633
FXUS63 KABR 111427 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
927 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers (30-50%) will track across the region this
morning and continue through this evening. A few weak thunderstorms
are possible this afternoon and evening with no severe weather
anticipated.

- Strong northwesterly winds return today, with gusts of 35 to
potentially 45 mph, with the highest gusts over central South
Dakota.

- Other then a brief warmup on Friday with highs in the 80s, cooler
temperatures are expected today and again this weekend ranging in
lower to mid 70s. This is about 5-10 degrees below average for this
time of year.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 922 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Forecast remains on track this morning, and no changes have been
made at this time. Currently monitoring rain showers over
central South Dakota that will continue to track east for the
next few hours. Another round of showers is expected to move
into north central South Dakota later this morning and continue
to impact the area this afternoon. No lightning has been
observed in these showers over the past hour, but can`t entirely
rule out an isolated flash of lightning or two. Also took a
quick look a the latest high-resolution guidance for today`s
wind threat west of the Missouri River. The latest trends
continue to support that area not needing a Wind Advisory this
afternoon, but some isolated gusts of 45+ mph may still be
possible.

UPDATE Issued at 633 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 12Z TAFS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

As of 2am, radar indicates light rain is falling over portions of
south central SD, tracking northeast out of Nebraska, as KPIR has
reported a trace within the past hour. Current temps range in the
mid 50s to the mid 60s, warmest along the eastern slopes of Coteau
into western MN. By 12Z, a large upper level closed low will to be
just to our north/northeast, extending along the ND/MN border into
Canada. Its shortwave`s axis (phasing with another shortwave from
the PacNW) will extend through the central Dakotas into western NE.
Through the day the low and wave will track eastward with the CWA in
northwest flow by this evening. At the surface, its cold front will
extend southwestward from Canada and over northern ND/MT while
another surface low will be over central KS with the CWA sandwiched
between these two systems. CAMs overall indicate this scattered WAA
rain will continue to track northeast across the CWA through the
late afternoon from this wave/southern system as it also tracks
northeast. Then additional more scattered/spotty precip moves in
from the northwest (associated with cold front/UL energy) by the
midday over north central SD and will track eastward mainly along
the northern half of the CWA through the evening. Daytime heating
and weak instability will lead to the threat of a few thunderstorms
this afternoon through the evening as CAPE will be under 1000 j/kg,
no shear, and weak mid lapse rates. This will lead to your run of
mill pulse type thunderstorms as no severe weather is anticipated.
At most maybe small hail and wind gusts to 50mph if it grows
vertically enough.

The tightened pressure gradient along with west/northwest flow will
lead to steeper low level lapse rates to about 750/800mb over
central SD by the afternoon (RAP) with the top of the mixed layer
winds between 25-35kts, so not overly strong aloft, and if we can
even mix this high. NBM probability of gusts>45 mph is about 45%
over Corson/Dewey and 60-75% over southern Jones/Lyman Counties.
However HREF/REFS are 10% or less. So went ahead and lowered the
winds/gusts a bit over central SD, therefore, no Wind Headline was
issued. However, this will need to be watch if winds do end up
mixing better and in fact get advisory gusts for these locations.
Winds will diminish overnight but still could see gusts east of the
Mo River 20-25kts.

Friday a secondary low forms on the cold front over MT with this
entire fropa tracking southeast over the CWA thorough Friday night.
Only real chance of precip will be near the low over eastern
SD/western MN Friday evening that could bring a few rain/storms,
mainly east of the Sisseton Hills. Again weak instability with no
severe weather expected. Winds will be breezy, closer to the low,
mainly along the ND/SD border and Coteau with gusts to 30kts. High
pressure will keep the weather dry and quiet for the weekend. With
+PNA setup and this Canadian low parking over Ontario/Quebec,
limited chances of moisture are forecast early to middle part of
next week. Clusters do show the ridge breaking down and low finally
dissolving end of next week, however, exact setup and timing differ
between the models given several days out so low confidence this far
out.

It will be quite cool today with highs only in the lower to mid 70s
and lows upper 40s to upper 50s. Brief warmup Friday into the 80s to
near 90 over south central SD before a cooldown with highs mainly in
the 70s this weekend through early next week (thanks to this large
low in Canada). This about 5-10 degrees below average.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 633 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

An upper level disturbance will continue to track across the
Dakotas today. This will provide the area with cloud cover and
occasional rain showers and thunderstorms. All terminals will
continue to experience VFR conditions through this forecast
cycle, although a period of high end VFR cigs may be possible at
KMBG. Regarding precipitation chances, TEMPO or PROB30 groups
have been included at all TAF sites to highlight the potential
for morning showers and afternoon thunderstorms with a bit of a
break in between the two. West to northwest winds will increase
through the day with gusts of 25-30 kts expected at all terminals.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BC
DISCUSSION...MMM
AVIATION...Vipond