975
FXUS63 KABR 301933
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
233 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered rain showers move over the area this evening into
Saturday. Rain rates are generally expected to be light, but the
strongest showers may put out around a tenth of an inch of rain,
particularly over northeastern South Dakota.

- More widespread, heavier rainfall is expected Monday through
Tuesday as a low pressure center moves into the Pains. While there
is low confidence in amounts at this time, the chance to see an inch
of rain ranges from 50 to 80 percent, increasing from west to east
across the forecast area.

- Winds turn northwesterly and increase on the back side of the low
pressure center Monday afternoon. Wind gusts upwards of 45 miles per
hour will be possible along and west of the Missouri River.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Scattered rain showers move into the area later this evening and
into tonight. Coverage begins over central South Dakota before
expanding to the rest of the forecast area during the overnight
period. Generally expecting rain rates to remain fairly light
overall, but under the strongest showers, around a tenth of an inch
may fall in total (roughly a 25-45% chance over parts of
northeastern South Dakota).

With an upper-level ridge overhead, above normal temperatures can be
expected for the next couple of days. Highs in the 50s to low 60s
are about 5-10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Low
temperatures are also expected to stay well above freezing through
the weekend. The upper-level pattern will shift at the start of next
week, and an upper-level trough will move overhead. This will push
temperatures back down closer to normal (highs in the low 50s to
upper 40s) for mid to late next week, as well as bring back chances
for freezing temperatures during the overnights.

With the coming pattern change, a Colorado Low is set to move into
the region early next week, bringing another round of rainfall to
the region. Rainfall totals over the last 24 hours of model runs
have continued to trend upwards. The footprint of the area of
heaviest rainfall has also shifted, now located firmly over
northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota. In that area,
ensemble median rainfall totals through Wednesday morning are up to
2". While the GEFS and NBM have their highest rainfall totals over
parts of the Aberdeen forecast area, the Euro ensemble favors a more
easterly track of the low, which would lead to a slight decrease in
the precipitation potential should that scenario pan out (medians
around 1.5"). In either scenario, rainfall totals decrease moving to
the west. As the low pressure center moves in and tracks north,
winds will turn northwesterly and increase thanks to the tightening
pressure gradient. The strongest gusts are expected along and west
of the Missouri River Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning,
where gusts have a 30-60% chance to hit Wind Advisory criteria of 45
miles per hour or higher.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Main aviation concern for this forecast will be rain showers moving
into the area this evening into tonight. Coverage of these showers
will begin over central South Dakota this evening, before spreading
to the rest of the forecast area overnight tonight. With this
showers will come a MVFR to IFR cloud deck, and areas under the
heaviest showers may even see LIFR ceilings. Given that coverage of
these showers is expected to be scattered at best, confidence
remains somewhat low on the rain potential directly at the TAF
sites. Therefore have kept the showers in PROB30 groupings for the
time being. Showers will move out of the forecast area Saturday
morning, but flight category reductions from the low cloud deck will
continue through the duration of the TAF period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...BC