771
FXUS63 KABR 120718
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
218 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog are in place over northeastern South Dakota and
western Minnesota this morning. Some fog may be dense, with
visibilities down to a quarter of a mile or lower at times. A Dense
Fog Advisory is in effect through 1 PM CDT today.

- Cooler temperatures will persist in the coming days. Expect highs
in the mid 50s to upper 60s through at least the middle of the week.
Overnight lows may drop below freezing Wednesday and Friday
mornings.

- Some light showers move overhead today. Generally a few hundredths
of an inch are expected, but localized areas along the North
Dakota/South Dakota border may see as much as a tenth of an inch of
rain. Additional rain chances come late Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

A low stratus deck is in place over the forecast area early this
morning. Northeasterly flow is also present, creating upslope flow
along the Prairie Coteau. Between the two, it has not been difficult
for fog to form over that area, and as a result a Dense Fog Advisory
has been issued for parts of northeastern South Dakota. Further
expansions of the Advisory will be possible depending on how other
areas evolve this morning. Due to the persistence of cloud cover
after sunrise today, fog may take a while to burn off, so currently
the Advisory is in place through 18Z.

Rain showers are also moving into north central South Dakota this
morning, although mainly just some light drizzle as of ~0630Z.
Showers will progress slowly east through the day today, mainly over
north central and northeastern South Dakota as well as western
Minnesota. Rain rates will remain fairly light, and only a few
hundredths to perhaps a tenth of an inch at most is expected. Some
additional chances for rain showers will be present over central and
north central South Dakota Tuesday as well, but once again not
expecting any substantial rainfall, just a couple hundredths at the
most.

Chances for rain return once again Wednesday evening into Thursday.
An upper-level low sitting over the western CONUS will move slowly
north, but model trends show a more progressive evolution to the
east (keeping the upper-level low to the south) rather than previous
runs where the low moved further north. As a result, ensemble
guidance continues to back off on the totals Wednesday into
Thursday. Expectations now are just a few hundredths of accumulation
in total. Latest NBM probabilities of seeing a tenth of an inch or
more through the event sit at 20-50%, increasing as you move from
north to south across the forecast area. These numbers are down from
the 40-60% that was in place 24 hours ago.

Temperatures through the work week are expected to be near-normal.
As a result, overnight lows will drop into the mid-30s to perhaps
even freezing over the next few days. This will mainly occur over
the northern parts of the forecast area, but widespread frost will
be possible, particularly on Wednesday and Friday mornings. Chances
for a hard freeze (28 degrees or lower) are fairly low through the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

IFR/LIFR CIGs are forecast to persist across the region through
the morning hours, with slight improvements to MVFR during the
afternoon hours. Clouds forecast to remain in place all the way
into Monday night. Areas of FG/BR overnight through Monday
morning will bring areas of MVFR/IFR/LIFR VSBY. Highest
potential for LIFR VSBY at KATY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for SDZ007-
     008-011-020-021-023.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...TMT