952
FXUS63 KABR 111110 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
610 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous heat will build through the weekend into early next
  week with near record to record temperatures expected and heat
  index values warming into the triple digits.

- An Extreme Heat Warning for north central SD and a Heat Advisory
  for parts of central and northeast SD and west central MN remain
  in effect today through Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 606 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Updated discussion for the 12Z TAFs below.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

The main concern for the next several days will be the building heat
dome across the Northern Plains that is progged to deliver some of
the warmest temperatures of the season so far along with a prolonged
stretch of dangerous heat conditions. This will all be thanks to an
upper ridge of high pressure that will build from the southwestern
parts of the country into the Northern Plains today into Sunday.
This ridge is progged to park and center itself over South Dakota
through the first half of next week. Guidance progs 500mb
geopotential heights to increase from around 588 dam today to around
600 dam on Sunday. This is indicative of an exceptional ridge and is
often associated with major heat waves. Large scale subsidence will
lead to impressive warming temperatures aloft that will suppress
cloud cover and precipitation chances for most of this forecast
period.

850mb thermal progs for the next few days indicate temperatures of
+21C to +29C from east to west across the CWA will be maintained
today through Monday. Daytime highs today will reach the low to mid
90s from the James Valley and points east to the mid 90s to low 100s
across central SD. The core of the warmest portion of the air mass
will settle across the forecast area Sunday through Tuesday with mid
90s to near 100 degrees from the James Valley east into west central
MN while central SD sees highs in the upper 90s to low 100s all 3
days. With dew point temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s west
to the mid 60s to low 70s east expected for the next several days,
there won`t be much relief during the overnight hours with lows only
able to cool into the upper 60s to mid 70s. Daily heat index values
will top out in the upper 90s to low 100s for most locales during
these next several days with the exception of east central sections
of SD where values will be a tad cooler. Heat headlines have been
issued for today through Tuesday and will remain in place as is for
now with an Extreme Heat Warning for north central SD and a Heat
Advisory for everywhere else with the exception of east central SD
and the Watertown area. By Monday into Tuesday of next week, some
locales will have their current record high temperatures and record
warmest low temperatures threatened by this exceptional heat wave.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 606 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Patchy fog has settled in the James Valley this morning with
KABR down to 8SM. Patchy fog will remain possible mainly James
Valley and eastward and will burn off through the morning as
the sun continues to rise. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
forecast through the TAF period.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Heat Advisory from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 7 PM CDT /6
    PM MDT/ Tuesday for SDZ005>008-010-011-017-018-021-
     033>037-045-048-051.
     Extreme Heat Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 7 PM
     CDT /6 PM MDT/ Tuesday for SDZ003-004-009-015-016.
MN...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MNZ039-
     046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MMM
DISCUSSION...Vipond
AVIATION...MMM