522
FXUS63 KABR 202000
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
300 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty northwest winds and low relative humidity values will
  persist into this evening across north central SD. A Red Flag
  Warning remains in effect for those areas through mid evening.

- Mainly dry conditions are expected for the next several days with
  occasional opportunities for rain, mainly across central SD during
  the midweek time frame.

- A dry and cooler air mass is expected Tuesday through Thursday
  with near normal temperatures. However, hot and dry conditions are
  expected to return late in the week through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

A cold front continues to drift southeastward across southern South
Dakota early this afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm activity
continued to accompany this front through midday with most of it now
south of I-90 and exiting out far southern areas. In the front`s
wake, northwest winds and turned gusty this afternoon. Some drier
air has tried to advance east out of central SD but dew point
temperatures across northeast SD and west central MN remain in the
low mid 60s F. Locales where elevated fire weather concerns lie this
afternoon have seen northwest wind gusts between 20-30 mph and RH
values fall into the upper teens to low 20s percent range. These
conditions are likely to persist into this evening maintaining the
fire danger threat before temperatures cool and winds gradually
diminish. The Red Flag Warning for north central SD will remain
posted.

Heading into the overnight and Tuesday, sfc high pressure will
gradually nose in from the northwest through the next 24 hours. It
won`t build in quick enough tonight to shut off the winds
completely. An upper trough is progged to brush across are far
northeast overnight and moreso across eastern ND and northern MN.
There will be some shower activity associated with this feature that
should mainly stay confined out of our forecast area so have went
with a dry forecast for now. But, something for the evening shift to
monitor. A cooler and drier air mass will take hold for Tuesday into
Wednesday as the high builds southeast and centers itself across the
Eastern Dakotas and western MN. Some s/w energy will ride the
northwest flow and over the western CONUS ridge into western SD late
Tuesday into Wednesday. This could provide a chance for some shower
and thunderstorms to portions of our south central SD zones. There
is a 20-40 percent chance for seeing at least a tenth of an inch of
moisture but it remains confined from an Eagle Butte to Pierre to
Gann Valley line and points south and west. Outside of those
locales, a dry forecast looks likely to continue. Some more areas
could stand a better shot at moisture on Thursday into early Friday
as another mid level disturbance rolls southeast across the western
and central portions of SD.

By late week and through this weekend, upper ridging is progged to
build back overhead across the Northern Plains. After near normal
temperatures through about Thursday, another wave of above normal
heat is projected to return to the area. Some model thermal progs
indicate 850mb temperatures will climb into the upper 20s C to lower
30s C. This should lead to widespread temperatures in the 90s to low
100s, with the hottest readings across central SD. Unfortunately,
little to no chances for moisture are expected late in the week and
with this potential heat on the way again, that doesn`t bode well
for those areas dealing with ongoing drought conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through this
forecast cycle. Gusty northwest winds will kick in this
afternoon and remain breezy through tonight.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
     SDZ003-004-009-015-016.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Vipond
AVIATION...Vipond