091
FXUS63 KABR 260642
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
142 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There will be some scattered rain showers through the morning into
the afternoon over central and portions of northeastern South
Dakota.

- The probability of exceeding wind advisory criteria (sustained
winds of greater than 30 mph and/or gusts of 45 mph or more) is
between 60-80% west of the James valley Saturday.

- There is Slight (2 of 5) to Marginal Risk (1 of 5) for severe
weather Saturday. Confidence is low on storm development due to very
warm temperatures above the surface. If storms do form, all hazards
will be possible.

- Above normal temperatures for the weekend and next week.
Temperatures are forecast into the 90s and dewpoints well into the
60s. This will push heat index values into the mid to upper 90s with
increased risk for heat related illnesses.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Scattered rain showers have moved in over portions of north central
SD and these showers will continue to move and spread over parts of
central and northeastern SD through the day. Most of these showers
will die down during the afternoon, however there could be some
isolated showers and weak thunderstorms that could develop over far
northeastern SD during the afternoon into the early evening.

An upper-level ridge will be moving over SD and areas to the east
overnight into Saturday as an upper-level low pressure moves in over
the Pacific northwest. This will help to develop high surface
pressure over MN and low surface pressure to the west. With SD stuck
between the two pressure centers, the winds will start to pick up
over western and parts of central SD overnight Friday and then will
spread east Saturday over northeastern SD. Areas west of the James
River could see southeastern winds that get into wind advisory
criteria Saturday afternoon, as there is a 60-80% chance of
sustained winds at or more than 30 mph and a 45-65% chance of the
winds gusting up to and over 45 mph.

The southeasterly wind will help to bring warm moist air to SD
Saturday. This moist air in addition to some directional wind shear
as a surface low pushes in, as well a far bit of instability, will
help to create an environment conductive to severe storm
development. However, multiple models are showing higher CIN values
Saturday afternoon and evening which will likely cap the potential
for severe storms to develop. The NAM and RAP models have a few
hours during the evening and overnight where there are lower CIN
values, during that time something might be able to develop or move
into north central SD from a more conducive environment to the north
or west. There is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms
over Corson county Saturday with a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) over
the rest of central and portions of northeast SD. These storms have
a risk for all hazards.

The warm temperatures will continue to stay over the state through
the weekend into the early work week. Sunday could see temperatures
10-15 degrees warmer than normal and 10-20 degrees warmer than
normal Monday, with the warmest temperatures over eastern SD and
west central MN. Temperatures Sunday and Monday over northeastern SD
will be in the upper 90s to 100 degrees with heat index values
potentially getting up into the low 100s. These temperatures will
increase the danger of heat related illnesses and cause problems for
those sensitive to the heat and without access to cooler areas,
especially since the lower temperatures will only fall in the upper
60 to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will continue at most locations. The exception is
PIR, which is expected to fall to MVFR from 14-17Z Friday. Winds
will remain elevated through the Friday night hours over central
SD, with gusts of 20-25kts at PIR/MBG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...06