256
FXUS63 KABR 021848
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1248 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breaks in the rain will continue this afternoon and through
  late this evening for some locations across central and
  northeastern SD. Rain will fill back in overnight/early
  Tuesday morning and continue through Wednesday. A few rumbles
  of thunder are possible along and east of the Sisseton Hills
  this afternoon and evening.

- Probability of additional rainfall amounts of one inch or more
  is 40 to 70% James Valley and eastward, highest along and east
  of I29 this evening through Wednesday evening.

- Winds out of the north will increase this afternoon and
  evening with gusts of 30 to 45 mph, with locally higher gusts
  possible across central SD. These gusty winds will spread
  eastward tonight through Tuesday afternoon. A Wind Advisory is
  in effect for portions of central SD through Tuesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1238 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

As of 12pm, the center of the ~994mb low is hovering right over the
James River Valley with its cold front extending southward into NE.
East of the James River is still within the warm sector in south to
slight southeasterly flow where west of the James River is in
northwest to northerly flow behind the fropa. Per marginally steep
pressure gradients and weak CAA on the backside of the low, winds
will start to pick up across central SD this afternoon with gusts of
35 to 45 mph through this evening, with the highest gusts along and
west of the Mo River where a Wind Advisory has been issued.
Locally higher gusts are possible. With this position of the
low/front, areas between the Mo and James River are within the
dry slot with little to no rain falling as locations west of the
Mo is on the southern edge of the comma/wrap around with
scattered light rain showers. Rain also continues over far
NESD/MN.

The HRRR continues to show the threat for spotty thunderstorms
developing along the cold front (south of the warm front within the
warm sector) mainly across the Coteau and eastward this afternoon
into the early evening (~19-23Z). For this area, REFs SBCape is
pretty marginal (about 200j/kg) with a potential max of
500-1000j/kg and wind shear of 25-30kts. However, mid level
lapse rates are pretty weak with values of 4-5C/km. With this
cyclonic flow around the center of the low, REFS actually
indicates 0-1km SRH of 200- 300m2s2 and STP is up to 0.5 for a
few hours over eastern central SD (with the threat more south of
the CWA) and 0-1km shear around 20-25kts giving a slight curved
hodograph. So to reiterate, severe weather is not anticipated,
however, if convective parameters come together perfectly there
could be the potential for an isolated supercell or two capable
of producing a tornado. Again the chances of this happening are
very low, but not zero. SPC does not have this region outlooked
for any severe weather with just general thunderstorms possible.

By 00Z, the center of the low will continue to slowly track
northeast and positioned over SD/ND/MN border with the low over
~northeastern MN/WI by 12Z Tuesday. ENS is still a bit slower
and more southwest with the track than GEFS at this point. This
evening HRRR/REFS both indicate scattered rain showers ongoing
across western SD to portions of central SD (mainly north
central SD). Models both show the rain really tapering off over
much of the CWA by midnight, if not before, keeping coverage
pretty spotty (with the exception of far NE/SD closer to the
low). REFS/HRRR really does not have the rain filling back in
(and really James Valley and eastward) until late morning or
midday on Tuesday with rain continuing over this area through
Tuesday night. A secondary low to our south (tracking northeast
Tuesday night into Wednesday across IA into MN/WI) will bring
reinforced moisture, leading to more wrap around rain showers
during this time and even spreading back further west of the
James Valley Wednesday. The rain will finally taper off from the
Mo River eastward Wednesday evening into Thursday morning.
Probability of additional rainfall amounts of one inch or more
is 40 to 70% James Valley and eastward and highest along and
east of I29.

As the weak CAA spreads eastward (and ongoing steep pressure
gradients) the stronger winds will also spread eastward through the
overnight hours with gusts of 30 to 45 mph across the entire CWA by
Tuesday morning where it will remain gusty. Winds diminish a bit
Tuesday evening into Wednesday, but still remain breezy, with gusts
of 25 to 35 mph. Overall, winds really do not diminishing until late
Thursday or so.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1120 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

A mix of MVFR/IFR conditions continues through the TAF period as
periods of rain will continue. Any heavier rain shower could
drop cigs below IFR at times. Winds have shifted to the
northwest, behind the low, at KPIR and KMBG. Winds will continue
to increase through the afternoon with gusts at these terminals
up to 40kts. Widespread gusts of 25-40kts are expected across
the region overnight through Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory until 6 AM MST Tuesday for SDZ003-015.
     Wind Advisory from 4 PM CST /3 PM MST/ this afternoon to noon
     CST /11 AM MST/ Tuesday for SDZ033-045-048.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MMM
AVIATION...MMM