918
FXUS63 KABR 161734
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1234 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a Marginal Risk, level 1 out of 5, for severe storms for
portions of central South Dakota this evening and tonight and a
Marginal Risk again late Monday afternoon through Monday night along
and east of a line from Wheaton, MN to Hayes, SD. Main threats
include 1 inch diameter hail and wind gusts of 60 mph. Brief heavy
rainfall is also possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Sfc high pressure slides to the southeast tonight. That will allow
weak sfc low pressure to move into central SD. Forcing is pretty
weak, but there is a marginal risk for severe storms this evening
west river. With no marked llj, there`s really only a shortwave
moving through to get anything going. Could see something develop
farther west and maintain itself into Jones/Stanley.

By Monday afternoon, the weak sfc low slides into eastern SD. The
marginal risk shifts with it, stretching from Wheaton, MN to Hayes,
SD and including points south. Interestingly, ConsShort/ECAM are
picking up on a few potential storms in the wind gust grids east of
the James Valley around 22z. Looks like a couple of bulls-eyes of 35
kts. Left them in as the timing seems plausible even if the actual
location may be off a bit. Shortwave activity does pick up between
21z and 0z and may add enough energy to kick off some storms along
with increasing shear. The active pattern extends into Wednesday,
though any severe threat will remain south of I-90 on Tuesday.

What looks to be a dry and windy cold front moves through on Friday
with high pressure building in behind it for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through Monday morning.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20