415
FXUS63 KABR 052313
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
513 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog may develop overnight into Friday morning. Some
  of if may become dense, reducing visibility to less than one
  half mile.

- Temperatures remain rather chilly on Friday, near to as much
  as 5 degrees below normal for early November.

- Temperatures Saturday through next Wednesday will warm up to 5
  to 15 degrees above normal for early November.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 503 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

West of the James valley has effectively cleared out, but with
east northeast flow, upslope and stratus advection, CAMS have
clouds/fog moving back in. As winds shift to south southeast,
this low level moisture isn`t going anywhere, and CAMS point to
stratus/fog even into late Friday/Friday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 136 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

At 1 PM CST, skies are becoming partly sunny across
portions of central/north central South Dakota, but remain
cloudy/overcast across northeast South Dakota into west central
Minnesota. Winds are out of the north-northeast 5 to 15 mph with
some occasional higher gusts and temperatures where it`s cloudy are
mainly in the 30s to low 40s. The very far southwestern corner of
the CWA is sunny, and temperatures there are in the mid 40s to low
50s this afternoon.

The forecast is dry throughout the entire 7-day forecast, thanks to
upper level ridging dominating the steering flow winds aloft for the
majority of the forecast period. Surface high pressure over the
region means winds go light and variable tonight, resulting in some
fog potential, if the low clouds go away allowing for maximum
radiation cooling. Short term ensemble guidance is highlighting
central and north central South Dakota with the best chance for fog
tonight into Friday morning (~50-70% chance for visby less than 1
mile).

Temperatures will be near normal on Friday. But the low level
thermal advection pattern is still forecast to transition to a WAA
pattern Friday afternoon/evening which persists through the weekend.
Warmer (above normal) temperatures then look to hold through the
middle of next week, despite one or more frontal passages that
temporarily swing winds around to the west-northwest.

Currently, one such frontal passage appears to align with
Saturday/night. Post frontal winds Saturday into Saturday night
could become blustery at times, particularly across the northern or
northeastern half of the CWA, with speeds potentially increasing to
15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph not out of the question. Beyond
Saturday/night, wind speeds appear to behave themselves throughout
most of the 7-day forecast. On the fire weather forecast side of
things, afternoon relative humidity values on Saturday may dip down
to a range from ~40 percent to 50 percent when those stronger winds
are happening. Current Grassland Fire Danger Index values top out in
the moderate to high range for Saturday. Monday could also see some
lower afternoon relative humidity values. Otherwise, the rest of the
7-day forecast appears to hold higher afternoon relative humidity
values.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 503 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

For KMBG/KPIR... while recently cleared, low level flow
becoming more east/northeast means upslope and redevelopment of
fog and low (MVFR/IFR) clouds. For KABR/KATY, MVFR to IFR
stratus will remain in place. For all sites, winds will weaken
and gradually shift from north northeast (now) to southerly
(around mid-day Friday).


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...07