461
FXUS63 KABR 031842
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
142 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds out of the northwest will gust 30 to 40 mph Monday
afternoon, with locally higher gusts possible.

- High temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will be around 10 to 20
degrees below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

A strong area of low pressure will cross the Canadian prairies and
into the Great Lakes region later tonight through Monday morning.
Increasing westerly-southwesterly winds develop ahead the cold front
with half km winds reaching 35 to 50 knots between 3-12Z Monday. A
downslope wind event may be possible along the lee side of the
Prairie Coteau with gusts exceeding 45 mph. The cold front pushes
through the CWA, starting around 12Z, with 925 mb temps falling to
the single digits above by 18Z. There is a 20 percent chance for
light showers along the frontal boundary. However, the amount of
available LLM is limited with precipitation potential placement
around a fourth of an inch at most. Some CAMS are showing
additional instability showers post frontal Monday afternoon. An
inverted V sounding coupled with high bases, even with some
instability, am not expecting a great deal of QPF. Any
additional showers should dissipate during the evening hours.
Gusty northerly winds may be the main issue post frontal as the
NBM shows 30 to 50 percent chance gusts exceed 40 mph, mainly
along and west of the James River valley. As of now, winds may
fall short of advisory levels.

The rest of the forecast period appears to be mostly dry, with cold
temperatures midweek. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday warm into the
upper 40s, to the 50s, or 10 to 20 degrees below average for this
time of year. NBM suggests near record, within 5 degrees, low
temperatures Wednesday morning with lows in the mid 20s.
Temperatures will warm through the rest of the period with highs
returning to the 70s for Mother`s Day weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Prevailing VFR conditions can be expected for all terminals
through the valid TAF period. Westerly winds will increase later
this evening with low level wind shear possible at KATY. The
winds will shift to a northerly direction behind the passage of
a cold front Monday morning, with gusts exceeding 25 knots
toward the end of the TAF period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
DISCUSSION...SD
AVIATION...SD