Select NOAA-NWS Forecast Office Text Products
(Product availability varies with seasons, forecast office, and weather.)
Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD
To Select Another NWS Office Click on Map or Choose from List
|
| Select Forecast Office: | Select Product: |
708 FXUS63 KABR 011127 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 627 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures into the upper 90s to low 100s return over parts of central and north central South Dakota this weekend. Temperatures are set to cool down to below normal behind a cold front for Tuesday and Wednesday. - Storms develop along a cold front moving over the area late Monday into early Tuesday. A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) is in place for parts of northeastern and central South Dakota, as well as western Minnesota. A Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) clips part of far northeastern South Dakota and Traverse County, Minnesota. With these storms, the main severe threats will be hail of one to two inches in diameter and wind gusts of 60 miles per hour. - Above normal temperatures and strong southerly wind gusts will combine to create elevated fire weather concerns over central and north central South Dakota this weekend, particularly on Sunday when gusts reach as high as 30-40 miles per hour. && .UPDATE... Issued at 624 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Aviation discussion updated below for the 12Z TAFs. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Keeping an eye on some developing fog this morning over parts of northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota. Skies will remain mostly clear over the next few hours, allowing for nearly full humidity recovery over much of the forecast area. Generally light wind this morning at 5 miles per hour, gusting to 10 at the most. However, winds at this speed may be just strong enough to dissipate for development over a lot of the region. In areas in which fog does manage to form, generally expecting patchy coverage and overall minor visibility reductions. Should conditions line up perfectly, visibility down as low as a mile could be possible, but confidence is low on that playing out in more than highly localized areas this morning. Positively tilted upper-level ridge extending into the Northern Plains will lead to a temperature gradient across the forecast area today. Northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota will maintain near-normal temperatures today and tomorrow, while temperatures over central and north central South Dakota will return to the 90s, perhaps even touching 100 degrees on Sunday. This above normal heat, combined with southerly winds gusting up to 20 to 30 miles per hour over that same area could lead to some elevated fire weather concerns in that area. The only other forecast item of note today will be wildfire smoke persisting over the region. Most of the smoke will remain aloft, and only minor reductions to air quality, if any, at the surface are expected this weekend. Pressure gradient tightens Sunday, leading to strong low-level flow over much of the region. Southerly gusts are expected to reach 30 to 40 miles per hour by the afternoon from the James River Valley and east. The aforementioned above normal heat over central and north central South Dakota will help to push afternoon humidity down to below 30 percent at times, which when combined with the wind leads to elevated fire weather conditions. The main area of concern will be counties west of the Missouri River. Red Flag Warning conditions do not appear likely at this point, mainly due to humidity falling a bit short of the 20 percent criteria over that area. However, the Grassland Fire Danger Index will reach High to Very High levels regardless. Early next week, an upper-level trough will develop and move over the Northern Plains. A cold front will move through Monday afternoon through early Tuesday morning, along which storms are expected to develop. Severe chances do exist with this setup, and both hail and wind appear to potential severe threats with storms that develop. MUCAPE of roughly 1000-2000 J/kg is expected, along with shear of ~40 knots and mid-level lapse rates approaching 8 C/km all contributing to the hail threat. There is a bit more uncertainty in the potential wind threat, but there is some signal in model guidance for DCAPE values over 1000 J/kg and low-level lapse rates approaching 8 C/km under an inverted-V sounding. Perhaps the biggest obstacle will be the capped setup, in place around the 700mb layer. The cap is strongest over central South Dakota and weakens as you move to the northeast. The forcing from the cold front may help to break the cap where it is weak, meaning that the most likely area for severe storm development will be over northeast South Dakota and western Minnesota. The Storm Prediction Center has placed a Marginal Risk over much of this area, with a Slight Risk clipping far northeastern South Dakota as well as Traverse County. Behind the trough, uncertainty on the upper-level pattern increases significantly. Ensemble guidance shows some potential signal for another ridge to build in, but the question remains of how deep that ridge will be able to build. Highest probability within ensemble clusters trends towards a solution in which the Northern Plains ends up on the front side of the weak ridge, perhaps under a weak cold air advection regime aloft. Regardless of the exact setup, there is some confidence in temperatures trending back up towards the 80s to low 90s as the trough moves out. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 624 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Southerly surface winds may gust up to around 25 kts by this afternoon across the KMBG region. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...TMT DISCUSSION...BC AVIATION...TMT |
Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Aberdeen, SD (ABR) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)
Products Courtesy of NOAA-NWS
NWS Information Parsing Script by Ken True at Saratoga Weather - WFO and Products Scripts by SE Lincoln Weather.
Mapping by Curly at Michiana Weather and by Tom at My Mishawaka Weather.