451
FXUS63 KABR 040217 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
817 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal high temperatures to continue through Monday.
  Wednesday and Thursday will be the warmest, around 20 degrees
  above normal, with highs in the 50s and 60s.

- There is a 40-60% chance of precipitation Thursday night into
  Friday night, with most of the precipitation falling Friday
  afternoon into Friday night as light rain transitions to a
  wintry mix of rain, snow, or freezing rain, and then to all snow
  late Friday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 815 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Starting to see fog develop over the past hour in KATY and
portions of the Glacial Lakes region, as well as patches here and
there across the eastern CWA. Moved up start time of fog potential
a few hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

At 19Z the surface weather map showed a weak low over northeastern
MN with a stationary front draped over northern MN and southern SD.
The weak surface ridge over our forecast area will continue to
slowly weaken and sink south through tonight. Snow is rapidly
melting with the dewpoints in the 30s and temperatures in the 40s
and 50s this afternoon. The maximum snow depth reported yesterday
morning by our cooperative observers was 5-6" from near Westport
through Clark and Watertown. This morning those values had fallen
generally to 2" or less.

Southerly winds return Wednesday, ahead of the area of low pressure
to our north and northwest. Winds Wednesday afternoon will be out of
the south, with gusts of 20 to 30 mph, with the strongest winds
across the Prairie Coteau of northeastern South Dakota.

The area of low pressure Wednesday night over WY/MT will dive south,
with a broad area of low pressure organizing over eastern CO
Thursday afternoon. A trough will already extend north across
central to northeastern SD Thursday afternoon. Warm air still in
place should result in all rain Thursday night into Friday morning.

We`ll be monitoring the evolving track of the surface low with each
model run, whether the low crosses southeastern SD (12Z GFS) or
stays mainly across southeastern NE and IA from 18Z Friday through
03Z Saturday. Given the significant uncertainty in the exact
track/strength of the area of low pressure, confidence is low of
specific precipitation types and amounts. We`ll continue to post
social media graphics to highlight this time period of concern.
Adding to a wintry mix of precipitation, we also have thunderstorms
over our southern counties (SPC Severe Weather Outlook with general
thunderstorms). The higher chance of thunderstorms will remain near
and south of the surface low.

Overall, light rain Thursday night will mix with and change over to
freezing rain or snow Friday into Friday evening (all snow by 06Z
Saturday). Snow to liquid ratios are around 7:1 or lower, with any
snow that falls being more of the wetter/more dense variety. There
is around a 50% chance of 1" of snow across the forecast area
(slightly less over north central SD), and a 40% chance of freezing
rain across and east of the Prairie Coteau of northeastern South
Dakota. Drizzle or freezing drizzle may be more likely, and we`ll
continue to fine-tune the specifics over the next few days.

After the exiting low, dry weather is mainly forecast through
Monday, along with another falling temperature trend, with highs
mainly in the 30s (near normal for this time of year) by next
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 525 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

FG/BR potential exists again this evening/tonight, mainly at
KABR/KATY, with much less potential over KMBG/KPIR. IFR VSBY
possible with the fog. Cannot rule out some IFR CIGs across
KABR/KATY in conjunction with the FG/BR.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...TMT