785
FXUS63 KABR 201928
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
128 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Generally above normal temperatures this weekend into next week
is expected. Highs will peak during the middle of next week, where
highs will range from the 40s to 50s.

- There is a slight chance (15-24%) for a light wintry mix of precip
Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Little to no accumulation is
expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 119 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

Ahead of an area of high pressure, gusty northwesterly winds are
continuing this afternoon, up to 40 miles per hour on the downslope
side of the Prairie Coteau as of 19Z. These winds are expected to
calm down as the high moves in, switching to become southerly
overnight. Otherwise, clear skies and dry conditions are expected
through the rest of this evening and overnight tonight.

Hi-res models are showing an increasing signal for some light
precipitation moving over central into eastern South Dakota Sunday
afternoon and evening. Model soundings indicate that precip
formation will occur fairly high up in the profile (~600-500mb
layer) with a dry layer beneath. Therefore, it will take some
saturation for anything to make it to the surface. Forecaster
confidence is low on this occurring, but it will not be out of the
question to see some precip, and have therefore added some slight
chance PoPs to the forecast at this time. Wet bulb zero temperatures
in the near-surface layer will be hovering near freezing, with a bit
of a warmer layer above in both air and wet-bulb temps. Therefore
anticipating ice aloft to melt on the way down and falling as rain
at the surface, perhaps transitioning to freezing rain in the latter
portion of the day.

A persistent upper-level ridge settles overhead this week, leading
to little to speak of in terms of precipitation chances through the
week. A warmer air mass moves in as a result of the ridge, and by
mid-week surface high temperatures will range from the low 40s in
the northeast to the mid-50s over central South Dakota (15-25
degrees above late-December normals). With the current forecast
cycle, temperatures over central South Dakota may be able to set
records Wednesday (~40% chance), but still plenty of time for that
the adjust.

With these abnormally warm temperatures through the week, any
lingering snowpack will melt off. Therefore, concern will be the
drying out of fuels, particularly over central South Dakota where
the warmest temperatures will be. The current outlook places parts
of central South Dakota under a High Grassland Fire Danger. However,
minimum afternoon humidity will remain high (>40%) and wind gusts
generally expected to remain below 25 miles per hour through the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1103 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Mostly clear skies and dry conditions are expected through the rest
of today and into Sunday. The main aviation concern through the
period are the gusty winds over northeastern South Dakota this
morning, reaching between 30 and 40 miles per hour as of 17Z. These
winds are expected to decrease through the afternoon and evening
today as a high pressure center moves overhead. As the high moves
out tonight, winds will turn southerly and are expected to remain
gentle.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...BC