662
FXUS63 KABR 091142 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
642 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Slight (Level 2 of 5) to Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for
  severe thunderstorms is in effect Thursday afternoon through
  evening for north central and central South Dakota. Hail of 1
  inch in diameter and wind gusts of 60 to 70 miles per hour
  will be the main threats.

- A warming trend begins by the end of the week, and highs may
  potentially hit triple digits Sunday through Tuesday. This
  level of heat may cause widespread heat related impacts
  particularly for those without adequate cooling and those
  sensitive to heat.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 638 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

High pressure center to the north promotes light winds this morning,
shifting from northerly to southerly this morning through this
afternoon as the high pressure center continues to progress
eastward. The light winds and recent moisture may support fog
formation this morning, particularly over the James River Valley and
on the eastern side of the Prairie Coteau. Mainly high clouds this
evening, which should be enough for radiative cooling to be
sufficient for full saturation as well. Fog may become dense at
times, and visibility may drop below a mile in some places.

Focus then shifts to the potential severe weather risk this
afternoon and evening. The main threat area will be over north
central and central South Dakota, where a Slight to Marginal
Risk is in place. CAPE/Shear combination of 1000-2000 J/kg and
roughly 30 knots will be present, supporting severe hail as a
threat. Model soundings are also fairly consistent in resolving
strong DCAPE of roughly 1500 J/kg and low-level lapse rates near
dry adiabatic, meaning that severe wind will also be a threat.
Tornado risk appears to be minimal at this point, and the
heaviest storms will mainly steer clear of the areas that
received flooding with Tuesday night`s storms, so flooding is
not a major concern. The exception to this would be along the
Campbell/Walworth County border north of Selby, which was the
area over north central South Dakota with the most saturated
soils. While the bulk of the severe threat will be during the
afternoon and evening hours, there is some signal in the high-
resolution guidance for some showers to weak thunderstorms to
continue through the overnight.

Upper-level ridge builds over the region beginning this weekend.
This ridging will allow a warmer airmass to take hold of the region,
leading to a warmup to temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above normal.
By Sunday and Monday, much of the forecast area will have the
potential to reach highs of 100 degrees or higher. Latest NBM
probabilities of highs on Sunday and Monday reaching 100 degrees or
better have trended downward over the latest forecast cycle. Highest
probabilities on Sunday are highest along and west of the Missouri
River, ranging from 50 to 70 percent. Moving east, probabilities
drop off to less than 10 percent east of the James River. A bit of
an increase on Monday in the 50 to 70 percent probability range,
which extends from the James River and west. East of the James,
probability of 100 degrees drops to around 10 to 30 percent.
Ensemble clusters show no signs of the upper-level ridge
deteriorating or progressing eastward, meaning that these above
normal temperatures are likely to stick around through next week. By
Monday and Tuesday, the NWS Heat Risk shows high probabilities of
reaching the Major Stage. This indicates the potential for
widespread heat related impacts, particularly for those without
adequate cooling and those sensitive to heat. Pockets of Extreme
Heat Risk may be possible as well as the week progresses, the
highest level on the scale. This indicates the potential for
extended periods of heat related impacts, and caution should be
taken during these times. A Heat Headline will more than likely be
needed for the start of next week, but nothing will be issued at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 638 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

After the patchy coverage of fog creating sub-VFR conditions at
KABR/KPIR go away within the next hour or two, VFR conditions
should return. VFR flying weather is currently forecast for the
rest of the TAF period. Generally between 00Z and 06Z, some
showers/storms are forecast to develop out west and move
into/near the KMBG/KPIR terminals. Continuing the PROB30
mention for this potential.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...10