003
FXUS63 KABR 190934
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
334 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow expected Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening.
  There is a 30 to 60% chance of 1" of snow or more, mainly over
  north central and portions of northeastern South Dakota.

- Another round of light accumulating snow will be possible Wednesday
  with a 20-60 percent chance for seeing at least 1 inch or more
  of snow for north central and northeast South Dakota and west
  central Minnesota.

- Gusty northwest winds develop on Wednesday ranging from 25-45 mph
  with the strongest winds expected across central South Dakota.
  Blowing snow and reduced visibilities will be possible.

- Very cold temperatures and dangerous wind chills will be possible
  Thursday through the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 330 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Main concern for today will be arctic air mass in place with
temperatures running about 5-15 degrees below average for highs and
about 5-10 degrees below average James Valley and eastward late
tonight for lows. Otherwise, another clipper will skirt over the
region Tuesday bringing another round of light snow. High pressure
continues to filter in from the northwest early this morning and
will be dominant over the region, tracking southeast through the
day. At the same time a northwest to southeast stationary frontal
boundary sits off to our west/southwest over the Rockies. Another
high will move in this evening through the overnight. This high
moving in this morning will continue to diminish winds through 12Z
with overall wind speeds by this afternoon between 5-15 mph, with
our far western CWA getting up to 20 mph. Winds will be mainly calm
overnight. Continuing in the northwest flow aloft, our next
shortwave will track southeast out of western Canada and over the
Upper Rockies/Northern Plains Tuesday morning/midday, with the axis
of the slightly positive shortwave over the Northern Plains by
Tuesday evening.

This wave will bring the return of light snow with CAMS
indicating this precip moving in over north central SD around ~12Z
per RAP/HRRR Tuesday (other CAMs are an hour or two later), tracking
southeastward across the CWA through Tuesday afternoon/evening (Bit
of a difference on exact time it exits our southeastern CWA). NBM
highlights this well and have increased pops with the latest run
with pops of 50-70%, highest over north central SD and southeastward
through Watertown area. NBM QPF amounts are a few hundredths less
than WPC. So with collab, did a 50/50 blend the both, which matches
closer to the HREF, up to about 0.10". Looking at soundings over
north central, much of the lift and saturated column is within the
DGZ zone (lower column closer to surface a bit below it) which gives
higher confidence on the NBM snow ratios of 15-17:1, indicating snow
will be light and fluffy. Snow amounts are forecast to range from a
trace to around an inch, with probability of an inch or more at 30-
60%, highest over north central SD and portions of northeastern
SD. Probability of snowfall of 2" is less than 10%. Luckily 850mb
winds with this first wave will not be nearly as strong (30-40kts
over central SD by the late afternoon) with wind gusts at the
surface 20kts or less, highest west of the Mo River. So kept
winds/gusts straight NBM. Latest BLSN model really does not show
much in the way of drifting or blowing snow at this time.

With this arctic air mass, highs for today will range in the single
digits above zero to the lower 20s, with the coldest temps east of
the James River. Wind chills by noon will still run in the single
digits to teens below zero James Valley and eastward. With winds
switching southerly west of the Mo late tonight, temps will not get
as cold here with overall temps across the CWA in the single digits
below zero to the single digits above zero, again coldest James
Valley and eastward and warmest west of the Mo River. Wind chills
are forecast to range in the single digits to teens below zero east
of the Mo River, coldest over the Coteau. As winds turn more
southerly across the rest of the CWA for Tuesday, temps will be
slightly warmer in the teens to lower 20s east of the Mo River and
20s to lower 30s west of here.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 330 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

This period begins Tuesday night and early Wednesday with a
departing shortwave trough and associated sfc low pressure system
and cold front to our southeast. Our forecast area will find itself
in between systems during this time but it will be brief. The next
upper trough is progged to dig southeast across the Dakotas on
Wednesday dragging another strong cold front through the area and
increasing potential for accumulating snow. NBM probabilities of
seeing at least 1 inch or greater of snowfall Wednesday range from
20-60 percent with the highest probs in a swath from north central
SD into northeast SD and west central MN. Increasing winds will
accompany this system. Guidance progs the timing of the fropa to
during the morning and midday hours on Wednesday. Strong northwest
winds are expected to develop during that time and persist through
the end of the day. NBM wind probs for seeing wind gusts in excess
of 45 mph or Wind Advisory criteria range from 50-90 percent and
that`s mainly located across our SD zones. The highest of these
probs are situated along and west of the James Valley. The forecast
area will likely experience another bout of blowing snow and reduced
visibilities on Wednesday, especially in areas that do see falling
snow or recently fallen snow.

In the wake of the fropa on Wednesday, models prog the flood gates
to open to the arctic. A strong 1040+mb sfc high pressure system
looks to begin building into the Dakotas the latter half of Thursday
with strong cold air advection and plummeting temperatures into the
teens below zero Thursday night into Friday. If there`s any bit of
wind in place, wind chill values could fall into a 25 below to
nearly 40 below range. Probabilities of seeing air temperatures
colder than 15 degrees below zero range from 50-80 percent from
parts of north central SD eastward into the James Valley and the
rest of northeast SD and west central MN. This potential arctic
outbreak could persist for at least a few days right into the
upcoming weekend. By late in the period, or early next week,
temperatures may start to slowly modify but still remain below
normal for late January.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1120 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Expect VFR conditions and winds diminishing with gusts of 25kts
or less at most locations by 08Z. At ATY, MVFR ceilings are
expected to continue until 09Z and wind gusts will take until
around 11Z to diminish to 25kts or less.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM...Vipond
AVIATION...06