136
FXUS63 KABR 031727
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1227 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storm system today into Saturday brings 6 to 12 inches of snow
  across northern SD, with amounts tapering off to around an inch
  closer to I-90.

- Ice accumulations ranging from a few hundredths (mainly around
  and south of Hwy 12) to as much as one-quarter inch (between
  Hwy 14 and 212). Confidence on overall icing accumulations and
  impacts is somewhat low.

- Northwest wind gusts increase to between 25 and 35 mph tonight
  through Saturday. Visibility reductions at times in falling
  snow, but significant impacts from low visibility and blowing
  snow are not expected due to the heavy/wet nature of snow.

- Below normal temperatures remaining in place through the
  beginning of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1014 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Watching the storm system unfold across the region, with moderate
to heavy snow across central/north central SD eastward into the
northern James River valley. Area web cams across north central SD
are showing snow covered roads in most areas, with deteriorating
conditions elsewhere. Still dealing with freezing rain and/or
sleet further south and east from around Hand/Hyde counties
eastward to the Watertown region, and perhaps even north of
Watertown a bit. Wx grids seem to be matching fairly well with
reality. Made some adjustments to PoPs earlier this morning to
match radar trends and expectations over the next few hours. No
major changes to snowfall forecast at this time, but will be
evaluating latest model data later this morning into early
afternoon. Still appears heaviest accumulations will occur over
north central SD into portions of northeast SD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

As of 1 AM CDT, snow will be starting in north central SD, freezing
rain/rain/sleet in south central SD within the next few hours.
Precipitation is expected to continue through the day. Temperatures
across the area are in the mid 20s to low 30s, generally below the
freezing mark. Winds are out of the north between 10 and 15 mph.

QPF has come down a bit and snowfall/ice accumulations have
followed. Timing generally remains the same as previous forecasts.
Freezing rain/rain/sleet has moved into south central SD already
(will move in from the southwest) and will move northeast into
northeast SD through the morning hours east of the James River. Snow
will move into north central SD and east to the James River in the
next few hours and continue through the day. CAMs are showing snow
lasting through at least Saturday morning over north central SD.
Freezing rain/rain/sleet will transition over to snow across
northeast SD east of the James River during the afternoon hours
Friday and continue through Saturday afternoon. Snow accumulations
are expected to be highest over north central SD where snow
accumulations of at least an inch per hour are expected to last for
several hours. Snow accumulations south of Hwy 12 are less certain
due to the change in precipitation type. If temperatures above the
surface stay warmer, more ice accumulation is expected and lower
snow totals. If the mid layers cool faster than forecast, snow
accumulations would be higher and ice totals lower. There is also
the potential for a dry slot to move north and into central SD. This
could make the freezing rain into more of a freezing drizzle and
lessen ice accumulations. At the moment, highest ice accumulations
are expected around and along a line from about Murdo to Watertown,
between 0.2 and 0.25 inches. During the heaviest snow, winds are not
expected to be strong enough to cause more than a few brief periods
of slight reductions in visibility due to blowing snow. Some
drifting may also be possible, but again, not much. Winds do pick up
slightly behind the snow, but still not enough to cause widespread
blowing snow. However, the wind could be strong enough to cause
power outages where power lines are ice covered (mainly south of Hwy
12).

Unfortunately, it doesn`t look like we will spring back to spring
once this system moves out. Models are showing an uptick in
temperatures but that`s not until at least Tuesday. We stay in
northwest flow and several more clipper systems make their way
across the region. At this point, it doesn`t look like we will get
too much in the way of precipitation, but we`re still several days
out so things could change.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

There is lower confidence in the aviation forecast over the next
24 hours based on off and on precipitation rotating across the
region, with drier air moving into ABR/ATY. While precipitation
has switched over the -sn at most locations, light freezing rain
remains at ATY with temperatures of 30F. Temperatures just above
the surface will only increase 1-2F, but cooler air aloft will
result in precipitation mixing with -sn 21-23Z and becoming all
snow by 23Z. The chance of snow will come to an end just after 12Z
at PIR/MBG. However, increasing winds with gusts of 20-30kts will
result in drifting snow through the morning. The impacts from the
increasing winds will depend of the amount and type of snow that
accumulates.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CDT Saturday for SDZ006>008-011-
     018.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for SDZ019>023.

     Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ Saturday for
     SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT Saturday for SDZ045-048-
     051.

MN...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CDT Saturday for MNZ039.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for MNZ046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...06