454
FXUS63 KABR 180222 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
922 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat and humidity return to the region Sunday and Monday with
  highs in the 90s to low 100s, and heat indices from 95 to 105
  degrees. Highest heat index expected on Sunday.

- The next chances for precipitation will be development along
  a cold front moving through the area on Sunday night. Can`t
  entirely rule out severe weather, but confidence is low at
  this time.

- Temperatures look to return to normal to perhaps just below
  normal by mid-week next week, with highs in the 80s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 915 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Weak convection along the White River has dissipated. Heat
Advisory has been allowed to expire at 02Z as temps/heat indices
continue to cool through the evening hours. Focus turns to smoke
overnight into Saturday across the eastern CWA. KATY has now
come down to 4SM, with KETH/KVVV remaining around 4SM as well.
Latest HRRR-smoke continues to show near-surface smoke potential
over the eastern CWA through tomorrow. Extended mention of this
in the grids for eastern areas tonight and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

A weak cold front is completing its passage over the CWA this
afternoon. While little is expected in terms of temperature
reduction behind the cold front, winds will shift to become
northerly to northeasterly behind the front. This shift may allow
some of the Canadian/Minnesota wildfire smoke to slide into the
region, particularly over northeastern South Dakota and western
Minnesota. Concentrations are not expected to be particularly high
(only around 8-12 um/m3 at the surface), but would represent an
increase from the current state and may have an impact on
temperatures by nudging things down a degree or two tomorrow.
Overall expect minimal health impacts from the smoke, as the Air
Quality Index over the region will remain at "Good" to "Moderate"
levels.

Above normal heat continues this afternoon, with a Heat Advisory in
effect through 9 PM CDT tonight for most of the area. The broad-
upper-level ridge in place will begin to flatten out over the
weekend. This combined with the northerly winds shutting off the
warm air advection will help decrease temperatures slightly
Saturday. Highs will briefly fall into the upper 80s to mid 90s
(increasing from east to west) Saturday afternoon. A high pressure
center passing to the north will flip winds back to southerly by
Sunday, returning the area to a warm air advection regime and
bringing highs back up into the upper 90s (potentially reaching
triple digits over central and north central South Dakota).

Another cold front moves through the area Sunday, with this one
having the potential to develop some scattered storms. There is
still some uncertainty on timing, but the best chances for
development appear to be Sunday night over northeastern South Dakota
and western Minnesota. Can`t quite rule out a potential severe
threat, although the best environment will be further north into
North Dakota and Minnesota. The main severe threat, should storms
develop, would be hail. Supporting this hail threat would be MUCPAE
of 1500-2500 J/kg, ~40 knots of shear, and mid-level lapse rates of
7-8 C/km.

Into next week, an upper-level trough deepens over the eastern
CONUS, subsequently enhancing the ridge over the western CONUS. This
will put the northern plains into the transition zone between the
two features, bringing cold air advection aloft to the area. This
setup helps to finally cool the area down, and highs by mid-week
next week will be near-normal to perhaps slightly below normal. In
terms of precipitation chances, little of note in the extended at
this time. Latest NBM runs call for some rain chances over parts of
central South Dakota mid-week, but the severe environment looks less
than impressive at this point, and would currently not expect much
out of anything that may develop.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are currently forecast through the TAF period.
Will be watching for smoke (FU) potential across KABR/KATY
tonight into Saturday, which could drop into MVFR VSBY, but
confidence in this is low/medium at this time.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...TMT