453
FXUS63 KABR 110711
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
211 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal high temperatures in the 80s today. A sharp cooldown
is expected Saturday through early next week with highs in the 60s
to low 70s. These temperatures are about 5 to 10 degrees below
normal.

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect for parts of south central South
Dakota. A combination of dry fuels, wind gusts up to 40 miles per
hour, and afternoon humidity around 20 percent will create critical
fire weather conditions. Grassland Fire Danger will reach High for
all counties west of Brown and Spink Counties and Very High west of
the Missouri River.

- There is a Slight (Level 2 of 5) to Marginal (Level 1 of 5) risk
for severe storms late this afternoon into this evening over
northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota. Main severe threats
include hail up to 2 inches in diameter and wind gusts of 60 to 75
miles per hour. A tornado cannot be ruled out either.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

A cold front is set to pass through the region this afternoon,
turning winds to the northwest. Under the cold air advection regime,
wind gusts may reach as high as 40 miles per hour, with perhaps a
stray gust up to 45 miles per hour. Confidence on gusts reaching 45
miles per hour (Wind Advisory criteria) is somewhat low at this
point. HREF and REFS both do not give much credence to the
possibility (