982
FXUS63 KABR 230712
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
212 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong sustained west winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph
are expected through the day over central SD.

- Red Flag conditions will be occurring over northeastern SD and
west central MN this afternoon as relative humidity values will fall
below 25 percent and winds will be gusting up to 40 mph. If a fire
were to ignite, it could become difficult to control or suppress.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

As of 07z, a couple scattered areas and lines of convection are
moving over the James River Valley. This convection has been
producing lots of lightening but the severe wind threat has been
weakening through the night. The storms will continue moving east
through the early morning. The cold front that the storms are
developing on will be moving through northeastern SD this morning,
with chances of showers and convection develop along the front
decreasing through the morning. Some models have rain moving into
north central SD this afternoon while others stop anything from
developing due to the lack of moisture. Because of this, there is a
15-30% chance for scattered rain showers early in the afternoon over
north central SD.

The surface low pressure will continue to sit over ND today, helping
to create strong winds over central and northeastern SD. Winds over
central SD have a 50-90% chance to gust up to and above 45 mph
today, as well as have sustained winds over 30 mph in some areas.
Because of this, a Wind Advisory has been issued for areas west of
the James River. Northeastern SD will have lighter winds that could
still gust up to 35 mph at times. Additionally, even though there
are some chances for rain to move through northeastern SD in the
morning, RH values will be getting below 25% for areas east of the
James River. The stronger winds and lower humidity values will lead
to some fire weather conditions during the afternoon. As such a Red
Flag Warning has been issued for northeastern SD and west central MN
this afternoon.

The surface low will retrograde back to the northwest tonight, which
will help to decrease the stronger wind gusts over central and
northeastern SD Friday and into the weekend. Temperatures will be
cooling behind the cold front today into the weekend. Around average
to about 10 degrees below normal temperatures are expected, with
highs in the low to mid 50s. Some of the models show some scattered
rain showers developing Friday evening into Saturday over central and
northeast SD, but this will depend on if there is moisture in the
atmosphere for it. Currently there is a 20-35% chance for light rain
showers Friday night into Saturday over central and northeastern SD.
QPF amounts look to be less than 0.1 inch.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

TSRA affecting KABR at the start of the TAF period, with MVFR or
even IFR VSBY possible. KATY in line for SHRA/TSRA chances later
this morning, while KPIR/KMBG appear to be done with any
precipitation potential. After these storms move out of the
area, it appears VFR conditions are in store through the
remainder of the TAF period, with southerly winds becoming
westerly and gusty.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for SDZ007-008-011-019>023.
     Wind Advisory from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning to 7 PM
     CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for SDZ003>005-009-010-015.
     Wind Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 7 PM
     CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for SDZ006-016>018-033>037-
     045-048-051.
MN...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...TMT