323
FXUS63 KABR 090505
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1105 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A fast moving band of light snow migrates west to east across
central and northeast South Dakota mid-day Friday. Little if any
accumulations anticipated.

- Around a 20-30% chance for scattered snow showers Friday night and
Saturday, but only minor accumulations of less than a half inch
expected at this time.

- Except for high temperatures generally in the teens and 20s on
Saturday, above normal temperatures are forecast during the 7-day
forecast, with 30s and 40s for highs.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 537 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

The forecast this evening looks to need few changes. Winds were
increased an average of 1-2kts and cloud cover was increased
slightly over much of the area this evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1237 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

An upper trough swings through the Plains on Friday bringing a
narrow corridor of increased mid level moisture and some decent
forcing. Westerly winds will be breezy with 20 to 30 mph gusts. NBM
continues to wash out any pops but added in some hi-res pops and QPF
to get a mention of showers in there that will move west to east
across the forecast area. Little is expected to accumulate, but any
snow falling may cause visibility reductions as the winds blow it
around.

That upper trough/upper low will continue to draw wrap around
northwest flow snow showers into eastern SD and west central MN
through Saturday morning. Can`t rule out some reaching into central
SD (mainly west river) either in an enhanced jet streak region.

Sfc high pressure builds in Saturday afternoon/evening shutting off
the showers. Another upper trough with embedded shortwave energy may
set off additional showers on Tuesday into Wednesday.

After a brief cool down in the caa in the wake of the upper trough
on Saturday, temperatures quickly rebound above normal with highs
pushing into the 40s and 50s on Tuesday. The one moderating factor
for that waa could be any low clouds/fog that develop.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1105 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected to continue over the next 24 hours.
The main concern will be afternoon winds gusting around 20-25kts
at PIR/MBG and then light snow which could bring MVFR conditions
briefly. At the highest chance of snow is at ATY from 00-03Z, but
confidence is low and the mention is only in a PROB30 group at
this point.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...06