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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD
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490 FXUS63 KABR 102353 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 653 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Around a 25 to 50 percent chance of light rain showers heading into early Saturday morning mainly over the Glacial Lakes region, with just a few hundredths of precipitation potential. 20- 30% chance of light rain showers Saturday night (isolated to scattered coverage). - Well above normal temperatures Sunday, highs in the 70s to low 80s (15 to 25 above normal). West winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Grassland Fire Danger increases to High/Very High category both Saturday and Sunday. - Potentially active period of precipitation chances off and on from Monday through Friday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 646 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026 The aviation discussion has been updated for the 00Z TAFS. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 136 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026 At 1 PM CDT, skies are sunny, and temperatures are warming through the 40s into the 50s. Winds have settled in from the south generally around 5 to 15 mph with some occasionally higher gusts; lightest winds over toward the South Dakota/Minnesota border while strongest winds are along/west of the Missouri River valley. Over the next 24 hours, low level jet southerlies are going to transport Gulf moisture up into the region. This is expected to translate into the blossoming of an expansive area of low stratus over the central/northern plains on Saturday. The western edge of the low cloud field may end up settling down along/near the ABR and UNR CWA borders Saturday afternoon. While this moisture surge is happening, the steering winds aloft will eventually switch around to southwesterly on Saturday, leaving the CWA under some form of westerly or southwesterly flow for the rest of the forecast period. Models/ensembles depict a "wave train" pattern developing by early next week, continuing through Friday of next week. So, plenty of precipitation potential throughout the 7-day. As expected, there is not an ensemble-powered 12-hour PoP block that doesn`t have measurable PoPs in it between tonight and Friday of next week. Right now, it seems the models imply mid/upper level shortwave passages about once every 36 to 48 hours, starting Sunday night. Over these first 36 hours of the forecast, models/ensembles are currently still latching on to some isolated/scattered shower potential late tonight through Saturday late morning mainly east of a line from Redfield to Sisseton. Beyond that, ensembles and CAMs are basically dry for the rest of Saturday through Sunday. The clouds (be they stratus or otherwise) that are expected to develop on Saturday will somewhat hamper the warm-up being advertised for Saturday. As low level winds become more westerly on Sunday, low clouds over the CWA are expected to end, and efficient mixing westerly PBL winds should aide sunshine to produce high temperatures in the 70s, to perhaps 80s for some locations. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 646 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all terminals tonight into Saturday morning. MVFR CIGs will begin returning by mid to late morning, especially at KABR/KATY/KMBG TAF sites. Increasing southeast winds will turning gusty by early to mid morning Saturday. Wind gusts of 25-30 knots will be possible by midday through Saturday afternoon. PROB30 groups for light rain shower remain in the forecast for KATY Saturday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 136 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026 Monitoring fire weather conditions over the weekend, due to strong southerly winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph on Saturday and westerly winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph on Sunday. Higher relative humidity and cloud cover on Saturday east of the Missouri River valley will help to keep the Grassland Fire Danger index from getting out of hand, but along/west of the Missouri River valley on Saturday, elevated fire concerns may happen for a couple of hours late in the day. Similarly, on Sunday, a drying/warming westerly component wind (not as strong as Saturday), including frequent gusts 25-30mph, in tandem with afternoon relative humidity potentially falling to 20-25 percent will place western/southwestern fire weather zones rather close to Red Flag conditions. Also, in between potential rounds of rain this upcoming week, there are a few days where relative humidity could fall to or below 25 percent. So, an eye is being kept on that, as well. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Vipond DISCUSSION...10 AVIATION...Vipond FIRE WEATHER...10 |
Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Aberdeen, SD (ABR) Office Forecast Discussions.
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