082
FXUS63 KABR 070630
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
130 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and breezy conditions are expected Friday. Afternoon humidity
is forecast to drop between 20 to 30% combining with wind gusts of
25 to 35 mph. This may create elevated fire weather concerns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 125 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

The Northern Plains will continue in northwest flow within this
messy split flow wavy +PNA pattern. The good news is that we will
see a slight shift eastward with the entire pattern through early
next week. The ongoing amplified ridge does flatten a bit
Monday/Tuesday with a wave riding up and along it. Beyond this time
Clusters do vary on exact placement and intensity of the synoptic
features but hint at an overall +PNA pattern with more of a broad
ridge over the western two thirds of the CONUS and broad trough to
the east by the midweek. However, low confidence exists this far
out.

Within this pattern, a weak wave and a broad area of low pressure
will track southeastward out of western Canada and over the Northern
Rockies by 12Z with the center of the low over eastern WY/SD/NE
border by 18Z and continuing its southeastern track into the Central
Plains this evening and tonight. East/northeast of this system high
pressure will be over ~ND and shifting a bit eastward this evening.
The majority of the CAMs continue to indicate the convective precip
tracking northwest to southeast with this system will stay off to
our west and southwest. NAMNest/FV3 are still showing the potential
of some of this precip clipping Stanley/Jones/Lyman Counties towards
the evening. HREF prob of precip>0.01" for these counties is 20% or
less with NBM pops under 10%. So stuck with what the NBM has for now
due to low confidence, but slight pops may need to be added in
closer to time if needed. Otherwise minimal pop chances (15%) are
possible over far northeastern SD/west central MN Friday
evening/Saturday as another embedded wave/weak low out of Canada
will track southeast and over ND/MN (and cold front) with the bulk
of the precip staying farther northeast of the CWA. Additional pops
should stay southwest of the CWA per surface trough Saturday
afternoon/evening. Another clipper could bring additional chances of
moisture (pops 20-35%) mainly east of the James River late
Monday/Tuesday AM. Even with these chances QPF looks to be minimal
to none.

With temperatures finally warming up into the 60s today and 60s to
mid 70s Friday, afternoon relative humidity is expected to tank with
ongoing dry air over the CWA on the backside of this low. Did add
some HRRR into the NBM mix to lower dp`s even though overall they
will increase through Friday into the 30s. With this blend, Min RH
values are forecast to range between 20 to 30% both afternoons,
lowest west of the James River this afternoon and along and west of
the Mo River Friday afternoon. Winds will be marginal this afternoon
with gusts up to 20 mph but that is really only over far
northeastern SD/western MN. Friday could be more a critical fire
weather day as winds will be bit stronger, gusting between 25-30 mph
with stronger gusts to 35 mph by the late morning/midday through the
afternoon. We have been without real measurable rain for about
a week now, so fuels are either still dry or dried out. Low
confidence on fuel status and still a run or two of the model
did not issue any Fire Headline on this shift.

Otherwise, a slight cooldown in temps this weekend with the passing
of a cold front associated with the clipper low on Saturday and high
pressure moving in from Canada Sunday. Overall highs will range in
the upper 50s/60s Saturday and 60s to around 70 Sunday. Highs are
still running about 5-10 degrees below average east of the James
River. With the ridge becoming broader next week temps are forecast
to warm back up into the 70s to potentially the lower to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through this
forecast cycle.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MMM
AVIATION...Vipond