031
FXUS63 KABR 231118 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
618 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty southerly winds between 30-45 mph today will continue to
  draw in an abnormally warm air mass with temperature readings
  20-25 degrees above normal potentially setting new records.

- The combination of the warm and dry conditions with the strong
  winds will lead to elevated fire weather concerns today.

- A cold front will move through the region tonight ushering in
  noticeably cooler air on gusty northwest winds of 30-45 mph
  late tonight through Saturday morning.

- Rain chances will remain fairly low across the area the today into
  Saturday. However, a more organized system is expected to move
  into the region by the end of the weekend into early next week
  delivering a 50-90 percent chance of precipitation.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 610 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Updated discussion for the 12Z TAFS below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

After several days of dry conditions and above normal temperatures,
a change in the pattern is nearly upon us in the near term portion
of the forecast period. However, we will squeeze out one more day of
much above normal temperatures on gusty southerly winds today. After
today, a cold front will sweep through the region and usher in
noticeably cooler temperatures along with increasing opportunities
for precipitation.

The upper flow pattern will feature southwest flow aloft across the
Northern Plains today through early next week as an upper trough
works across the Great Basin into the Rockies the next few days.
This disturbance is progged to push out into the Plains and Midwest
early next week as the pattern resets with a persistent upper trough
across the Western CONUS by mid to late next week.

A tightening pressure gradient across the region will set up today
as sfc high pressure drifts east across the Great Lakes and sfc low
pressure and associated frontal boundaries pull east of the Northern
High Plains into the western Dakotas. A sfc warm front on
conjunction with some weak mid level energy will track northeast
across SD today touching off some sprinkles and light rain across
portions of northeast SD into west central MN. Southerly winds will
gust mostly between 30-40 mph with a few locations perhaps topping
out around 45 mph. 0.5 km wind progs set up a corridor of 30-45 knot
winds across our eastern zones during peak heating today. 925 mph
thermal progs range between +15C to +25C with the warmest readings
concentrated across parts of central and south central SD. Thinking
our western zones see more sunshine today versus our east. These
warm temperatures in combination with the strong winds and dry
conditions in place will lead to elevated fire concerns across most
of the forecast area. High to very high grassland fire danger will
be present today due to the mainly the strong winds. Min RH values
bottom out between 30-40 percent this afternoon, so Red Flag
conditions are not expected to develop.

The aforementioned low pressure system will track eastward tonight
along with an associated cold front. This front is progged to track
west to east across the forecast area late tonight through early
Saturday morning. A few scattered light rain showers could accompany
this fropa but the more noticeable change with the increasing
northwest wind driving in a much cooler air mass. Winds are progged
to gust between 30-45 mph tonight through Saturday morning with the
strongest winds setting up across central SD. Probabilities of
seeing wind gusts reach or exceed wind advisory criteria or 45 mph
range between 60-90 percent across portions of central SD and West
River. Winds will begin to diminish as early as Saturday afternoon
and sfc high pressure builds in. Saturday morning`s cold air
advection pattern will drive a more seasonal air mass into the
region with daytime highs mainly in the 50s to low 60s through the
weekend. Guidance progs another shot of mid level shortwave energy
will rotate into the region late this weekend into early next week
as an upper trough works out of the Rockies into the
Northern/Central Plains. This disturbance is still expected to
deliver our next best widespread rain chances between 50-90 percent.
Current probabilities of rainfall up to a half in or more range
between 30-50 percent across our forecast area. The highest probs
are concentrated across parts of south central SD northeast and east
into parts of the James and Big Sioux Valleys.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 610 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR cigs are forecast through the TAF period. Low Level Wind
Shear (LLWS) is still a threat through the late morning at KATY
and possibility affecting KABR. LLWS returns over northeastern
SD (affecting KABR/KATY) this evening through early Saturday
morning and are mentioned in the TAFs. Otherwise light rain
showers are possible east of the James River mid morning through
the afternoon and an isolated chance for light rain over KPIR
overnight for a couple hours. Light rain associated with a cold
front returns for KATY after 06Z through the end of the TAF
period. Southerly surface wind gusts from 25 to 35 kts are
expected to develop across the region by mid/late morning and
persist through the late afternoon.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MMM
DISCUSSION...Vipond
AVIATION...MMM