686
FXUS63 KABR 061914
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
214 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather concerns on Wednesday with continued
  above normal temperatures, dry conditions, and breezy
  northwest winds.

- Above normal temperatures through Saturday, with mostly dry
  conditions. Warmest on Saturday with highs in the 80s to
  around 90 degrees.

- Pattern change to cooler temperatures and increasing chances for
  moisture early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Latest look at 18Z obs show some areas down around 20 percent
humidity scattered about the CWA, although wind gusts are still
below 25 mph for much of the area. Will continue to monitor winds/RH
this afternoon as there may be some areas flirting with red flag
criteria. Due to the marginality of this, still no plans to issue an
RFW for the afternoon.

Weak cold front still on track to move south through the CWA this
evening. Surface high pressure will build in behind the front with
light winds overnight. Pretty decent radiational cooling night
setting up again, although models do show some degree of high
cloudiness overnight. Given the poor track record of NBM low temps
recently, decided to blend in about 50 percent of NBM10 numbers,
then even taking a few more degrees off of that in the James valley.
All that said, this puts lows in the 40s for most areas, but
wouldn`t be surprised if a few upper 30s sneak in once again.

The aforementioned cold front does not usher in much in the way of
cold air, but the air mass is slightly cooler than what`s on top of
us today. Highs still expected to be in the 70s on Wednesday, likely
flirting with 80 for some locations as well. RH values are forecast
to drop to between 25 and 35 percent for much of the CWA, but this
is with straight-up NBM dewpoints. Could see a scenario again where
dewpoints perhaps drop lower than forecast, which may put some areas
closer to 20 percent RH. Wind gusts on Wednesday look to be
approaching 25 mph for parts of the northern CWA at least, so fire
danger and RFW criteria will be something to pay attention to.

Will then be watching the next push of warm air with a passing warm
front on Saturday. 925/850mb temps around +25C with good southerly
mixing winds. Grand Ensemble showing the 850mb temps this Saturday
is as high as the 95th-99th percentile. Inherited NBM highs on
Saturday are generally in the low to mid 80s, with some upper 80s
over the southwest CWA. Would not be surprised if these temps are
still too cool. NBM90th temps are more into the mid 80s to low 90s
over the CWA, which could end up being the reality under the right
mixing conditions with mostly sunny skies.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...TMT