142
FXUS63 KABR 130624
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1224 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Just slightly below normal temperatures today, with a steady
warmup through the weekend into next week. Highs Sunday through most
of next week some 10 to 20 degrees above normal.

- Dry conditions through mid week next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1219 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Upper trough/low over the eastern CONUS with a weak ridge aloft
across the eastern Rockies into the High Plains to start off the
forecast for today. Northerly flow aloft directing cooler air into
the region, with a west to east thermal gradient across the
Dakotas/Minnesota. As high pressure makes a slow retreat to the
east, increased southeasterlies thanks to about 14mb gradient across
the state. That gets to about 20mb by Saturday morning, so winds to
remain up tonight. This also means that upslope flow stratus in the
far western CWA also to remain in place.

For Saturday night/Sunday, a trough coming in across the Rockies but
is in the process of weakening. This appears to be a split flow type
situation, with the primary wave within this flow regime moving
across the Desert Southwest/Southern Plains, with another wave
moving across southern/central Canada. Thus, limited weather impact
with this feature aside from just a slight weakening of the
gradient, down to around 12-14mb across the state, although oriented
more southwest to northeast and thus winds out of the due south. Not
a massive or substantial warmup aloft, but milder for Sunday with
850mb temperatures up to around +4 to +8C... which is approaching a
standard deviation above climo. NBM temperatures are topping out
around 10 to 15F above climo in response.

So the weakening upper trough moves overhead late in the
day/overnight Sunday so little more than some scattered mid/high
clouds. Without a surface reflection, low level flow remains
persistent into Monday/Tuesday. Peak `heat` is supposedly Monday,
with a slight decrease in temperatures aloft Tuesday with a
southwest flow shortwave lifting out ahead of the next broader upper
wave, but moisture with this feature is up around 200-300mb and
850mb temperatures are still a standard deviation above climo.

Focus shifts to a low that moves across the area Wednesday as the
upper trough likewise lifts up across the area. With the moisture on
the northern and western portions of the low, focus area for most
QPF is up across North Dakota.  The lower ranges of ensembles is
down around zero for moisture, with the 75th percentile up around
1/4 to 1/3 of an inch along the ND/SD state line. Thus, a
slight wiggle southwards would slightly improve our chances for
moisture.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1122 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through Friday evening. Southeast winds
increase across central SD by afternoon with gusts to 30 kts at KPIR
and KMBG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...17