895
FXUS63 KABR 071720
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1220 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms (level 2 out of 5) is in
place today. All severe threats, including wind of 60 to 75 miles
per hour, hail of 1 to 1.5 inches in diameter, and tornadoes will be
possible.

- This is also a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall leading to flash
flooding (a level 2 of 4 threat) in place over much of the area
today. The greatest chances for excessive rainfall will be over
north central and northeast SD as well as western MN. These areas
have already received 1-3 inches of rain from this morning`s storms.
These areas are expected to see an additional 1-2" of rain at least,
with the heaviest rain expected in the evening. Areas that see
multiple round of storms may see as much as 2-4" of rain in total.

- A slight cooldown is expected Wednesday through at least Thursday,
with widespread near-normal to just below normal high temperatures
(low to mid 80s). Signs point to a warming trend beginning by the
end of the week, and highs may potentially hit triple digits over
the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

As of about 12:30 PM CDT, temperatures around the area are in the
low 80s with winds out of the north behind the front and out of the
southeast ahead of the front. This front will once again be the
focus for storm development late this afternoon into the evening
hours. The storms from this morning have moved out of the forecast
area, leaving behind some rainfall totals between 1.5 and 2 inches,
localized up to 3 inches. This will play a role in flooding
potential later this afternoon and evening.

A low pressure system starts to move into southwest SD today with a
nose moving into south central SD. Storms will start to form in this
area of low pressure and along the front in central SD around 5 to 7
PM. The environment lacks low level shear but surface to 1 km SRH
from the RAP is pretty good along the front. This will be supportive
of tornadoes. Lapse rates are around 7-7.5 C/km and there is plenty
of CAPE to support supercells with large hail 1 to 1.5 inches in
diameter and wind gusts of 60-75 mph. SPC has highlighted the
forecast area in slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe weather
with a 2% tornado risk along and around the front. The HREF shows
storm motion in generally a southwesterly direction at 5 to 10 kts,
so very slow. This, combined with PWAT values of 1.5 to 2 inches
will increase chances of flooding, especially in east/northeast SD.
There is potential for storms to become more linear and transition
into a MCS with an increased chance for damaging winds. Storms are
expected to last into the morning hours of Wednesday.

The next big story of the forecast is a ridge that moves into our
area from the west this weekend into next week. This will result in
several days of hot weather. Highs Sunday through Tuesday are
expected to be 10-20 degrees above average for this time of year
with heat index values near or exceeding 100 degrees. This will put
HeatRisk into the moderate to major categories, with portions of
central and northeast SD reaching the extreme category both Monday
and Tuesday. This will affect anyone. Make sure to keep a look out
for signs of heat related illnesses, especially with outdoor events.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions have returned to TAF sites behind this morning`s
storms. Another round of storms is expected to move through late
this afternoon into the overnight hours. These storms are
expected to bring strong wind gusts, large hail, and possibly
some tornadoes. Left thunderstorm mention out due to low
confidence on timing and location.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...13