597
FXUS63 KABR 260848
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
248 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wind chills of -20 to near -40 degrees will continue through mid
morning, with the lowest readings across the Leola Hills of north
central and Prairie Coteau of northeastern South Dakota.

- Southwest winds increase today causing downslope gusts to 50 mph
along the Prairie Coteau. A wind advisory is in effect from mid
morning through mid afternoon. Drifting snow and blow ice may cause
slippery roads especially along I-29.

- Temperatures briefly return to near normal values today, with
highs in the upper teens and 20s. 30s are expected across Stanley,
Jones, and Lyman Counties.

- Temperatures will return to below normal values Monday night
through Friday, with highs 10 to 20 degrees below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 248 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Bitterly cold wind chills in the -25 to -40 degree range continue
early this morning. As the upper trough slides southeast, southwest
winds increase at the sfc and heights rise aloft. This will usher in
some warmer temperatures this morning from the west. More seasonable
highs in the upper teens to mid 30s are expected today as a result,
though they will be short-lived. As winds increase with gusts
generally in the 25 to 35 mph range, downslope winds will develop
along the Coteau with gusts to 50 mph. With the very limited snow
depth, drifting snow is more of a concern than blowing snow. Roads
may be slippery from blow ice. Issued a wind advisory starting as
the Cold Weather Advisory expires this morning for areas along the
Coteau ridgeline.

Another upper trough slides into eastern ND/MN tonight. A 1030s high
then builds in at the sfc on Tuesday. Both of these features will
reintroduce below normal temps. Highs on Tuesday will range from the
single digits east of the James Valley to the lower 20s in south
central SD. Added in a little NBM 10th percentile again for
temperatures through the short term.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 248 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

The long term starts Tuesday night with an upper low off to our
north over eastern ND and northern MN. This low will move east and
out of the region during the day Wednesday. Another low moves into
the Great Lakes region late Thursday with the trough reaching back
into the eastern Dakotas. Sunday, a shortwave moves south out of
Canada. Down at the surface, Wednesday we will be under high
pressure until a surface low moves through western SD on Thursday,
bringing a chance for some light snow. We are once again under high
pressure Friday before that shortwave moves through bringing a
chance for some light snow again on Saturday.

Starting with the Thursday light snow chances, PoPs top out around
30%, mainly over central SD. The probability of more than an inch of
snow is around or less than 20% with the highest chances over
central SD. Some snow could continue into Friday morning. For the
Saturday snow, chances of more than an inch are again around or less
than 20% with highest chances mainly over the James River area. PoPs
for this also top out around 30%.

Temperatures during the period will start out below average by 10-15
degrees, and then see a nice jump to 5-10 degrees above average for
the weekend. Winds still aren`t expected to be anything special
during the period. Friday morning looks to be a little on the chilly
side with widespread wind chills in the -20 to -25 degree range.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1123 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Low-level
wind shear (LLWS) is expected at KMBG Monday morning.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for SDZ004>011-
     016>023-034>037-045-048-051.

     Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM CST this afternoon
     for SDZ007-008-020-021-023.

MN...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...TMT