119
FXUS63 KABR 071843
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1243 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry and mild over the next several days, with high
temperatures remaining above normal in the 50s and 60s through
Wednesday.

- Brief cool down Thursday/Friday back closer to normal values in
the 40s and 50s, but indications of mild and above normal temps
returning by next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1243 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Weak warm front/wind shift will continue to work its way eastward
across the CWA into the evening hours, shifting winds to the west-
northwest while it moves through. A cold front then drops southward
through the region late tonight into Sunday morning while a surface
ridge axis also begins building in. Winds go rather light/variable
closer to 12Z Sunday, and could see a drop in temps around that time
in favored cold spots like the James valley. Dropped lows a few
degrees from NBM in those areas. With the passage of the cold front
late tonight, slightly cooler high temps are forecast on Sunday, but
readings will still be above normal for this time of year.

Another push of mild air into the Northern Plains late Sunday
through Sunday night as 850mb temps rise to around +13 to +16C over
the CWA. Some of this warmer air lingers around on Monday but temps
aloft will be cooling as we have another cold front passage.
Inherited NBM highs feature upper 50s to low 60s across the region
on Monday.

Models showing a surface ridge axis once again moving overhead
Monday night and lowered Min T`s just a couple degrees in the James
valley.

The overall theme through the 7-day forecast period is mostly dry
conditions and above normal temperatures. That said, models do hint
at some colder air trying to move southward over the Northern Plains
later this upcoming week. Grand Ensemble showing 850mb temps
generally from 0C to +5C across the CWA by 18Z Thursday. Forecast
highs later in the week do come down more into the 40s and 50s by
then, but still near to above normal for this time of year.
Indications from models suggest this is only brief though as we warm
back up heading into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1122 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Chances for
FG/BR overnight into Sunday morning appear much less than this
morning, so no mention at this time. Although, low-level wind
shear (LLWS) is forecast at KMBG/KABR/KATY during the overnight
hours.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...TMT