607
FXUS63 KABR 080037 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
737 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms (level 2 out of 5) is
  in place today. All severe threats, including wind of 60 to
  75 miles per hour, hail of 1 to 1.5 inches in diameter, and
  tornadoes will be possible.

- There is also a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall leading to
  flash flooding (a level 2 of 4 threat) in place over much of
  the area today. The greatest chances for excessive rainfall
  will be over north central and northeast SD as well as western
  MN. These areas have already received 1-3 inches of rain from
  this morning`s storms. These areas are expected to see an
  additional 1-2" of rain at least, with the heaviest rain
  expected in the evening. Areas that see multiple round of
  storms may see as much as 2-4" of rain in total.

- A slight cooldown is expected Wednesday through at least
  Thursday, with widespread near-normal to just below normal
  high temperatures (low to mid 80s). Signs point to a warming
  trend beginning by the end of the week, and highs may
  potentially hit triple digits over the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 731 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 469 was expanded across north central
SD eastward into the James River valley to account for elevated
convection across northern SD capable of producing hail. Best
instability remains further south over the CWA and have seen
convection trying to form west of Pierre. Have been adjusting
PoPs this evening to account for radar trends. Will be watching
the northern CWA for flooding potential as well, especially for
those areas just north of Hwy 12 who received heavy rainfall
earlier this morning. Aviation discussion has also been update
below for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

As of about 12:30 PM CDT, temperatures around the area are in the
low 80s with winds out of the north behind the front and out of the
southeast ahead of the front. This front will once again be the
focus for storm development late this afternoon into the evening
hours. The storms from this morning have moved out of the forecast
area, leaving behind some rainfall totals between 1.5 and 2 inches,
localized up to 3 inches. This will play a role in flooding
potential later this afternoon and evening.

A low pressure system starts to move into southwest SD today with a
nose moving into south central SD. Storms will start to form in this
area of low pressure and along the front in central SD around 5 to 7
PM. The environment lacks low level shear but surface to 1 km SRH
from the RAP is pretty good along the front. This will be supportive
of tornadoes. Lapse rates are around 7-7.5 C/km and there is plenty
of CAPE to support supercells with large hail 1 to 1.5 inches in
diameter and wind gusts of 60-75 mph. SPC has highlighted the
forecast area in slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe weather
with a 2% tornado risk along and around the front. The HREF shows
storm motion in generally a southwesterly direction at 5 to 10 kts,
so very slow. This, combined with PWAT values of 1.5 to 2 inches
will increase chances of flooding, especially in east/northeast SD.
There is potential for storms to become more linear and transition
into a MCS with an increased chance for damaging winds. Storms are
expected to last into the morning hours of Wednesday.

The next big story of the forecast is a ridge that moves into our
area from the west this weekend into next week. This will result in
several days of hot weather. Highs Sunday through Tuesday are
expected to be 10-20 degrees above average for this time of year
with heat index values near or exceeding 100 degrees. This will put
HeatRisk into the moderate to major categories, with portions of
central and northeast SD reaching the extreme category both Monday
and Tuesday. This will affect anyone. Make sure to keep a look out
for signs of heat related illnesses, especially with outdoor events.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 731 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Areas of TSRA/+TSRA across central SD this evening will be
affecting KPIR/KMBG. MVFR/IFR VSBY possible in heavier
downpours, and cannot rule out GR (hail) as well. MVFR or even
areas of IFR CIGs are forecast to increase across the region
later tonight into Wednesday morning. These lower CIGs are also
possible this evening across KMBG in TSRA/+TSRA.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...TMT