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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD
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090 FXUS63 KABR 040155 AAB AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 855 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a Slight Risk (2 of 5) for severe weather late this evening and into the early overnight hours over the Missouri River Valley. Main hazards will be large hail of 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts of 60 to 70 miles per hour. - Near to above normal temperatures are expected throughout the seven day forecast, with the warmest readings, possibly as much as 10 degrees above normal, running up into the low 90s over the weekend and into the start of next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 853 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026 Severe Watch 446 for Jones county will expire at the top of the hour. While thunderstorms are expected to move through the area over the next few hours, widespread severe weather is not expected. UPDATE Issued at 645 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026 Updated for the 00Z Aviation Discussion below. Minor updates to the forecast this evening, largely for the PoP/Sky forecast to capture the latest trends in the expected evolution through the night. This led to a decrease in PoPs across much of the area based on the latest CAMs and current environment over the area. Ample MLCIN shown on SPC MesoA data, although still plenty of MUCAPE, will likely limit any development on the surface boundaries across the area as seen on KABR radar. With no notable mid-upper level forcing present either, think the main potential will be tied to the ongoing convection in western SD. This will continue to the east- southeast with time and move across areas along/southwest of Stanley county along the Missouri River. Continued to show the highest PoPs there and will need to monitor a potential extension of the current severe thunderstorm watch (until 9 PM CDT) with time and or area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 209 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026 The short term portion of the forecast is complex and challenging. Continuous convection from central SD northwest into southeast Montana from this morning has caused an abundance of cloud cover over the western half of the CWA. Marginally strong severe developed over east-central SD earlier this morning within a zone of modest instability ahead of a surface low pressure system. The current thinking is more robust convective develop later this afternoon over the Black Hills, and perhaps northeastern Wyoming where there are remnants of outflow boundaries and at least some destabilization. The storms may organize into a bowing MCS and track south-east during the evening and overnight hours. Damaging winds and hail will be the main threats with the bowing MCS. It is entirely possible these storms track south of this CWA, or perhaps click the southwest portion. A bit further northern track may cause localized flooding in Jones, Lyman, and Stanley counties due to recent heavy rainfall. Another scenario to monitor is convection across southwestern ND. A few CAMS suggest this convection will track mostly eastward, mainly north of the state line. However, a slight deviation southward will lead to more widespread coverage. Overall, went conservative on pops tonight into Saturday morning, mainly due to the current state of the and some support from CAMS. As of now, Saturday and Sunday appears mostly dry with perhaps a few showers and storms over the eastern CWA on Saturday. The weather pattern overall remains active through next week with additional rounds of thunderstorms. Seasonal temperatures are expected with highs in the 80s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 645 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Chances remain less than 20-25% for thunderstorms at the TAF sites tonight. Watching thunderstorms in western SD and expect them to skirt to the southwest of KPIR tonight, but will keep monitoring for potential addition to the TAFs. Otherwise, did add a brief mention of ground fog at KABR around daybreak. Heading into the afternoon tomorrow, could see some thunderstorms developing near KABR/KATY, but not high enough confidence to add as a PROB30. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...SRF DISCUSSION...SD AVIATION...SRF |
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