074
FXUS63 KABR 100521 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1221 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Slight (Level 2 of 5) to Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for
  severe thunderstorms to develop this afternoon through
  evening for central South Dakota. Hail of 1 to 2 inches in
  diameter and wind gusts of 60 to 70 miles per hour will be the
  main threats.

- A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms to
  develop Friday afternoon into evening over far eastern SD and
  west central MN. Hail of 1 inch in diameter will be the main
  threat.

- A warming trend begins by the end of the week, and highs may
  potentially hit triple digits Sunday through Tuesday. This
  level of heat may cause widespread heat related impacts
  particularly for those without adequate cooling and those
  sensitive to heat.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Updated discussion for the 06Z TAFs below.

UPDATE Issued at 904 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

CWA is void of any precipitation at this time. Earlier this
evening there was some widely scattered shower/storm activity
across north central SD, but that has since dissipated. Will
continue to watch a complex moving south across ND that could
impact the eastern CWA later tonight. There are 20/30 PoPs in
the forecast, but these may need to be expanded/increased if
this activity holds together like some CAMs suggest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 131 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

A frontal boundary will be moving over western SD this afternoon and
then pushing east into central SD during the evening and overnight
hours. Instability over central SD will be increasing through the
day, with CAPE values looking to get up onto the 1000-2000 J/kg and
shear values between 30-35kts. This will make for a good environment
for storms to continue to move into and/or develop over central SD
during the later afternoon into the evening hours. There is a slight
(level 2 of 5) to marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for these storms to
become severe. With DCAPE values of 1200-1300 J/kg and lapse rates
of 7.5 C/km, the primary hazards are large hail of 1 to 2 inches in
diameter and wind gusts of 60-70 mph. Into the overnight hours, the
storms will continue to move east into a weaker environment that
will likely cause the storms to dissipate before they reach
northeastern SD.

Friday morning, the frontal boundary will be moving into
northeastern SD. As it moves in during the early morning, some
isolated showers and storms could develop in that area as it will
have a little bit of instability. Though there will not be a lot of
shear for severe storm development. Additionally, weaker lapse rates
will reduce the risk for large hail. There could be some gusty winds
as well as some small hail that could occur in the storms that pop
up. The boundary will not move too much through the day, and with a
fair bit of instability building up over northeastern SD through the
day, storms could develop during the afternoon into the evening over
northeastern SD and west central MN. At the moment, the NAM shows up
to 30 kts of shear and lapse rates around 6-7 C/km, which could help
with hail development. This leads to the primary threat from the
storms to be hail up to 1 inch in diameter, though some stronger
wind gusts cannot be ruled out.

An upper-level ridge will be moving high pressure in over SD this
weekend. This will help to keep precipitation chances from developing
showers and storms over central and northeastern SD Saturday through
Monday. The high pressure will also help move warm temperatures,
about 10-20 degrees warmer than normal, in during the weekend and
into the beginning of next week. Max temperatures and heat index
values will be in the 90s on Saturday and in the mid 90s to triple
digits Sunday and Monday. We are holding off on an extreme heat
watch/warning at the moment because the days with the highest risk
are still a few days out and things could still change a bit.
Central and northeastern SD and west central MN are right on the
edge of extreme heat warning criteria, and might fall more into a
heat advisory. Because of the lower confidence in things at the
moment, a heat headline will likely need to be issued a little
later. The high temperatures and heat index values as well as the
warmer low temperatures at night have caused the NWS Heat Risk to
show high chances of getting into Major category as well as some
lower chances of getting into Extreme category Saturday through
Tuesday. During these times, those sensitive to heat or without
adequate cooling or hydration could see heat related impacts and/or
develop heat illnesses. Make sure to avoid strenuous outdoor work
and exercise during the hottest parts of the day and to stay
hydrated.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Currently, a cluster of thunderstorms are moving out of ND and
into portions of northeastern SD which will be affecting mainly
KABR for the next hour or so with the main threat being wind
gusts of 50kts and small hail. A brief drop in viz below VFR is
possible with these storms. This could hit KATY within the next
few hours, however, the storms will be weakening so low
confidence on this. Otherwise, VFR cigs are forecast through
the end of the TAF period and overall dry. There could be the
potential for isolated showers and thunderstorms for KATY late
this afternoon and evening.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MMM
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...MMM