708
FXUS63 KABR 060003 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
603 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- After a brief period of near normal cold weather on Friday,
  above normal high temperatures return Saturday and continue
  into Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday of next week should be cooler
  while the next weather system moves across the region.

- There is a 35-65% chance of precipitation occurring from late
  tonight through Friday night. Precipitation may start off as
  drizzle or freezing drizzle prior to sunrise Friday. The Prairie
  Coteau of northeast South Dakota over into west central
  Minnesota stands the best chance of seeing drizzle/rain on
  Friday before a moving corridor of wintry mix precipitation
  (freezing rain, sleet and snow) chases the rain eastward into
  Minnesota Friday afternoon into Friday night.

- There is a 30-60 percent chance of precipitation next Monday
  night and Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 539 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 00Z TAFS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

As of 2 PM CST, fog and low clouds have dissipated over the
forecast area. Mostly just a mix of sun and high clouds.
Temperatures are in the 40s, 50s and 60s (low 70s along I-90 south
of Pierre). Winds hold a southerly component over most of the CWA
around 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. The east-west
stationary boundary is re-orientating to more of a north-south
positioning across the Missouri River valley. West of this boundary,
temperatures are notably cooler, with readings in the 40 to near 50
degrees and winds are west-northwest around 5 to 15 mph.

Compared to 24 hours ago, ensembles guidance is shifting Friday`s
system a bit further east/south in the region as it moves across
Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota into Wisconsin from late tonight
through early Saturday morning. Guidance PoPs, qpf and snow/ice
forecast amounts have trended a little bit further south/east this
go around, with 35 to 65 PoPs for measurable precipitation
continuing (highest across the southeastern half of the CWA). The
probability of 2 or more inches of snow in a 24 hour period (mainly
Friday/Friday night) is ~25-50 percent and lines up mainly over the
southeastern half of the CWA. The probability of 0.01 inch or more
of freezing rain in a 24 hour period is ~25-55 percent and shows up
the strongest throughout and east of the James River valley late
tonight through late Friday evening. Prior to onset of rain/snow
producing mid-level clouds, both the NAM and RAP models are very
supportive of a 1-2km deep stratus layer capable of generating
drizzle or freezing drizzle by 6 AM CST Friday. Have introduced a
preliminary Winter Weather Advisory headline for a wintry bag of
freezing rain/freezing drizzle then snow where forecast confidence
is highest in seeing those p-types play out. Future shifts will
likely have to adjust start/end times and areal coverage, but for
now, the headline covers the James River valley (Brown/Spink
counties) over into west central Minnesota. Still seems like if
there is to be plain rain in this scenario it is aligning itself
across the Prairie Coteau into west central Minnesota Friday
morning/afternoon before the freezing rain/sleet/snow transition
zone transitions its way across said region Friday
afternoon/evening. The lesser confidence area of the CWA (the
counties west of the the James River valley) may also end up seeing
a very brief window of freezing drizzle Friday morning. But, the
concern over the western zones is mainly for an inch or two of snow
potential, combined with sustained northwest winds around 15 to 30
mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Pretty strong low level CAA signal
showing up there tonight into early Friday morning. It`s possible,
though, that the strongest winds don`t end up overlapping when
falling snow is occurring on Friday over the western half of the
CWA. At any rate, continued mentioning the minor blowing snow
potential Friday into Friday night when there is snow falling.

The 7-day temperature forecast trend and chances for precipitation
next Monday night through Tuesday night remain relatively unchanged.
The boundary layer should be plenty warm enough to support rain p-
type at the onset of early next week`s potential precipitation
event.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 539 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals early this evening
before sub-VFR conditions return by late this evening into the
early morning hours on Friday as a storm system moves into the
region from the southwest. MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys will become
more prevalent at all terminals later tonight through Friday
afternoon with rain, snow or sleet or a combination thereof
expected. Cigs/vsbys as low as LIFR/VLIFR will be possible at
times, especially at the KATY terminal. Southerly winds at all TAF
sites this evening, with the exception of KMBG(already northerly)
will become northerly late this evening into the early overnight
and gust between 20-30 knots at times. These north winds will
persist through the end of this TAF cycle.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 10 AM CST Saturday
     for SDZ008-020>023.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 4 AM CST Saturday
     for SDZ006-007-011-018-019.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 10 AM CST Saturday
     for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Vipond
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...Vipond