562
FXUS63 KABR 251342 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
842 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm/hot temperatures in the 80s to low 90s expected through
  Thursday.

- Isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms could develop or
  move over portions of south central and east central South
  Dakota this evening, with rain chances persisting over those
  areas into the early overnight hours.

- Isolated/scattered evening and overnight thunderstorm chances
  (20-40 percent) exist off and on Thursday evening continuing
  into Sunday evening.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 836 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Temp-wise, already starting things off a solid 5 to 10 degrees
warmer than this time yesterday, and much of the CWA got into
the mid 80s yesterday. So, seems reasonable to think there will
be areas that exceed 90 degrees this afternoon. Today should be
precipitation-free, but low level jet/moisture advection
convection later tonight certainly looks possible, from a set-up
stand-point. Not much for low level moisture advection today.
So, daytime heating should end up knocking relative humidity
down below 25 percent over much of the forecast area, but
especially over portions of central and north central South
Dakota. All that to say, no change planned at this time to the
today period forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 631 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 128 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

An upper-level ridge will start to build over and to the north of SD
today through the rest of the week, with the models showing split
flow occurring over the state. This ridge will help warm air to
continue moving into SD today and Tuesday, which will warm
temperatures to be 15-20 degrees above normal. The high temperatures
will get into the upper 80s to low 90s. Another low level jet is
forecast to develop over northern NE and parts of southern SD later
this afternoon into the evening. This jet combined with the warmer
temperatures and some moisture in that area will likely cause some
storms and showers to develop. These storms will most likely stay
over NE and southeast SD, however a couple of the high-res models
are hinting that a couple of showers and storms could clip south
central and east central SD this evening with scattered rain
chances continuing during the night.

Tuesday, an upper-level trough and low looks to set up over the
Rockies which will help to support a surface trough to develop and
sit over western SD and WY through the rest of the work week. As
this trough sits over this area, a low level jet will develop and
pull cold air in. This cold air will help to get the winds in the
jet to the surface, with gusts of 30 to 40 mph possible mainly over
central SD starting Tuesday afternoon and in the afternoons that
follow. The cold air will also help to cool temperatures slightly
after Tuesday through the rest of the week. While temperatures are
cooling, highs will still be in the 80s. This heat could combine
with moisture moving into central and northeastern SD to cause
afternoon showers and storms to develop Tuesday and onward. Due to
the split flow aloft, the models vary the timing, location, and
intensity of these showers and storms. There are higher chances for
rain and showers to develop towards the end of the work week as some
of the models hint at things starting to shift. An eye will need to
be kept on upcoming model runs to see if they still continue on this
trend and if more models show it occurring.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 631 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...TMT