909
FXUS63 KABR 020528 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1228 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 20% chance of light showers this afternoon and
  evening over northeastern SD and west central MN. Little to
  no accumulation is expected.

- Winds out of the northwest will gust 30 to 40 mph Monday
  afternoon. There is a 20% chance of winds gusting over 45 mph
  west of the James River Monday afternoon.

- High temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday of next week will be
  around 10 degrees below normal.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 06Z TAFS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

As of midnight, satellite imagery indicates mid to high clouds
stretching from MT and eastward through MN through Canada associated
with the surface low currently over southern Saskatchewan, per water
vapor. Temperatures have dropped into the mid 30s to the lower 40s,
warmest over central SD with winds overall light out of the
south/southwest.

By 12Z this morning the high pressure system that was over the
region will continue to track southward over NE/KS. HREF and better
consensus between the GEFS/ENS indicate the center of the low
continuing to track eastward across Manitoba and forecast to be over
ND/MN/Manitoba border by 18Z and then tracking southeastward. By 00Z
the center of the low is forecast to be over eastern/northeastern ND
through northwestern MN. Cams indicate the potential for very light
convective showers associated with this low tracking northwest to
southeast out of Canada, through ND/MN through the day, and
potentially clipping our CWA, mainly James Valley through west
central MN late this afternoon and evening (~21-04Z). NamNest, NSSL,
and HiResW models still indicate the potential for spotty showers
more west of here for portions of central SD. Latest NBM keeps the
15-20% pops James Valley and eastward. So I did blend a little ECAM
in there (2 parts NBM 1 part ECAM) to show the potential for spotty
convective showers west of here. With lots of dry air below 700mb
(inverted V soundings), PWAT values 0.8" and below, and weak
forcing, it will be hard to get anything more than light rain or
sprinkles or just virga really so low confidence exists. Little to
no accumulation expected as probability of QPF>0.01 is 20% or less
per NBM. Winds will be out of the southwest this morning ahead of
the cold front, turning westerly then northwesterly as the front
tracks northwest to southeast across the CWA. The front looks to
exit our far southeastern CWA by 06Z or so. Winds will also increase
this morning with gusts this afternoon between 20-30kts, highest
over north central SD, and diminishing later on this evening and
overnight.

Behind the system, high pressure builds over eastern MT Sunday and
shifting over the region through Sunday evening, keeping conditions
overall quiet with winds shifting westerly then southwesterly Sunday
evening/night. During this time, another clipper low will track out
of northwestern Canada and southeastward across Canada (and
strengthening) with the center of the low over Manitoba/Ontario
border by 00Z Monday with its cold front extending westward over
southern Canada. By Monday morning, the low is forecast to be over
southern Ontario with the cold front extending across north central
MN and westward along the ND/SD border. It will then track south and
east over the CWA during the morning with winds behind it back in
northwest flow. Models do indicate the possibility of rain with this
front Monday morning, however, pops are minimal with NBM between 15-
25%. The main concern will be the wind. With CAA steepening the low
level lapse rates (strongest CAA over north central SD during the
morning and weakening a bit east of the Mo river by the midday)
along with pressure rises up to 6mb/6hr, winds will increase Monday
morning and remain gusty through the afternoon with gusts between 30
to potentially 40 mph. May need to blend some NBM90th to show for
potentially higher gusts closer to time. As of now, probability of
wind gusts>45 mph, per NBM is only 20% over the Leola Hills with max
gusts potential between 40-50kts, highest again over the Leola
Hills. So we will keep an eye out in the upcoming days for any wind
headlines. As the previous shift mentioned, drier soils over central
SD (especially south central SD) may lead to blowing dust where less
rainfall has occurred.

Further into the extended forecast (Tuesday and onward), Clusters
continues to indicate the ongoing +PNA pattern with this persistent
cutoff low spinning over the eastern portions of Canada and split
flow to our west with a ridge over the western CONUS (and trough
over southern CA) as the Northern Plains in between these two
systems with overall west to northwest flow. Other than slight pops
(15%) Tuesday/Wednesday per weak embedded shortwaves, this entire
pattern will slowly shift eastward through the end of the week with
the Northern Plains along the eastern side of the ridge with overall
dry weather forecasted for now per high pressure at surface.

Temps will be up and down over the next week with highs for today
warmer, ahead of the incoming low, ranging in the mid 60s (over the
Coteau) to the mid 70s. Lows for tonight will be warmer, ranging in
the upper 30s to the lower 40s. Cooler Sunday behind the weak cold
front, with highs overall in the 60s to possibly hitting 70 for some
locations along and west of the Mo River. Monday, northern SD will
be cooler, closer to the secondary fropa that will pass through,
with highs ranging in the upper 50s to the mid 60s, warmest over the
southern half the CWA. However the spread is 9-12 degrees per 25-
75th due to low confidence on fropa timing. Behind the front and
high building, highs for Tuesday and Wednesday will only be in the
40s and 50s. Temps will gradually increase end of next week with
this ridge moving closer to the area with highs back up in the 60s
to even 70s Friday and Saturday. However, the NBM 25-75th spread is
7-9 degrees due to being far out in the forecast and timing/strength
of ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through this
forecast cycle. Increasing southwest winds will gust up to
20-25 knots from late morning through early evening. Winds will
shift to the northwest by mid to late evening tonight.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Vipond
DISCUSSION...MMM
AVIATION...Vipond