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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD
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236 FXUS63 KABR 261534 AAB AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1034 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread rain expected through Monday night. Upwards of 1" of rain is possible over northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota, and some locations may see as much as 1.5". - Northerly winds increase Monday afternoon, reaching a sustained 25-35 miles per hour, gusting up to 45 miles per hour. The strongest gusts are currently expected along the James River Valley. - High temperatures 5 to 15 degrees below normal expected through the middle of the week. Highs are expected to be in the upper 40s to 50s through that period. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1023 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Surface troughing extends over the region this morning with radar indicating sprinkles or very light rain over portions of central SD and over far northeastern SD/western MN associated with weak 700mb FGEN within an area of higher winds aloft. Regional radar shows the first wave of rain over southwestern SD which will move in over south central SD within the next hour or so. Models show this rain spreading northeastward becoming more widespread later on this afternoon and this evening. Current temps are in the lower to mid 40s and dewpoints in the 30s to low 40s. No significant changes made to the forecast as it remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 629 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 12Z TAFs. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 149 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Light rain showers linger early this morning over northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota. These showers are expected to move out over the next few hours, out of the forecast area before sunrise. Little accumulation is expected out of these showers, a couple hundredths at the most early this morning. Rain will begin again this morning to afternoon, on the north side of a low pressure center supported by a shortwave aloft. An eastward shift in the track of the low has been noted over the past 24 hours, pushing some of the highest precipitation totals east and out of the Aberdeen CWA. Ensemble median values remain at their peak around 1"- 1.5" over northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota, with values dropping off moving west (bottoming out around a quarter of an inch over north central South Dakota). Still seeing a bit of spread in the ensembles on precip totals. The eastward trend in the low track naturally has also shifted the location of the greatest uncertainty east. 25th/75th spread over northeastern South Dakota now sits at roughly 0.75"-1", 25th percentile values now peak at around 1", and 75th percentiles 2" over northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota. Some stray embedded thunderstorms may be possible, mainly Sunday night. However, no severe weather is expected. On the back side of the low Monday afternoon, a northerly low-level jet will move over the region, up to 50 knots at 850mb. These winds are expected to mix to the surface Monday afternoon, potentially reaching Wind Advisory levels over part of the forecast area. There is still some uncertainty as to the exact location, but the greatest probabilities (30-50%) from the latest NBM are located along the James River Valley. Winds will drop off overnight as the low pressure center (and associated tight pressure gradient) continues off to the east. By mid-week, an upper-level trough settles over the northern plains, allowing colder air (near 0C at 850mb, which is between the 10th and 25th percentiles for this time of year) to take hold. This colder air will support high temperatures in the 50s Thursday, which is roughly 5-15 degrees below normal for late April/early May. There is some signal for a weak ridge to move in by the weekend, returning the forecast area to normal or slightly above normal temperatures for the weekend. No substantial precipitation is expected beyond Monday, other than perhaps a stray shower or two generated by jet streak overhead on Wednesday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 629 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG The latest guidance shows VFR conditions (cigs) deteriorating today at all four terminals between 18Z and 00Z, with KPIR and KATY possibly dropping from VFR all the way down to IFR in that 6 hour window. KABR and KMBG are also expected to fall from MVFR to IFR after 00Z this evening. Already seeing the beginnings of this next round of showers (and possibly some embedded thunder) developing south of KPIR and KATY, slowly drifting northward. Between now and 18Z today, shower coverage at KPIR/KATY is expected to increase, with KABR and KMBG likely getting into numerous/widespread coverage of rain showers by 00Z. KMBG should experience rain shower coverage through early Monday morning before precipitation ends. But, at some point during the Sunday night period, showers coverage at KPIR, KABR and KATY will probably changeover to periods of light to moderate drizzle before returning to rain shower p-type Monday morning. Off and on coverage of rain showers is expected to wane on Monday from southwest to northeast. Visibility drops to MVFR/IFR at times during this event in the heavier showers and heaviest pockets of drizzle. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...MMM DISCUSSION...BC AVIATION...10 |
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NWS Aberdeen, SD (ABR) Office Forecast Discussions.
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