541
FXUS63 KABR 092104
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
404 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A band of snow sets up along the ND/SD state line this evening.
Overall accumulations for the area should be light, but a localized
narrow ribbon of 2 to 4 inches accumulation is not out of the
question.

- Another system for Tuesday/Tuesday night has the potential to
bring inch or two to mainly central and eastern SD.

- A clipper Thursday will be associated with mainly strong winds,
though confidence is not high enough at this time for specific
ranges.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 403 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Area of snow is moving eastward across southern ND, with an embedded
heavier band of moderate snow along/near I-94. As we approach the
evening hours, this area of snow may begin to re-orient itself
southward towards the state line, or even into northern SD. Latest
run of models generally show the current situation fairly well, but
still differ on the overall areal coverage and duration of any areas
of light snow and/or banded snow features that may develop over
northern SD towards Hwy 12, or even as far south as Hwy 212 during
the evening hours. Frontogenesis aloft does shift southward a bit
over the next several hours, perhaps giving the northern CWA a
better chance for snow development. There are hints in hi-res models
of a few banded features, or areas of light/moderate snow developing
over the northern CWA during the evening hours. Early on, there
still may be mixed precip to deal with in any furthest south extent
of precip that develops this evening, mainly around Hwy 12/212,
before snow becomes the primary precip type. In general,
models/ensemble data giving around an inch accumulation over the
northern CWA, but still seeing evidence of perhaps some higher
totals within any east/west oriented bands that develop. This could
bring localized areas of 2 to 4 inches. WPC Super Ensemble Plumes
continue to show some higher end scenarios where 2 to 3.5 inches are
possible over portions of the eastern CWA.

Will then be looking at Tuesday/Tuesday night for the next round of
mixed precip and snowfall. More of a broader area of precip with
this system it would appear. Current forecast still only shows
around an inch or less of snow accumulation, but some higher amounts
around 2 or 3 not out of the question as NBM 90th percentile amounts
are closer to 3 or 4 inches.

Rest of the 7-day forecast looks fairly active, with a system
sliding southeast on Thursday, bringing windy conditions and perhaps
some fire weather concerns over the far southwest CWA where RH is
forecast to bottom out around 25 percent and wind gusts could exceed
30-35 mph. Potential for a stronger storm system this weekend, but
plenty of time to watch this and take note of changes/trends that
are taking place. As of now, models do show snowfall overspreading
the area with light/moderate accumulations possible. Starting to see
some 30-35 percent chances for greater than 3 inches of snowfall off
the Grand Ensemble.

X


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon hours. Later
this evening and overnight, an area of -SN/SN will move east
across southern ND into northern SD, possibly affecting KABR/KMBG
with IFR VSBY. MVFR CIGs are also forecast to move into northern
SD later tonight into early Tuesday morning, so included mention
of this for KMBG/KABR/KATY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...TMT