381
FXUS63 KABR 011952
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
252 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a Marginal Risk (1 of 5) for severe weather across
  portions of central and northeast SD and west central MN
  mainly late this afternoon through this evening. Any storms
  that develop will remain isolated with large hail up to 1 inch
  and wind gusts of 60 mph the primary threats.

- There is a Slight Risk (2 of 5) for severe weather Thursday
  afternoon through Thursday night over much of the region.
  Main hazards are 1 to 2 inches in diameter hail and wind gusts
  60-75 mph. Additionally, a tornado or two cannot be ruled
  out.

- Western U.S. and Canadian wildfire smoke (aloft) will remain
  over parts of the region through Thursday. Higher
  concentrations of near surface smoke will be possible across
  parts of central SD from about midday Thursday through the
  afternoon but will be highly variable when/where thunderstorms
  are expected.

- Near to above normal temperatures are expected throughout the
  seven day forecast, with the warmest readings, possibly as
  much as 10 degrees above normal, running up into the low 90s
  between late this week through the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Early afternoon temperatures have pushed into the upper 70s to low
80s with several hours left of peak heating to reach the upper 80s
to around 90 later this afternoon. Visible satellite shows areas of
low level CU mainly concentrated across east central SD and parts of
central SD. Winds have remained mostly light and variable with
occasional gusts between 15-20 mph. Sfc analysis shows a sfc low and
associated stalled out frontal boundary east and southeast of our
region from the western Great Lakes south and west into portions of
the Central Plains. A weak sfc trough lingering across our forecast
area earlier in the day has become more diffuse and hard to discern
from northeast SD back into the Black Hills region. It will be
perhaps in the vicinity of this feature that a couple of isolated
storms may develop late this afternoon/early evening.

SPC continues to highlight a Marginal Risk (1 of 5) for severe
weather basically along and south of a line from Eagle Butte to
Sisseton. This diffuse sfc trough in conjunction with a weak cold
front sagging south out of ND into far northern SD along with 1000-
2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 0-6 km bulk shear values of 30-50 kts could be
enough of a trigger to kick off an isolated storm or two in parts of
our forecast area, mainly on the SD side. CAMs do indicate isolated
convection late afternoon into this evening but are highly variable
in timing and placement, so confidence is low on this activity. If
things do pop, the strongest cells will be capable of strong winds
up to 60 mph and large hail up to 1 inch.

This aforementioned sfc boundary is progged to linger across SD on
Thursday with lee troughing and sfc low pressure nudging into the
western Dakotas by afternoon. The next upper s/w trough approaches
within the broad cyclonic flow across the western CONUS on Thursday
and Thursday night. Strong daytime heating with afternoon temps in
toe upper 80s to low 90s will lead to modest to strong instability
with MLCAPE values of 2000-4000 J/kg. Strong mid to upper flow will
yield deep layer shear values of 35-45 kts. Expect convection to
kick off in the vicinity of the sfc low across western SD and the
sfc boundary in central SD during the afternoon. Expect discrete
supercells initially that could pose a tornadic and large hail
threat. Storms could evolve with time into MCS type structures which
will pose a more significant damaging wind threat with severe gust
magnitudes up to 75 mph possible Thursday evening into early Friday.
SPC has outlooked our entire forecast area for a Slight Risk (2 of
5) for severe weather Thursday afternoon through Thursday night

Severe weather chances won`t be done there as another round of
convection is expected later in the day on Friday into Friday night.
Uncertainty still surrounds this round as the potential for
lingering morning convection Friday will have a play on when and
where storms get going Friday afternoon and Friday night. SPC has
highlighted most of our forecast area for a Slight Risk (2 of 5) for
severe weather Friday afternoon through Friday night. The
atmospheric set up pretty much similar to Thursday with a lingering
sfc low and sfc boundary, upper level support, MLCAPE`s of 1500-2500
J/kg and up to 45 kts of deep layer shear. The main threats with
this event look to be large to very large hail and damaging winds.

Finally, wildfire smoke aloft will remain a fairly common observance
across the region through at least Thursday. HRRR sfc smoke progs
show some higher concentrations building across south central SD
into the Pierre area perhaps from midday through the afternoon on
Thursday. So, we could see some locally reduced visibilities and air
quality issues develop and something we will continue to monitor.
One constant in all of this will be the heat and humidity.
Temperatures will continue to remain above normal with daily highs
in the upper 80s to low 90s and dew point temperatures mainly in the
60s to near 70 degrees through the remainder of this week into the
first part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will continue to prevail at all terminals through
this TAF cycle. Winds will be relatively light from the west to
southwest backing to the southeast through the course of this
forecast issuance.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Vipond
AVIATION...Vipond