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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD

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770
FXUS63 KABR 232310 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
610 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated smoke from Canadian and western wildfires will continue
  to result in a milky sky with filtered sunshine. Some of this
  smoke may near the surface today become surface based this
  evening and again Wednesday.

- Temperatures in the 90s (especially James River westward) enter
  the region as early as Wednesday and persist through the weekend
  and possibly into early next week. There is a 25 to 50% chance for
  highs along and west of the Missouri River to reach 100 degrees
  on Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 603 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 332 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible over
portions of eastern South Dakota into this evening, mainly across
the Prairie Coteau region with the assistance of a bit of lift
thanks to the terrain. The first showers popped up around 20Z just
southeast of Clear Lake/Brandt. These showers and weak thunderstorms
should slowly diminish in coverage with the loss of daytime heating.

Our hazy/milky sky will continue as elevated smoke moves in from
Canadian and western U.S. wildfires. The coverage of this smoke
extends west through MT/WY and southern ID/eastern OR. While smoke
nearing the surface remains difficult to forecast, the HRRR
continues to indicate the higher potential of surface smoke
currently over the area pushing mainly west of the MO River after
midnight before pushing across much of the area again Wednesday
afternoon. As a result, and with visibility down to around 5-8SM
over much of ND, have been able to add haze to our forecast where
the thicker smoke is forecast mainly during the daytime/evening
hours before pushing east.

Very warm air will be the main concern over the next several days as
an upper level ridge of high pressure shifts across the Northern
Plains. After lows in the mid 60s, temperatures will rise into the
80s to mid 90s Wednesday afternoon. The highest temperatures will
remain over central South Dakota. The 500mb high over the
southwestern U.S. extends a ridge through MT and Saskatchewan, with
the Dakotas and MN in north to northwesterly flow. The ridge will
push east over western SD and ND through much of central Canada
Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 332 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

The long term portion of the forecast will feature above average
temperatures with periods of showers and thunderstorms over the
weekend.

The period begins on Thursday with an upper level ridge over the
Northern Plains with warm southerly flow. High temperatures should
warm into the mid 80s, over eastern SD, while areas along and west
of the Missouri river climbs into the upper 90s to around 100
degrees. The probability of seeing 100 degrees off the NBM is 15 to
40% for the Missouri valley and points west. The ridge shifts east
some on Friday, with southerly flow remaining over the CWA. 700 mb
temps warm slightly, reaching +13C. The probability of 100 degrees
spreads east some, with the James River valley seeing a 20 to 30%
chance. An upper level trough crossing southern Canada will bring
slightly cooler temps on Saturday, along with a 20-40% chance for
pcpn Friday night. North central SD will have the best potential of
seeing pcpn.

A slowly moving surface low pressure system and upper level trough
will cross the region over the weekend with additional chances for
pcpn. Rainfall chances are best, 20-45%, Saturday night, with
slightly lower potential Sunday night. Temperatures remain warm with
highs in the 80s and 90s for the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 603 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Mainly VFR/MVFR conditions (visby) are forecast over the next 24
hours. The main concern will be near surface smoke. We will also
continue to monitor convection potential (mainly KATY) through
late this evening.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...Dorn

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Aberdeen, SD (ABR) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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