712
FXUS63 KABR 222324 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
624 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- After a cool start to Monday with temperatures in the 20s,
  warmer readings are expected to return with highs in the 50s to
  low 60s.

- Strong southerly winds gusting to 30-35 mph combined with
  afternoon humidity of 25-35 percent will create very high
  grassland fire danger Monday afternoon across central SD. Fires
  that start may spread quickly.

- A couple of weak mid level waves passing to the north around the
  middle portion of the week may provide northern portions of the
  forecast area with a few showers with very little in the way of
  measurable moisture expected.

- A temperature roller coaster through the week will lead to
  readings close to normal on the cooler days to above normal on
  the warmer days. The coolest period is expected to occur
  Thursday into Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 622 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

The forecast remains on track this evening. No major changes are
planned.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Overcast skies have been tough to break up in some spots of the
forecast area today. We`ve had a little better luck in some areas by
midday and early afternoon where sunny breaks have been observed,
especially across parts of central SD. Temperatures are running a
good 30-40 degrees colder early this afternoon from where they were
24 hours ago. Sfc high pressure building into the area tonight will
continue to try and break up more of the cloud cover leading a
relatively chilly overnight, but still near normal with readings in
the 20s.

The sfc ridge will begin shifting east of the CWA early Monday
morning turning winds back around to a southerly direction and
increasing in speed by midday as the pressure gradient tightens.
Probabilities of seeing wind gusts in excess of 30 mph Monday
afternoon range between 40-80 percent across most of the forecast
area. Warm air advection will pull in a more mild air mass into the
area with temperature readings in the 50s to near 60 degrees
expected. This will drive min RH values into a 25-35 percent range
across parts of central/south central SD leading to very high
grassland fire danger. One fly in the ointment perhaps to fire
weather/temp expectations will be an increase in mid level moisture
in the form of cloud cover which could impact daytime heating. Some
of this moisture could materialize into the form of some high based
shower activity for parts of central/northeast SD and west central
MN Monday afternoon into Monday evening as some weak PVA rotates
through the region. Guidance is not bullish on much if any QPF with
probabilities for a seeing a hundredth of an inch or greater at 10-
20 percent.

A cold front sinking south Monday night into Tuesday is progged to
stall out somewhere across the forecast area. This could provide a
fair amount of cloud cover to the area, but with dry conditions
prevailing. Where that front sets up on Tuesday will have a play on
temperature, winds and fire weather conditions. If it sinks far
enough south into the CWA, locales north of the boundary will
experience a somewhat cooler, cloudier day while locales to the
south could pick up more of a gustier southerly wind, warmer temps
and elevated fire danger. At this point, figuring our southern zones
will stay on the southern side of this front increasing the chances
for warmer temps and elevated grassland fire danger. The front will
sink south of the CWA Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Some weak
mid level energy is progged to cross ND late Tue/early Wed that
should keep most precip chances north of the forecast area, but
close enough to the ND/SD border to continue to monitor trends. That
frontal boundary will lift back to the north and northeast on
Wednesday. This could lead to a bit of a tricky temperature forecast
where our western zones see temps in the mid 60s to mid 70s while
our eastern zones stay in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Deterministic/ensemble solutions strongly agree that the forecast
area will experience the passage of another strong cold front that
will lead to strong northerly winds. In conjunction with this fropa
will be more mid level energy working through ND that could provide
for some light precip late Wed/early Thu. Again, QPF looks limited
with probabilities of seeing a hundredth of an inch or greater range
from 20-40 percent across the northern half of the CWA. Windy
conditions look more definite with probabilities of seeing wind
gusts reach 40 mph or greater at 60-80 percent across the entire
CWA. Temperatures will fall back closer to normal for highs Thursday
and Friday with readings in the 40s to low 50s. Guidance then is
indicating warmer thermal progs to set back up across the region
late in the period to kick off next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 622 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through Monday. Winds shift to the
south-southeast on Monday with gusts to 25 kts.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...20
DISCUSSION...Vipond
AVIATION...20