488
FXUS63 KABR 131731 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1231 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler than normal temperatures expected through Wednesday
  (highs in the 60s to low 70s) with the exception of a brief
  warmup on Monday (highs in the mid to upper 70s over much of
  the forecast area). A gradual warming trend will begin mid-
  week and continue through the weekend.

- Confidence is high on widespread rain and perhaps weak
  thunderstorms overnight tonight through Monday afternoon.
  Highest rainfall totals are expected along the US-212
  corridor, where totals may exceed one inch (40-60% chance).

- Strong northwesterly winds take hold behind a cold front
  Monday afternoon into evening. Along and west of the
  Missouri River, wind gusts will reach as high as 35 to 45
  miles per hour.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Updated discussion for the 18Z TAFs below.

UPDATE Issued at 1019 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Current temps range in the upper 50s to the lower 60s and
dewpoints in the 40s. Radar indicates the last of narrow bands
of precip, associated with a shortwave aloft, exiting the far
eastern CWA with satellite indicating ongoing mid to high clouds
over much of the CWA. An upper level ridge will track eastward
and be overhead this afternoon and evening with a surface high
pressure system still dominant over the region keeping
conditions dry. Both the ridge and high will exit to the east
overnight as a low moving in will bring widespread rain late
tonight through Monday afternoon. Forecast to remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 626 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Per shortwave aloft, mid to high clouds continue over portions
of south central and north and northeastern SD. Brief clearing
of skies late this afternoon and evening before overcast lower
clouds move in late tonight and continue through Monday
afternoon associated with a low that will track across the
region bringing widespread rain/weak thunderstorms to all
terminals ahead of a cold front. This sets the stage for some
potential sub-VFR cigs, and perhaps even some pockets of IFR
fog, particularly over the KPIR/KMBG terminals. Precip will end
west to east across the region with the last of the precip
exiting eastern SD by late afternoon/early evening.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Monday for SDZ003-015.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MMM
AVIATION...MMM