708
FXUS63 KABR 011127 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
627 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures into the upper 90s to low 100s return over parts of
  central and north central South Dakota this weekend.
  Temperatures are set to cool down to below normal behind a cold
  front for Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Storms develop along a cold front moving over the area late
  Monday into early Tuesday. A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) is in
  place for parts of northeastern and central South Dakota, as
  well as western Minnesota. A Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) clips
  part of far northeastern South Dakota and Traverse County,
  Minnesota. With these storms, the main severe threats will be
  hail of one to two inches in diameter and wind gusts of 60 miles
  per hour.

- Above normal temperatures and strong southerly wind gusts will
  combine to create elevated fire weather concerns over central
  and north central South Dakota this weekend, particularly on
  Sunday when gusts reach as high as 30-40 miles per hour.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 624 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Keeping an eye on some developing fog this morning over parts of
northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota. Skies will remain
mostly clear over the next few hours, allowing for nearly full
humidity recovery over much of the forecast area. Generally light
wind this morning at 5 miles per hour, gusting to 10 at the most.
However, winds at this speed may be just strong enough to dissipate
for development over a lot of the region. In areas in which fog does
manage to form, generally expecting patchy coverage and overall
minor visibility reductions. Should conditions line up perfectly,
visibility down as low as a mile could be possible, but confidence
is low on that playing out in more than highly localized areas this
morning.

Positively tilted upper-level ridge extending into the Northern
Plains will lead to a temperature gradient across the forecast area
today. Northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota will maintain
near-normal temperatures today and tomorrow, while temperatures over
central and north central South Dakota will return to the 90s,
perhaps even touching 100 degrees on Sunday. This above normal heat,
combined with southerly winds gusting up to 20 to 30 miles per hour
over that same area could lead to some elevated fire weather
concerns in that area. The only other forecast item of note today
will be wildfire smoke persisting over the region. Most of the smoke
will remain aloft, and only minor reductions to air quality, if any,
at the surface are expected this weekend.

Pressure gradient tightens Sunday, leading to strong low-level flow
over much of the region. Southerly gusts are expected to reach 30 to
40 miles per hour by the afternoon from the James River Valley and
east. The aforementioned above normal heat over central and north
central South Dakota will help to push afternoon humidity down to
below 30 percent at times, which when combined with the wind leads
to elevated fire weather conditions. The main area of concern will
be counties west of the Missouri River. Red Flag Warning conditions
do not appear likely at this point, mainly due to humidity falling a
bit short of the 20 percent criteria over that area. However, the
Grassland Fire Danger Index will reach High to Very High levels
regardless.

Early next week, an upper-level trough will develop and move over
the Northern Plains. A cold front will move through Monday afternoon
through early Tuesday morning, along which storms are expected to
develop. Severe chances do exist with this setup, and both hail and
wind appear to potential severe threats with storms that develop.
MUCAPE of roughly 1000-2000 J/kg is expected, along with shear of
~40 knots and mid-level lapse rates approaching 8 C/km all
contributing to the hail threat. There is a bit more uncertainty in
the potential wind threat, but there is some signal in model
guidance for DCAPE values over 1000 J/kg and low-level lapse rates
approaching 8 C/km under an inverted-V sounding. Perhaps the biggest
obstacle will be the capped setup, in place around the 700mb layer.
The cap is strongest over central South Dakota and weakens as you
move to the northeast. The forcing from the cold front may help to
break the cap where it is weak, meaning that the most likely area
for severe storm development will be over northeast South Dakota and
western Minnesota. The Storm Prediction Center has placed a Marginal
Risk over much of this area, with a Slight Risk clipping far
northeastern South Dakota as well as Traverse County.

Behind the trough, uncertainty on the upper-level pattern increases
significantly. Ensemble guidance shows some potential signal for
another ridge to build in, but the question remains of how deep that
ridge will be able to build. Highest probability within ensemble
clusters trends towards a solution in which the Northern Plains ends
up on the front side of the weak ridge, perhaps under a weak cold
air advection regime aloft. Regardless of the exact setup, there is
some confidence in temperatures trending back up towards the 80s to
low 90s as the trough moves out.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 624 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Southerly
surface winds may gust up to around 25 kts by this afternoon
across the KMBG region.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...TMT