953
FXUS63 KABR 230609
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
109 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Most of the forecast area remains dry the next several days with
  the exception of south central South Dakota where a 30-60 percent
  chance for showers and/or a thunderstorm or two will be possible
  on Thursday.

- A relatively cooler air mass remains in place through Thursday
  with near normal temperatures expected. Hot and mostly dry
  conditions will return starting Friday and persisting into early
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 106 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

As of 1 AM CDT, temperatures around the area are in the low 60s with
winds out of the southeast around 10 mph. There is once again a
chance of showers across south central SD today. The chance of
accumulations higher than 0.10" is around 45 to 75% along and south
of I-90. There could be a weak thunderstorms or two mixed in but
severe storms are not expected. HRRR Smoke is still showing a
moderate concentration of smoke over our area today and Friday. This
is mainly aloft but there could be some at the surface and
could cause some slight decreases to visibility. The majority of
models are showing a layer of incredibly low stratus across
most of the forecast area later this evening through Friday
morning. Some short term models are also showing much higher
ceilings, including some that have switched camps from run to
run, so, confidence is low on how low clouds will get.

SPC has highlighted northern SD in a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of
5) for severe storms Friday afternoon across northern SD.
Confidence is low that these storms will actually form. There
are some CAMs that show storms over north central SD and some
that show storms over northeast SD. Either way, current
precipitation chances are 30% or less. Heat returns Friday over
central SD and then Saturday and Sunday for the entire forecast
area. Highs may be a little high over northeastern SD where
humidity is higher but should be fairly ok over central SD.
Current forecast over central SD is in the mid 100s. This may
necessitate a heat advisory. Keep an eye on the forecast for any
updates concerning this. Highs over northeast SD and west
central MN might be closer to the low 90s than the currently
forecast mid 90s. Temperatures moderate a bit for next work
week. During this heat wave, precipitation chances are very
limited. We are, however, seeing a signal for some possible
precip mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the afternoon.
Models differ beyond 21z at KPIR with some bringing in MVFR/IFR
cigs. No upstream obs have stratus that low at the moment so
opted for the more optimistic scenario. May need to add a Prob30
group with the 12z issuance if the NAM family continues to hold
in the lower cigs.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...20