412
FXUS63 KABR 161409
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
909 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe storms
  across north central SD this evening through the overnight
  hours. The main threat will be wind gusts of around 60 mph
  over north central SD. 1" hail will also be possible over far
  north central SD.

- Widespread precipitation move into mainly north central to
  northeastern SD/west central MN late this evening through
  Wednesday. Mainly dry weather will continue over south central
  SD.

- There is a 70-90% chance of winds out of the northwest gusting
  greater than 45 mph Wednesday west of James River.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 909 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Updated to increase the shower potential this afternoon based on
the CAMs. Thunderstorms look to hold off mostly until around
21Z or later over north central SD, and the key messages have
been updated to highlight the main threat tonight. The
probability of winds over 45 mph has also increased for
Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 857 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

As of 1 AM CDT, temperatures are in the low 50s with winds out of
the north to northwest between 10 and 15 mph. Storms have moved east
and out of the region and leave behind mainly clear skies.

Storms return this evening mainly over north central and eastern SD.
There is a Marginal (level 1 out of 5) risk for severe storms in
north central SD with the main threat being strong winds of 60 mph,
although there could be some storms that produce hail 1 inch in
diameter. This marginal might also be expanded into eastern SD with
further updates. The first round of storms looks to move across from
about 4 PM to 7 PM CDT, and then a second round moves through
between 10 PM Tuesday and 3 AM CDT Wednesday. CAMs show a break
Wednesday morning a couple hours after sunrise with showers and
storms popping back up during the afternoon to evening hours. This
second round of precipitation looks much more scattered in nature
than what moves across the area this evening. No severe weather is
expected at this time but it won`t take much to get severe levels
winds with the strong winds already expected (more on that in the
next paragraph) Thursday afternoon also has a chance for some
showers and storms. No severe weather is expected with those storms.

Temperatures through the period continue to range between average
and as much as 10 degrees below average, coolest being Wednesday and
Thursday. Wednesday will also be quite windy with gusts of 40-50 mph
west of the Missouri River during the afternoon. Chance of gusts
higher than 45 mph is between 70 and 90% south of Hwy 14. North of
Hwy 14, the chances decrease to 30-50%. The rest of the forecast
looks to much much calmer wind-wise.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 609 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Showers and
thunderstorms will move east through the region tonight. MVFR
vsby is possible in stronger storms.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...20