314
FXUS63 KABR 071853 CCA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
153 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An isolated storm or two (10-20%) possible late tonight into
Saturday morning. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) extends through
south central South Dakota with the main threats being hail up to 1
inch and wind gusts of 60 mph.

- Another round of isolated to scattered (20-40%) storms is expected
Saturday night into Sunday morning with the focus across northeast
South Dakota and west central Minnesota. A Marginal Risk (1 of 5)
extends up across this area, with the main threats being hail up to
1 inch and wind gusts of 60 mph.

- Smoke aloft is expected to persist the next several days, however
there is little potential for the smoke at the surface.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

High pressure to the north continues to feed cool/dry air into the
region. NAM BUFKIT profiles show mixed winds stalled for the
remainder of the day, meaning winds have peaked. Fires remain a
concern given the antecedent dry conditions and low humidity,
but again the limiting factor is winds.

Regarding smoke in the upper levels, overall little change with the
HRRR/RAP continuing to pump smoke out of the Pacific Northwest, send
it across the Northern Rockies into the Dakotas as the upper level
flow regime changes little overall. There is a little less overhead
currently, but more backs in late today. Concerning low level smoke,
there isn`t much evidence for near surface smoke between ASOS/AWOS
visibility sensors and southwest ND/western SD webcams. HRRR/RAP
only bring low level smoke up to the border of the CWA for Saturday,
something to watch.

Next on the list is the convective potential for tonight/Saturday
morning. This is more a classic low level jet setup across
western/central South Dakota with a 25-30kt southerly jet aimed at
central/south central South Dakota, with westerly flow and warm
advection at 700mb. 700mb temperatures are pushing +15C in the post
convective airmass but out ahead its only about +9C. NAM BUFKIT
profiles show quite a bit of elevated instability (3k j/kg) embedded
within unidirectional west-northwesterly flow of about 40kts, though
CAMS are more reserved at 2-2.5k j/kg CAPE. There is only a handful
of j/kg CIN in the NAM profiles as daytime heating kicks in just
ahead of convection. Thus, as storms are progressing east there
could be a window for surface based convection. Convection will have
to walk a fine line as those capping temperatures rapidly spread
east as well. Regardless, residence time in the CWA should be short
as convection presses east at 40kts into southeast South Dakota.
Broadened NBM POPs in time and coverage since for the most part they
were too low for a mention of weather, but stuck to just 20%.

Maybe a northwest flow wave for Saturday night/Sunday morning as
well, briefly suppressing 700mb warm air aloft. Depiction of
convection in the 4km NAM and NSSL WRF associated with an inverted
trough into northeast South Dakota/southeast North Dakota. Even if
not surface based NAM BUFKIT profiles again present us with elevated
CAPE and west northwesterly unidirectional flow which is closer to
40-50kts.

NBM is still pretty bullish for Sunday night/Monday morning in
regards to POPs and the respective NBM probabilities for amounts
hasn`t changed much run-to-run, but looking at deterministic
guidance there is much less of a signal for a northwest flow type
wave at 500mb. There is still a plume of moisture pivoting around
the 4-Corners high from Idaho/Montana/Wyoming before ejecting into
South Dakota. What you end up with is moisture above 600mb with a
skinny elevated CAPE profile. Again, deterministic guidance has
trended down in QPF however, and the main driver appears to be EC
ensembles having more QPF in comparison to GEFS/Canadian, a trend
that starts with the EC deterministic being the main model with QPF
of consequence.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions for all terminals. North winds go light, shift to
southerly for Saturday. Cant rule out an isolated storm towards
the end of the TAF period of KPIR but probabilities too low for
inclusion at this time.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...07