448
FXUS63 KABR 120719
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
219 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A clipper system brings strong winds to the area this afternoon
and evening. Wind gusts will mainly be up in the 50 to 60 mph range
with stronger gusts right when the front comes through. Some of our
more wind prone areas could top 75 mph. A High Wind Warning has been
issued for all of central/north central and northeast SD as well as
western MN.

- Mild temperatures and dry conditions in combination with the very
strong winds will raise the Grassland Fire Danger into the Very High
to Extreme category for this afternoon. A Red Flag Warning is in
effect.

- A Colorado Low will bring snow for the weekend. The probability of
exceeding 6 inches of snowfall has increased to 30 to 60% across the
forecast area. Winds of 30 to 40 mph will lead to blowing/drifting
snow.

- Very cold air follows with temperatures Sunday into Monday some 15
to 25 degrees below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

All deterministic models have aligned closer to the GFS which has had
the most continuity in regards to the clipper system that tracks
from the northwest to the southeast corner of North Dakota. GFS
1/2km winds increase to around 20 to 30kts at 15Z to a pocket of
40kts+ across central South Dakota by 18Z and 45kts+ into the
eastern CWA by 21Z with ultimately a core of 50 to 60kts crossing
the CWA between 00Z and 06Z. The winds aloft drop rapidly thereafter
by 12Z. GFS also has pressure rises of 14mb/6 hours, and a bullseye
of 20mb/6 hours in North Dakota which is significant.

We will be warm advecting through at least 18Z however, which will
temper mixing those stronger winds out west. The core of the warmest
air is then shunted southwards with the cold front, but again the
dual nature of the cold front shows up, and cold advection isn`t
that strong initially (through the 00Z timeframe) after which a
second surge of Arctic type air comes in which will help enhance the
winds. That said, the GFS (which is more mixy) BUFKIT profiles do
show the mixed down tool jumping into the 60-70kt range, which is
backed up by the RRFS and the ARW. With unidirectional flow aloft
out of the northwest on the backside of the system, that will aid in
enhancing winds at times, so some 75 mph gusts not out of the
question.

CAMS are also generating these strong enhancements. The HRRR output
is well past 70mph in locations backing up the above statement. The
HREF likewise has some areas in north central counties with a
greater than 50 percent probability of exceeding 70 mph.

Now... On to the Weekend Storm System!

Fairly good agreement exists between deterministic guidance in the
progression of a Colorado low that moves mostly through Kansas and
off towards Chicago. This a much less amplified system in comparison
the Colorado lows that would typically give us a much longer
residence time within the TROWAL, but thats not to say it won`t be
impactful as we`re already seeing NBM totals in excess of 6 inches
of snow. In fact, the 13Z and 19Z runs of the NBM have seen a
significant increase over last nights forecast. Probabilities to
exceed 6 inches is now up around 50 to 80 percent across portions of
the CWA. During the day Saturday, probabilities for rain are a bit
higher but overall a progression to all snow is expected. GFS BUFKIT
profiles depict a fairly deep (approx 6kft) dendritic growth zone that
makes a slow progression from around 500-600mb down to around 700-
800mb as profiles cool, and while ascent is never consistently within
that zone, the long residence time means ample time for snowfall.
NBM 25th-75th range in snowfall outcomes still shows quite a bit of
spread, on the order of 6 inches between higher and lower potential
for snowfall. Winds will also be quite strong, with GFS BUFKIT mixed
tool indicating about 40kts of wind out of the northeast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions for all terminals. Scattered showers with VFR CIGS
possible for all terminals. Strong northwest winds to follow a
cold front for the latter half of the TAF period.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Friday for
     SDZ007-008-011-019>023.

     Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 9 PM CDT /8
     PM MDT/ this evening for SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-
     045-048-051.

     High Wind Warning from 3 PM CDT /2 PM MDT/ this afternoon to 1
     AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Friday for SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-
     033>037-045-048-051.

     High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM CDT Friday for
     SDZ006-018.

MN...High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Friday for
     MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...07