935
FXUS63 KABR 310618
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
118 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered rain showers continue over the area this morning.
  Rain rates are generally expected to be light, but the
  strongest showers may put out around a tenth of an inch of
  rain, particularly over northeastern South Dakota.

- More widespread, heavier rainfall is expected Monday through
  Tuesday as a low pressure center moves into the Plains. While
  there is low confidence in amounts at this time, the chance
  to see two of rain ranges from 50 to 75 percent, increasing
  from west to east across the forecast area.

- Winds turn northwesterly and increase on the back side of the
  low pressure center Monday afternoon. Wind gusts upwards of
  45 miles per hour will be possible along and west of the
  Missouri River.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

As of 1 AM CDT, temperatures across the area are in the upper
40s to low 50s with winds out of the east to southeast at less
than 10 mph. Some light showers may pop up between now and mid
morning across much of the forecast area. Little accumulation is
expected around and west of the Missouri River with up to a
tenth expected east of the Missouri River. Some fog may also be
possible mainly across the western half of the forecast area,
but with the lack of precipitation, this could end up being low
stratus with not much of a reduction of visibility. Models are
showing another round of light showers or drizzle moving in from
the south this evening into Sunday morning, again, only light
accumulations are expected.

The main story for the forecast remains the early work week
precipitation. With an incoming low pressure system, we have
widespread chances of at least 70% for about 24 hours. PWATs are
still in the 1 to 1.25 inch range and still in that 99th or higher
NAEFS percentile. The NBM chances for accumulations higher than two
inches in 24 hours ending Tuesday morning is 50 to 75% around and
east of a line from Leola to Faulkton to Chamberlain. These totals
seem to be rather high and have increased dramatically in the last
24 hours. However, ensembles do show a 25th to 75th percentile range
of 1 to 3 inches. Would not be surprised if totals come back down
towards an inch in the next few days. Overall confidence in totals
is low at this time.

Temperatures through Sunday are still expected to be 10-15 degrees
above normal, with highs mainly in the 60s. Colder air moves in
behind the low and front Monday and will bring highs down to around
normal for this time of year. Monday also looks to be quite windy
with gusts of at least 35 to 40 mph for the majority of the forecast
area, some locally higher gusts of 45 to 50 may also be possible for
central SD. Keep an eye on this in the next few days. These stronger
gusts look to continue overnight and into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

MVFR/IFR cigs will persist through this evening. There may also
be occasional reductions in vsby in the morning, but confidence
is lower regarding fog potential and areal extent.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...20