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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD
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458 FXUS63 KABR 051448 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 948 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - High temperatures today will warm into the 70s to mid 80s. These temperatures will steadily warm into the weekend before cooling back down early next week. - There are a few windows (low probability) of opportunity for nighttime showers and thunderstorms later this week, primarily Thursday evening and overnight and again late Friday night into Saturday morning. But, right now, the best chance for widespread rainfall (30- 50 percent chance) is lining up for Sunday evening through Monday morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 940 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 A beautiful morning thanks to a high pressure system overhead with clear skies and light winds out of the southwest. Current temperatures range in the 60s with dewpoints in the 50s. Geocolor satellite indicates smoke aloft, mainly over central SD with diminished air quality over portions of west/southwestern SD indicating near surface smoke. Near surface smoke will filter east today over central SD, but the lighter concentrations should keep visibility from decreasing. Otherwise, expect another dry and mild day with highs in the 70s and 80s. No major changes to the forecast as it remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 623 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 Aviation discussion updated below for the 12Z TAFs. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 119 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 As an upper-level trough moves out of SD today, northwest flow will set up over the state and then sticks around into the weekend. High surface pressure will be over the area today and will help to keep showers and storms from developing most of the day. However, a couple of models have hinted at some isolated shower development over central and northeastern SD during the late afternoon into the evening. There is low confidence in this occurring because of the dry air mass over the state, but if there was a bit of moisture, then something might be able to pop up. The northwest flow will help to push the high surface pressure out of SD this evening. Speaking of drier air, the minimum relative humidity this afternoon is expected to drop around and slightly below 20% in some areas in north central SD. Winds are expected to be fairly light in these areas, with occasional gust of 15 to 20 mph possible during the afternoon. These lighter winds help to keep fire weather concerns a bit lower, however the dry conditions could be a bit of a concern as it could make it easier for something to start. Temperatures today will be warming into the upper 70s to mid 80s over central and northeastern SD, with warmer temperatures expected in the coming days. Wildfire smoke will continue to be pushed in aloft over SD today and into Thursday, which could create some hazy skies in some areas. As the surface high pressure moves southeast, some of that smoke might make it to the surface over central SD. It doesn`t look like there will be large concentrations of smoke that could reduce visibilities, though individuals who are sensitive might experience some effects from the smoke. In the coming days, there does look to be occasional weak upper- level shortwaves that move over SD along the northwest flow. These shortwaves will help to support some surface boundaries moving over the state as well as the development of a low level jet. There could be some scattered showers and storms that develops over central and northeastern SD Thursday, however there is lower confidence in the development, with only a 20-30% chance. This is due to a few factors, such as if there might be some moisture might be moving in, when the surface boundary would move through central and northeastern SD, and when the low level jet develops. Models continue to vary the location, timing, and if any precipitation develops at all. The low level jet could also help something to develop Friday night as well. The next larger chance, 30-50%, for showers and storms to develop looks to be Sunday evening into Monday morning. The models show more moisture moving in aloft as well as a frontal boundary moving through central and northeastern SD to help storms develop. There is still variability in the models as to the location and timing of the showers and storms, which lowers confidence slightly. These chances for storm and shower development in the coming days will need to be watched to see if the models come to more agreement as they get closer. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 623 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are currently forecast through the TAF period. There may be a period of surface smoke (FU) in the KPIR region this afternoon with potential 6SM VSBY. Confidence in MVFR VSBY is low at this time. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...MMM DISCUSSION...12 AVIATION...TMT |
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NWS Aberdeen, SD (ABR) Office Forecast Discussions.
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