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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD
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306 FXUS63 KABR 301756 AAB AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1256 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe weather is in place over portions of south central SD Thursday. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather is in place for the rest of the forecast area. The main hazard will be wind gusts of 60 to potentially 70 mph and hail of one inch in diameter. - Through Friday morning, much of northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota may see around 1.5"-2" of rain. Localized areas of 3"-4" may be possible, and Flash Flooding will be possible in places that see these higher end rainfall totals. - Temperatures into the upper 90s to low 100s return over parts of central and north central South Dakota this weekend. Temperatures are set to cool down to below normal by the middle of next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026 The aviation discussion has been updated for the 18Z TAFS. UPDATE Issued at 1014 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026 Main updates made to the forecast for the remainder of the today period revolve around precipitation and sky cover trends this morning. An area of showers and storms continue to develop and expand across the Pierre area and points south and east into the I-90 corridor. More isolated showers are developing across parts of east central SD(southwest of the Watertown area). Evolution of this activity calls for continued development and expansion in coverage as the main shortwave trough tracks into the Dakotas out of WY this afternoon into tonight. Best chances for severe weather continue to align south of the US Highway 14 corridor this afternoon and evening. Main threats with any of the strongest storms will initially be large hail before transitioning into a damaging wind threat. Any thunderstorms in the forecast area will have the potential for excessive rainfall with the best probabilities of this occurring from west central MN/east central SD south and west into portions of the James Valley into far south central SD. Rainfall amounts in those locations could range from 1.5 inches to more than 2 inches of rain once this event comes to an end Friday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 251 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026 Keeping an eye on some rain showers and weak storms early this morning as they track east across central South Dakota. Currently (~07Z) this system is producing 30-40 mile per hour winds. Environmental parameters, namely DCAPE and low-level lapse rates for assessing the potential wind threat, have decreased over the past few hours. At this point there is little concern for severe weather over the next few hours. Main forecast focus today will be the storms through the day, produced by a shortwave aloft embedded within the broad upper-level ridge dominating the pattern. Storms will remain possible this morning, but severe chances increase beginning this afternoon and continuing into the evening. Signal in high-resolution model guidance is for multiple potential areas of development during the afternoon - one over northeastern South Dakota and another over central South Dakota. In both areas, there will once again be under a low CAPE/Shear environment (roughly 1000-1500 J/kg and 20-30 knots of shear), so storms will likely have a difficult time producing severe hail. For that same environmental reason however, collapsing storms may produce severe winds at times. There are some potential limitations to those chances however. First, the DCAPE environment will be less than impressive, and hi-res CAMs show a struggle to reach 1000 J/kg. Additionally, due to the cloud cover and rain through the morning, diurnal heating will be somewhat limited over most of the forecast area. This will keep low-level lapse rates well below dry adiabatic, providing another potential obstacle for potential severe winds to overcome. At this time, a Marginal Risk blankets the forecast area, with the addition of a Slight Risk over parts of south central South Dakota. With storms today there is also a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall covering northeast South Dakota and western Minnesota. Over this area, the latest ensemble guidance is fairly consistent in median 24 hour rainfall totals (ending Friday morning) around 1.5"-2" over parts of eastern South Dakota and western Minnesota. The one exception would be the NBM, which pushes median values up over 2". 90th percentile values, a reasonable "worst case scenario", have rainfall totals around 3-4". One potential saving grace is that soils over that area (and really the entire forecast area) are fairly de-saturated. Therefore, the ground should hopefully be able to take a bit of rain before flooding occurs. The flip side is that 3-4" over 24 hours is the point at which flooding tends to occur (based on local research), so if these higher end values verify, flooding is certainly a possibility this evening. Southerly winds this morning will help push most if not all of the remaining near-surface smoke out of the area and to the north. Therefore, expect air quality to remain good this afternoon. Smoke aloft will also be mostly out of the area today, although with cloudy skies all day that will be not much of a concern anyway. However, smoke aloft will likely move over at least part of the forecast area once again on Friday. Near surface concentrations may also reach Moderate levels again, and minor visibility reductions may become possible. Coverage of the highest near-surface concentrations Friday does not appear to be very broad at this point in time. As the shortwave moves out, the upper-level ridge in place will become more positively tilted, leading to a bit of a temperature gradient over the CWA over the weekend. Near-normal temperatures will be in place over the east, but central and north central South Dakota are once again set to reach the upper 90s to 100s, particularly on Sunday. The next chances for rain will come early next week after the dry weekend. The upper-level pattern will shift as a trough pushes down over the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains. With this trough will come a jet streak aloft, and the potential for storm development as a result. Given the extended time frame, diving into the details would be fruitless at this point other than to say that extended model guidance shows some potential for the equivalent of a Marginal Risk for severe weather over the area. This pattern shift will also bring about a cooler airmass over the Northern Plains, and below normal temperatures will be likely (70-90% chance of highs below 85 degrees) Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF sites through this forecast period outside of times when showers and thunderstorms will be moving through the 4 aerodromes. Increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into tonight. Low confidence remains on timing and placement of this activity through the period. Tried to leverage the timing in the direction of best chances for SHRAs/TSRAs in prevailing groups while using PROB30 groups for durations where activity could be more widely scattered. MVFR cigs/vsbys will be possible in the heavier SHRAs/TSRAs with more widespread MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys developing overnight at KABR/KATY due to low stratus and fog. Southerly winds will eventually become north to northeast late tonight/early Friday and become gusty by late in this forecast cycle. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Vipond DISCUSSION...BC AVIATION...Vipond |
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