189
FXUS63 KABR 112323 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
623 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler temperatures will persist in the coming days. Expect
  highs in the mid 50s to upper 60s through at least the
  middle of the week. These temperatures are near mid-October
  normals.

- Some post-frontal showers linger through Monday. Generally
  less than a tenth of an inch is expected, but localized
  areas along the North Dakota/South Dakota border may see a
  tenth to a quarter of an inch of rain. Additional rain chances
  align with Wednesday/Wednesday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 611 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Updated discussion for the 00Z TAFs below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 131 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

At 1 PM CDT, it was cloudy, except over the southeast corner of the
CWA where it was sunny. The cold front that began entering the
northwest corner of the CWA yesterday afternoon has finally made it
to the southeast corner of the CWA. Temperatures under the clouds
behind the cold front are only in the 50s and 60s, some 15 to 25+
degrees colder than this time yesterday. Where it`s been sunny,
temperatures have warmed into the upper 60s to mid 70s. Winds are
from the north generally 10 to 20 mph with some occasionally higher
gusts. Along and south of the cold frontal boundary, winds are light
southerly (less than 10 mph) or light and variable.

As ensemble clusters analysis and deterministic model solutions work
to close the gap on range of potential outcomes beyond the Wednesday
daytime forecast period, it would appear the latest iteration of
models may be trying to take a portion of Rex Block closed low off
to the east with energy working down the back of the western CONUS
upper level ridge, while retrograding a portion of that closed low
southwestward toward the southwestern CONUS. By Sunday (day 7),
models forecast the amplified pattern to de-amplify into a nearly
zonal flow.

Still looking at pretty minimal precipitation amounts potential
tonight through Tuesday morning while southwest flow aloft is able
to draw a few transient shortwaves over the region. Upper level col
region is in place Tuesday/Tuesday night, so not much of a chance
for precipitation at that time. Wednesday/night could see some of
the deformation/WAA zone precipitation potential from this Rex Block
closed low over the intermountain west extending up into the CWA.
Otherwise, most of the rest of the 7-day forecast is dry.

Temperatures, for the most part, are not going to move much off
their current diurnal range (lows in the 30s/40s and highs in the
50s/60s) with low level thermal advection remaining rather static
during a lot of the 7-day forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 611 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

MVFR/IFR cigs per low level stratus clouds continue to blanket
most of the region with the exception of KATY still at VFR cigs.
KATY is forecast to drop to sub VFR cigs later on this evening.
Patchy/areas of fog could be possible as well over and along
the Sisseton Hills that may drop KATY to LIFR at times before or
around sunrise Monday morning. Isolated to widely scattered
rain showers are forecast to pass over north central through
northeastern SD early Monday morning though Monday afternoon,
mainly affecting KABR/KMBG terminals. Therefore, Prob30s for
light rain showers are mentioned in these TAFs. Northerly winds
will persist throughout the TAF valid period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MMM
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...MMM