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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD
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356 FXUS63 KABR 302347 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 647 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and weak thunderstorms will continue through the weekend. Severe weather is not expected with this system, though cold air funnels are possible in the afternoon. Heavier rain or stationary storms may also pose an isolated flooding threat. - A cold front will move through on Tuesday, with a 20 to 40 percent chance of rain. The remainder of the week is expected to stay dry. - Below normal temperatures are expected for mid week. Highs will be in the upper 50s to mid 60, 10 to 20 degrees below normal. && .UPDATE... Issued at 635 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 See the updated aviation discussion below. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 221 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 No big changes to the last few forecast discussions. An upper level low continues to spin over central SD and churn up showers and thunderstorms. This system will linger through Sunday. The colder air aloft and weak daytime heating induced thunderstorms east of the upper low may generate some cold air funnels this afternoon and evening before the sun sets. Otherwise, no severe weather is anticipated. Localized flooding is the only other concern with prolonged rainfall over the same areas or short, intense bursts in thunderstorms over more saturated soils. If clouds scatter out a bit tonight or Sunday night, there may be a little morning fog around, but confidence is too low to pinpoint an area. Mentioned patchy/areas of fog based on forecast dewpoint depressions for now. Once this upper low meanders out of the region, a cold front swings through Tuesday bringing additional chances for showers and weak thunderstorms. It also ushers in fall-like temperatures for mid week with overnight lows possibly dipping into the 30s Wednesday night and daytime highs 10 to 20 degrees below climo norms for early September. Some areas east of the James Valley may not climb out of the 50s on Wednesday. Cooler temperatures continue for Thursday under northwest flow aloft as a strong upper low digs into the Great Lakes. Ridging over the Rockies may translate far enough east on Friday to allow for a little waa. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 635 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG A slow moving low pressure system is responsible for showers and isolated thunderstorms. The precipitation is more stratiform in and around the KPIR area causing fluctuations between MVFR/VFR CIGS. Further north, a little extra daytime heating has allowed for enough instability for a couple of strikes of lightning. Therefore, the KMBG TAF carries a TS mention for the next couple of hours, but will no longer be needed after the sunsets. Precip chances wane during the overnight hours, but fog chances increase toward sunrise, especially in the James Valley. The next TAF update will be able to provide more details on fog potential. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Serr DISCUSSION...20 AVIATION...Serr |
Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Aberdeen, SD (ABR) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)
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