664
FXUS63 KABR 151730
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1230 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 30-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms over
  mainly north central to northeastern SD and western MN. Wind
  gusts of 50-60mph and small hail will be possible in the
  stronger storms.

- Widespread precipitation chances of 70-90% move into mainly
  north central to northeastern SD/west central MN Wednesday,
  along with some weak thunderstorms. No severe weather is
  expected at this time.

- There is a 70% chance of winds out of the northwest gusting
  greater than 45 mph Wednesday afternoon west of the Missouri
  River.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

UPDATE for 18Z TAF issuance discussion below.

UPDATE Issued at 725 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Winds will gust 30 to near 40 mph this afternoon. Given the
already gusty winds and mixing up to around 700mb, strong
showers or thunderstorms mid afternoon into the early evening
hours will be capable of producing gusts in the 50 to 60 mph
range. Small hail is also a possibility, mainly near and north
of U.S. Highway 12.

There is around a 30% chance of rainfall in excess of 0.10", or
a wetting rain, for areas north and east of Aberdeen this
afternoon through this evening. Any stronger shower or
thunderstorm will be able to produce a quick 0.10" of rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

As of 1 AM CDT, temperatures are in the low 50s with winds out of
the west at less than 10 mph. Some clouds are moving in from the
north that will continue to spread south through the day. There is
also a chance for some showers and weak thunderstorms this afternoon
across north central and northeast SD. No severe weather is expected
at this time. Along with this chance of storms comes some fairly
strong wind gusts out of the northwest today at 35 to 40 mph,
highest over north central SD.

The best chance for widespread precip still looks to be Tuesday
night through Wednesday evening as a low pressure system moves
towards and across the region. Models are now showing the center of
the low pressure moving across SD instead of ND. This hasn`t changed
the precipitation forecast much, however, winds Wednesday afternoon
have increased and spread farther east. The current forecast has
gusts of 55 mph over north central and south central SD. The
probability of gusts over 55 mph is around 50% in south central SD
and less than 50% elsewhere. Winds above 45 mph are expected to
spread as far east as the James River with gusts above 30 mph
expected west of the Sisseton Hills/Prairie Coteau region. Another
thing that hasn`t changed is the forecast high temperatures through
the week and into the weekend. We are still expecting near to
slightly below average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Expect mainly VFR conditions to continue. Daytime heating and
strong mixing today accompanying a surface trough along with
persistent northwesterly flow aloft with an embedded wave will
help bring showers and thunderstorms to the area (mainly north
of PIR). Given winds already gusting 22-33kts it won`t take much
from a stronger shower or thunderstorm to bring stronger winds
with gusts nearing 40kts or higher to the surface this
afternoon. The loss of daytime heating will result in weakening
showers and thunderstorm activity this evening with a clearing
sky anticipated.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...06