118
FXUS63 KABR 272346 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
646 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain/sprinkles, along with gusty northerly winds will
  subside later this evening and through the overnight hours.

- High temperatures 5 to 15 degrees below normal expected
  through the middle of the week. Highs are expected to be in
  the upper 40s to 50s through that period.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 638 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 154 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

A surface low pressure and upper level shortwave will exit the CWA
this evening, leaving behind dry, but cool conditions overnight. A
surface high pressure will slide southward some tonight, allowing
for temperatures to drop into the mid to upper 20s for most
locations.

Another shortwave, currently over Nevada, will track northeast
tonight, with showers possibly moving into western South Dakota by
12Z Tuesday. Various hi-res models are showing light showers moving
into the far southwest CWA, Stanley, Jones, Lyman area mainly after
18Z. The chance of pcpn is 30 to 60 percent. The 12Z HREF
probability of seeing 0.01 inches of QPF is 20 to 50 percent, with
the highest prob over Jones County. By 0Z Wednesday, the NBM has a
broad area of 20 pops, while some CAMS suggests mostly sprinkles
embedded within northwest flow aloft.

A stronger shortwave should progress southeastward across the region
on Wednesday, bringing a 25 to 45 percent chance for showers, mainly
during the afternoon hours. Beyond Wednesday, the weather pattern
will feature mainly dry conditions, with high temperatures warming
into the 60s for the weekend. The deterministic ECMWF and GFS both
suggest an active weather pattern early next week, with additional
showers, and the return to below average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 638 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Areas of MVFR CIGs remaining across the region this evening,
mostly in KATY/KPIR at the start of the TAF period. Forecast
improvements to VFR later this evening, while north-northwest
surface winds also subside. MVFR CIGs are forecast to develop
across KPIR Tuesday afternoon, with a chance (PROB30) for -RA.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...SD
AVIATION...TMT