844
FXUS63 KABR 251124
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
624 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for isolated strong storms with high
  winds (75+ mph) across central South Dakota this
  afternoon/evening. Lower risk for severe weather elsewhere.

- Heat Advisory through the weekend, with heat indices from upper
  90s to mid 100s.

- Surface wildfire smoke may settle across portions of north
  central South Dakota today, mostly elevated smoke across the
  area today.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 624 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

UPDATE for the 12Z AVIATION discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 125 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Regarding smoke potential, the HRRR shows that the northern tier of
South Dakota and down into the Glacial Lakes region will have high
smoke through the day today, and less for Sunday. Thus today it
could play spoiler-maker in regards to highs across north
central/northeast counties, but less so for central South Dakota,
and no/limited impact to temperatures Sunday. As for near surface
smoke, its pretty limited to North Dakota, but north central South
Dakota may intermittently have lower visibility shift back and forth
along the border through the weekend. Generally the southerly flow
across the area should advect in smoke-free are until there is a
boundary later Sunday so will need to re-evauate during the next
couple of longer HRRR runs on the day and tonight shifts for
potential impacts to visibility/air quality. Most of this is coming
in from the Pacific Northwest and typically by the time it arrives
it has been fairly well mixed.

CAMS bring a smattering of shower/weak thunderstorm activity in
across the west during the late this afternoon/evening with a weak
wave that crests the ridge. NAM BUFKIT profiles indicate that this
could be surface based on account of the very hot temperatures, but
likewise very high based, up around +12kft and fall just a few
hundred feet below the freezing level. Skinny CAPE resides above a
deep dry layer, potentially leading to dry storms with dry
microburst/heat bursts. Probably have to deal with some lightning
starts as well.

Main focus remains the heat for the weekend. While heat index values
at times are forecast above the 105 threshold for Extreme Heat
Warning criteria, its only for a few locations and more broadly the
Heat Advisory headlines covers conditions fairly well. Sunday is a
little more questionable with a broad area of 105+ across central
South Dakota, a few spots to 110. Overnight lows are also not a slam
dunk needed for an upgrade as most locations are forecast into the
low 70s.

With a developing more traditional 4-Corners high, the next wave
that takes the circuitous route around the high across the
intermountain west and ejects into the Northern Plains sometime
Monday/Monday night. There are a few more showing up in the NBM
through the week, though as we get late into the week/next weekend
the ridge continues to retrograde and we get into a more consistent
northwesterly flow regime. This means a generally trend towards
closer to average temperatures albeit still hot with temperatures on
average next week about 5 to 15 degrees above normal. Still none of
those over the top ridiculous well into the 70s to near 80 degree
dewpoints showing up in the NBM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 624 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Mainly VFR conditions will continue. The main concern initially
is the fog at ABR and ATY, with satellite imagery and model
guidance hinting at the fog lingering a bit longer at ABR, 6SM
visibility is noted at MBG already which may be fog or likely
the smoke expected to be reaching the surface. The only mention
of precipitation is at PIR, with thunderstorms briefly possible
this evening into the early morning hours before weakening and
shifting southeast.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Heat Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 9 PM
     CDT /8 PM MDT/ Sunday for SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-
     048-051.
MN...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT Sunday for
     MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...06