510
FXUS63 KABR 231615
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1115 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong sustained west winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts from 45 to
  55 mph are expected through the day over central/north central
  SD.

- Red Flag conditions will be occurring over northeastern SD and
  west central MN this afternoon as relative humidity values
  will fall below 25 percent and winds will be gusting 30 to 40
  mph. If a fire were to ignite, it could become difficult to
  control or suppress.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1106 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Just a quick update regarding Wind Advisory and Red Flag
conditions. For the Wind Advisory, CAMS have a slight increase
in winds west river but overall only subtle changes in regards
to timing, though its been a little delayed here. For the Red
Flag, there is a narrow ribbon of better mixing anticipated with
the southwest component, but winds are shifting to west faster and
CAMS indicate some moisture pooling along this trough/front.
Thereafter, the better mixing to the west will cause dewpoints
to drop again, but along with that is the cold advection. Thus
the window for Red Flag is narrowing in our area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

As of 07z, a couple scattered areas and lines of convection are
moving over the James River Valley. This convection has been
producing lots of lightening but the severe wind threat has been
weakening through the night. The storms will continue moving east
through the early morning. The cold front that the storms are
developing on will be moving through northeastern SD this morning,
with chances of showers and convection develop along the front
decreasing through the morning. Some models have rain moving into
north central SD this afternoon while others stop anything from
developing due to the lack of moisture. Because of this, there is a
15-30% chance for scattered rain showers early in the afternoon over
north central SD.

The surface low pressure will continue to sit over ND today, helping
to create strong winds over central and northeastern SD. Winds over
central SD have a 50-90% chance to gust up to and above 45 mph
today, as well as have sustained winds over 30 mph in some areas.
Because of this, a Wind Advisory has been issued for areas west of
the James River. Northeastern SD will have lighter winds that could
still gust up to 35 mph at times. Additionally, even though there
are some chances for rain to move through northeastern SD in the
morning, RH values will be getting below 25% for areas east of the
James River. The stronger winds and lower humidity values will lead
to some fire weather conditions during the afternoon. As such a Red
Flag Warning has been issued for northeastern SD and west central MN
this afternoon.

The surface low will retrograde back to the northwest tonight, which
will help to decrease the stronger wind gusts over central and
northeastern SD Friday and into the weekend. Temperatures will be
cooling behind the cold front today into the weekend. Around average
to about 10 degrees below normal temperatures are expected, with
highs in the low to mid 50s. Some of the models show some scattered
rain showers developing Friday evening into Saturday over central and
northeast SD, but this will depend on if there is moisture in the
atmosphere for it. Currently there is a 20-35% chance for light rain
showers Friday night into Saturday over central and northeastern SD.
QPF amounts look to be less than 0.1 inch.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 628 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Gusty
westerly surface winds are forecast today from 30 to perhaps as
high as 40-45 knots. Highest winds expected across KPIR/KMBG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for SDZ007-008-
     011-019>023.
     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for
     SDZ003>005-009-010-015.
     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for
     SDZ006-016>018-033>037-045-048-051.
MN...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...TMT