628
FXUS63 KABR 021143 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
543 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of dense fog this morning over central SD and portions of
  northeast SD. Visibility down to around one-quarter mile at
  times.

- A couple of weak waves passing through the region could bring
  brief bouts of light precipitation to our area on Friday and
  Friday night.

- Temperatures Sunday and for much of next week will be 10 to 20
  degrees above normal with mainly dry conditions.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 531 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 342 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Stratus continues across the entire CWA this morning and don`t see
this going anywhere through much of the day. There may be a few
breaks over the eastern CWA as a few models indicate, but it appears
stratus will hold on strong until perhaps Saturday when central SD
looks to begin breaking out. Latest scan of web cams/obs continue to
indicate areas of fog (dense at times) across central SD and also in
the spine of the Coteau aided by weak upslope flow. Will maintain
headlines for fog across central SD and over a portion of northeast
SD through the morning hours and will monitor for any changes to
areal coverage.

Rest of the short term is fairly quiet. Surface high pressure
sprawled out from ND southeast into MN will keep winds fairly light
over the region. Will be watching two systems glancing the CWA, with
limited to no impacts over us. First system may bring some light
mixed precip over southern SD, but looks to largely miss the CWA
aside from perhaps southern Lyman county. Another weak wave may also
bring some light snow to far northeast SD and west central MN
tonight. Little to no accumulation expected with this very minor
wave.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 342 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Overall the pattern in the extended transitions out of a northwest
flow regime to a split flow pattern by the end of the extended.  In
the interim there will be an upper ridge moving overhead for late in
the weekend and start of next week.

A weak shortwave traverses under the broader ridge Sunday. Overall
there is a general warm advection trend during that time, with 850mb
temperatures increasing to a standard deviation above climo. There
will be a little bit of a surface gradient on Sunday morning, with
a departing 1025mb high pressure system increasing low level
southeasterlies. The weak surface low associated with the wave
Sunday moves across the area, with a tight temperature gradient
around it. Unfortunately, with weak low level flow on the backside
and stable southeasterlies ahead of it, the warmer air aloft may
only make limited inroads down to the surface as BUFKIT profiles
suggest a near-saturated near surface inversion remains in place.
With light winds and nothing to kick out the low level moisture we
may be stuck in the fog/stratus. This is in addition to all the
high/mid clouds associated with the shortwave. NBM 25th-75th
percentiles are still indicating a broad spread and high uncertainty
(6 to 9 degrees) for highs Sunday.

Additionally, with the surface low and inversion, there may a short
window in which we see Sisseton hills downslope. This would be just
as the low moves into the James valley, with southeasterlies
shifting to south southwesterlies. NAM BUFKIT profiles indicate
60kts in that critical layer around 2kft. As the low continues to
proceed east, the flow shifts to west northwesterlies and the
downslope potential drops. We`re talking about a window of only
about 3 hours, and as such, NBM in its array of ensembles is
probably smoothing these winds out given the time range. Will be
able to provide greater detail on timing/intensity once CAMS start
to extend out that far. Snow cover age and consistency is also in
question as we`ve seen mostly light snowfall events and temperatures
remained cold enough that there has only been slight modification,
meaning there may be some patchy blowing snow but as of yet not with
a high enough degree of certainty to include such mention in the
forecast.

What follows is split flow and a baggy trough. There are a couple of
weak systems, but again there is little run to run continuity or
continuity between the three main deterministic models. A little
more confident in just the fact that we will see above normal
temperatures. How warm is still a bit uncertain as the spread in the
NBM 25th-75th remains high, although lower in comparison to 24 hours
ago, down to around 5 to 8 degrees. With this pattern moving
forward, and few intrusions of arctic air to help shunt moisture out
of the region, we may likewise be stuck with more rounds of fog and
stratus.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 531 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

MVFR/IFR CIGs will affect the region through the TAF period. Areas
of FG/BR are also expected, with MVFR/IFR VSBY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for SDZ003-
     008>010-015>017-021-023-033>037-045-048.

MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TMT