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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD
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000 FXUS63 KABR 131601 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1101 AM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 1055 AM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021 Overall the forecast is doing fine. Did make some changes to temperatures, dropped them just a bit based of latest guidance. Winds have been pegging advisory criteria in a few spots over mainly the south central part of the state, but with nearly neutral to slight WAA, will forego a headline for now, but keep an eye on the situation. Low level lapse rates will be quite steep this afternoon, lending to continued gustiness. UPDATE Issued at 648 AM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021 12z aviation discussion updated below. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Afternoon) Issued at 408 AM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021 Weather conditions across this forecast area today will continue to be influenced by a nearly vertically stacked low pressure system through the low to mid-levels located off to our northeast. Counter- clockwise flow around this fairly sizable system will deliver gusty northwest winds, chilly temperatures and pcpn chances through today and into tonight. Early this morning, a sfc trough extends from the low in northeast MN southwestward across northwest MN & southeast ND and into northern sections of SD, mainly across our northern forecast zones. Occasional light snow showers have been observed through the early morning from Mobridge to Aberdeen to Ortonville and points north. A perusal of webcams in these areas shows some snowfall but little in the way of noticeable accumulation outside of perhaps on some grassy areas. Think this trend should hold for the most part through the day today. We will continue to see chances for light snow showers, perhaps mixed with rain showers at times from north-central SD eastward into northeast SD and west-central MN. Some light accumulation will be possible across the higher terrain of northeast SD. Otherwise, not anticipating any noteworthy impacts from this bout of wintry weather. Temps will struggle underneath cloudy skies as northerly fetches continue to pull in cold air from the north. Winds will be a factor again today, but not quite as strong as we saw on Monday. Opted to remain headline free for now in the wind category as it looks marginal for most areas. Our western zones would stand the best opportunity to see the strongest gusts this afternoon. Slowly improving conditions are then expected to take place from west to east through the remainder of the period as the aforementioned low pressure system slowly wobbles eastward and weakens its grip on our area. Will continue to see some smaller chances for precip hang on in our east into this evening before coming to an end. Clouds should be tough to scour out however. Overnight lows tonight maybe held up from bottoming out thanks to the cloud cover. We should begin to see a slow moderation in daytime temperatures on Wednesday with highs getting back into the 40s. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Monday) Issued at 408 AM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021 The models continue to show a large upper level closed low pressure area over the western U.S. to begin the long term on Wednesday night along with a short wave trough in Canada heading south towards our region. The western U.S. upper low pressure area will then make its way slowly east into Thursday night and open up and weaken. Some energy from this trough may still sneak some light rain/light snow into our western cwa Thursday afternoon into Friday morning with only light amounts of qpf shown. Otherwise, the Canadian upper low pressure area/trough will make its way straight south across our region Friday through Saturday. This system looks to be dry as it moves through. The models do show another upper level trough and surface cold front dropping into the region from Canada Sunday night and Monday with only small chances of precipitation with it at this time. Otherwise, with continued cool prevailing northwest to northeast surface winds through the entire long term, highs will be mostly from 5 to 15 degrees below normal. Highs will be mostly in the 40s and 50s through the period with maybe some lower 60s west river on Sunday. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning) Issued at 648 AM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Low VFR/MVFR stratus clouds will continue to wraparound a large upper level low pressure area through tonight. Along with the clouds will be light rain and snow showers which will mainly affect ABR and ATY. Breezy northwest winds will also continue into tonight. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...TDK SHORT TERM...Vipond LONG TERM...Mohr AVIATION...Mohr
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