946
FXUS63 KABR 261748
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1248 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread precipitation will push north and east this afternoon
and evening as a storm system pulls out of the Rockies into the
Northern Plains. This system will exit early Tuesday morning.

- Snow will mix in with the rain later today into tonight across
parts of central SD. Minor accumulations (up to an inch) will be
possible, especially on grassy surfaces.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Another day, another model solution for this system. Confidence in
timing is high. Confidence in precip type is moderate. Confidence in
snow amounts is low. The run to run consensus has settled, for the
most part, on a central SD changeover to snow after 20z, mainly
north of Pierre and west of the James Valley. It all hinges on
temperatures and dewpoints. Bumped temps down slightly this
afternoon and up slightly tonight due to cloud cover as non-diurnal
trends have already been noted. There`s no temperature advection to
really mention as the upper trough digs into SD except maybe a
wobble from 0C to -2C. Moisture will be plenty sufficient with a
strong H7 low and theta-e advection, and there could be localized
seeder-feeder and wet-bulbing effects that would enhance any snow.
So, the ranges remain large. 25th to 75th percentiles are still in
that 0-1 inch expectation, mainly on grassy surfaces with a 90th
percentile of 1 to 3 inches. However, outliers like the REFS range
as high as 7 inches.

Once this system exits early Tuesday, a weak front stretches
northeast into central and eastern SD on Wednesday. Coupled with
some shortwave energy, this feature will produce some light rain
before high pressure builds in Wednesday night. Dry conditions are
expected on Thursday under the high with increasing temperatures as
heights rise aloft. Another low will affect the area Friday night
into Saturday, bringing rain and gusty southerly winds for the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

IFR cigs and MVFR/IFR vsby will expand north and east this
afternoon and evening with heavier precipitation. Snow is
expected to mix in with rain after 20z mainly at KMBG, but could
see a mix at KPIR or KABR as well through this evening. The
system exits early Tuesday, but fog/stratus will leave
conditions at IFR into Tuesday morning.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20