524
FXUS63 KABR 180722
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
122 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain transitions to snow this morning, mainly accumulating over
northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota through this
afternoon. Up to 2" broadly expected, with some localized areas in
northeast South Dakota possibly seeing up to 4".

- Strong winds continue this morning, gusting between 45 and 55
miles per hour. A Wind Advisory is in effect for all South Dakota
counties through 12 PM central today. Winds are expected to decrease
this afternoon.

- The combination of strong winds and falling snow will reduce
visibility over northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota this
morning, down to a half to a quarter of a mile possible at times.
Therefore, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for parts of
northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota through 3 PM central
today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 120 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Keeping a close eye on wind observations early this morning as the
low pressure center makes its way in. Seeing some isolated, brief
gusts up above 55 mph along the frontal boundary, but for the most
part gusts remain between 45-50 mph. This is in line with the
expectations from the Wind Advisory currently in effect for all
South Dakota counties, which is set to expire by 18Z this afternoon.
Observations are also indicating that mainly rain is falling early
this morning, and temperatures are expected to remain warm enough
overnight to continue that trend out ahead of the front.

Still anticipating a transition from rain to snow later this morning
as the front passes through the area and temperatures drop. Snow is
mainly expected to stay over northeastern South Dakota into western
Minnesota, with central and north central South Dakota remaining dry
after this initial rain push overnight. A southerly shift in high-
resolution model guidance has significantly increased the amount of
snow that is expected once the transition occurs. What was once a
forecast of less than one inch across northeast SD/western MN now
sits at up to 2" from Brown county and east. Portions of Day and
Marshall counties may see even higher, up to 4" in total through the
event. The additional factor that needs to be considered with this
system is that during the time frame when the heaviest expected
snowfall will be (this morning between 6 am and noon central), the
area will be hanging on to the strong northwesterly winds mentioned
above that have prompted the Wind Advisory. Therefore, falling snow
will combine with these winds to reduce visibilities, at times less
than half a mile. Due to these visibility reductions and the
increased snowfall totals, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued
for parts of northeastern South Dakota (Brown County and east) as
well as western Minnesota from 12Z through 21Z. Consideration was
given to a Blizzard Warning, but confidence was not quite high
enough in the consistency or longevity of snowfall rates sufficient
to cause extended visibility reductions of a quarter mile or less,
particularly with no snow currently on the ground. However,
conditions remain borderline, and it would not be entirely
surprising to see some areas reach that quarter mile visibility at
some point this morning.

Shifting focus to central South Dakota today, low post-frontal dew
points (down into the low double digits by the afternoon) will once
again facilitate afternoon humidity values between 20-30%, with the
lowest located over Jones and Lyman counties. This combined with the
strong winds may cause some elevated fire weather concerns over that
area this afternoon. However, winds are set to decrease this
afternoon through this evening, meaning that the strongest winds
will not line up with the lowest humidity. It will depend a little
bit upon how long the winds are able to hang on, but at this time
Red Flag conditions are not anticipated today despite the elevated
concerns.

Looking to Thursday, previous forecasts had focused on the potential
for a band of snow over parts of central South Dakota. Latest model
guidance indicates that this band has shifted south, nearly out of
the forecast area entirely. As it stands now, only a couple of
tenths of snow is expected, and if this southerly trend continues
central South Dakota will remain dry. There is some signal for some
light snow over northeastern South Dakota on Thursday lingering from
the departing low pressure center, but little to no accumulation is
expected in that area on Thursday at this point.

After these precipitation systems move out of the area, the new
upper-level pattern of a trough over the western CONUS will lead to
normal to slightly below normal temperatures for mid-February
through the weekend. Pattern will begin to shift once again early
next week, increasing temperatures to slightly above normal. At this
time, dry conditions are expected through the weekend, and there are
no systems beyond this weekend that are worth diving into just yet.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1155 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Areas of -SHRA/SHRA and -RA/RA will continue across the KABR/KATY
terminals through the overnight period before switching to -sn/sn
early Wednesday morning with generally MVFR VSBY expected within
moderate precipitation. CIGs will generally be MVFR as well,
although IFR cannot be ruled out at times. Precipitation has
switched to -SN/SN at KMBG and will continue for a couple more
hours before ending, with IFR VSBY possible. KPIR will be least
affected by all of this, and may in fact be primarily VFR through
the TAF period.

Strong west-northwest surface winds have already begun across
KPIR/KMBG and will eventually spread into KABR/KATY through the
overnight hours. Gusts from 35 to 45 knots can be expected. Once
the rain switches to snow at KABR/KATY, the potential for
occasionally significant reductions in visibility in
falling/blowing snow will develop.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 3 PM CST this
     afternoon for SDZ006>008-011-021.

     Wind Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for SDZ003>011-
     015>023-033>037-045-048-051.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 3 PM CST this
     afternoon for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...10