000
FXUS63 KABR 190529 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1229 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy again on Friday, continued cooler than normal. A few
  showers possible Friday afternoon.

- Below normal temperatures through Saturday before warming back to
  near normal to above normal by early next week.

- The next chance of rain (40-70%) will be on Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Updated discussion for the 06Z TAFs below.

UPDATE Issued at 906 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Current forecast is on track, therefore no changes made at this
time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Cold core low centered over Canada will continue to track slowly
east through the early part of the weekend, keeping the northern
CONUS under a coolish cyclonic flow. Meanwhile, the gusty winds this
afternoon will subside some tonight, but then reinvigorate Friday
afternoon, due to daytime heating, and cold temps aloft. After
looking at CAMS, am also inclined to include isold/sct diabatically
driven showers on Friday. With deep mixing again on Friday, gusty
winds will occur. Not sure on coverage of wind advisory criteria
winds, but could be close.  No headlines for now, but winds today
did over achieve to some degree. Temperatures will remain below
average through Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

The beginning of this period will start off markedly chilly but all
indications from both deterministic and ensemble guidance is this
cooler than normal trend will be brief. We anticipate temperatures
will begin to modify early next week and be back to at least normal
if not above normal through the end of the period. The upper flow
pattern by 12Z Saturday will feature a 500mb low continuing to
retreat eastward across eastern Canada with an associated upper
trough extending westward across the north central portion of the
United States. Northwesterly flow aloft will eventually relax as we
see upper ridging briefly move overhead in advance of the next mid
level wave coming ashore in the PacNW. This wave will be our next
precip maker early next week before drier conditions return by the
middle of next week.

Sfc ridging will be shifting eastward out of MT and WY into the
western Dakotas by Saturday morning. This will continue to maintain
a northwesterly low level flow with still a bit of a gradient
hanging on across our eastern zones. Saturday will continue to
feature northwest breezes and cool temperatures. Starting the day
off below freezing in the 20s will only be able to improve to around
50 degrees or so by afternoon. The ridge axis is progged to shift
across our forecast area on Sunday. Once this takes place, we should
pick up on southerly low level flow and start to pull in a warm air
mass. Daytime readings will be back in the upper 50s to low 60s on
Sunday. Anticipate a fair amount of sunshine through the weekend, so
at least we`ll have that to help things along. Clouds will thicken
up by Sunday night as the next low pressure system approaches. This
wave is set to move through the Dakotas on Monday and deliver a
decent chance(40-70%) of rain across our forecast areas. Now, at
this point this system looks progressive so we aren`t expecting a
steady, long duration rainfall. Expected amounts at this point
aren`t too impressive. Perhaps most locales see up to a couple
tenths of inch or less. NBM probabilities for seeing at least a
quarter of inch in 24 hrs from Monday morning to Tuesday morning
range from 20-35 percent. After this wave departs by Tuesday
morning, we should be back into a mostly dry pattern. Guidance
remains up in the air very late in the period with respect to our
next rain chances. There`s a possibility that another wave affects
us by Thursday while other solutions remain dry.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions continue at all TAF sites today through Saturday
morning. Winds will be out of the west/northwest, becoming
northwest through the morning with sustained winds increasing to
20-35kts by late morning through the afternoon. Gusts could reach
up to 35 to 40kts. Winds will be diminishing west to east late
tonight through early Saturday morning.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MMM
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...Vipond
AVIATION...MMM