810
FXUS63 KABR 311816
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
116 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rainfall chances (50-70%) return for Tuesday/Tuesday night.
  Severe weather unlikely, generally confined to areas
  along/south of I-90.

- Above normal temperatures (+5 to +10 degrees) remaining in
  place through much of the upcoming week, especially the
  latter half and into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Pleasant conditions in place across the region today with surface
high pressure overhead and drier air with dewpoints in the 50s.
Overnight, temperatures look to fall into the 50s for most locations
with increasing high clouds in advance of an approaching mid-level
shortwave. This wave will come up from the southwest and is still
taking aim at the central/northern plains Tuesday into Tuesday
evening. Latest timing from the models would bring showers into the
southwest CWA late Tuesday morning or closer to 18Z, with activity
then spreading northeast across portions of the remaining CWA
through the afternoon and into the evening hours. Severe storm
potential looks limited over the region, with the better instability
setting up further south across southern SD and into NE/IA closer to
the surface boundary. That said, HREF ensemble MUCAPE values do
reach 750-1000 J/KG by 00Z Wed over Jones/Lyman counties. Newest Day
2 SPC Convective Outlook does bring the Marginal Risk area right up
to the bootheel of Lyman County. As for rainfall amounts, NBM mean
QPF values are generally from 0.25in to 0.60in across the region,
but any areas of heavier rainfall in thunderstorms could bring
upwards of an inch or more as noted by NBM90th amounts between 1.00-
1.50in.

Looking further ahead towards the end of the week and upcoming
weekend, it still appears the overall upper pattern will feature a
large building ridge across the central CONUS, poking northward into
the Northern Plains. Grand Ensemble mean 850mb temps Thursday
through the weekend generally show +24C to +27C across the region,
which is running around the 95th to 98th percentiles for this time
of year. High temperatures Thursday through Saturday are forecast in
the upper 80s to mid 90s across the CWA, warmest over central SD.
Dewpoints will be creeping upward as well, with inherited NBM
readings in the mid/upper 60s to around 70 degrees across the
eastern CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...TMT