505
FXUS63 KABR 081711 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1211 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms is in
  effect Thursday afternoon through evening for north central
  South Dakota and parts of central South Dakota west of the
  Missouri River. Hail of 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts of
  60 to 70 miles per hour will be the main threats.

- A slight cooldown is expected today and Thursday, with
  widespread near-normal to just below normal high temperatures
  (upper 70s to low 80s). A warming trend begins by the end of
  the week, and highs may potentially hit triple digits over the
  weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026
See below for an aviation discussion for the 18z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 633 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

While the severe threat has ended this morning as of 08Z, concern
has shifted to ongoing flooding over parts of northeastern South
Dakota. Keeping a close eye out for flood/flash flood potential this
morning given the volume of rain that has fallen over the region. As
of 08Z, most areas across northeastern South Dakota have seen 2-4"
over the past 24 hours, with the heaviest hit areas seeing 4-5".

The next chances for rain comes on Thursday, mainly along and west
of the Missouri River during the afternoon to evening hours. A
Marginal Risk for severe weather is in place for north central South
Dakota as well as parts of central South Dakota west of the Missouri
River. CAPE/Shear combo of 1000-2000 J/kg and 25-35 knots
respectively will support hail as a potential threat. Wind will also
be a concern, with ample areas of DCAPE over 1000 J/kg present.
Overall confidence is fairly low at this point given that these
conditions are fairly marginal, but the threat will certainly be
there.

A broad upper-level ridge begins to build over the western and
central CONUS over the weekend, allowing for a significant warmup to
occur. By Sunday and Monday, high temperatures may exceed 100
degrees. The latest NBM probabilities sit at 50-80% chances to reach
100 degrees both days. As far as Heat Risk, Major to possibly
Extreme Heat Risk will be in place, with the highest levels being on
Monday afternoon. This indicates the potential for widespread heat
impacts, particularly for those sensitive to heat. Ensemble clusters
show a persistent signal for this ridge to sit overhead, so above
normal temperatures can most likely be expected through the end of
the week. The ridge will also shut down any potential for rain,
leading to a dry forecast over the weekend and into at least the
start of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

MVFR/IFR conditions are expected to continue for KABR, KATY, an
KPIR into the afternoon before the low ceilings from lower clouds
will clear out. KMBG will stay in VFR with KABR and KPIR becoming
VFR during the early afternoon. KATY on the other hand will have to
lower clouds sticking around for longer, which will cause IFR/MVFR
ceilings to be around into the evening before clearing to VFR.
Northeasterly winds will continue to stick around through the day,
with the winds shifting to be from the east southeast during the
morning over KPIR and KMBG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...12
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...12