554
FXUS63 KABR 111252 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
752 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler temperatures take hold today behind a cold front
  passing through. Expect highs in the mid 50s to upper 60s
  through at least the middle of the week. These temperatures
  are near mid-October normals.

- Some post-frontal showers linger through Monday. Generally
  less than a tenth of an inch is expected, but localized areas
  along the North Dakota/South Dakota border may see a tenth to
  a quarter of an inch of rain.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 749 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

No changes planned. Current forecast is in good shape. Seeing
sporadic light returns on radar out over mainly central/north
central South Dakota, and this off and on radar returns trend
should persist today/tonight. Rather limited measurable
precipitation scenario out of this stuff.

UPDATE Issued at 633 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

A cold front continues to progress across the forecast area early
this morning. Behind the front, winds turn northerly, and will gust
up to 20 to 30 miles per hour across all but parts of northeastern
South Dakota and western Minnesota this afternoon. Cooler
temperatures also take hold behind the front, dropping down to near
mid-October normals through at least the middle of the week (highs
in the upper 50s to 60s). Some post-frontal showers will linger
through Monday, with a 40-80% chance to see measurable rainfall
across the forecast area, increasing from south to north. Along the
border with North Dakota (where model guidance shows a higher degree
of confidence in multiple rounds of light showers passing through on
Monday), rainfall totals could reach as high as a tenth to perhaps a
quarter of an inch at the most.

High pressure will take hold of the region for the start of the work
week, continuing through Wednesday. With this high pressure
overhead, winds will progressively decrease, becoming light by the
time the high pressure center moves overhead late Tuesday into
Wednesday. Strong humidity recovery and temperatures dropping into
the mid-30s Tuesday and Wednesday mornings may bring about chances
for frost, particularly on Wednesday.

Mid- to late-week, the upper-level low over the western CONUS will
move up into the Northern Plains, bringing the next chances for rain
across the region. Latest ensemble runs have backed off a bit on the
rainfall totals over the Aberdeen forecast area, but there is still
a fair degree of spread. Lower end 25th percentiles show only a few
hundredths, while 75th percentile values fall to around an inch
through Friday morning. This is likely in part due to a somewhat
significant southwesterly shift in the axis of heaviest rainfall
totals. Probability to see half an inch of rain now sits at 20-45%,
increasing moving from northwest to southeast. This is down from 50-
70% across the forecast area 24 hours ago, so will continue to keep
an eye on if this trend downward continues.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 633 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

MVFR/IFR CIGs will be increasing across northern SD this
morning, affecting both KABR/KMBG. These CIGs are forecast to
slowly rise to VFR later in the day before lowering back to
MVFR/IFR overnight. Over KPIR, harder to say if these lower CIGs
make it there today, so mentioned SCT030 for the time being.
Better confidence in lower CIGs making their way into KPIR
overnight. Across KATY, it appears to take longer for lower CIGs
to arrive and current forecast does not have it until the
overnight hours. Will continue to monitor trends.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...TMT