253
FXUS63 KABR 162330
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
630 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe storms
  across north central SD this evening through the overnight
  hours. The main threat will be wind gusts of around 60-70 mph
  over north central SD. 1" hail will also be possible over far
  north central SD.

- Widespread precipitation move into mainly north central to
  northeastern SD/west central MN late this evening through
  Wednesday. Mainly dry weather will continue over south central
  SD.

- Winds out of the northwest will gust 45-55 mph Wednesday,
  particularly over portions of central SD. Those driving high
  profile vehicles are asked to drive with caution.

- The combination of strong winds and dry conditions will result
  in elevated fire weather conditions over portions of south
  central SD, where relative humidity falls into the 30-40%
  range Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

An area of light showers coming off an elevated cloud deck
(8-12kft) continue to shift across eastern South Dakota into
Western Minnesota. Just a few hundreds if anything has been
recorded. Additional shower activity has begun to move across
north central South Dakota, a combination of destabilization due
to daytime heating, and advection out of North Dakota
associated with the approach of a northwest flow shortwave. This
activity is likewise high based, and NAM/RAP/HRRR BUFKIT
profiles depict skinny mid level cape above a dry layer that
extends to the surface. Bases are just barely below the freezing
level, so a microburst threat is the most likely for severe
weather. Thus far, no high winds with this elevated convection
with the highest thus far being 44 mph at the SDSU mesonet
station 3 miles west of Isabel in Ziebach county.

See below for an update to the aviation discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

A broad area of low pressure at the surface was set up over
Saskatchewan and northeastern MT, with a ridge of high pressure set
up over far eastern SD into MN. Ongoing light showers over
northeastern SD will continue to slow exit this afternoon.

The area of low pressure will shift across central ND/SD by 06Z and
to the SD/MN border by 12Z Wednesday, with cold air advection taking
hold. Showers and thunderstorms over north central South Dakota this
evening will expand across the rest of the forecast area overnight.
Updraft helicity tracks are maximized around 02-03Z over north
central SD before sinking southeast and exiting by around 09-11Z. We
continue to highlight this period for potential isolated severe
storms in our social media graphics. Winds will be the main concern,
with gusts of 60 to near 70 mph. 1" hail will also be possible.

If we were staring out with drier fuels/grasses, fire weather would
be more of an issue. Still, any ongoing fire will be impacted by
shifting winds out of the northwest increasing overnight.

Expect winds out of the northwest gusting 45 to 55 mph west of a
line from around Mobridge to Redfield Wednesday morning through
early evening. A Wind Advisory is in effect for much of central SD
Wednesday. Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expect east of this line,
lowest over west central Minnesota. Nearly any shower on Wednesday
will have the potential to produce wind gusts of 60 mph. Relative
humidity over north central to northeastern South Dakota will be 50
percent or higher, while falling in the 30 percent range south of
Pierre where the winds and drier conditions will result in elevated
fire weather concerns.

The surface low will quickly exit to over southeastern MN/IA by 21Z
Monday. A reinforcing cold front will sink south across the forecast
area Thursday, keeping temperatures in the 60s to low 70s. Weak high
pressure will remain overhead.

Looking farther out, Saturday may be another day to monitor. Low
pressure on the lee of the Rockies Saturday morning will organize
and eject a low across the Central Plains (NE/KS/OK) late Saturday
into Sunday. While we will be well north of the area, an inverted
trough will move through our forecast area. About half of the Medium-
Range Real-time AI NWP Convective Hazard Forecasts (NCAR) show the
potential for at least isolated to scattered severe weather. The SPC
Slight Risk area currently is to our south, across NE (closer to the
surface low). We do have 30-70% chance of precipitation during that
time period, highest south.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Aberdeen and Mobridge ASOS reports remain available locally, but
are not being transmitted via the FAA to our web pages. The
issue is being worked on.

Its hard to pinpoint any specific time period over the next 24
hours in which any of the terminals can be guarantied that they
won`t be at least partly impacted by convective showers or weak
storms. VFR conditions otherwise. Winds ramp up tomorrow,
especially for KPIR/KMBG out of the northwest.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/
     Wednesday for SDZ003-009-015>018-033>037-045-048-051.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...07