977
FXUS63 KABR 221911
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
211 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 20-40% chance for showers and thunderstorms during the
day Sunday into early Sunday evening over central SD, expanding to
northeastern SD/west central MN Sunday night while increasing to a
40-60% chance.

- There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe weather
Sunday evening night over much of central to northeastern SD. The
main concerns will be golf ball size hail, wind gusts exceeding 60
mph, lightning, and brief heavy rainfall.

- There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe weather
Monday night. Threat include one inch hail and 60 mph.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

A surface high pressure over the region is producing tranquil
weather conditions across the CWA. The high pressure will shift
eastward tonight, allowing for warm air advection and increasing LLM
to move into the central part of the state. Various CAMS depict weak
showers and thunderstorms developing in central-south central SD
between 10-15Z. These storms may dissipate or move into northern
Nebraska. However, there is a 20-25 percent chance the showers
become a weak broken line associated with the WAA over central and
north central SD.

A good portion of the CWA is under a marginal risk for severe
storms, mainly Sunday afternoon and evening. There are some signals
among models with convection developing over south central ND around
midday, or the juxtaposition of the warm front/cold front location.
These storms may grow upscale into a cold pool MCS, tracking
southeastward across the CWA. The instability and deep layer shear
appears best along and west of the Highway 83, with a decent drop
off further east. If an individual storm is able to tap into the
instability, the severe threat may be golf ball size hail and wind
gusts exceeding 60 mph. The precipitation potential placement
reaches near two inches, with is an indication of locally heavy
rainfall with some storms.

The showers and thunderstorms should exit the CWA around 12Z, with
mostly dry conditions and above average temperatures on Monday. A
frontal boundary sliding southward Monday night will bring a 20 to
40 percent chance of thunderstorms. Some storms may produce quarter
size hail and/or 60 mph winds. After a period of dry conditions
midweek, another storm system will produce 30-45 percent chance of
pcpn Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Prevailing VFR conditions can be for all terminals through the
valid taf period. Will maintain a PROB30 for showers around the
KPIR area between 11-15Z. More widespread showers and
thunderstorms may impact KMBG toward the end of the taf period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...17
AVIATION...17