067
FXUS63 KABR 041133
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
533 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light precipitation, in the form of flurries or light
freezing drizzle will remain possible through the early morning
hours. Little to no accumulation is expected.

- Above normal temperatures (5 to 25 degrees) Wednesday through at
Monday of next week. The warmest air will be overhead Thursday and
then again Monday, with highs in the 40s (northeast/north central
SD/western MN) to near 60 (central SD).

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 425 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

The latest surface weather map shows our weak surface through over
south central SD into southwestern MN. Light precipitation, mainly
in the form of snow or flurries, but with pockets of freezing
drizzle, remain over far eastern to southeastern SD. Little to no
additional accumulation is expected. Precipitation chances will
continue to diminish early this morning as the weak surface low
exits across IA. High pressure will be directly overhead by 18Z,
with relatively light winds during the daytime hours today.

Our stratus deck of low to mid clouds remains across our area and
extends through ND and into central Canada. Forecast models may be
too quick to mix out and diminish some of these clouds. As a result,
we`ve increased the cloud cover forecast through this evening. We`ll
be watching for the Canadian low organizing over northern Alberta
this morning to slide across Ontario tonight, pushing a warm front
across the Dakotas into western MN.

A shallow cool and moist layer will inhibit better mixing Thursday.
The NAM, as is typically the case, is showing a bit more low level
moisture. Increased mixing would not only result in higher
temperatures, but allow for stronger winds in excess of 35kts to
push to the surface. At this point we have wind gusts maxing out
around 25kts over central SD Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will
top out 20-25 degrees above normal. 40s will be common for highs,
with 50s over much of central South Dakota. Fire weather concerns
will creep back into the forecast Thursday over portions of south
central SD (mainly south and west of Pierre). High Grassland Fire
Danger Index Values are expected over Jones County. This is where
temperatures will rise into the low 60s, relative humidity values
will fall into the 40 percent range, and winds will be out of the
west-northwest with gusts of around 25kts in the afternoon.
Elsewhere, lingering snow on the ground, or higher relative humidity
values will limit fire weather concerns.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 425 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

A northwest flow regime is in place for the late in the work week
and weekend. A mild, modified Pacific airmass is in place initially
Thursday night/Friday morning before a cold front pushes through by
mid-day Friday.  Cold advection is briefly strong but short lived,
with the Arctic front stalled across the area late Friday before it
shifts back east as a warm front.  A weak clipper/northwest flow
wave follows, with a subtle ripple in the 850mb temperature
gradient. That is followed by another push of mild air aloft for
Sunday/Monday. 850mb temperatures Monday are up around 10-11C in the
GFS/Canadian, but about 5 degrees cooler in the EC. Thereafter
models diverge in whats going on with the low level airmass.

Generally speaking all this means temperatures back above average.
NBM 25th-75th still has a significant range (about 10F), especially
for the weekend/next week. While the expectation is for frontal
clearing with Fridays frontal system, NBM is rather cloudy
thereafter. And given how warm it is aloft, any melting/modification
of the snow pack would trap quite a bit of moisture in the boundary
layer, so this would not be unexpected.

As for precipitation, overall not much expected from the northwest
flow regime. There was a system out in the middle of next week in
yesterdays deterministic guidance, however they have shifted away
from a Colorado low/TROWAL type system, to something that would be
more representative of a split flow regime. This change, which is
also not unexpected as we are talking about the 180+ hour timeframe
yesterday and still at the edge of what deterministic guidance
should be used for with any degree of reliability now, means while
that will we still could see moisture, its unlikely we`ll see any
impactful amounts. That said, there is a period where the NBM
precipitation type is freezing rain Tuesday night. While possible,
NBM forecast highs in the 30s to 40s with moisture around seems
improbable that near surface and ground temperatures at night would
manage to drop below freezing after a weeks worth of milder
temperatures. Freezing rain also goes against the NBM`s own precip
type probabilities, with rain/snow the more likely outcomes for
KABR/KATY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 533 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

A MVFR to IFR stratus deck remains entrenched across ND and much
of SD, extending up through central Canada. High pressure will be
overhead at 18Z, with northerly winds switching out of the west
during the late morning to early afternoon hours but remaining
light. There is some concern that the stratus will remain longer
than originally forecast, so the MVFR to IFR ceilings may linger
through much of the overnight hours. At this point we have slow
clearing with VFR conditions returning to PIR/MBG by 23-01Z and
ABR by 04Z Thursday. Expect low level wind sheer overnight at all
locations as winds just above the surface increase by 01-04Z to
continue overnight with gusts 40-50kts out of the northwest.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...06