676
FXUS63 KABR 082324 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
624 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather remains posted
mainly for tonight into early Sunday. Large to very large hail of 1-
2+ inches and damaging wind gusts of 60 mph will be the main threats.

- A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) to a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for
severe weather has been posted for Sunday and Sunday night. Large
hail up to golfball size and damaging winds of 60-70 mph will be the
main threats.

- Wildfire smoke aloft is expected to persist the next several days,
however there is little potential for the smoke at the surface.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Had a line of showers and thunderstorms develop just to the east
of Aberdeen earlier. These storms are over Grant and Deuel
county and continue to quickly move east. Added in some pops to
account for radar trends. Currently watching storms develop
along the Missouri River on the ND side. Nothing has been severe
so far, but the potential remains for strong to severe storms to
develop, especially later tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Sfc high pressure remains centered across southern MN/northern IA
this afternoon while an expansive area of low pressure sits over the
Dakotas/MT/WY border region. Southerly flow has returned a warm and
more moist air mass into our region today with afternoon dew point
temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s. An ACCAS field continues
to drift northeast across parts of central and northeast SD this
afternoon but so far it remains dry underneath this feature. There
were some hints that this warm advection regime setting up would
touch off an isolated shower or storm this afternoon across
northeast SD, particularly the Big Sioux Valley area. It remains a
minor mention in the forecast but confidence it low as most CAMs are
not showing anything occurring.

Conditions more favorable for convection will become more evident
later tonight into early Sunday as the sfc low drifts southeast and
meets up with a southward sagging frontal boundary coming out of ND
into northern SD. Broad northwest flow aloft will remain persistent
that could include passage of some mid level energy. A nocturnal low
level jet will interact with moderate to strong CAPE and steep low-
mid level lapse rates along with strong deep layer shear to kick off
thunderstorm activity. CAMs seem to focus initiation ND tonight and
then track the activity south and east through our CWA. This could
occur as early as mid to late evening but our better window for
severe weather looks to be after midnight. Given the favorable
parameters, very large hail up to 2 inches will be the main threat
along with damaging wind gusts of 60 mph. For now, a Marginal Risk
(1 of 5) for severe weather remains posted for most of the CWA.
Whatever comes of the overnight convection, guidance progs it to
shift out of our area by mid morning leaving us with a mainly dry,
warm and humid day with highs expected to reach the low to mid 80s.

We`ll repeat the same setup again by Sunday night into Monday.
Northwest flow aloft will persist as sfc winds veer east to
southeast heading into Monday. Warm advection returning should help
recover the atmosphere back into a favorable environment for
convection by the end of the day through Sunday night. Moderate to
strong instability and strong deep layer shear will help contribute
to the development of convection Sunday evening into early Monday
morning. A nocturnal low level jet across western/central SD will
help to maintain activity through the overnight. Initial threats
will be large hail perhaps up to golfball size. However, with time a
damaging wind threat could become the main threat if an MCS is able
to develop and track southeast across parts of the forecast area. A
Marginal Risk (1 of 5) for severe weather covers most of the area
with a Slight Risk (2 of 5) for severe weather has been posted for
parts of central/northeast SD.

An active pattern is expected to spill over into the early portion
of the new week. More convection will be possible by late Monday
into early Tuesday as the set up remains mostly unchanged with a
disturbance working into the western Dakotas. Some storms could be
strong to severe across mainly western and central SD Monday night.
Wildfire smoke will remain prevalent across the region for the next
couple days. HRRR vertically integrated smoke product shows moderate
to high concentrations of smoke in the upper layers of the atmosphere
will persist into Monday. Some good news on this front is that it
appear most of this smoke will stay aloft and not affect sfc
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Sunday afternoon
except in the vicinity of any thunderstorms.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...20
DISCUSSION...Vipond
AVIATION...20