566
FXUS63 KABR 081723 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1123 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry and mild over the next several days, with high
temperatures remaining above normal in the 50s and mid 60s through
Tuesday.

- Brief cool down on Wednesday/Thursday will bring closer to normal
values to central and northeastern SD, in the 40s and 50s. However,
there are indications of mild and above normal temps returning by
next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1121 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 18Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 1012 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

Increased high temps today just a degree or two above previous
forecast. Otherwise, everything on track today for well above
normal highs in the 50s to low 60s. Will see passing high clouds
throughout the day, perhaps becoming a bit more expansive by
later in the afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1236 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

An upper-level ridge is moving over SD today, which is helping to
push a bit of high pressure over the state. This high pressure will
move some more warm and dry air into SD today. Temperatures today
and Monday will be warmer than normal, in the 50s to mid 60s. The
drier air aloft will help to keep precipitation from developing over
the next few days, even with a few frontal boundaries moving through
the state. Speaking of boundaries, there will be a weak cold front
moving through SD tonight into Monday morning. While this cold front
won`t dramatically change temperatures overnight, it will help
cooler air to move in over the period of a few days and will cool
temperatures slightly. Monday will be 10-20 degrees warmer than
normal and Tuesday 10-15 degrees warmer than normal, then Wednesday
and Thursday will be around normal to about 10 degrees warmer than
normal.

An upper-level trough will be moving over SD Tuesday night into
Wednesday. This will help to push a surface low pressure over the
Northern Plains into MN Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with
the low acting a bit like a clipper system. The models do vary the
location of this low, as the Canadian model has it moving over
western and central SD and other models have it moving from ND to
MN. In addition to the low`s track, the models also vary whether
there will be precipitation moving in along with the low and if that
precipitation will move over central or northeastern SD. Because of
the variability in the models, as well as lower amounts of moisture
in the atmosphere, there is low confidence in rain showers
developing over the area. There is a 10-15% chance for isolated rain
showers to develop over northeastern SD Tuesday evening into the
early nighttime hours, with higher chances to the east over MN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1121 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. There may be
a period of low-level wind shear (LLWS) overnight at KPIR and
have inserted mention of this into the TAF. Elsewhere, LLWS
conditions appear to be marginal overnight.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...TMT