061
FXUS63 KABR 262359 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
659 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread precipitation will push north and east this
  afternoon and evening as a storm system pulls out of the
  Rockies into the Northern Plains. This system will exit early
  Tuesday morning.

- Snow will mix in with the rain later today into tonight across
  parts of central SD. Minor accumulations (up to an inch) will
  be possible, especially on grassy surfaces.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Another day, another model solution for this system. Confidence in
timing is high. Confidence in precip type is moderate. Confidence in
snow amounts is low. The run to run consensus has settled, for the
most part, on a central SD changeover to snow after 20z, mainly
north of Pierre and west of the James Valley. It all hinges on
temperatures and dewpoints. Bumped temps down slightly this
afternoon and up slightly tonight due to cloud cover as non-diurnal
trends have already been noted. There`s no temperature advection to
really mention as the upper trough digs into SD except maybe a
wobble from 0C to -2C. Moisture will be plenty sufficient with a
strong H7 low and theta-e advection, and there could be localized
seeder-feeder and wet-bulbing effects that would enhance any snow.
So, the ranges remain large. 25th to 75th percentiles are still in
that 0-1 inch expectation, mainly on grassy surfaces with a 90th
percentile of 1 to 3 inches. However, outliers like the REFS range
as high as 7 inches.

Once this system exits early Tuesday, a weak front stretches
northeast into central and eastern SD on Wednesday. Coupled with
some shortwave energy, this feature will produce some light rain
before high pressure builds in Wednesday night. Dry conditions are
expected on Thursday under the high with increasing temperatures as
heights rise aloft. Another low will affect the area Friday night
into Saturday, bringing rain and gusty southerly winds for the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 645 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

IFR cigs and MVFR/IFR vsby will persist this evening into the
early overnight hours while it continues to rain (KABR/KATY) or
snow or rain/snow mix (KMBG/KPIR). KABR could see a little bit
of snow mix in as well closer to midnight. There could even be a
little bit of drizzle impacting TAF sites after the rain and
snow ends. The system exits early Tuesday, but low stratus is
expected to stick around in the system`s wake leaving conditions
IFR through the first half of Tuesday. Conditions for most TAF
sites should be improving to VFR/MVFR Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...10