809
FXUS63 KABR 131113 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
513 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures 20-30 degrees above normal will continue through
  the weekend. Parts of eastern South Dakota and western
  Minnesota may flirt with record highs.

- Precipitation chances (40-60%) return Tuesday. Rain is expected
  initially, transitioning to snow by Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 510 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

More of the same expected as the broad upper-level ridge over the
western CONUS remains in place. Therefore, a warm, dry airmass will
remain in place, bringing above normal temperatures through the
weekend.  Highs in the 50s are 20-30 degrees above normal, and
eastern South Dakota into western Minnesota in particular may flirt
with daily record highs. The only other forecast concern in the near-
term is the potential for some fog development early this morning.
Hi-resolution models are showing varying degrees of visibility
reductions, but are fairly consistent on two main areas within the
combination of moister air and light winds seeing some fog
development. Namely, over western Minnesota there is a decent degree
of confidence in seeing visibility reductions below 1 mile. Along
the James River also shows a decent signal, although confidence in
dense fog is a bit lower.

Focus shifts to an upcoming mid-week system, as the upper-level
ridge is finally pushed out by a longwave trough, developing a low
pressure system into the Northern Plains. At this time, indications
are that precipitation development will happen on the north side of
the low, and that precipitation type will be highly dependent on
temperature. At the moment, soundings allow for some confidence in
the formation of ice aloft through the multi-day event. Temperatures
at the surface look to be initially warm enough to produce rain for
the first part of the event, but as temperatures cool down (giving
highs much closer to normal by the middle into the end of the week),
expect a transition to snow). Latest ensemble guidance puts the 90th
percentile (a proxy for a reasonable "worst case" scenario) QPF
between 0.75"-1" accumulating through Thursday. Ensemble medians sit
closer to 0.25"-0.5". The heaviest precipitation is expected with
the initial surge of the low into the area, occurring Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Based on temperature probabilities and model
soundings, the current thought is that a good chunk if not the
majority of the QPF will fall as rain. Therefore, not expecting a
major snowstorm at this time with this system. However as stated
above, temperature will play a major factor here, and there is still
plenty of time for things to change and become further refined.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 510 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Other than some short-lived patchy morning fog potential, VFR
conditions are forecast at all four terminals throughout the TAF
valid period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...10