618
FXUS63 KABR 181952
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
252 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated (20% coverage) thundershowers this afternoon will
  wane by early evening. No severe storms expected. Overnight,
  20-50% chances for precipitation over northern SD. Again,
  severe storm chances are rather low.

- The next chance of widespread precipitation is late Saturday
  into Sunday with the chance of more than an inch of
  accumulation between 60 and 70% over central/south central SD.

- Temperatures look to be near or below normal next week with
  highs in the 70s to around 80 at times.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Isolated showers/thundershowers across the region this afternoon in
an air mass characterized by weak instability and limited shear.
Much of this activity should wane by early evening. Later tonight, a
disturbance will move out of MT and across the Dakotas, with
additional precipitation chances (20-50%) mainly for northern
portions of the CWA as suggested by many CAM solutions. Don`t have a
good feel for areal extent of PoPs overnight, so will need to be
watched by evening shift as activity moves into the Dakotas. This
shortwave will still be over the Northern Plains on Friday and be
responsible for additional threats for precipitation mainly for the
far eastern CWA.

Next chance for precipitation comes Saturday afternoon and night,
spreading eastward towards the James River valley by Sunday. Chances
peak to 70+ percent over central SD Saturday night into Sunday.
Overall, the severe threat looks rather low as evidenced by ML
output. There could be some decent rainfall amounts Saturday night
through Sunday evening as NBM probs for greater than 0.75in in a
24hr period ending 00Z Monday ranges from 60 to 80 percent over
central/south central SD. Probs for over an inch are even around 60
to 70 percent as well.

Looking ahead to next week, the pattern appears unsettled at times
with weak disturbances potentially affecting the region.
Temperatures look to remain near normal with highs in the 70s to
near 80 at times.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Afternoon pop-up -SHRA/-TSRA across the region this afternoon,
close enough to KABR/KMBG to warrant a VC (vicinity) mention
early in the TAF period. Otherwise, additional precipitation
chances across the region overnight, but areal coverage is in
question, so will PROB30 it at this time. Generally VFR
conditions are forecast through the TAF period, although if any
showers were to move over a TAF site, MVFR VSBY is possible.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...TMT