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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD
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151 FXUS63 KABR 151527 AAB AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1027 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy/areas of drizzle ending this morning, but expected to redevelop by early this evening. - Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal Thursday afternoon over eastern South Dakota and west central Minnesota. - There is a 50-80% chance of showers tonight through Thursday evening, with highest chances over north central SD. There is a 40-70% chance of more than a quarter inch mainly west of the Missouri River and north of Hwy 14. - Windy conditions (NW gusts 30-45 mph) and elevated fire danger on Saturday, then cold temperatures (near/below freezing) in the low to mid 30s likely Saturday night/Sunday morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1012 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Let the Dense Fog Advisory expire at 10 AM CDT. Still evidence of areas of fog out there, but not seeing much in the way of 1/4mi stuff anymore. Conditions appear to be gradually improving this morning. Also not seeing a "drizzle signal" on radar. Thinking the drizzle potential may be done for now. But, by early this evening, lift within this ongoing stratus layer increases some and the depth of the stratus layer increases some, and the potential kicks in for drizzle to return to the forecast area, especially for areas that don`t see the true rain threat materialize; areas like northeast South Dakota into west central Minnesota. UPDATE Issued at 632 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Aviation discussion updated below for the 12Z TAFs. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/... Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 As of 3 AM CDT, light drizzle continues across the area. Winds are out of the east at 5-10 mph with temperatures in the mid to upper 40s. We also have some visibilities less than a quarter mile around the MO River this morning prompting a dense fog advisory until 10 AM CDT. Areas of drizzle will be possible today (exact timing and coverage is still uncertain) with rain moving in for Thursday as a low pressure system moves into and across the forecast area. It is possible that a few storms could develop with maybe one or two becoming severe over central SD but the chances for severe storms have decreased since the previous model run. Rainfall accumulations have a 40-70% chance of exceeding a quarter in around and west of the Missouri River mainly north of Hwy 14 and a 50-70% chance of exceeding a half inch over far north central SD. Relatively deep moisture remains over the area through the end of the period which will keep a thicker layer of clouds overhead and help keep highs today a bit on the cool side (in the 50s to low 60s) and overnight lows more moderate (in the upper 40s to low 50s). Some WAA ahead of the low will also help with these low temps. The low will move northeast across the forecast area with a cold front trailing behind from west to east. Due to this cold front, high temperatures Thursday are a little uncertain across most of the forecast area, but kept NBM for now. In general, highs are expected to reach into the upper 60s to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Thursday night, the surface low and mid-level shortwave trough will be moving northward into Canada and out of the area. It appears the frontal boundary should be quickly moving eastward into MN Thursday evening, thus taking much of the precip chances with it. Inherited NBM PoPs feature 20-40% chances in the evening, but quickly go mostly dry after 06Z and into Friday morning. Upper pattern then shows shortwave energy moving eastward across the Dakotas on Saturday. Models are trying to generate a bit of precip across the area, but NBM probability of measurable is generally less than 20 percent across the region. Current forecast PoPs show generally slight chances (20%) or dry across the region for Saturday. What is likely the bigger story on Saturday is the potential for 35-45 mph northwest wind gusts as a tight pressure gradient sets up over the region. NBM probability of 24-hr max gusts of 45 mph or greater ending at 06Z Sunday generally ranges from 40- 60% across central SD. Current forecast RH values in the afternoon are ranging from 35 to 45 percent, so elevated fire danger for sure on Saturday. Will then be focusing on low temperatures Saturday night into Sunday morning as a surface ridge axis moves through the region. While it appears from the GEFS/GEPS/ENS pressure pattern Saturday night that we don`t lay right under the high center, the axis looks substantial enough to the north to where winds should go fairly light, especially in valley areas. Current NBM sky grids show clear conditions, so we should be setting up fairly nicely for near or even sub-freezing conditions. Cool air mass in place also with 850mb temps from 0 to +5C. Current forecast is for lows in the low to mid 30s. NBM probability of min temps less than 32 degrees Sunday morning is around 40-60% in the James River valley into portions of north central SD. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 632 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Areas of FG/BR across the region during the TAF period will bring periods of MVFR/IFR VSBY with -DZ possible as well. Low clouds will stick around through the TAF period, with IFR/LIFR CIGs quite common, although periods of improvements to MVFR are possible. Low-level wind shear (LLWS) will also be a concern overnight and have inserted mention of this into the TAFs. Late tonight, -SHRA/SHRA will be moving northeast into the region with MVFR VSBY possible. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...10 SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM...TMT AVIATION...TMT |
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