823
FXUS63 KABR 071442 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
842 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild air returns this weekend with above normal temperatures in
  the 30s and 40s east to the 50s to low 60s west.

- Next chances for measurable precipitation (20-30%) will be late
  Monday into Tuesday, but confidence in model guidance remains
  low. Current trends indicate that a weak system or two will move
  through the area during the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 839 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

The forecast remains on track this morning, no major changes are
planned.

UPDATE Issued at 532 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 343 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Still dealing with a band of stratus across the eastern Dakotas,
affecting the northern James River valley through KATY within our
CWA. Out west, also seeing scattered patches of stratus/fog and had
earlier inserted mention of patchy fog across north central SD
through the early morning hours. There is pretty good movement in
the stratus off to the northeast, which follows trends shown by the
HRRR/HREF low-level cloud products in taking the stratus out of here
through the morning hours as southerly winds begin to increase. Will
try to follow satellite trends in sky grids to better reflect the
changing conditions. Mid/high level clouds also look to increase
across the region today as well.

Warm air advection will overspread the region today with the
increasing southerly winds. 925mb temps by this afternoon range from
around 0C across the eastern CWA to as warm as +10C to +13C over
portions of central SD. Looking at high temperatures ranging from
the 30s east, to the 50s over central SD.

There are indications from the HREF members that stratus returns
tonight across the eastern CWA and could remain in place into a good
chunk of the day Sunday. This of course, could have an effect on
high temperatures Sunday, so a trend worth monitoring. Current sky
cover grids may not be capturing potential cloudiness enough if
these clouds manage to materialize.

Otherwise, main highlight in the short term period is the very mild
temperatures moving in on Sunday as 925mb temps rise to as high as
+15C across central SD. Cooler across the east but still around +5C
at 925mb. Favorable west-southwest mixing breezes as well. Stage is
set for well above normal temperatures with widespread 50s and 60s
expected along and west of the James River. Warmest readings
expected west of the Missouri River though, as temps rise into the
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 343 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Warm air will continue to stay over SD Monday and help to keep
temperatures 15-25 degrees warmer than normal. This won`t last too
long as Monday afternoon/evening a cold front attached to a surface
low pressure north of MN will sweep through central and northeastern
SD. Some models have precipitation developing behind the frontal
passage while others don`t, and some of the models that do show
precipitation keep it north of central and northeastern SD. This
lowers the confidence in precipitation chances over central and
northeastern SD late Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning.
Cooling temperatures also adds to lower confidence when it comes to
forecasting the type of precipitation that falls, as there will be
the chance for rain, rain/snow mix, and snow. The ECMWF p-type
meteograms also have a few members that show freezing rain/drizzle
and sleet occurring as well.

Tuesday into early Wednesday morning, some high pressure moves in
over SD and helps to keep precipitation out of the area during that
time. A shortwave/weak surface low pressure (depending on the model)
is then forecast to move into southwestern SD Wednesday as an upper-
level trough starts to move towards the state. This brings chances
for more precipitation to central and northeastern SD through
Thursday morning. Models vary location, how widespread, and the
timing of the precipitation, which causes lower confidence in
forecasting this precipitation. Additionally, temperatures will be
10-15 degrees warmer than normal through the week. This will lead to
highs in the 40s and the chance for multiple precipitation types to
occur again Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 532 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

MVFR CIGs are hanging on this morning in KATY, but trends are for
CIGs to improve to VFR later this morning. Otherwise, mostly VFR
conditions are forecast to prevail at all TAF sites through the
day. There are some indications of MVFR/IFR CIGs returning
overnight across portions of northeast SD, including KATY and
perhaps KABR. Confidence is somewhat low in areal coverage, so
will continue to monitor for future TAF issuances.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...13
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...TMT