851
FXUS63 KABR 042344
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
544 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures Thursday and Friday will be near to as much as 7
  or 8 degrees below normal for early November.

- Temperatures Saturday through next Wednesday will warm up to 5
  to 15 degrees above normal for early November.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 523 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Still not 100% confident on the fog potential as while we do
clear, we`re on the east side of an inverted ridge extending
down out of North Dakota, and the low to the east, meaning while
the gradient is weakening, it doesn`t relax completely for
proper decoupling. Still contending with widespread high clouds
as well.

Upstream we are seeing some lower ceilings in eastern Manitoba
on a trajectory into Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas. Still
have a wind trajectory in the lowest 1/2km at 340-360 degrees
so uncertain how far west this will project, however CAMS are
bringing it as far west as the Missouri valley. Something to
watch as it does`t get into till the early morning hours.

See below for an update to the aviation discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

At 1 PM CST, skies are becoming partly sunny across central South
Dakota, but remain cloudy/overcast across northeast South Dakota
into west central Minnesota. TROWAL-forced rain bands continue to
persist and rotate south through the region, mainly centered down
the I-29 corridor and Prairie Coteau, on the backside of the
large/broad occluded upper low churning over Minnesota. Winds are
out of the northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph and
temperatures were mainly in the 40s to low 50s.

After this last rainband over the eastern/southeastern forecast
zones departs the CWA, the forecast is dry for the entire 7-day
forecast. Upper level ridging dominates the steering flow winds
aloft for the majority of the forecast period. Surface high pressure
builds over region tonight, resulting in some fog potential,
particularly over portions of the CWA that clear off tonight. Short
term guidance is developing another area of low clouds over southern
Canada and North Dakota/northern Minnesota tonight and bringing it
southward into the CWA mainly between 08Z and 15Z Thursday. Unsure
what will happen to any areas of fog (probably dissipate) trying to
develop, if/once low clouds spread over it late tonight/early
Thursday morning.

Temperatures will remain near normal through Friday. But the low
level thermal advection pattern is forecast to transition to a WAA
pattern Friday afternoon/evening which persists through the weekend.
Warmer (above normal) temperatures then look to hold through the
middle of next week. Wind speeds and afternoon relative humidity
values appear to behave themselves on the fire weather forecast side
of things, as well, for the time being. Not a whole lot to right
home about just now in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 523 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

MVFR CIGS at KATY for the next few hours, with fog potential,
followed by a return of some lower CIGs during the morning
hours. For KMBG/KPIR may be some fog as well tonight but
confidence is low. We could see some lower CIGS move into
KABR/KMBG/KPIR later in the morning as well.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...07