451
FXUS63 KABR 062325 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
525 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Colder temperatures are expected tonight with overnight readings
  in the teens and 20s.

- Mild air returns this weekend with above normal temperatures in
  the 30s and 40s east to the 50s to low 60s west.

- Next chances for measurable precipitation (20-30%) will be
  Tuesday into Wednesday of next week, but confidence in model
  guidance remains low. Current trends still indicate that a weak
  system or two will move through the area.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 521 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

The forecast remains on track this evening. No major changes are
planned.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

Stratus has persisted all day across most of central and northeast
SD with the only breaks in the overcast across far northeast SD and
west central MN and portions of the Missouri Valley. Temperatures
have remained steady in the mid 20s to low 30s across our eastern
CWA to the upper 30s to low 40s across the Missouri Valley. A cold
front swept southwest across our SD zones today and more or less
will become stationary and wash out across central SD tonight.
Behind this boundary, a sfc ridge axis will continue pushing south
across the Dakotas/MN border this evening before turning eastward
overnight. Weak cold air advection is progged to continue through
late evening across our eastern zones with 925mb temps falling to
-5C to -10C across northeast SD and west central MN. NBM
probabilities of seeing overnight temperatures in the teens range
from 70-100 percent across this area, mainly east of the James
Valley. Central SD will remain more mild with readings in the 20s to
around 30. With the sfc high drifting east after midnight and a
southerly wind kicking in, temps will go steady if not slowly rise a
couple degrees prior to sunrise across our eastern zones.

With high pressure on the east side of the forecast area and that
stationary boundary across central and western sections of SD and
weak low level steering flow into the overnight, the stratus will
persist and remain "trapped" between the Missouri and James Rivers.
After midnight and during the pre-dawn hours, we should see some
erosion of this cloud deck but some will persist into the daytime
hours. The pressure gradient tightens during the day leading to
gusty southerly winds, especially east of the Missouri Valley. NBM
probabilities of seeing wind gusts greater than 30 mph range from 50-
80 percent east of the Missouri Valley into the northeast corner of
SD. Warm air advection on Saturday will boost 925mb temps back into
a +5C(east) to +15C(west) range. A warm front/attached sfc low is
expected to push east across the CWA Saturday afternoon and Saturday
night with little fanfare other than switching winds back to the
northwest. The warmest air looks to keep residence across central SD
heading into the latter half of the weekend. However, that
aforementioned attached low will pull down some cooler air behind it
across northeast SD/west central MN with 925mb temps falling below
0C again. So, even though above normal readings are still expected,
locales along and east of the James Valley will see highs on Sunday
in the upper 30s to mid 40s. West of these areas, highs should make
it back into the 50s with low 60s possible West River.

Next week will continue to feature a similar pattern through Monday
with mild and dry conditions continuing. Beyond that, a bit of
change still looks to be probable. Quasi-zonal flow takes hold as
the upper flow pattern becomes more split across the CONUS by the
middle of next week. The prognosis remains that our region could see
a couple of weaker upper waves passing through the upper flow
pattern that will bring in our next best chance of precip Tuesday
and Wednesday. Confidence remains low under this type of pattern so
we`ll continue to advertise a 20-30 percent chance for
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 521 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

MVFR stratus will very slowly erode from the southwest and
northeast through Saturday morning. KABR will likely see the
MVFR/low VFR cigs hold in place the longest.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...20
DISCUSSION...Vipond
AVIATION...20