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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD
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000 FXUS63 KABR 291109 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 609 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Afternoon) Issued at 408 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022 The generally quiet weather pattern over the Northern Plains will continue for a couple more days at least. Currently, energy is digging into the Northern Rockies, with flat ridging continuing over the Western High Plains. That digging energy will result in a cutoff low over the Northern Rockies within about 24 hrs. Then the low is not expected to move much for the next 48-60 hrs. Any pcpn associated with this system will remain west of the ABR CWA through at least Friday. Meanwhile, a couple of weak s/ws are forecast to ride the ridge and come across the region today/tonight. For now it appears conditions will remain dry with only some virga looking possible from mid level cloudiness. Soundings just look too dry to support any measurable pcpn. Temperatures will continue to be above to well above normal under ridging aloft, and those warm/mild temps are expected to persist through the upcoming weekend per 2m/H850 temp anomalies. Lastly, winds will again be a bit breezy/windy across especially the eastern CWA. Grassland fire danger is again likely to reach the very high category over much of the forecast area. However, lowest afternoon relative humidity appears to bottom out around 30-35 percent within the highest wind corridor. So, for now, will handle the fire danger with a Special Weather Statement. .LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Wednesday) Issued at 408 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022 At the start of the period Friday evening, models are in good agreement about the placement of a cut-off upper-low across the northern Rockies, and about this feature being underneath an anonymously strong/amplified upper ridge. At the surface, low pressure will most likely be positioned across western/central South Dakota. Despite the development of a LLJ and associated lift across eastern SD (~20kt 850mb mean from the ECMWF/NAEFS), precipitation chances will be higher further west in the state, nearer the highest low-level moisture and shortwave energy rotating around the upper- low. The main challenge is determining the movement and evolution of this low (can be a big challenge), as this will dictate precipitation chances (or the continued lack there-of, and thus a continued potential for fire danger). The WPC Cluster Page reveals continued good agreement in the presence of a cut-off low through 00z Sun to 00z Mon, with only 24% of the total ensembles evolving it into an open wave (this feature in either form still centered across the Northern Rockies). Potential solutions diverge more by 00z Mon to 00z Tue, with about 51% of the ensembles depicting a more progressive open wave entering the Northern Plains (mainly GEFS) and the other 49% maintaining a closed upper-low across Montana (mainly ECMWF). A faster evolution to a progressive open wave would bring unsettled conditions/precipitation chances sooner. By the end of the period, during the middle of the week, this system exits east and a more conventional upper-level ridge to the west of the area and upper-trough to the east appears. Temperatures should remain above average out ahead of the upper-low with persistent southerly winds, and then decrease to near normal readings as the system moves through. Confidence remains below normal on exact timing of this shift, as described above. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning) Issued at 608 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR skies/vsbys are expected through today along with gusty winds. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TDK LONG TERM...Lueck AVIATION...TDK
Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Aberdeen, SD (ABR) Office Forecast Discussions.
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