806
FXUS63 KABR 260806
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
306 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- More widespread rains will shift back into the region today
  and tonight as a storm system pulls out of the Rockies into
  the Northern Plains. Highest probabilities of seeing one inch
  or more during the next 24 hours range from 50-80 percent from
  south central SD into northeast SD and west central MN.

- Rain and low clouds will bring visibility down to around 2 miles
  or less this afternoon into this evening.

- Snow will mix in with the rain later today into tonight across
  parts of central SD. Minor accumulations, especially on grassy
  surfaces, will be possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Widespread overcast skies blanket the region early this morning per
satl imagery as a long fetch of low to mid level moisture continue
to stream northward from the Central Plains into the Northern
Plains. As a result, temperatures have remained relatively steady in
the mid 30s to low 40s. Early morning precip returns off the
regional radar mosaic have dispersed to the north and east across
our forecast area. This has led to a break in the light rain but it
will only be a temporary break as more rain is expected to break out
today and tonight.

The upper flow pattern across the region remains driven by an upper
low across the Central Rockies. This system will deliver the next
bout of moisture into our forecast area today into tonight. Models
remain in fair agreement in tracking the mid/upper low features of
this system into the NE Panhandle during the day and into central SD
this evening into the overnight. Diffluent flow aloft and mid level
forcing will spread precip northward becoming more widespread across
central and eastern SD as the day turn into night. The steady rains
and low clouds will bring local visibilities down to around 2 miles
or less this afternoon into this evening.

Temps at the sfc and aloft remain a critical factor in determining
the p-type our forecast area sees. BUFKIT soundings across portions
of central and northeast SD and west central MN maintain rain for
most of this storm system. However, north central SD will see a bit
more dynamic cooling that should be enough to lead to frozen precip
or snowfall mixing in with the rain at some point this afternoon
into this evening. The late day hours into tonight will be a more
favorable period for that mix to turn to all snow. EC ENS p-type
meteograms at various locations across our CWA agree with this
scenario. The majority of ensemble members are more confident in
snowfall basically north and west of a Pierre to Aberdeen line this
afternoon into tonight versus anywhere east and south of that line.
As far as accumulation potential, confidence remains low. The 25th
to 75th percentiles continue to show nothing up to 2 inches. The
90th percentile amounts are as high as 3 to 5 inches. Given the time
of year, a recent stretch above normal temperatures and near sfc
soil temps in the 40s, any noteworthy accumulations may be hard to
come by. Still, can`t rule out some light or minor accumulations on
grassy areas especially once we get to the end of the day into this
evening after sunset.

This system will eventually shift out of our region by early Tuesday
morning with drier conditions returning. However, it will be quickly
followed up by another upper low tracking northeast out of the
Northern High Plains into parts of ND and southern Canada on
Wednesday. The sfc low and associated fronts tracking east across
the region could touch off a few showers in eastern SD and western
MN as the cold front passes through on Wednesday, but most of the
moisture associated with this system should remain to our north and
east. Temperatures will start to modify midweek as quasi-zonal upper
flow sets up. Upper ridging building into the Northern Plains toward
the end of the week will lead to a return of above normal temps.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR cigs continue, with the exception of KPIR which is at MVFR
per lower clouds/fog. Rain continues to track northeast with a
break over south central SD. This rain will move out over the
next few hours with more rain expected to move in from the south
through the day and continuing through Tuesday morning. Light
snow or rain/snow mix is possible at KABR and KMBG this
afternoon into tonight with lower confidence of this occurring
at KPIR. Otherwise, VFR/MVFR cigs are forecast through the
midday with MVFR/IFR cigs at KPIR. Cigs will continue to drop
to IFR/LIFR starting late this afternoon and continuing through
(and beyond) the TAF period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Vipond
AVIATION...MMM