830
FXUS63 KABR 081818
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
118 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Slight (Level 2 of 5) to Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe
thunderstorms is in effect Thursday afternoon through evening for
north central South Dakota and parts of central South Dakota west of
the Missouri River. Hail of 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts of 60
to 70 miles per hour will be the main threats.

- A slight cooldown is expected today and Thursday, with widespread
near-normal high temperatures (upper 70s to 80s). A warming trend
begins by the end of the week, and highs may potentially hit triple
digits over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 118 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

There area some low clouds over portions of central and northeastern
SD this morning. The lower clouds should dissipate by the afternoon
and mostly clear skies will be around during the afternoon. While
there is some instability over central SD this afternoon, there is a
capped environment  over central and northeastern SD that should
keep storms and showers from developing during the evening into
tonight. Temperatures today and Thursday will be around normal for
this time of the year, with highs in the 70s to 80s.

A frontal boundary will be moving into SD Thursday afternoon through
the night with some warm, moist temperatures sneaking in during the
day. There will be higher instability Thursday afternoon over
northwestern SD, with CAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg, which will help
with storm development as the frontal boundary pushes through late
Thursday afternoon. During the evening, the environment for storms
will weaken, with CAPE values dropping into the 1000 J/kg and even
lower during the overnight hours. The storms will move east into
central and northeastern SD into the weaker environment which will
start to weaken the storms and cause them to dissipate. High-res
models are still forecasting scattered storms to move into north
central SD and some area west of the Missouri River Thursday evening
before dissipating as they move east. There is a slight (level 2 out
of 5) to marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for these storms to become
severe over north central SD. The primary hazards in these storms
will be hail up to 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts of 60-70 mph.

An upper-level ridge will be starting to develop over SD Friday into
the weekend and early next week. This ridge will be pushing warm,
humid air up into central and northeastern SD through the weekend
and onward. Temperatures warm to be around 5-15 degrees warmer than
normal on Saturday, with highs in the upper 80s to upper 90s. Then
they will increase even more Sunday and Monday to be in the mid 90s
to mid 100s. Heat index values will get up into the mid 90s to
triple digits Sunday and Monday. There is a 30-50% chance for heat
risk to reach Major category Saturday, with a 75-95% chance Sunday
and Monday. There is also a 25-45% chance of the Heat Risk to get
into the Extreme category Monday. Those who are sensitive to heat as
well as those who lack cooling and hydration through the day could
develop heat illnesses. The ridge and high pressure will also help
to keep storms and showers from developing and moving into central
and northeastern SD through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

MVFR/IFR conditions are expected to continue for KABR, KATY, an
KPIR into the afternoon before the low ceilings from lower clouds
will clear out. KMBG will stay in VFR with KABR and KPIR becoming
VFR during the early afternoon. KATY on the other hand will have to
lower clouds sticking around for longer, which will cause IFR/MVFR
ceilings to be around into the evening before clearing to VFR.
Northeasterly winds will continue to stick around through the day,
with the winds shifting to be from the east southeast during the
morning over KPIR and KMBG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...12