063
FXUS63 KABR 272339 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
639 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy to areas of fog expected late tonight through early
  Wednesday morning. It could be dense at times, especially
  between the Missouri and James River with a probability of
  visibility of a quarter mile or less at 50 to 80%.

- Rain chances return to the region Wednesday, with the highest
  chances of 60-85% James Valley and eastward by afternoon. Weak
  thunderstorms are possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1039 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

The region remains socked in with low stratus this morning. Adjusted
temperatures accordingly through tonight with stratus, drizzle, and
fog in mind. Wednesday is a bit trickier, with some clearing ahead
of the next low expected. However, morning fog and persistent, if
higher, cloud cover in the east prompted a lean toward
ConsShort/HRRR/ConsAll over NBM. Some of the fog may be dense on the
edges of the stratus in central SD, but pinpointing exact extent of
the lowest visibilities is too low confidence right now for any
thought of a headline. Generally, though, vsby down to 1/2 to 2
miles will be widespread.

A weak low stretches northeast to southwest near the Coteau by
Wednesday afternoon with some shortwave energy trailing over central
SD. Both of these features will produce some rain showers. Can`t
rule out a rumble of thunder across the east along the front,
either. Drier mid levels do move in behind this front, but high
pressure at the sfc and the latent moisture from recent rain will
likely lead to additional fog Wednesday night into Thursday morning
before clearing.

Friday night into Saturday, a Plains low pushes some additional
precipitation into the region. Another break is expected on Sunday
before yet another low pressure system potentially affects the
region Monday into Tuesday. Forecast temperatures are warm enough to
support all rain over the next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Stratus has improved to MVFR levels at KMBG, KABR and KATY. KPIR
has been VFR clear for several hours now. If the clearing trend
continues this evening, KMBG could be VFR clear like KPIR by
03Z. KABR and KATY may end up remaining stuck under stratus this
evening. With winds going light/variable and plenty of low
level/surface moisture (dewpoints in the low 40s right now),
expecting fog to take center stage; at KPIR/KMBG from
radiational cooling and at KABR/KATY from cigs dropping to the
deck. Guidance continues to generate 0.50-5.00mi visibilities
in fog (and ceilings) down into the IFR/LIFR range. If fog
formation is efficient, visbies and cigs could drop to VLIFR.
Eventually, sunshine on Wednesday, along with some modest
probabilities for light rain/rain showers should cause fog/cigs
to lift, with VFR conditions forecast at all four terminals by
Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...10