514
FXUS63 KABR 181133 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
633 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Brisk winds and below normal temperatures will persist today.

- Mainly dry conditions are expected this weekend into the
  first half of next week with temperatures warming back above
  normal next week.

- Elevated fire weather conditions will return next week as gusty
  winds and low relative humidity values are expected.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 627 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

As of 1 AM CDT, temperatures are in the mid 20s to low 30s and will
continue to drop through the remainder of the overnight period and
reach the low 20s by sunrise. Winds are out of the northwest at
about 10 to 15 mph and gusts continue to decrease.

The next several days will be dry and most days will have stronger
winds which will create elevated fire danger. Today, winds will gust
out of the northwest at 30 to 35 mph, some locally higher gusts
closer to 40 mph will be possible in south central SD. RH values
this afternoon are expected to drop into the 25 to 30% range which
will create high grassland fire danger. Sunday, winds will be
much calmer with high pressure over the area and a bit warmer
temperatures. Stronger winds return Monday as the high pressure
to our east battles with a low to our north, again increasing
the grassland fire danger. This low to our north will put us in
some strong WAA and increase temperatures to about 20 degrees
above normal across the region. These warmer temperatures are
expected to last through at least Wednesday. Wednesday night
through Thursday, a low moves across ND bringing a cold front
across our area. This will bring a chance for some precipitation
and potentially some storms. Friday, behind the cold front from
Thursday`s low, will be significantly cooler with potential for
wrap around precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 627 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Lingering
2800ft CIGs at KATY will depart just after TAF issuance. Gusty
northwest surface winds around 25 kts will develop again today,
then decrease to less than 12kts by sunset. There may be a
slight (20%) chance of -SHRA/-SHSN this evening, but low
confidence in coverage/occurrence so will leave out of TAFs at
this time.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...TMT