022
FXUS63 KABR 221739
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1239 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fast moving system overnight tonight into the morning hours of
Tuesday comes with a 50/50 chance for about 1/4" of moisture. Weak
thunderstorms are unlikely to produce severe weather during the
overnight hours.

- Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for isolated severe storms Tuesday
afternoon/early evening along and east of the James valley into
western Minnesota. Main threat is quarter sized hail, but there
could be isolated gusts of 60 mph as well.

- Temperatures remain near to slightly below normal through the work
week. More seasonal temperatures and humidity return late week into
next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

As of a 12:30 PM CDT, temperatures in the region are in the low
70s with generally light winds out of the southeast. Some
storms will move into central and south central SD after
midnight tonight. This will provide more moisture to areas that
got rain this past weekend. Accumulations of less than a quarter
of an inch are expected.

The main story of the 7 day will be storm chances. Showers and
potentially some weak thunderstorms move across central and
northeast SD during the mid to late morning hours Tuesday along a
warm front. There is a good amount of shear at this time over
eastern SD but there is limited instability. For the afternoon,
behind the warm front, there is a good amount of instability but
limited forcing with the current timing on the cold front moving in
from ND. If the cold front moves in faster or the storms with the
warm front linger longer, we could see some stronger storms,
otherwise, the severe threat looks pretty isolated. There is a
marginal (level 1 out of 5) risk for severe storms over eastern SD
Tuesday. The main threat looks to be hail of 1 inch in diameter, but
confidence is low on hail actually growing that big. Current lapse
rate forecasts aren`t super favorable for 1 inch hail at generally
less than 7 C/km but model hodographs are fairly straight. A
shortwave moves across the area Friday bringing a chance for some
widespread rain and potentially thunderstorms. Saturday, the warm
front from an incoming strong low pressure will move across the
forecast area and start several days of thunderstorm chances. The
low is currently forecast to move across SD Sunday and the cold
front looks to be most of the way across eastern SD by Monday
morning. This is still several days out but there is a good chance a
severe outlook will be issued in the next couple days.

Temperatures through the period look to stay right around normal
with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Winds will be strongest
Saturday ahead of the incoming low pressure. Gusts look to be in the
30-40 mph range west of the Sisseton Hills/Prairie Coteau area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions continue this afternoon over all TAF sites. Light
showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible overnight into
Tuesday morning. Chances are below 30% before 06Z and increase
to 30-50% before 12Z for KMBG and KABR, 60-80% for KPIR. Chances
increase after 12Z for KATY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...13