215
FXUS63 KABR 130750
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
250 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms continue, with highest chances (60-80%)
along and east of the Sisseton Hills. Additional accumulations of
0.5 to 1 inch is expected this morning.

- Elevated smoke remains over the region with an intermittent return
of near surface smoke and visibility reductions through this
evening.

- There is a marginal risk (1 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms
over most of the forecast area Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

As of 2 AM CDT, rainfall totals range from 1 to 4 inches. Showers
and sub-severe storms continue to move east and out of the area.
Temperatures across the forecast area are in the upper 50s with
winds out of the northeast to east at 10 to 15 mph.

We start Friday morning with an upper level ridge moving into the
region from the west that will strengthen going into Saturday with
high pressure centered to our south. Starting Saturday and lasting
into Wednesday morning, we have a series of shortwaves move through
the ridge all of varying strength. The shortwave on Saturday has the
potential to bring severe storms to the area, see the next paragraph
for more details. Tuesday afternoon and evening has another
shortwave of note. At this time, down at 850mb, a low moves across
NE, pulling gulf moisture north and adding it to the moisture
already in place. Ensembles generally agree that this low will move
north northeast and potentially clip eastern SD and west central MN.
Wednesday afternoon, we transition into a more zonal westerly flow
pattern aloft and generally stay there for the rest of the period.
Down at the surface, high pressure looks to move in for Thursday
with much drier air. Ensembles are starting to show a potential low
for the end of the work week.

Showers and some sub-severe storms are expected to linger into early
Friday morning as the lower-level low continues to move east and out
of the region. This will be replaced by high pressure and dry
conditions during the day. Saturday, SPC has highlighted the area in
a marginal risk (1 out of 5) for severe storms. During the day, the
main threat will be over western SD, but a LLJ sets up across
eastern SD during the overnight hours and some storms could pop up
off of that and become severe. As for severe parameters, all of
northern SD has at least 30kts of bulk shear but the highest CAPE
seems concentrated over southwestern and central SD, depending on
the model. Lapse rates over 7 C/km area also limited to western and
central SD until later Sunday morning. Storm chances continue
through at least Tuesday evening. Sunday and Monday both have
afternoon MLCAPE values between 1000 and 2500 J/kg, Sunday`s bulk
shear values are more marginal, more supportive on Monday and ML
lapse rates are forecast to be above 7 C/km and supportive of severe
hail. Tuesday, MLCAPE values are not has high and bulk shear is
rather marginal. General precipitation chances remain through the
end of the period, although they become 25% or less for Thursday and
Friday.

Due to most days during the period having a southerly component to
the wind, and almost continuous WAA, temperatures during the period
will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s. This is right around average.
There is quite a bit of spread (8-10 degrees) in the NBM at this
time, especially on Saturday with the Canadian ensemble trending on
the lower side. Winds are not expected to be anything out of the
ordinary during the forecast period. Today you may smell some smoke
as small amounts reach the surface. This should move out for the
most part by this evening. You may notice a slight milkiness to the
sky Saturday from a little bit of elevated smoke, but nothing is
expected to reach the surface.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

The frequent rain showers of Thursday will continue to slowly
diminish, with little to no additional ran expected at PIR/MBG.
However, there will be at least some nearby showers at ABR/ATY
through 12Z Friday. The significant low level moisture will help
keep some reduction in visibility of at least MVFR category at ATY
through the TAF period. MVFR to IFR ceilings are also anticipated
through much of the time. PIR has the highest chance of returning
to VFR conditions by around 00Z Saturday.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...13