445
FXUS63 KABR 121042
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
442 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog is possible this morning over areas west of the
Missouri River. Visibilities will stay above 1 mile.

- Colder temperatures arriving today through Saturday. Highs will be
in the 30s and 40s today and Friday, with lows in the upper teens to
upper 20s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1229 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Another lower stratus cloud deck is moving over northeastern and
central SD this morning. This cloud deck will stay aloft in most
areas and will not affect visibility. However, once the clouds move
over areas west of the Missouri River, they could cause some patchy
fog to develop and lower the visibilities during the morning.
Visibilities less than 1 mile are not expected. The clouds will
start to disappear during the morning over northeastern SD and
during the afternoon over central SD. As high pressure parks itself
over northeastern SD, northerly flow aloft will continue to help to
move cooler temperatures, but still around normal for this time of
the year, in through Saturday. The coolest temperatures are expected
today and Friday, with highs in the mid 30s to low 40s.
Additionally, lows tonight and Friday night will drop down into the
upper teens to upper 20s.

As the high pressure sits over northeastern SD and MN, lower
pressure will develop over the Rockies. This low pressure and the
high will start to create a tighter pressure gradient over western
and central SD. This tight pressure gradient will help to create
stronger winds aloft that will push some of those winds to the
surface over central SD. As the high pressure moves east Saturday
and Sunday, the pressure gradient will spread over northeastern SD.
While this will spread some of the stronger winds over portions of
northeastern SD, the strongest winds will stay over central SD and
areas west of the Missouri River. The ensembles have a 30-60% chance
for winds to be greater than 40 mph Saturday afternoon west of the
Missouri River. Minimum relative humidity values look to be greater
than 50% Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, which is helping to taper the
fire weather concerns at the moment. These winds and relative
humidity values will need to be watched in upcoming model runs to
see if they will cause an increase in the fire weather concern.

As the higher pressure moves out, warmer temperatures will slowly
start to move back in Sunday and into the work week. The current
model runs are showing the high pressure moving over MN, WI, and IL,
which will cause the flow over SD to be from the southwest. This
southwest flow will be moving the warmer temperatures in and causing
slightly above average temperatures on Sunday and temperatures to be
at least 10 degrees warmer than normal during the beginning of the
work week. The models have been delaying the arrival of the warm air
over the past few day, so an eye will need to be kept on the models
to see if they continue to push its arrival even later.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 442 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR to MVFR ceilings and visibility will start the day. An area
of MVFR ceilings is over PIR/MBG, with another batch set up over
portions of northeastern SD that will bring at least temporary
MVFR ceilings to ABR/ATY through 13Z. We do expect clouds to
fill in 15-18Z before diminishing in coverage again for this
afternoon with VFR conditions returning.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...06