526
FXUS63 KABR 292302
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
602 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures and dry conditions continue Monday.

- Next system for Monday night/Tuesday expected to be little more
than a frontal passage and an isolated light shower or two.
Widespread moisture unlikely.

- Cooler Tuesday with highs in the 40s. Northwest winds gusting 30
to 45 mph in the morning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 602 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

The ongoing forecast remains on track with few changes anticipated.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Plenty of forecast challenges emerging over the course of this week,
though most will have minimal impact.

Above average temperatures and dry conditions persist into Monday as
weak sfc low pressure and a warm front stretch back along the Hwy
212 corridor. The initial, weak low/trough sinks southeast by 21z as
another stronger low moves off the Rockies. Other than some breezy
(gusts 20 to 30 mph) east winds and reinforcing the warmer temps,
the first low won`t do much. The second low slides across southern
SD Monday night as an upper trough sinks into North Dakota. Behind
the sfc low, increased north to northwest winds with a nudge to NBM
90th to account for the strong caa. H85 temps drop from the upper
teens Celsius to the negative single digits by Tuesday morning.
Gusts of 35 to 45 mph are expected through Tuesday morning. Tried to
capture more of the timing with ConsShort. Although NBM has little
in the way of QPF (splotches north of Hwy 12), NBM pops are more
diffuse. So, also tried to convey a more distinct pop/no pop line
given the dry mid levels on either side of the front.

Temperatures return to near to slightly below normal behind Monday
night`s cold front for the remainder of the week. NBM is too wet the
rest of the week with two subsequent systems, as well, in part due
to global model resolution bleeding into the ensemble. The first
wave pings off a 700 mb low on Wednesday. With easterly sfc flow,
mid level moisture will increase, but best moisture pooling is
focused around the Missouri River west. Eastern SD will need to
saturate beyond the sfc high stretching down from Canada.

More dependent on track of the low, chances for widespread precip
increase Friday as a stacked low moves into the Dakotas. Provided SD
isn`t dry slotted, this low could bring wetting rains and even some
snow overnight.

X

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 602 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will continue over the next 24 hours, with winds
gusting less than 20kts.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...06