411
FXUS63 KABR 291400 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
900 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a Slight (2 of 5) to Marginal Risk (1 of 5) for
  severe weather into the morning across the central/portions
  of northeastern SD. Main hazards are 90 mph winds and large
  hail. Additionally, the development of a tornado or two cannot
  be ruled out.

- There is a Marginal Risk (1 of 5) for severe weather this
  afternoon into the evening across the far eastern edge of the
  forecast area. Main hazards are large hail up to 1 inch in
  diameter and wind gusts of 60 mph.

- Western U.S. wildfire smoke (aloft) will be over the region
  through Tuesday; potentially longer depending on how steering
  flow winds evolve this week. Some minor concentrations of near
  surface smoke could happen from Monday afternoon through
  Monday night.

- A Heat Advisory has been issued as temperatures are expected
  to warm into the 90s, with dewpoints in the 70s, across far
  northeast South Dakota and west central Minnesota today. Heat
  index temperatures will be up into the 100F to 107F degree
  range for several hours this afternoon.

- Above normal temperatures are expected to persist for most of
  this week. With highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s and
  dewpoints well into the 60s, and even 70s for some locations,
  especially from Thursday onward, heat-related illnesses become
  a concern.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 858 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Trimming Convective Watch counties as the morning goes along.
Also, adding/trimming counties to a high wind warning and wind
advisory for wake-low winds developing behind this convective
system moving through the CWA. Adjusted PoPs and wind/wind gust
elements. Updates are out.

UPDATE Issued at 618 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Thunderstorm producing high winds in central South Dakota
continues to lift northeast with the watch expanded in response.
Otherwise fog continues across the area. Will reduce counties in
the advisory as fog clears post convection.

See below for an update to the aviation discussion...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Storms are still forecast to move into central SD early this morning
and move northeast into portions of northeastern SD. Models have
continued to show these storms becoming high wind producing storms
with 90 mph winds possible as the main hazard. At the same time,
there is still the threat for large hail. This will continue into
the morning until these storms move out or dissipate by mid-morning.

A surface low will be pushing into SD today as it moves to the
northeast. Lots of warm, moist air will be pushing into northeastern
SD and MN through the day. This will help with the development of
storms over eastern SD into MN during the afternoon and evening as a
cold front pushes into an environment with a lot of instability and
shear. The high-res models are showing some storms developing during
the late afternoon moving east and really taking off during the
evening east of the area in MN. While most of the threat is to the
east, there is still a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe
storms to develop. These storms could have hail of an inch in
diameter and wind gusts up to 60mph. While the main threat for
severe storms during the afternoon is over eastern SD, there could
be some scattered showers and storms that develop over north central
SD during the afternoon from energy that has wrapped around the
surface low. These storms could have hail up to an inch and winds up
to 60 mph as well.

There will be warm temperatures today over northeastern SD, with
highs in the 90s and heat index values in the upper 90s to low 100s.
A heat advisory has been issued for areas over and east of the
Prairie Coteau due to these warm temperatures. The hot temperatures
and high humidity may cause heat related illnesses in sensitive
populations and those working outside. Additionally, with upper-
level winds from the south, wildfire smoke will continue to move in
aloft over central and northeastern SD today. This smoke will most
likely stay aloft and not get to the surface, which will cause some
smokey and hazy skies.

As the surface low sits to the north, a stationary front will be
sitting over southeastern SD into MN. This will keep some slightly
cooler temperatures in the area and precipitation from forming
during the day Tuesday. This front will likely start to develop some
storms and showers during the late evening into the overnight hours
which are forecast to slowly move north into central and
northeastern SD. This will lead to a threat for storms overnight
Tuesday into the day Wednesday. Warm air will then slowly move back
into central and northeastern SD during the later part of the work
week, which will start to warm temperatures again.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 618 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

A mix of VFR/MVFR in fog for KABR/KATY/KMBG. We are seeing
visibility improve once convection rolls through. A cluster of
storms which has just glanced KPIR is headed towards KABR and
could expand far enough east to impact KATY though with less
certainty. High winds have been accompanying this thunderstorm
cluster.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     SDZ008-020>023.
     High Wind Warning until 11 AM CDT this morning for SDZ005-006-
     010-017-018.
     Wind Advisory until 2 PM CDT this afternoon for SDZ005-006-010-
     017-018.
MN...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...07