807
FXUS63 KABR 232309 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
609 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Although the Marginal Risk remains in place this evening,
  current trends place any severe storms in Minnesota.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 606 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

The forecast mainly remains on track this evening. No major
changes are planned.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

As of about 12:30 PM CDT, temperatures are in the mid to upper
70s with winds generally out of the northwest at about 10 mph
with gusts of 15-20 mph. Showers and thunderstorms have moved
out of the area for the moment.

Another round of storms is possible this afternoon mainly around and
east of the James River. Confidence is low that these storms will
actually develop given the placement of an incoming cold front, but
there are some isolated showers shown by the CAMs. There is a
marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) along and east of the James River.
Main threats with any storms that do become severe are 1 inch hail
and wind gusts of 60 mph, but a tornado or two is not out of the
question. Lapse rates still don`t look great but bulk shear and
instability look favorable. It really will depend on forcing from
the cold front. If the the cold front moves in faster then we
might get more storms. Overall, the better environment looks to
be to our east in western MN. There is a chance for some showers
and storms Friday, but at the moment, no severe weather is
expected. Saturday however, there is a 15% area on the SPC
outlook over areas of central SD north of US Hwy 14 and west of
US Hwy 281. Will keep an eye on this as we get closer to the
weekend.

Temperatures are still in that around to slightly below average
range, but will warm up slightly towards the end of the period.
Winds still look to gust between 35 and 45 mph on Saturday with the
incoming low pressure system. Will keep an eye on this over the next
few days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 606 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected to persist through Wednesday
afternoon.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...20
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...20