945
FXUS63 KABR 030822 CCA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
222 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal high temperatures will continue through the week.
Wednesday and Thursday will be the warmest, around 20 degrees above
normal, with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

- There is a 40-60% chance of light rain late Thursday night,
transitioning to a wintry mix of rain, snow, or freezing rain Friday
into Friday evening. The chance of 1" of snow or more is between 30
and 60%. The highest chance of freezing rain will be over and east
of the Prairie Coteau, around 15 to 30%.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 220 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Issued a Dense Fog Advisory for portions of central and northeast
SD until noon. Webcams are showing multiple areas with
visibilities reduced to one quarter mile or less.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 105 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

As of 1 AM CST, temperatures are in the upper 20s to low 30s
under relatively clear skies and winds are out of the south at 10
to 15 mph. Some areas of fog/freezing fog have formed between the
Missouri and James Valleys this morning. This could cause slick
roads for the morning commute.

Quiet weather continues today with mild temperatures expected.
Going with the trend of the last few days, did lower high
temperatures again today both for snowpack and cloud cover.
Looking ahead to the Thursday night/Friday system, not too much
has changed location wise. PoPs have increased into the 40-60%
range across most of the CWA. With uncertainty of strength and
temperatures for this event, precipitation types/locations are
uncertain but there does look to be potential for freezing rain
with this system. For now, the chance of freezing rain has
increased over eastern SD to 15-30%, highest over the Prairie
Coteau/Sisseton Hills area. The chance for 1 inch or more of snow
has also increased, now between 30 and 60%, highest over south
central SD where QPF amounts are higher. Temperatures behind this
system look to rebound relatively quickly as we get some strong
WAA in from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1109 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

An increase in MVFR/IFR CIGs is still in the forecast through Tuesday
morning, along with increasing areal coverage of FG/BR and IFR/MVFR
VSBY. Confidence on arrival time at the TAF sites, along with
overall coverage is somewhat low at this time. Conditions are
forecast to improve across central SD (KPIR/KMBG) by late morning or
closer to 18Z, while areas further east (KATY/KABR) may be stuck
with clouds and fog later into the afternoon. Suggestions point to
more FG/BR Tuesday night.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for SDZ004>006-009-010-
     016>018-034>037.

MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...13
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...20