084
FXUS63 KABR 290746
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
246 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High temperatures today will be in the upper 90s to low 100s over
central and north central South Dakota. Heat index values up to 102
will be possible. A Heat Advisory is in effect from 12 PM CDT
through 8 PM CDT today for that area.

- Western wildfire smoke may impact visibility at times across the
region through this evening. Smoke may drop air quality to the point
of impacting those sensitive to smoke.

- A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather is in place over
parts north central South Dakota west of the Missouri River this
evening. Wind gusts of 60 miles per hour will be the main severe
threat.

- A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather is in place
Thursday. The main hazard will be wind gusts of 60 mph and hail of
one inch in diameter.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Main forecast focus today is the continuation of abnormal heat
thanks to a broad upper-level ridge allowing a warm airmass into the
region. Over central and north central South Dakota specifically,
heat index values will top out over 100 degrees this afternoon, and
Heat Risk will reach the Major category in some places. With these
factors in mind, a Heat Advisory has been issued for this afternoon
over central and north central South Dakota. Admittedly parts of the
area under the advisory are a bit borderline and/or spotty for
reaching Heat Advisory criteria of 100 degree apparent temperatures.
One potential failure point for temperatures today will be the
addition of smoke across the region originating from wildfires in
the Pacific Northwest. Smoke is mainly expected to remain aloft
(still having an impact on temperatures), although some near-surface
smoke remains possible. Concentrations at the surface may cause some
minor visibility  reductions and push air quality up to Moderate
levels (which corresponds to Air Quality Index values of 50-100).
This level of air quality means that mainly those sensitive to smoke
will be impacted.

Beginning this evening into tonight, a severe weather threat will
emerge over parts of north central South Dakota, mainly west of the
Missouri River. The latest high-resolution guidance keeps most of
the storms to the west until the late evening to early overnight
hours. By the time storms reach the Aberdeen CWA, they will
encounter an environment that will not be particularly supportive of
storms. A lack of strong shear (037-
     045-048-051.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...06