535
FXUS63 KABR 232335 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
635 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered rain showers to weak thunderstorms will continue
  this afternoon. As showers move eastward into northeastern
  SD and western MN tonight, coverage will become more dense and
  rain rates will increase. Through Thursday morning, there is
  a 60-90% chance to see a quarter of an inch of rain or more
  along and east of the James River.

- Another round of rain arrives Friday afternoon into Saturday
  morning. There is a 30-60% chance to see a quarter of an inch
  through more through Saturday morning.

- Expect temperatures near normal for the next few days, with
  highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Signs point towards a
  cooldown next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

A low-level jet over the region is the driver behind both scattered
rain showers and gusty southerly winds this afternoon. Expectations
for the rest of the day are that showers will continue to develop
and move slowly eastward through the rest of today and through the
overnight period. The vast majority of these showers will have very
light rain rates this afternoon, although some higher rain rates and
a stray rumble of thunder or two may be possible in the strongest
showers. As the low-level jet moves eastward tonight, more
widespread development will take place. Stronger rain rates are
expected in this development, and around a quarter of an inch will
fall along and east of the James River (60-90% chance from the NBM).
Perhaps up to a half inch or more may fall through Thursday
afternoon, beyond which rain is expected to be out of the area. The
other impact of the low-level jet`s progression to the east is that
gusty winds up to 30-35 miles per hour are expected to persist over
northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota overnight tonight
and into early Thursday morning.

An upper-level trough based over the Pacific Northwest will eject a
shortwave into the region late Friday into Saturday, bringing about
the next chances for rain. Once again the best chances for rain will
be during the overnight period. Through Saturday morning, chances to
see a quarter of an inch sit at around 30-60%, with the highest
located along the James River. There is still a fair degree of
spread with this system however, and amounts as high as half an inch
to even an inch of rain through Saturday morning are very much in
play. This system is expected to exit by Saturday afternoon.

Early next week, another upper-level trough over the Pacific will
progress eastward to be over the western CONUS while deepening. This
trough will develop a low pressure center that will move into the
Northern Great Plains, bringing about additional chances for rain
into the region. There is still a bit of uncertainty in the timing
of this rain, but best chances are currently Monday afternoon
through overnight. Current ensemble medians highlight eastern South
Dakota and Western Minnesota for the area of highest rainfall
totals, and ensemble medians in that area sit anywhere between 0.5"-
1.5" through Wednesday morning. NBM probability to see 1" total over
that same Monday-Wednesday time period peaks at 50-70% along and
east of the James River. Mid-to-long-range machine learning
models do hint at some severe potential with this system on
Monday, so that will be something to keep an eye on as this
event draws closer.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

MVFR stratus still covers portions of north central and
northeast South Dakota early this evening. After 03Z, MVFR/IFR
cigs are forecast to fill back in across all four terminals on
south-southeasterly breezes. Overnight, showers should develop
and steadily increase in coverage into northeast South Dakota
and west central Minnesota. The stratus layer should be deep
enough to support areas of drizzle, as well. Something to watch
for overnight. Rain rates are generally expected to be light,
so visibilities should remain VFR/MVFR in showers/drizzle.
Covering the precipitation potential with a mix of tempo`s,
prob30`s and prevailing (fm`s).

Back to the winds...generated by a low level jet/pressure
gradient, that will slowly progress eastward through tonight
and Thursday, southeast winds 10 to 20 knots with occasionally
higher gusts starts things off tonight. While winds will die
down overnight over central South Dakota, expect gusty winds to
persist through the TAF period over northeastern South Dakota
and western Minnesota.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...10