993
FXUS63 KABR 220658
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
158 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Southerly winds gusting up to 35 to 45 mph today and relative
humidity values below 20 to 25 percent will combine to create Red
Flag conditions across central and northeastern SD and west central
MN. If a fire were to ignite, it could become difficult to control
or suppress.

- There is a 50-70 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms
tonight into Thursday morning mainly throughout central South
Dakota. There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms
with the potential for wind gusts over 60 mph.

- Record or near record warm temperatures in the upper 80s to mid
90s are expected today.

- Strong sustained west winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up around 45
mph are expected Thursday mainly over central SD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

A low level jet has been pushing warm, dry air into central and
northeastern SD as well as west central MN through the night and
will continue into the day today. This warm, dry air will cause
temperatures today to warm 25-30 degrees warmer than normal, into
the upper 80s to low 90s, which will be near to record breaking for
many areas. The dry airmass will also cause relative humidities to
be dropping below 20% over areas west of the James River and below
25% over northeastern SD and west central MN today. At the same
time, a surface low pressure is developing and deepening over MT
through the day, which will cause stronger winds aloft and at the
surface. These winds will be gusting 35 to 45 mph over central and
northeastern SD. These winds, in combination with the low relative
humidities, will cause critical fire weather conditions. As such, a
Red Flag Warning has been issued for central and northeastern SD and
west central MN. With the high fire weather concerns, make sure to
keep an eye on any recent burns to ensure they are fully
extinguished. Additionally, be cautious of anything that could
create a spark or fire, such as farm equipment, chains on vehicles
and trailers, and avoid improper disposal of cigarettes. If a fire
were to ignite, it could become difficult to control or suppress.

The surface low over MT will start to move east towards ND Wednesday
evening and overnight. A cold front connected to this low will be
moving into SD tonight. Models show a bit of moisture from the south
moving up into SD, which will help with the development of rain and
some thunderstorms over central SD as the front moves through. One
thing that could hinder the development of storms and rain is where
the bit of moisture moves into. Some models have the moisture moving
into northeastern SD, which decreases storm development over central
SD overnight. Other models and the CAMs have that moisture moving
into central SD, which allows for storm development, though some
models don`t have as much moisture so rain and storm chances are not
as widespread. There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for the
storms to become severe over central SD Wednesday evening and
overnight. With the dry nature of the atmosphere, model soundings
are showing inverted Vs over south central SD as well as steep lapse
rates. Because of this, the primary threat in these storms are
severe wind gusts and the potential for some microbursts to occur.
Some models are showing a secondary threat of hail over south
central SD due to the steep lapse rates. However, with the warm
temperatures, it would take a lot to get hail to the surface without
it all melting away. Some smaller hail might be able to reach the
surface though.

The rain and storm potential will continue to move east through the
night into Thursday morning as the front pushes through central and
northeastern SD. The models are showing the front stalling a little
bit over eastern SD and western MN, which keeps precipitation
chances over northeastern SD and west central MN through the day
Thursday. There is a bit of potential for storm development through
the day Thursday over this area, however it is forecast to ramp up
during the afternoon, mostly to the east in western MN. There is
currently a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storm for
Thursday over far eastern SD and west central MN, with the main
threat being hail.

The surface low looks to sit over ND Thursday, which helps to keep a
tight pressure gradient over central and northeastern SD. With
strong CAA moving in behind the front, strong winds will be pushed
down into central SD. Ensembles have a 30-60% chance for the winds
to gust up to and slightly above 45 mph Thursday over areas west of
the Missouri River and the Leola Hills. Some models are moving the
surface low to the north faster than others, which causes the
stronger winds to be weaker or die back quicker than other models.
Because of this, the strong winds could decrease quicker than
forecast Thursday evening and will not stick around into Friday.
Minimum RH values Thursday are forecast to drop to above 25 to 30%
over central and northeastern SD, which will help to decrease fire
weather conditions. The cold air moving in will also help to cool
the temperatures to be around normal to just slightly below normal
for this time of the year into the weekend, in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Low-level
wind shear (LLWS) will be a concern and have mentioned this for
all TAF sites. -SHRA/-TSRA will be possible across central SD
towards the end of the TAF period, mainly near KPIR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     SDZ007-008-011-019>023.
     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning to 8
    PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for SDZ003>006-009-010-
     015>018-033>037-045-048-051.
MN...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...TMT