277
FXUS63 KABR 240553 CCA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1253 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- More seasonal if not slightly below normal temperatures through
  the middle of next week (highs: upper 40s-mid 50s).

- System latter half of Sunday through most of Monday with
  widespread moisture (mainly rainfall). Highest potential across
  James valley and east, lowest in north central SD.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 06Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

GOES EAST MESOSCALE SECTOR helping to highlight blowing dust across
portions of Corson/Stanley/Dewey counties and a little bit east
river thanks to winds of 45 to 55 mph and a lack of moisture
delivered yesterday. Winds to stay up this afternoon with an 8mb/6
hour pressure bubble, however 1/2km winds across the advisory area
drop off after 00Z. That said, winds in the Red Flag area may move
into Wind Advisory criteria for a few hours after the Red Flag is
cancelled early or expired.

For tonight through mid day Friday, surface low continues to wrap up
over south central Canada, with west/northwest low level flow in an
area of induced ridging. CAMS are picking up on a weak wave coming
in from WY/MT through west river into the western CWA around
midnight. The result is some mid level moisture with temperatures
near freezing in the lowest 1-2kft meaning mainly rain but cant rule
out a little snow as well. 1/2km winds are also on the decrease
overnight, and during the day Friday under this weak ridge,
however there will be a tighter gradient and stronger winds up
along the northern tier of SD.

Late Friday/Friday night, a little stronger wave follows the first,
again into western South Dakota with precipitation taking a broad
loop from south west to eastern South Dakota.  A little better
forcing with this feature, which appears to have a little
banded feature on its northern extreme, with higher mid level
ascent, which would be across the southern CWA border from
central to east central South Dakota. CAMS and NBM have both
seen an increase POPs associated with this feature as well.

The upper low continues to sit and spit to our north Sunday, with a
weak wave that moves across the Desert Southwest and is pulled up
into our region, and becomes more organized into a stronger system
as it moves towards the Western Lakes region. This translates to the
surface as a deepening surface low that develops over eastern
Colorado and takes a sharp loop up through eastern NE/southeast SD
and into central MN. NBM precipitation type is predominantly rain,
with the western fringe of the CWA the lower 25th percentile
temperatures are cool enough for snow so the outcome is rain/snow
during the early morning hours.  As for moisture, the NBM 25th-75th
range is still quite high: 1/3 of an inch out by Mobridge to 1/2
inch elsewhere as the lower bounds, to around an inch/inch and a
half on the higher end.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will continue over the next 24 hours. There may
be a few sprinkles/very light rain showers around this morning
at KMBG and KPIR. But, rain chances look to really start ramping
up by early this (Friday) evening out in the KPIR area, before
spreading north and east overnight into Saturday at KABR and
KATY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...10