164
FXUS63 KABR 180837
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
337 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds increase today out of the northwest, with gusts of 30 to 40
mph. The winds will cause elevated fire danger over portions of
central and north central South Dakota.

- Lows for tonight will be near or at freezing ranging in the 30s.

- Strong winds and elevated fire danger return Monday. Probabilities
of wind gusts more than 45 mph is 50-90 percent, highest over
central SD.

- Seasonal temperatures this weekend will be followed by slightly
cooler readings early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

An upper level trough and surface cold front is currently impacting
the area with light showers over northwest South Dakota. The trough
will continue progressing across the region today, with light
showers spreading across the CWA. The probability of seeing 0.01
inches of QPF per the NBM exceeds 45 percent over a good portion of
the CWA. The highest probability is over north central and central
SD where the chance is over 60 percent. The higher potential lines
up with deterministic models area of frontogenesis. ECAM and HREF
suggest the pcpn will push east of the CWA between 18 and 21Z.
Behind the pcpn, the area will see increasing northwesterly winds
with gusts of 25 to 40 mph expected. Six hour pressure rises have
increased some compared to this time yesterday, but still mostly
impacting western and south central South Dakota today. Buffer
soundings still support peak wind gusts reaching 30 to 35 knots at
times, or sub-adverisory levels. The winds will subside later this
evening and through the overnight hours. Favorable conditions should
allow low temperatures to drop below 32 degrees F by Sunday morning
over a good portion of the CWA. Southerly winds developing on Sunday
will bring warmer temperatures into the area with highs reaching the
mid 50s, to the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

The upper flow pattern will feature an incoming upper trough from
the west that will replace a departing upper ridge to the east as
this period begins late Sunday into early Monday. This upper trough
will spawn a sfc low pressure system that will track into the
Dakotas on Monday. An associated strong cold front is progged to set
off a 30-60 percent chance of shower activity that will primarily
affect our northern zones during the day. Moisture still looks to
remain scant with this system, so only expecting light rain shower
activity that may produce upward of a few hundredths to a tenth of an
inch of rainfall. The bigger story this system will deliver will be
strong northwest winds. Strong cold air advection will kick in as
the front tracks across the area Monday morning with 850mb
temperatures falling into a range between 0C and +5C during the day
and then eventually going subzero Monday night into Tuesday morning.
The combination of this CAA along with pressure rises and daytime
mixing will lead to a period of strong winds. NBM suggests
probabilities of seeing wind gusts greater than 45 mph range from 50-
90 percent across most of our SD zones on Monday with the highest
wind gust probs west of the James Valley into central and western
SD. In fact, probabilities of seeing winds greater than 55 mph run
about 50-70 percent west of the Missouri River. Will have to
continue to monitor these trends for the potential need for wind
headlines.

A tight gradient is maintained Monday night into Tuesday, especially
from the James Valley and point east. So, anticipate that gusty
northwest winds will persist in these areas during the daytime
hours. Not expecting nearly as strong of winds compared to Monday,
but gusts could still reach a 25-35 mph range especially across the
Prairie Coteau. As the low pressure system departs from northern MN
into the western Great Lakes, some wrap around light showers will be
possible across our eastern zones Monday night. Sfc high pressure is
then progged to take hold going through midweek time frame. Dry
conditions are expected to prevail as temperatures remain seasonal.
Once that high drifts farther east late in the period, a warming
trend is expected as WAA commences and temperature readings go back
above normal the latter half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions for the most part. We could see some light showers
moving through in the morning to mid day hours for all terminals,
but impacts should be minimal/temporary and limited to brief MVFR
CIGS/VISBY. Winds remain predominantly westerly and increase during
the day.&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...Vipond
AVIATION...SD