651
FXUS63 KABR 152332
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
632 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy to areas of fog may develop tonight into Sunday
  morning.

- There is a marginal risk (1 out of 5) for severe
  thunderstorms Monday evening through Monday night east of a
  line from Frederick to Murdo.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 632 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Confidence is only moderate to low on the development of fog
overnight. However, we can`t compeltely rule it out given the
small dewpoint depression and light winds as high pressure
builds in from the northwest.

Otherwise, the ongoing forecast remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 114 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to nudge into east
central SD this afternoon, though the activity has mainly stayed
south of Hwy 212. This is all associated with a shortwave and
elongated sfc trough along the MN/SD border. Humid but generally dry
conditions are expected behind this trough as sfc high pressure
builds in from the northwest tonight. Lighter winds and latent
moisture will likely lead to fog redeveloping tonight into Sunday
morning across the area.

When the high exits Sunday night, additional shortwaves and a weak
llj may gin up some showers, but more widespread precipitation
chances are not anticipated until a cold front moves through Monday
night and Tuesday. There is a marginal risk (1 out of 5) for severe
storms Monday night with the front, and that risk will probably
extend into Tuesday though location is still tenuous. While any sfc
focus shifts south, shortwave activity will increase across South
Dakota on Tuesday. At a minimum, this additional energy will bring
increased chances for locally heavy rain. The active and wet pattern
finally seems to wane in the latter half of the upcoming week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 632 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast to continue over the next 24 hours.
The main concern will be near MVFR ceilings initially at
MBG/ABR/ATY that should be exiting with the loss of daytime
heating early in the period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...06