725
FXUS63 KABR 102317 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
517 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The chance for precipitation Wednesday night into Thursday
  morning has lowered to 10-20%. Confidence on precipitation type
  and placement remains low.

- Above normal temperatures will continue into the weekend, being
  10-20 degrees warmer than normal.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 508 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Updated discussion for the 00Z TAFs below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 113 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

At 1 PM CST, skies are mostly sunny, amid surface pressure rises.
Temperatures are warming into the 30s and low 40s on 5 to 15 mph
northwest winds.

Surface high pressure will take its sweet time moving out of the
forecast area late tonight into Wednesday morning. Dry weather
conditions are expected with ridging over the region both aloft and
at the surface.

Still expecting some energy to lift out of this west coast upper
level split flow pattern, and move across Nebraska, and perhaps
southern South Dakota Wednesday night/Thursday. Guidance continues
to trend the low track further south, and the potential
precipitation along with it. The probability of the southeastern
forecast zones seeing 0.05 inches or more of water equivalent is
down to at or below 20 percent. Maintaining a 15-20 percent chance
of precipitation (mainly rain) Wednesday night across and south of
the U.S. Highway corridor over toward the far southeast corner of
the CWA early Thursday morning.

Temperatures through Wednesday night should remain above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 113 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

So, a split flow pattern has developed along and west of the U.S.
west coast at the start of the period, with an upper level ridge
downstream of it over the U.S. Rocky mountains. From Thursday
through Friday night, the split flow pattern is forecast to evolve
into more of a unified/connected steering pattern that showcases a
broad (not overly amplified) upper level ridge stretching from coast
to coast. Deterministic GSM`s and ensemble clusters analysis
suggests that it could take from Saturday to Tuesday morning to move
the upper level ridge axis to a position east of the CWA, while new
upper level trof/energy digs out a new west coast longwave trof. At
some point after 12Z Tuesday of next week, some scrutiny will be
needed interrogating potential chunks of low pressure energy
(potential rounds of precipitation) lifting out of this western
CONUS longwave trof.

Besides a small (20-40 percent) chance of precipitation Tuesday,
the extended forecast period is dry and warm. S.A. Ensemble tables
for both GFS and ECMWF ensemble systems show, at least, 1
standard deviation above normal 850hpa temps for most of the
period. And, 25th to 75th percentile ranges for temperature are
rather small, lending confidence to the continued above normal
temperature forecast being advertised.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 508 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR cigs are forecast through the TAF period with light winds
(5-10kts) turning southerly/southwesterly this evening into early
tonight. Winds will remain out of the south/southwest through
midday Wednesday before turning more southeasterly Wednesday
evening. High pressure will continue to keep conditions dry
through the TAF period as well.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MMM
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...MMM