757
FXUS63 KABR 151924
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
124 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog could develop over portions of north central South Dakota
  by late tonight, persisting for a few hours after sunrise
  Monday morning.

- Dry with temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above normal through
  mid-week.

- South winds gusting up to 30 to 40 mph across mainly central
  and northeast South Dakota through Tuesday. Locally higher
  gust potential in downslope favored areas east of the Sisseton
  hills tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 120 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

At 1 PM CST, under a sunny/mostly sunny sky, temperatures are
warming through the 50s, heading for the low 60s across portions of
central and south central South Dakota. Winds are out of the south
at 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

While 35 to 50 mph downslope wind gusts develop this evening and
overnight in the lee-of-the-Prairie-Coteau, surface low pressure
troffing that moves into north central South Dakota should knock
winds down to light and variable. With little to no significant
cloud cover streaming over this area tonight/Monday morning,
expecting (patchy to areas of) fog coverage across north central
South Dakota by sunrise Monday morning.

Not a whole lot of change in the overall forecast steering flow
pattern during this seven day stretch. Upper level ridging over the
middle of the CONUS appears to be interrupted a couple of times by
low pressure systems working in off the west coast. The first system
is progged to track from the central Rockies up through western
South Dakota into North Dakota and Minnesota, keeping most of the
precipitation potential north/west of the CWA Wednesday
night/Thursday. The second system is still progged to impact the CWA
mainly Friday night (50-70% chance of measurable) through Saturday.

Plenty of warm air remains in place across the region on these 15 to
30 mph southerly winds through Tuesday. Right now, low temperatures
Monday night and Tuesday night could end up tie-ing or breaking
records for warmth. Wednesday is probably also fairly warm,
although, a wind shift to west-northwest winds is progged for
Wednesday into Wednesday night. Cooler temperatures, closer to
November climate normals, are then progged for the rest of the week
into the weekend.

With each passing day that winds are gusting in excess of 25 mph and
fine fuels are dry/cured, the Grassland Fire Danger is expected to
be elevated; probably holding in that moderate to high
category/range. Will have to keep a close watch on relative humidity
forecasts through Tuesday, as a drop in humidity of just 20 to 30
percent could result in an increase in Grassland Fire Danger to
greater than the "high" category.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1140 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period, except for a
few hours around sunrise Monday at Mobridge (fog). South to
southeast winds 10-20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots will
continue. The exception is at KMBG, where winds are expected to
decouple/become light and variable later tonight, allowing for
the potential for fog. Also, there are a couple of hours of low
level wind shear potential this evening, mainly at KATY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...10