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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD
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000 FXUS63 KABR 291127 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 627 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023 .UPDATE... Issued at 624 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023 See updated aviation discussion below. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Afternoon) Issued at 312 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023 The main forecast challenge in the near term revolves around precipitation chances on Thursday ahead of an approaching storm system. An upper level shortwave currently over the region will exit to the east this morning, leaving northwest flow in its wake this afternoon into this evening. Ridging builds over the region overnight and Thursday morning before southwest flow ahead of a western United States trough develops in the afternoon. At the surface, high pressure will be the dominant feature over the Northern Plains today, then it tracks to the east tonight, with the region becoming situated between it and low pressure approaching from the west. After cooler temperatures today and tonight, the warmer flow should result in warmer temperatures on Thursday. The low to the west will reach the western High Plains by late Thursday afternoon, and the question then becomes whether or not precipitation associated with its associated warm front extending from the low to over Iowa will make it to the northeastern CWA Thursday afternoon. For now, will keep just some small POPs across that area. Model soundings do indicate a brief window where there may be some freezing precipitation during the late Thursday afternoon hours. High temperatures today will range from the upper teens across west central Minnesota and northeastern South Dakota, to the mid 30s across south central South Dakota. Low temperatures tonight will range from the single digits across west central Minnesota and northeastern South Dakota, to the mid 20s across south central South Dakota. Highs on Thursday will range from the lower 30s along the North Dakota/South Dakota border, to the mid 50s across south central South Dakota. .LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Tuesday) Issued at 312 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023 Friday looks to be a mess. Initially we have NAM/GFS BUFKIT profiles indicative of freezing drizzle, with about 4-5kft thick stratus just a few degrees above freezing at the top and below freezing for the lowest 1-2kft mainly along and east of the James (shallower or non- existent west of the James). The warm layer rapidly cools as profiles saturate so a brief period of actual freezing rain before the p-type shifts to snow. We continue to see better and better alignment between deterministic members on the track and timing, and precipitation bullseyes that form during the day Friday, though there is still a bit of confidence issues generated by GEFS plumes (an inch QPF difference in highest and lowest members with a good spread in between) while a good number of EC ensemble postage stamps QPF bullseyes missing or much less intense compared to deterministic guidance. Seeing better confidence in winds as well with BUFKIT mixed winds in the NAM into the low 40s (kts) while the GFS is still a bit excessive in the 50s (kts). Its hard to judge how efficiently we will mix with a 12-15mb 6 hour pressure rise on the backside of a low that drops 18mb/24 hours along with a 20 to 25mb gradient across the state...on top of cold advection. Blowing snow model suggests impacts will be very temperature/wind and snowfall rate dependent initially during the day Friday (not to mention the non-diurnal temperature profile likely, and a potential coating of drizzle) with a trend for wetter snow...but as we cool and winds increase, impacts are more probable even if snowfall rates come down. We get some milder air Sunday and then a weak cold frontal passage Monday... so mixing opportunity with milder air means some of us will finally get to see 40 degrees again. At the tail end of the forecast we will have yet another Colorado low system to deal with, similar to the Friday storm system. At this point not much to tell other than another potentially impactful system is headed our way...and right now there is some decent continuity with this one for these timescales. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning) Issued at 624 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions will prevail across the area today and tonight. Look for southeasterly winds to increase into the 15 to 25 knot range late tonight across central South Dakota. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Parkin LONG TERM...Connelly AVIATION...Parkin |
Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Aberdeen, SD (ABR) Office Forecast Discussions.
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