283
FXUS63 KABR 141504 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
904 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry with temperatures through mid week running some 10 to 20
  degrees above normal.

- South winds on the increase, topping out around 30 to 40 mph
  west river today. The corridor of highest winds slowly shift
  east through Sunday/Monday/Tuesday, with peak winds around 25
  to 35 mph.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 857 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

No changes planned to the today period forecast. Still expecting
15 to 30 mph sustained south-southeast winds today throughout
and west of the Missouri River valley.

UPDATE Issued at 517 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Updated aviation discussion for the 12Z TAFs below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1220 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Not much going on for the next few days, with high pressure moving
to the east and setting up a gradient that waxes and wanes slightly
over the next few days, peaking around 18mb Today, and running around
12 to 14mb through Tuesday. The result is a stiff southerly breeze
and mild temperatures. The core of strongest winds shifts with the
gradient. Western and central/north central South Dakota today,
central South Dakota into the James valley Sunday, and central South
Dakota east into the James valley and Sisseton hills/glacial lakes
region both Monday and Tuesday. Fire weather is a concern with corn
still being harvested, recent hard freezes reducing amount of green
vegetation and the winds, however despite the `mild` temperatures
(mid 50s) afternoon humidity remains high, only down to around 50-
70%

In regards to the system Wednesday/Thursday, deterministic models are
still projecting a low moving up across the state of South Dakota,
from southwest to northeast or thereabouts. NBM deterministic is down
to a few hundreds, with the 25th-75th range dropping to nothing to
less than a tenth of an inch across the northern tier of the CWA.
Given the low/wave progression, most of the moisture will be
associated with wrap around and thus the lower QPF. We`re also
seeing a fairly high range in the 25th-75th range for high
temperatures Wednesday due to uncertainty with the system`s degree
of warm advection and timing with a range of about 6 to 8F along
with a gradient in the ranges from northwest to southeast as we
move into the cold advection portion of the system.

A low follows close behind the first, with the EC/GFS/Canadian
taking it across the Dakotas/Minnesota for next weekend. Way too far
out for details, but the NBM is probabilities for rain are about
equal to that of snow as the system departs and as such we are
seeing rain/snow mix starting to show up in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 517 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the valid taf
period. South to southeast winds increase with with gusts of 20
to 30 knots.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...17