899
FXUS63 KABR 221149 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
549 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Bitterly/dangerously cold air moves in tonight and persists
  through the weekend. At its coldest, wind chill values bottom
  out from 30 below to 45 below zero tonight through Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 539 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 12Z TAFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 433 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

The main theme in this period will be the bitterly cold temperatures
and dangerous wind chills that will begin take up residence across
the forecast area later today into tonight and Friday. Before
getting to those details, variable cloud cover persists across the
forecast area early this morning along with occasional flurries or a
brief light snow shower or two. Gusty northwest winds also persist
in some areas ranging between 20-30 mph. We may see these winds
abate some through the remainder of the pre-dawn hours as sfc
ridging across western and central SD nudges a bit east-
southeastward. This will be short lived however as gusty north to
northwest winds will pick up again later this morning behind an
arctic frontal boundary that will push south through the area and
unleash some of the coldest air of the season.

Neutral thermal advection will continue until about sunrise to mid
morning allowing temperatures to remain fairly steady in the upper
single digits to mid teens. Cold air advection will then kick in
post fropa and become increasingly significant by midday and
afternoon as a 1045mb arctic high pressure system builds in. 925mb
temperatures are progged to drop from -10C to -20C this morning to
-25C to -30C tonight into Friday morning. Temperatures will slowly
fall into the single digits above and below zero through the course
of the afternoon. Wind chill values will remain relatively "warm" in
the single digits to near 20 below through early afternoon, but then
begin to plummet into a 15 to 25 below range the latter half of the
afternoon. Winds will slowly diminish this evening but remain
stirred enough and combine with temperatures falling into the teens
to around 20 below tonight to produce dangerously cold wind chills
ranging from 35 below to around 45 below across our north and
northeast zones. Therefore, upgraded the Extreme Cold Watch to an
Extreme Cold Warning for parts of north central/central SD and all
of northeast SD and west central MN. A Cold Weather Advisory remains
in place across our south central SD zones where wind chill values
will bottom out around 30 below. These conditions are expected to
persist through Friday morning with gradual improvements anticipated
by late morning and early afternoon. Very cold temperatures will
persist however on Friday with highs only reaching the 5-10 below
zero range with coldest readings across the Sisseton Hills region
into west central MN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 433 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

The dangerously cold arctic air will remain over the region through
the weekend before this coldest of air finally tracks eastward early
next week. At the surface, this northwest to southeast oriented
large arctic high will be positioned from the Central Plains through
the Ohio Valley and northward, with the center of the ~1048mb high
over the eastern Dakotas through MN Friday evening. By Saturday
morning, the region will be on the western side of the high and west
of an area of low pressure over the northern Rockies. MSLP is still
running 2 to almost 3 standard deviations above climo Friday evening
through Saturday morning over the CWA, meaning the climatological
percentile relative to 13 Jan-03 Feb is 99% to all time max per
NAEFs! These values then decrease west to east with the exit of the
high through the weekend. Otherwise, by Sunday another high will
swing down from the northwest and over the region.

850/925mb temps Saturday morning are forecast to range between -20
to -25C, coldest over northeastern SD. Temps at 850mb run in the 2-4
percentile range per climo, which is about 1-2 standard deviations
below climo per NAEFs. NBM`s latest run is similar to the previous
run with forecast morning lows ranging in the single digits to teens
below zero. We do have more cloud cover to deal with, so less likely
for strong radiational cooling to tank them even further. Wind
chills will still run in the twenties to possibly thirty below zero
range. For Saturday day through Sunday, 850/925mb temps will
continue to run in the teens and twenties below zero. Sunday and
Monday`s morning lows will mainly be in the single digits to teens
below zero and windchills in the twenties to potentially around 30
below zero. EFI values for max and min temps range from 0.7 to 0.9
with a shift of tails of zero as highs will range a few degrees
below zero to the single digits above zero, with the colder day
being Sunday as the secondary high is overhead. Early to the middle
part of next week as we sit between this ridge and trough, 850/925mb
temps during peak heating will "warm up" ranging in the single
digits to teens below zero! This will allow surface temps to "warm"
in the lower teens to lower 30s, warmest over south central SD early
next week. Colder air will sink southwestward over the CWA by
Wed/Thursday bringing a gradual cooldown.

Precip chances are possible Friday evening into early Saturday along
the gradient between this high and low over the southern CONUS and a
shortwave tracking south/southeastward out of Canada. ENS is
trending this storm system a bit northward and tries to bring this
light snow potential mainly James Valley and westward while
GEFS/GEPS keep chances over central to south central SD. With such
dry/cold air over the area, it may be hard to squeeze anything other
than flurries elsewhere. With collab from FSD/UNR, we decided to
remove the eastward extent of pops, with pops of 15-30% mainly over
south central SD. Probability of 0.1" of snowfall is 20-40% over
south central SD per GEPS/GEFS with ENS still aggressive at 50-90%,
highest south central but covering chances over the entire CWA. So
if this ENS trend continues, pops may need to be added back/extended
north and eastward.

Early next week a ridge will move in over the western CONUS (and
amplify) with the CWA between this ridge and large trough of low
pressure to our east, in northwest flow. This ridge really does not
move much through next week as of now. Other than slight chance of
pops early Wednesday (15%), overall dry conditions expected.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 539 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will be the overall prevailing conditions at all
terminals through this TAF cycle. However, can`t rule out a couple
of hours of MVFR cigs and scattered flurries through this morning.
Winds will increase this morning from the north to northwest and
remain gusty between 20-30 knots at times through the afternoon
but then begin to diminish some tonight.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening to 3
     PM CST /2 PM MST/ Friday for SDZ003>011-015>023-034-036-037.

     Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening to 3
     PM CST /2 PM MST/ Friday for SDZ033-035-045-048-051.

MN...Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM this evening to 3 PM CST Friday
     for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Vipond
SHORT TERM...Vipond
LONG TERM...MMM
AVIATION...Vipond