125
FXUS63 KABR 242321
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
521 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Northwest winds gusting 30 to 40 mph behind a cold front today.
The combination of gusty winds and dry fuels lead to High Grassland
Fire Danger over portions of central South Dakota today.

- Snow accumulations of an inch or less expected along and southwest
of a line from Mobridge to Huron on Wednesday. However, locally
higher snowfall amounts of 2 to 3+ inches could be possible within
any narrow band or bands of snow that may develop. Southwest of
Pierre, temperatures will remain warm enough to support rain or a
mix of rain and snow.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 519 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

No major changes in the short term. Focus still is on light snow
for tomorrow. See below for an update to the aviation discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1129 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

The cold front continues to push south this morning with
temperatures falling behind it across the northern counties
including in Mobridge and Aberdeen. Radar returns have been running
hot compared to sfc obs with dry mid levels and 7 to 15 degree
dewpoint spreads to overcome. Sfc high pressure builds in across the
east tonight into Wednesday morning.

That sfc high retreats northeast on Wednesday, but does potentially
keep northeast SD and west central MN from seeing any precipitation
with the waa band that develops tomorrow. As of 12z model runs,
precip sets up southwest of a line from Mobridge to Huron Wednesday
morning. Everywhere southwest of Pierre should remain warm enough to
see rain or a rain/snow mix. Northeast of Pierre up to an inch of
snow is forecast, but there are still "outliers" that indicate a
heavier, narrow band of snow is possible with 3 to 4 inches of
accumulation. May need to be staring at the white stuff falling from
the sky at this point, though, before we can pinpoint where that
sets up.

Drier and warmer conditions move in for the latter half of the work
week before another cold front drops in Friday night into Saturday
morning. Additional light snow is expected with this front on
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 519 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions for the most part. KABR is getting a little sun
driven destabilization MVFR CIGS which are expected to dissipate
in the next hour or two. Most of the focus for weather is at KPIR
where snow will pass through the area around late morning through
mid afternoon with a mix of MVFR CIGS/VISBY. Cant rule out some
IFR but at this point not confident enough for inclusion in TAFS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...07
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...07