310
FXUS63 KABR 152041
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
241 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather conditions improve this evening across
  central and south central South Dakotas as temps cool and winds
  diminish.

- Temperatures will remain well above normal Monday into Tuesday
  with some locales having the potential to set new record warm
  lows on Tuesday.

- Precipitation chances (50-70%) return Tuesday. Rain is expected
  initially, transitioning to snow Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Early afternoon temperatures have warmed into the 50s and 60s across
the forecast area. Southwest winds have become gusty around 25-30
mph across south-central and central SD. Relative humidity values in
those areas are falling to between 15-20 percent in some areas, so
the current Red Flag Warning across south central SD will remain in
place until early this evening. These conditions will improve once
temperatures start to cool and winds diminish early this evening.

The overall upper flow pattern will continue to feature zonal, if
not s/w ridging aloft across the Northern Plains tonight through
early Tuesday. This will continue our streak of days of mild and dry
condition with well above normal temperatures for mid February.
Slightly cooler temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday
compared to the values we`ve seen this weekend. Some locales may be
close to setting new record warm lows overnight Monday night into
Tuesday morning with readings in the low to mid 30s anticipated.
By the start of Tuesday an upper trough is progged to push into the
Great Basin and Intermountain West. This will bring changes to our
weather as this disturbance is forecast to lift northeast into the
Northern Plains and become negatively tilted the latter half of
Tuesday into Wednesday. Model soundings on Tuesday indicate a bout
of light precip in the form of drizzle or light rain showers will be
possible initially before more widespread showers fill in going
through the latter half of the day into Tuesday night. Temperatures
will be warm enough for just rain through this period. That could
even last into the first part of Wednesday, although cooler air will
filter into the system by then that we should see a transition to a
rain/snow mix and perhaps some of our northern/northwestern zones
will see a period of snow showers as colder temps are expected
there. Guidance continues to hold onto the warmer air mass longer
which has curtailed NBM snowfall probabilities a bit to where as now
only our far north/northeast zones only have a 20-30 percent chance
of seeing at least 2 inches of accumulation from late Tue through
late Wed.

After that system departs, a narrow window of dry conditions are
expected by the end of Wednesday into early Thursday. Another upper
wave is progged to push into the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest on
Thursday into Friday. This will provide our area with another chance
for precipitation. By then, temperatures will have continued to
cool, so much so that we`ll see below normal readings. Snow should
be the dominant p-type with this disturbance. Various model
solutions differ on timing, location and strength of this system on
Thursday, so confidence on snowfall potential and the locations of
it remain low. Temperatures for the remainder of the period stay
below normal with highs during the day only in the teens and 20s and
lows at night in the single digits above zero.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1113 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites through this forecast
period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for SDZ045-048-051.

MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Vipond
AVIATION...Vipond