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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD
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107 FXUS63 KABR 151404 AAC AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 904 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy to areas of fog will continue through the mid/late morning mainly James Valley and eastward. - Scattered showers and weak thunderstorms will be possible through the afternoon mainly over portions of south central through northeastern SD and west central MN ahead and along a cold front. No severe weather is anticipated, however, heavy rainfall is possible. - Average to slightly below average temperatures expected through the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 902 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026 Allowed the Dense Fog Advisory to expire this morning. Visibilities have improved to above a quarter of a mile, though some lighter fog may linger until late morning. Expanded pops farther north and east this morning as a line of showers and isolated thunderstorms have begun developing in the past half hour. Latest model guidance holds these showers across east central SD through the morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 148 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026 As of 1am, a storm cluster consisting of moderate rain and a few lightning strikes are tracking eastward along/ahead of the frontal boundary over north central SD and into ND where forcing is better, however, CAPE and lapse rates are pretty weak with decent bulk shear between 30-40kts. None of the CAMs really have a good handle, either not showing this storm at all or should be dissipating by now. So if it holds together it will continue to skirt along the ND/SD border bringing the potential for lighting and brief heavy downpours. Areas of light rain/drizzle per WAA flow continues over far northeastern SD into western MN as well. 00Z ABR sounding indicated a nearly saturated sounding, especially at the lower levels, per southeasterly flow near the surface and southwesterly flow between 700-500mb. This is causing fog/low stratus over portions of northeastern SD/western MN per latest obs and webcams showing a reduction in visibility and MVFR/IFR cigs. So have fog mention in the grids through the mid morning. Within this southwest flow, weak embedded shortwave energy continues to track across the Northern Plains with a more notable shortwave to the south of the CWA in Nebraska tracking east/northeast. An inverted trough/weak low is currently over central ND with its frontal boundary extending into central SD and its weak low lying along the boundary. By 12Z, the low is forecast to over northeastern ND/MN with the cold front extending through northeastern SD into NE, with only a slight movement northeast of the low and east with the cold front. Models indicate scattered chances of showers and thunderstorms here and there ahead and along this boundary, mainly over south central through northeastern SD/MN where better forcing resides, however, differences in timing and location do vary between the CAMs so stuck mostly to the NBM which keeps it more broadbrushed. CAPE values this afternoon will be around 1000 j/kg or less and shear under 30kts, therefore, any storms that occur will be short lived and below severe limits as lapse rates remain weak. However, monsoonal moisture being pulled in per southwest flow is causing PWAT values of 1.7 to almost 2", west to east across the CWA, so any rain shower and/or weak thunderstorms (especially slow moving) could produce heavy rainfall. By this evening, the region will be behind the cold front, in northwest flow at the surface and winds switching to zonal aloft. A high pressure system will track into the region from the northwest and center itself over the Dakotas Sunday keeping the area dry. This high will shift a bit east Sunday night with pops returning over central SD (40-65%) Sunday night into Monday morning. As the high exits the region, a stronger shortwave and its west to east oriented cold front will drop out of Canada and over the region bringing our best chance for moisture with widespread pops of 50-70%. Still a few days out to nail down specifics or whether severe weather will be a threat. Temperatures remain around average to slightly below average through the weekend, ranging in the 70s to around 80. Little bit warmer on Monday with highs in the upper 70s to the upper 80s before cooling back into the 70s behind the cold front and incoming high Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 629 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG LIFR/VLIFR conditions at KABR in dense fog and low stratus will persist for the first couple hours of this forecast cycle before improving to MVFR by mid morning and eventually back to VFR late this morning. Elsewhere, KATY will see MVFR/IFR conditions also due to fog and low stratus along with a mention of VCSH through about mid morning before showing signs of improvement back to VFR this afternoon. VFR conditions will be more prevalent at KPIR/KMBG through the next 24 hours. Northwest winds could gust around 20 kts this afternoon. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...20 DISCUSSION...MMM AVIATION...Vipond |
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