936
FXUS63 KABR 170007
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
707 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A light wintry mix of rain, freezing rain, or snow over central
  SD Tuesday morning will switch to mostly all snow over
  northeastern SD and west central MN mid morning through Tuesday
  afternoon. Expect light snow accumulations of around 1" or
  less, with a light glaze of ice possible over mainly central
  South Dakota.

- High temperatures Thursday and Friday will be mostly in the 60s
  and 70s, colder if snow remains on the ground.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 707 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

The ongoing forecast remains on track, with few changes expected
at this time. We`ll continue to monitor the thicker clouds moving
in from the w-nw, with precipitation still expected to hold off
until after 07Z Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 119 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

At 1 PM CDT, surface high pressure has rendered winds light and
variable. Skies are sunny/mostly sunny; March sunshine working on
melting snow even though temperatures are only in the single
digits/teens (a few low 20s west river) over the forecast area.

There`s a big upper level ridge over the west coast. Models prog it
to basically hold its shape/intensity during most of the 7-day
forecast. Models also prog it to shift eastward into the Rockies
over the next few days before some shortwave energy runs into it
during the upcoming weekend, attempting to lower its amplitude.

As the upper ridge propagates eastward, a much warmer airmass will
begin to invade the CWA, starting Tuesday when a warm front advects
across the region from west to east. Probably doesn`t make it passed
the James River valley on Tuesday, but Tuesday night into Wednesday,
it should complete the journey into Minnesota, with the entire CWA
in much above normal temperature territory, which is expected to
persist through Friday, perhaps even Saturday, before a cold front
works southward through the area, cooling things down some.

As Tuesday`s warm front approaches from the west, a shortwave will
round the top of the western CONUS upper level ridge and work
southeastward toward the Great Lakes region. This wave`s zone of mid-
level WAA/lift, is expected to tap into the surface/low level warm
frontal zone to produce a transient band of light precipitation,
starting off across north central South Dakota prior to sunrise
Tuesday, spreading east into Minnesota by mid-afternoon. Even
though, a non-diurnal warming trend is expected after midnight
tonight, the column should be cold enough that the eastern half to
two-thirds of the precipitation shield is snow p-type, with the
western half to one-third of the precipitation shield transitioning
to sleet/freezing rain as the low to mid-level (above freezing) warm
nose enter the column during this WAA sequence. Currently there is a
30 to 65% chance of the area receiving an inch of snow from this
band of precipitation, mainly east of the Missouri River valley.
There is also a 20 to 45% chance of the area receiving a couple
hundredths of an inch of ice accumulation from this band of
precipitation, mainly in/west of the Missouri River valley.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 707 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions continue, with nearly thicker clouds from the
west-northwest. A light wintry mix of rain, freezing rain, or
snow over MBG/PIR after 10Z Tuesday (mainly light snow at MBG) will
switch to mostly all snow over ABR/ATY mid morning at least 20Z.
The light precipitation will be accompanied by vis around  2-4SM
(lowest over northern SD for MBG/ABR) and MVFR ceilings.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...06