948
FXUS63 KABR 050529
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1229 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures with highs in the 70s to low 80s Today
into Tuesday, about 15 to 20 degrees above normal.

- Temperatures about 10 degrees above normal for the rest of the
work week.

- Dry conditions through the work week as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Warm advection mid clouds developing on satellite, and forecast in
soundings/NBM sky cover. Only about 50mb thickness at around 700mb,
so will have a limited impact on the forecast aside from less than
full sunshine for some locations in the east today. Local downslope
conditions for a brief period tonight with BUFKIT profiles
indicating about 40kts in the critical layer, and it will take just
before the front coming through, when we briefly achieve a southwest
oriented wind, to really take effect. Otherwise just breezy with
south flow and 1/2km winds at about 25-30kts.

Tuesday will be dominated by weak low level flow and weak cold
advection, with enhanced mixing on a northwest wind component. NBM
highs around 80.

The rest of the week remains mild albeit not quite as above normal
as the pattern is dominated by a northwesterly flow regime.

For the weekend, currently deterministic EC/GFS/Canadian all depict
some form of ridge crosses the north central CONUS followed by a
deepening trough over the western CONUS. Southwest flow regime will
help generate a low over the northern Rockies followed by a frontal
passage. Starting to see some NBM POPs creep into Sat/Sun but its
still pretty far off to come to any final conclusions regarding the
weekend forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will continue through the period. Gusts near 25kts
are expected 16-23Z at both ABR and ATY, with gusts continuing
through the evening hours at ATY where low level wind shear will also
be possible after 03Z Tuesday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...06