301
FXUS63 KABR 061551 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
951 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dense fog over portions of central and north central SD will
  stick around through about mid day. Additionally,
  temperatures below freezing will cause freezing fog at times.
  Visibilities less than one mile and light icing could create
  hazardous driving conditions.

- Temperatures Saturday through next Wednesday will warm up to
  10 to 20 degrees above normal for early November, with highs
  in the 50s to 60s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 946 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Still plenty of dense fog out across central and north central
South Dakota this morning, per surface observations and area
webcams. Dropped Hand/Buffalo counties from the advisory, as
things look pretty good now over those areas. The rest of the
advisory area has been extended to Noon CST. No other changes
planned to the today period forecast presently.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 108 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Low clouds have been moving in over areas east of the Missouri River
and over northeastern SD, with fog developing both under and outside
of the low cloud coverage. With high surface pressure over central
and northeastern SD through the afternoon causing the winds to be
light, this fog will be sticking around into the late morning/early
afternoon. A dense fog advisory has been issued as the fog will be
dense and visibilities could be less than a mile at times in these
areas. Another concern with the fog is that the temperatures will be
dropping below freezing in areas with the fog, creating freezing
fog. Some model soundings keep the temperatures under the low clouds
from dropping below freezing, while other models have the
temperatures drop down. Take caution when traveling this morning as
the lower visibilities from the fog and the potential for slick
surfaces from freezing fog could create slightly hazardous travel
conditions through the morning. The fog and low clouds will help to
keep the temperatures from rising to much during the day, so they
will be around normal in the low 40s to low 50s.

The lower clouds and fog will be building back in this evening into
Saturday morning over central and northeastern SD. The low
temperatures look to be below freezing again, which could create
areas of freezing fog into Saturday morning. This fog is forecast to
mix out during the morning and temperatures will be warming up. High
temperatures are forecast to warm 10 to 20 degrees warmer than
normal with these above normal temperatures continuing into the
beginning of the work week. Despite a few frontal boundaries and
surface troughs moving through central and northeastern SD this
weekend, drier air aloft through the beginning of the work week will
help to keep precipitation from developing.

A small upper level shortwave will be moving to the north of SD
Saturday into Sunday, which will help to move a low surface pressure
over Canada to the east. The low surface pressure tightens the
pressure gradient over northern SD Saturday that will create some
stronger winds aloft over northern SD Saturday. The model ensembles
have a 30-50% chance for winds to gust up to and over 30 mph early
Saturday afternoon over north central SD and portions of
northeastern SD north of HWY 212. The models have backed off
slightly on the winds, as they only have a 10-20% chance for gusts
up to 35 mph over north central compared to the lower chances for up
to 40 mph in earlier runs. Minimum relative humidity in the
afternoon will be between 35-55% in these areas, which helps to keep
the fire weather concerns from increasing too much. The grassland
fire danger index values for north central and northern portions of
northeastern SD will be mostly be moderate with portions of western
Corson county getting into the high category.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 559 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Visibility in fog continues to fluctuate between 1/4SM and 3SM.
As a result, TEMPO groups will continue to make the most sense
this morning. Expect improving conditions BY late this morning,
with all but ATY returning to VFR late this afternoon/evening.
However, IFR to low end MVFR ceilings will likely continue
through the period at ATY. Fog will again be possible Saturday
morning.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for
     SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>036-045-048.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...06