326
FXUS63 KABR 172313 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
613 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Brisk winds and below normal temperatures will persist into the
  upcoming weekend.

- Mainly dry conditions are expected this weekend into the first
  half of next week with temperatures warming back above normal
  next week.

- Elevated fire weather conditions will return on Monday as gusty
  winds and low relative humidity values are expected.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 612 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

The forecast remains on track this evening. No major changes are
planned.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Brisk northwest winds have continued to persist this afternoon
across most of the forecast area. Temperatures have been a function
of cloud cover today. There have been more sunny breaks in the
overcast to downright clearing than previously expected and that has
been enough to boost temperatures into the upper 40s to near 50
degrees where sunshine has been more prevalent. Where more clouds
have persisted(central SD & our far eastern zones), temperatures
remained in the 30s to low 40s. After this morning`s precip exited
our far eastern zones around midday, another band of precip has
formed across southwest/south-central SD this afternoon and has been
tracking northeast toward the Pierre area and the I-90 corridor.

For the remainder of this afternoon into the evening, a couple of
showers or more than likely sprinkles will be possible in those
south/southwest zones and possibly stretching far enough northeast
to reach parts of the James Valley. Very little if any measurable
moisture will come of this activity. The local pressure gradient
will remain fairly taught into this evening promoting northwest
breezes to continue but some improvements are expected later this
evening into the overnight. Sfc high pressure will remain centered
far enough west across the Northern High Plains on Saturday and a
fairly deep mixing environment will allow brisk northwest wind gusts
of 25-35 mph to develop by midday and persist through the afternoon.
High pressure will attempt to nudge into our region toward the end
of the day so anticipate winds will fall off by either late
afternoon or early evening. A cold air mass will remain in place on
Saturday with 850mb temps ranging from -10C in our east to near 0C
in our south and west. Highs are likely to remain in the 40s to low
50s. Normal highs for this time of year are in the mid 50s to around
60 degrees. Short range and hi-res guidance does hint at some light
precip possibilities for our northeast zones late Saturday/early
Sunday with a possible back-door cold front or weak upper wave.
Ensemble PoPs remain rather low for now in those areas and some
expansion or increase in values may be needed if conditions turn
more favorable.

Sfc high pressure will build in from the north and northeast on
Sunday keeping the cooler than normal trend in place. 850mb temps
will modify some but remain cool with -5C in our northeast to about
+8C in our southwest. This should help central SD get back closer to
normal with highs in the upper 50s to around 60s but farther east,
afternoon temps will remain in the mid 40s to low 50s. As the high
slips southeast of our area on Monday, we will pick up a southerly
wind as shortwave ridging starts to build into the Northern Plains.
Temperatures will warm back to normal if not above normal as early
as Monday. With southerly winds increasing on Monday and warmer
temperatures moving in, relative humidity values will fall to
critical levels promoting an increase in the Grassland Fire Danger
index and leading to another round of elevated fire danger concern.
Longer range trends going into midweek are still leaning on warmer
than normal temperatures and dry conditions persisting. This may
lead to additional fire weather concerns Tuesday into Wednesday as
well. With an upper trough expected to shift into the western CONUS
by the middle of next week, our local trends will turn potentially
more active with increasing chance for precipitation toward the
latter half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 612 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through Saturday afternoon.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...20
DISCUSSION...Vipond
AVIATION...20