925
FXUS63 KABR 150527 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1127 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry with temperatures through mid week running some 10 to 20
  degrees above normal.

- South winds gusting up to 35 to 45 mph will persist into
  Sunday. The corridor of highest winds slowly shifts east
  Sunday night into Monday.

- There is presently a 50 to 70 percent chance of precipitation
  Friday night through Saturday of next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1125 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Updated discussion for the 06Z TAFs below.

UPDATE Issued at 804 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

As of 8pm, temperatures across the region range in the lower
30s to the mid 40s, warmest across central SD and coldest over
far NESD into western MN. With high pressure to our east and a
broad area of low pressure to our west, winds remain breezy, per
marginally steep pressure gradients. Wind gusts through the
overnight are forecast to range between 20 to potentially up to
30kts, highest over central SD. Otherwise WAA flow is leading
to some lower stratus clouds, tracking northward, west of the
James River. REFS indicates these clouds possibly dissipating
through the overnight with some potential of lower stratus
developing over NESD through the morning. A bit lower confidence
on this. Otherwise dry weather expected. Forecast remains on
track.


UPDATE Issued at 509 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Updated discussion for the 00Z TAFs below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 105 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

At 1PM CDT, skies are mostly sunny. Some daytime heating/mixing
strato-cu has developed/moved north into portions of the Missouri
River valley region (west river). Temperatures have been warming
through the 40s across much of the region. The breezy to windy 15 to
30 mph south-southeast winds with gusts up to 40 mph continue, as
well, mainly throughout and west of the James River valley.

This highly amplified and blocky Omega block in place across NOAM
(upper ridge axis centered on this CWA) will persist through Sunday
night, according to consensus model guidance. The upper wave pattern
undergoes some changes between Monday and the end of the period,
though, as a couple of chunks of energy move into the western CONUS
Monday and Tuesday, and eventually over to the east coast.
Models/qpf guidance continue to reduce the amount of precipitation
potential with the first area of low pressure (Wednesday
night/Thursday system) as it works its way across the nation`s mid-
section mid-week. Guidance is still indicating precipitation
potential (higher probability of rain than snow), though, with the
late week system/upper trof working east across the CONUS. Then, the
upper ridge is supposed to pump back up across the middle two-thirds
of the country.

Both ensemble probabilities and deterministic thermal progs support
warm (warmer than November normals) temperatures through, at least,
Tuesday of next week, perhaps even Wednesday depending on the
amount/duration of cloudiness, before any low level CAA can happen.

These breezy/windy southerly winds of 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts
are progged to continue through Monday. Sunday night, there could
even be a moderately strong downslope wind event in the lee of the
Prairie Coteau.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1125 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. South
to southeast winds between 10 to 20 knots will continue with gusts
up to 30 knots. Low level wind shear continues to be possible across
portions of north central and northeastern SD. This looks to mainly
affect KABR and KMBG through 12Z Sunday where gusts of 40-50kts are
possible around 2000ft out of the south/southeast. LLWS is also
possible again Sunday evening into Monday morning, mainly east of
the Missouri River, affecting KABR/KATY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...17
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...17