027
FXUS63 KABR 110620
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
120 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will fall into the low 30s over portions of
northeastern SD this morning. Patch frost to areas of frost will be
possible, with a Frost Advisory in effect.

- Today, continued dry conditions with relative humidity falling to
15 to 30% and southerly winds gusting 30-40 mph will bring high
Grassland Fire Danger Index values to portions of central to
northeastern SD. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for portions
of mainly central SD this afternoon.

- High to very high Grassland Fire Danger is forecast Tuesday and
Thursday as winds gust 35 to 45 mph, with a few locations gusting to
near 50 mph. Relative humidity over much of the area will fall into
the 15 to 30% range.

- High temperatures through Saturday will be in the 70s and 80s,
highest Thursday through Saturday when temperatures will be around
20 degrees above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 120 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

As of 1 AM CDT, temperatures around the area are in the upper 30s
with light winds out of the northeast. Temperatures tonight are
expected to reach the low 30s and support frost development again. A
Frost Advisory is in effect from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT across northeast
SD. This looks to be the last night with frost potential for the
next week at least.

The main concern for the forecast remains elevated fire danger with
strong southerly winds today gusting 30 to 40 mph starting later
this morning and continued dry conditions. A Red Flag warning
remains for south central SD from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT. If RH values
drop below forecast, additional counties to the north may be added.
A cold front will move through this evening into the overnight to
bring northwesterly winds Tuesday that, aided by CAA, are expected
to gust 35 to 45 mph, locally higher gusts of 50 mph possible.
Another cold front moves through Thursday bringing another round of
35 to 45 mph winds after a calmer Wednesday. 10-20 degrees above
average temperatures this week will also contribute to elevated fire
danger. The next chance for some widespread precipitation looks to
be Saturday afternoon through Sunday as a low makes its way across
ND. The chance of more than a tenth of an inch in the 24 hours
ending Sunday morning is about 30% across the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Southerly winds increase today with gusts of 25 to 30 kts. Winds
shift to the west and then the north Monday night. VFR
conditions are expected through the next 24 hours.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for SDZ005>008-010-
     011-017>023.
     Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 9
    PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for SDZ033-035-045-048.
MN...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...20