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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD
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000 FXUS63 KABR 152333 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 633 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 633 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021 00z aviation discussion updated below. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night) Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021 The forecast challenge is whether frost/sub-freezing temperatures materialize overnight. As of 2 PM CDT, skies are sunny to partly cloudy, with temperatures ranging from the mid 40s to the low 50s on breezy west winds. Still holding into a cool airmass over the region tonight. Unlike last night/early this morning, there should be little to no cloudiness over the CWA the whole night. Add in the surface winds going light from the west or south-west, and should be able to achieve that elusive "below freezing" low temperature later tonight that has been missing from the past 3 or 4 weeks. Additionally, areas that maybe don`t see below freezing temperatures tonight, could end up with some decent frost formation by morning. Frost/Freeze headlines are out for tonight/Saturday morning. Plan accordingly! Airmass moderation and a little bit of weak low level waa on Saturday should help nudge the mercury up into the upper 50s to mid 60s, with Saturday night lows expected to fall into the upper 30s to low 40s. Surface high pressure centers itself over the central plains by Saturday before slowly shifting east into the mid-Mississippi River valley Saturday night. Staying in the pressure gradient again on Saturday should result in tonight`s light west or south-westerly wind increasing back into the 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph range out of the west by late morning. Saturday night should see the winds going light once more while switching around to a south- southwesterly direction. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021 Looks like trends from last night continue with the extended. Initially looking at mild temperatures with 850mb readings warming to around +12 to +14C Sunday and closer to +14 and +17C for Monday, with the mild airmass overhead breaking down early Tuesday across the western half of the CWA and into the east through Wednesday. In the warm advection ahead of the low that moves just south of the CWA, profiles are slow to remove mid/low level dry air so trended POPs back to the west compared to blended guidance with the latest deterministic suite mostly holding precipitation on the west side of the surface low through the early morning hours Wednesday. Temperatures still warm enough for rain as the p-type, though some of the guidance 850mb temperatures are close enough to 0C that we might get some flakes mixed in across the higher terrain of our west river counties. A cool down follows for the latter half of the work week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening) Issued at 633 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are expected through tonight and Saturday at all airports. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Freeze Warning from midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight to 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ Saturday for SDZ003>011-017>020-022. Frost Advisory from midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight to 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ Saturday for SDZ015-016-021-023-033>037-045- 048-051. MN...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Saturday for MNZ039-046. && $$ UPDATE...Mohr SHORT TERM...Dorn LONG TERM...Connelly AVIATION...Mohr
Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Aberdeen, SD (ABR) Office Forecast Discussions.
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