948
FXUS63 KABR 171827
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
127 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High temperatures Thursday, Friday, and Saturday will be in the
  60s, 70s across much of the forecast area, possibly into the
  lower 80s (central South Dakota). It will all depend on how
  quickly the snow melts this afternoon and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 126 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

At 1 PM CDT, skies are partly to mostly cloudy. A surface warm
front (over west river counties) is slowly moving east across the
CWA. A band of mainly light snow is making its way across the far
northeast corner of South Dakota and west central Minnesota.
Temperatures are warming through the teens and 20s east of the warm
frontal boundary, with readings warming into the 30s and 40s
throughout and west of the Missouri River valley region.

Models/ensembles/clusters analysis are all in sync defining the rest
of this week as a dry and increasingly warm forecast period. They
all purport the western CONUS upper level ridge propagating a bit
east, allowing the heat dome underneath it to shift/bleed over into
this CWA. The western zones appear to be fully transitioned (snow
melted) to much above normal warmth with ensemble 25th-75th
percentile temps ranging between the upper 60s and lower 80s
Wednesday through Saturday. Wednesday appears to be a transition day
for the eastern forecast zones (taking a good portion of the day`s
heating energy to melt snow). Then, Thursday through Friday over the
eastern CWA look similar in the 25th-75th percentiles for warmth
(60s and 70s appearing to be rather achievable). Either Saturday or
Saturday night (timing difference in the models), a surface cold
frontal boundary passes south through the CWA as energy riding
into/through the upper ridge tries to knock it down during the
upcoming weekend. Will continue to monitor the potential for any
precipitation over the weekend with this system and/or it`s cold
front. Temperatures are expected to fall down to readings closer to
normal for this time of year (upper 40s to near 50F at KPIR to mid
40s at K8D3) Sunday and Monday of next week. If the 8-14 day
temperature outlook is halfway right, things should be trending back
to well above normal at some point next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

CIGs at KPIR/KMBG are or will soon be VFR, remaining so through
the TAF valid period. KABR and KATY are in MVFR (clouds) and
MVFR/IFR (visbys) conditions in light to moderate snow, although
the snow will be ending at KABR right about the time the TAF
valid period begins. Some lingering light snow is expected at KATY
for an hour or two on the very front end of the valid period. The
breezy southerly winds at KABR/KATY (15 to 20 knots with gusts up
to 30 knots) will create drifting and periodic blowing snow this
afternoon. Otherwise, KABR/KATY should be getting back into VFR
conditions by early this evening. Low-level wind shear (LLWS)
potential will increase by early this evening, persisting through
a good chunk of the tonight period, so continued to mention this
in the TAFs.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...10