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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD
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125 FXUS63 KABR 121830 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 130 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a Slight (level 2 of 5) to Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe storms to develop this afternoon west river, migrating east through the evening and overnight. Main threats include wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph and hail up to 1 inch in diameter. Additionally, heavy rainfall could lead to localized flooding in a few areas. -Some wildfire smoke has the ability to make it to the surface this evening over portions of northeastern SD. This smoke could reduce air quality slightly and cause some issues to those who are sensitive. -Next chance for showers and storms will be Thursday night into Friday morning over central and northeastern SD. These storms are forecast to stay below severe criteria. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026 Wildfire smoke will continue to move in today. While most of this smoke will stay above the surface, portions of northeastern SD could see some of this smoke get to the surface. The concentration of smoke will not be enough to cause a decrease in visibilities, though the air quality will drop into the moderate Air Quality Index category. Those who are sensitive to air pollutants could be impacted slightly. Temperatures today are on track to be around normal, with highs in the 80s. As a weak upper-level shortwave moves over SD this afternoon into the evening, a surface boundary will be moving into central and northeastern SD. This shortwave and surface boundary will help to provide some forcing for shower and storm development today as they move over an area with some instability. The models are showing CAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg over central and portions of northeast SD this afternoon into the evening, decreasing as the surface boundary moves in. Mid-level flow from the intermountain west will help to move in moisture in the mid-levels and create a bit of an inverted-V sounding. The inverted-V sounding indicates 2 things: that the convection will likely be elevated, and that strong winds from microbursts will be possible in the storms. There is a slight (level 2 of 5) to marginal (level 1 of 5) risk that any storms that develops could become severe, with the highest risk for severe storms over south central SD. The main hazard will be strong wind gusts of 60-70 mph. Even though there will be weaker lapse rates, if any isolated cell does develop in front of the boundary, there is a risk for hail up around 1 inch. Additionally, with the moisture moving in from the intermountain west helping to feed the storms, there could be heavy rainfall at times. If multiple cells were to move over the same area, that rainfall could add up and create localized flooding at times. These storms should move out of central and northeastern SD during the early overnight hours, with the potential for a few lingering showers into early Thursday morning. Behind the surface boundary, cooler air will be moving in Thursday. This will cause temperatures to fall slightly, to be about 5 to 10 degrees below normal through the weekend. High temperatures will be in the 70s during this time. There is a little bit of variability in the models as to precipitation chances Thursday. Some models keep some isolated showers and storms over central and northeastern SD Thursday morning and afternoon, while other models keep the showers and storms out of the area. The next larger chance for showers and storms to move in will be Thursday night into Friday as the Lee of the Rockies surface trough starts to move over and through SD. Models show very weak instability over northeastern and central SD as well as weak lapse rates and shear. Because of this, these showers and storms will likely stay as weak storms with little chance to become severe. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Mainly VFR/MVFR conditions will be around this afternoon and evening, except for some IFR at KPIR due to low clouds for another hour or so, before some showers and storms start to move in over the terminals. The storms have a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) to become severe if they develop, with occasional strong wind gusts of 60-70 mph possible. These showers and storms will be moving out during the evening and early overnight hours. KATY could see some wildfire smoke reaching the surface this evening, though this smoke should not affect visibility and ceilings. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...12 AVIATION...12 |
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NWS Aberdeen, SD (ABR) Office Forecast Discussions.
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