205
FXUS63 KABR 111110
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
510 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Downslope wind gusts in the Sisseton Hills could reach 35 miles
per hour or greater this afternoon, potentially making travel more
dangerous for high profile vehicles.

- 20% chance of mainly light rain Tuesday, then a 40-60% chance of
mainly light snow Thursday night and Friday. Winds out of the
northwest will gust over 40 mph with both events, but with the
Thursday through Friday event, the probability of wind gusts in
excess of 55 mph is 45-80 percent right now throughout and west of
the James River valley.

- Above normal temperatures today through Tuesday expected, with 30s
and 40s, and perhaps even some 50s for some locations across central
and south central South Dakota. Wednesday through Saturday, high
temperatures will be colder, in the 20s and 30s, with maybe some low
40s possible west river.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 509 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Aviation discussion below has been updated in accordance with the
12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 332 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

An upper-level trough over the western CONUS will continue to push
eastward today, allowing for a warmer air mass to occupy the region.
Over roughly the next 24 hours, a 15 degree increase in 850mb
temperatures to the positive single digits Celsius is expected. As a
result of this increase, the highs will be 15-20 degrees above
normal for mid-January across the forecast area, with a bit of a
gradient from northeast to southwest. This warm airmass is expected
to persist through the remainder of the short term period,
continuing the trend of dry conditions and above normal temperatures
through Monday.

The other forecast item of note will be the potential for some
strong downslope winds this afternoon on the eastern side of the
Prairie Coteau. A low pressure center passing to the north helps
veer winds just enough during the afternoon to the west-southwest
such that winds will be near perpendicular to the slope of the
terrain. Therefore, localized gusts up to around 35 miles per hour
will be possible this afternoon. These gusts are expected to
diminish overnight tonight with the loss of daytime heating as well
as winds veering further out of the west, thereby becoming less
perpendicular to the slope as well. Gusts may pick up again Monday
afternoon over central South Dakota, but are generally expected to
remain under 30 miles per hour.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 332 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

From Monday night through Saturday, the ensembles clusters analysis
and deterministic GSM`s all continue to point to a positive PNA flow
pattern aloft (northwest flow aloft over the CWA; sometimes more
north or more west, but overall call it northwest flow).

Still watching a couple of the stronger shortwaves progged by models
to move southeastward through the region, anchored on Tuesday and
Thursday night/Friday. The qpf clusters analysis does not show
anything greater than 0.10in for the Tuesday system, but does
suggest at least a tenth of an inch could be in/near the
northeastern forecast zones later in the week. Gridded ensemble qpf
guidance does focus ~0.10in of qpf on/along the western slopes of
the Prairie Coteau there in the Thursday afternoon through Friday
afternoon timeframe.

PoPs with the Tuesday event have diminished to generally 20 percent
or less, but fully suspect to see some WAA-forced light rain
glancing the eastern/northeastern zones early Tuesday morning, and
then flurries/scattered snow showers, post-cold-fropa Tuesday
afternoon/evening. Ensemble-based PoPs have increased, though, with
the late week system to likelys (40-60+ percent), with the highest
PoP values showing up, right now, Thursday night.

A WAA pattern, ongoing, Monday night into Tuesday should prove to
have temperatures markedly above normal (in the 30s to low 40s
potentially). Prior to 00Z Wednesday, a back-door cold front is
progged to push south/southwest into the CWA, signaling the
beginning of a CAA sequence that does not finish running its course
until ~18Z Wednesday. Not overly confident that the potential record
high low temperatures Tuesday morning will stand, given the amount
of cold air backing into the CWA late in the day Tuesday into the
first half of Tuesday night. Then, low level WAA takes a turn again,
and there is a period from Wednesday night through the end of the
day Thursday when warmer temperatures (from near the freezing mark
to the low 40s) will return to the region. The warm-cold push-pull
continues Thursday night through Friday night when the next slug of
arctic cold air bounds its way down across the northern plains out
of Canada.

Considering how active the low level thermal advection pattern is
expected to be, it`s not much of a surprise that there will probably
be a couple rounds of fairly strong winds happening. Still appears
as though the first potential burst of strong winds is lining up
over the CWA Tuesday late in the afternoon through late Tuesday
night when the strongest low level CAA/pressure rises are occurring
over the region. The probability of 45+mph wind gusts Tuesday night
is 40-80 percent (with some pockets of greater than 80 percent
showing up over the wind-favored areas of the CWA). Probabilities of
45+mph wind gusts are even higher for Thursday afternoon through
Friday night (60-95+ percent over much of the CWA), although not
seeing strong low level CAA happening until after 00Z Friday, so may
be tougher to get that "warm sector" strong wind off the surface to
translate all the way down to the ground. But, once the cold air
comes surging down into the CWA later Thursday night into Friday,
suspect the winds will once again acquire headline criteria
strength. It`s during this Thursday night into Friday timeframe that
there could be the greatest juxtapositioning of strong winds/gusts
and falling snow occurring simultaneously. Will continue to watch
this into the shorter range of the forecast in coming days for
trends.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 509 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the entire TAF period
today through tonight. The main aviation concern will be wind gusts
this afternoon, reaching upwards of 30 knots in north central South
Dakota and on the eastern side of the Sisseton Hills. Winds at the
surface are expected to taper off this evening, but winds aloft will
persist, creating some low-level wind shear over northeastern South
Dakota (at KABR and KATY specifically) for a couple of hours.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...BC