243
FXUS63 KABR 230308
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1008 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms across central SD will move east
  overnight. There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe
  storms, mainly west of the Prairie Coteau, with the potential
  for wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph.

- Strong sustained west winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts 40 to 50
  mph are expected Thursday mainly over central SD. High to very
  high grassland fire danger is expected Thursday afternoon as
  relative humidity falls to 20 to 40 percent.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1008 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

The Red Flag Warnings have been allowed to expire. We continue
to monitor a broken line of showers and storms from near Herreid
through Gettysburg and Pierre. Wind gusts of 40-50mph have been
common, with a few locally higher gusts. Small hail has also
been reported in the strongest looking storms.

UPDATE Issued at 541 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Strong winds, low relative humidity, and dry grasses has
resulted in a few fire starts this afternoon. Outside of
thunderstorms, winds will remain out of the south into the late
evening to overnight hours. While winds diminish 10-20mph over
central SD (from the current gusts of 40-50mph), they will
remain near the current speeds over the higher elevations of
northeastern SD. We`re continuing to watch showers and a few
thunderstorms. We already had a weak thunderstorm bring gusts of
62 mph in McPherson County at 435 PM. Strong winds remain the
primary concern this evening into the early overnight hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 534 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Southerly winds are increasing south of a warm front stretching from
Fort Pierre to Watertown and creeping north this afternoon. Red Flag
Warning remains in effect for the winds that will combine with near
record highs and a very dry air mass to create very high to extreme
grassland fire danger.

Shortwave energy ejecting out of an upper trough over the Rockies
along with 45 to 50 kt llj will help generate convection this
evening starting in central SD around 0z. This will mostly be ahead
of and with a trailing cold front associated with the sfc low in
MT/ND. The marginal risk (1 out of 5) for severe storms has expanded
eastward to include all areas west of the Coteau. The main threat
with the steep lapse rates and enhanced DCAPE will be strong winds
with gusts of 60 to 70 mph (strongest in any short-lived
downbursts). The drier airmass will keep hail to a minimum, but
can`t rule out an isolated cell or two capable of producing 1 inch
hail. No wetting rains are expected with this system through
Thursday, so will need to look closely at the fire weather threat
Thursday, as well. Behind the convection/cold front more dry air
moves in with westerly winds gusting as high as 50 mph across
central SD by afternoon as the upper trough sweeps through with
reinforcing caa. Will likely need a wind advisory for Thursday, but
will push that off to the mid shift given the current headlines in
place for today and potential for fire considerations for tomorrow.

The sfc low shunts north Thursday night. Another trough sets up
early Friday, but models are not in good agreement about precip with
the trough off the Black Hills or with the Colorado low moving into
the plains late Friday. Global models seem to keep precip farther
south even though hi-res puts the initial activity early Friday
morning into central SD. With upper troughing digging into the
northern Plains Thursday into next week, high temperatures will be
below normal, topping out in the 50s through the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 541 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions with high based clouds are starting us off.
However, there are isolated showers and a few thunderstorms that
will be nearing PIR/MBG this evening. We will continue to
monitor the latest trends and update to add thunderstorms if
needed. Wind gusts will only diminish to 25-35kts overnight
before rising again into the 35-45kt range. The strongest winds
over the period are expected at PIR/MBG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...06