699
FXUS63 KABR 131837
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
137 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Overnight lows could drop below the freezing mark through this
  week, mainly early Wednesday morning and early Friday morning.
  Areas that don`t get to freezing may still see frost
  development. Frost/Freeze headlines have been posted for late
  tonight into Wednesday morning mainly for central and north
  central South Dakota.

- Rain will be possible Wednesday night into Thursday, mainly
  over central and east central South Dakota. Along and south
  of U.S. Highway 14, there is a 50-70% chance to see a tenth of
  an inch or more of rain through Thursday.

- Northwest winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph will
  be possible Thursday afternoon and evening across central
  and north central South Dakota.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

At 1 PM CDT, skies were a mix of sun and clouds. Temperatures have
warmed into the 40s and 50s on 5 to 15 mph north-northwest winds.

Cloud cover is expected to dissipate/shift away from, at least, the
western half of the CWA overnight, allowing for light
wind/radiational cooling and temperatures falling to a point where
frost/freeze conditions can happen. Ensemble-powered probabilities
support the need for Frost/Freeze headlines (30-90 percent
chance of sub-freezing temperatures tonight over central and
north central South Dakota), so a Freeze Warning has been
issued for late tonight into Wednesday morning for north central
South Dakota (including Brown County in northeast South
Dakota). A Frost Advisory has been issued for central South
Dakota.

The upper level closed low over the western CONUS is forecast to
move through the central plains during the second half of the week.
It`s track could be close enough to bring some of the northern edge
of deformation-zone precipitation up into the far southern portion
of the CWA (generally south of a line from Mission Ridge to Milbank)
Wednesday night into Thursday. While that is forecast to happen,
energy crashing down the backside of the western CONUS upper level
ridge is forecast to sweep a strong cold front southeastward through
the CWA Thursday/Thursday night. It should be plenty windy behind
this fropa, with low level (0.5km) mixing winds progged at 35 to 40
knots in low level CAA. Previous events with 0.5km winds this strong
in a setup like this have yielded advisory criteria wind gusts,
along with a smattering of sustained 30mph wind for an hour or more.
Ensemble-powered probabilities support the potential for advisory
strength winds/gusts. A Wind Advisory may be needed for Thursday
afternoon/night.

The degree of coldness of the low level airmass advected into the
region behind this cold front supports temperatures falling to or
below freezing Thursday night (despite ongoing strong northwest
winds) and then possibly again Friday evening while transient
surface high pressure is centered over the border of the Dakotas and
Minnesota.

Friday through Tuesday looks dry with a warming trend forecast to
happen. The majority of the extended forecast is dominated mostly
by upper level ridging across the northern plains.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

At Noon CDT (17Z), cloud-cover could be described as sct/bkn
VFR/MVFR. Daytime heating/mixing is making a dent in the stratus
field over the region. Expecting all four terminals will be in
or closing in on VFR conditions by the end of daytime mixing.
Guidance currently showcases things becoming clear or mostly
clear for the overnight across central and north central South
Dakota, while keeping northeast South Dakota into west central
Minnesota in, at least, bkn MVFR cigs coverage.

That said, still some uncertainty regarding the overall areal
coverage/trends of CIGs tonight into the first half of
Wednesday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Freeze Warning from 3 AM CDT /2 AM MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/
     Wednesday for SDZ003>006-009-010-015-016.
     Frost Advisory from 3 AM CDT /2 AM MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/
     Wednesday for SDZ017-018-033>037-045-048-051.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...10