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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD
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234 FXUS63 KABR 201513 AAB AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1013 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain continues today and diminishes through Wednesday. Ranges run from a few tens of inches in south central South Dakota, to in excess of an inch across the northeast South Dakota and western Minnesota. - Below normal temperatures, by 15-25 degrees, continue through Wednesday before we see a warming trend toward normal (upper 60s to mid 70s) for the weekend that lasts into next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1008 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Current radar continues to show widespread rain and fog/low stratus from the James River Valley and eastward and more widely scattered rain/drizzle over central SD as the upper low continues to spin overhead and surface low over IA/MO. Current temps are only in the lower to mid 40s with winds not as gusty as yesterday, between 10 to 20 mph. I did decrease the pops a bit over central SD (used HRRR/HREF), otherwise the forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 621 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025 See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 12Z TAFs. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/... Issued at 311 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Scattered rain showers continue across much of the CWA early this morning, with low stratus and pockets of fog. Winds are a bit reduced in comparison to 24 hours ago as well. The upper level low sits overhead through the day and into tonight before spaghettifying. During that time a shortwave gets pulled up from the southeast, which will translate into another bout of rainfall lifting into western Minnesota/eastern South Dakota by mid to late morning. That will also enhance mid/low level cold advection, with 850mb temperatures dropping to something on the order of -4 to -1C or nearly 2 standard deviations below climo. The result is temperatures stalled or falling through the day, so low in fact that profiles are leaning towards the introduction to snow as one of the possible p-types overnight. HREF probability of actually accumulating (rather than melting on contact) is about 50/50 for far north central SD and the higher terrain of northeast SD so wouldn`t be totally surprised if we get a few snapshots of a light wet accumulation on elevated surfaces Wednesday morning. We do finally start to see a western edge of stratus and light precipitation in some of the CAMS coming towards the CWA from southwest South Dakota late Wednesday. Overall QPF is still running around an inch plus in the northeast to just a tenth or two in south central South Dakota. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 311 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025 When the period opens Wednesday night, seeing the last of upper level low pressure being sheared apart as upper level low pressure deepens/widens across the eastern CONUS and upper level ridging begins to overwhelm the middle of the CONUS. This large/blocking upper low over the east will force any additional systems working in from the west to either have to turn southeast and go around, or undergo significant shearing aloft as it gets shunted northward into an upper level ridge. Much of the period will see some form of mid/upper level ridging (ensemble clusters heights analysis), interrupted occasionally by these previously alluded-to systems. Per ensemble clusters qpf analysis, an initial (weak) system looks to try to bring some precipitation potential back into the CWA late Thursday night and during the day Friday. Perhaps the western/southwestern third of forecast zones may see a bit of precipitation. An additional system still showing up in the models is progged to move from the intermountain west out onto the plains states over the weekend, with this CWA perhaps seeing some precipitation chances Saturday night into Sunday. There are still some timing/placement issues surrounding this scenario. At the surface, high pressure is sitting over the region for much of the forecast period. If the western forecast zones clear off Wednesday night (currently guidance suggests this is a possibility), when winds are light and variable, surface temperatures would be cool enough to support some frost potential. As such, frost in the grids continues to be advertised across the western forecast zones. Otherwise, it appears there is enough insolation-based low level warming each day in the extended that temperatures should be clearing the well below normal hurdle by Thursday, and settling into a period of near to slightly below normal temperatures for Friday through next Tuesday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 621 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG IFR CIGS and intermittent MVFR VISBY in -SHRA/DZ will be the main themes for the TAFS with little if any improvement expected for the next 24 hours. Late in the TAF valid period, at KMBG, rain p-type may mix with or briefly change over to light snow. Winds are mainly northeast with occasional gusts up to 25 to 30 knots, gradually shifting to the north. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...MMM SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM...10 AVIATION...10 |
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