294
FXUS63 KABR 300620
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
120 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog may develop early this morning. The main areas of
  concern will be over parts of north central South Dakota and
  the eastern side of the Sisseton Hills. Visibility may drop to
  a mile or less at times.

- Rain showers move over the forecast area Friday evening into
  Saturday morning. There is a 30 to 50 percent chance to see a
  tenth of an inch of rain mainly east of the James River and
  south of Hwy 212.

- More widespread, heavier rainfall is expected Sunday night
  through Tuesday as a low pressure center moves into the Pains.
  While there is low confidence in timing and amounts at this
  time, the chance to see an inch of rain ranges from 50 to 75
  percent along and east of the Missouri River.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 119 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

As of 1 AM CDT, temperatures across the region are in the upper 30s
to low 40s with winds out of the northeast to southeast at generally
less than 10 mph. There is potential for fog this morning across
north central SD and the eastern side of the Sisseton Hills but
winds are a bit high and there isn`t much moisture sitting around.
If fog does form, it should burn off by mid morning. The rest of the
day is expected to be cloudy, except for some afternoon clearing
north of Hwy 12 and east of US 281. Highs today will be in the 50s.

The main story for the forecast will be our precipitation chances.
The first will be Friday night into Saturday and the second, more
widespread and wet event starting Monday. A low pressure system will
sit just off the lee side of the Rockies Friday with a front moving
up from the south and kicking off some light showers through the day
Saturday. Total accumulations of a couple hundredths are expected. A
low pressure system will move in from the west Monday, exiting the
region Tuesday. We could continue to see some wrap around moisture
through Wednesday morning. PWAT values Monday are generally between
1 and 1.25 inches across the forecast area, in the 99th or above
NAEFS percentile. These PWAT values start to decrease towards 0.5
inches through the day Tuesday. The potential for more than an inch
of precipitation from Monday morning through Wednesday morning is 50
to 75% along and east of the Missouri River. The chance for more
than 2 inches during the same time frame is 40 to 50% in the
northern portion of the James Valley and along the I-29 corridor.

Temperatures for the first half of the forecast will be 10 to 15
degrees above average before colder air moves in behind the low and
drops temps down to around average. Winds the next few days will
gust around 25 mph during the afternoon hours. Monday, with the
incoming low, winds will increase to 35-40 mph across most of the
forecast area, perhaps reaching 45 mph or higher across central SD.
Fog will also be possible after the rain Saturday, however, cloud
cover may keep this from materializing.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through this afternoon. This
evening, MVFR stratus moves in to all taf sites.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...20