608
FXUS63 KABR 240158 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
858 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) across central SD
  and a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) along and west of the
  James River this evening. The main concerns will be golf ball
  size hail, wind gusts exceeding 60 mph, lightning, and brief
  heavy rainfall.

- There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe weather
  Monday night. Threat include one golf ball size hail and
  60-75 mph gusts.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 856 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Severe storm activity has been confined to northwest SD this
evening as cells continue to move south-southeast over UNR CWA.
Will maintain small PoPs (20-30%) across the western CWA this
evening, but even this might be a bit overdone.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

A weak upper level trough of low pressure currently over western ND
still may become the focal point for showers and storms impacting
the western CWA later this evening. A few showers and storms are
ongoing, with some model guidance suggesting modest intensity over
the next few hours. However, the best low level moisture and
instability is located mainly west of the CWA, with SBCAPE exceeding
1K J/kg over western SD. Across much of eastern ND, and northeastern
SD, surface dewpoints in the 50s with limited moisture advection at
this time. As of now, the RRFS is the more robust model solution
with convection developing over the western Dakotas. The storms in
western SD move eastward toward the CWA around 23-0Z before
diminishing. It still maintains a convection complex over southwest
ND moving southward into north central SD after 1Z. The lack of a
LLJ may limit the overall severe threat with the RRFS showing the
storms weakening with time. The past few runs of the HRRR keeps most
of the CWA free from severe weather. Overall, the severe threat is
best west of the Missouri River where a few storms may produce golf
ball size hail and 60-75 mph wind gusts. The pcpn should exit the
CWA before 12Z Monday.

A frontal boundary will cross the region Monday through Monday night
may produce an isolated storm during the day period. Models due
indicate convection developing after 0Z Tuesday, with eastern ND
having a good potential for storms. A lee of the Black Hills surface
low may cause additional storms over central and south central SD.
While widespread severe weather is not anticipated, a stronger storm
or two could produce golf ball size hail and wind gusts of 60 to 75
mph.

After dry conditions midweek, chances for precipitation returns to
the forecast area Thursday night through the weekend. Temperatures
remain at or above average for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are generally forecast through the TAF period.
Only exception to this would be any TSRA activity that manages
to moves into north central SD (KMBG region) later this
evening. Have a PROB30 (03Z-07Z) for this potential currently.
Brief MVFR/IFR VSBY is possible in any heavier downpours that
happen to move over the TAF site.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...17
AVIATION...TMT