492
FXUS63 KABR 032316 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
616 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a very small Marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe
storms over far northeastern SD and west central MN this evening
into the early overnight hours. Confidence is low that we will have
storms in the area, however, if a storm does move into the area,
primary hazards will be 1 inch diameter hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

- Areas of fog are expected Friday morning over northeast SD into
west central MN with reductions in visibility potentially down to 2
miles or less.

- Our warming trend continues into the weekend, peaking at 15 to 20
degrees above normal Friday and Saturday. Highs in the upper 80s to
mid 90s are expected.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 607 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

No major changes are planned to the current forecast this
evening. There are a number of outflow boundaries moving through
off some convection in ND. These are ancillary to a dry line.
Southwest of the line, dewpoints have fallen into the 40s and
50s. North of Hwy 12 and east of the line, dewpoints in the 60s
have temporarily pushed heat indices up between 100 and 105
degrees. This should be short-lived as the boundaries continue
to push east.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

As of 12:30 pm CDT, temperatures around the area are in the 80s
to low 90s with winds out of the south to southwest. Winds will
move around to the northwest from west to east across the
forecast area this evening, becoming easterly by sunrise Friday
morning. While the threat has shifted north, there is still a
small portion of Roberts and Traverse counties in a Marginal
Risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe storms this evening. The vast
majority of ensembles and CAMs have the storms staying to our
north and east, however, so confidence is low that we will
actually see severe storms. If a storm does happen to clip our
area, hazards will be 60 mph winds and hail up to 1 inch. Some
fog is also expected early Friday morning with visibilities
dropping to around 2 miles in portions of northeast SD and west
central MN.

Friday into the weekend, an upper level ridge develops with its axis
over the forecast area. Several shortwaves will move along the ridge
bringing some chances for storms areas around and east of the James
River where moisture levels are higher. Deterministic models really
differ on the amount of instability in this area, ranging from about
1000 J/kg to over 2000 J/kg Saturday evening. However, most agree
that bulk shear is pretty marginal at less than 30 kts. Sunday
afternoon and evening, bulk shear is about the same but more of the
deterministic models show MLCAPE closer to 2000 J/kg. Due to the low
shear, no severe weather is expected at this time. A low pressure
system out of Montana late Sunday into Monday will bring more
widespread storm chances to the area, drawing moisture up from an
open Gulf. PWATs Monday afternoon are forecast to be in the 1.5 to
1.75" range or the 99.5 NAEFS percentiles. This could result in
heavy rainfall with the storms. These higher amounts remain in place
through the overnight hours and into Tuesday afternoon. Confidence
is low on severe potential at this time, but keep an eye on the SPC
outlooks once this time period moves into the Days 1-3 range.

The ridge mentioned previously will bring warmer air into the region
pushing temperatures 15-20 degrees above average Friday and
Saturday. Winds across far western portions of north central SD and
south central SD can expect wind gusts of 30-35 mph Friday
afternoon, but otherwise, winds will be unremarkable until Monday.
With the incoming low pressure, wind gusts Monday afternoon look to
be in the 30 to 35 mph range between the Missouri River and Prairie
Coteau of eastern SD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 607 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the next 24
hours. Can`t completely rule out some patchy fog early Friday
morning, but a drier air mass may prevent development.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...20
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...20