936
FXUS63 KABR 261627
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1027 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds out of the southwest will gust to around 50 mph, with
  localized higher amounts, along and just east of the Prairie
  Coteau through mid afternoon. A wind advisory is in effect.
  Drifting snow and blow ice may cause slippery roads especially
  along I-29.

- Temperatures briefly return to near normal values today, with
  highs in the upper teens and 20s. 30s are expected across
  Stanley, Jones, and Lyman Counties.

- Temperatures will return to below normal values Monday night
  through Friday, with highs 10 to 20 degrees below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 248 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Bitterly cold wind chills in the -25 to -40 degree range continue
early this morning. As the upper trough slides southeast, southwest
winds increase at the sfc and heights rise aloft. This will usher in
some warmer temperatures this morning from the west. More seasonable
highs in the upper teens to mid 30s are expected today as a result,
though they will be short-lived. As winds increase with gusts
generally in the 25 to 35 mph range, downslope winds will develop
along the Coteau with gusts to 50 mph. With the very limited snow
depth, drifting snow is more of a concern than blowing snow. Roads
may be slippery from blow ice. Issued a wind advisory starting as
the Cold Weather Advisory expires this morning for areas along the
Coteau ridgeline.

Another upper trough slides into eastern ND/MN tonight. A 1030s high
then builds in at the sfc on Tuesday. Both of these features will
reintroduce below normal temps. Highs on Tuesday will range from the
single digits east of the James Valley to the lower 20s in south
central SD. Added in a little NBM 10th percentile again for
temperatures through the short term.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 248 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

The long term starts Tuesday night with an upper low off to our
north over eastern ND and northern MN. This low will move east and
out of the region during the day Wednesday. Another low moves into
the Great Lakes region late Thursday with the trough reaching back
into the eastern Dakotas. Sunday, a shortwave moves south out of
Canada. Down at the surface, Wednesday we will be under high
pressure until a surface low moves through western SD on Thursday,
bringing a chance for some light snow. We are once again under high
pressure Friday before that shortwave moves through bringing a
chance for some light snow again on Saturday.

Starting with the Thursday light snow chances, PoPs top out around
30%, mainly over central SD. The probability of more than an inch of
snow is around or less than 20% with the highest chances over
central SD. Some snow could continue into Friday morning. For the
Saturday snow, chances of more than an inch are again around or less
than 20% with highest chances mainly over the James River area. PoPs
for this also top out around 30%.

Temperatures during the period will start out below average by 10-15
degrees, and then see a nice jump to 5-10 degrees above average for
the weekend. Winds still aren`t expected to be anything special
during the period. Friday morning looks to be a little on the chilly
side with widespread wind chills in the -20 to -25 degree range.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1027 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will continue over the next 24 hours. The main
concern will be winds, that will gust 25-30kts for much of the
period. These winds will only slowly diminish late this evening
through Tuesday morning There are a few forecast models that are
showing the potential, around a 25% chance of MVFR or lower
ceilings at ATY from 06-15Z Tuesday. This potential will continue
to be monitored.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for SDZ007-008-020-
     021-023.

MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...06