431
FXUS63 KABR 271719 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1219 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for rain return overnight Thursday continuing through
Friday, with the best chances coming Friday evening. A Marginal Risk
(level 1 out of 5) for severe weather is in place. Hail and wind
will be the main severe hazards.

- Near normal temperatures are expected through the weekend, with
highs in the 80s expected.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Aviation discussion below has been updated in accordance with
the 18Z TAF issuance.

UPDATE Issued at 930 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Forecast remains on track and no adjustments to the forecast are
needed this morning. Fog has burned off as expected this
morning, and visibilities across northeastern South Dakota are
back up. Expect fair weather conditions for the rest of the day
today, with the one possible exception (5-10% chance at most)
being a stray weak rain shower west of the Missouri River.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 111 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

As of 1 AM CDT, temperatures across the region are in the upper 50s
to low 60s with relatively calm winds out of the northwest to north.
High pressure is in place again today with a low off to our west.
The daylight hours today will be dry, and there is a slight chance
of some showers/storms after midnight. These precipitation chances
increase to about 25-30% after sunrise and last through the
afternoon. Chances increase again to 50-75% Friday evening mainly
east of the Missouri River as the low off to our west moves into the
region. There is a Marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe
storms east of the MO river. Hazards will be 1 inch hail and 60 mph
wind gusts. This low will continue to move slowly across the area
Saturday, finally exiting the region late Sunday. Precipitation
chances remain during this time frame. Monday looks to be dry with
some slight chances for precipitation returning Tuesday through the
end of the forecast.

Temperatures continue the around average trend of the last several
days with highs generally in the high 70s to 80s, perhaps reaching
90 west river Friday and Saturday. There could be a slight haze
to the sky today and Friday as another round of elevated smoke
makes its way across the region. Winds with that incoming low
will be in the 25-35 mph range Friday afternoon mainly in
central SD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions expected today, as mainly clear skies will be present
today. There may be occasional development of diurnal cumulus, but
the areal extent of those clouds is not expected to be large, and
are not expected to drop ceilings to MVFR levels. Winds continue to
turn to be out of the southeast through the day today and into the
overnight period, gusting as high as 20 to 25 knots overnight
tonight over central and north central South Dakota, expanding to
the entire forecast area by Friday morning. While conditions are
expected to be dry through the TAF period, chances for rain return
Friday afternoon and evening, with the potential for severe
thunderstorms Friday evening into the early overnight period Friday
night.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BC
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...BC