066
FXUS63 KABR 121735
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1235 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A dangerous and prolonged heat wave will continue through this
week with near record to record temperatures expected and heat index
values warming into the triple digits each afternoon.

- An Extreme Heat Warning for north central SD and a Heat Advisory
for parts of central and northeast SD and west central MN
have been extended through Thursday.

- The combination of humidity dropping below 20%, wind gusts of 20-
35 mph, and drying fuels will lead to elevated fire danger concerns
across portions of north central SD each afternoon through Tuesday.
A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for portions of north central
SD for Monday afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

The persistent, strong heat dome will remain over the region through
this week. Extended the heat headlines through Thursday evening for
now, even though Wednesday`s HI values may be a little lower due to
more widespread breezy conditions. The wind and drier air with
slightly lower dewpoints moving into central SD will result in both
higher actual temperatures and slightly lower "feels-like"
temperatures. However, southerly winds gusting 25 to 35 mph Monday
will also bring high fire danger to areas along the Missouri River
as grasses cure. Issued a Fire Weather Watch for portions of north
central SD for Monday afternoon with RH falling into the upper
teens. Tuesday is actually the day with more widespread low RH, but
winds are more marginal so will need to evaluate fire concerns on a
daily basis going forward.

The core of the upper ridge finally begins to migrate south and east
Friday into Saturday. A cold front trails through early Saturday but
doesn`t seem to have any significant precip/moisture with it. Global
models keep any showers to the north or southwest. Could potentially
see a break to highs in the 90s/100s the latter half of next weekend
behind the sfc cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ Thursday for
     SDZ005>008-010-011-017-018-021-033>037-045-048-051.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ Thursday for
     SDZ003-004-009-015-016.
     Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday
     evening for SDZ003-004-015.
MN...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT Thursday for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20