629
FXUS63 KABR 221725
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1225 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Spotty rain showers (30-55%) return this evening through Wednesday
morning across central South Dakota. Additional rain (60-90%) is
expected Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. Chance of
rainfall of a quarter inch or more is 40-80% mainly east of the
James River through western MN.

- Occasional rain chances continue for the end of the week with the
best chances (40-65%) occurring Friday through Saturday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Southeast sfc flow and shortwave energy aloft continue to stream
low to mid level moisture into the region. This is resulting in some
drizzle under the lower clouds. Other than increasing winds along
and west of the Missouri this afternoon, there`s nothing that will
really change this pattern today. Tonight, a llj develops and
heights aloft begin to rise. Gusty winds spread farther east on
Wednesday, and the moisture gets a bump with the llj increasing to
40 kts. Showers and embedded weak thunderstorms will develop with
the llj, enhanced on Wednesday and pushing east with a shortwave
trough and weak low pressure along the Rockies. Wednesday into
Wednesday night will see the most widespread light rainfall of the
week. Generally, however, highest amounts of a quarter to half an
inch will be confined to areas east of the James Valley.

A drier air mass pushes in behind this system, and by Thursday
afternoon areas west of the James Valley may see some clearing.
Ridging aloft will help push temps up into the 70s with any
sunshine. On Friday, though, another shortwave trough moves north
through South Dakota and light rain and clouds return.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

MVFR/IFR cigs will prevail with occasional breaks of VFR
tonight.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20