272
FXUS63 KABR 081900
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
200 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 35 to 60 percent chance of light rain and snow
  Thursday, with less than 0.10in of water equivalent
  precipitation and less than 0.5in of snow accumulation
  expected.

- High temperatures recover to near normal on Friday before
  warming to above normal Saturday through Monday. Temperatures
  over much of the area are expected to be 10 to 20 degrees
  above normal, warmest Sunday.

- Fire weather concerns look to relax a bit Friday and Saturday.
  But afternoon relative humidity values on Sunday may get
  close to 20 percent over portions of central and south central
  South Dakota.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

At 1 PM CDT, skies were a mix of sun and clouds. One cold front
has moved through the CWA. A second cold front is making its
way, southward, into the CWA early this afternoon. Any hints of
early precipitation chances have all but dried up this
afternoon. Temperatures are running in the 30s and 40s.
Northwest winds 25 to 40 mph with gusts 45 to 60 mph are
sweeping southeastward into the forecast area. The strong winds
are expected to extend over into west central Minnesota by late
this afternoon, persisting into the middle of the evening before
subsiding. The Wind Advisory has been extended in time and space
as such.

Surface high pressure will set up over the region tonight into
Thursday. Aloft, a rex block pattern is just off the west coast,
with the upper ridge`s influencing continuing to spell a period of
northwest flow over this region. Models support a shortwave sliding
southeastward across the region on Thursday, bringing the potential
for some light snow or a rain/snow mix. Beyond that, precipitation
chances will have to wait until Saturday/Saturday night, at the
earliest, as the low pressure energy in the bottom of the west coast
rex block is progged to start working itself back into the mean
flow, heading toward the central plains over the weekend. Upper
level steering winds are expected to become southwesterly aloft by
the end of the day Saturday in response, and this should open the
door for a handful of precipitation chances between Saturday
afternoon/night and Tuesday of next week. Currently, models depict a
break in the precipitation chances around the middle of next week,
as shortwave ridging aloft and surface high pressure work over the
Dakotas. As far as any potential precipitation amounts go, the
probability of 0.10in or more of water equiv (rain) in any given 24
hour period containing PoPs in the 7-day forecast is less than 35
percent (in most cases it`s less than 25 percent).

As for temperatures, there is an ensemble-supported warm-up in store
for Friday through Monday, including a 55 to 90 percent chance the
high temperature on Sunday will warm to 80 degrees or warmer. There
are even a few pockets of 30 to 40 percent probability of
temperatures reaching 90 degrees on Sunday.

As for fire weather concerns, after this afternoon`s marginal
relative humidity considerations (~20-30 percent), the only other
day in the 7-day of concern right now shows up on Sunday, when
Stanley/Jones/Lyman counties will be, once again, running afternoon
humidities between 20 to 30 percent.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Generally VFR conditions are forecast during the next 24 hours.
Mixing layer/instability showers are developing and heading
toward KMBG. Not sure if they will make it to KABR. For now,
have them included in the KMBG TAF. Strong northwest winds
should diminish this evening, becoming light and variable by
Thursday morning. Light snow or a rain/snow mix is possible on
Thursday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for SDZ006>008-011-
     018>021.
     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for
     SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017.
MN...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...10