443
FXUS63 KABR 040659
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1259 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal high temperatures to continue through Monday.
Today and Thursday will be the warmest, around 20 degrees above
normal, with highs in the 50s and 60s.

- There is a 40-60% chance of precipitation Thursday night into
Friday night, with most of the precipitation falling Friday
afternoon into Friday night as light rain transitions to a wintry
mix of rain, snow, or freezing rain, and then to all snow late
Friday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1258 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

As of 1 AM CST, there are some areas of dense fog across portions
of central and northeast SD this morning reducing visibilities to a
quarter mile or less. A dense fog advisory is in effect for the more
widespread reduction of visibility along and east of the James River
Valley. This is expected to dissipate later this morning.
Temperatures around the region are in the upper 20s to low 30s under
clear skies with light winds mainly out of the south.

Models have somewhat weakened the low tracking across our area
Friday and moved it slightly southward. This has resulted in a
reduction to QPF. Models have also somewhat backed off on WAA in the
mid layers and reduced freezing rain potential significantly. The
remaining chances are 15% or less and concentrated over the northern
portion of the Prairie Coteau. Snow chances remain somewhat the same
with the probability of an inch or more of snow between 20 and 40%.
As an overview, Thursday evening starts with rain before
transitioning through rain/snow mix to just snow from northwest to
southeast early Friday morning through Friday evening. Precipitation
is expected to move east and out of the region late Friday evening.
Winds during this event look to gust 25 to 35 mph but with snow
ratios close to 10:1 (heavier, wetter snow), blowing snow is not
expected to be much of an issue at the moment. Friday evening, there
is some CAPE over far eastern SD that could result in a few rumbles
of thunder. Models are showing a pretty quick warm up Saturday
through Monday with highs potentially reaching almost 70 degrees in
south central SD Monday afternoon. Temperatures look to cool down
Tuesday and Wednesday as another low moves across the region. This
looks to bring another round of snow, although its far to early to
say where or how much with any sort of certainty.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1126 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

FG/BR continues to affect parts of northeast SD, with VSBY below 1SM
at times, especially at KATY where VSBY has been 1/4SM. IFR CIGs
possible as well over KATY and to a lesser extent in KABR.
Improvements to VFR are forecast on Wednesday, but FG/BR forecast
once again over northeast SD (KABR/KATY) Wednesday night. Across
KPIR/KMBG, VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CST this morning for SDZ007-008-
     011-019>023.

MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CST this morning for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...SD