390
FXUS63 KABR 010621
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
121 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-There is a Marginal Risk (1 of 5) for severe weather into the
morning across portions of south central and northeast South Dakota
and west central Minnesota. Main hazards are hail of 1 to 2 inches
in diameter and wind gusts of 60 mph. There could be additional
isolated storms and showers that develop during the afternoon and
evening.

-There is a Slight Risk (2 of 5) for severe weather Thursday
afternoon through Thursday night over much of the region. Main
hazards are 1 to 2 inches in diameter hail and wind gusts 60-75 mph.
Additionally, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

- Western U.S. and Canadian wildfire smoke (aloft) will be over the
region today and potentially longer depending on how steering flow
winds evolves. While most of the smoke should stay aloft, some minor
concentrations of near surface smoke could happen this
afternoon/evening.

- Near to above normal temperatures are expected throughout the
seven day forecast, with the warmest readings, possibly as much as
10 degrees above normal, running up into the low 90s between
Thursday and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 120 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

A warm front over southern SD will be pushing north through the
night into the morning. As this front moves north, it will cause
storms to develop in a more favorable environment to the southwest,
and unidirectional shear profile will provide some shear and
steering flow to help the storms move into south central and
northeastern SD. High-res models have these storms arriving between
2 and 4 am CDT then moving northeast through the remaining overnight
hours into this morning. There is a marginal risk for these storms
to be severe, with the main hazards of hail up to 1 inch and wind
gusts of 60mph. These storms are then forecast to move east of
northeastern SD by mid-morning. While there will be some limited
moisture and instability over central and northeastern SD, some
isolated storms and showers could develop during the afternoon into
the evening over central and northeastern SD and west central MN.
These storms could also have hail of 1 inch and 60 mph wind gusts in
them.

As upper-level flow continues to be mainly from the southwest for a
couple more days, wildfire smoke from fires in the southwest will
continue to move in over SD. This smoke is forecast to come in
behind the morning storms and mainly stay aloft, though if there are
some taller storms that develop during the afternoon/evening, they
could bring some of that smoke to the surface for a bit. This smoke
will continue to move in over central and northeastern SD for a
least a few more days. In addition to the smoke, once the warm front
moves in, the flow will help move some warmer temperatures in
through remainder of the work week. Thursday will be the warmest
with temperatures 5-10 degrees warmer than normal, otherwise the
weekend will have temperatures around normal. Highs Thursday will be
in the upper 80s into the 90s and the weekend will be 80s. Heat
index values will stay near the high temperatures through the
weekend because of lower humidity values during the day.

There will be multiple shortwaves & surface troughs moving over SD
in the coming days, which will likely cause storms to develop in the
warm, moist, and unstable afternoon/evening environment over SD.
Thursday afternoon there will likely be storms that develop to the
north and west of central and northeastern SD and then move in
through the late afternoon into the overnight hours. There is a
slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms on Thursday. Models are
starting to hint that the storms will likely start as supercells
when they develop, with all hazards possible (hail up to 2 inches,
winds of 60-70 mph, and a tornado or two). Then as the storms start
to interact with the low level jet during the evening, they will
start to have more of a threat for strong wind gusts. Another
shortwave/frontal boundary will move through Friday evening into
Saturday morning and another one Saturday afternoon into the
evening, which could cause more scattered showers and storms to
develop during those times. The details on this are still a bit
murky, and will become clearer as we get closer.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 120 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions for all terminals outside of thunderstorm activity.
there is a low chance for storms early in the TAF period for KPIR.
Better chances for KABR later in the TAF period, and quite probable
for KATY early this morning. There is a low potential for another
round later this afternoon at KATY as well. Winds for the most part
light/variable.&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...07