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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD
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913 FXUS63 KABR 011908 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 208 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a Slight Risk, level 2 of 5, for isolated to scattered severe storms along and east of a line from Murdo to Miller late this afternoon through late this evening. Main threats include hail, one to two inches in diameter, and wind gusts of 60 to 75 mph. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out over portions of south central SD this evening. Heavy rainfall is also possible. - There is a Marginal Risk, level 1 of 5, for isolated severe storms along and near a line from Pierre through Redfield to Gary. Main threat includes large hail, 1" in diameter, and wind gusts of 60 mph. Heavy rainfall is possible. - Above normal temperatures (+5 to +10 degrees) continue through the week, peaking at 10 to 20 degrees above normal Friday/Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 203 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026 A negative tilted shortwave (originating from the southwestern US/monsoonal moisture) will continue to track northeast over the region with additional shortwave energy developing on the southern tail of this wave over the eastern half of SD/NE into MN through late tonight. At the surface, a stationary boundary lies south of the CWA extending through central/northern NE into IA as a high pressure system lies just to the north of the CWA over ND. With this mid level moisture, current radar indicates scattered rain (and a few embedded weak thunderstorms) with HREF paintballs/NBM indicating a gradual northeast track across the CWA with additional development of showers and thunderstorms (forcing from this secondary energy aloft) this afternoon/evening through late tonight. Did a blend of HREF/NBM for pops through 12Z Wednesday. As the shortwave exits the region, the last of the convection is forecast to exit eastern SD/MN by 12Z Wednesday. Instability wise, HREF mean MUCAPE runs from 500 to about 1000j/kg south of highway 12 with the highest values over far south central SD. Bulk shear ranges from 30-50kts over the CWA, highest over south central through east central SD with the overall better forcing and instability lying south/southeast of the CWA. Dewpoints will rise into the lower to mid 60s over this area with ample amounts of low and mid level moisture as PWATs run between 1.3 to 1.6" over the southern half of the CWA (gradient increasing further south you go) which runs between 92 to 97th percentile per climo for this time of year. Latest HREF mean 2-5km UH>75ms2s indicates the bulk of this potential organized convection developing over SD/NE border between ~22-00Z along the SD/NE border and tracking northeastward through southeastern SD into MN with portions of south central to east central possibly being clipped being on the northern side of the convection. 2-5km UH>150m2s2 indicates supercell potential with most of the HREF models keeping this threat again south of the CWA. Looking at the HRRR/REFS specifically, it does indicate discrete cells developing over south central/southern SD (potentially supercells), as 0-3km SRH is up to around 400m2s2 around 00Z, with additional development/storm mergers with storms potentially growing upscale into a condensed bowing segment over southeastern SD into MN. Otherwise north of this, isolated cells or clusters (potentially strong to severe) will track across central through northeastern SD/MN late tonight early AM mainly east of the Mo River. There is a bit of a difference in CAMs on exact storm mode and track at this time so low confidence exists on exact outcome. With this threat, the SPC has shifted the Slight Risk (level 2/5) a bit more southward due to the latest HREF run with the slight risk along and east of a line from Murdo to Miller with a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) north and northwest of the slight risk mainly from Pierre to Gettysburg and eastward. The main threats will be large hail, quarter to golfball sized, with the potential for 2"+ in diameter within the cig 1 hatched area over southeast Jones, Lyman, Buffalo, and the southern half of Hyde/Hand counties per the supercell threat. With this threat of supercells, this hatched area is also highlighted in a 2% tornado risk being closer to the frontal boundary as hodographs are curved over far south central, southern, and southeastern SD this afternoon and evening. STP is under 1 with 0-1km shear running between 15-20kts and 0-1km SRH between 100- 200m2s3. Wind gusts of 60-75 mph with a hatched area over southern Lyman County and eastward through southeastern SD. Due to higher PWATs, any slow moving and stronger storms could lead to heavy rainfall. With high pressure and winds mainly out of the east and recent rains leads to the possibility of upslope fog along the eastern slopes of the Coteau early Wednesday morning. Otherwise, continuing in southwest flow aloft, another shortwave will move in over the region Wednesday night/Thursday morning. With lack of instability and weak forcing, there is really only spotty chances of moisture over portions of south central SD for now per NBM. Additional threat of showers and thunderstorms are possible over far northeastern SD/MN Thursday afternoon and evening, associated with a surface low, with the higher pops and instability to our northeast closer to the low. Otherwise a trough deepens over the western CONUS by the end of the week and weekend which will amplify the ridge overhead with really only sight chance of pops here and there for the weekend. Highs will overall warm into the upper 80s to the lower 90s Thursday-Saturday, with Friday and Saturday temps around 10-20 degrees above average! Temps will gradually cool Sunday into early next week as the ridge breaks down and cold front moves through. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1210 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Scattered showers and thunderstorms will mainly affect KPIR and potentially KMBG through this evening with the showers and thunderstorms, and additional development, spreading northeastward across the region through early Wednesday morning that could affect all terminals. There is the potential that some storms could be severe over KPIR and KATY this evening with the main threat being large hail, quarter to golfball size, and wind gusts of 60-70 mph. Heavy rainfall will also be a threat. Once the moisture clears out, some fog for KATY is possible around 12Z to end of the TAF period. VFR cigs are forecast through the TAF period, however, any stronger storms/heavy rain could lead to sub VFR cigs temporarily or if thicker fog develops over KATY Wednesday morning. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MMM AVIATION...MMM |
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