164
FXUS63 KABR 041120 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
620 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather
  this evening over northeastern South Dakota. The main threat
  will be wind gusts of 60 miles per hour.

- Another Marginal Risk is in place for storms developing Monday
  afternoon and evening. The main severe threats during that
  time frame will be hail of 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts
  of 60 to 70 miles per hour.

- Temperatures roughly 5 to 10 degrees above normal (highs in
  the upper 80s to low 90s) are expected through at least the
  start of next week. There is potential for a cooldown closer
  to normal (highs in the mid 80s) by mid-week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 617 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Storms across the region have mainly dissipated early this morning,
and just some lingering showers to weak thunderstorms remain.
Keeping an eye on some storms in western SD/ND moving across the
state line, but all guidance points to these storms dissipating
completely before reaching the Aberdeen CWA. Other than that, light
winds and full relative humidity recovery will lead to some chances
for patchy fog this morning, particularly over the James River
Valley. The main limitation to fog development this morning will be
cloud cover limiting the radiative cooling, but surface observations
as of 06Z this morning already indicate dew point depressions
ranging from 3 to 5 degrees, so not much further to go to produce
fog.

Model guidance does show some convergence towards some scattered
thunderstorm potential over northeastern South Dakota in particular
this evening (with some isolated chances elsewhere). Can`t entirely
rule out a stray severe gust due to some marginal DCAPE (~800-900
J/kg) in the area, but overall not expecting much out of these
storms. Still, there is a Marginal Risk in place due to the severe
wind threat, located over parts of northeastern South Dakota and
western Minnesota. Sunday has trended towards a drier forecast,
providing a bit of a break from the perpetual scattered showers the
area has been under recently.

This break won`t last long however, since severe weather chances are
expected to return for the beginning of the work week. A broad upper-
level ridge over the western and central CONUS will allow ample
moisture into the region, coupled with a series of waves riding
along the top of the ridge providing some potential for lift in the
area. Monday specifically, environmental conditions appear favorable
for both wind and hail as potential hazards. Strong MUCAPE of 2000-
3000+ J/kg will be in place, and mid-level lapse rates upwards of
7.5-8 C/km will be present as well. The potential limitation would
be shear, with early looks at model soundings showing the
environment to struggle getting upwards of 30 knots. On the wind
side of things, there will be pockets of ample (>1000 J/kg) DCAPE,
assisted by low-level lapse rates near dry adiabatic. With the
expected lack of shear mentioned above, collapsing storms would
likely be the primary offender for severe wind gusts. Tornadoes do
not look favorable under this environment due to very weak low-level
shear (