562
FXUS63 KABR 022316 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
516 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of light snow/snow showers through tonight, with
  accumulations less than an inch. Mixed precip (rain/freezing
  rain) possible across central SD, but only a light glaze
  possible. Overall, minor/limited impacts with this system.

- Weak system will bring additional chances (20-30%) for light
  snowfall under an inch for Tuesday night.

- Expect above normal temperatures (by 5 to 20 degrees) Wednesday
  through at least Monday of next week. The warmest air will be
  overhead Thursday, with highs in the 40s to low 50s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 514 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

The forecast is on track this evening. No major changes are
planned just some hourly radar-based tweaks.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Mid-level shortwave energy is dropping southeast across the Dakotas
while a weak surface wave rides along the stationary front draped
from north to south across the western Dakotas. Continue to see
areas of light snow and/or snow showers moving southeast across the
Dakotas, with more upstream across ND set to make its way through the
area into the evening hours. Threat for mixed precipitation exists
across central SD in the form of rain/freezing rain, although any
ice accumulations are expected to be rather light with limited
impacts. Same with snowfall, generally light accumulations under 1
inch expected and not anticipating anything other than minor impacts
from this wave as it moves through.

Still dealing with plenty of stratus clouds across the region as
well, with signs pointing to this sticking around through much of
the night. In fact, reinforcements in cloud cover may be arriving
tomorrow so looking at a mostly cloudy short term period. Increased
sky cover a bit in the grids/forecast through Tuesday evening.

Next chance for precip across the region looks to be Tuesday night,
but again it`s just a weak wave of low pressure with only
minor/light amounts expected. The rest of the forecast from
Wednesday through next Monday is a dry one, with a lack of any
significant systems affecting the Northern Plains for the time
being.

Focus is still on the warming temperatures set to overspread the
area mid/late week into the upcoming weekend. Still appears the peak
in temperatures will be on Thursday, with Grand Ensemble showing
+10C to +15C across central SD by 00Z Friday. Inherited NBM high
temps show widespread 40s and 50s across the region, even flirting
with 60 degrees across the far west/southwestern CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 514 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

A mix of cigs with MVFR/IFR prevailing overnight is expected
through the period. Occasional IFR vsby in light snow is also
possible at KABR and KATY this evening.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...20
DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...20