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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD
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201 FXUS63 KABR 192358 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 658 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Fog, with visibilities around 3 miles, is expected across far northeastern South Dakota and west central Minnesota overnight into Friday morning. - High temperatures Friday and Saturday will average 25 to 35 degrees above normal. Expect more seasonal temperatures briefly for Sunday, with highs in the 40s to low 50s. - Fire weather concerns remain over central South Dakota through Saturday, with afternoon gusts 20-25 mph Friday and Saturday. Watch for winds shifting out of a northerly direction and increasing with gusts around 30 mph late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. && .UPDATE... Issued at 658 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026 Very dry conditions continue west of the MO River. Portions of central and western Corson and Dewey Counties of north central SD are still experiencing gusts of 25-35mph. These winds will slowly diminish over the next couple of hours with the loss of daytime heating/mixing. Record high temperatures occurred today at Mobridge, Pierre, and Aberdeen. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1224 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026 Just a quick reflection on the NBM handling of temperatures yesterday and how might it look going forward, the NBM was still 3 to 5 degrees too cool in central/north central SD and as much as 8 degrees too cool in the northeast. I`m going to chalk that up to an influence of snow cover which does`t appear have quite the signal in the current run with much warmer temperatures forecast for the northeast moving forwards. A little less bias in NBM high temperatures Today/Friday/Saturday showing up in comparison to 24 hours ago, but we are still seeing about a 2-5 degree cool bias in comparison to the NBM 50th percentile for today and closer to 2-3 degrees in general for tomorrow. For Saturday, with a low developing overhead and frontal passage aiding in mixing, particularly in northeastern South Dakota there is little difference between the deterministic and mean NBM output for high temperatures. As for dewpoints/humidity. So far today is on track with some 40+ degree dewpoints lingering, and while a little drier out west they remain well within the realm NBM/CAM output. Thus, not making any wholesale adjustments to dewpoints/relative humidity. Same goes for winds, though cold advection in the wake of Saturdays system may add a bit of gustiness. Fire weather remains the chief concern given the abnormal warmth and drying fuels. So far, Friday and Saturday are marginal for Red Flag conditions if at all. Situation is a bit more complicated with the system passage Saturday, however since that is in the late afternoon/evening it will only be an issue if any fires are ongoing. NBM Sunday temperatures are closer to Climo, however going into next week, with an upper pattern that features a pair of weak waves through mid week, we will see brief surges of milder air but nothing on the scale of what is going on currently. Still a bit of uncertainty with these features and how they impact temperatures, with spread in the NBM 25th-75th ranges 10 degrees for highs Tuesday and 20 degrees for highs Wednesday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 658 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are expected to continue at all sites over the next 24 hours. The only exception is the potential for fog to develop overnight, but with less coverage than what occurred last night. TEMPO was included from 10-14Z at ATY for 3 miles visibility due to fog. We will continue to monitor the latest trends, and may need to update this TAF through the night due to fog development. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...06 DISCUSSION...07 AVIATION...06 |
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NWS Aberdeen, SD (ABR) Office Forecast Discussions.
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