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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD
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796 FXUS63 KABR 050527 AAC AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1227 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Marginal Risk is in place for storms developing Monday afternoon and evening. The main severe threats during that time frame will be hail of 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts of 60 to 70 miles per hour. - Temperatures roughly 5 to 10 degrees above normal (highs in the upper 80s to low 90s) are expected through at least the start of next week. There is potential for a cooldown closer to normal (highs in the mid 80s) by mid-week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026 See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 06Z TAFs. UPDATE Issued at 1034 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026 Clear skies are covering the area this evening behind the severe thunderstorms that occurred earlier in the day. There is the potential for some ground fog to develop late tonight into Sunday morning over eastern SD and western MN. While models are largely focused along and east of I-29, do think that there could be some fog along/west of the James River, especially where rain fell today and winds remain light before increasing out of the south towards morning. UPDATE Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026 Updated the forecast this evening to increase pops between the Missouri and James River valley where widespread storms have developed this afternoon. Updated aviation discussion below. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 153 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026 Weak troughing is currently in place across the northern plains with overall weak mid-level impulses traversing eastward. A few storms, marginally strong, have developed or continue to develop over central ND, north central MN, NW Iowa, and south central SD. The reason for mentioning these storm areas is to highlight the low forecaster confidence with regards to pops and thunderstorms the rest of the afternoon and evening. Cams have mostly failed to capture the morning convection across Jones county, where MRMS indicated subsevere hail at times. CAMS do show convection developing later this afternoon and evening over southeastern ND and northeastern SD, where a weak frontal boundary, mostly uncapped environment is located. Meso analysis from SPC shows 2K J/kg of ML cape, with extremely limited effective and deep layer shear. The environment is supportive of pulse thunderstorms, with marginal to low end severe hail and winds possible. With locations along and east of the James River in the Marginal Risk today, have kept 20-30 pop in the forecast through this afternoon and evening. The NCAR ensemble CAM viewer suggest a low severe potential near Sisseton and east into Minnesota. Later tonight through Sunday night should be mostly dry with above average temperatures. There could be patchy to areas of fog early Sunday morning. The weather pattern becomes active again early next week with a broad upper level trough over the southern Canadian prairies, with increasing LLM into the forecast area. Surface based cap values above 2K J/kg, modest deep layer shear should support strong to severe storms, primarily Monday evening and through the overnight hours. Upper level capping may limit convection during the daytime hours in this CWA. The upper level trough slowly crosses the region through midweek with additional chances for severe weather. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG There could be patchy to areas of fog during the early morning hours on Sunday, presently forecast to impact the KATY terminal for a few hours with IFR visby conditions. Otherwise, all four terminals are forecast to experience good VFR conditions throughout the TAF valid period. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...10 DISCUSSION...17 AVIATION...10 |
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NWS Aberdeen, SD (ABR) Office Forecast Discussions.
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