945
FXUS63 KABR 251133 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
533 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow showers and flurries are expected to exit this morning.
Little to no additional accumulation is expected.

- Bitter cold will continue through Monday morning. Highs will be in
the single digits below to single digits above zero, with lows
ranging from -5 to -15. The coldest air will be over far northern
and northeastern South Dakota into west central Minnesota. A Cold
Weather Advisory is in effect tonight for portions of the area east
of the Missouri River for wind chills of -25 to -35.

- Temperatures briefly return to near normal values Monday
afternoon, with highs in the teens east to mid 30s south central.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 343 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Scattered flurries continue across the area early this morning with
some likely measurable light snow near Mobridge and between Mobridge
and Aberdeen. This snow is expected to exit to the south and east
this morning as a 1040s high builds in from the northwest. The
clouds continue to complicate the temperature forecast in the
meantime, however. Expect a drop in hourly temps as the swath of
clouds clears, but highs for the day may be too low given current
readings just above and below zero. The reinforcing caa in the upper
trough may not reach the cwa in time to save the forecast and could
see adjusting Ts accordingly with the expectation that they will
fall this morning.

The upper trough slides southeast tonight leaving westerly flow and
waa at 850mb for Monday morning. Dry conditions are forecast after
this morning and temps are expected to climb into the teens across
the east and into the mid 30s in south central SD for Monday. Before
that waa spreads into the cwa, though, issued a Cold Weather
Advisory for tonight with winds around 8 to 15 mph causing wind
chills of -25 to -35 east of the Missouri River. Some locations near
the Leola Hills may see advisory criteria this afternoon before the
0z start time with the northwest winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 343 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Monday night starts the long term when a cold front makes its way
north to south across the region. This cold front is expected to be
south and out of our area by Tuesday morning. In the upper levels,
we remain in a northwesterly flow pattern with a ridge off to our
west over ID. This ridge will gradually be displaced as a low
pressure system makes landfall in the PacNW. However, the ridge gets
deformed by this low which looks to slide down the eastern side of
the Rockies. Little impact is expected from this low in our forecast
area. There does look to be some impact from a seriously tilted
trough spreading back west from a low over New England Thursday into
Friday. This looks to bring some 15-20% chances of light snow to the
region. The chance of more than an inch of snowfall is between 15
and 20%. Another round of light snow will be possible Saturday, but
not much accumulation is expected. Winds are not expected to be
anything out of the ordinary during the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 531 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

A mix of VFR and MVFR cigs with some flurries mixed in early this
morning will improve by 17z at all sites. Then VFR conditions are
expected for the remainder of the period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Monday
     for SDZ005>008-010-011-017>023-036-037.

MN...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Monday
     for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...20