335
FXUS63 KABR 162319
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
619 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low temperatures tonight will range in the low to mid 30s with
patchy to area of frost possible.

- Winds will increase tonight into Saturday, with a 40-70% chance
for gusts to be greater than 45 mph along the eastern edge of the
Sisseton Hills.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 619 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Under a clear sky before winds increase, temperatures will
quickly fall around 10F in the next 3 hours before steadying out
as the winds increase out of the south. No significant changes
are anticipated to the ongoing forecast at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

An area of high pressure over the region is producing cool
temperatures across the forecast area with readings in the 40s
and 50s. These readings are 5 to 10 degrees below average for
this time of year. With the cool atmosphere, temperatures could
fall quickly upon sunset, with reading in the 30s. Solely based
the forecast low temperatures, have issued a frost advisory for
the James River Valley, and a freeze warning further east. While
marginal conditions, will lean on the side of caution for these
headlines. As the surface high shifts southeast of the region,
the forecast area will see increasing southerly winds, with
gusts possible exceeding 35 to 45 mph along the higher terrain
areas. There is a 40-70% chance for wind gusts to be greater
than 45 mph along the eastern edge of the Sisseton Hills. The
winds, along with some temperature advection may cause
temperatures to become steady or slowly rise Saturday morning.

Warmer temperatures will move into the area for the weekend with
highs reaching the upper 50s and 60s. The upper level flow pattern
through next week favors above average temperatures and mostly dry
conditions. A deepening trough along the west coast will cause upper
level ridging over the Northern Plains through most of the next work
week. The west coast trough should move across the desert southwest
and eventually into the area by the end of the work week and through
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 619 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will continue over the next 24 hours, with winds
out of the south increasing with gusts 20-30kt at most sites
from 16Z through the afternoon hours. Slightly lighter winds are
anticipated over north central SD (MBG), with gusts generally
less than 10kts.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Saturday for
     SDZ020>023.
     Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Saturday for
     SDZ006>008-011-018-019.
MN...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Saturday for
     MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...17
AVIATION...06