451
FXUS63 KABR 311947
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
147 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures Sunday through Wednesday of next week will be between
5 to 15 degrees above normal. Dry conditions are anticipated through
that same period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

A cold front continues to sink southwesterly over the forecast area
this afternoon, with a bank of fog persisting within the colder air
behind the front. This fog has been fairly transient, moving off
within an hour at most locations. However while fog is present,
visibilities have dropped to between a half and a quarter of a mile.
Behind the front, temperatures and dew points will continue to drop
non-diurnally, as highs today will have been out ahead of the front
this morning. Some strong post-frontal wind gusts (20-30 miles per
hour) will linger through the remainder of the afternoon before
subsiding this evening and overnight. Due to the combination of
these winds and warmer temperatures in that area (due to being out
ahead of the front for so much longer), parts of central South
Dakota will have a High Grassland Fire Danger Index this afternoon.

The upper-level pattern of the ridge over the western CONUS is
expected to continue, leading to benign conditions and temperatures
5-15 degrees above normal over the Aberdeen forecast area from
Thursday through early next week. A few jet streaks are expected to
ride down the front side of the ridge during this time, producing
snow in parts of North Dakota and Minnesota. While these clipper
systems are not currently expected to impact the Aberdeen forecast
area, it will be worth keeping and eye on the overall pattern and
the tracks of these systems, as a slight shift to the southwest
would be enough for some flurries or some minor snowfall to clip
northeastern South Dakota and/or west central Minnesota. Ensemble
cluster analysis shows a signal for the breakdown of this pattern by
mid-week next week, which will support zonal flow aloft and a
potential for a slight decrease in temperatures to near-normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1115 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

The main aviation concern today has been a bank of fog progressing
southwest across the forecast area this morning. Observations have
indicated that visibility has consistently dropped to LIFR to VLIFR
levels at times, as low as 1/4 mile. The fog bank has remained
fairly progressive, and in most locations visibility improves after
around 15-30 minutes. The fog is expected to continue to move
southwest over the next couple of hours before dissipating later
this afternoon. Behind the fog, a stratus deck will linger, mainly
over central South Dakota. While visibility will have improved,
intermittent MVFR conditions are expected through the remainder of
the TAF period.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...BC