216
FXUS63 KABR 041833
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
133 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler than normal temperatures continue tonight into
  Wednesday, with lows tonight in the 40s to low 50s and highs
  Wednesday warming into the 70s to low 80s. Temperatures will
  steadily warm into the weekend before cooling back down early
  next week.

- There are a few windows (low probability) of opportunity for
  night-time showers and thunderstorms later this week,
  primarily late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning and
  again late Friday night into Saturday morning. But, right
  now, the best chance for widespread rainfall (30-50 percent
  chance) is lining up for Sunday evening through Monday
  morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 128 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

At 1 PM CDT, skies are partly to mostly sunny. Some smoke aloft can
be seen across the southern two-thirds of the CWA. The near surface
smoke has all but moved out of the CWA to the south. Temperatures
are warming through the 60s into the low 70s this hour (a good
10 to 20 degrees cooler than this time yesterday). Winds are from
the northwest 5 to 15 mph with some occasionally higher gusts.

With lower heights aloft over the CWA and a decent low level CAA/dry
air advection sequence ongoing, today and Wednesday continue to look
cooler than normal for (both high and low) temperatures. Went
around 3-4 degrees cooler than NBM guidance for tonight`s low
temperature forecast, based on how the NBM did with last night`s
low temperature forecast (too warm).

Ensemble clusters analysis and deterministic GSM output continue
to support a mostly dry extended forecast with a semi-flat
upper ridge west/upper trof central and east CONUS in place,
such that the steering flow is expected to become west-
northwesterly by Wednesday night through Tuesday of next week.
Expecting more than one night of low level jet development under
this set-up. Once return flow low level moisture regains a
foot-hold over this region, will be applying scrutiny to each of
these nocturnal low level jet scenarios to see if/when precip
mention can be inserted into the forecast. There is still quite
a bit of timing/location uncertainty surrounding it (further out
in time), but guidance is tipping its hat to the potential for,
at least, one round of rainfall between Sunday afternoon and
Tuesday night. At the moment, there is some halfway decent
agreement on precipitation chances Sunday evening through Monday
morning.

The low level airmass in place is more than 2 standard deviations
below climo normal (850hpa) right now and is forecast to be more
than 1 standard deviation below normal on Wednesday. A slow and
steady warm-up into more than 1 standard deviation above climo
normal (850hpa) temperatures is forecast into Thursday and Friday,
peaking over the weekend, before things cool back down to closer to
climo normal heading into next week. It still looks like the
(northwest flow) pattern aloft will support Canada-sourced cold
frontal passages every couple of days, helping to stave off another
heat wave. However, models have been showing some variability in the
placement/movement/strength of the western CONUS upper level ridge
over the past few days. This, ultimately, reflects in the
temperature forecast, as a stronger upper ridge further east over
the CONUS would mean more heat over this CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...10