802
FXUS63 KABR 181434
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
834 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow mainly east of the Missouri River will slowly diminish this
  afternoon. The highest additional snowfall amounts through today of
  2 to 4 inches is expected over portions of Brown, Spink, Clark,
  and Day Counties.

- Strong winds gusting between 45 and 65 miles per hour will only
  slowly diminish this afternoon. Blizzard Warning or High Wind
  Warnings are in effect for the highest winds across much of
  northern to northeastern South Dakota.

- Very High Grassland Fire Danger Index values are in place today
  across Stanley, Hughes, Jones, Lyman, and Buffalo Counties. This
  is where only limited rain fell yesterday, and little to no
  precipitation is expected today.

- The combination of strong winds and falling snow will reduce
  visibility in falling and blowing snow over portions of north
  central and northeastern South Dakota, down to a half to a
  quarter of a mile at times through at least this morning. A
  portion of the forecast area has been upgraded to a Blizzard
  Warning, with a Winter Weather Advisory remaining in effect
  across the rest of north central into northeast South Dakota.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 834 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Snowfall amounts were increased over McPherson/Edmunds/Brown/Spink
and Clark Counties to account for the steady snow continuing this
morning. Given the stronger than expected winds, with the surface
low farther south, the Wind Advisory was replaced with a High Wind
Warning for much of the I-29 corridor into early this afternoon.

UPDATE Issued at 523 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

As the TROWAL developed this morning and sat down over portions of
north central and northeast South Dakota, and low level CAA
wrapping into the region from the west-northwest, rain changed
over to snow as the wind increased. Reports of white-out
conditions under the TROWAL-forced snowfall area(s) have been
trickling in, along with wind gusts throughout central, north
central and northeast South Dakota between 45 to 65 mph. Initial
headlines with this morning`s forecast have been upgraded to a
High Wind Warning and a Blizzard warning, accordingly.

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 120 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Keeping a close eye on wind observations early this morning as the
low pressure center makes its way in. Seeing some isolated, brief
gusts up above 55 mph along the frontal boundary, but for the most
part gusts remain between 45-50 mph. This is in line with the
expectations from the Wind Advisory currently in effect for all
South Dakota counties, which is set to expire by 18Z this afternoon.
Observations are also indicating that mainly rain is falling early
this morning, and temperatures are expected to remain warm enough
overnight to continue that trend out ahead of the front.

Still anticipating a transition from rain to snow later this morning
as the front passes through the area and temperatures drop. Snow is
mainly expected to stay over northeastern South Dakota into western
Minnesota, with central and north central South Dakota remaining dry
after this initial rain push overnight. A southerly shift in high-
resolution model guidance has significantly increased the amount of
snow that is expected once the transition occurs. What was once a
forecast of less than one inch across northeast SD/western MN now
sits at up to 2" from Brown county and east. Portions of Day and
Marshall counties may see even higher, up to 4" in total through the
event. The additional factor that needs to be considered with this
system is that during the time frame when the heaviest expected
snowfall will be (this morning between 6 am and noon central), the
area will be hanging on to the strong northwesterly winds mentioned
above that have prompted the Wind Advisory. Therefore, falling snow
will combine with these winds to reduce visibilities, at times less
than half a mile. Due to these visibility reductions and the
increased snowfall totals, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued
for parts of northeastern South Dakota (Brown County and east) as
well as western Minnesota from 12Z through 21Z. Consideration was
given to a Blizzard Warning, but confidence was not quite high
enough in the consistency or longevity of snowfall rates sufficient
to cause extended visibility reductions of a quarter mile or less,
particularly with no snow currently on the ground. However,
conditions remain borderline, and it would not be entirely
surprising to see some areas reach that quarter mile visibility at
some point this morning.

Shifting focus to central South Dakota today, low post-frontal dew
points (down into the low double digits by the afternoon) will once
again facilitate afternoon humidity values between 20-30%, with the
lowest located over Jones and Lyman counties. This combined with the
strong winds may cause some elevated fire weather concerns over that
area this afternoon. However, winds are set to decrease this
afternoon through this evening, meaning that the strongest winds
will not line up with the lowest humidity. It will depend a little
bit upon how long the winds are able to hang on, but at this time
Red Flag conditions are not anticipated today despite the elevated
concerns.

Looking to Thursday, previous forecasts had focused on the potential
for a band of snow over parts of central South Dakota. Latest model
guidance indicates that this band has shifted south, nearly out of
the forecast area entirely. As it stands now, only a couple of
tenths of snow is expected, and if this southerly trend continues
central South Dakota will remain dry. There is some signal for some
light snow over northeastern South Dakota on Thursday lingering from
the departing low pressure center, but little to no accumulation is
expected in that area on Thursday at this point.

After these precipitation systems move out of the area, the new
upper-level pattern of a trough over the western CONUS will lead to
normal to slightly below normal temperatures for mid-February
through the weekend. Pattern will begin to shift once again early
next week, increasing temperatures to slightly above normal. At this
time, dry conditions are expected through the weekend, and there are
no systems beyond this weekend that are worth diving into just yet.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 523 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

KPIR is VFR and is forecast to remain VFR through the TAF valid
period. Strong west-northwest winds of 20 to 35 knots with gusts
up to 50 knots is forecast to persist through early afternoon
before diminishing.

KMBG is VFR with a little bit of remaining falling snow tapering
off this morning. Dry VFR is forecast to persist through the TAF
valid period. Strong west-northwest winds of 20 to 35 knots with
gusts up to 50 knots is forecast to persist through early
afternoon before diminishing.

KABR/KATY are IFR/LIFR with light to moderate falling snow
continuing for several more hours before tapering off by mid-day.
Strong west-northwest winds of 25 to 40 knots with gusts up to 55
knots combined with falling snow is forecast to produce lowered
visibility in blowing snow through mid-day when the falling snow
tapers off. During the afternoon into early evening hours,
VFR/MVFR conditions are forecast to linger at KABR/KATY as winds
gradually diminish.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for SDZ003-007-
     011.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for SDZ007-
     008-020>023.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for SDZ003.

     Blizzard Warning until 3 PM CST this afternoon for SDZ004>006-
     009>011-017>019.

     High Wind Warning until 2 PM CST this afternoon for SDZ008-
     020>023.

     High Wind Warning until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for SDZ015-
     016-033>037-045-048-051.

MN...Wind Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ039-046.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for MNZ039-
     046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...10