundary working through
the region tonight, short-term ensemble guidance is inferring
the potential for some patchy fog late tonight/early Monday
morning (~10Z to 14Z) in the James River valley prior to the
wind shifting to the northwest. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
forecast through the TAF period. There may be a couple periods
of low-level wind shear (LLWS) overnight.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...10