Select NOAA-NWS Forecast Office Text Products
(Product availability varies with seasons, forecast office, and weather.)
Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD
To Select Another NWS Office Click on Map or Choose from List
|
| Select Forecast Office: | Select Product: |
698 FXUS63 KABR 260516 AAD AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1116 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Below normal temperatures will continue through the beginning of December. Below zero wind chills are possible over northern SD each morning Thursday through Sunday. Wind chills will fall into the teens to near 20 below zero Sunday, Monday and Tuesday mornings. - Friday through early Saturday morning has a 55-75% chance of snow with a 45-65% chance of more than 2 inches for the northeast third of SD. The heaviest snowfall is expected Friday afternoon through sunrise Saturday morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1113 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 The worst of the system has exited this evening. All headlines have now ended. && .SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 247 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 As of 230pm, current radar indicates the moderate to heavy snow within the wrap around/trowal extending from Brown/Spink Counties and eastward through west central MN. Current temperatures range in the upper 20s into the lower 30s with wind gusts ranging from 30 to near 60mph. We have been dealing with visibilities as low as a fourth of a mile or less at times over portions of north central and northeastern SD due to this heavy snow band/blowing snow. CAMs are consistent on the wrap around snow continuing to push eastward with the last of snow exiting western MN by ~05Z or so. An additional 3 to 6 inches of snow is possible, mainly east of the James River (highest over the Coteau), with the snow coming to an end this evening. With the CAA and tight pressure gradients, northwest winds will continue to be high, with gusts of 30 to near 60 mph, highest James River Valley and eastward through this evening. The combination of falling snow and winds will continue to lead to widespread blowing snow/blizzard conditions especially over the Coteau and eastward into MN through this evening. Through the overnight, gusts of 30-45 mph are possible over and east of the Coteau. As this system departs, high pressure will filter in from the west and over the region Wednesday through Thursday with dry conditions expected. Winds at this time will still be a bit breezy Wednesday between the exiting low and incoming high but will diminish west to east Wednesday afternoon and evening across the CWA. With the colder air moving in behind the low and incoming high, temperatures will drop into the mid to upper teens to lower 20s. Wind chills in the single digits. Highs for Wednesday will only be in the 20s to the lower 30s (near to about 5 degree below average) with wind chills in the teens and 20s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 247 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 The main story for the long term is the Friday/Saturday snow. Models are in much better agreement on the track and timing of a mid level low moving across central SD. This low moves into north central SD Friday afternoon and moves southeast into central SD before turning more easterly and into southern MN by Saturday afternoon. With this increased agreement among the models comes a bit more certainty on snowfall amounts. The NBM is now showing a 45 to 65% chance of more than 2 inches of snow along and northeast of a line from Mobridge to Mitchell. This is a marked increase from yesterday. The chance for more than 4 inches is around 30 to 40% along a line from Ipswich to Clark. Overall, ensemble plumes are in pretty good agreement for around 2-3 inches of snow. The highest chance of snowfall looks to be between 55 and 75% Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning. Temperatures for the period are expected to be much colder than the past couple weeks, at 10 to 15 degrees below average. Sunday and Monday look to be the coldest, approaching 20 degrees below average. Past the end of the period there look to be hints of some warmer weather, although this is far from certain. With the low on Friday, we have a chance for some 35 to 45 mph gusts, mainly along and east of the James River, Friday afternoon and evening. This will reduce visibilities significantly in areas of falling snow. Of course, this will change if the track of the low changes. The NBM is a little on the low side with gusts right now, so this may need to be bumped up in the next couple days. The rest of the period looks to be in our normal 20 to 25 mph gust range. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1113 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG MVFR conditions will improve to VFR on Wednesday as skies clear from west to east. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...20 SHORT TERM...MMM LONG TERM...13 AVIATION...20 |
Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Aberdeen, SD (ABR) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)
Products Courtesy of NOAA-NWS
NWS Information Parsing Script by Ken True at Saratoga Weather - WFO and Products Scripts by SE Lincoln Weather.
Mapping by Curly at Michiana Weather and by Tom at My Mishawaka Weather.