733
FXUS63 KABR 021749 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1249 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is an Enhanced (3 of 5) to Slight Risk (2 of 5) for severe
weather this afternoon through tonight over much of the region. Main
hazards are 1 to 2 inches in diameter hail and wind gusts 60-75 mph.
Additionally, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

- There is a Slight Risk (2 of 5) for severe weather Friday
afternoon through Saturday morning over much of the region. Main
hazards are 1 to 2 inches in diameter hail and wind gusts 60-75 mph.

- Western U.S. and Canadian wildfire smoke (aloft) will remain over
parts of the region through Friday. Higher concentrations of near
surface smoke will be possible across parts of central SD from about
midday today into the evening, but will be highly variable
when/where thunderstorms are expected.

- Near to above normal temperatures are expected throughout the
seven day forecast, with the warmest readings, possibly as much as
10 degrees above normal, running up into the low 90s between late
this week through the middle of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 18Z TAFS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 136 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Warm, moist air will be moving into SD today. This will help
temperatures to be slightly above normal, with highs in the upper
80s to low 90s. While there will be moisture moving in, the
dewpoints will stay in the 60s and will keep the heat index values
near the max temperatures, in the low to mid 90s. The warmer
temperatures will help increase instability over central and
northeastern SD, with models showing MLCAPE values in between 2000-
4000 J/kg. Storms could start to develop as a frontal boundary
starts to move in again over SD this afternoon through the evening
into an area of higher instability and moisture. Models are showing
two different scenarios that could happen with the storms.

For scenario 1: A pocket of drier air moves over central SD during
the afternoon. This pocket will cause a break in the storms as they
develop, with one area over ND/northern SD and another area of
storms developing over southern SD during the afternoon. Then
another round of storms could develop and move in behind the first
round, as the dry pocket of air moves out during the evening into
the overnight hours. Scenario 2: The pocket of drier air does not
develop over central SD. This would then allow the storms to develop
to the northwest/west of central SD and then move east/southeast as
a singular line of storms through the afternoon and evening. For
whatever scenario that does occur, the hazards will be similar.
There is an enhanced (level 3 of 5) to slight (level 2 of 5) risk
for severe storms to occur. The more discrete storms that develop at
the start will have the main threats of large hail up to 2 inches in
diameter and strong winds up to 60 mph. Additionally, the
development of a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. As the storms
continue on over northeastern SD, they will become more of a line
with the primary threat for winds of 60-75 mph and hail up to 1
inch. Additionally, the spin-up of a tornado along the line of
storms cannot be ruled out.

Today isn`t the only day with severe weather forecast to occur, as
there are multiple upper-level shortwaves moving over SD through the
weekend which will provide support to the forcing and lift for storm
development. Friday could see chances for scattered storms and
showers to start developing and moving over central and northeastern
SD during the afternoon into the overnight hours and into Saturday
morning. The start time and how these storms develop will really
depend on how today`s storms go. Some models have today`s storms
pushing out a lot of the instability and moisture from SD, leaving
slightly cooler temperatures Friday and Saturday. This would then
push storm development later as it would take longer for instability
to regroup. Other models keep the environment nearly similar to
today`s, which would allow storms to develop a bit earlier. There is
a slight risk (level 2 of 5) over much of central and northeastern
SD for severe storms Friday. The primary hazards will be hail of 1
to 2 inches in diameter and winds of up to 60-70 mph. Another round
of scattered storms will be possible Saturday, from lingering storms
left from the overnight convection and another wave moving through
during the afternoon and evening. These storms again have the
ability to become severe.

Wildfire smoke continues to move in over SD today and Friday, and
likely into the weekend as upper-level flow continues to push it in.
The smoke continues to stay aloft, though there are some signs a
little bit of it could make it to the surface over areas west of the
Missouri River. However, this will all depend on how and where
storms develop. More smoke will likely continue to move in aloft
through the weekend. Temperatures will cool slightly behind today`s
storms, with Friday and Saturday having highs in the low to upper
80s. Sunday and Monday then look to warm slightly as a weak upper-
level ridge looks to move over SD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Main concerns for all terminals will be convection and potential
for severe wind gusts and severe hail through the remainder of
today into tonight. VFR conditions can be expected at all
terminals with temporary reduced cigs/vsbys if any storms cross
through any of the aerodromes. Winds will generally remain east
to southeasterly through the next 24 hours potentially gusting
up to 25 kts at times with any storm that affect the 4 terminals
capable of producing much stronger gusts.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Vipond
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...Vipond