640
FXUS63 KABR 170618
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
118 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain, snow or a rain/snow mix will be possible this morning
with little in the way of accumulations expected for most areas.
Portions of north central SD have a 50-70% chance for seeing a
quarter of an inch of precipitation.

- The cooler than normal pattern will spill over into the beginning
of the weekend before temperatures gradually warm back above normal
through the first half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 117 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

As of 1 AM CDT, the cold front has made its way through most of the
forecast area leaving us with much colder air and northwesterly
winds. Some snow is moving into north central SD and this will
continue to move east through the morning hours, more details next.
Winds are still gusting to 35 to 40 mph mainly west of the James
River. These winds are expected to continue through the remaining
overnight hours through the day Friday, and also spread east to
cover the forecast area.

Most of the CAMs are showing a band with a tight gradient of precip
oriented southwest to northeast and moving generally west to east
across the area through the morning hours. Temperatures across north
central SD are the coldest of the CWA right now so it is snowing
there but this could change over to rain/snow mix across the north
and rain south of US Hwy 12 if temperatures don`t cool more as the
precip moves farther east. Some light accumulation of snow is
expected but will melt quickly. There is also a chance for some
light ice accumulation (a glaze at most) around the northern portion
of the Prairie Coteau, but again, this will melt quickly. There is a
50-70% chance that far north central SD will get more than a quarter
inch of precipitation.

The cold front is already well past us by sunrise this morning
leaving behind air that is about 20 degrees colder than 24 hours ago
at 850 mb. This colder air looks to stick around for a couple days
before warming up a bit Sunday and then quite a bit Monday with a
big shot of WAA. This is forecast to leave us with 850 mb temps in
the mid teens to low 20s (warmest across south central SD).
Thursday, a low moves across the Dakotas, but models are not in good
agreement on placement. At the moment, the GFS and ECMWF have the
low moving across ND and into Canada Thursday afternoon through
Friday morning. This looks to bring a chance for some precipitation
to the area in the form of widespread rain. Since this is at the
very end of the forecast, expect changes.

Following today`s precipitation we move into a dry spell. This will
help kick of some days of elevated grassland fire danger. The first
being Saturday as RH values dip below 30% most of the forecast area
and 25% or less south of US Hwy 14. Wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph are
expected to return Saturday which will help increase that grassland
fire danger. Sunday, while temperatures increase, winds are expected
to be much calmer so grassland fire danger isn`t as high. Stronger
winds return Monday and RH values drop off so elevated grassland
fire danger returns and looks to remain through the rest of the dry
spell.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 117 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

MVFR CIGs (perhaps IFR at times) will move east across the region
during the morning hours, with conditions improving to VFR later in
the day Friday. An area of RA/SN will also be moving east into
central SD (KMBG/KPIR) early this morning, eventually making its way
into northeast SD. MVFR VSBY possible at times in areas of
precipitation.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...TMT