374
FXUS63 KABR 190618
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
118 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slightly warmer than normal temperatures stick around through
midweek with the potential for temperatures to be 15 to 20 degrees
above normal by the end of the work week.

- Dry conditions continue through Thursday with rain chances (20-
40%) potentially returning Thursday night into Saturday. Low
confidence in exact track and timing of the system along with
estimated rainfall amounts at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 118 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Behind the cold front that went through yesterday, a surface high
pressure will be moving through ND and northern MN today. This will
help to turn the winds to be from the east over central and
northeastern SD and warm the temperatures slightly. A small upper-
level ridge will be moving over SD tonight through Wednesday. This,
along with southerly flow at the surface, will help to warm
temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday to be about 10-15 degrees warmer
than normal for this time of the year, with highs in the mid 60s to
the low 70s. A weak surface low pressure and frontal boundary will
move over SD Tuesday night into Wednesday. This low pressure will
not do too much over central and northeastern SD, other than causing
the winds to turn. This is because of the lack of moisture in the
atmosphere keeping rain from develop.

Behind this surface low pressure, another low pressure is developing
to the west. As this second low pressure moves towards SD Thursday
through Saturday, it will cause the pressure gradient over SD to
tighten. This tight pressure gradient will cause the winds to
strengthen Thursday afternoon through Saturday, with the strongest
winds occurring Friday. There is a 40-70% chance for wind to gust up
to or over 45 mph over northeastern SD. These winds are something to
keep an eye on, because if the models continue to show these
stronger winds, a wind advisory might be needed. In the current
model runs, the models keep this low pressure to the northwest of
SD, though they vary the track slightly. They also have multiple
frontal boundaries that are tied to this low that move through
central and northeastern SD Thursday night into Saturday. Rain and
potentially some storms could form along these fronts as they move
through. However, the models vary quite a bit on which fronts have
rain, the timing, the track, how widespread, and the intensity.
Because of the variability, there is only a 20-40% chance for
precipitation Thursday night through Saturday. An eye will need to
be kept on the upcoming model runs to see if they come to more of an
agreement and if chances increase or decrease.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Good VFR conditions are forecast through Monday night.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...10