496
FXUS63 KABR 090120 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
820 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record/near record temperatures today with highs in the 60s to
  low 70s. High to very high grassland fire danger across central
  SD into the early evening hours.

- System affecting northern SD Monday/Monday night may bring
  around an inch of snow accumulation. Cooler on Monday behind a
  passing cold front tonight.

- Another system for Tuesday/Tuesday night has the potential to
  bring around 1 to perhaps 3 inches of snow to the region.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 811 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

No changes planned to the tonight period. Surface cold front is
analyzed up in western North Dakota, still an hour or two away
from Bismarck. Short range/rapid update guidance is still progging
this boundary to push south through this CWA between ~04Z and
~10Z. Monitoring cold-fropa wind-shift obs for strong sustained
winds or gusts, as the low level CAA is, at least, moderately
strong tonight and the 6-hourly pressure rises are on the order of
6-10hpa over the CWA.

UPDATE Issued at 615 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 154 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

West-southwest wind gusts are beginning to increase to 30-40mph
across portions of the region, although it`s been noted winds have
taken a bit longer to get gusty than originally anticipated. Also
noting obs showing RH falling into the 23-30 percent range across
central/south central SD. Will continue to monitor fire weather this
afternoon and the elevated fire danger conditions across central SD.

Cold front will drop south through the CWA overnight, entering
northern SD between 03Z and 06Z, then likely clearing the CWA by 12Z
Monday. Low-level cold air advection with northerly winds developing
through the nighttime hours as we go from 925mb temps from +15C to
+20C this afternoon, down to 0C to +5C (northern CWA) by Monday
morning. Will see highs drop back down into the 40s and 50s for most
areas, although the far southwest CWA may still see readings closer
to 60 degrees.

Low pressure will then move east-southeast across southern SD and NE
Monday evening/overnight. Models have been consistent in showing a
band of rain/snow (mostly snow) moving eastward across southern ND
into northern SD for a few days now. Highest precip chances (50-60
percent) exist across the northern CWA Monday evening. Thermal
profiles suggest mostly all snow closer to the ND/SD border, with
potential for rain or rain/snow mix further south in the CWA.
Highest NBM probability of 24-hr snowfall greater than an 1 inch
lies just over the border across southwest/south central ND, where
values range from about 40 to 55 percent. Across northern SD (north
of Hwy 12) values are lower and generally range from 20 to 40
percent. WPC Super Ensemble Plumes generally have members showing
around an inch or less accumulation for the northern CWA.

Will then be watching another area of low pressure which looks to
move eastward across the Plains Tuesday/Tuesday night. This system
looks like it has the potential to be slightly stronger than the
Monday system, but models/ensembles still not generating a huge
amount of precip or anything like that. Again, it appears warm
enough to where we will be dealing with mixed precip late Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday evening before precip type potential becomes
all snow. Current forecast and available data has the look and feel
(for the time being) of a 1 to 3 inch-type event, but will continue
to monitor strength trends. NBM probability of 24-hr snowfall 2
inches or greater ending at 18Z Wednesday is generally 20-40 percent
across the CWA, so a stronger signal for 2 inches versus the Monday
system. Super Ensemble Plumes reveal higher end scenarios are more
in the 2 to 4 inch range. 90th percentile amounts off the NBM are
actually more in the 4 to 6 inch range across the eastern CWA, so
some trends to keep an eye on for sure as we approach Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 615 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. There may be a
short period of low-level wind shear (LLWS) conditions at
KMBG/KABR and KATY this evening and have inserted mention of
this. Otherwise, westerly surface winds this evening will switch
to a northerly direction overnight.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...10