658
FXUS63 KABR 150545 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1145 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures 25-35 degrees above normal will continue through
  the weekend into early next week. Parts of eastern South Dakota
  and western Minnesota may flirt with record highs and record
  warm lows.

- Precipitation chances (60-80%) return Tuesday. Rain is expected
  initially, transitioning to snow Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1136 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 06Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 507 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

No major changes are planned to the current forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

A zonal upper flow pattern across the Northern Plains will maintain
our dry and mild conditions the rest of this weekend into early next
week. Temperatures will continue to reach 25-35 degrees above normal
for mid February! Enjoy it while it`s here because changes to the
pattern still remain in the off`ing for the latter half of next week
as an upper trough carves out a place across the western CONUS and
sends periodic shortwaves through the region giving our area a
better chance for precipitation and cooler temperatures.

A weak trough/frontal boundary slipped southward through the
forecast area earlier today and basically only switched our wind
direction to the north-northwest. Sfc ridging nudges from west to
east-southeast across the area tonight into Sunday morning. We`ll
pick up a south to southwest wind component on Sunday as a weak
sfc low organizes across the western Dakotas. 925mb temperatures
top out from about +7C to +9C in our eastern zones to about a
+10C to +15C across central SD. This should give us another day
with highs in the 50s to low 60s and near record to record setting
high temps for February 15th. Pressure falls of 3-5mb/3hr across
central/eastern SD on Sunday should help kick up a south to
southwest breeze around 25 mph for parts of central/south-central
SD Sunday afternoon. Adjusted dew point temperatures closer to the
NBM25, temperatures up around the NBM90 and bumped up winds just
a bit across south central SD. This put south central SD zones
into RH values around 20 percent during the afternoon. Issued a
Fire Weather Watch to highlight the elevated fire conditions
across our far southern zones of Jones, Lyman and Buffalo
Counties.

After the aforementioned low and associated frontal boundaries move
through the region Sunday night and early Monday, we`ll see a
minimal cooldown on Monday, however high temps will still be well
above normal. The first in a series of upper waves is progged to
arrive around Tuesday into Tuesday night. An increasingly
negatively tilted system looks to develop across the Northern
Plains into Wednesday. Temperatures will be warm enough for just
plain rain by the latter half of Tuesday into Tuesday evening.
Colder air does eventually win out and we should get into a
transition period of rain/snow Tuesday night into early Wednesday
and then wind this system down with all snow by the latter half of
Wednesday. The bulk of it still looks to affect more of our
northern zones and places north and east of us in ND and northwest
MN. NBM probabilities of seeing 2 inches or more of snowfall
Tuesday night through Wednesday night range from 20-40 percent for
locales along and north of the US Hwy 12 corridor with the highest
of those probs across far northeast SD/west central MN. Southwest
flow aloft is expected to persist the latter half of next week
with the potential for additional upper waves and chances for
precipitation. Temperatures will eventually cool back down closer
to mid February normals with highs in the 20s and 30s and
overnight lows in the single digits and teens.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1136 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through Sunday evening.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning from noon to 6 PM CST Sunday for SDZ045-048-051.

MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...Vipond
AVIATION...10