910
FXUS63 KABR 231056
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
556 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- KABR radar is unavailable at this time. A local technician has
looked at the issue and a part will be on order. The return to
service is unknown at this time. Alternative radars include KBIS,
KMVX, KMPX, KFSD, KLNX, and KUDX.

- Disorganized area of showers and storms coming in from western
South Dakota this morning. Severe weather unlikely with this round
moisture.

- Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for isolated severe storms this
afternoon/early evening along and east of the James valley into
western Minnesota. Main threat is quarter sized hail, but there
could be isolated gusts of 60 mph as well.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 556 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

UPDATE for 12Z TAF discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Still looking at convection rolling through this morning continuing
to weaken. Daytime destabilization related re-invigoration across
the James valley and points east is still on as well, with cool/dry
air aloft and unidirectional shear that presents with both a hail
and wind threat.

The upper low tracks over eastern North Dakota for Wednesday, and
flow aloft continues to increase, however NAM BUFKIT profiles show
that despite the relatively cool temperatures aloft (700mb temps of
0 to +2C across the northeast CWA), profiles are stable above the
boundary layer. Thus, expecting vigorous daytime driven cumulus
topping out between 8-10kft, likely too shallow for precipitation
generation.

Dry conditions until the next wave, a weak one crossing west to east
across the Northern Rockies. This system weakens even farther after
ejecting in the western Dakotas, with the main wave pivoting
northwards, depriving much of the CWA of any sort of upper support.
Deterministic NBM mean is up around 1/2" while the forecast is
running at between 1/3" to essentially nothing east of the James
valley. Probability of exceeding 1" is focused around the Pierre
area at 30%.

Main focus remains on the upper low moving down into the Pac NW for
the weekend, then looping across the Northern Rockies/Great Basin
before lifting up into Montana/southern Canada. This causes a strong
ridge to develop across the eastern CONUS and places us in a strong
southwest flow regime Sunday and Monday.  Granted we`re still 160-
180 out so timing/track will likely shift, but timing on the
shortwave is Sunday night lifting up across the western Dakotas. The
EC/GFS are well aligned, the Canadian is lagging. The surface low
also mostly moves across Montana and the far western Dakotas. We`re
kind of on the southern periphery of all this. Will also have to
contend with a plume of very warm air aloft, with the GFS now maxing
out around +18C at 700mb, but as is the trend in both the
EC/Canadian... much cooler aloft. GEFS is continuing to step up
slightly and is getting closer to the 2 standard deviation
threshold.

With regard to temperatures, fairly good confidence through the end
of the work week, with this mild airmass and seasonal tolerable
humidity. For the weekend, we are seeing a direct fetch from both
the Gulf and Central/Southern Plains where dewpoints have been well
into the 70s. NBM 25th/75th percentile are also showing a high
degree of uncertainty for temperatures this weekend (~10F).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 556 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

To start the period light showers will be near PIR. Otherwise,
low chances of precipitation will move across ABR/ATY during
the daytime hours today, with scatted afternoon showers and
thunderstorms possible. However, chances are low enough to not
be added to the TAFs at this time. Other than the initial
showers at PIR, only VCSH have been mentioned at ATY mid morning
until 18Z. MVFR ceilings will be possible in a TEMPO fashion at
PIR through 16Z or with any thunderstorms that may develop this
afternoon east.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...06