056
FXUS63 KABR 311447 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
947 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Once lingering showers move out this morning, expect a dry
  forecast through the weekend.

- Temperatures into the upper 90s to low 100s return over parts
  of central and north central South Dakota this weekend.
  Temperatures are set to cool down to below normal by the
  middle of next week.

- Above normal temperatures and strong southerly wind gusts
  will combine to create elevated fire weather concerns over
  central and north central South Dakota this weekend,
  particularly on Sunday when gusts reach as high as 30-40 miles
  per hour.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 942 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Light to moderate rain continues to fall over far eastern SD and
western MN on the backside of the low currently hovering over
southern MN along with its shortwave. This system will continue
to track southeast through the day with rain ending over the far
eastern CWA later on this afternoon. Allowed the FA.W that was
over portions of Day/Roberts Counties through Big Stone/Traverse
Counties to expire as the flooding and heavy rain threat has
diminished. Will be expiring the other FA.W over portions of
Day and Lyman to at the top of the hour. Otherwise, lower
stratus continues mainly east of the Mo River. As this system
tracks away from the region, skies will clear west to east
through this evening. Ongoing smoke aloft will continue to
create a haze in the sky. Other than updating pops per radar and
cloud cover, forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 630 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Some light rain showers linger over northeastern South Dakota and
western Minnesota this morning. Storms yesterday produced a fairly
extensive swath of 4"-6" in total precipitation (as of roughly 07Z)
and MRMS estimates indicate that some localized areas may have
received as much as 6"-8". While lingering showers are expected
to be fairly light in terms of rain rate, another 0.5"-1" of
rain may fall through the morning hours today. Flooding concerns
will remain where showers last this morning.

An upper-level trough will deepen over the eastern CONUS over the
next couple of days, which will shift the upper-level ridge axis
over the region to become more positively tilted. The resulting
pattern leads to a thermal gradient over the forecast area over
the weekend. Highs will range from slightly below normal (low
80s) east of the James River increasing to the 90s to perhaps
low 100s west of the Missouri River. Strong southerly winds from
a low-level jet will also be present this weekend. Saturday`s
winds will be a touch lower and more localized than Sunday`s
winds, gusting up to 20 to 30 miles per hour along and west of
the Missouri River. Coverage will expand Sunday afternoon, with
gusts of 30 to 40 miles per hour possible everywhere along and
west of the James River Valley. These winds combined with the
aforementioned heat will create some elevated fire weather
concerns over central and north central South Dakota,
particularly on Sunday. With this latest forecast, the Grassland
Fire Danger will reach High to Very High that day for counties
along the Missouri River. Non-zero chance for a Red Flag
Warning, but will likely be highly dependent upon temperatures.

The next chances for rain come early next week due to the
development of an upper-level trough and associated jet streak
moving over the region. This setup will bring a cold front across
the region, along which showers and storms may develop. There is
still a bit of uncertainty on the timing, but confidence is
increasing in the Monday evening to overnight Tuesday time frame
having the best chances for rain (mainly across northeastern South
Dakota and western Minnesota). While still a bit far out to delve
into the specifics of a potential severe weather threat, but mid-
range model guidance continues to show probabilities of severe
weather consistent with a Marginal Risk.

Behind the cold front, expect a brief cooldown in temperatures.
Tuesday`s and Wednesday`s highs look to be about 5-10 degrees below
normal for a change, generally in the 70s across the board both
days. Beyond that point uncertainty grows drastically, but there are
some signals for a warmup back to at least near-normal for the end
of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 630 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Patches of MVFR/IFR CIGs across the region through the morning
hours, affecting KABR/KATY the most. Also still dealing with
areas of -RA/RA over the KATY region, with perhaps brief MVFR
VSBY in any heavier shower that may develop. Conditions are
forecast to trend VFR across the region later today.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MMM
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...TMT