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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 251123 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
523 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024


- Light snow/rain showers are possible along the northern border region
  today. Cooler today but warming up again for Monday with well
  above normal temperatures.

- A cold front crossing the region Monday night into Tuesday will bring
  significantly colder temperatures, strong northerly winds to 50
  mph, and light snow. While snowfall accumulations are expected
  to be light (only a 20-45 percent chance of 1" of snow or more),
  snow falling on warmer roads may lead to some travel impacts.


Issued at 224 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024

Fast northwest flow aloft continues over the region for today. An H5
jetlet does push across ND and the northern part of the state, with
a low chance of measurable pcpn. CAMS have been pretty consistent
progging this over the last couple days, so will keep pops going
along the border region. Clouds and a bit colder airmass do settle
over the region today, and thus highs will be cooler vs yesterday,
but highs may be tricky given a fair amount of predicted cloudiness
through the day. Didn`t stray too far from inherited forecast, or
NBM for that matter. Mixing depths will be much shallower today too.
Monday will bring even milder air to the region, with H85 temps
pushing +10C. Mixing depths per soundings don`t look especially
deep, but with mostly sunny skies still expect many highs in the


Issued at 224 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024

Still on track for some light snow across the CWA Monday night into
Tuesday. The main concern will be the gusty winds along with a 40+
degree drop in temperatures as an arctic front sweeps through. The
Clusters are coming together better with the overall position of the
northern stream trough at 12Z Tuesday, which will be over the parts
of the Western CONUS/Rockies along with a shortwave pushing east
across Canada/ND border with the entire system pushing
east/southeast. Down at 850mb, the low will continue to push east
across Canada, along with its trough, Monday night into Tuesday with
the backside of the trough over the central and eastern CWA by
Tuesday afternoon/evening. The surface low is forecasted to be over
MN/Ontario border Monday evening as the strong arctic cold front
will sweep southeast over the CWA with the cold front well off to
our east/southeast of the CWA as the surface low dips south over
MN/WI border by 12Z Tuesday.

First looking at the temperatures, this will be a non diurnal trend
as our highs will be early in the morning and lows in the afternoon.
At 06Z Tuesday, models and NBM are in fairly good agreement with the
cold front just entering our northwestern CWA as temps ahead of it
will be well in the 30s/40s. By 12Z, NBM temps will be falling into
the teens and 20s post front! By 18Z, all of the CWA will be in the
teens! Just to give some perspective, EC indicates at 06Z Tuesday,
CAA of -11C to -25C/12 hrs at 925mb and up to -34C/12 hrs at 850mb!
850mb temps will fall to around -18C and this is well below average
per climo (lower 10th percent)! As an arctic high moves in behind
the system, Tuesday night lows will be down in the single digits
with some areas that could hit a few degrees below zero as the
clouds clear out and radiational cooling sets in.

Precipitation wise, ensembles overall show the northwest to
southeast movement of precip with the precip moving into the
northwestern CWA Monday evening-midnight. GEFS is still the slowest
on the arrival and progression of the moisture as it pushes
southeast. Precip looks to be out of the southeastern CWA by Tuesday
evening with pops on the leading edge around 20% up to 55% in the
brunt of it as it moves across the CWA. Ptype could be some rain
very early across northwestern CWA but will quickly be all snow as
the cold air overruns the system fast and quickly cools the column.
Since most of this precip will be behind the cold front, Bufkit
soundings across the CWA do show a lag in the column becoming
saturated after it cools, helping to limit QPF. Also, there seems to
be a split in the forcing with the stronger forcing to our
north/northeast and to our southwest, so this helps limit QPF. NBM
prob of QPF>0.10" from 00Z Monday to 00Z Tuesday ranges from 20-45%,
highest along ND/SD border and parts of northeastern SD. Prob of 1"
of snow for this same time period is 50% or less, highest again
along the ND/SD border. Prob of 2" is 35% or less across the CWA. We
will watch our southeastern CWA Tuesday afternoon as 800-750mb
indicates some FGEN that may lead to better forcing=higher QPF in
this area. In areas with the falling snow/flash freeze could make
travel hazardous along with the possibility of blowing snow as this
strong CAA will lead wind gusts of 40-50+mph with the highest gusts
moving west to east with the strongest CAA. Winds will decrease west
to east late Tuesday into Wednesday morning.

Otherwise, dry through Saturday with our next system moving in
Sunday into Monday (15-40% pops with snow changing to rain). Temps
will rebound in the 50s/60s by the end of the week as a ridge moves


Issued at 522 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024


VFR skies/vsbys are expected regionwide through today.





Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Aberdeen, SD (ABR) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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