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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD
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043 FXUS63 KABR 120542 AAC AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1242 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A sharp cooldown is expected Saturday through early next week with highs in the 60s to low 70s. These temperatures are about 5 to 10 degrees below normal. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026 See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 06Z TAFs. UPDATE Issued at 441 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026 Just a quick update to expand POPs back into the Watertown/Sisseton areas as high clouds shifting east reveals some vigorous cu on Satellite, likewise the vigorous cu field is also showing up on the Clear Lake SDSU mesonet webcam. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 112 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026 Added a few counties to today`s Red Flag Warning, covering all areas along and south of Hwy 14. After the northwest winds increase behind the sfc low, dewpoints behind the dry line to the south of the low will not rise. That puts southern Hand county in min RH of 20 to 25 percent. While not hitting strict RH criteria in the added counties, the 30 to 40 mph wind gusts are sufficiently high enough for high to very high grassland fire danger and merited the headline. Hi-res models continue to be less than impressed with storm chances in northeast SD this evening keeping everything in west central MN starting at 0z. Still, with dewpoints in the 60s ahead of the low and steep lapse rates, if anything does develop around the cold front, it will be severe. Looking at a relatively short window of time, though, with the fropa. Strong winds and large hail look to be the main threats, especially back in SD. Much cooler, fall-like temperatures push in behind the low with highs in the 60s to lower 70s. As another low moves into the Plains Sunday and Monday, rain and clouds could suppress temperatures even more, perhaps holding them in the 50s. There is a marginal risk on Sunday for areas south of Hwy 12. That`s generally associated more with a potential 30 to 40 kt llj and passing shortwaves Sunday night as instability/forcing will be limited otherwise. Additional chances for rain arrive on Wednesday before high pressure and upper ridging build in for Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are forecast for all terminals with a north northwest wind component. Isolated high-based showers/sprinkles/virga are expected across the region during the TAF valid period. Will make adjustments to TAFs as needed. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...10 DISCUSSION...20 AVIATION...10 |
Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Aberdeen, SD (ABR) Office Forecast Discussions.
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