032
FXUS63 KABR 231852
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
152 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 30-60% chance for rain showers to continue over south
central SD this afternoon into the evening.

-There is a slight (level 2 of 5) to marginal (level 1 of 5) risk
for scattered severe storms to develop over north central SD Friday
afternoon. The primary threats will be 1 inch hail and 60 mph
damaging wind gusts.


- A relatively cooler air mass remains in place through today with
near normal temperatures expected. Hot and mostly dry conditions
will return starting Friday and persisting into early next week,
with the warmest temperatures during the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

There are currently some scattered showers mainly over south central
SD, and will continue to stick around into the evening. These rain
showers will most likely stay as rain, though a few rumbles of
thunder cannot be ruled out during the afternoon. While south
central SD is experiencing these showers, the rest of central and
northeastern SD and west central SD will continue to have some
wildfire smoke aloft today and into Friday. Most of the smoke will
stay aloft and create hazy skies. Though, some of it could get to
the surface to create some moderate air quality in some areas.

An upper-level shortwave will be moving over SD Friday afternoon
which will help to support a warm front moving through the state.
This front will interact will the moisture in the air as well as the
instability, with CAPE values around/above 1000 J/kg, to create some
thunderstorms Friday afternoon into the evening. There is currently
a 20-40% chance for scattered storms and showers to develop over
north central SD Friday afternoon into the evening. The lower
confidence/chances is coming from a decent cap the models have over
north central SD that could keep storms from developing. Some high-
res models keep from developing storms Friday due to the cap. Other
models have storms developing in ND then moving into north central
SD, and other have the storms overcoming the cap and develop in
north central SD. As these storms move east into the evening, the
models show them dissipating before getting into northeastern SD due
to a much stronger cap over that area. If any storm is able to
overcome that cap to develop, there is a slight (level 2 of 5) to
marginal (level 1 of 5) risk it could become severe. Strong lapse
rates of 7-8 C/km and wind shear of 30-40 kts will help to cause the
primary threat of hail up to 1 inch in diameter and damaging wind
gust of 60 mph.

An upper-level ridge will start to build over SD this weekend into
the beginning of next week. This will help warm air to push into
central and northeastern SD. The warmest days looks to be Saturday
and Sunday, with temperatures in the upper 90s to mid 100s. Dew
points will be in the mid 50s to low 60s over central SD and the mid
to upper 60s over northeastern SD, which will give minimum relative
humidity values between 18-40%. These lower values will help to keep
the heat index values near the temperatures. Heat index values and
temperatures will have little recovery overnight Saturday into
Sunday, falling into the low 70s. This does keep the area out of
extreme heat warning criteria, though it is right on the threshold.
A heat headline might be needed and considered for the weekend
depending on how the next couple of model runs pan out.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

While there are some low to mid level clouds moving over central and
northeastern SD today, VFR conditions will stick around. KPIR could
see slightly lower conditions during the afternoon as there could
be some rain showers moving over. There are chances for rain showers
through the afternoon before thing start to clear up. There will
also be some lower clouds that move in early Friday morning over
KABR and KATY, which could cause MVFR to IFR conditions for a few
hours. There will be some wildfire smoke coming in aloft, which
could cause some hazy skies and reduce ceilings slightly. Most of
the smoke should stay aloft and not reduce visibilities at the
surface. Southerly winds this afternoon could be gusting up to 20-25
kts over all terminals. The winds will calm slightly tonight before
shifting to be from the south southwest, which could gust up to 20
kts over KATY Friday morning.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...12