718
FXUS63 KABR 032353 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
653 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Red Flag Warning remains in effect into this evening over
  portions of central and north central South Dakota due to dry
  fuels and 20 to 35 mph north winds, including gusts up to 45
  mph.

- Storms may develop later this evening into the early overnight
  hours along a cold front moving over the area. A Marginal Risk
  (Level 1 of 5) is in place for parts of northeastern and
  central South Dakota, as well as western Minnesota. A Slight
  Risk (Level 2 of 5) clips part of far northeastern South
  Dakota and western Minnesota. With these storms, the main
  severe threats will be hail of one inch in diameter and wind
  gusts of 60 to 70 mph. Additionally, the development of a
  tornado or two cannot be ruled out in far northeastern South
  Dakota and west central Minnesota.

- Near surface smoke moving into the region may contain a few
  pockets of concentration of smoke high enough that the smell
  of smoke in the air can be detected, possibly reducing
  visibilities down to 5-7 miles. Air quality could drop through
  the early evening mainly west of the Missouri River, and
  tonight across northeast South Dakota and west central
  Minnesota. Those with breathing sensitivities should plan
  accordingly.

- After Monday, downright chilly feeling lows in the upper 40s
  to mid 50s is forecast for the next few nights, along with
  high temperatures only warming into the 70s Tuesday and 70s to
  low 80s on Wednesday. Then, look for a gradual warm up back
  into above climo normal territory heading into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 640 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 00Z TAFS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

At 1 PM CDT, skies are a mix of sun and clouds. Isolated to widely
scattered elevated showers/sprinkles continue over South Dakota.
Temperatures are warming into the 80s out ahead of a cold front
analyzed from near Leola down to Kennebec. Behind the front,
temperatures have only warmed into the 70s to around 80 degrees.
Ahead of the front, winds are southerly 15 to 25 mph with some
higher gusts at times. Behind the front, winds are becoming
northerly around 20 to 30 mph with gusts over 40 mph at times.
Currently seeing a mid-level thermal capping inversion of +14C to
+16C at 700hpa. It was stronger/warmer than that earlier this
morning, and is expected to continue to decrease/cool-off a few more
degrees through late this evening.

The cold front will continue to march east, departing the
southeastern corner of the CWA at or after 10 PM CDT. Acting as a
forcing mechanism, the front may have enough time to interact with
energy aloft while still over the CWA this evening to begin
producing boundary-layer (not elevated) sourced convection, once the
mid-level thermal capping inversion has been eroded sufficiently.
Still thinking if convection develops, the shear/instability in
place favors the eventual formation of rotating updrafts/supercells
that move east out of the CWA late this evening into the early
overnight hours.

With surface obs across the western Dakotas (post-frontal) reporting
visibility 6-8 miles, thinking that near surface smoke is going to
be enough over this CWA from early this evening through early
Tuesday morning to continue mentioning in the weather gridded
element of the forecast database and in the messaging. By mid-
morning on Tuesday, the HRRR has progged the bulk of this near
surface smoke to have shifted south of the CWA.

With lower heights aloft over the CWA and a decent low level CAA/dry
air advection sequence ongoing, Tuesday and Wednesday continue to
look cooler than normal for (both high and low) temperature.
Ensemble clusters analysis and deterministic GSM output continue to
support a dry extended forecast with a semi-flat upper ridge
west/upper trof central and east CONUS holding court, such that the
steering flow is expected to become west-northwesterly Thursday
through Monday of next week. In fact, some of the Clusters analysis
suggests that eventually/slowly the western CONUS upper ridge will
intensify, leading to the warming of temperatures back into the
mid/upper 80s to upper 90s from east to west throughout the region,
particularly Friday through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 640 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Potential for a SHRA/TSRA remains for the KATY terminal through
the late evening hours that could bring cigs/vsbys down to MVFR
or near MVFR ranges. If this activity materializes, it is
expected to be east and gone from the terminal by around
midnight. Otherwise, gusty northerly winds will persist at
KABR/KPIR/KMBG this evening into the early overnight with VFR
conditions expected at these sites. KATY will initially start
this forecast period with gusty southerly winds before switching
to the west and northwest by mid evening. VSBY restrictions due
to wildfire smoke will remain possible through late evening and
overnight before thinning and clearing out.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
     SDZ003-015-016-033-034-045.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Vipond
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...Vipond