858
FXUS63 KABR 130553 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1253 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a chance (30-50%) of light showers and drizzle along
  with possible thunder over north central South Dakota
  Tuesday, with a few hundredths of an inch of rain. There is a
  30-60% chance of light rain late Wednesday into Thursday.

- Northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph will be
  possible Thursday afternoon and evening across central and
  north central South Dakota.

- Overnight lows could drop below the freezing mark under clear
  sky nights, mainly Tuesday night, Thursday night, and Friday
  night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 06Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 702 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Extended the potential for drizzle for a few more hours, and
expanded fog as well. We`ll continue to monitor the latest
trends from this low level moisture and may need to expand the
mention of lower visibility even more as the night continues.
Otherwise, the cloud cover was increased and the overnight
temperatures were increased as a result.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

At 1 PM CDT, skies are cloudy. Isolated rain showers (with some
embedded thunder) and spotty drizzle continue. Fog is lifting for
most areas. Still seeing some dense fog on/east of the Prairie
Coteau at this time. Winds are anchored on a northerly direction
around 5 to 15 mph. And, temperatures have not budged; sitting in
the mid 40s to mid 50s. Temperatures across the extreme
east/southeast portion of forecast zones are reading in the low to
mid 60s.

Expecting the forcing/lift attached to the current shortwave working
through the region to terminate by late afternoon/early evening.
And, that should bring a brief end to the showers and drizzle
around. However, the set-up in the low levels of the atmosphere is
not going to change all that much heading into Tuesday morning.
There could be another round of fog (locally dense) in the morning.
Also, as additional shortwave energy lifts out of the southwestern
CONUS and works up into the northern plains region, the potential
for showers and perhaps even more drizzle will increase. Once that
shortwave departs Tuesday afternoon, most of the CWA reverts back to
a dry forecast through the end of the period. It`s the area
basically south of a line from Mission Ridge to Milbank that could
encounter more light rainfall heading into Wednesday night/lasting
into Thursday as low pressure lifts out of the intermountain west
and works its way across the plains.

Ensembles clusters analysis shows the pattern de-amplifying and
becoming a dry forecast period from Thursday night through the end of
the period. Deterministic models are portraying something similar.
Cloud cover really holds the keys as far as night time temperatures
go. As long as the low clouds are in place, diurnal ranges probably
don`t swing much more than 5 to 10 degrees over the next couple of
days. During this cool stretch, if clouds do dissipate, expect
frosty conditions to be possible. Some areas could be flirting with
sub-freezing temperatures either Tuesday night or Wednesday night,
if skies clear off. The other timeframe of interest is Thursday
night through Friday night, when models are blasting a strong cold
frontal passage through the region, drawing some of the coldest air
of the season down across South Dakota. Sub-freezing readings are
possible Thursday night and Friday night. The frontal passage on
Thursday into Thursday night could be packing some rather strong
post-frontal northwest winds as well. Portions of central and north
central South Dakota could be looking at advisory strength winds
and/or gusts. The air temperature (925hpa) within the mixing layer
on Friday is only in the 3-6C range, so high temperatures on Friday
may not make it out of the 40s for some.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

MVFR CIGs will affect the region again during the overnight
hours and into the day Tuesday. In fact, CIGs may sneak into IFR
over KATY. Forecast is for CIGs to trend VFR by late in the TAF
period. Scattered -SHRA are also expected to move northeast
through the region overnight into the day Tuesday and will use
PROB30 to handle this. Don`t expect much in the way of VSBY
reduction from -SHRA. As for FG/BR this morning, models are
backing off on this and for now will have no mention of this in
the TAFs, but will certainly continue to monitor trends.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...TMT