691
FXUS63 KABR 231930
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
230 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Southerly winds gusting between 30-40 mph are in place today, with
the strongest winds located over northeastern South Dakota. Strong
winds will continue over that area through this evening and into
tonight.

- The combination of near-record heat with the strong winds leads to
elevated fire weather concerns today. Grassland Fire Danger will
reach the High to Very High category.

- A cold front will move through the region tonight through early
Saturday morning. Winds behind will turn northwesterly and increase,
with gusts up to 50 miles per hour possible over parts of central
and north central South Dakota. A Wind Advisory is in effect for
that area from late tonight through Saturday morning.

- Widespread rain is expected to move into the region beginning
Sunday and continuing into Tuesday. Chances to see a quarter of an
inch of rain through that period range from 30% along the ND/SD
border to 80% over south central SD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Widespread southerly wind gusts of 30 to 40 miles per hour are in
place this afternoon, with the strongest located over parts of
northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota. These winds are
expected to persist through the afternoon before slowly diminishing
this evening. The strong winds combine with abnormally warm
temperatures (highs in the 70s to 80, approaching daily records) to
create widespread elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon.
High Grassland Fire Danger is in place across the entire forecast
area, with some pockets of Very High Grassland Fire Danger over the
parts of northeastern South Dakota where winds are expected to be
the strongest.

A low pressure center to the north will drag a cold front across the
forecast area early Saturday. Along this front, the next round of
showers to weak thunderstorms will develop. Central South Dakota may
see these showers during the early morning hours before the rain
chances transition to northeastern South Dakota and western
Minnesota after sunrise. Rain rates are generally expected to be
light, and only a couple hundredths of accumulation at most are
expected.

Post-frontal winds turn from southerly to northwesterly and increase
overnight tonight and into early Saturday morning. Under the strong
cold air advection regime, gusts upwards of 45 miles per hour (Wind
Advisory criteria) will be possible over parts of central and north
central South Dakota. There is somewhat of a sharp difference in
terms of guidance on this issue. The HREF and REFS seem to be less
than impressed by the setup, and show only a patchy 10-30% chance
for wind gusts to reach 45 miles per hour or better. The NBM on the
other hand, shows a fairly widespread 30-60% chance over that same
area. Have decided to err on the side of caution given the strength
of the cold air advection behind the front, and a Wind Advisory is
in effect late tonight into Saturday morning. Winds are expected to
decrease through the day, which is why the Advisory will expire at
15Z Saturday morning. During that same time frame, there is some
potential for strong downslope winds along the eastern edge of the
Prairie Coteau out ahead of the front. Localized gusts may top out
upwards of 40 miles per hour, but confidence is a bit lower in that
area, and therefore no advisory has been issued for that area at
this time.

Temperatures behind the cold front are set to cool back down closer
to normal. 850mb temperatures drop about 15 degrees Celsius behind
the front, settling in the +2-5 degree range. These values are just
below the median for this time of the year. As a result, expect near-
normal highs in the upper 40s to 50s for the foreseeable future.

An upper-level low will move up into the region, bringing the next
chances for precipitation beginning on Sunday. Latest NBM
probabilities indicate that the chances of seeing a quarter of an
inch through Tuesday morning ranges from 30-80%, increasing from
north to south. There is also some indication that overnight lows
(as well as temperatures through the whole profile) being sub-
freezing may support some flurries over parts of north central
and/or northeastern South Dakota. However, no snowfall accumulation
would be expected out of any snow that does manage to reach the
surface. The presence of cloud cover may also limit radiational
cooling through the night, keeping temperatures on the warmer side,
which would be enough to shut down the prospective flurries.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Main aviation concern today are the strong winds in place today.
Widespread southerly gusts of 25-35 knots have been observed, and
will continue through the afternoon and tonight. The strongest
gusts are expected over northeastern South Dakota and western
Minnesota through that period. A cold front will progress across the
forecast area overnight tonight and into Saturday morning. Winds
behind the front will turn northwesterly and increase, reaching
upwards of 40 knots at times over parts of central and north central
South Dakota. A Wind Advisory will be in place from late tonight
through Saturday morning for these areas. Out ahead of the cold
front Saturday morning, there are additional chances for some
scattered rain showers to develop over parts of eastern South Dakota
and western Minnesota. Of the TAF sites, only KATY is expected to
see any rain out of these showers. Outside of a potential reduction
to MVFR visibilities in the heaviest showers, expect VFR conditions
through the TAF period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ to 10 AM CDT /9 AM
     MDT/ Saturday for SDZ003-015-033-045.
     Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM CDT Saturday for SDZ004-005-
     009-010-016-034-035-048.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...BC