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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD
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541 FXUS63 KABR 092104 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 404 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A band of snow sets up along the ND/SD state line this evening. Overall accumulations for the area should be light, but a localized narrow ribbon of 2 to 4 inches accumulation is not out of the question. - Another system for Tuesday/Tuesday night has the potential to bring inch or two to mainly central and eastern SD. - A clipper Thursday will be associated with mainly strong winds, though confidence is not high enough at this time for specific ranges. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 403 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026 Area of snow is moving eastward across southern ND, with an embedded heavier band of moderate snow along/near I-94. As we approach the evening hours, this area of snow may begin to re-orient itself southward towards the state line, or even into northern SD. Latest run of models generally show the current situation fairly well, but still differ on the overall areal coverage and duration of any areas of light snow and/or banded snow features that may develop over northern SD towards Hwy 12, or even as far south as Hwy 212 during the evening hours. Frontogenesis aloft does shift southward a bit over the next several hours, perhaps giving the northern CWA a better chance for snow development. There are hints in hi-res models of a few banded features, or areas of light/moderate snow developing over the northern CWA during the evening hours. Early on, there still may be mixed precip to deal with in any furthest south extent of precip that develops this evening, mainly around Hwy 12/212, before snow becomes the primary precip type. In general, models/ensemble data giving around an inch accumulation over the northern CWA, but still seeing evidence of perhaps some higher totals within any east/west oriented bands that develop. This could bring localized areas of 2 to 4 inches. WPC Super Ensemble Plumes continue to show some higher end scenarios where 2 to 3.5 inches are possible over portions of the eastern CWA. Will then be looking at Tuesday/Tuesday night for the next round of mixed precip and snowfall. More of a broader area of precip with this system it would appear. Current forecast still only shows around an inch or less of snow accumulation, but some higher amounts around 2 or 3 not out of the question as NBM 90th percentile amounts are closer to 3 or 4 inches. Rest of the 7-day forecast looks fairly active, with a system sliding southeast on Thursday, bringing windy conditions and perhaps some fire weather concerns over the far southwest CWA where RH is forecast to bottom out around 25 percent and wind gusts could exceed 30-35 mph. Potential for a stronger storm system this weekend, but plenty of time to watch this and take note of changes/trends that are taking place. As of now, models do show snowfall overspreading the area with light/moderate accumulations possible. Starting to see some 30-35 percent chances for greater than 3 inches of snowfall off the Grand Ensemble. X && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon hours. Later this evening and overnight, an area of -SN/SN will move east across southern ND into northern SD, possibly affecting KABR/KMBG with IFR VSBY. MVFR CIGs are also forecast to move into northern SD later tonight into early Tuesday morning, so included mention of this for KMBG/KABR/KATY. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TMT AVIATION...TMT |
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NWS Aberdeen, SD (ABR) Office Forecast Discussions.
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