884
FXUS63 KABR 251108 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
608 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures are expected today, with highs
  ranging from the upper 60s to upper 70s.

- Strong northerly winds return Thursday behind a cold front.
  Gusts are expected to peak in the morning at 30 to 45 miles per
  hour, slowly diminishing through the rest of the day. Winds
  will also cause elevated fire weather concerns Thursday
  afternoon.

- Temperatures cool down to slightly below normal (highs in the
  40s) Thursday and Friday. However, a quick return to above
  normal temperatures is expected for the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 605 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Upper-level ridge over the western CONUS remains in place today,
which allows for a warm airmass to remain over the Northern Plains
today. This morning is some potential for light rain to develop
aloft this morning, but a dry layer near the surface will most
likely prevent anything from reaching the surface. Therefore, little
to no accumulation is expected. Highs today are expected to reach
the 70s across much of the area, and some places over north central
and central South Dakota may touch 80 degrees. These areas may also
threaten record highs, but ultimately are expected to fall short,
cloud cover being a major potential reason for that.

More robust chances for precipitation (mainly in the form of rain)
return overnight tonight into Thursday morning. Current expectations
are that the bulk of the precipitation will stay to the north of the
Aberdeen forecast area, instead focusing over North Dakota in the
area of stronger divergence aloft. A cold front will also shift
south across the forecast area overnight tonight into Thursday.
Despite the frontal motion, the best chances for precipitation
remain focused along the South Dakota/North Dakota border. However,
after the frontal passage, the cooler air will create a transition
from rain to snow as the dominant precipitation type, should
precipitation continue for that long. Overall not expecting much in
the way of accumulation with this system. The latest NBM probability
of a hundredth of an inch of liquid equivalent remains in a gradient
across the CWA, increasing from south to north and peaking around 40-
60 percent along and north of US-12.

Behind the front, strong cold air advection will take hold in the
form of strong northerly winds. Timing of the strongest cold air
advection has shifted up slightly, now mainly occurring in the early
morning to morning hours. However, still expecting the strong winds
to persist through the afternoon, but with winds aloft beginning to
decrease by the afternoon, surface winds may actually decrease
through the day despite the better mixing potential in the
afternoon. For the moment, still leaning towards the NBM 90th
percentile for the duration of the strongest cold air advection in
today`s forecast due to the tendency for the NBM to under-forecast
wind speeds under northerly cold air advection. Latest ensemble
guidance still resolves a 10-20% chance of gusts reaching Wind
Advisory criteria of 45 miles per hour. These winds will also cause
some elevated fire weather concerns in the afternoon, with High to
Very High Grassland Fire Danger expected. Luckily, minimum afternoon
humidity will remain in the 35 to 40 percent range at the lowest,
and will likely not coincide with the strongest winds. Still,
lingering gusts upwards to 30 miles per hour in the afternoon will
be enough to cause the elevated fire weather concerns.

The strong cold air advection will cause a fairly significant
temperature drop. 850mb temperatures out ahead of the front range
from 10 to 15 degrees Celsius, dropping to -5 to -10 Celsius behind
the front. This translates to temperatures 5-10 degrees below normal
for the end of March both Thursday and Friday. Thursday in
particular will see a non-diurnal temperature trend through the day.

The next upper-level ridge is set to move over the western CONUS by
the weekend, eventually allowing the return of a warmer airmass to
the Northern Plains. Expect above normal temperatures for the
weekend with minimal chances for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 605 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through Wednesday night. Scattered
elevated showers moving into central/north central South Dakota
this morning may produce some sprinkles at KMBG/KPIR before
dissipating. Later tonight, a strong cold front will pass through
the region, turning relatively light winds northerly increasing
to 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35-40 knots.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...10