553
FXUS63 KABR 071730 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1130 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Precipitation in the form of rain and snow is expected tonight
through Saturday afternoon. Light snow or rain/snow mix is expected
over northeastern South Dakota into west central MN and mainly rain
expected over central South Dakota.

- There is a 35% chance of snow accumulation of 1" or more, mainly
over the higher elevations of the Sisseton Hills tonight through
Saturday afternoon.

- Winds out of the west to northwest will gust 35 to near 45 mph
late Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon over central SD.

- 5 to 15 degree below normal temperatures Saturday through Sunday
night, with wind chills down around zero Sunday morning.

- Above normal temperatures return for the Tuesday - Friday
timeframe.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1128 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Updated discussion for the 18Z TAFs below.

UPDATE Issued at 1015 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Updated the forecast this morning to remove the mention of pcpn in
the eastern half of the CWA. The showers associated with the cold
front has pushed southeast of the area. That said, there are
isolated flurries over eastern ND. Will hold off on adding
flurries for now. With the CAA, most of the CWA has probably
reached peak heating, with hourly temps steady, or slowly falling
this afternoon.

UPDATE Issued at 513 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Updated discussion for the 12Z TAFs below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 242 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

As of 2am, a few clouds are moving in from the north, associated
with a cold front extending west to east across ND with temperatures
ranging in the lower to upper 40s. By 12Z, the region lies to the
west of the low pressure system that will be positioned over the
Great Lakes region with its trough extending westward through the
CWA. A cold front will continue to track southward out of ND and
forecast to be along the ND/SD border and over south central SD
through southeastern SD by 18Z. Current radar does indicate light
rain showers associated with this front in ND with several of the
CAMs and EC meteograms indicating this rain (rain/snow mix over
portions of the Coteau) moving in over portions of northeastern
SD/western MN through the late morning. Highest pops of 40-60%
line along the ND/SD border from Brown through Traverse Counties
and over the northern Coteau. High temps for today will be tricky,
as north central/northeastern SD/western MN will stay in the
lower to mid 40s as colder air behind the front will be overhead
(and clouds) while south central SD may be able to warm up into
the lower to mid 50s as the front will only be near this area so
less time for cold air influence. Also, a low will be sitting just
off to the west. NBM 25- 75th for MaxT ranges from 3 to 6
degrees, highest from Corson/Dewey through south central SD where
confidence is lower due to the front`s positioned. For example,
KPIR 25th max is 50 degrees and 75th max is 56.

By 00Z, a low is forecasted to be over southwestern SD with another
low (clipper) hovering over the MT/Saskatchewan border with its
shortwave right behind it aloft. Both of these lows will track
southeast with the southern low over southeastern NE by 12Z Saturday
and the clipper low over north central SD. This clipper becomes
weaker with more of an inverted trough overhead as the system
continues to track southeast into IA through Saturday evening. With
this setup, HREF/NBM has precip moving in over north central SD with
the clipper and over south central SD with this southern low.
Through tonight and Saturday, precip with the clipper will track
southeast and precip with the southern low will track east/southeast
over the CWA. North central though south central SD, ptype should
mainly be all rain with James River valley and eastward being all
snow. In between these two areas could see more of a rain/snow mix
where temps will be hovering close or around the freezing mark.
Lower confidence exists here on exact precip ptype as the NBM 25-
75th spread for MaxT is 7-10 degrees from north central and
southeastward through east central SD. So any warmer or colder
temps would make a difference on exact precip type, faster/slower
transitions, and therefore snow accumulation potential. This
includes towns of Herreid through Selby and down through Faulkton
and Spink County locations. Another wave of precip in the form of
rain/snow mix or snow is possible east of the Mo River Saturday
afternoon. 24hr QPF, ending 00Z Sunday per both NBM/HREF looks to
remain at 0.10" or lower with probability of 0.10" of QPF ranging
from 25-30% from Redfield and eastward through Watertown. 90th
percentile (10% chance) would be around 0.1 to 0.2" for east
central SD. Snowfall amounts remain at an inch or less, with the
highest amounts over/along the eastern slopes of the Coteau with
the 90th percentile of 1-2" James River Valley and eastward with
localized 3 inches over portions of the Coteau.

Behind the clipper, CAA (-12 to -20C/12hr 925-850mb at 18Z Saturday
per EC)over central SD and pressure rises of +8 to +12mb/6hrs
between midday through the afternoon will lead to winds increasing
out of the northwest. Both NBM4.3 and NBM5.0 are pretty similar
(difference of 3kts max) with gusts of 30-40kts over central SD,
highest over the higher elevations over south central SD. NBM
probability of gusts>45 mph is 30-45% over our extreme southern CWA.
Comparing to HREF and its prob has more 30-40% west of the Mo River.

So as mentioned, highs for today will range in the 40s to the upper
50s, warmest over south central SD with lows tonight ranging in the
20s to the mid 30s. Highs for Saturday will range in the 30s to the
lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 242 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Well, it looks dry, and temperatures that start about 10 degrees
below climo flip to 10 degrees above climo after Monday.

We open the long term period with a meridional pattern and northerly
flow aloft. 850mb temperatures are about a standard deviation below
climo. NAM isn`t picking up any shallow moisture layers on the east
side of high pressure, so no cold Canadian airmass surprise low QPF
low POPs light snow as far as I can tell. The high moves overhead
for late Sunday with very favorable radiational conditions Sunday
night. The high continues south on Monday at which point we get into
return flow.

Low pressure in Canada supports a warm frontal passage Monday night,
with a very mild modified Pacific airmass in its wake. 850mb
temperatures at this point are a standard deviation above climo,
though cooler air follows for the day Tuesday and Wednesday. There
will be another surge of mild air late in the week as well.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1128 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

MVFR and IFR cigs will continue impacting all terminals through
the valid TAF period. A clipper will push through the area this
evening, bringing the chance of light snow to KABR/KATY and rain
to KPIR/KMBG through Saturday afternoon. IFR visibilities will be
possible with the falling pcpn.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...SD