704
FXUS63 KABR 260042
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
742 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances will become more widespread today through early
  Tuesday. Probabilities of seeing one inch or more range from 20-50
  percent across north central SD to 50-90 percent from south
  central SD into northeast SD and west central MN.

- Rain and low clouds will bring visibility down to around 2
  miles or less Monday afternoon.

- Snow will mix in with the rain on Monday and Monday night
  across central SD. Minor accumulations, especially on grassy
  surfaces, will be possible. There is a 20 to 30 percent chance
  of seeing two inches or more from Eagle Butte to Gettysburg
  and south to Hayes.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 742 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Steady light rain continues, with rainfall totals so far ranging
from around 0.35" over south central SD, to 0.15" or less
across northeastern SD and west central MN. Expect the cloudy
conditions to continue into Tuesday. While the steady rain will
diminish near the ND/SD border, it will linger south of U.S.
Highway 12 through Monday morning before expanding north of the
highway once again. Lower visibilities are expected Monday
afternoon, to around 2 miles or less.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 106 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Rain continues to spread north and east early this afternoon. The
first wave is concentrated across east central SD while a second
wave is moving into central SD. Areas in between are filling in but
are battling a layer of very dry air near the sfc with 15 degree
dewpoint spreads under sfc high pressure. The 18z sounding at ABR
shows saturation from 700mb up. As the bubble of high pressure
erodes, the northern edge of the precipitation will continue to
battle drier air to the north as the sfc high digs into ND tonight.
Could see rain taper off Monday morning before it`s reinforced by a
stacked low moving out of Colorado and into the Plains.

As models rotate the upper low and 700mb low into central SD Monday
afternoon and evening, forcing and ascent are expected to increase
which will enhance precipitation. With the sfc low in central NE,
there has been a notable shift in precip, though, farther south and
east Monday. Snow potential now covers most of central SD with less
accumulation expected in Corson county. 90th percentile still shows
local amounts as high as 3 to 4 inches, but located from Eagle Butte
to Gettysburg with 25th to 75th percentiles ranging from nothing to
an inch for most areas. As mentioned in previous discussions, models
have a notoriously difficult time pinpointing H7 low tracks, so
confidence in location and amounts of snow continues to be low.

With the cloud cover, adjusted hourly temperatures higher overnight
than NBM. Blended toward hi-res which account for non-diurnal spread
a bit better. As the low moves northeast Monday night, could
see some intensification of precip along the Coteau in the pivot
point. A nose of warmer air will keep the precip all rain,
though. The system exits Tuesday morning.

Temperatures remain cool through mid week, but a building upper
ridge will push highs back into the 50s and 60s for the latter half
of the work week before another cold front moves through late
Friday. This front will also bring additional chances for
precipitation for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 742 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Mainly VFR conditions will continue at ABR and MBG until 18Z
Monday before dropping to MVFR. Expect MVFR ceilings at PIR to
erode to IFR after 09Z, with most locations. Visibility will be
around 1-2SM Monday afternoon with the lower MVFR/IFR clouds
and steady rain.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...06