977
FXUS63 KABR 262342
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
642 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of isolated severe
  storms to develop or move over northeastern South Dakota and
  west central Minnesota by late this evening into the
  overnight. These storms could produce locally damaging wind
  gusts.

- Wednesday could be another highs in the low to mid 90s day in
  a few spots, with most areas running up into the upper 80s to
  around 90F degrees (10 to 20 degrees above normal). High
  temperatures through the weekend into early next week should
  continue to top out in the mid 80s to low 90s.

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorm chances (20-40 percent
  chances) during the evening and overnight exist from Friday
  through Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 636 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Just some isolated weak high based convection so added a 20%
chance for the next few hours. No other changes of note.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

At 1 PM CDT, skies are partly to mostly sunny and temperatures are
warming through the 80s, on their way to the 90s again this
afternoon. Will have to keep a close eye on high temperature records
again today. Winds are the lightest along the SD/MN border and
strongest out across the Missouri River valley and west rive zones,
south at 10 to 25 mph with gusts as high as 35 mph.

The 7-day flow pattern over this CWA could be re-set and described
as persistent upper level ridging, interrupted once or twice by
shards of mid-level low pressure/shortwave energy lifting northward
along the front range of the Rockies before eventually meandering
their way north-northeast into Canada. Per QPF ensemble clusters, p
precipitation chances are driven during the period by either
heat-of- the-day destabilization and/or low level jet focus
areas. Each day is expected to bring its own instability areal
coverage questions. Deep layer shear will not be enough most
days/nights to support severe convection. Overall, weather
systems will approach the region from the south or southwest,
with the western third/half of the CWA holding the highest
chances for measurable precipitation (20-50 percent at times)
throughout the 7-day forecast.

For tonight into Wednesday, once again, will be monitoring the
evolution of the llj across the CWA. The nose of the llj may be
focused up across the far northeast corner of the CWA for a few
hours overnight where the best low level moisture will be located.
On Wednesday, surface to mid-level high pressure over the Dakotas
will through things in reverse and try to redirect/redevelop new
shower/weak storm coverage south and southwest into the CWA.

Perhaps after a break in rain chances Thursday/Thursday night, this
quasi-ring of fire-type arrangement of systems moving up and around
the CWA can bring the periodic episodes of thunderstorm activity
north/east off the front range/central high plains and into the far
western/southwestern forecast zones each evening/overnight starting
Friday and persisting into Monday of next week.

Beneath this warm upper level ridge, high temperatures will not
fluctuate all that much, given a general lack of low level thermal
advection. Per the NAEFS/ENS S.A. table of 850hpa standardized
anomalies (which continue to steadily trend warmer with each passing
day), the heat is here and looks to stay until the pattern can
change enough to drag a stronger synoptic-scale cold frontal passage
through the region. Not seeing any of those during the 7-day
forecast period. So, 80s and 90s are expected to persist.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 636 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditons for all terminals. Cant rule out an isolated storm
for KABR/KATY but these are too isolated in coverage, small in
scale and high based (AOA 8-10kft). Even if a cell moves close
to one of these terminals, impacts will be minimal.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...07