626
FXUS63 KABR 292347 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
647 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog may develop overnight tonight into early Friday
  morning. The main areas of concern will be over parts of north
  central South Dakota and the eastern side of the Sisseton
  Hills. Visibility may drop to a mile or less at times.

- Rain showers move over the forecast area Friday evening into
  Saturday morning. There is a 10 to 40 percent chance to see a
  tenth of an inch of rain through that time frame.

- More widespread, heavier rainfall is expected Sunday night
  through Tuesday as a low pressure center moves into the Plains.
  While there is low confidence in timing and amounts at this
  time, the chance to see an inch of rain ranges from 30 to 60
  percent, with the highest over south central South Dakota.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 638 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Light rain showers continue to traverse across north central and
into northeastern South Dakota this afternoon. A layer of dry air in
the lower levels means that rain has struggles to reach the surface
at times, but the strongest showers have dropped a trace to a couple
hundredths of rain in their wake. Expectations for the next couple
of hours is that these virga to occasional light showers will
continue to struggle to get rain to the surface as they push north
and east this afternoon.

Overnight tonight, there are some signals for another round of fog
development. Confidence is highest over parts of north central South
Dakota where full humidity recovery is expected for an extended
period tonight. Weak easterly flow will also help due to gradual
terrain increases providing a bit of an upslope effect in that area.
Coverage of fog is expected to be fairly patchy, but there is some
signal for visibility to drop below a mile at times. The other
potential area of concern would be localized areas on the eastern
edge of the Prairie Coteau, where upslope impacts once again assist
in fog formation. Confidence is perhaps a bit lower in that area,
but visibility may still drop to a mile at times.

The next round of precipitation will move into the area Friday into
Saturday. Showers will move up into central South Dakota during the
late afternoon to evening hours before spreading to the entire
forecast area overnight and exiting to the east Saturday morning. In
general rain rates with these showers will be light, and most areas
will see just a few hundredths. Latest probabilities to see a tenth
of an inch range from 10-40 percent, increasing as you move from
north to south across the forecast area. Can`t entirely rule out a
weak thunderstorm out of this system, but a mid-level inversion
around 750mb will likely limit the growth of these showers.

A Colorado Low will track into the region early next week, bringing
another round of precipitation into the area. Overnight lows in the
upper 30s to 40s support this precipitation being all rain with this
system. Current expectations are that precipitation will move in
Monday morning over central South Dakota, spreading across the rest
of the forecast area the rest of Monday and into Tuesday. The bulk
of the rain is expected through Tuesday morning, and the chances to
see an inch of rain or more through that time period ranges from 30
to 60 percent, increasing moving from northwest to southeast across
the forecast area. There is still a high degree of spread still
based on uncertainty in the timing and track of the low. Notably,
the Euro ensemble tracks the low pressure center just a bit further
north than other ensembles do, which would result in the Aberdeen
forecast area trending towards higher rainfall totals through the
event.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 638 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF valid period, except
at KMBG. During the overnight, fog could develop across portions
of central and north central South Dakota. Guidance has KMBG
falling into IFR visbies in fog. The only other potential
concern being wind gusts up to 25 knots over central and north
central South Dakota. Fog could develop in upslope flow along
the eastern side of the Prairie Coteau tonight, as well, but at
this time, it is not forecast to impact KATY. Will continue to
monitor though.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...10