086
FXUS63 KABR 110642
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1242 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Colder temperatures arriving Thursday through Saturday, with highs
only in the 30s and 40s and lows in the 20s to upper teens. Above
normal temperatures likely returning by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1241 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

A lower stratus cloud deck will be moving in during the early
morning and will stick around through the day. These low clouds will
cause some lower visibilities to develop over portions of north
central and northeastern SD during the morning, which could be less
than 1 mile at time. The clouds will rise during the morning into
the afternoon, so there will not be lower visibilities during the
afternoon into the evening. Higher pressure will be moving in during
the day and stick around through Friday, which will help to keep
precipitation chances out. The upper and mid level flow from the
northwest/north will help to push colder air in. This cold air will
start to cool temperatures today and through the rest of the week.
The coldest temperatures will happen on Thursday, with highs in the
30s to low 40s and lows in the 20s to teens into Friday morning.

A surface low will be developing over the Rockies Thursday into
Friday. With this low to the west and high pressure over
northeastern SD, the pressure gradient over western and central SD
will start to tighten. As the high pressure moves east Saturday into
Sunday, the tight pressure gradient will spread over northeastern SD
as well. This tight pressure gradient will help to strengthen the
wind Friday through Sunday. The strongest wind gusts will be west of
the Missouri River, with a 30-50% chance for gusts up to or greater
than 35 mph on Friday and 50-80% chance on Saturday. An eye might
need to be kept on these winds in the upcoming model runs to see if
they might increase in strength or if humidity decreases and fire
weather concerns increase. The models have been shifting the
timeline of when the warmer air will be pushing back into SD later
in the previous few runs. Currently, the models are forecasting a
weak warm front moving through Sunday that will push the warm air
back in and warm temperatures above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1107 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

IFR/MVFR stratus is expected to expand and move south into KMBG and
KABR Wednesday morning. Differences in the models remain regarding
any improvement in the afternoon before MVFR stratus settles in
during the evening at KMBG/KABR/KATY. Given the position of high
pressure across the east and north to northeast sfc flow, leaned
toward a blend of the RRFS and GLAMP to keep MVFR prevailing most of
the day but can`t rule out a few breaks between 18z and 23z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...20