546
FXUS63 KABR 091111 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
611 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Slight Risk for severe weather (level 2 out of 5) for
  today/tonight. Timing of storms is mainly late evening and
  overnight. Main threats are large (1 to 2" diameter) and winds
  in excess of 60 mph.

- Wildfire smoke aloft is expected to persist the next several
  days,  however there is little potential for the smoke at the
  surface.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 603 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

30-40kt low level jet with a weak wave aloft continues to progress
across eastern South Dakota, responsible for storms in north central
South Dakota at midnight. NAM BUFKIT profiles indicate about 3.5k
j/kg CAPE in strong unidirectional flow of 30 to 50kts from about
2km through 8km depth. Thus, expect splitting supercell storms with
a large hail threat.

For today then, surface high pressure to the north will result in a
north breeze with drier air and slightly cooler temperatures.
Mixed winds in BUFKIT are on average about 15 to 20kts with an
east to northeast trajectory.

As the high continues east, low level flow around this feature
becomes enhanced tonight, with 1/2km winds increasing to 25-30kts
across mostly western/central South Dakota. Warm advection at 700mb
as well for the same area. NAM shows a weak wave early this
morning, with a northwest flow shortwave also clipping the
northeast early Monday. There is a little bit of a disconnect
between each of these elements providing for some uncertainty into
the coverage and severity of storms. While not a universal
outcome between CAMS, many are showing storms this evening out
west river weakening before low level jet re-invigoration over
central South Dakota, as well as some storms dropping into the
northeast early Monday morning.

Looks like this pattern, with nocturnal storms, continues into
Monday night/Tuesday morning as well.

In regards to smoke, nothing new or earth shattering, just continued
elevated smoke with again a unfavorable fetch for mixing down or
trapping smoke at the surface.

As for temperatures for the latter half of the work week, while we
are still under a northwest flow regime, there is strengthening of
an eastern CONUS upper trough, allowing for more direct flow from
Canada and thus cooler temperatures, though it should be noted that
the latest NBM has shifted to a less drastic cool down (raised
forecast temperatures about 2-3 degrees) Thursday/Friday/Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 603 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast for all terminals through tonight.
Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are
possible by early this evening throughout and west of the
Missouri River valley of the Dakotas. Would-be storms then drift
off to the southeast. Continuing with PROB30 TS mention in the
KPIR and KMBG TAFS mainly for later tonight. Northeasterly
surface winds through about mid-day before they settle in to
more of an east-southeasterly situation by early this evening.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...10