782
FXUS63 KABR 250518
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1218 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 50/50 chance at 1/4" moisture in north central SD with
the system Thursday night/Friday. Precipitation potential drops
rapidly farther south and east of the Missouri river.

- The probability of exceeding wind advisory criteria (45mph) is 50%
west of the James valley Saturday.

- There is potential for severe weather Saturday. Confidence is low
on storm development due to very warm temperatures above the
surface. If storms do form, all hazards will be possible.

- Overall, the trend in mild temperatures and low humidity is to end
soon, with above normal temperatures for the weekend and next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

UPDATE for 06Z TAF discussion below.

UPDATE Issued at 606 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

The forecast is on track this evening. No major changes are
planned.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

As of 12:30 PM CDT, temperatures are in the upper 60s to low
70s with winds out of the northwest at around 10 to 20 mph and
gusts up to about 25 mph. Expect mainly dry conditions for the
rest of the day, except for some showers and weak thunderstorms
across south central SD later this afternoon. No severe weather
is expected at this time.

There is a chance for some showers and weak thunderstorms Thursday
night into Friday morning. The chance for more than a quarter inch
QPF is 40-50% mainly over Corson county. No severe weather is
expected at this time. The weekend is still looking at some
potential for unsettled weather. Ensembles have shown the low
pressure system slowing down so instead of being over the western
Dakotas Saturday, its still forecast to be over eastern MT and WY,
not getting into the Dakotas until Sunday morning. Looking at
ensemble soundings, there is relatively good agreement of at least
some capping Saturday afternoon and little moisture. The GFS has the
largest cap. ECMWF ensemble members tend towards a smaller cap that
would be easier for storms to overcome. Hodographs show a good
amount of lower level shear as well. Overall, if we end up with a
smaller cap, or if we mix out well and storms are able to develop
and grow, we would be looking at discrete severe storms with all
hazards possible. There is a 15% risk area over portions of north
central SD between US Hwy 14 and 281 which, from ensemble soundings,
looks to have the smallest cap. On the precipitation side of things,
chances for the 24 hour period ending Sunday morning have decreased
in spatial extent, now covering mainly areas north of US Hwy 12 with
50% or greater chances while areas south are in the 30-45% range.

Temperatures going into the weekend are also going to start to warm
up. Highs are expected to be in the 80s to 90s with heat indices in
the upper 80s to mid 90s, highest across east central SD. This will
put the HeatRisk in the moderate (affects those sensitive to heat,
especially those without cooling/hydration) to major (affects anyone
without cooling/hydration) categories. These higher categories look
to start Sunday and continue into at least the beginning of the work
week. Stay on the lookout for signs of heat related illnesses.
Friday, winds west of the James River have the potential to gust up
to 35 mph and are not expected to diminish much at all overnight.
These winds will then pick up and spread east Saturday gusting 35 to
45 mph over much of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will continue through the period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...06