452
FXUS63 KABR 080114 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
714 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much above normal high temperatures in the 60s to near 70 degrees
  on Sunday, with record highs in jeopardy.

- High to very high grassland fire danger on Sunday across central
  SD.

- Two separate systems will bring precipitation potential Monday
  night through Tuesday night. Probability for receiving an inch
  or greater snowfall for both systems combined is 30-40 percent
  across northern SD.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 706 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Got a mid-level wave sliding southeast through the region
(primarily north and east of this CWA), generating some sct/bkn
mid and upper level clouds and virga (or perhaps a few
sprinkles?) over far northeast South Dakota/southeast North Dakota
heading for western Minnesota. There are some small PoPs in the
forecast across northeast South Dakota/west central Minnesota for
this feature, but the atmosphere is just so very dry below 500hpa
(00Z KABR RAOB) that isolated sprinkles may be being too generous.
No changes planned to the forecast at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 510 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Snow cover across central SD has pretty much vanished thanks to the
warmer air mass moving in, mixing winds, and the intensifying early
March sun angle. Rather impressive warm air advection kicking in
this afternoon and persists overnight and through the day Sunday. By
Sunday afternoon, 925mb temps should be around +15C to +20C across
the CWA. Westerly mixing winds stay in place overnight, generally in
the 10 to 20 mph range, but likely a tad weaker in valley areas and
strongest on higher elevations in the CWA. The mixing overnight
should keep temps in the 30s for many areas, but any remaining snow
cover areas in the east, as well as valley areas could sneak into
the upper 20s. On Sunday, with the mixing winds and warm air aloft,
look for highs in the 60s to near 70 degrees for most areas. These
readings will put record highs in jeopardy for Sunday.

Fire danger will become an issue on Sunday with westerly winds
gusting from 30 to 40 mph. Min RH values are forecast to be between
25 and 30 percent for much of central SD. These factors will bring
the grassland fire danger into the VERY HIGH category. Speaking of
winds, we do flirt with advisory levels across northern SD. Current
forecast values are somewhat marginal, so will punt to the next
shift to take a closer look. Could see a scenario where the Leola
Hills region westward to Corson county gets into some low-end
criteria (sustained 30mph/gusts 45mph), but will again wait another
forecast cycle to get a better idea of potential.

Cold front drops south through the area Sunday night, bringing
cooler temperatures in the 40s and 50s for Monday. Will also be
watching a system sliding eastward across the region Monday night
into Tuesday, then another system on its heels for Tuesday into
Tuesday night. Right now, the NBM probability for receiving greater
than an inch (both systems combined) is around 30-40 percent across
northern SD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 510 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Low-level wind
shear (LLWS) will be an issue tonight and inserted mention of this.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...10