432
FXUS63 KABR 081449 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
949 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An isolated storm or two (20-40%) possible this morning over
  south central SD. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) extends
  through south central South Dakota with the main threats being
  hail up to 1 inch and wind gusts of 60 mph.

- Another round of isolated to scattered (20-40%) storms is
  expected this evening overnight into Sunday morning with the
  focus mainly east of the Missouri River. A Marginal Risk (1 of
  5) extends up across this area, with the main threats being
  hail of 1 inch and wind gusts of 60 mph.

- Smoke aloft is expected to persist the next several days,
  however there is little potential for the smoke at the
  surface.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 937 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Very little in the way of any changes to the forecast for the
rest of today are needed. Continue to monitor south central
sections of SD in our CWA for an isolated shower or storm
through the remainder of the morning. Earlier, had one lone
shower/storm try to get going south of I-90 in far southern
Jones/Lyman but it was short lived. Potential for additional
isolated activity exists through midday in those areas of our
CWA before shifting into our eastern zones this afternoon,
although any aid from the low level jet will be waning with
time this morning. Temperatures and wind trends the rest of
today remain on track as southerly breezes draw in higher low
level moisture as dew points in the upper 50s to mid 60s are
expected this afternoon.

UPDATE Issued at 607 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 131 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

An upper-level shortwave will be moving over SD early this morning.
As this shortwave moves over, a warm front will be pushing through
western and central SD. This warm front, in combination with a low
level jet pushing moisture into central SD and support from the
uppre-level shortwave, could cause some scattered showers and storms
to develop this morning. The high-res models do vary the location of
these storms, as some of them have the storms moving through south
central SD while others keep them to the south. These storms have a
marginal risk (level 1 of 5) to become severe if something were to
develop. This is because of the shear available from the low level
jet as well as some stronger mid-level lapse rates, which could
cause 1 inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts to get to the surface.
Through the morning, the low level jet will dissipate, and the storm
threat also decreases. Temperatures will warm slightly behind the
warm front moving through. Highs today are expected to be in the 80s
to mid 90s, with the warmest temperatures over areas west of the
Missouri river. The wildfire smoke will continue to move in over SD
along the upper-level northwest flow for the coming days. This smoke
looks to continue to stay aloft over central and northeastern SD and
cause hazy skies.

Another upper-level shortwave is forecast to move over SD again
during the evening into Sunday morning as the models are showing a
frontal boundary and/or a surface low moving over northeastern SD.
The warmer temperatures through the day will help to build the
instability over central and northeastern SD, with some models
showing 1000-2000 J/kg of CAPE over the area by tonight. This
instability, in combination with a front/surface low moving through,
will cause some scattered showers and storms to develop late this
afternoon into Sunday morning. The models vary how much and where
moisture might move in over the area, which does lead to a
difference in the models as to where and when storms might develop.
In addition to the moisture, the models also show a stronger CAP
developing over central and northeastern SD, which would limit the
development of storms. Some models have the storms developing in
north central SD during the evening where there is less of a CAP and
then moving southeast across the area while other models will have
some storms break through the CAP in northeastern SD during the
overnight hours. Then during the overnight hours, another low level
jet will be developing and will help to provide shear to support the
storms over northeastern SD. Additionally, there will be some fairly
decent mid-level lapse rates, which will help to support the
development of large hail and strong winds. There is a Marginal risk
(level 1 of 5) for these storms to become severe if one develops.
The main hazards will be for wind gusts of 60 mph and hail of 1 inch
or more in diameter.

Cooler temperatures will be moving in behind the surface low Sunday
and into next week. High temperatures will be in the upper 70s to
upper 80s. Models still vary the chances for shower and storm Sunday
night into Monday as the chances for storms to actually occur have
decreased through the previous model runs. The showers/storms look
to develop along a surface boundary in WY/MT Sunday evening. Then
they will move east through the evening overnight into Monday
morning. The models vary in how far these showers and storms make it
before they dissipate, with some models having the storms move
through ND, some have them get into western SD, other have the
storms move through central and northeastern SD, and other models
have the storms die off before getting anywhere close to the area.
This has lowered confidence in showers and storms developing, but
chances still remain between 30-50% chance that something moves over
the area Sunday night into Monday morning. There is a marginal risk
(level 1 of 5) for storms to become severe if they develop, with the
main hazard of 1 inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts. Evening and
overnight precipitation chances continue into next week as the upper-
levels continue to push shortwaves over SD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 607 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through tonight. An
isolated shower/storm is possible this morning at KPIR, and then
later this afternoon at/near KATY. Later this evening,
convection may develop over North Dakota and shift down across
the KMBG/KABR/KATY terminals.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Vipond
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...10