396
FXUS63 KABR 212335 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
635 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thursday and Friday, highs will reach the upper 70s to low 80s.
These temperatures are 20-25 degrees above normal, and will approach
record highs.

- Rain chances return Friday with a 20-40% chance of light showers
over northeastern SD and western MN. Additional chances for showers
come Saturday along a cold front, where there is a 10-40% chance to
see a tenth of an inch of rain over northeastern SD and western MN.

- Southerly winds increase Friday, with widespread 30-40 mile per
hour gusts expected during the afternoon. There is a roughly 10-30%
chance for gusts to reach 45 miles per hour or more over eastern
South Dakota and western Minnesota.

- Warm conditions and strong winds will lead to elevated fire
weather concerns across central South Dakota Thursday, with more
widespread concerns Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 628 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

High pressure center to the north is in control today, keeping
northeasterly winds gentle this afternoon. As the high pressure
slides eastward, winds will shift overnight tonight to become
southeasterly. Mostly clear skies are also in place today and into
tonight, with just some scattered mid to high clouds expected.
Strong humidity recovery coupled with the light winds overnight
create the potential for some fog development early Thursday
morning. Thus far hi-res model guidance is split on the fog
potential, with mainly the REFS showing some visibility reductions
over central South Dakota. However, can`t rule out fog over both the
James River Valley and far northeastern South Dakota/western
Minnesota either due to lighter winds compared to the rest of the
forecast area and a favorable direction for upslope flow helping
with the development.

On Thursday, the high pressure center in control of the region will
progress eastward, causing a tightening of the pressure gradient
behind it. Southerly wind gusts will therefore increase Thursday
afternoon, reaching up to 25-35 miles per hour by the afternoon. The
strongest gusts are expected mainly along and west of the Missouri
River, and may persist into the overnight hours. An upper-level
ridge overhead will support the continuation of above normal
temperatures. Highs reaching into the upper 70s to low 80s may
approach daily record highs.

A southerly low-level jet will move over eastern South Dakota and
western Minnesota Friday, bringing about a further increase in winds
over much of the forecast area. There is a fair degree of agreement
on the jet topping out around 850mb at 40-50 miles per hour. This
will result in near-Wind Advisory gusts (45 miles per hour or
higher) near the surface in the afternoon. High-resolution ensembles
within range of the event give a roughly 10-30% chance (with
localized areas up to 40-50%) to see gusts of 45+ miles per hour
Friday afternoon, so the event remains somewhat marginal at this
point. The jet will advect warm, moist air into the region, pushing
850mb temperatures up to 20 degrees Celsius and PWATs to 1.25"+,
both well above the 90th percentile for this time of year. Naturally
this will create another day of near-record temperatures at the
surface (highs in the upper 70s to low 80s) and widespread dew
points in the 50s. The low-level jet will also be responsible for
supporting some light rain shower development over northeastern
South Dakota and western Minnesota Friday morning and afternoon. As
the jet continues overnight Saturday, there is potential for some
localized downslope winds over the eastern side of the Prairie
Coteau reaching upwards of Advisory criteria.

With strong winds both Thursday and Friday coupled with the abnormal
heat, elevated fire weather conditions will be in place during those
afternoons. Thursday, Grassland Fire Danger will reach the High
category over central and parts of north central South Dakota.
Coverage of High Grassland Fire Danger will expand to cover the
entire forecast area Friday afternoon, with some pockets of Very
High Grassland Fire Danger possible. The high dew points (up into
the 50s) will keep minimum afternoon humidity to the 40-55 percent
range both days.

On Saturday, a cold front is set to move across the forecast area.
Along the boundary, additional rain showers are expected. Behind the
cold front, there is high confidence in a significant temperature
drop into the start of next week. While there`s naturally still a
bit of uncertainty, highs are set to be in the upper 40s to low 50s,
about 5-10 degrees below normal for this time of year. An upper-
level low will track northeast into the region next week,
potentially bringing additional precipitation chances during the
early week. An early look at soundings does show some potential for
saturation in the DGZ and a sub-freezing profile down to the near-
surface layer during the overnight hours, so some of the area may
potentially see the first flakes of the season.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 628 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Light
surface winds this evening will switch to the south-southeast on
Thursday and gust between 20 and 25 kts for most areas by late
morning through the afternoon, strongest over KPIR/KMBG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...TMT