612
FXUS63 KABR 170103 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
803 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain or a rain/snow mix will be possible this evening into
  the overnight with very little in the way of accumulations
  expected for most areas. Portions of north central SD still have
  a 50/50 chance for seeing a quarter of an inch of
  precipitation.

- The cooler than normal pattern will spill over into the
  beginning of the weekend before temperatures gradually warm
  back above normal through the first half of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 802 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Allowed the Red Flag Warning to expire this evening. The cold
front has passed through most locations other than east central
SD and RH is rising behind it as temperatures fall.

UPDATE Issued at 613 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

The cold front now stretches from about Britton southwest to
Miller. Winds have shifted to the north and northwest behind the
front. Winds will remain gusty overnight as the front continues
its push east.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Most of the forecast area is seeing south to southwest winds gusts
between 25-35 mph this afternoon, with a few spots even closer to 40
mph at times. RH values have ranged as low as 15-25 percent for most
locales so far this afternoon. We still have the remainder of the
afternoon for peak heating and drying on the way. Wind speeds will
remain gusty but as a low pressure system continues to work into the
area, winds will slacken some by late afternoon and early evening.
Will be keeping the Red Flag Warning in place though through the
early evening.

For tonight, a cold front associated with that area of low pressure
will move through the area. South to southwest winds will turn west
to northwest this evening before eventually northerly by late
tonight and early Friday. BUFKIT profiles still show a stout
inverted-V structure with a pooling of elevated moisture and
instability aloft. Can`t rule out a few elevated storms across parts
of central SD through the first half of the evening. Most of the
energy and precip associated with this next upper wave set to enter
the region tonight and Friday will be post frontal light rain
initially. As a colder air mass begins to infiltrate the area
overnight, a rain/snow mix or perhaps a little sleet will be
possible. Any accumulations will be quite minor and mainly occur on
grassy areas during the overnight hours across the northern tier of
counties in SD. Moisture remains rather limited for most of the CWA,
with the exception of north central SD. Grand Ensemble probs for
greater than a quarter of an inch still range between 40-70 percent
north and west of the Mobridge area. Guidance still remains locked
in on an area of low stratus to overtake most of the area late
tonight and persist into the morning hours. Improvements are
expected by midday and afternoon but cloud cover looks to remain
prevalent through the day.

Cold air advection setting in tonight in early Friday will lead to a
much colder day on Friday. Daytime temperatures are expected to
struggle, especially if cloud cover remains thick. Readings will be
a good 40-50 degrees colder on Friday compared to the 70s and 80s
the area has seen today. This cooler than normal temperature pattern
will persist into at least the first half of the weekend with
daytime highs Saturday in the 40s to low 50s and a healthy northwest
breeze. However, some sunshine is expected so this should help
mitigate the chilly conditions.

Northwest flow aloft will continue through the latter half of the
weekend into early next week. Another upper trough is progged to
crash onto the west coast by the middle of next week leading to
upper ridging locally. This will help to maintain dry conditions and
mild temperatures. We anticipate temperature readings through the
latter portion of the 7 day forecast will go back above normal.
However, where will readings actually end up is the big question.
NBM`s 25th-75th percentile range for high temperatures continue to
maintain a difference of about 8-15 degrees Tuesday through Thursday
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 613 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will deteriorate to MVFR as showers move in behind
the cold front. Cigs will improve again from west to east Friday
morning through early afternoon.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...20
DISCUSSION...Vipond
AVIATION...20