036
FXUS63 KABR 251714 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1214 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds out of the northwest will gust 25 to 35 mph this
  afternoon, with dry weather continuing through the day
  Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 18Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 828 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

A secondary cold front is heading south toward the CWA this
morning. Mixing layer wind gusts are expected to top out around
25 to 30 mph. Additional low level caa and dry air advection
can be expected behind this secondary cold front. High
temperatures today could be in jeopardy, if the strength/extent
of low level CAA progged actually happens. Up closer to the
North Dakota/Canada border, there is a higher concentration of
low level moisture forecast to advect down across the eastern
Dakotas/Minnesota later tonight/Wednesday. This could translate
into the redevelopment of low/stratus clouds over portions of
this CWA heading into Wednesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

As of 12:30 AM CDT, temperatures across the region are in the
upper 60s to low 70s with winds out of the northwest behind a cold
front and out of the southeast ahead of the cold front. Storms will
continue to move across eastern SD for the next several hours and
are expected to decrease in strength as they continue southeast.

Today through Thursday is expected to have quiet, dry weather as
high pressure moves into the region. Storm chances return Friday
through the weekend but confidence on severe weather is low at this
time. Temperatures through the period are still expected to be
around to slightly above average, warmest towards the weekend and
cooling down into next work week. HRRR smoke shows some smoke move
into the forecast area today with some higher concentrations over
northeast SD. There could be a little bit of smoke at the surface
lending a slight smoky smell to the air, but the higher
concentrations (still only a small amount) are expected Wednesday at
the surface. This isn`t expected to reduce visibilities much at all,
but could give the air a smoky smell again. Winds Tuesday are
expected to gust up to 35 mph mainly across northern SD, but could
reach as far south as Redfield or Highmore, SD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Currently, guidance says VFR conditions will prevail through
mid-day Wednesday. That being said, watching low clouds
(MVFR/VFR), that represent a pocket of higher moisture content
boundary layer air, work their way south toward this region as
they mix out with daytime heating. The set-up for late tonight
into Wednesday morning suggests there is the potential for some
fog or low stratus over parts of northeast South Dakota/west
central Minnesota. Waiting to see if short-term guidance will
pick up on this potential within the next couple of TAF-issuance
cycles.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...10