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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD
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216 FXUS63 KABR 041833 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 133 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler than normal temperatures continue tonight into Wednesday, with lows tonight in the 40s to low 50s and highs Wednesday warming into the 70s to low 80s. Temperatures will steadily warm into the weekend before cooling back down early next week. - There are a few windows (low probability) of opportunity for night-time showers and thunderstorms later this week, primarily late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning and again late Friday night into Saturday morning. But, right now, the best chance for widespread rainfall (30-50 percent chance) is lining up for Sunday evening through Monday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 128 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026 At 1 PM CDT, skies are partly to mostly sunny. Some smoke aloft can be seen across the southern two-thirds of the CWA. The near surface smoke has all but moved out of the CWA to the south. Temperatures are warming through the 60s into the low 70s this hour (a good 10 to 20 degrees cooler than this time yesterday). Winds are from the northwest 5 to 15 mph with some occasionally higher gusts. With lower heights aloft over the CWA and a decent low level CAA/dry air advection sequence ongoing, today and Wednesday continue to look cooler than normal for (both high and low) temperatures. Went around 3-4 degrees cooler than NBM guidance for tonight`s low temperature forecast, based on how the NBM did with last night`s low temperature forecast (too warm). Ensemble clusters analysis and deterministic GSM output continue to support a mostly dry extended forecast with a semi-flat upper ridge west/upper trof central and east CONUS in place, such that the steering flow is expected to become west- northwesterly by Wednesday night through Tuesday of next week. Expecting more than one night of low level jet development under this set-up. Once return flow low level moisture regains a foot-hold over this region, will be applying scrutiny to each of these nocturnal low level jet scenarios to see if/when precip mention can be inserted into the forecast. There is still quite a bit of timing/location uncertainty surrounding it (further out in time), but guidance is tipping its hat to the potential for, at least, one round of rainfall between Sunday afternoon and Tuesday night. At the moment, there is some halfway decent agreement on precipitation chances Sunday evening through Monday morning. The low level airmass in place is more than 2 standard deviations below climo normal (850hpa) right now and is forecast to be more than 1 standard deviation below normal on Wednesday. A slow and steady warm-up into more than 1 standard deviation above climo normal (850hpa) temperatures is forecast into Thursday and Friday, peaking over the weekend, before things cool back down to closer to climo normal heading into next week. It still looks like the (northwest flow) pattern aloft will support Canada-sourced cold frontal passages every couple of days, helping to stave off another heat wave. However, models have been showing some variability in the placement/movement/strength of the western CONUS upper level ridge over the past few days. This, ultimately, reflects in the temperature forecast, as a stronger upper ridge further east over the CONUS would mean more heat over this CWA. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1206 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...10 AVIATION...10 |
Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Aberdeen, SD (ABR) Office Forecast Discussions.
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