846
FXUS63 KABR 280624
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
124 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High temperatures today in the upper 80s to mid 90s (15-20 degrees
above normal). Slightly cooler air will filter in Friday into
weekend but still remain above normal.

-Scattered chances (15-30 percent) for rain showers mainly over
south central SD tonight into Friday morning. Chances for showers
and storms increase (20-40 percent) over central SD Friday afternoon
and through the evening.

- Increasing chances (40-80 percent) for showers and thunderstorms
through this weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 124 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Central and northeastern SD and west central MN will continue to see
temperatures that are 10 to 20 degrees warmer than normal (in the
upper 80s to mid 90s) as a ridge continues to sit over the state. A
surface high pressure in Canada will be working its way south
towards the Great Lakes through the day. As this high pressure
pushes its way south, a frontal boundary in front of it will be
pushed through northeast SD. This front could help afternoon and
evening showers and storms to develop, as there will be a little bit
of instability from the afternoon heating. However, there is not a
lot of moisture around or moving into the state, which will most
likely inhibit the development of storms and showers. There is a
slim chance that something could develop if there is a little bit of
moisture available. If a shower and storm does develop, the lack of
deep layer shear means that it will be short lived and sub-severe.

An upper-level low will be shifting east Friday. This shifting low
will help to push the ridge over SD to the east as well as the
surface trough in the Rockies towards the state. With the ridge
starting to move, more moisture will be able to move through the
atmosphere towards SD. Additionally, the changing atmosphere will
also disrupt the low level jet that is set up over western and
central SD. Models vary the timing of the next wave of rain and
storm chances mainly because of how fast the models change the low
level jet. Models that keep the jet around through Friday morning
bring rain and storm chances in over south central SD tonight into
Friday morning before more showers and storms come in Friday evening
over central SD. Other models that have the low level jet dissipate
quicker hold off on the shower and storm chances until the afternoon
and evening. This leads to lower confidence in precipitation chances
late Thursday night through Friday. Models come into more agreement
for more widespread rain and storm chances Saturday morning into
Sunday, with 60-80% chance over central SD Saturday afternoon into
the overnight hours and a 20-50% chance over northeast SD. One thing
that has more certainty is that temperatures will cool down Friday
and onward, with Friday in the mid to upper 80s and the weekend in
the low to mid 80s.

The upper-level low is forecast to sit over ID/MT/WY through the
weekend into the beginning of next week, with the surface trough
moving towards SD and settling over the area during that time.
Because of this, there continues to be chances for showers and
storms to develop Sunday and through the beginning of the work week
over central and northeastern SD. Models however vary the location,
timing, and intensity of the showers and storms, which causes lower
confidence. As we get closer to this time, the details will become
clearer, so we will continue to monitor the upcoming model runs to
see if they come to more agreement.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Southerly
wind gusts are forecast to range from around 25 to 30 knots
across KPIR/KMBG (and perhaps even KABR) by Thursday afternoon.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...TMT