020
FXUS63 KABR 121133 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
533 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures today, 15-20 degrees warmer than normal,
  will warm up to 20-25 degrees warmer than normal this this
  Friday and into the weekend.

- Precipitation chances return Tuesday (40-60% northern SD) with
  rain initially during the day, then rain/snow mix Tuesday night.
  Early indications suggest rainfall less than 0.50in and snow
  around an inch or less.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 523 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1236 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Fairly calm winds over central and northeastern SD and some higher
relative humidity values will lead to some patchy fog developing
along the eastern edge of the Prairie Coteau late tonight into the
morning. This fog should dissipate fairly quickly once the sun
rises, but anyone driving through these areas should make sure to
take caution as the fog could cause localized areas of lower
visibilities. High pressure starts to build into central and
northeastern SD today as the low surface pressure to the south of
the area moves away. Dry air also moves in aloft over central and
northeastern SD early this morning, which helps to keep
precipitation out of the area and sunny skies around today and
Friday. Temperatures today will be 15-20 degrees warmer than normal
and will warm Friday into the weekend to be 20-25 degrees warmer
than normal.

A surface trough will be moving over central and northeastern SD
Friday night into Saturday. Then a frontal boundary will move
through the area Sunday evening into Monday. During these days, the
dry air is still forecast to be aloft and will help to keep
precipitation from developing along these boundaries. The wind on
the other hand will change as these boundaries move through.
Saturday, the wind direction will shift from the south to be from
the northwest after the trough moves through. The winds look to not
strengthen too much over central and northeastern SD, though
stronger winds due to downsloping could occur along the eastern side
of the Prairie Coteau. When the cold front moves through Sunday
night into Monday, there is the potential for the winds to see some
strengthening along the eastern edge of the Prairie Coteau again due
to downsloping. Models vary a bit on this and have gone back and
forth on whether there will be the forcing to cause the
strengthening downsloping winds, so an eye will need to be kept on
this over the next few model runs. The frontal passage also looks to
cause temperatures to cool slightly Monday, but they still will be
15-20 degrees warmer than normal.

The next chance for precipitation looks to come Monday night into
Tuesday. An upper-level shortwave/trough (depending on the model)
moves over SD. At the surface, a low pressure will move through,
causing precipitation to occur. There is still a lot of variability
in the model as to the location, timing, and track of the
trough/shortwave aloft and the low at the surface. For example, some
models have the surface low moving over NE, some have it over SD,
and others have it over ND. This large variability in the models
leads to low confidence in forecasting exact details, and so an eye
will also need to be kept on this system to see how future model
runs handle it.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 523 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period, along with
light surface winds.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...TMT