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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 131601 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1101 AM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021

Issued at 1055 AM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021

Overall the forecast is doing fine. Did make some changes to
temperatures, dropped them just a bit based of latest guidance.
Winds have been pegging advisory criteria in a few spots over
mainly the south central part of the state, but with nearly
neutral to slight WAA, will forego a headline for now, but keep
an eye on the situation. Low level lapse rates will be quite steep
this afternoon, lending to continued gustiness.

UPDATE Issued at 648 AM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021

12z aviation discussion updated below.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 408 AM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021

Weather conditions across this forecast area today will continue to
be influenced by a nearly vertically stacked low pressure system
through the low to mid-levels located off to our northeast. Counter-
clockwise flow around this fairly sizable system will deliver gusty
northwest winds, chilly temperatures and pcpn chances through today
and into tonight.

Early this morning, a sfc trough extends from the low in northeast
MN southwestward across northwest MN & southeast ND and into
northern sections of SD, mainly across our northern forecast zones.
Occasional light snow showers have been observed through the early
morning from Mobridge to Aberdeen to Ortonville and points north. A
perusal of webcams in these areas shows some snowfall but little in
the way of noticeable accumulation outside of perhaps on some grassy
areas. Think this trend should hold for the most part through the
day today. We will continue to see chances for light snow showers,
perhaps mixed with rain showers at times from north-central SD
eastward into northeast SD and west-central MN. Some light
accumulation will be possible across the higher terrain of northeast
SD. Otherwise, not anticipating any noteworthy impacts from this
bout of wintry weather. Temps will struggle underneath cloudy skies
as northerly fetches continue to pull in cold air from the north.
Winds will be a factor again today, but not quite as strong as we
saw on Monday. Opted to remain headline free for now in the wind
category as it looks marginal for most areas. Our western zones
would stand the best opportunity to see the strongest gusts this

Slowly improving conditions are then expected to take place from
west to east through the remainder of the period as the
aforementioned low pressure system slowly wobbles eastward and
weakens its grip on our area. Will continue to see some smaller
chances for precip hang on in our east into this evening before
coming to an end. Clouds should be tough to scour out however.
Overnight lows tonight maybe held up from bottoming out thanks to
the cloud cover. We should begin to see a slow moderation in daytime
temperatures on Wednesday with highs getting back into the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 408 AM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021

The models continue to show a large upper level closed low pressure
area over the western U.S. to begin the long term on Wednesday night
along with a short wave trough in Canada heading south towards our
region. The western U.S. upper low pressure area will then make its
way slowly east into Thursday night and open up and weaken. Some
energy from this trough may still sneak some light rain/light snow
into our western cwa Thursday afternoon into Friday morning with
only light amounts of qpf shown. Otherwise, the Canadian upper low
pressure area/trough will make its way straight south across our
region Friday through Saturday. This system looks to be dry as it
moves through. The models do show another upper level trough and
surface cold front dropping into the region from Canada Sunday night
and Monday with only small chances of precipitation with it at this
time. Otherwise, with continued cool prevailing northwest to
northeast surface winds through the entire long term, highs will be
mostly from 5 to 15 degrees below normal. Highs will be mostly in
the 40s and 50s through the period with maybe some lower 60s west
river on Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 648 AM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021


Low VFR/MVFR stratus clouds will continue to wraparound a large
upper level low pressure area through tonight. Along with the clouds
will be light rain and snow showers which will mainly affect ABR and
ATY. Breezy northwest winds will also continue into tonight.





Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Aberdeen, SD (ABR) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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