237
FXUS63 KABR 050043 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
743 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will run around 15 to
  20 degrees below normal ranging in the mid 40s to the mid
  50s. Early morning lows Tuesday through Thursday will drop
  into the upper 20s to the lower 30s (10 to 15 degrees below
  normal).

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 742 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Winds are diminishing. Surface high pressure is nosing into the
region. No changes planned to the tonight period forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 619 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 129 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

An upper trough continues to dig into the northern Plains and Great
Lakes regions through Wednesday. At the surface this translates to
temperatures 15 to 20 degrees below normal for early May with lows
in the 20s and highs in the 40s to lower 50s.

Northwest winds are gusting 35 to 40 mph this afternoon in the caa,
enhanced by dry air and steep lapse rates in the low levels as
evidenced by inverted V soundings. Precip on radar may result in a
sprinkle at best, but more likely virga showers until sunset. Any
elevated shower could mix down a stronger wind gust to around 50 mph
if the shower collapses. Winds are expected to diminish after sunset
as well before increasing again on Tuesday with gusts of 25 to 30
mph.

The dry and cool conditions persist into Thursday when waa pushes
850 mb temps back above +8C. Temperatures will likely be moderated
somewhat, though, by northwest flow aloft and clouds in weak low
pressure at the sfc. Expect to be closer to climo normal values by
Friday when upper ridging tries to build in.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 619 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail over the next 24 hours.
Northwest winds will diminish after sunset. However, they will
increase again Tuesday morning with gusts up to 20-25kts.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...10