595
FXUS63 KABR 281738
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1238 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Western wildfire smoke may impact visibility at times across the
region through this evening.

- Temperatures remain 5 to 15 degrees above normal through at least
mid-week.

- A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather is in place over
parts of far north central South Dakota Wednesday evening. Wind
gusts of 60 miles per hour will be the main severe threat.

- A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather is in place over
central and northeast SD into west central MN for Thursday. The main
hazard will be wind gusts of 60 mph.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

As of 12:30 PM CDT, temperatures are in the 80s with winds out of
the south to southwest. There is a good amount of elevated smoke in
the area resulting in hazy skies and some surface level smoke mainly
around the Missouri River bringing some slight reductions in
visibility. There is about a 30% chance for some precipitation today
across northeast SD. There could be some weak thunderstorms
producing some small hail and/or wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph but
organized severe storms are not expected. Timing for storms is
between 5 and 10 PM CDT.

A shortwave moves across the region Thursday bringing a chance for
storms starting Wednesday evening. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1
out of 5) for severe storms over Corson county, main hazard will be
wind gusts of 60-70 mph. Precipitation chances of 40 to 50% spread
east through the overnight and during the day Thursday, increasing
to 70 to 90% for the afternoon and evening hours. There is a
Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe storms across the entire
forecast area. The main threat with these storms will be strong wind
gusts of at least 60 mph. There is also potential for heavy rain.
PWAT values east of the Missouri River range from 1 to 2 inches.
With how dry we have been there may be a chance for some localized
flash flooding over northeast SD but confidence is somewhat low. The
Weather Prediction Center has highlighted areas along and east of
the James River in a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 4) for excessive
rainfall. Timing for severe storm development will be dependent on
frontal progression.

Friday through Monday looks to be generally dry. There are a couple
slight chances for precip along the ND/SD border, but nothing about
20%. Models are starting to show some increased chances for Tuesday
but that`s 7 days out so few details are available. Temperatures
through the rest of the work week will be a little cooler with highs
in the 80s before we see another increase for the weekend. Then it
looks like we will have another slight cool down for next work week.
Winds Sunday look to gust to 30 to 40 mph as low pressure moves in
behind high pressure. Gusts of 30-35 mph will continue into Monday
as a low moves into the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Smoke continues this afternoon around KABR, KATY, and KMBG,
reducing visibilities to 5 or 6 SM. Showers/weak thunderstorms
will move in around KABR and KATY later this afternoon and
evening. Confidence is low on exact locations of the
precipitation so went with prob30.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...13