889
FXUS63 KABR 080550
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1250 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild with temperatures about 5 degrees above normal today with
  light south southeast winds.

- Heat and humidity return for Friday, with highs in the mid 70s
  to mid 80s (15 to 25 degrees above normal). South winds
  increase to 20 to 30 mph.

- Peak heat Saturday, with highs in the 80s, about 20 to 25
  degrees above normal. Lower humidity and southwest winds
  topping 25 to 40 mph (highest across the Sisseton hills)
  resulting in high fire danger across the east.

- Pattern change to cooler temperatures Saturday night into
  Sunday along with increasing chances for moisture Sunday and
  Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

In regard to precipitation chances today, CAMS show some returns
coming through later this morning. RRFS/RAP and HRRR BUFKIT profiles
indicate moisture associated with this is AOA 12kft so little more
than a sprinkle. Not much impact associated with this very subtle
northwest flow wave otherwise, with weak high pressure moving east,
return southeast low level winds for today.  Clouds depart mid-day
to the afternoon, so favorable daytime heating, but the wind
direction is less than favorable for mixing.

CAMS still indicate warm advection elevated convection potential,
but have shifted it more towards south central/southeast South
Dakota. RRFS still has a moist/warm tongue at about 800mb, with
convergence with steep lapse rates aloft. Something to monitor but
unlikely to impact our area now.

For Friday, a plume of humid air comes up with the persistent south
winds. NBM dewpoints top out around 60F, which will limit the fire
danger while mixed winds top out around 20kts.

Saturday should be the warmest day for most of the area. First
though, 1/2km winds increase out of the southwest to around 45kts
with the core across the east/western Minnesota. This will likewise
enhance downslope conditions with that warm air surge, though with
only 45kts in the critical layer and unidirectional flow aloft
translates to about 45 to 50 mph. In regard to just below record
temperatures, GEFS 850mb thermal anomaly is still above 2 standard
deviations above climo. Southwest low level flow will likewise
enhance mixing, and we`ll probably exceed the mean NBM which
is currently running in the mid 80s.

Still looking like the wave for Monday is embedded within the
northern stream and the cut off low over the 4-Corners fails to re-
integrate until late in the 180 hour model timescale. Thus, while we
retain POPs, overall rainfall amounts are fairly limited.

Much cooler air follows, especially when in comparison to the
previous days. The difference between Saturdays and Mondays NBM
highs is around 30 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will continue through the period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...06