928
FXUS63 KABR 131723
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1223 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A dangerous and prolonged heat wave will continue through this
week with temperatures and heat index values warming into the triple
digits each afternoon.

- An Extreme Heat Warning for north central SD and a Heat Advisory
for parts of central and northeast SD and west central MN continue
through Thursday.

- The combination of humidity dropping near or below 20%, wind gusts
of 20-35 mph, and dry fuels will lead to elevated fire danger
concerns across portions of north central SD this afternoon.
Therefore, a Red Flag Warning remains in effect for Corson and Dewey
counties.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

The main story today remains the persistent, dangerous heat across
the region. The upper ridge does not appear to weaken or budge until
Thursday at the earliest. A weak cold front is now slated for
Friday/Friday night on the global models. Timing has been
inconsistent with this sfc feature, though there is higher
confidence in some movement of the sfc high/upper ridge by Sunday.

Winds will be the mitigating factor for heat indices through the
work week. Breezy southwest winds will usher in drier, hotter air.
The lower dewpoints across central SD will result in lower min RH
through Wednesday. The winds will also help quickly dry out fuels as
the lower dewpoints spread east toward the James Valley through mid
week. While only Corson and Dewey counties are in the Red Flag
Warning this afternoon, when winds increase to 25 to 35 mph gusts on
Wednesday, more counties may merit consideration for fire headlines
around the Missouri.

No changes planned to the current headlines at this time. Blended in
some ConsShort to limit GFS dry/hot bias on temperatures today and
Tuesday. No change in messaging planned.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ Thursday for
     SDZ005>008-010-011-017-018-021-033>037-045-048-051.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ Thursday for
     SDZ003-004-009-015-016.
     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for SDZ003-015.
MN...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT Thursday for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20