124
FXUS63 KABR 040739
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
239 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Slight Risk for severe weather is in effect along and south of
US Highway 12. Areas to the north of US Highway 12 are under a
Marginal Risk. Storms are expected to initialize in the afternoon
and continue through the evening. Large hail of 1-2" in diameter
will be the main threat, with wind gusts of 60 mph as a secondary
threat. Can`t rule out a tornado over central South Dakota or heavy
rainfall leading to flooding.

- A brief weekend warmup will push high temperatures into the low to
mid 90s across the forecast area on Saturday and Sunday, around 10
to 15 degrees above normal for early June.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Remnants of today`s severe weather event are moving out of the
forecast area this morning, with just a couple of lingering showers
and weak thunderstorms remaining as of roughly 07Z. Isolated rain
showers may stick around for the next few hours, but no significant
storms or heavy rainfall is expected to develop through the rest of
the morning.

A shortwave aloft moves overhead today, bringing chances for showers
and storms this afternoon and evening. Model guidance has struggled
lately, and today appears to be no different. While location and
timing vary significantly model to model, the general theme is that
scattered storms will pop up in the afternoon somewhere over central
to north central South Dakota (east of the Missouri River). Storms
will progress eastward into northeastern and north central South
Dakota through the evening, before a second round moves into central
South Dakota from the west. Hail will once again be the main threat
due to the CAPE/Shear combo over the area, along with mid-level
lapse rates over 8 C/km proving very favorable. Damaging wind is
also a concern, as DCAPE values over 1000 J/kg are expected. The
best environment for both hail and wind appears to be over central
and north central South Dakota, but these hazards are expected to
continue over northeastern South Dakota still. Can`t rule out an
isolated tornado over central South Dakota either, and there is a
signal for some strong low-level curvature in the hodographs in that
area. However confidence remains low, as there is much disagreement
in the CAMs on the timing and location of the potential tornado
threat. Also can`t quite rule out the potential for excessive
rainfall leading to flooding, especially over areas that have seen a
lot of rain already this past week.

By this weekend, zonal flow will transition to a ridge building over
the Northern Plains, with a longwave trough developing over the
western CONUS. The ridge overhead will bring dry conditions for a
change through the weekend. Also expecting a brief warmup over the
weekend due to the warmer airmass, with highs reaching the low to
mid 90s across the forecast area both Saturday and Sunday. The next
chances for rain come along a cold front passing through early next
week (passage likely coming either Sunday night or Monday morning.
Medium-range ML models do show some chances for severe weather along
the front, but that will be an analysis for another day.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Most of the showers and thunderstorms have cleared out of
northeast SD early this morning. There may be a lingering -TSRA
around KATY for the initial 1-2 hours of this TAF valid period.
Otherwise, dry conditions are anticipated through the overnight
into the mid morning hours when scattered thunderstorms will
develop across central SD and potentially affect KPIR/KMBG. This
activity is expected to expand east into northeast SD during the
afternoon and evening. MVFR CIGs and MVFR/IFR vsby`s will be
possible in areas of heavier TSRA/+TSRA`S. Otherwise, MVFR to
VFR conditions should prevail through this TAF cycle.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...Vipond