201
FXUS63 KABR 192358
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
658 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog, with visibilities around 3 miles, is expected across far
  northeastern South Dakota and west central Minnesota overnight
  into Friday morning.

- High temperatures Friday and Saturday will average 25 to 35
  degrees above normal. Expect more seasonal temperatures briefly
  for Sunday, with highs in the 40s to low 50s.

- Fire weather concerns remain over central South Dakota through
  Saturday, with afternoon gusts 20-25 mph Friday and Saturday.
  Watch for winds shifting out of a northerly direction and
  increasing with gusts around 30 mph late Saturday afternoon into
  Saturday evening.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 658 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Very dry conditions continue west of the MO River. Portions of
central and western Corson and Dewey Counties of north central SD
are still experiencing gusts of 25-35mph. These winds will slowly
diminish over the next couple of hours with the loss of daytime
heating/mixing. Record high temperatures occurred today at
Mobridge, Pierre, and Aberdeen.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Just a quick reflection on the NBM handling of temperatures
yesterday and how might it look going forward, the NBM was still 3
to 5 degrees too cool in central/north central SD and as much as 8
degrees too cool in the northeast. I`m going to chalk that up to an
influence of snow cover which does`t appear have quite the signal in
the current run with much warmer temperatures forecast for the
northeast moving forwards.

A little less bias in NBM high temperatures Today/Friday/Saturday
showing up in comparison to 24 hours ago, but we are still seeing
about a 2-5 degree cool bias in comparison to the NBM 50th
percentile for today and closer to 2-3 degrees in general for
tomorrow. For Saturday, with a low developing overhead and frontal
passage aiding in mixing, particularly in northeastern South Dakota
there is little difference between the deterministic and mean NBM
output for high temperatures.

As for dewpoints/humidity. So far today is on track with some 40+
degree dewpoints lingering, and while a little drier out west
they remain well within the realm NBM/CAM output. Thus, not making
any wholesale adjustments to dewpoints/relative humidity. Same
goes for winds, though cold advection in the wake of Saturdays
system may add a bit of gustiness.

Fire weather remains the chief concern given the abnormal warmth and
drying fuels. So far, Friday and Saturday are marginal for Red Flag
conditions if at all. Situation is a bit more complicated with the
system passage Saturday, however since that is in the late
afternoon/evening it will only be an issue if any fires are ongoing.

NBM Sunday temperatures are closer to Climo, however going into next
week, with an upper pattern that features a pair of weak waves
through mid week, we will see brief surges of milder air but nothing
on the scale of what is going on currently. Still a bit of
uncertainty with these features and how they impact temperatures,
with spread in the NBM 25th-75th ranges 10 degrees for highs Tuesday
and 20 degrees for highs Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 658 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected to continue at all sites over the next
24 hours. The only exception is the potential for fog to develop
overnight, but with less coverage than what occurred last night.
TEMPO was included from 10-14Z at ATY for 3 miles visibility due
to fog. We will continue to monitor the latest trends, and may
need to update this TAF through the night due to fog development.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...06