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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD
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607 FXUS63 KABR 100814 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 214 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty downsloping winds along the eastern slopes of the Coteau possible tonight into the overnight, with gusts of 35 to potentially 45 mph. - Above normal temperatures return for the Tuesday - Friday timeframe. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/... Issued at 214 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 Satellite indicates low stratus continuing to stream down from Canada and over locations mainly along and east of the James River into west central MN. Current temps as of 2am are quite chilly ranging from 9 degrees at KABR to the mid 20s at Sisseton, who is under the thicker stratus deck. Both HREF/NBM do have this low stratus continuing through the morning with additional mid to high clouds passing west to east across the CWA into the afternoon. Surface high pressure will continue to exit the region to the south as this shortwave (and its surface low) will track across Canada today through Tuesday. Its warm front will track eastward across the CWA this evening into Tuesday morning and its cold front tracking northwest to southeast over the CWA quickly behind, with winds turning northwest behind it, with the eastern CWA behind the cold front/surface trough by Tuesday midday. Other than increasing clouds this evening with the system, no precip is expected per HREF members/NBM. Clouds will be on the decrease on the backside of the system through the day Tuesday and northwest flow aloft within a +PNA pattern. With the exiting high and surface low to our northwest, the pressure gradient will increase with a difference of ~10mb across the CWA this afternoon. Winds will turn southerly with the incoming surface trough, with sustained winds between 10-20kts and gusts of 20-30kts, highest over north central SD and portions of Lyman County. With more of a southwest component James River and eastward, gusty downsloping winds look possible along the eastern slopes of the Coteau between ~01-09Z. This looks to be more of a marginal event, so did blend in higher guidance to show for this, with gusts up to 45 mph possible, then diminishing as winds turn more westerly. It was interesting to note that mean gusts per HREF ranges from 40 to isolated areas of 50mph. This seemed to be quite high with contaminated data. Comparing max 24hr gusts between NBM4.3 and 5.0 both showed gusts of 40kts. Behind the cold front, per slight CAA/dry air and pressure rises, winds look to increase again out of the northwest with gusts of 20-30kts, highest over central SD Tuesday afternoon. With marginal gusty winds today and Tuesday and drier fuels, the Grassland Fire Danger Index is high over portions of central SD. With the incoming warmer air mass we will see a bit of this warmup, mainly west of the Mo River, with highs in the upper 40s to the low 50s. Highs east of the MO will still be chilly (but warmer) in the mid to upper 30s to lower 40s. The only thing that could hinder these highs is this streamer of stratus. If it lingers longer than guidance, this would decrease highs James River and eastward. As this WAA filters eastward tonight with the warm front, we will have a non diurnal temp temp trend as temps will start out cooler (upper 20s to the upper 30s/40) around 00-01Z then gradually warm through the night with temps by 12Z mainly in the 30s to mid 40s. With the further eastward track of this warmer air on the downstream side of the ridge, highs for Tuesday will range in the 50s to possibly 60, warmest over south central SD. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 214 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 Clipper system that brought warmer temperatures back into the region Tuesday is gone, with cooler but still above average 850mb temperatures, with a northeast to southwest gradient. 1/2km winds top out around 35kts across the northeast through the morning Wednesday, but under neutral advection limiting mixing and intensity. This gradient remains stationary Tuesday night through Wednesday night with a high pressure ridge overhead. That shifts east Thursday morning but southeasterly surface flow will also limit mixing/warming to some extent. The core of the warm air moves overhead Friday/Friday night with 850mb temperatures just a scooch below 2 standard deviations. NBM highs currently reside about 10F below daily records. We do have some record warm low temperatures in the NBM Friday night, but with cooler air that follows for Saturday evening its probably not obtainable. So in regards to the cold air that follows for Saturday/Saturday night, deterministic guidance is pretty inconclusive, owing to a "not that great a consensus" in each models handling of the upper pattern. From the 00Z suite, its looking better however, with a split flow or cut-off 4-Corners system and a Northern Plains trough. POPs have increased in the NBM but remain low and overly broad, mainly because as mentioned above there is only recently better consensus and thats not a pattern where 1) we typically get much overall moisture and 2) model confidence on timing varies running up to these low QPF events. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1130 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG An MVFR stratus deck extends south from eastern North Dakota down through northeast south Dakota and a majority of western Minnesota. There is high uncertainty of the persistence of this stratus since models are by and far too optimistic. However, it appears that KATY will be most affected with an MVFR, to perhaps IFR, ceiling expected through at least 10-12Z. KABR is on the edge of the cloud deck. At this point left a CIG out of the KABR forecast. However, will monitor and amend as necessary. Otherwise, surface high pressure settles in. Northwest winds become light tonight and return out of the south on Monday. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MMM LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...Serr |
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