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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD
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626 FXUS63 KABR 252310 AAB AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 610 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is now just a 20-40% chance of 1/4" moisture over far northern Corson county and a 15% or less chance across the rest of the Missouri valley tonight into Friday morning. Negligible moisture expected for the James valley and points east. - The probability of exceeding wind advisory criteria (45 mph) is between 30 and 60% west of the James valley Saturday. - There is Marginal Risk (1 of 5) for severe weather Saturday. Confidence is low on storm development due to very warm temperatures above the surface. If storms do form, all hazards will be possible. - Above normal temperatures for the weekend and next week. Temperatures are forecast into the 90s and dewpoints well into the 60s. This will push heat index values into the mid 90s with increased risk for heat related illnesses. && .UPDATE... Issued at 526 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026 Increased pops across Stanley, Jones, and Lyman county until 2z, leaning more toward the NAMnest which seems to match current radar returns better than other models. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1215 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026 As of 12:15 PM CDT, temperatures across the area are in the upper 60s to low 70s and will get into the high 70s by the end of the day. Winds are light and moving around to be out of the east today. There is a 50-70% chance of some showers and weak thunderstorms moving in from the west into north central SD later this evening into the early morning hours of Friday. Farther south the chances are closer to 20 to 40%. No severe weather is expected at this time. QPF is still relatively limited with the chance of more than a quarter inch around 20 to 40% in far northern Corson county and 15% or less to the south and west of the Missouri River. Looking once again to the weekend system, we are still seeing a good cap over the area on Saturday in the GFS and now the NAM. The EC and Canadian ensembles are not showing as much of a cap. This continues the low confidence in storm development Saturday afternoon. However, looking at hodographs, they still have a good bit of shear in the lower levels and all hazards will be possible. The forecast location of the low Saturday morning is still over MT/WY and then it looks to stall over central SD Sunday. QPF amounts have dropped significantly again and now the chance of more than a quarter inch in 24 hours (ending Sunday morning) is about 35% or less across the entire forecast area. There is a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe storms along and west of a line from Sisseton to Fort Thompson, and again, if storms form, all hazards will be possible. SPC has put a 15% area just across the border in ND for Sunday which may get extended into our area when it becomes day 3. At this time, there is a severe cap Sunday but if storms form, they could become severe. There is another 15% area over our central MN counties and into Roberts county for Monday with some storms in the later evening and overnight hours on the backside of the weekend low pressure. The other big story in the forecast is the high temperatures and high humidity starting Sunday. Temperatures will rise into the 80s and 90s across the forecast area, warmest across eastern SD. Dewpoints are forecast to rise into the 60s. This will result in heat index values in the 90s across eastern SD which will push the HeatRisk into the moderate to major categories. This heat will affect anyone without access to cooling or hydration. Winds Friday are expected to gust 30 to 35 mph mainly around and west of the Missouri River. They are not expected to diminish much at all overnight before spreading east across the vast majority of the forecast area and increasing to 35 to 45 mph. The probability of exceeding wind advisory criteria (45 mph) is between 30 and 60% west of the James River Valley. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 609 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions will prevail through Friday afternoon. However, KPIR may experience some brief MVFR cigs Friday morning. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...20 DISCUSSION...13 AVIATION...20 |
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NWS Aberdeen, SD (ABR) Office Forecast Discussions.
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