796
FXUS63 KABR 050527 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1227 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Marginal Risk is in place for storms developing Monday
  afternoon and evening. The main severe threats during that
  time frame will be hail of 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts
  of 60 to 70 miles per hour.

- Temperatures roughly 5 to 10 degrees above normal (highs in
  the upper 80s to low 90s) are expected through at least the
  start of next week. There is potential for a cooldown closer
  to normal (highs in the mid 80s) by mid-week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 06Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 1034 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Clear skies are covering the area this evening behind the severe
thunderstorms that occurred earlier in the day. There is the
potential for some ground fog to develop late tonight into
Sunday morning over eastern SD and western MN. While models are
largely focused along and east of I-29, do think that there
could be some fog along/west of the James River, especially
where rain fell today and winds remain light before increasing
out of the south towards morning.

UPDATE Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Updated the forecast this evening to increase pops between the
Missouri and James River valley where widespread storms have
developed this afternoon.

Updated aviation discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Weak troughing is currently in place across the northern plains with
overall weak mid-level impulses traversing eastward. A few
storms, marginally strong, have developed or continue to develop
over central ND, north central MN, NW Iowa, and south central
SD. The reason for mentioning these storm areas is to highlight
the low forecaster confidence with regards to pops and
thunderstorms the rest of the afternoon and evening. Cams have
mostly failed to capture the morning convection across Jones
county, where MRMS indicated subsevere hail at times.

CAMS do show convection developing later this afternoon and evening
over southeastern ND and northeastern SD, where a weak frontal
boundary, mostly uncapped environment is located. Meso analysis from
SPC shows 2K J/kg of ML cape, with extremely limited effective
and deep layer shear. The environment is supportive of pulse
thunderstorms, with marginal to low end severe hail and winds
possible. With locations along and east of the James River in
the Marginal Risk today, have kept 20-30 pop in the forecast
through this afternoon and evening. The NCAR ensemble CAM viewer
suggest a low severe potential near Sisseton and east into
Minnesota.

Later tonight through Sunday night should be mostly dry with above
average temperatures. There could be patchy to areas of fog early
Sunday morning. The weather pattern becomes active again early next
week with a broad upper level trough over the southern Canadian
prairies, with increasing LLM into the forecast area. Surface based
cap values above 2K J/kg, modest deep layer shear should support
strong to severe storms, primarily Monday evening and through the
overnight hours. Upper level capping may limit convection during the
daytime hours in this CWA. The upper level trough slowly crosses the
region through midweek with additional chances for severe weather.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

There could be patchy to areas of fog during the early
morning hours on Sunday, presently forecast to impact the KATY
terminal for a few hours with IFR visby conditions. Otherwise,
all four terminals are forecast to experience good VFR
conditions throughout the TAF valid period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...17
AVIATION...10