836
FXUS63 KABR 240704
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
204 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will gradually warm during the next couple days.
Daytime highs will increase from the from the 50s to low 60s today
to the 60s to mid-70s on Wednesday. Temperatures return closer to
seasonal for the end of the work week.

- Strong northerly winds return Thursday behind a cold front. Gusts
are expected to peak at 30 to 45 miles per hour. The strong winds
will also cause elevated fire weather concerns Thursday afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 156 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Monitoring a front dropping into the forecast area this morning,
which will slowly pass through the area through this afternoon. Not
expecting strong cold air advection behind this front, and 850mb
temperatures will actually increase this afternoon as the upper-
level ridge over the western CONUS progresses eastward. Therefore,
the warming trend continues today, with highs in the 50s to low 60s
expected. The forecast area will continue warming Wednesday with the
continued progression of the ridge and associated height rises.
Highs in the 70s across the board that day will be well above
average, but are still about 5-10 degrees shy of daily record highs.

The upper-level ridge in place will collapse into zonal flow
Wednesday and Thursday, with a strong upper-level jet streak
expected to set up over the area. As a result, there will be chances
for precipitation development along a cold front that passes through
Wednesday night into Thursday. Model soundings indicate rain is the
most likely precipitation type, but with overnight lows near
freezing along the North Dakota/South Dakota border, freezing rain
and even snow can`t be ruled out as a possible precipitation type
just yet. Overall liquid equivalent precip totals still appear
minimal, with the latest ensemble means giving up to a tenth of an
inch at most. The means are fairly high-biased however, and the
probability for seeing a hundredth of an inch or more is set up in a
gradient across the Aberdeen CWA, ranging from 50% in the north to
10% over central South Dakota. This signature is fairly consistent
with previous forecast cycles.

The main forecast concern will be the post-frontal winds and wind
gusts moving into the area Thursday. Northerly winds will provide
multiple rounds of strong cold air advection into the region coming
early Thursday morning and again Thursday afternoon. As a result,
temperatures Thursday are expected to be non-diurnal and will drop
to near-normal for late March. Under northerly cold air advection
regimes, the NBM has a tendency to under-forecast wind speeds, so
hedging a bit further toward the 90th percentile with this latest
forecast. Probability to reach Wind Advisory criteria (gusts of 45
miles per hour) remains at about 10-20 percent across the board, but
again those numbers are likely underdone and a Wind Advisory may be
necessary for this event. At the moment it looks like the area will
fall short of High Wind Warning criteria (58 miles per hour), with
probabilities currently sitting at 0%. Still, with such strong cold
air advection nothing can be quite ruled out at this point, and
trends will continue to be monitored closely moving forward. No
headlines have been issued with this forecast package. These winds
will also trigger some elevated fire weather concerns, mainly over
central South Dakota where the Grassland Fire Danger Index reaches
the Very High category. The saving grace will be that afternoon
humidity remains in the 35 to 45 percent range, keeping the area out
of Red Flag Warning criteria.

Zonal flow aloft will transition to an upper-level ridge once again
residing over the western CONUS. This will allow for a warm, dry
airmass to return to the Northern Plains, bringing above normal
temperatures and minimal chances for precip through the weekend.
Expect highs roughly 10-15 degrees above normal through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday evening. A cold front
is very slowly moving southeast into the forecast area (already
through the KMBG terminal). Light southerly winds will continue to
switch around to a northeast and eventually east direction as the
boundary continues to slowly move through the region into this
morning before stalling out across southern/southeastern South
Dakota this afternoon. As return flow develops late in the day
Tuesday/Tuesday night, this boundary is expected to dissipate as
south-southeasterly flow develops.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...10