886
FXUS63 KABR 281749 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1149 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High temperatures through Friday will be 5 to 20 degrees below
  average. Coldest temperatures will be found east of the James
  Valley.

- There is a 30-60% chance of light snow over central South Dakota
  early tonight into Thursday night. Up to 1.5 inches is expected
  from the Missouri Valley west.

- There is a 45-65% chance of mainly light snow Saturday through
  Sunday morning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1143 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 18Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 831 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Surface high pressure is over the CWA, helping to hold radar
returns to virga or flurries at worst. These flurries should be
ending by mid-day. No other changes to the today period, as
stationary lee-of-the-Rockies surface pressure troffing continues
across the central/northern high plains, including into western
South Dakota.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 215 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Radar continues to show returns early this morning but it is all
virga with a substantial dry layer under the high. The James Valley
east remains in the sfc high through Thursday and, other than some
flurries, stays dry with below normal temperatures.

Across central SD, however, a more saturated mid layer develops
tonight on the western edge of the sfc high in some waa. NBM is
washing out the QPF even though it now has pops in the 30 to 60
percent range, so leaned toward ConsShort and WPC QPF. Current model
runs indicate up to 1.5 inches west of the James Valley with highest
amounts west river in the waa band. Winds remain light, so blowing
and drifting snow is not a concern with this event.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 215 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Thursday night starts the long term with some ongoing snow showers
over central SD, west of the MO River. These snow showers are
expected to continue through mid morning Friday. Accumulations are
expected to be light with the chance of more than an inch of
snowfall accumulation is a little higher than it was yesterday, at
around 15%. Winds are not expected to be very strong at all so
blowing snow doesn`t look to be much of a concern. The next
opportunity for some precipitation is Saturday. Most of the area is
expected to get snow, however, temperatures in the far western
portion of the forecast area look to be warm enough to support
wintry mix and/or freezing rain for at least a few hours during the
afternoon. Snow accumulations are highest over northeast SD into
west central MN with the chance of more than an inch between 20 and
40% east of the James River. For central SD, assuming freezing rain
occurs (20% chance), the chance of a hundredth of an inch of ice is
between 10 and 30%, highest in far western Dewey and Corson
counties. This amount of ice will make travel difficult. Precip is
expected to change over to all snow Saturday evening and move east
and out of the area by Sunday afternoon. There is another chance for
some snow moving into the later part of the period, but
accumulations look to be light at this time.

Temperatures are expected to be much closer to normal with the
exception of Friday which still looks to be about 20 degrees below
normal. Wind chills Friday morning are still expected to be in the -
20 to -25 degree range for areas east of the MO River. This is
expected to be the coldest for the duration of the long term
forecast. Saturday morning will also be cold but the coverage of -25
degree wind chills is not as expansive. Winds Saturday are expected
to be the strongest of the period with some gusts up to 30 mph in
eastern SD, especially around the Prairie Coteau, and could result
in reduced visibilities due to blowing snow.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1143 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

High pressure should keep things VFR through this evening at all
terminals, except may KMBG. Already seeing the effects of the zone
of low level warm air advection happening across portions of the
western Dakotas, Wyoming and Montana. KMBG has begun bouncing in
and out of an MVFR ceiling already. Later this evening, after 03Z,
sub-VFR ceilings and visibilities in light snow will start
overspreading central and north central South Dakota, including
the KMBG and KPIR. Light snow should begin tapering off by mid-day
Thursday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...10