424
FXUS63 KABR 032319
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
519 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- More steady rain will spread over northeastern SD and west
  central MN, overnight and continue through Wednesday
  afternoon.

- The chance for additional rainfall amounts of a half inch or
  more tonight through the day Wednesday is 50 to 90% along and
  east of the Sisseton Hills, with a 50 to 65% chance for an
  inch or more mainly east of I-29.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 518 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Much of Jones, western Stanley, and far western Corson County
are experiencing some sunshine before the sun goes down. Other
location remain under thick cloud deck. Additional clearing was
noted over the western third of ND. While a few areas mainly
west of the MO River may briefly clear out, it will be short
lived as the train of surface lows stretching from Upper MI
through western WI and IA combine and deepen along the MN/WI
border by daybreak and push a trough across our area. This will
keep clouds in place through much of the daytime hours
Wednesday. Other than increasing cloud cover and increasing
overnight lows around 2-3F, limited changes have been needed to
the ongoing forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1224 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

One low pressure system has moved out and currently resides over the
Great Lakes region with another one that will clip the region,
bringing another round of rain for the eastern half of the CWA.
HRRR/REFS indicate the center of the low is over the borders of
KS/MO/IA as of 18Z. Through the rest of today and into tonight,
this low will track north/northeastward and over MN/WI border
around 12Z Wednesday, deepening a bit along the way and becoming
fairly stacked aloft. With the CWA on the western side of the
system, HRRR/REFS indicate the outer bands of the wrap around
rain moving back in over east central SD late this
afternoon/evening and spreading north and northwestward through
the James Valley (clipping portions of south central SD) through
tonight. These bands of rain will continue over this area into
Wednesday before the rain tapers off northwest to southeast
Wednesday afternoon with the last of precip exiting east central
SD late Wednesday evening.

Confidence is high on this setup with a bit lower confidence on how
far west the rain will reach as any wobble west or east will shift
the cutoff line of rain vs dry. As of now, REFs is quicker with the
onset of rain over eastern SD than HRRR and further west into the
James Valley. Latest run of the NBM has the cutoff line even further
west than REFS/HRRR with pops of 20-90%, with this cut off line from
around Leola to Gann Valley with the highest pops of 70-90% east of
the James River. Otherwise, most of central SD will stay dry as high
pressure remains dominant. Probability of additional rainfall
amounts of a half inch 00Z Wednesday through 00Z Thursday is 50 to
90% Sisseton Hills and eastward (highest SD/MN border) and an inch
or more is 50-65% mainly east of I29. Behind the exiting low, high
pressure will continue to filter in and dry us out Thursday through
Friday with a slightly positive tilted ridge over the region. As of
now, overall dry conditions are forecast into the weekend.

Winds will continue to be gusty through Wednesday due to steeper
pressure gradients across the CWA from this low to our east/southeast
and high to our west. Gusts will range between 20-30kts through
this evening (diminishing slightly overnight)and back up to
around 20-30kts by Wednesday afternoon with highest gusts along
the Coteau. Winds will finally start to diminish northwest to
southeast across the CWA Thursday into Thursday evening and
becoming light as the high moves in. Cooler air continues over
the area with overnight lows forecast to drop into the lower 30s
to around 40. The coolest temps are forecast over north central
SD where we should see a break in the clouds by peak cooling.
If not then temps will be warmer. Highs for Wednesday through
Friday are forecast to range in the 40s to the lower 50s, which
is around normal. Temps will warm to about 5-10 degrees above
normal this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 518 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Look for low end MVFR to IFR conditions to remain across the
area through the period, with VFR ceilings returning to PIR/MBG
by 15/16Z Wednesday. Wind gusts of 20-30kts will be most common
through the day Wednesday at ABR/ATY, with only occasional
gusts near 25kts at PIR/MBG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...MMM
AVIATION...06