846
FXUS63 KABR 171906
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
206 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds out of the northwest will gust up to 45-55 miles per hour
today over central and portions of north central South Dakota. A
Wind Advisory is in effect through 9 PM CDT this evening for that
area. Winds of this strength may make driving difficult, especially
for high profile vehicles.

- Scattered showers continue the rest of this afternoon and into
this evening. Isolated thunderstorms may develop as well, but are
expected to be short-lived. No severe weather is anticipated today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

As a low pressure center passes to the east, a tight pressure
gradient on the back side brings strong northwesterly flow to the
forecast area today. Strongest wind gusts this afternoon are
expected over central and parts of north central South Dakota,
between 45 and 55 miles per hour expected at their peak. A Wind
Advisory is currently in effect until 02Z this evening for that
area. Beyond that point, the pressure gradient will weaken as the
low pressure center continues off to the east.

Scattered showers and expected to continue this afternoon as well,
tracking from northwest to southeast. Marginal MUCAPE will exist
across the forecast area this afternoon and evening (highest of
around 500 J/kg near the ND/SD border) so can`t rule out some
thunderstorm development as well. However with any developing
storms, shear of less than 30 knots will be in place, so any strong,
sustained storms are not expected at this time.

With part of the Northern Plains sitting in the entrance region of
an upper-level trough, there will be additional chances for shower
development Thursday and Friday due to a jet streak moving into the
trough. Overall, expect more of the same in terms of shower strength
and the possibility for some weak thunderstorms. However, coverage
both tomorrow and Friday will be a bit more isolated, mainly located
over north central South Dakota tomorrow, shift to northeastern
South Dakota and western Minnesota on Friday. No severe weather is
expected through the end of the work week.

There is some signal for a severe risk on Saturday as the upper-
level pattern begins to transition to a weak trough over Canada
exerting influence over the region. While the greatest threat appear
to be to the southwest of the Aberdeen forecast area, medium range
machine learning models show a fairly consistent signals for
potential over parts of central South Dakota. The  probabilities
given in this guidance at this point would be consistent with a
Marginal Risk. An early look at model soundings and environmental
parameters shows a modest CAPE/Shear combination that may be able to
produce something, but confidence is low. If things were to take a
shift to the northeast, that would be a different story, but for now
the setup looks less than impressive over the Aberdeen CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Light rain showers are making their way into the forecast area early
this afternoon, and are expected to continue through the rest of the
afternoon and evening. While rain rates will generally be light,
these showers may occasionally lower ceilings to MVFR levels and
cause minor reductions in visibility. Can`t rule out weak
thunderstorms this afternoon either, although any that form are
likely to be short lived. For the moment have only included
thunderstorm chances in the KMBG TAF due to slightly higher
confidence and lightning observed off of satellite upstream.
Amendments to other sites to include thunder mentions will be issued
if needed.

The other potential aviation concern today are strong northwesterly
surface winds today, coming out of the northwest. Winds will be
strongest over central and parts of north central South Dakota,
where gusts will top out around 45 knots. Winds will begin to die
down this evening, eventually reaching around 10 knots gusting to 15
overnight and remaining northwesterly.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
     SDZ003-009-015>018-033>037-045-048-051.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...BC