883
FXUS63 KABR 152325 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
625 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend continues through Thursday. Highs in the upper
  70s to mid 80s Thursday (15 to 30 degrees above normal).

- The combination of warm temperatures and southerly winds of 25
  to 30 miles per hour result in High to Very High Grassland Fire
  Danger Thursday. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Thursday
  over central and northeastern South Dakota as well as parts of
  north central South Dakota. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued
  for west central Minnesota as well.

- A cold front will move through the area Thursday night, leading
  to below normal temperatures (highs in the 40s) and
  precipitation Thursday night into Friday. Precipitation starts
  out as rain Thursday night before transitioning to snow as
  colder air moves in. A couple tenths of snow accumulation on
  grassy surfaces is expected.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 622 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

The forecast remains on track this evening. No major changes are
planned.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Warming trend continues today with highs widely on track to hit the
mid-70s, about 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Other
than some fair weather cumulus over eastern South Dakota and into
western Minnesota, clear skies and light winds will continue through
the rest of this afternoon and evening.

Temperatures increase further on Thursday, with 850mb temperatures
of 15-19 degrees Celsius, well above the 90th percentile for this
time of year. This translates to highs over much of the area
(excluding north central South Dakota due to a cold front discussed
below) reaching the upper 70s to low 80s. Despite these highs 20-25
degrees above normal, no climate sites are expected to hit record
highs. Southerly winds are expected to increase Thursday as well due
to the incoming low pressure center and resultant tightening of the
pressure gradient. Gusts up to 30 knots are expected across the
forecast area by the afternoon. Due to the widespread warmth
dropping humidity to 15 to 25 percent as well as the gusty winds,
the Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning
across central and northeastern South Dakota, as well as part of
north central South Dakota. A Fire Weather Watch has also been
issued for Big Stone and Traverse counties in western Minnesota, as
confidence in reaching Red Flag criteria is slightly lower over that
area.

A longwave trough will move east over the next couple of days,
supporting a low pressure center and a cold front influencing the
Northern Great Plains beginning Thursday. In the afternoon and
evening on Thursday, the cold front will begin moving across the
forecast area, which is an acceleration in timing from previous
forecasts. Precipitation is expected to develop slightly behind the
front, with the lift coming from divergence aloft in the exit region
of the trough. At the moment, precipitation chances remain mainly
over north central South Dakota. Ensemble probability of reaching a
tenth of an inch of liquid equivalent extends in a gradient across
the forecast area, up to 60 percent in Corson County and decreasing
moving to the southeast. As cold air settles in behind frontal
passage, a transition from the initial precipitation type of rain
will transition to snow. The majority of the precipitation is
expected to fall before the warm nose cools below freezing and
allows for snow to reach the surface. Therefore, only a couple of
tenths of an inch of snow are expected at the most. Ground
temperatures will be quite warm still, so expecting most of the snow
to melt on impact, with the possible exception of grassy surfaces.

Post-frontal northerly winds will also pick up, gusting to 30-40
miles per hour across the area Friday. Similar speeds will be
present Saturday over northeastern South Dakota and western
Minnesota, with a slight dip over central and north central South
Dakota (gusts topping out at 30 miles per hour in that area). NBM
probabilities have backed down a bit, now sitting at less than a 20
percent chance of reaching Wind Advisory criteria both afternoons.
Upper-level support Friday and Saturday afternoons will remain below
35-40 knots, so concern for any sort of Wind Advisory potential is
waning.

Looking ahead to next week, an upper-level ridge will build into the
area, heralding the return of above normal temperatures to the
Northern Great Plains. Current ensemble means put highs in the mid
to upper 70s while the ridge is overhead, roughly 10-20 degrees
above normal. Ensemble cluster then show a fair degree of confidence
on another trough developing over the western CONUS, placing the
Aberdeen forecast area into the left exit region and possibly
bringing chances for precipitation. There is still quite a large
timing disparity on when exactly this system is set to arrive, so
sometime mid-week is the best depiction at this time range.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 622 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through Thursday afternoon. Southerly
winds increase Thursday morning with gusts to around 25 kts then
shift to the northwest toward the end of the period as a cold
front moves through.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ to 8 PM CDT /7 PM
     MDT/ Thursday for SDZ005>008-010-011-016>023-033>037-045-
     048-051.

MN...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...20
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...20