467
FXUS63 KABR 151830
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
130 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Northwest winds of 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph will
continue this evening across central and north central South Dakota
behind a cold front. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for all
counties west of Brown and Spink through early Friday morning.

- Another round of light rain moves into eastern SD and west central
MN this evening before exiting late tonight. Up to a tenth of an
inch of rain is possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Gusty northwest winds continue to spread east today behind the sfc
cold front and with the upper trough. There have been a couple gusts
over 58 mph along and west of the Missouri in the clear air, better
mixing environment, but nothing widespread enough to merit an
upgrade. As the upper trough digs in more this evening, the 80 to
90kt jet will help keep the winds gusty overnight. Ensemble 90th
percentiles keep gusts to 50 mph over the Coteau and the Sisseton
Hills early Friday morning. Current NBM holds those gusts to around
40 mph, so did not expand the wind headlines farther east for now.

Another area of low clouds is wrapping around the low in northern ND
and pushing south into north central SD this afternoon. These clouds
are expected to expand and stick around most of the night. Some
additional sprinkles or light rain is possible in this
wraparound/deformation zone. Between the persistent winds and the
clouds, temperatures should not drop below freezing. Blended in hi-
res model guidance to push temps up a few degrees. Have lows in the
30s for tonight with Corson county approaching freezing as sfc high
pressure builds in from the west. Given the winds, decided not to go
with any frost headlines for tonight. However, Friday night/Saturday
morning will need another look for frost/freeze headlines. There are
still model differences in timing of a building ridge aloft and exit
of the sfc high that will influence Friday night`s lows.

Temperatures warm above normal starting Saturday with the ridge
aloft. Dry and warm conditions are then expected through the middle
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

MVFR cigs are expected to move back in through the afternoon on
northwest flow. Northwest winds will remain elevated through the
night with gusts of 30 to 40 kts.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ Friday for SDZ003>005-
     009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20