535
FXUS63 KABR 050521 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1121 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures (5 to 25 degrees) tonight through early
next week. The warmest air will be overhead Thursday and then again
Monday, with highs in the 40s (northeast/north central SD/western
MN) to near 60 (central SD).

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 508 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

The forecast remains on track this evening. No major changes are
planned.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Mid afternoon conditions across the forecast area continue to
feature a solid low stratus deck blanketing most of the area as
temperatures have remained steady in the 20s east to the mid to
upper 30s west. The western edge of the stratus has been slowly
shifting east into central SD since midday. However, a thicker veil
of high cirrus is moving overhead preventing any substantial
clearing. The western edge of the low stratus will continue to shift
east a bit more through the remainder of the day and could encroach
on the James Valley closer to sunset.

Sfc ridging will slip off to our southeast late this afternoon into
this evening. We`ll pick up a southwest wind in the low levels which
should help to push out some of the low stratus. However, some model
guidance has taken a bit of a pessimistic approach to cloud cover
retaining mostly cloudy skies across our east tonight and filling
back in across the west. The thicker cirrus will replace any loss of
the low stratus deck. This will maintain mild overnight lows in the
20s to low 30s, resembling close to what our normal daytime highs
are this time of year. There will be a period of time late this
evening into early Thursday where the eastern slopes of the Prairie
Coteau see gusty winds of 35-40 mph.

Sfc low pressure will track across parts of Saskatchewan/Manitoba
and into western Ontario tonight. An associated warm front is
progged to push through our forecast area tonight setting up a warm
air advection pattern that will persist through the end of the day
Thursday. Maintained a dry forecast tonight, even though there was
some guidance earlier today that suggested portions of our eastern
zones could see some very light precip. Soundings do saturate
aloft(DGZ) with a notable area of dry air below that. There will be
some leftover low level saturation and it`s possible somebody may
see a pocket of light freezing drizzle late this evening into early
Thursday, but the low level moisture remains rather shallow.
Something to monitor though through this evening. During the day
Thursday, 925mb climb to between +5C to +10C across the eastern CWA
while central SD sees readings of +10C to +15C on Thursday. This
will lead to highs in the low to mid 50s across central SD with a
few readings around 60 in south central SD. The combination of this
mild air and dry conditions will elevate the fire danger to the high
category across Jones County during the afternoon. Not quite that
warm farther east but readings should still top out in the upper 30s
to upper 40s. One of the caveats to the temperature forecast will be
cloud cover. Some guidance suggest cloud cover will persist across
our eastern zones which would keep a lid on warming. BUFKIT profiles
also show a persistent low level inversion across northeast SD and
west central MN which would prevent any notable mixing.

A backdoor cold front and sfc ridging build south and southwest
across our eastern zones on Friday. This will put a temporary hold
on the mild trend. Readings may actually remain steady or slowly
fall from the 20s to near 30 early in the day to the mid to upper
teens by late in the day. By the weekend into early next week, we`ll
see upper ridging begin to build back into the Northern Plains and a
warmer air mass returning. Mostly dry and mild conditions will
continue through this time. However, in this persistent
northwesterly flow aloft pattern, it wouldn`t be unheard of to see
more subtle upper waves move through and potentially deliver some
light precip to the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1121 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all taf sites through
Thursday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...20
DISCUSSION...Vipond
AVIATION...20