979
FXUS63 KABR 310211 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
911 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered rain showers move over the area this evening into
  Saturday. Rain rates are generally expected to be light, but
  the strongest showers may put out around a tenth of an inch of
  rain, particularly over northeastern South Dakota.

- More widespread, heavier rainfall is expected Monday through
  Tuesday as a low pressure center moves into the Plains. While
  there is low confidence in amounts at this time, the chance
  to see an inch of rain ranges from 50 to 80 percent,
  increasing from west to east across the forecast area.

- Winds turn northwesterly and increase on the back side of the
  low pressure center Monday afternoon. Wind gusts upwards of
  45 miles per hour will be possible along and west of the
  Missouri River.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 904 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

The low/mid clouds are surging northward, on schedule. Just
waiting for the synoptic scale lift and forcing in mid/upper
level WAA to show up and get the isolated/scattered coverage of
rain showers going across central into northeast South Dakota.
Will be interesting to see if fog forms out over/west of the
Missouri River valley region later tonight into Saturday
morning, where little to no rainfall is expected. Guidance has
some reduced visibility out across said area late tonight. No
changes planned to the tonight period forecast at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 640 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Scattered rain showers move into the area later this evening and
into tonight. Coverage begins over central South Dakota before
expanding to the rest of the forecast area during the overnight
period. Generally expecting rain rates to remain fairly light
overall, but under the strongest showers, around a tenth of an inch
may fall in total (roughly a 25-45% chance over parts of
northeastern South Dakota).

With an upper-level ridge overhead, above normal temperatures can be
expected for the next couple of days. Highs in the 50s to low 60s
are about 5-10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Low
temperatures are also expected to stay well above freezing through
the weekend. The upper-level pattern will shift at the start of next
week, and an upper-level trough will move overhead. This will push
temperatures back down closer to normal (highs in the low 50s to
upper 40s) for mid to late next week, as well as bring back chances
for freezing temperatures during the overnights.

With the coming pattern change, a Colorado Low is set to move into
the region early next week, bringing another round of rainfall to
the region. Rainfall totals over the last 24 hours of model runs
have continued to trend upwards. The footprint of the area of
heaviest rainfall has also shifted, now located firmly over
northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota. In that area,
ensemble median rainfall totals through Wednesday morning are up to
2". While the GEFS and NBM have their highest rainfall totals over
parts of the Aberdeen forecast area, the Euro ensemble favors a more
easterly track of the low, which would lead to a slight decrease in
the precipitation potential should that scenario pan out (medians
around 1.5"). In either scenario, rainfall totals decrease moving to
the west. As the low pressure center moves in and tracks north,
winds will turn northwesterly and increase thanks to the tightening
pressure gradient. The strongest gusts are expected along and west
of the Missouri River Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning,
where gusts have a 30-60% chance to hit Wind Advisory criteria of 45
miles per hour or higher.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 640 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Main aviation concern with overnight rain showers will be timing
the onset of sub-VFR cigs and periodic visby reductions under
the heaviest of rain showers. MVFR cigs have already made it
into KATY, and it probably won`t be long before it`s into KPIR
and KABR. Tried to limit the amount of PROB30 mention to rain
shower onset and the KPIR/KMBG terminals where lesser coverage
of rain showers is expected. Even though the rain is forecast to
end between late morning and late afternoon on Saturday, sub-VFR low
clouds and perhaps a few pockets of fog/drizzle are expected to
persist through the end of the TAF valid period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...10