512
FXUS63 KABR 220054 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
754 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry conditions will continue through next Wednesday
  with temperatures around average for this time of year.

- There is a 30-60% chance for showers and thunderstorms during
  the day Sunday into early Sunday evening over central SD,
  expanding to northeastern SD/west central MN Sunday night
  while increasing to a 40-70% chance.

- There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe weather
  Sunday night over much of central to northeastern SD. Brief
  heavy rain, lighting, and strong winds to around 60 mph will
  be the main concern.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 740 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

The showers with some embedded thunder has cleared the southeast
corner of the CWA. Looks like the only remaining mid-level
short-wave in northwest flow is heading into
northwestern/central MN. While the PVA side of this wave can
continue to influence forcing/lift over the far northeast corner
of the CWA, there could be a shower or two straifing
Roberts/Big Stone/Traverse counties from now through ~05Z.
Otherwise, the rest of tonight should be dry with surface high
pressure still building down over the region. No changes to the
tonight period forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Small waves in our otherwise northwesterly flow at 500mb is helping
support clouds and light showers or sprinkles mainly southwest and
north of the forecast area this afternoon. The last of any lingering
light showers should be to our east by 02Z. Otherwise, mainly dry
weather continues through 05Z Sunday.

The 500mb ridge set up to our west looks to push overhead Sunday, as
a surface trough strengthens over western SD/NE. This will bring our
next chance of precipitation, with a 30-60% chance of showers and a
slight chance of thunderstorms over mainly central SD Sunday into
early Sunday evening before expanding/pushing over northeastern SD
and west central MN Sunday night while increasing to 40-70%. As
noted in the previous discussion, with high PW values, heavy rain
will be possible. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) of
severe weather Sunday night over much of central to northeastern SD.
Brief heavy rain, lighting, and strong winds to around 60 mph will
be the main concern if storms develop.

We`ll keep an eye on Monday night into Tuesday as well as the
500mb Canadian low rotates through south central Canada with a
stacked surface low pushing a cold front across our area.
Additional showers or storms will be possible. Otherwise, we`ll
be looking at Thursday afternoon and evening for another round
of showers or thunderstorms. Upper 70s to mid 80s will remain
common through the period, with the highest temperatures Monday
over central SD (a few low 90s possible Monday or Tuesday of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

There`s a rain shower working over KATY right now. Maybe a brief
stint of MVFR visby there between 00Z and 01Z. Otherwise, dry
VFR conditions are forecast through Saturday afternoon.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...10