340
FXUS63 KABR 300526 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1126 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will average 10 to near 25 degrees above normal
  through Saturday. Normal high temperatures this time of year are
  in the 20s to near 30 degrees.

- Downslope winds will gust around 30 to 40 mph tonight over the
  eastern slopes of the Prairie Coteau and Sisseton Hills.

- Cold air returns early next week with temperatures running about 5
  to 15 degrees below normal.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1123 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025

See updated aviation discussion below.

UPDATE Issued at 905 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025

Current forecast is on track, therefore no changes made at this
time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 129 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025

Not much to hash out in the short term forecast. Well above normal
high temperatures and dry conditions continue through Thursday
night. A reinforcing shot of waa moves in from the west tonight with
a sfc low. As winds shift to the southwest at the sfc and 850mb with
more westerly flow aloft, downslope winds will increase across the
Coteau with gusts to around 40 mph. Winds weaken toward morning as
the low weakens. +6 to +8C air at H85 remains over the region
Thursday leading to highs in the 40s.

Thursday night there`s some weak caa from the north as a very broad
upper trough over Canada briefly nudges into the forecast area with
a sfc high. Lows will fall into the upper teens, accordingly.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 129 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025

The period begins Friday morning with sfc high pressure centered to
our north across south central Canada into northeast ND/northwest
MN. Northerly low level flow through the daytime hours will keep a
lid on any type of warm up, a characteristic we`ve been accustomed
to observing most days this week. Guidance progs 850mb temperatures
to remain in the single digits below zero C through the day which
will result in a "cooler" day compared to how most of this week has
gone. Still, this puts most of our forecast area at least in normal
range if not a bit above normal with highs in the upper 20s to upper
30s. Northwesterly flow aloft will transition to a more zonal or
quasi-zonal pattern this weekend through the middle of next week. An
upper trough entering the Pacific Northwest this weekend will
promote weak mid level energy to kick out over the Northern
Rockies/High Plains into our region. Lee side troughing at the sfc
transitions into an expansive sfc low pressure system from the
Canadian prairie provinces southward into the US Plains through the
course of the upcoming weekend. These types of systems are typically
moisture starved as they cross the Rockies and this will likely play
out in that fashion locally with mainly dry conditions prevailing.

The more organized portion of this system stays well north and any
precip associated with it will follow that track. As this system
moves into the Plains, a warm air advection pattern briefly take
hold Saturday into early Sunday. This will keep our temperature
readings above normal and above freezing on Saturday and to a
certain extent/certain locations on Sunday as well. Guidance does
then prog some changes in terms of the thermal outlook to begin by
late in the weekend into early next week. An arctic front is still
anticipated to push through on Sunday and Sunday night. Temps may
actually max out early in the day before falling as cold air
advection kicks in. 850mb temps will drop into the teens and 20s
below zero C early next week leading to a period of below normal
highs at least through the end of the period. Lows near zero or
single digits just above zero remain the climo for early February
and that`s what we`re still anticipating. Daytime readings will be
stuck in the teens which is a good 5-15 degrees below normal. Along
with this influx of a colder air mass will be the potential to see
some light snow on the cusp of the baroclinic zone that will set up
across portions of the Dakotas into Minnesota late in this period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1123 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will prevail across the area overnight and through
the day Thursday. There will be some low level wind shear around
40 knots at the 2K foot level across the far eastern part of the
area overnight, including at KATY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Parkin
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Vipond
AVIATION...Parkin