039
FXUS63 KABR 262338
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
638 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog of 3 to 5 miles over northeastern SD/west central
  MN today to expand to south central SD tonight into Sunday
  morning with visibility down to 1 miles or less.

- Rain late Sunday night into Monday over portions of central SD will
  expand to northeastern SD Monday night. This area will exit
  across northeastern SD/west central MN late Monday night and
  slowly end west to east during the day Tuesday.

- There is a 50-80% chance of 0.75" or more rain over north
  central SD, mainly north and west of a line from Redfield to
  Britton.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Updated the forecast by increasing the areal coverage of fog
later tonight into Sunday morning. Some model guidance is
suggesting visibility below one half mile at times for a large
section of the CWA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 138 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

The pressure gradient will continue to weaken through tonight as the
surface low over western SD/NE and associated through over western
SD moves east across our forecast area. This will set the stage for
another night of fog. Patchy fog over northeastern South Dakota and
west central Minnesota will expand to south central SD tonight into
Sunday morning, with visibility down to 2 miles or less. The trough
will be across southeastern SD into west central MN at 12Z, with a
cold front stretching from a deep low over central Canada through
northwestern MN and bisecting SD northeast to southwest.

The main impact to this cold front sinking to our south during the
day Sunday will be the exit of some of the thicker low level
moisture. There is low confidence in peaks of sunshine that many
people haven`t been seen in around a week across northeastern SD and
west central MN. We`ll see where a band of thicker clouds remains
Sunday (over central or eastern SD).

Taking a look 500mb flow, steady flow out of the southwest will
dominate our weather pattern late Sunday through at least Tuesday of
next week. This will help to bring rain to central SD Sunday night
into Monday that will move across northeastern Monday night before
exiting east during the day Tuesday. A few rumbles of thunder will
accompany these showers. The WPC excessive rainfall outlook for this
period is in the marginal range, with a 50-80% chance of 0.75" or
more rain over north central SD, mainly north and west of a line
from Redfield to Britton.

Dry weather will return Tuesday through the rest of the forecast
period. While high temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 60s
to mid 70s through Wednesday, they will drop mainly into the 60s
Thursday through Saturday. Lows should remain in the 50s through
Thursday morning, with 40s Friday and Saturday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Pockets of VFR conditions can be expected at KMBG and KPIR
through this evening, before widespread low cigs and patchy fog
develops later tonight into the morning hours on Sunday. Both
terminals may see clearing during the mid morning hours. KABR
and KATY will likely see IFR conditions with both low cigs and
visibility later this evening and into the morning hours on
Sunday. KATY may see IFR conditions the longest.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...17
DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...17