151
FXUS63 KABR 151527 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1027 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy/areas of drizzle ending this morning, but expected to
  redevelop by early this evening.

- Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal Thursday
  afternoon over eastern South Dakota and west central Minnesota.

- There is a 50-80% chance of showers tonight through Thursday
  evening, with highest chances over north central SD. There is a
  40-70% chance of more than a quarter inch mainly west of the
  Missouri River and north of Hwy 14.

- Windy conditions (NW gusts 30-45 mph) and elevated fire danger
  on Saturday, then cold temperatures (near/below freezing) in the
  low to mid 30s likely Saturday night/Sunday morning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1012 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Let the Dense Fog Advisory expire at 10 AM CDT. Still evidence of
areas of fog out there, but not seeing much in the way of 1/4mi
stuff anymore. Conditions appear to be gradually improving this
morning. Also not seeing a "drizzle signal" on radar. Thinking the
drizzle potential may be done for now. But, by early this evening,
lift within this ongoing stratus layer increases some and the
depth of the stratus layer increases some, and the potential kicks
in for drizzle to return to the forecast area, especially for
areas that don`t see the true rain threat materialize; areas like
northeast South Dakota into west central Minnesota.

UPDATE Issued at 632 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Aviation discussion updated below for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

As of 3 AM CDT, light drizzle continues across the area. Winds
are out of the east at 5-10 mph with temperatures in the mid to
upper 40s. We also have some visibilities less than a quarter mile
around the MO River this morning prompting a dense fog advisory
until 10 AM CDT.

Areas of drizzle will be possible today (exact timing and coverage
is still uncertain) with rain moving in for Thursday as a low
pressure system moves into and across the forecast area. It is
possible that a few storms could develop with maybe one or two
becoming severe over central SD but the chances for severe storms
have decreased since the previous model run. Rainfall
accumulations have a 40-70% chance of exceeding a quarter in
around and west of the Missouri River mainly north of Hwy 14 and a
50-70% chance of exceeding a half inch over far north central SD.
Relatively deep moisture remains over the area through the end of
the period which will keep a thicker layer of clouds overhead and
help keep highs today a bit on the cool side (in the 50s to low
60s) and overnight lows more moderate (in the upper 40s to low
50s). Some WAA ahead of the low will also help with these low
temps. The low will move northeast across the forecast area with a
cold front trailing behind from west to east. Due to this cold
front, high temperatures Thursday are a little uncertain across
most of the forecast area, but kept NBM for now. In general, highs
are expected to reach into the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Thursday night, the surface low and mid-level shortwave trough will
be moving northward into Canada and out of the area. It appears the
frontal boundary should be quickly moving eastward into MN Thursday
evening, thus taking much of the precip chances with it. Inherited
NBM PoPs feature 20-40% chances in the evening, but quickly go
mostly dry after 06Z and into Friday morning.

Upper pattern then shows shortwave energy moving eastward across the
Dakotas on Saturday. Models are trying to generate a bit of precip
across the area, but NBM probability of measurable is generally less
than 20 percent across the region. Current forecast PoPs show
generally slight chances (20%) or dry across the region for
Saturday. What is likely the bigger story on Saturday is the
potential for 35-45 mph northwest wind gusts as a tight pressure
gradient sets up over the region. NBM probability of 24-hr max gusts
of 45 mph or greater ending at 06Z Sunday generally ranges from 40-
60% across central SD. Current forecast RH values in the afternoon
are ranging from 35 to 45 percent, so elevated fire danger for sure
on Saturday.

Will then be focusing on low temperatures Saturday night into Sunday
morning as a surface ridge axis moves through the region. While it
appears from the GEFS/GEPS/ENS pressure pattern Saturday night that
we don`t lay right under the high center, the axis looks substantial
enough to the north to where winds should go fairly light,
especially in valley areas. Current NBM sky grids show clear
conditions, so we should be setting up fairly nicely for near or
even sub-freezing conditions. Cool air mass in place also with 850mb
temps from 0 to +5C. Current forecast is for lows in the low to mid
30s. NBM probability of min temps less than 32 degrees Sunday
morning is around 40-60% in the James River valley into portions of
north central SD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 632 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Areas of FG/BR across the region during the TAF period will bring
periods of MVFR/IFR VSBY with -DZ possible as well. Low clouds
will stick around through the TAF period, with IFR/LIFR CIGs
quite common, although periods of improvements to MVFR are
possible. Low-level wind shear (LLWS) will also be a concern
overnight and have inserted mention of this into the TAFs. Late
tonight, -SHRA/SHRA will be moving northeast into the region with
MVFR VSBY possible.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT