831
FXUS63 KABR 272331 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
531 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dense fog possible again this evening for at least northern SD
  into west central MN, with visibility around one-quarter mile or
  less.

- Northwest winds gusting from 40 to 55 mph tonight through Sunday
  evening. Wind Advisories in place.

- Snow accumulations from a trace to around 2 inches late tonight
  into Sunday morning. Low visibility around one-half mile
  possible over portions of the region when light to moderate snow
  and blowing snow occurs.

- Much colder air (single digits and teens) for the rest of the
  weekend into Monday. Wind chills at their coldest from 15 below
  to around 20 below zero for northern portions of the region.

- Elevated fire weather concerns are forecast Sunday over portions
  of central/south central South Dakota.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 526 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Watching more stratus and fog drifting southward across southern ND
and starting to approach the state line this afternoon. Expect this
to continue into the evening hours, with an increase in sky cover
and fog coverage into the northern CWA. Certainly possible another
headline might be needed for low visibility in fog this evening, as
obs across the border in ND are down around one-quarter mile, with
web cams looking quite foggy as well.

Main focus is on the strong winds/cold/snow moving in overnight and
lingering through the day Sunday. It still appears strong winds move
into central SD this evening and moved up the start time of the Wind
Advisory to 01Z across the Missouri valley counties. The rest of the
CWA gradually gets involved with wind headlines through the
overnight hours. Overall, it appears gusts generally ranging from 40
to 55 mph will be common overnight and through the day Sunday,
perhaps even into Sunday evening across the eastern CWA and did set
expiration times to align with this thinking out east.

With the snow/blowing snow aspect of this system, total
accumulations are still around 2 inches or less across the region,
with highest totals across higher/upslope elevations in the Glacial
Lakes eastward into Big Stone/Traverse counties. Any issues with low
visibility in snow/blowing snow will have to occur during any
pockets of moderate snowfall as there obviously isn`t any blowable
snow on the ground. Latest PotBlowingSnow grids don`t lend too much
high confidence in going with an advisory for snow/blowing snow, but
suspect there will be areas that do see visibility around one-half
mile or less when it`s snowing moderately. Confidence was not high
enough for a Winter Weather Advisory at this time, so stuck with a
Wind Advisory and mentioned potential for blowing snow and low
visibility within that product. Evening/overnight shift may take
another look and decide to issue something different if confidence
increases in larger scale low visibility impacts. Just have
questions on overall snowfall rates and longevity to warrant a
headline. Further east in MN it`s a bit more of a slam dunk.
Neighbors to the north/east (FGF/MPX) are still sitting with the
Winter Storm Watch, so also felt best to issue something during
their potential upgrades.

Will also be watching the cold air move in through Sunday into
Sunday night/Monday when the center of the high pressure moves
overhead. By Sunday morning, most areas should be in the single
digits and teens, with steady temps throughout the day. Coldest
apparent temperatures through this latest cold snap are generally
from 15 below to around 20 below over northern portions of the CWA.
So, still appears we are not approaching "headline-able" wind chills
at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 526 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will prevail to start the TAF period at KMBG, KPIR
and KATY. KABR is going to start off in IFR/LIFR fog and low
stratus. Prior to a strong cold front will move through the area
tonight, will probably see more IFR/LIFR fog and low stratus reach
KMBG and KATY. Behind the cold frontal passage, sustained northwest
winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph will develop from
northwest to southeast and persist through Sunday. Light
drizzle/freezing drizzle is possible prior to the onset of post
cold fropa snowfall. The -SN/SN will also move eastward through
the region tonight into Sunday morning, with potential MVFR/IFR
ceilings and visibilities in falling and blowing snow.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Dense Fog Advisory until midnight CST tonight for SDZ005>008-010-
     011.

     Wind Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to midnight CST Sunday night for
     SDZ008-020>023.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Sunday for SDZ003-004-
     009-015-016-033>035-045-048.

     Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Sunday for
     SDZ005-010-017-036-037-051.

     Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM CST Sunday for SDZ006-007-011-
     018-019.

MN...Dense Fog Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MNZ039-046.

     Wind Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to midnight CST Sunday night for
     MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...10