800
FXUS63 KABR 122323 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
623 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms over mainly
  east central SD late this afternoon into this evening. Small
  hail will be the main concern with any stronger storms.

- Slightly below normal high temperatures are expected Saturday
  through much of next week, averaging 5-10 degrees below normal
  for this time of year.

- Winds Saturday will gust 30 and 40 mph, highest west of the
  James River. There is a 50% chance of wind gusts greater than
  45 mph Wednesday west of the Missouri River.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 615 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

The current surface weather map shows low pressure over
Ontario/Hudson Bay with a secondary low over over CO with a trough
extending between the two. An additional low will develop over south
central SD, which will slide over across east central SD into MN
this evening, assisting in the increased cloud cover and
showers and weak thunderstorm activity. The strongest storms
will be capable of producing small hail. The cold front will
shift east of our forecast area by 09Z Saturday as high pressure
over southwestern Canada begins to move into the Northern
Plains. A tight pressure gradient ahead of the area of high
pressure and mixing to around 750mb in the afternoon will
support winds gusting 25-35kts.

The pressure gradient, and surface winds, will be a bit more relaxed
Sunday as the surface high gets a little closer as it moves across
MT. Temperatures behind the cold front Saturday afternoon will be in
the upper 60s to low 70s. The surface high will shift across WY
Sunday with the large ridge remaining in place over the Northern and
Central Plains, and across OK Monday. We`ll experience slowly
increasing high temperatures through Monday, topping out in the 70s
Monday afternoon.

The persistent surface low over southeastern Canada will rotate a
trough across ND Monday morning that will sink across our forecast
area during the daytime hours. The main impact will be increasing
clouds (both daytime cumulus and upper level clouds). There is also
a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms over northeastern SD/west
central MN late Monday afternoon into Monday evening as the surface
feature is supported by an embedded shortwave in the otherwise
northwesterly flow at 500mb.

Our next chance of widespread precipitation (30-60% chance of
precipitation) looks to hold off until Wednesday as a system moves
in from the northwest - with low pressure crossing the Dakotas. It
will be accompanied by another round of gusty winds. There is a 20%
chance of wind gusts over 45 mph across and west of the Prairie
Coteau, and a 50% chance mainly west of the Missouri River
Wednesday afternoon. High pressure will then build in Thursday
before quickly exiting to our southeast.

High temperatures this time of year are normally around 80 degrees.
Most days, excluding next Friday, will be slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 615 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period.
An isolated showers/weak thunderstorm will be working over KATY
airspace when the period opens. But by 01Z, KATY should be
rain-free. Winds will increase out of the northwest during the
day Saturday, with gusts of 22-30kts ahead of high pressure
building in from Canada and MT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...10