659
FXUS63 KABR 281116 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
616 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for light rain showers are expected over the next few
  days. Mainly over central South Dakota today, with more
  widespread chances for rain Wednesday and Thursday. A tenth of
  an inch or less of rainfall is currently expected today and
  Wednesday.

- High temperatures 5 to 15 degrees below normal expected
  through the work week. Highs will be in the 50s through that
  period. Weekend highs will increase slightly into the 60s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 613 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 146 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Rain chances will continue over the next few days, albeit with much
briefer duration and much lower rainfall totals than the recently
departed system. This afternoon, a shortwave aloft will develop some
showers over southwestern South Dakota, potentially clipping parts
of Stanley, Jones, and Lyman counties. Developing showers may need
to do a little bit of work on saturating the near-surface layer, but
will still likely be able to reach the surface this afternoon. Rain
rates are expected to be light, and only a few hundredths of an inch
are expected. Latest high-resolution ensembles give roughly a 0-20%
chance to see a tenth of an inch through this afternoon over that
Stanley/Jones/Lyman area. Areas to the north and east of the
Missouri River are not expected to see precipitation today, with the
possible exception of far eastern South Dakota seeing an isolated
light shower in the evening.

A longwave trough will remain over the central CONUS for the next
few days, keeping temperatures below normal through Thursday. 850mb
temperatures near freezing are between the 10th and 25th percentile
for this time of year, translating to highs in the 50s through
Thursday. Strong winds aloft in the entrance region of the trough
will create rain chances again both Wednesday and Thursday afternoon
and evening. Both setups will be fairly similar: Dry lower-levels, a
saturated layer extending between roughly the 750mb-600mb layer, and
poor lapse rates above the saturated layer. The latter will, despite
some marginal MUCAPE (