698
FXUS63 KABR 260516 AAD
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1116 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below normal temperatures will continue through the beginning of
  December. Below zero wind chills are possible over northern SD
  each morning Thursday through Sunday. Wind chills will fall into
  the teens to near 20 below zero Sunday, Monday and Tuesday
  mornings.

- Friday through early Saturday morning has a 55-75% chance of
  snow with a 45-65% chance of more than 2 inches for the
  northeast third of SD. The heaviest snowfall is expected Friday
  afternoon through sunrise Saturday morning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1113 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

The worst of the system has exited this evening. All headlines
have now ended.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 247 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

As of 230pm, current radar indicates the moderate to heavy snow
within the wrap around/trowal extending from Brown/Spink Counties
and eastward through west central MN. Current temperatures range in
the upper 20s into the lower 30s with wind gusts ranging from 30 to
near 60mph. We have been dealing with visibilities as low as a
fourth of a mile or less at times over portions of north central and
northeastern SD due to this heavy snow band/blowing snow. CAMs are
consistent on the wrap around snow continuing to push eastward with
the last of snow exiting western MN by ~05Z or so. An additional
3 to 6 inches of snow is possible, mainly east of the James River
(highest over the Coteau), with the snow coming to an end this
evening.

With the CAA and tight pressure gradients, northwest winds will
continue to be high, with gusts of 30 to near 60 mph, highest James
River Valley and eastward through this evening. The combination of
falling snow and winds will continue to lead to widespread blowing
snow/blizzard conditions especially over the Coteau and eastward
into MN through this evening. Through the overnight, gusts of
30-45 mph are possible over and east of the Coteau. As this system
departs, high pressure will filter in from the west and over the
region Wednesday through Thursday with dry conditions expected.
Winds at this time will still be a bit breezy Wednesday between
the exiting low and incoming high but will diminish west to east
Wednesday afternoon and evening across the CWA.

With the colder air moving in behind the low and incoming high,
temperatures will drop into the mid to upper teens to lower 20s.
Wind chills in the single digits. Highs for Wednesday will only be
in the 20s to the lower 30s (near to about 5 degree below average)
with wind chills in the teens and 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 247 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

The main story for the long term is the Friday/Saturday snow. Models
are in much better agreement on the track and timing of a mid level
low moving across central SD. This low moves into north central SD
Friday afternoon and moves southeast into central SD before turning
more easterly and into southern MN by Saturday afternoon. With this
increased agreement among the models comes a bit more certainty on
snowfall amounts. The NBM is now showing a 45 to 65% chance of more
than 2 inches of snow along and northeast of a line from Mobridge to
Mitchell. This is a marked increase from yesterday. The chance for
more than 4 inches is around 30 to 40% along a line from Ipswich to
Clark. Overall, ensemble plumes are in pretty good agreement for
around 2-3 inches of snow. The highest chance of snowfall looks to
be between 55 and 75% Friday afternoon through early Saturday
morning.

Temperatures for the period are expected to be much colder than the
past couple weeks, at 10 to 15 degrees below average. Sunday and
Monday look to be the coldest, approaching 20 degrees below average.
Past the end of the period there look to be hints of some warmer
weather, although this is far from certain. With the low on Friday,
we have a chance for some 35 to 45 mph gusts, mainly along and east
of the James River, Friday afternoon and evening. This will reduce
visibilities significantly in areas of falling snow. Of course, this
will change if the track of the low changes. The NBM is a little on
the low side with gusts right now, so this may need to be bumped up
in the next couple days. The rest of the period looks to be in our
normal 20 to 25 mph gust range.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1113 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

MVFR conditions will improve to VFR on Wednesday as skies clear
from west to east.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...20
SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...20