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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 130155 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
855 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020

Issued at 848 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020

There`s a pretty good EML/mid-level capping inversion in place
across the western CWA right now. Still expecting convection to
develop along the boundary approaching from the west/northwest
overnight when the low level jet develops. But, most of this
activity should stay off to the northwest in NoDak, and move off
to the northeast overnight. This CWA should stay mainly dry

UPDATE Issued at 639 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020

The main challenge in the short term period is thunderstorm chances
Monday afternoon and Monday night.

Surface high pressure will exit the region to the east tonight ahead
of an approaching low pressure system and associated frontal
boundary. The front will slowly track across the state on Monday,
with breezy winds ushering warm and humid air up into the region. This
will set up fairly unstable conditions across the east by mid to
late afternoon. There will be some shear, around 30-40 knots, in
this area as well, but the better area of shear will lag behind the
front. Will also see a fairly strong CAP during the afternoon hours,
with H7 temps of +12 to +14 deg C. Therefore, expect convection may
have a hard time getting going Monday afternoon, but may see a
better chance of some post frontal general shower and thunderstorm
activity Monday night as the CAP weakens and a weak LLJ develops
over the western and central part of the state. The entire CWA is in
the SPC risk area, Marginal Risk west and Slight Risk east, but the
afternoon capping inversion will likely be the deciding factor for
convective development. Will keep POPs a bit lower in the afternoon
because of this, then increase them into the high chance category
Monday night.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the 60s, with highs on Monday in
the 80s to lower 90s. Lows on Monday night will range from the mid
50s west to the lower 60s east.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020

For the start of the out period, some lingering convection may
remain in the region early Tuesday with the passage of a cold
front, especially along the I-29 corridor and parts of southern
SD. As the day goes on though, surface high pressure begins to
move into the state and sets up a dry and seasonal middle of the
week. Upper level pattern starts out mostly zonal mid-week, but
transitions to northwest flow as an upper ridge moves eastward out
of the Rockies. This will set up a warming trend approaching the
weekend. NAEFS 850mb temps are expected in the 90th percentile or
greater for Friday and Saturday, where we may see temps reach into
the 90s. Also approaching the weekend models do hint at a few
shots of s/w energy riding over the northwest flow , bringing
continued chances for showers/storms moving into this coming
weekend. NAEFS QPF increases in the upper 90 percentiles by
Fri/Sat, which looks to be the next best chance for precip after
the system earlier this week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020


Good VFR conditions are forecast to prevail across the area
through the TAF valid period.

***Construction to improve the taxiway for runway 13 at the KPIR
terminal may cause an occasional temporary visibility reduction due
to blowing dust (bldu), mainly during daytime hours UFN.***





Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Aberdeen, SD (ABR) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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