768
FXUS63 KABR 240846
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
346 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty northwest winds behind a departing cold front this morning
  will gust between 35-50 mph before diminishing this afternoon. A
  Wind Advisory remains posted for most of central SD through late
  morning.

- A 20-60 percent chance for rain will be possible this morning
  mainly across parts of northeast SD into west central MN. The
  rain will taper off from west to east late this morning into the
  afternoon.

- Rain chances will become more widespread Sunday through Tuesday.
  Probabilities of seeing a half inch or more range from 30-60
  percent across north central SD to 60-90 percent from south
  central SD into northeast SD and west central MN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Weather conditions across the forecast area early this morning have
featured isolated showers and a few thunderstorms ahead of a cold
front that has pushed into central SD. Gusty northwest winds have
developed behind this front across central and western SD where
observed gusts have reached 45-50 mph in some locations. Cooler and
drier air has already begun to filter into central sections of the
state where temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s have taken hold
while our eastern zones are still holding onto the 60s.

The cold front will continue to shift east across our eastern
forecast area and is progged to clear our CWA by mid to late
morning. Guidance progs an increase in shower activity post fropa
across our eastern zones this morning into the first half of the
afternoon before tapering off. The strongest winds gusts are still
expected to set up west of the James Valley where speeds will range
between 40-50 mph through about late morning. Wind speeds are then
expected to gradually diminish this afternoon. A Wind Advisory will
remain posted for most of central SD until 15Z. High pressure will
slowly build into the area from the northwest this afternoon into
tonight. Parts of central SD will have a better chance of seeing
some clearing as a result. A much cooler, more seasonal air mass
will take over today with daytime temperatures in the 50s to low
60s. Tonight will feature some scattered clearing early, otherwise
clouds will persist or thicken overnight and despite this overnight
lows are expected to fall into the low to mid 30s.

Southwest flow is progged to remain the dominant upper flow pattern
across the Northern Plains this weekend through the middle of next
week. We will see a brief lull in rain chances tonight into Sunday
morning. An upper trough is progged to kick northeast into our
region late this weekend through Monday as an more broad upper low
tracks into the Pacific Northwest. Lead shortwave energy shifting
into SD on Sunday will kick off rain chances across southern SD.
With the sfc high poised to our north and northeast, a drier fetch
of air in the lower levels should effectively keep most of the rain
out of our northern and eastern zones most of the daytime hours on
Sunday. Once the main shortwave trough axis lifts overhead Sunday
night through the first half of Tuesday, more widespread rain chances
expand north and east. Rainfall probabilities of at least a half
inch or more are fairly high across our southern and eastern zones
where they range between 60-90 percent. Farther to the north and
west(north central SD), probabilities of these amounts range between
30-60 percent. Temperatures will actually be near to below normal
through the early portion of next week with daytime highs struggling
to reach 50 degrees on Monday into Tuesday. Overnight lows will be
near or just below the freezing mark. This could lead to the
potential for some wet snowflakes to mix in with the rain across
north central SD Monday into Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR cigs are still forecast through the TAF period. Currently
low level wind shear continues to affect KABR/KATY with the
threat diminishing the closer we get to 12Z as this LLWS shifts
more eastward into MN. Otherwise the cold front is currently
draped along and just east of the Missouri River with winds at
all TAF sites in southerly flow, with more southwesterly flow
right ahead of the front at KMBG. As this front track eastward
this morning, winds will shift out of the west then northwest
behind it. The fropa is expected to be along the SD/MN border by
12Z. Post frontal winds will be gustiest across KPIR/KMBG,
which are forecast to range from 25 to 35kts with gusts
potentially up to 40kts at times across central SD. Winds will
diminish west to east across the region later on this afternoon
and evening. Will also be watching -SHRA potential through
Saturday morning, with best chances over KATY region where
PROB30 was inserted. There is some potential these showers to
develop as far west as KPIR/KABR, but low confidence as of now
so no mention of
-SHRA at these sites. Will amend if needed.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory until 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning for
     SDZ003-015-033-045.
     Wind Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for SDZ004-005-009-
     010-016-034-035-048.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Vipond
AVIATION...MMM