155
FXUS63 KABR 152335
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
635 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread precipitation chances of 70-90% move into mainly
  north central to northeastern SD/west central MN Wednesday,
  along with some weak thunderstorms. No severe weather is
  expected at this time.

- There is a 70% chance of winds out of the northwest gusting
  greater than 45 mph Wednesday afternoon west of the Missouri
  River.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 627 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Still getting some random wind gusts in excess of 40-50 mph out
in central South Dakota with microburst from mid level showers.
We also have some low topped storms, one even did a split north
of Faulkton, but too low to support hail larger than 1/2 inch.
Things should quiet down with loss of daytime heating. See below
for an update to the aviation discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 418 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

A shortwave/surface trough, strong winds already at the surface and
daytime mixing is resulting in showers and weak thunderstorms
producing winds gusting 40-60mph this afternoon. Severe Thunderstorm
Warnings and Special Weather Statements continue to be issued. A
marginal risk (winds) of severe weather remains from SPC.

While most solutions do not indicate the potential for fog, the NAM
based family of models are highlighting portions of the Prairie
Coteau for fog overnight into Tuesday morning. We`ll continue to
monitor the latest trends and add in fog if needed, especially given
the light to moderate rain that will fall over the area.

There is another round of afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms is forecast for Tuesday. Even with the chance of
precipitation, relative humidity will be able to fall into the 25 to
35 percent range Tuesday afternoon. Winds out of the west will gust
20 to 25 mph, so much lighter than today.

Winds will be a concern Wednesday, gusting out of the northwest
winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. The strongest winds will
be west of the James River, and mainly strongest west of the MO
River. Wind headlines will be needed when the time gets closer.
Unsettled weather will continue, with temperatures mainly in the 70s
to low 80s through the week and into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 627 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions for all terminals with northwest winds, sometimes
gusty, though the evening. Showers again during peak heating for
Tuesday but too scattered to time into TAFS at current.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...07