100
FXUS63 KABR 181315
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
815 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler today, but above normal heat and humidity returns
  Sunday and Monday. Heat index values will be in the upper 90s
  to 100s over much of the region.

- The next chances for precipitation will be development along a
  cold front moving through the area on Sunday night. A Marginal
  Risk (level 1 out of 5) has been issued for Sunday across areas
  of north central and northeast SD into west central MN.

- Temperatures look to return to normal to perhaps just below
  normal by mid-week next week, with highs in the 80s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 743 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Looking through area webcams, only able to pick up smoke/fog at
Highmore, and maybe at Aberdeen otherwise no real issues with
visibility as we start to mix out.

Radar trends out of Rapid City are decreasing returns, with a
mainly mid level deck riding up along the top of the ridge.
Maybe a sprinkle at most in Stanley/Dewey counties as NAM BUFKIT
indicates cloud decks are up around 10-12kft. Cloud cover will
have a somewhat limiting effect on temperatures for today, in
concert with the slightly cooler airmass in place and the `less
efficient at mixing` easterly low level flow.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

As of 1 AM CDT, temperatures around the area are in the upper 60s to
low 70s with winds out of the north to northeast, generally less
than 10 mph. There will be some smoke across far northeast SD and
west central SD today resulting in some reductions of visibility.
This will help keep temperatures slightly lower, so reduced highs in
this area accordingly. Highs will be cooler today, in the 80s to low
90s, before warmer temperatures and heat index values return Sunday
and Monday.

Some limited precipitation chances return Sunday as well, with a 20-
45% chance of thunderstorms. The first round will be in the morning
across north central SD and the second round will be across central
and northeast SD generally north of I-90 during the evening and
early overnight hours. The next chance for precip is expected to
be Wednesday and mainly in south central SD. As mentioned, heat
returns Sunday and Monday with highs in the 90s to near 100 and
heat index values in the upper 90s to low 100s. Relative humidity
values this afternoon around and west of the Missouri River will
fall into the 20-30% range, but since winds aren`t abnormally
strong, fire danger remains low to moderate. This could chance
Monday as forecast highs get into the 30-35 mph range across
northern SD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 613 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...20