458
FXUS63 KABR 051448 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
948 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High temperatures today will warm into the 70s to mid 80s.
  These temperatures will steadily warm into the weekend before
  cooling back down early next week.

- There are a few windows (low probability) of opportunity for
  nighttime showers and thunderstorms later this week,
  primarily Thursday evening and overnight and again late Friday
  night into Saturday morning. But, right now, the best chance
  for widespread rainfall (30- 50 percent chance) is lining up
  for Sunday evening through Monday morning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

A beautiful morning thanks to a high pressure system overhead
with clear skies and light winds out of the southwest. Current
temperatures range in the 60s with dewpoints in the 50s.
Geocolor satellite indicates smoke aloft, mainly over central SD
with diminished air quality over portions of west/southwestern
SD indicating near surface smoke. Near surface smoke will filter
east today over central SD, but the lighter concentrations
should keep visibility from decreasing. Otherwise, expect
another dry and mild day with highs in the 70s and 80s. No major
changes to the forecast as it remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 623 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 119 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

As an upper-level trough moves out of SD today, northwest flow will
set up over the state and then sticks around into the weekend. High
surface pressure will be over the area today and will help to keep
showers and storms from developing most of the day. However, a
couple of models have hinted at some isolated shower development
over central and northeastern SD during the late afternoon into the
evening. There is low confidence in this occurring because of the
dry air mass over the state, but if there was a bit of moisture,
then something might be able to pop up. The northwest flow will help
to push the high surface pressure out of SD this evening.

Speaking of drier air, the minimum relative humidity this afternoon
is expected to drop around and slightly below 20% in some areas in
north central SD. Winds are expected to be fairly light in these
areas, with occasional gust of 15 to 20 mph possible during the
afternoon. These lighter winds help to keep fire weather concerns a
bit lower, however the dry conditions could be a bit of a concern as
it could make it easier for something to start. Temperatures today
will be warming into the upper 70s to mid 80s over central and
northeastern SD, with warmer temperatures expected in the coming
days. Wildfire smoke will continue to be pushed in aloft over SD
today and into Thursday, which could create some hazy skies in some
areas. As the surface high pressure moves southeast, some of that
smoke might make it to the surface over central SD. It doesn`t look
like there will be large concentrations of smoke that could reduce
visibilities, though individuals who are sensitive might experience
some effects from the smoke.

In the coming days, there does look to be occasional weak upper-
level shortwaves that move over SD along the northwest flow. These
shortwaves will help to support some surface boundaries moving over
the state as well as the development of a low level jet. There could
be some scattered showers and storms that develops over central and
northeastern SD Thursday, however there is lower confidence in the
development, with only a 20-30% chance. This is due to a few
factors, such as if there might be some moisture might be moving in,
when the surface boundary would move through central and
northeastern SD, and when the low level jet develops. Models
continue to vary the location, timing, and if any precipitation
develops at all. The low level jet could also help something to
develop Friday night as well. The next larger chance, 30-50%,
for showers and storms to develop looks to be Sunday evening
into Monday morning. The models show more moisture moving in
aloft as well as a frontal boundary moving through central and
northeastern SD to help storms develop. There is still
variability in the models as to the location and timing of the
showers and storms, which lowers confidence slightly. These
chances for storm and shower development in the coming days will
need to be watched to see if the models come to more agreement
as they get closer.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 623 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are currently forecast through the TAF period.
There may be a period of surface smoke (FU) in the KPIR region
this afternoon with potential 6SM VSBY. Confidence in MVFR VSBY
is low at this time.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MMM
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...TMT