860
FXUS63 KABR 060546 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1246 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) is in place for storms
  developing Monday evening and overnight. The main severe
  threats during that time frame will be hail of 1 inch in
  diameter and wind gusts of 60 miles per hour. Locally heavy
  rainfall will also be possible.

- Chances for severe storms return on Tuesday, and a Slight Risk (Level
  2 of 5) for much of the forecast area. All severe threats,
  including wind of 60 to 70 miles per hour, hail of 1 inch in
  diameter, tornadoes, and heavy rainfall leading to flash
  flooding. The heavy rainfall threat is best Tuesday night into
  Wednesday morning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 06Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 637 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Updated for 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

No significant changes to the going forecast this evening, as
the area remains under ridging and dry air aloft. Expect the
convection over far northwest SD to continue to left northeast
this evening, but as the front slowly shifts east, do expect
some isolated showers/thunderstorms to brush the far northern
part of SD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Even with increasing heights across the region, along with limited
forcing, isolated showers developed in Hand and Buffalo
counties. While there is decent instability, the lack of forcing
and deep layer shear should limit convective development

Ridging aloft will continue to build into the area tonight into
Monday with the grand ensemble showing 700 mb temps reaching +12C,
or near the 90th percentile. While not the strongest cap, it may be
enough to keep convection from developing in this CWA ahead of broad
upper level trough. There are several models now supporting the idea
of a mostly dry day across the CWA with thunderstorms developing
over North Dakota, or where better forcing and weaker cap will be
located. Better forcing moves into the CWA around 22-00Z, with an
increasing LLJ developing over the eastern half of the CWA after 0Z
or closer to 3Z Tuesday. After 0Z Tuesday appears to be the best
opportunity for strong to severe storms over the eastern half of the
CWA. With high values of precipitation potential placement, locally
heavy rainfall will be possible with any thunderstorms, especially
over northeastern SD and western Minnesota where the PPP is the
highest.

Convective potential a little more cloudy on Tuesday. Cloud cover
from the overnight thunderstorms could limit the heating potential
leading to a mostly dry day. Or, the atmosphere could destabilize
during the afternoon hours with more robust thunderstorm development.
Overall, a more widespread severe threat appears better Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning. This is when thunderstorms over the
higher terrain areas of the Black Hills goes upscale into MCS with
winds and torrential rainfall the main threats. The PPP is rather
high Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with values exceeding 1.5
inches over a good portion of the CWA. These values show an increase
risk for heavy rainfall, including localized flooding. Because the
heavy rain event is still a few days away, will hold off on
mentioning heavy rainfall in the forecast. The forecast period
becomes drier after Wednesday with mostly above average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the period.
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible late in the period,
associated with a cold front sliding east-southeast across the
area. The frontal passage should switch winds around to the
northwest, first, at KMBG by early afternoon on Monday,
eventually switching the winds around to the northwest at KPIR
and KABR by the end of the TAF valid period. Currently, guidance
holds the highest chance of convection at KABR and KATY mainly
Monday evening. PROB30s are now in both the KABR and KATY TAFs
as such.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...17
AVIATION...10