422
FXUS63 KABR 061734
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1234 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Slight (Level 2 of 5) to Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) is in
place for storms developing this afternoon and evening. The main
severe threats will be hail of 1 to 1.5 inches in diameter and wind
gusts of 60 to 70 miles per hour.

- Chances for severe storms return on Tuesday afternoon through
evening, and a Slight Risk is in place for much of the forecast
area. All severe threats, including wind of 60 to 70 miles per hour,
hail of 1 to 1.5 inches in diameter, tornadoes, and heavy rainfall
leading to flash flooding will be possible. There is a slight risk
of excessive rainfall over northeast SD and west central MN.

- A slight cooldown is expected Wednesday through at least Thursday,
with widespread near-normal to just below normal high temperatures
(low to mid 80s). Signs point to a warming trend beginning by the
end of the week, and highs may potentially hit triple digits over
the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

As of 12:30 PM CDT, temperatures around the area are in the mid to
upper 80s with winds out of the southeast between 10 and 15 mph,
gusting to about 25 to 30 mph. A front will move northwest to
southeast across SD and stall about halfway across the area,
bringing winds around to the northwest behind the front. This front
will be the focus for some storms later this afternoon into the
evening hours and again Tuesday afternoon/evening.

There is a low to our southwest over southwestern SD. This will not
move much at all and be over central SD Tuesday morning. There is a
slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe storms over northeastern
SD and west central MN along and east of a line from Aberdeen to
Miller to Watertown. CAMs show storms moving into the northeast CWA
around 7 PM and last until around midnight. MLCAPE over the region
is between 1500 and 1800 J/kg with lapse rates of 7.5 C/kg. Bulk
shear doesn`t look amazing, only about 30 to 35kts. The RAP is
showing DCAPE between 1000 and 1200 J/kg. Main hazards today are
large hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter and strong wind gust of 60-
75 mph. With the lack of shear (bulk and surface level) the tornado
threat is low but can`t be ruled out. Tuesday, there is a slight
risk over the entire forecast area and the environment is much more
favorable. This is expected to be a more widespread event. While
model soundings do show a cap, its not much of one (according to the
RAP and HRRR) and storms should be able to break through it. CAMs
are again showing storms getting started about 7 PM, this time over
central SD and tracking across the entire CWA. Bulk shear is 30 to
40 kts with good surface shear. Lapse rates are in the 7-8 C/km
range. Storms will have an increased chance of tornadoes (SPC
has a 2% area over most of the CWA). Also possible will be large
hail and strong wind gusts. Excessive rainfall and flooding
with be possible with these storms due to heavy downpours and
potentially slow moving/training storms. Wednesday also has a
marginal risk for severe storms.

Hot and humid conditions are forecast for this coming weekend with
heat index values approaching or exceeding 100 degrees, especially
over central SD. This will put HeatRisk values into the moderate to
major categories, affecting anyone without access to cooling and
hydration.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

A broken line of light showers and a few rumbles of thunder
continue over central SD tracking eastward ahead of a cold
front. Additional development of thunderstorms are possible over
northeastern SD into western MN this afternoon through this
evening mainly affecting KABR and KATY. Any stronger storm could
produce 1-1.50" in diameter hail and wind gusts above 58kts.
Prob30s are in place for this potential convection. Ahead of
the front, winds continue out of the south/southwest (KABR/KATY
and switching northwesterly behind it, already affecting
KMBG/KPIR. VFR cigs continue through the TAF period, however,
any stronger storm could bring a brief drop in visibility below
VFR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...MMM