170
FXUS63 KABR 260815 CCA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
315 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of scattered severe
  storms to develop or move over northeastern South Dakota and
  west central Minnesota this afternoon into the night. These
  storms could produce locally damaging wind gusts.

- Today could see highs reaching or exceeding the 90F degree mark (15
  to 20 degrees above normal). Record warm temperatures could be
  tied or broken in some places today. The rest of the week should
  see highs in the 80s.

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorm chances (20-40 percent
  chances) during the evening and overnight exist from Friday
  through Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 136 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

A low level jet has set up over northern NE and southern SD early
this morning. This jet will help isolated to scattered storms and
showers to continue to develop and move through southern SD and
potentially develop into east central SD through the mid morning.

Through the day, an upper-level ridge will be building over SD as an
upper-level trough and low develops to the west. With the ridge
sitting over the state, warm air will be moving in. This warm air
will get today`s high temperatures up into the upper 80s to mid 90s,
which could tie or surpass record warm temperatures in some areas.
With these warm temperatures, some moisture in northeastern SD and
west central MN, a fair bit of instability, and a frontal boundary
trying to move into northeastern SD, storms and showers could pop up
this afternoon into the overnight hours over northeastern SD and
west central MN. While there is limited deep-layer shear over this
area that could limit severe potential, there is a marginal risk
(level 1 of 5) for severe storms to form. With some steeping lapse
rates, there could be locally damaging wind gusts from the
storms.

Through the day into the evening, the low level jet will be moving
and developing over western and parts of central SD along the edge
of a surface trough located over the Rockies. This trough and low
level jet will be sitting there into the weekend, and will help to
get stronger winds to the surface during the afternoons, mainly for
areas west of the Missouri River. Wind gusts this afternoon and the
following afternoons could get up to 35 mph at times. These winds,
in addition to the lower relative humidity values (below 20
percent), will create some elevated fire weather concerns in Jones
and Lyman county this afternoon. Because fuels have greened up and
with the rain from the end of last week, we are holding off on
issuing any fire weather products even though the winds and relative
humidity values reach Red Flag Criteria.

In combination with the low level jet that will sit over western and
central SD through the rest of the week, moisture and some
instability will move into that area. This will help with scattered
shower and storm development during the afternoons and evenings in
the latter half of the week into the weekend. There is currently a
20-40% chance of showers and storms west of the James River Valley
during this time. Temperatures will cool slightly Thursday onward,
though they will still be 10 to 15 degrees warmer than normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. There is a
low chance (10-20%) for a SHRA/TSRA during the afternoon hours
across northeast SD (KABR/KATY). But, with low confidence on
coverage, will leave mention out of TAFs at this time. Low-level
wind shear (LLWS) is forecast during the early morning hours
over KPIR and inserted mention of this in the TAF.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...TMT