450
FXUS63 KABR 090239 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
939 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 35 to 60 percent chance of light rain and snow
  Thursday, with less than 0.10in of water equivalent
  precipitation and less than 0.5in of snow accumulation
  expected.

- High temperatures recover to near normal on Friday before
  warming to above normal Saturday through Monday. Temperatures
  over much of the area are expected to be 10 to 20 degrees
  above normal, warmest Sunday.

- Fire weather concerns look to relax a bit Friday and Saturday.
  But afternoon relative humidity values on Sunday may get
  close to 20 percent over portions of central and south central
  South Dakota.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 933 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Made a couple of minor changes this evening to the remainder of
tonight`s forecast. Winds noticeably began to diminish by sunset
and have continued to follow that trend. Did cancel the Wind
Advisory across our eastern zones early. A uniform area of stratus
across ND continues to hug our far northeast zones and will likely
persist into the early morning hours. Refreshed winds with the
latest NBM data and increased cloud cover a bit and extended it
out in time into early Thursday as a result.

UPDATE Issued at 639 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 00Z TAFS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

At 1 PM CDT, skies were a mix of sun and clouds. One cold front
has moved through the CWA. A second cold front is making its
way, southward, into the CWA early this afternoon. Any hints of
early precipitation chances have all but dried up this
afternoon. Temperatures are running in the 30s and 40s.
Northwest winds 25 to 40 mph with gusts 45 to 60 mph are
sweeping southeastward into the forecast area. The strong winds
are expected to extend over into west central Minnesota by late
this afternoon, persisting into the middle of the evening before
subsiding. The Wind Advisory has been extended in time and space
as such.

Surface high pressure will set up over the region tonight into
Thursday. Aloft, a rex block pattern is just off the west coast,
with the upper ridge`s influencing continuing to spell a period of
northwest flow over this region. Models support a shortwave sliding
southeastward across the region on Thursday, bringing the potential
for some light snow or a rain/snow mix. Beyond that, precipitation
chances will have to wait until Saturday/Saturday night, at the
earliest, as the low pressure energy in the bottom of the west coast
rex block is progged to start working itself back into the mean
flow, heading toward the central plains over the weekend. Upper
level steering winds are expected to become southwesterly aloft by
the end of the day Saturday in response, and this should open the
door for a handful of precipitation chances between Saturday
afternoon/night and Tuesday of next week. Currently, models depict a
break in the precipitation chances around the middle of next week,
as shortwave ridging aloft and surface high pressure work over the
Dakotas. As far as any potential precipitation amounts go, the
probability of 0.10in or more of water equiv (rain) in any given 24
hour period containing PoPs in the 7-day forecast is less than 35
percent (in most cases it`s less than 25 percent).

As for temperatures, there is an ensemble-supported warm-up in store
for Friday through Monday, including a 55 to 90 percent chance the
high temperature on Sunday will warm to 80 degrees or warmer. There
are even a few pockets of 30 to 40 percent probability of
temperatures reaching 90 degrees on Sunday.

As for fire weather concerns, after this afternoon`s marginal
relative humidity considerations (~20-30 percent), the only other
day in the 7-day of concern right now shows up on Sunday, when
Stanley/Jones/Lyman counties will be, once again, running afternoon
humidities between 20 to 30 percent.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 639 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will continue to prevail this evening into the mid
to late mornings hours of Thursday. Northwest wind will remain
gusty between 25-35 kts until sunset and then begin to gradually
diminish later this evening into the early overnight. Light snow
or a rain/snow mix remains possible during the late morning
through late afternoon hours on Thursday. High end MVFR/low end
VFR CIGs may be possible at KABR/KMBG during the mid- late
afternoon.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Vipond
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...Vipond