824
FXUS63 KABR 011948
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
248 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow accumulations generally from 2 to 5 inches expected across
  portions of northern SD tonight into Thursday morning. Light
  icing possible over portions of east central SD. Winter Weather
  Advisory remains in effect.

- Heavier snow potentially Friday into Saturday, with amounts in
  excess of 6 inches over northern SD. Icing amounts around one-
  tenth of an inch also possible further south. Winter Storm Watch
  in effect for northern SD into west central MN.

- Temperatures staying below normal until perhaps Wednesday of next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Initial area of snow that has been affecting northern SD a good
portion of the day is slowly diminishing in coverage. Awaiting the
next push of moisture from the south by evening/tonight, and in fact
is already showing up on regional radar mosaic across southwest SD
into the NE panhandle. This will be in conjunction with the upper
wave ejecting out from the Rockies while a surface low gets going
over CO/KS for the overnight period. It still appears rain may be
mixed in with the snow for southern portions of the CWA where
surface temps are likely to be near/above freezing at precip onset.
Between Watertown (KATY) and Brookings (KBKX), soundings do support
a period of freezing rain or sleet later tonight into early Thursday
morning and forecast continues to have icing accumulations over the
southeast CWA, generally below 0.25in. As for snowfall accums
tonight into Thursday morning, forecast calls for a swath of 2 to 5
inches generally along and north of Hwy 212, with some localized
amounts near 6 inches in the higher elevations of the Leola and
Sisseton hills.

Focus then shifts to the 2nd storm system moving in early Friday
morning, then lingering over the area into the day Saturday. Latest
round of model data increased snow amounts over northern SD, within
area of most likely deformation given the current forecast mid-level
low track. Current forecast does show an area of 6+ inches
potentially across northern SD and have thus issued a Winter Storm
Watch to highlight this. Soundings still supporting mixed precip and
freezing rain potential as well, more so across southern areas of
the CWA. Starting to see some ice accumulations around one-tenth of
an inch (or slightly more) showing up over the southern two-thirds
of the CWA.

Looking further ahead from Sunday through Wednesday, temperatures
appear to stay on the cool side (through Tuesday) and below normal,
with highs generally in the 30s and 40s, although 50s are showing up
over central/south central SD. By Wednesday there are indications
warmer air tries to move back into the region as highs rebound into
the 50s and 60s.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

CIGs will gradually lower into MVFR/IFR through the TAF period as
a storm system moves in. Another area of -SN/SN will move
northward into the region by this evening, with VSBY gradually
lowering into IFR/LIFR at times. -RA/RA, or even -FZRA/FZRA is
possible at KPIR and KATY, with the better FZRA potential in the
KATY region.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for SDZ006>008-
     011-018>023.

     Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Saturday evening
     for SDZ006>008-011-018.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ Thursday for
     SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037.

     Winter Storm Watch from late Thursday night through Saturday
     afternoon for SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for MNZ039-046.

     Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Saturday evening
     for MNZ039.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...TMT