427
FXUS63 KABR 051142 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
642 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) is in place for storms
  developing Monday afternoon and evening. The main severe
  threats during that time frame will be hail of 1 inch in
  diameter and wind gusts of 60 miles per hour.

- Chances for severe storms return on Tuesday, and a Slight Risk
  (Level 2 of 5) for much of the forecast area. All severe
  threats, including wind of 60 to 70 miles per hour, hail of 1
  inch in diameter, tornadoes, and heavy rainfall leading to
  flash flooding.

- Temperatures roughly 5 to 10 degrees above normal (highs in
  the upper 80s to low 90s) are expected through Tuesday.
  Temperatures are expected to cool slightly to highs in the low
  to mid 80s beginning Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 639 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

A much needed break from thunderstorms today with a dry forecast in
place. Main forecast concern is the potential for fog to develop
once again this morning near sunrise. Fog development will be
possible due to light and variable winds as well as clear skies,
with the best chances over northeastern South Dakota and western
Minnesota, as well as along the James River Valley (albeit to a
lesser extent than other areas). Visibility may drop below a mile at
times, and can`t quite rule out the possibility of a Dense Fog
Advisory this morning depending on how things play out. Dew point
depressions are already (as of the 06Z observations) less than three
degrees in many places over northeastern South Dakota and western
Minnesota. Otherwise, expect more of the same today in terms of high
temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal (into the 90s across the
region). Some slightly stronger southeasterly winds gusting up to 25
to 35 miles per hour will arrive along and west of the Missouri
River in the afternoon, and will continue overnight tonight.

Development along a cold front Monday will bring about the return of
the severe weather potential across the region. Main severe concern
at this time is the wind potential, with strong low-level lapse
rates (>8 C/km) and DCAPE > 1000 J/kg in place. Early looks at CAMs
are also signaling the potential for storms to evolve into a QLCS
storm mode by the time they make their way into the Aberdeen
forecast area, which further supports the wind potential. Hail may
be a secondary concern, as ample CAPE (potentially upwards of 2000
J/kg) and mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km will be in place. A
lack of shear may be a problem, but given how recent similar setups
have played out, this may not be a barrier to severe hail. Not
anticipating favorable conditions for tornado development at this
time, mainly given the very high LCLs in the area.

Another round of severe weather will be possible on Tuesday. The
aforementioned front is expected to settle in over the region and
become stationary, and convection appears possible during the
daytime along that front, mainly over northeastern South Dakota.
Increased chances for rain arrive during the evening to overnight
period Tuesday into Wednesday, over 80% PoPs over the entire
forecast area. At this point, it appears that a fairly favorable
CAPE/Shear environment will be in place to sustain a hail threat,
particularly during the afternoon time frame Tuesday where 700-500
lapse rates are the strongest. The wind threat will likely remain
contingent on exactly where the boundary sets up. Due to capping
from the front, low-level lapse rates north of the boundary will be
quite poor and gusts will have difficulty reaching the surface.
Areas to the south (in the warm sector) will have a bit better
conditions for wind due to the stronger low-level lapse rates.
Tornadoes also appear possible Tuesday, supported by a combination
of widespread 0-3km helicity upwards of 200 m2/s2, LCLs generally
1000m or less, and pockets of low-level wind shear upwards of 25
knots. Confidence remains fairly low still, but worth keeping an eye
on as it approaches. Flash flooding due to excessive rainfall will
also be a threat, and a Slight Risk ERO is in place in addition to
the Slight severe weather outlook. Looking at the latest NBM 24 hour
QPF through Wednesday morning, 90th percentile values (which would
be more in line with thunderstorms tracking over the region) sit
around 3-3.5" at peak over far northeastern South Dakota and western
Minnesota, which at this time range warrants a closer look at the
potential moving forward. Luckily, soil saturation in that area
remains fairly low at this time The caveat to that is that Monday`s
storms may track over the same area, so we may not be able to rely
on those dry soils to abate some of the potential threat.

Extended severe weather risk models also highlight potential for
severe storms Wednesday and Thursday, albeit to a lesser extent than
Tuesday. Outside of severe chances, expect temperatures to remain in
the upper 80s to low 90s through at least the start of the week. By
the middle of the week, indications are that the upper-level pattern
will transition to near-zonal flow over the Northern Plains, which
will facilitate a slight cooldown to near-normal (highs in the mid
80s).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 639 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

After some morning ground fog (sub-VFR), all four terminals are
forecast to experience good VFR conditions throughout the TAF
valid period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...10