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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD
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596 FXUS63 KABR 201423 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 923 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - High temperatures Today and Saturday will average 25 to 35 degrees above normal. Expect more seasonal temperatures from Sunday onward, with highs in the 40s to 50s through the start of the work week. - Fire weather concerns remain over central/north central South Dakota through Saturday, with gusts this afternoon and Saturday afternoon around 15-30 mph. Afternoon humidity will be lowest in western and south central South Dakota at below 20%, with 20 to 30% across central/north central South Dakota. - A front coming through Saturday late afternoon/evening will shift winds to a northerly direction with gusts around 25 to 35 mph. && .UPDATE... Issued at 921 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026 Does`t look like much fog for the far northeast/western Minnesota, just a small area of stratus. Even that is headed away from the forecast area. We do have some high cloud cover which was thick on the nighttime microphysics, but much less impressive now that the sun its up. Its a little thicker streaming into the far western CWA but still, expect this will have only a slight influence on our temperatures today. Westerly low level flow will be a little weaker today as well, but overly still looking at broad downslope conditions across the CWA, which usually translates into temperatures warming above guidance. Temperatures aloft area little cooler however... about 2 to 4C, meaning we won`t be quite so warm in comparison to yesterday. Going forecast, which is fairly close to the NBM 75th percentile should suffice and there is little evidence from deterministic guidance or the NBM 25th-75th percentiles range (4 to 6F) that we should overachieve quite so dramatically as in comparison to yesterday. NBM and CAM dewpoints do show a surge later this morning back into the 40s. GFS 850mb dewpoints are around +2C from Mobridge to Huron and points east, so did temper down closer to NBM 25th percentile. Across central South Dakota, the 850mb airmass is about 2-3C drier, they typically will mix more deeply, so tempered dewpoints out that way down into the upper 30s. This would put their min relative humidity down around 20-25%. Still not enough evidence that winds will be consistently high enough for any Red Flag. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 147 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026 There is some signal for fog development early this morning, mainly over areas east of the James River. Strong RH recovery in addition to the recent snowmelt should leave the area primed for radiation fog to develop this morning. The wind provides a bit of a caveat however, up to 10-15 miles per hour out of the south. It seems to be a setup in which fog may develop where and/or when winds are light, but the uncertainty is too high to pinpoint the specifics any further than that. The main concern for today and tomorrow will be the abnormal warmth and associated fire weather concerns. Compared to Thursday, looking at a bit of an 850mb temperature decrease (roughly a 2-4 degree Celsius difference across the board) this afternoon, so that will be reflected with a slight dip in high temperatures today. Still expecting temperatures into the 70s across most of the area (upper 60s over parts of northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota), which will once again threaten record highs. Saturday`s highs will be a bit warmer, ranging from the 70s over northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota to 80s over central South Dakota. Once again record highs will be threatened, and confidence is higher on records being broken on Saturday over Friday (though both days reaching records is well within the realm of possibility). With the abnormal warmth comes the concern for critical fire weather conditions Friday and Saturday. For Friday, both the wind and humidity will be on the margin of the threshold for Red Flag Warning criteria (gusts of 25 mph and 20% humidity respectively), but confidence is low at this point. Ensemble joint probabilities put the peak chances of reaching Red Flag criteria this afternoon at roughly 10-20% over portions of Dewey and Corson county. Winds Saturday are expected to fall short of Red Flag criteria in the afternoon (gusting 15-20 mph). Afternoon humidity will still drop below 20 percent over portions of Jones and Lyman counties, which could still lead to some elevated fire weather concerns. Saturday night a cold front is set to pass through the forecast area, increasing winds overnight (gusts up to 30-35 mph) and veering them to the north. While the broad pattern of a ridge over the western CONUS will remain in place moving forward, temperatures behind this front will cool down to become near-normal (highs in the mid-40s) to just above normal through the start of next week. There will also be some chances for precipitation development along the front overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. An early look at soundings indicate rain will likely be the dominant precip type. The latest NBM probabilities show that areas along the South Dakota/North Dakota border have a 50-70% chance (decreasing moving further south) of seeing temperatures at or below freezing. All that to say freezing rain cannot be ruled out as a precip type early Sunday morning at this time. QPF expectations at this time are just a couple of hundredths, which coupled with a short period of time for temperatures to remain below freezing means that widespread impacts from ice accumulation appear unlikely at this time. Still, isolated slick spots may cause some minor travel concerns Sunday morning. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 621 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are expected to continue at all sites over the next 24 hours. The only exception would be if fog materializes within the next 2 hours, and mainly over/near the KABR/KATY terminals. If it looks like fog is developing at/near either of these terminals, will bring fog mention back. But, this is looking less and less probable. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...07 DISCUSSION...BC AVIATION...10 |
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