000
FXUS63 KABR 152333
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
633 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 633 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021

00z aviation discussion updated below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021

The forecast challenge is whether frost/sub-freezing temperatures
materialize overnight.

As of 2 PM CDT, skies are sunny to partly cloudy, with temperatures
ranging from the mid 40s to the low 50s on breezy west winds.

Still holding into a cool airmass over the region tonight. Unlike
last night/early this morning, there should be little to no
cloudiness over the CWA the whole night. Add in the surface winds
going light from the west or south-west, and should be able to
achieve that elusive "below freezing" low temperature later tonight
that has been missing from the past 3 or 4 weeks. Additionally,
areas that maybe don`t see below freezing temperatures tonight,
could end up with some decent frost formation by morning.
Frost/Freeze headlines are out for tonight/Saturday morning. Plan
accordingly! Airmass moderation and a little bit of weak low level
waa on Saturday should help nudge the mercury up into the upper 50s
to mid 60s, with Saturday night lows expected to fall into the upper
30s to low 40s.

Surface high pressure centers itself over the central plains by
Saturday before slowly shifting east into the mid-Mississippi River
valley Saturday night. Staying in the pressure gradient again on
Saturday should result in tonight`s light west or south-westerly
wind increasing back into the 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph
range out of the west by late morning. Saturday night should see the
winds going light once more while switching around to a south-
southwesterly direction.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021

Looks like trends from last night continue with the extended.
Initially looking at mild temperatures with 850mb readings warming
to around +12 to +14C Sunday and closer to +14 and +17C for Monday,
with the mild airmass overhead breaking down early Tuesday across
the western half of the CWA and into the east through Wednesday.  In
the warm advection ahead of the low that moves just south of the
CWA, profiles are slow to remove mid/low level dry air so trended
POPs back to the west compared to blended guidance with the latest
deterministic suite mostly holding precipitation on the west side of
the surface low through the early morning hours Wednesday.
Temperatures still warm enough for rain as the p-type, though some
of the guidance 850mb temperatures are close enough to 0C that we
might get some flakes mixed in across the higher terrain of our west
river counties. A cool down follows for the latter half of the work
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through tonight and Saturday at all
airports.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Freeze Warning from midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight to 10 AM
     CDT /9 AM MDT/ Saturday for SDZ003>011-017>020-022.

     Frost Advisory from midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight to 10 AM
     CDT /9 AM MDT/ Saturday for SDZ015-016-021-023-033>037-045-
     048-051.

MN...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Saturday for
     MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...Dorn
LONG TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...Mohr