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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD
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562 FXUS63 KABR 022316 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 516 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of light snow/snow showers through tonight, with accumulations less than an inch. Mixed precip (rain/freezing rain) possible across central SD, but only a light glaze possible. Overall, minor/limited impacts with this system. - Weak system will bring additional chances (20-30%) for light snowfall under an inch for Tuesday night. - Expect above normal temperatures (by 5 to 20 degrees) Wednesday through at least Monday of next week. The warmest air will be overhead Thursday, with highs in the 40s to low 50s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 514 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 The forecast is on track this evening. No major changes are planned just some hourly radar-based tweaks. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 331 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 Mid-level shortwave energy is dropping southeast across the Dakotas while a weak surface wave rides along the stationary front draped from north to south across the western Dakotas. Continue to see areas of light snow and/or snow showers moving southeast across the Dakotas, with more upstream across ND set to make its way through the area into the evening hours. Threat for mixed precipitation exists across central SD in the form of rain/freezing rain, although any ice accumulations are expected to be rather light with limited impacts. Same with snowfall, generally light accumulations under 1 inch expected and not anticipating anything other than minor impacts from this wave as it moves through. Still dealing with plenty of stratus clouds across the region as well, with signs pointing to this sticking around through much of the night. In fact, reinforcements in cloud cover may be arriving tomorrow so looking at a mostly cloudy short term period. Increased sky cover a bit in the grids/forecast through Tuesday evening. Next chance for precip across the region looks to be Tuesday night, but again it`s just a weak wave of low pressure with only minor/light amounts expected. The rest of the forecast from Wednesday through next Monday is a dry one, with a lack of any significant systems affecting the Northern Plains for the time being. Focus is still on the warming temperatures set to overspread the area mid/late week into the upcoming weekend. Still appears the peak in temperatures will be on Thursday, with Grand Ensemble showing +10C to +15C across central SD by 00Z Friday. Inherited NBM high temps show widespread 40s and 50s across the region, even flirting with 60 degrees across the far west/southwestern CWA. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 514 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG A mix of cigs with MVFR/IFR prevailing overnight is expected through the period. Occasional IFR vsby in light snow is also possible at KABR and KATY this evening. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...20 DISCUSSION...TMT AVIATION...20 |
Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Aberdeen, SD (ABR) Office Forecast Discussions.
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