640
FXUS63 KABR 161755 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1255 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures today about 15 to 30 degrees above normal. Winds
  shifting from south to southwest at 25 to 35 mph and afternoon
  humidity down to 15 to 30%. Red Flag warning in effect for
  most of the area late morning through late afternoon.
  High/Very High Grassland Fire Danger as well.

- A cold front will move through late today, with a wind shift
  to north or northwest and increase to 35 to 40 mph.
  Temperatures dropping some 40 to 50 degrees off daytime highs.

- Little moisture associated with this system. About a 50/50
  chance for 0.25" in north central South Dakota, with maybe
  just a few hundredths in northeast South Dakota.

- Cool dry pattern for the weekend. Milder but still dry for the
  first half of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 18Z TAFS.

UPDATE Issued at 1022 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Continuing to monitor increasing southerly winds this morning.
Gusty south to southwest winds will remain a staple in the
forecast through late this afternoon. Also, dew point
temperatures remain in the upper 30s to mid 40s as of mid morning,
but anticipate these will fall a bit going through the afternoon
leading to critical RH values and those Red Flag Warning conditions
developing. Forecasted high temperatures still look reasonable
with values reaching the 70s-80s this afternoon. Don`t anticipate
any significant changes to the forecast for the remainder of
today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Surface dewpoints are currently in the 30s with a few upper 20s
smattered across the central South Dakota. In the east, its closer
to widespread mid/upper 30s. These values won`t improve with daytime
heating and the extremely favorable mixing environment today.

NBM temperatures are still around the 10th percentile, and 3 to 7F
below the 50th percentile. Bumped up temperatures a few degrees
higher than the NBM because of the southwest component however the
forecast highs are still down around the 25th percentile in
comparison.

NAM BUFKIT profiles continue to indicate mid level instability with
inverted V soundings, above the 0C level. Again, this COULD mean we
might see some elevated dry convection related erratic winds. This
can sometimes show up in CAM wind fields which, not to be taken
literally at the times and locations, but is merely added proof
that convective winds are possible.  FV3/ARW NAMNest/DNG all show
some random blips of erraticness in the wind fields from 23 to
02Z. CAMS do have some low dBZ that may represent this as well.

At the end of March, we also had an area significantly impacted by
blowing dust. Granted, overall winds today will fall short of that
event, however we do have a localized area that tends to get higher
winds (similar to a Sisseton hills downslope) off a bend in the
Missouri Coteau near Ree Heights. While we did see around an
inch of moisture in early April, its been a week with mild
temperatures since. Dust model is giving some indication that
there could be issues. Added mention of dust in the favored
portion of central South Dakota.

Winds on the backside of the cold front still topping out in NAM/GFS
BUFKIT mixed tool around low/mid 30kt range. Overall chances for
moisture continue to shift north and west. NBM probability of 0.25
inches is a little less than 50/50 over north central South Dakota,
and 25% for areas west of Aberdeen/Pierre. Not even a 50/50 chance
of measuring at Watertown. Needless to say this system doesn`t look
to bring appreciable moisture to the region, outside some local
relief.

Cool snap last through the weekend, with another surge of mild air
for the start of next week. With the departing trough and
approaching upper low parking off the California coast, that
creates a broad ridge over the Rockies and a northwest flow
regime for us. Thats typically a low confidence regime for our
region especially in the realm of days 5-6-7 especially since
this time of year clipper systems usually result in less
moisture and dramatic changes in temperatures. Case in point the
NBM 25th 75th percentile range in high temperatures is 6-10
degrees Monday, 8-13 degrees Tuesday and 10 to 14F for
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will continue to persist at all terminals the rest
of today into tonight. MVFR CIGs associated with light rain or
light snow will be possible at KPIR/KMBG as early as mid to late
evening tonight but will become more probable after midnight.
KABR/KATY will see MVFR CIGs closer to 12Z Friday. IFR CIGs may be
possible at times during the duration of the morning hours,
depending on the nature of the shower coverage. MVFR VSBYs could
also be possible depending on shower intensity. VFR conditions
will be possible once again, but not until late in this TAF cycle
and only at KABR/KPIR/KMBG with KATY hanging on to MVFR CIGs
through this forecast period.

Gusty southwest winds between 25-35 knots will be possible through
this afternoon. A switch in wind direction to the west and
northwest is expected at KPIR/KMBG by early this evening and will
remain gusty through the end of the period. KABR/KATY will see
that switch to the north to northwest after midnight into the
early morning hours on Friday. KATY will also have the possibility
of low level wind shear by mid evening tonight as a strong low
level jet punches into east central SD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for
     SDZ005>008-010-011-016>023-033>037-045-048-051.

MN...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Vipond
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...Vipond