026
FXUS63 KABR 200709
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
209 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Red Flag Warning has been issued for east central and far
northeastern South Dakota as well as west central Minnesota due to
gusty winds (up to 30-40 mph) and low relative humidity values.
Fire weather concerns continue Wednesday as well.

- Rain chances return Wednesday night into Thursday, with a 40-75%
chance along and after a cold front moves through.

- Strong sustained west-northwest winds 25 to 40 mph with gusts up
to 50 mph are expected on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

A high pressure is moving east out of eastern SD this morning as
another area of surface high pressure starts to develop in Canada.
The south/southwesterly winds between these two highs will pick up
early this morning over central SD and move east during the morning
over north central SD and west central MN. These winds are forecast
to gust up to 30-40mph. The winds taper off over central SD before
noon and decrease during the afternoon over northeastern SD.

The southerly/southwesterly winds will be bringing warm, dry air
into the area, which will lead to increased fire weather concerns
today. Minimum relative humidity values are forecast to get below
25% over most of central and northeastern SD, with south central SD
seeing values below 20%. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for
parts of east central and far northeastern SD and west central MN as
the lower RH values and stronger winds are forecast to overlap. If a
fire were to ignite in these areas, it could become difficult to
control or suppress. While areas to the west will see the lower RH
values, these values will occur after the stronger winds move
through. While these areas west of the James River will not meet Red
Flag Warning criteria, there will still be some fire weather
concerns due to the lower RH values.

Temperatures will warm today and Tuesday to be 10-20 degrees warmer
than normal, into the mid 60s to low 80s, with the warmest
temperatures over south central SD. The continuous warm air moving
into central and northeastern SD will add up though the beginning of
the week and cause temperatures to be 25-30 degrees warmer than
normal Wednesday, getting up into the 90s for some areas. The dry
air and occasional high pressure moving over the state will help to
keep precipitation out of SD and mostly sunny skies around through
the middle of the week. Wednesday continues to show some signs for
fire weather concerns due to the warm and dry conditions and
stronger winds (gusts of 30-40 mph) forecasted during the afternoon.

A surface low pressure starts developing to the northwest Tuesday
night into Wednesday. This low and a cold front attached to it look
to move east Wednesday night into Thursday. Rain is forecast to
develop along the front as it passes through the area Wednesday
night through Thursday (40-75 percent chance), with a chance for
some thunderstorm development as well. The front will push cold air
into central and northeastern SD, dropping temperatures below normal
during the end of the work week into the weekend. This CAA will help
the stronger winds aloft get down to the surface Wednesday afternoon
through Friday, with the strongest winds forecast to occur Thursday.
There is a 30-70% chance for winds to gust over 45 mph (wind
advisory criteria) Thursday afternoon, with the highest chances over
areas west of the Missouri River.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the TAF period. A
period of low-level wind shear (LLWS) is expected across central
SD early this morning, affecting KPIR/KMBG and inserted mention
of this into the TAFs.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for SDZ008-019>023.
MN...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...TMT