547
FXUS63 KABR 050901
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
301 AM CST Mon Jan 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dense fog in the northeast this morning.

- One round of light rain/sprinkles (10-30%) moves through E/NE SD
this afternoon/evening. Temperatures in spots could remain below
freezing with light ice possible.

- 2nd round of light rain (30-60%) moves through central SD early
Tuesday morning. Temperatures again near freezing could result in
light ice.

- Late week storm system across the Plains is possible, but main
impacts currently setting up well southeast of the region as
probability for 1 inch or greater snowfall only around 20% or less.

- Generally above normal temperatures in the extended period (Wed-
Mon) with 30s and 40s for highs (except Saturday).

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 256 AM CST Mon Jan 5 2026

Fog is mostly confined to the northeast of the state this morning,
with just high clouds west of the James valley. Under this,
temperatures are right around the freezing mark, with a weak
pressure pattern and light winds. As we proceed through the next 24
hour or so, the main focus is on two weak waves that slowly
propagate overhead in succession. The first moves overhead today,
though has trended south a little with the best ascent. Moisture
with this wave is mostly above 10kft, with a deep dry warm layer.
850mb temperatures remain a standard deviation above climo, and at
the inversions peak there is a 9C dewpoint depression this moisture
must fall through before reaching the surface. Thus, overall
moisture will be little more than sprinkles, with the HREF
probability of measuring 0.01 or greater at only 15 to 35% with the
peak in western Minnesota. Again, with 925/850mb temperatures above
freezing for the most part, precipitation type is expected to remain
rain prior to reaching the surface at which point surface
temperature remains the determinate factor as to whether we will see
rain or freezing rain. Again, not a high confidence especially up
across the northeast and western Minnesota.

The second wave follows close behind for tonight/Tuesday morning.
The dry layer is not as deep or warm for this second wave, and thus
presents with a better option for translating moisture to the
surface. Timing is during the early morning, meaning again the
potential for near surface temperatures to have dropped below
freezing prior to the onset of precipitation. HREF probability of
measuring is up to 60% just southwest of Pierre.

And with the weak pressure pattern, light precipitation, and the cool
air and moisture trapped below the inversion, fog and stratus are
expected to linger across the area though with less confidence in
its coverage/extent going forward.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 256 AM CST Mon Jan 5 2026

Main highlight in the extended period is the upper level trough
moving eastward across the central/northern plains on Friday. At the
surface, GEFS/GEPS/ENS continue to show the surface low well
southeast of the area, mainly across MO/IL/IN. We appear to be on
the northwest fringe of precip chances, if any at all. ENS is the
most "aggressive" with snowfall across the region, but only giving
~20% or less chances for greater than 1 inch over the region
Friday/Friday night, with slightly higher chances more over
southeast SD into southern MN. Inherited PoPs have only 20-30%
chances for snowfall across the region with little, if any
accumulation. Will continue to monitor evolution of models early
this week regarding the surface low moving out into the plains late
in the week.

As for temperatures, Grand Ensemble showing 925mb temps generally
above zero C through much of the mid/late week, which spells out
mild and above normal temperatures for most areas. NBM showing quite
a bit of 30s and 40s for highs Wednesday through Friday, with signs
of a brief cooldown Saturday as 925mb temps drop to -10C to -13C
across the eastern CWA. Forecast highs drop back into the 20s and
30s Saturday, coolest over the eastern CWA. As previously mentioned,
this is rather brief though as GEFS/GEPS/ENS all show mild air
returning for the end of the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1120 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions with light/variable winds for KPIR/KMBG. Currently
VFR at KABR, but expected fog for later tonight. Fog is already at
KATY and will persist through the mid-morning.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for SDZ007-008-
     011-019>023.

MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...07