383
FXUS63 KABR 251207 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
707 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is now just a 20-30% chance of 1/4" moisture across the
Missouri valley tonight into Friday morning. Negligible moisture
expected for the James valley and points east.

- The probability of exceeding wind advisory criteria (45 mph) is
between 20 and 50% west of the James valley Saturday.

- There is Marginal Risk (1 of 5) for severe weather Saturday.
Confidence is low on storm development due to very warm temperatures
above the surface. If storms do form, all hazards will be possible.

- Above normal temperatures for the weekend and next week.
Temperatures are forecast into the 90s and dewpoints well into the
60s. This will push heat index values into the mid 90s with
increased risk for heat related illnesses.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Another mild/pleasant day across the region today, with profiles
indicating some shallow cumulus with northwest flow becoming more
zonal. A system is poised to cross into the Western Dakotas by the
end of the day, and as it progresses east, weakens.  CAMS depict
rapidly dropping off returns as a cluster of showers/rain migrates
out of western into central South Dakota prior to midnight, then
lifting northeast with some re-invigoration. Forecast continues to
only top out around a tenth or two along the Missouri valley with
negligible amounts in eastern South Dakota, which is backed up
by the HREF.

We start seeing ridging follow for Friday, with mid level warm
advection and 700mb temperatures increasing from the temperate
low single digits to a gradient of +4C to +12C from northeast to
southwest respectively. This warm advection may be what CAMS
are latching onto with mid level ascent showing up as skinny
CAPE above 12kft suggesting an elevated convection potential.
Still, these profiles would suggest limited vertical growth and
sit atop a dry very warm layer. Its also not the typical
4-corner high with elevated well mixed moisture pivoting up and
out of the Desert Southwest which can come with some decent
moisture potential and be tough to resolve by baroclinic
models.


700mb temperatures continue to warm, with the GFS/NAM/Canadian now
running around +14C Saturday morning which until we start seeing
+70F dewpoints is going to be a pretty effective CAP. In our far
northwest CWA (Corson/Dewey), there is a bit of weakening of the CAP
in the vicinity of a southwest flow shortwave and an inverted
trough. Its a good shear environment for severe weather, with
the CAP being the main linchpin in convective potential.

The pattern thereafter is an upper trough over the Pacific
Northwest, a strong upper ridge/high over the southeast and
southwest flow aloft. A series of surges of hot air associated with
elevated mixed layers coming off the Colorado Plateau move overhead
for the rest of the weekend into next week. GEFS places 700mb
temperatures at 1 to 2 standard deviations through the Tuesday-
Wednesday timeframe. And while dewpoints are on the increase, NBM
deterministic values are only peaking in the 60s Saturday/Sunday.
There is a higher potential as the airmass across the Southern
Plains and Gulf currently feature dewpoints well into the 70s, and
the NBM does have some 20% probabilities of exceeding a 70 dewpoint
Saturday and 40% Sunday. HeatRisk Sunday and into next week
increases to Moderate/Major as Heat Index values across eastern
South Dakota increase well into the 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 537 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will continue through the period, with light rain
starting at PIR/MBG around 09Z Friday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...06