363
FXUS63 KABR 270346 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
946 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Strong winds could continue to gust up to 40mph and locally higher
along the eastern side of the Prairie Coteau and over the Leola
hills into the evening before starting to decrease overnight.
These winds could continue to cause some drifting snow.

- Temperatures will return to below normal values tonight through
Friday, with highs 10 to 20 degrees below normal.

- Tuesday morning will have wind chills of -15 to -25 degrees over
north central and northeastern SD, which will be the coldest wind
chills for the next few days.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 943 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Made some minor adjustments this evening for the update. More or
less to bring winds and cloud cover in line with observations.
Tracking a little bit of low cloudiness drifting into our
northeast zones out of southeast ND/northwest MN. Did increase sky
cover in those areas through the late evening and early overnight.

UPDATE Issued at 546 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 00Z TAFS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

A warm front has moved through central and northeastern SD
afternoon, causing warmer temperatures and some stronger winds. A
wind advisory was in effect through the afternoon due to downsloping
winds along the eastern side of the Prairie Coteau gusting up around
45 mph with some locally higher gusts. This advisory was ended at
3PM CST as winds have started to weaken below 40mph and will
continue to decrease as a cold front move through the area this
evening. There is still a 30-40% chance for gusts to be greater than
30mph through the night into early Tuesday morning along the eastern
slopes of the Prairie Coteau. Some drifting snow will still be
possible through the evening and overnight, though visibilities
don`t look to be affected. A few snow flakes might fall this
afternoon into the evening over far northeastern SD and west central
MN behind the cold front. These snow flurries don`t look to cause
any snow to accumulate.

Temperatures have warmed up over central and northeastern SD this
afternoon, to be in the teens to 20s over north central and
northeastern SD and in the 30s over south central SD. The warmth
will not last long as the cold front sweeps through the area this
afternoon and evening and another high pressure moves over the area.
This will cause the temperatures and wind chills to drop again.
Temperatures over the next few days will be 10 to 20 degrees colder
than normal. Wind chills during this time are forecast to stay
warmer than Cold Weather Advisory Criteria, but will still be in the
negative single digits to negative teens. The wind chills will be
the coldest Tuesday morning, and will be in the negative teens to
negative 25, coldest over north central and northeastern SD.

The high pressure will continue to stay over central and eastern SD
through Friday and will help to keep precipitation out of the area.
However, Wednesday night into Thursday, a shortwave low pressure
looks to move along the western edge of the high pressure over
western SD. This will cause a 20-30% chance for snowfall in between
the low and high pressure in western and central SD. Models do vary
the location of this snowfall depending on the strength of the high
pressure and location of the low pressures, which keeps the chances
for snowfall lower. Model ensembles have a 15-30% chance for greater
than a quarter inch of snow to accumulate over central SD from this,
though most of the snowfall is forecast to occur in western SD.

The high pressure is forecast to move out of central and
northeastern SD Saturday as a surface low to the east pushes a warm
front through the area. This front will bring precipitation chances
to central and northeastern SD Saturday. Because of WAA aloft and
temperatures warming at the surface, precipitation types on Saturday
will need to be watched in upcoming model runs. Some of the ECMWF
members are showing chances for freezing rain and drizzle and others
show rain mixed in with the snow over central SD. Behind the warm
front, temperatures look to warm 5 to 10 degrees above normal during
the weekend, which will be a welcome break from the negative
temperatures and wind chills.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 546 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

All terminals will continue to experience VFR conditions through
this forecast period. Northwest winds will remain gusty through
the evening and into the overnight before relaxing early Tuesday
morning. Will continue to monitor the potential for MVFR cigs
developing after midnight across northeast SD and determine if
there will be any impacts or not to the KATY terminal.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Vipond
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...Vipond