874
FXUS63 KABR 291854
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
108 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Spotty showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue
this afternoon, ending with the loss of daytime heating. Another
round of light spotty showers is expected Thursday afternoon, over
mainly south central to northeast SD and west central MN. Little to
no precipitation is expected.

- High temperatures will be around 10 degrees below normal Thursday,
topping out mainly in the 50s. The warmest day will be Saturday,
with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 108 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

The latest surface weather map shows a weak surface low set up west
to east across northern SD. This feature will slowly sink south
across NE and far southeastern by 03Z. Radar and satellite imagery
show small areas of showers and thunderstorms becoming more
abundant. While lightning and winds gusting 35-45mph will be the
main concern with any stronger shower or storm, small pea sized hail
will also be possible. A few locations over mainly western and
central SD are already indicating the potential for small hail with
ongoing small storms. The highest chances of lightning will be west
of the MO River through mid afternoon. While most locations with
these small off and on showers remain limited, ABR was able to pick
up a quick 0.01" prior to 18Z. The loss of the daytime heating will
bring our popcorn shower and thunderstorm activity to an end.

Another round of these mainly spotty showers is anticipated Thursday
with our steep lapse rates once again. The thunderstorm coverage
looks a little more limited though. Temperatures Thursday (lowest
over the next week) will be around 5F less than what occurs today,
topping out mainly in the 50s
- or around 10F below normal for this time of year. High pressure
over south central Canada will sink over the eastern Dakotas Friday
morning, and along the SD/MN border Friday evening.

Low pressure hugging the U.S./Canadian border between MT, Alberta,
and Saskatchewan Friday evening will shift east across ND/Manitoba
by midday Saturday. Warm air advection will result in highs in the
60s to low 70s Saturday (warmest expected over the next 7 days).
Other than the light popcorn showers today and Thursday afternoon,
the next chance of precipitation will be over mainly northeastern SD
(25% chance) Saturday night as the surface low tracks a cold front
across the area as the low itself exits across Ontario. A secondary
trough looks to sink down through ND Sunday night and over at least
our eastern counties Monday. We`ll see if there is enough moisture
to promote any shower activity.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will dominate much of the next 24 hours. The main
concern will be afternoon showers and a few thunderstorms.
Temporary and prob30 groups have mainly been set up to account
for the spotty precipitation. There are already thunderstorms
near the ABR site by 1715Z. The potential remains for small
hail (GS) and convective wind gusts up to 35 to 45 mph within
the strongest convective cells, in addition to brief vsby drops
into the MVFR category.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...06