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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD
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625 FXUS63 KABR 242347 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 647 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The next round of rain arrives Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. There is a 40-70% chance to see a quarter of an inch or more through Saturday morning along and east of the James River. - Active pattern continues with additional chances for rain arriving Monday and continuing through Tuesday. There is a 30-55% chance to see an inch of rain or more across the forecast area through that time frame. - Expect temperatures near normal for the next few days, with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Signs point towards a cooldown by mid-week next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 639 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026 See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 218 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026 Tonight, moisture from departing rain showers and light winds will create a prime environment for fog development. While confidence is highest along the North Dakota/South Dakota border, nearly the entire forecast area is expected to see some sort of visibility reduction. Assuming winds stay calm enough, visibility may drop to a mile or lower at times. Fog that develops is generally expected to dissipate by mid-morning on Friday. Focus then shifts to the next round of rain set to move into the forecast area, which comes starting Friday afternoon and continues into Saturday. A shortwave aloft will be the driving force behind this rainfall, bringing rain into the forecast area from south to north. Mainly light showers are expected, although there may be an intermittent flash of lightning or two over northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota early Saturday morning. Highest rainfall totals will be along and east of the James River Valley, where up to a quarter of an inch can be expected, with perhaps up to half an inch falling under the strongest showers and weak thunderstorms. Areas to the west will likely only see a few hundredths at best. After a dry Sunday, the active pattern will continue early next week due to an upper-level trough over the western CONUS developing a low pressure center into the Northern Plains. This system is expected to bring a bit more rain to the area, and ensemble medians from Monday morning through Tuesday evening currently sit at a widespread 0.75"- 1" with the latest runs. Ensemble spread does give about half an inch of wiggle room on either side, so still a bit of uncertainty in the total amounts. However there is a roughly 30-55% chance to see more than an inch of rain through Tuesday evening, generally increasing from west to east. Monday afternoon and evening is the time frame for which both the heaviest rainfall and best chances for thunderstorms are. Some of these storms may be severe according to mid-range probability models. Current probabilities in those models would be akin to a Marginal Risk, but no outlook is in place at this time. As the upper-level trough moves further east, a cooler airmass will take hold, dropping high temperatures to the mid-60s, about 5-10 degrees below normal for this time of year. Once the early week system moves out of the forecast area, ensembles are fairly confident in a dry forecast for the rest of the week, finally breaking the active pattern for a couple of days. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 639 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG The bottom line up front is for flying weather conditions to deteriorate into some form of IFR by 12Z Friday at all four terminals. Areas of fog and drizzle are also expected at times. Right now, clear sky areas (KMBG/KPIR) should end up getting into some fog/low clouds later tonight (after 06Z). Possibly some spotty drizzle at times. By the end of the day Friday, scattered showers should be working up out of Nebraska. Similar story at KABR/KATY; currently under stratus clouds (VFR at KABR for the moment), with KATY reporting reduced (IFR) visibility in fog/drizzle. For, pretty much, the entire TAF valid period, these two terminals will be socked in with low clouds and fog/drizzle at times. By or shortly beyond the TAF valid period (Friday evening), the showers lifting up out of Nebraska and Iowa should be heading for KABR/KATY. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...10 DISCUSSION...BC AVIATION...10 |
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