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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD
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471 FXUS63 KABR 311107 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 607 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rainfall chances (40-70%) return for Tuesday. Severe weather unlikely. - Above normal temperatures (+5 to +10 degrees) remaining in place through much of the upcoming week, especially the latter half and into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1202 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026 Cold front is almost completely across the CWA with dewpoints in the 50s upstream replacing 70s. Convection in the post frontal airmass continues east and weakens through the next few hours. Weak surface high pressure overhead today, with westerly low level flow keeping us dry, but no longer cold advecting aloft. An upper low travels across the southern tier of Canada, with a tighter gradient up in North Dakota, down here mixed winds only top out in the low 20s (kts) for KMBG and lower elsewhere. Once the upper low moves east, an elongated ridge develops extending out of the Bermuda high centered over the southeast. Embedded within this ridge is a band of moisture aloft, coming up out of the tropical Pacific/sea of Cortez region and this is our next round of moisture. NAM BUFKIT profiles show mainly most adiabatic profiles, with NAM PWATS around 1.5 to 1.75 inches and the GEFS closer to a mean of 1.25 to 1.5 but still right at the limit of 2 standard deviations above climo. Southwesterly flow at 500mb is still fairly strong (30- 50kts), however it appears a low level flow is east southeasterly with a weak low, associated with a subtle southwest flow shortwave coming in behind the mid level plume of moisture. Once that system progresses out of the region, a trough over the western CONUS becomes the main defining feature of the upper level flow. Its nearly stationary, with southwest flow aloft overhead under a broad ridge that develops in response. That ridge gradually transitions into the upper level high, all of this shutting us down for moisture. All that time, mid level temperatures are on the increase, topping out around +13 to +15C at 700mb, about a standard deviation above climo. 850mb temperatures are likewise about a standard deviation above climo, with NBM highs/lows running about 5 to 10 degrees above normal, with the warmest days Friday/Saturday with readings 10 to 20 degrees above. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 606 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions for all terminals with a west wind component. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...07 AVIATION...07 |
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NWS Aberdeen, SD (ABR) Office Forecast Discussions.
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