110
FXUS63 KABR 032120
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
320 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flurries or a light dusting of snow will continue tonight
  across portions of the region. Pockets of light freezing drizzle
  cannot be ruled out, with limited impacts. Any snow
  accumulations expected to be around a half inch or less.

- Above normal temperatures are forecast (by 5 to 20 degrees)
  Wednesday through at least Monday of next week. The warmest air
  will be overhead Thursday and then again Monday, with highs in
  the 40s to low 50s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Watching the western edge of the stratus deck inch closer to
KPIR/KMBG, but indications suggest clouds fill back in westward
overnight. Still some remaining low-level moisture and weak lift
enough to support some light snow/flurries as a weak mid-level
disturbance also moves south across the Dakotas. Can see this wave
off to the north on water vapor imagery. Cannot completely rule out
some light freezing drizzle as well and have inserted mention of
this in the grids/forecast.

Warmer air then begins to overspread the region Wednesday and
especially by Thursday. By 00Z Friday, 925mb temps rise to between
+5C and +10C across the eastern CWA, while central SD may get as
high as +15C. Still looking at widespread 40s and 50s for highs on
Thursday, with locations across the far western CWA flirting with 60
degrees. In general, inherited NBM temps even into early next week
are showing 30s, 40s, and 50s for high temps, with the warmest
readings west of the Missouri River.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1137 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

A mix of MVFR/IFR CIGs will continue to affect the region through
the TAF period. An area of -SN will affect the KATY area early in
the TAF period, with potential MVFR VSBY. Overnight, another weak
wave may bring areas of -SN or even pockets of -FZDZ. Will handle
this with PROB30 for the time being until better confidence in
placement and areal coverage is reached.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...TMT