666
FXUS63 KABR 231139 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
539 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Southerly winds gusting to 20 to 30 mph today shift to the
northwest Tuesday, with gusts of 30 to 40 mph. This leads to
elevated fire weather concerns over central SD Tuesday afternoon.

- A storm system will bring the potential for snow on Wednesday. Low
confidence on the location of the rain/snow line and snow amounts at
this time.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 531 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 12Z TAFS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 128 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

The main highlights through Wednesday will be elevated fire danger
concerns over central SD Tuesday and the potential for light snow
(and/or a narrow band of snow) setting up somewhere over the CWA
Wednesday. Low confidence on exact amounts as this time and location.

For today, northwest flow continues aloft over the region, being on
the downstream side of a broad ridge that will flatten as it
continues to shift east through this evening. High pressure at the
surface will be over western Ontario by 12Z with its ridge axis,
south of this low, shifting eastward and exiting the eastern CWA
through the day. With this, a steeper pressure gradient sets up over
the CWA between this exiting area of high pressure and a surface lee
trough/warm front to our west. With this, winds will continue to
shift out of the southeast this morning, becoming southerly by this
afternoon through the evening. This return flow will help bring in
warmer air from this ridge but really only for south central SD as
James Valley and east will still be under the cooler air mass from
the trough to our east. So the spread in highs across the CWA will
be about 30 degrees, ranging from the 20s James Valley eastward to
the 30s and 40s west of here, with the potential for 50 degrees over
far south central SD. RAP 1000-500mb RH does indicate drier air
spreading northeastward over central SD this afternoon with NBM
afternoon RH values between 30-40%. Luckily winds will not be too
big of an issue today, however, the GFDI is in the high category for
portions of south central SD today.

This evening through Tuesday morning, a low will track across
ND/Canadian border, with the center over northern MN by 12Z Tuesday.
During this time, its warm front will track west to east across the
CWA, followed by a weaker trough. Winds will then shift from
southerly to more southwesterly, which leads to a few hours of
potential downsloping winds along the eastern side of the Coteau
overnight before winds shift westerly early Tuesday morning behind
the trough. HREF indicates gusts potentially of 35 to 45 mph from
03Z-06Z or so with NBM max gust potential of ~40kts. So I blended
NBM/NBM90 between 03-12Z to show for this. Winds will overall
increase anyways across the CWA through the day due to winds aloft
increasing on the backside of the upper level portions of the low, a
steep pressure gradient, and CAA as the cold front will track
northwest to southeast over the CWA Tuesday morning through the
midday. 925mb CAA looks to be strongest between 12-18Z east of the
Mo River with NBM wind gusts ranging from 25-35kts by 18Z and
diminishing. Winds will most likely need to be increased as NBM max
gusts indicates 40-50mph. Went with the previous shift and did not
mess with the temperatures on Tuesday for now. HREF does show temps
falling with the passing of the fropa both at the surface and aloft
over north central to northeastern SD earlier than what NBM is
showing as NBM shows it more stalling out with temps not falling
until diurnal cooling. With the gusty winds, RH min values at or
below 40% over south central SD, along with dry fuels, The GFDI is
high to very high across central SD. Also HiRES models do suggest
locations along the ND/SD/MN border could be clipped by light snow
on the southern extent of this low Tuesday morning with NBM keeping
pops minimal at 15-25%. If the low ends up tracking more south, so
will this southern extent of the precip.

By Wednesday morning, high pressure will sink in from the north and
over the ~ND/MN border by 12Z continuing to track southeast through
the day. Northerly winds will switch back around out of the east and
southeast as a low sets up over WY/SD/NE border paired with a
stronger shortwave aloft. Through Thursday morning, this low will
track southeast across SD/NE border then NE. This brings the
potential of a narrow band(s) of snow along the northern gradient of
this low and between the high to our northeast. The main question is
where this higher qpf/snowfall will fall. For example, EC and EC AI
show a northwest to southeast oriented line or a couple of them from
north central to east central SD with QPF amounts (10:1) at or less
than 0.10" (EC AI is trending a bit further south in the bands). GFS
has a couple of narrow bands, one from ND through far northeastern
SD/western MN and one over south central SD with QPF amounts 0.10-
0.25". NAM by far is the most aggressive showing a line of QPF from
north central and tracking through the James Valley with QPF of 0.4
to 0.5", bullseyed over the JRV. Lastly RDPS have a very narrow of
QPF from Corson southeastward through Sioux Falls of 0.10-0.20" So
as you can see, models are all over the place. Snowfall amounts
(10:1) all range between 1-2 with the exception of the Nam which is
showing a potential of 4-6" within the narrow band. Looking at
ensemble data, ENS has half inch or less across the entire CWA with
GEFS of 1-2 James Valley and eastward. However, both NBM/WPC have
really cut back QPF totals and very much more broadbrushed with the
latest run. Probability of 0.10" or more is 30-40% in a southeast
oriented line from north central SD through Watertown with prob of
snow>2" at 25% or less. 90th percentile would be 2-3" east of the Mo
River. We will get a better idea once more of the mesoscale models
come in or if we get any enhanced localized lift aloft to increase
totals. Right now south centrals SD looks to fall as light snow
first, transiting to rain, however, it will be very temp dependent
at that time. Winds luckily will not be too much of an issue, with
gusts of 15-25kts, highest over central SD. So blizzard conditons
are not anticipated for now.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 531 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all terminals through
this TAF cycle. Increasing southeast winds during the mid to late
morning hours today will gust up to 25 knots through the afternoon
before diminishing late this afternoon and early evening. Late
tonight into early Tuesday morning, winds become west to
southwest and increase up to 20-25 knots. Much stronger winds just
off the surface by that time frame will promote a period of low
level wind shear at all TAF sites.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Vipond
DISCUSSION...MMM
AVIATION...Vipond