145
FXUS63 KABR 011858
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
158 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures into the mid 90s to low 100s return over parts of
  central and north central South Dakota Sunday. Temperatures
  are set to cool down to below normal for Tuesday and
  Wednesday.

- Storms may develop along a cold front moving over the area
  late Monday into early Tuesday. A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of
  5) is in place for parts of northeastern and central South
  Dakota, as well as western Minnesota. A Slight Risk (Level 2
  of 5) clips part of far northeastern South Dakota and Traverse
  County, Minnesota. With these storms, the main severe threats
  will be hail of one to two inches in diameter and wind gusts
  of 60 miles per hour.

- Above normal temperatures and strong southerly wind gusts will
  combine to create elevated fire weather concerns over central
  and north central South Dakota Sunday, when gusts reach as
  high as 30-40 miles per hour and relative humidity falls below
  30 percent.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

At 1 PM CDT, it was sunny (smoke aloft also noted). Temperatures are
warming through the 80s, for the most part. Light and variable winds
across the forecast area, except out over north central South
Dakota, where a persistent southerly breeze 10 to 20 mph with some
higher gusts are happening.

GSM solutions and Ensemble clusters analysis maintain some semblance
of western CONUS ridging throughout the seven day forecast, with
northwest flow aloft happening over this CWA during most of it. This
should support a continuation of western CONUS wildfire smoke aloft
advecting across this region, along with a couple of cold frontal
passages to help keep the really warm air from building back into
the CWA for any sort of prolonged period of time. Model guidance
maintains height falls over the northern plains during the early to
middle portion of next week, when one of these cold frontal passages
is progged for Monday. Models are progging it to be too warm aloft
Sunday afternoon/evening across north central South Dakota (700hpa
temps +16C to +18C), despite the ~1000J/kg of CAPE and 20-30 knots
of deep layer shear showing up along the boundary out west river
Sunday evening. When the front is working through eastern South
Dakota Monday afternoon/evening, the deep layer shear is even
stronger (~30-45 knots), tied to ~1500-2000J/kg CAPE. And, models
have progged the mid-level warmth to cool down enough Monday evening
to wear updrafts could eventually break through the weaker mid-level
capping inversion and lead to something potentially supercellular in
nature (current SPC marginal/slight risk in place for this on Day
3). The next chance at precipitation could come Thursday/night, as
models prog another frontal passage at that time.

Other than tomorrow (Sunday), west river, temperatures do not appear
to get too out of hand during this 7-day forecast cycle.
Temperatures in the 90s to around 100F degrees (10 to 15 degrees
above normal) are forecast throughout and west of the Missouri River
on Sunday (hottest day of the period). Prior to the frontal passage
on Monday, highs in the 80s to low 90s are expected, cwa-wide. Then
much cooler conditions (near to 10 degrees below normal) are progged
in the deterministic/ensembles solutions for Tuesday and Wednesday
behind the Monday frontal passage. There is supposed to be another
frontal passage on Thursday, but overall, it appears the airmass
over the region will moderate a few degrees each day from Thursday
through the end of the period, running generally near to as much as
10 degrees above normal.

Southerly winds 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts are forecast over the
region on Sunday. Across north central South Dakota, where things
are D2-3 drought stricken, these windy conditions will combine with
dry fuels and RH values expected to drop below 30 percent, as well
as temperatures running up into the 90s, to perhaps as high as 100F
degrees, to produce high to very high Grassland Fire Danger indices.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Southerly
surface winds may gust up to around 25 kts by this afternoon
across the KMBG region, and to around 25-30 kts on Sunday across
the entire region.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...10