747
FXUS63 KABR 142320 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
520 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry with temperatures through mid week running some 10 to 20
  degrees above normal.

- South winds gusting up to 35 to 45 mph will persist into
  Sunday. The corridor of highest winds slowly shifts east
  Sunday night into Monday.

- There is presently a 50 to 70 percent chance of precipitation
  Friday night through Saturday of next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 509 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Updated discussion for the 00Z TAFs below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 105 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

At 1PM CDT, skies are mostly sunny. Some daytime heating/mixing
strato-cu has developed/moved north into portions of the Missouri
River valley region (west river). Temperatures have been warming
through the 40s across much of the region. The breezy to windy 15 to
30 mph south-southeast winds with gusts up to 40 mph continue, as
well, mainly throughout and west of the James River valley.

This highly amplified and blocky Omega block in place across NOAM
(upper ridge axis centered on this CWA) will persist through Sunday
night, according to consensus model guidance. The upper wave pattern
undergoes some changes between Monday and the end of the period,
though, as a couple of chunks of energy move into the western CONUS
Monday and Tuesday, and eventually over to the east coast.
Models/qpf guidance continue to reduce the amount of precipitation
potential with the first area of low pressure (Wednesday
night/Thursday system) as it works its way across the nation`s mid-
section mid-week. Guidance is still indicating precipitation
potential (higher probability of rain than snow), though, with the
late week system/upper trof working east across the CONUS. Then, the
upper ridge is supposed to pump back up across the middle two-thirds
of the country.

Both ensemble probabilities and deterministic thermal progs support
warm (warmer than November normals) temperatures through, at least,
Tuesday of next week, perhaps even Wednesday depending on the
amount/duration of cloudiness, before any low level CAA can happen.

These breezy/windy southerly winds of 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts
are progged to continue through Monday. Sunday night, there could
even be a moderately strong downslope wind event in the lee of the
Prairie Coteau.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 509 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period.
South to southeast winds between 10 to 20 knots will continue
with gusts up to 30 knots. Low level wind shear is also
possible between 00-12Z Sunday across portions of central and
northeastern SD. This looks to mainly affect KMBG between ~00-02Z
and KABR between ~03-06Z where gusts of 40-50kts are possible
around 2000ft out of the south/southeast. KPIR could be affected
by this as well but not enough confidence to put into the TAF
for now. Will amend as needed. No precip expected.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MMM
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...MMM