316
FXUS63 KABR 091144 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
544 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and mild conditions through the day Tuesday, with well above
normal highs in the 50s and 60s.

- Weak system brings slight chances (25%) for light rain over north
central and northeast SD and west central MN Tuesday evening. Any
rainfall amounts likely less than 0.25in.

- Brief cool down Wednesday through Friday, with highs only in the
30s and 40s on Thursday. Above normal temperatures likely returning
by next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 534 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

See the updated aviation discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1238 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

As of 6z, the satellites are showing some higher clouds moving over
central and northeastern SD and not many signs of fog developing. A
couple of models show some patchy fog developing over the James
River Valley along a bit of warm air moving into the area in front
of a cold front moving in during the morning. However, other models
do not show this fog developing. If fog does develop in the
James River Valley, it will reduce visibilities slightly, but
the visibilities will most likely stay above one mile. The warm
air moving in overnight and high surface pressure over SD today
will help to warm the temperatures to be 10- 20 degrees warmer
than normal, even with some cooler air advecting in behind a
cold front moving through this morning. This cooler air will
help to cool temperatures on Tuesday to be only 10-15 degrees
warmer than normal.

Tuesday evening into Wednesday, an upper-level shortwave will travel
along northwesterly flow aloft over SD. This shortwave will help to
support a surface low pressure that is moving over SD during that
time. Some models have shifted the track of the low over SD to the
southwest compared to previous model runs where the low was over ND
then moving over MN. This has caused the precipitation chances to be
shifted to the west. Other models have continued to keep the low
track from ND over northeastern SD into MN, which keeps
precipitation chances over far northeastern SD and west central MN
Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. Because of the variability
in the models, there is lower confidence in precipitation chances,
with a 15-25% chance for scattered rain showers to move over
portions of north central and northeastern SD Tuesday evening into
the early overnight hours. There will not be a lot of rainfall from
the rain showers, with a 15-45% chance for 0.01in of rain to fall
over portions of north central and northeastern SD and a 0-10%
chance for 0.1 inch of rainfall over far northeastern SD and west
central MN.

Behind the low pressure, the upper-level flow will become northerly
as some higher surface pressure moves starts to build in Thursday
and Friday. The northerly flow will push colder air in Wednesday
through Friday, keeping temperatures around normal for this time of
the year. Highs will be in the mid 30s to 40s on Thursday because of
this. The flow will become southerly during the weekend, which will
help to push warmer than average temperatures back in.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 534 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will prevail. The only aviation concern will be
low level wind shear (LLWS) through ~15Z. Warm air advection
ahead of a surface trough will not only allow for a very stable
air mass, but also a westerly component surface wind under 2 KM
northwest winds gusting to 25-35 KTS. By late afternoon winds
will be uniformly northwest through the lowest 2 KM and wind
shear will no longer be a concern.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Serr
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...Serr