597
FXUS63 KABR 071808
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
108 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Tonight, there is an Enhanced Risk, level 3/5, for scattered to
numerous severe storms over the western half of Corson County. There
is a Slight Risk, level 2/5, for scattered severe storms along and
west of a line from Eureka to Murdo. Main threats include large
hail, one to two inches in diameter, and wind gusts of 70+ mph. A
tornado or two cannot be ruled out within the Enhanced Risk.

- Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night, there is an Enhanced Risk
(3 of 5) for severe storms north of Hwy 12 from McLaughlin to
Frederick. There is a Slight Risk (2 of 5) everywhere else. All
hazards are possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 105 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

A wind advisory remains in effect for portions of north central SD
this afternoon. With only a 12 mb pressure gradient over the state
and no cold air advection, the advisory is marginal at best with the
usual channeled or elevated spots seeing occasional gusts over 45
mph.

A weak sfc low/cold front will move east across SD late tonight
through Monday morning. The best shortwave energy/jet streak has
slowed its eastward progress through SD on the latest model runs,
robbing the sfc front of some of its potential energy. Although the
outlooks from SPC haven`t changed markedly in the latest updates,
the highest potential for storms appears to hardly move out of
northwest SD into central SD until between 3z and 6z. And, much of
that activity may stay centered over south central ND. Anything that
trails into north central SD overnight, though, could still produce
wind gusts to 70 mph and/or some large hail around an inch.

The sfc low weakens and dissipates Monday morning over eastern SD.
This timing will leave areas east of the Coteau in southerly flow
most of Monday. The higher dewpoints and temperatures on the
southerly flow could lead to some thunderstorm development in the
afternoon. There is a marginal risk for the area, accordingly,
though spatial extent for storms differs depending on the model and
where they weaken that front. Lowered high temps for Monday west of
the front by blending in 50% ConsShort with the NBM. The hi-res are
more progressive with the cooler temps than the NBM.

Tuesday warms back up with a return of southeast flow and more
humidity. Areas south of Hwy 14 could approach "feels-like" temps of
around 100 degrees. The upper trough that teases the region tonight
will move a touch farther east Tuesday. Shortwave energy will eject
into SD on the eastern edge of the trough by 21z and the jet will
increase. Sfc low pressure moves through ND Tuesday evening from
west to east with a trailing cold front. There is an Enhanced Risk
(3 out of 5) for Tuesday across portions of north central SD where
all hazards will be in play.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 105 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through this evening. MVFR/IFR cigs
move in tonight with a sfc low that will progress eastward
through early Monday morning. Any thunderstorms that develop
this evening could cause MVFR cigs/vsby around KMBG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for
     SDZ003>005-009-010-015.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20