529
FXUS63 KABR 261130 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
530 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild and above average temperatures (40s and 50s) return today
and Friday, falling to below average this weekend.

- Increasing west-northwest winds (25-35 mph gusts) today and
Friday, along with lowering humidity (25-35 percent), will bring
high/very high fire danger to central/south central SD.

- Snow chances (50-70 percent) return Friday night through Saturday
over north central and portions of northeastern SD. Generally, less
than 4 inches expected as probability for 2 inches or greater is 30
to 50% along and near a line from McIntosh to Watertown.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 523 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 12Z TAFS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1257 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

The main concern for today will be elevated fire danger over central
SD, especially south central SD, due to gusty winds and low RH. As
of midnight a warm front was positioned north to south along and a
bit east of the Mo River, associated with an area of low pressure
over northwestern Canada. This front/surface trough will continue to
track east across the CWA early this morning, with winds behind it
continuing to turn west/northwesterly. The axis of the trough will
be along the ND/SD/MN border by 12Z or so associated with a
secondary weaker low over Manitoba. As the main low shifts eastward
across Alberta today and into Saskatchewan this evening, the
pressure gradient will tighten and increasing winds. HREF/NBM
indicates wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph, highest over central SD and
along the eastern slopes of the Coteau midday through the afternoon.
With this being WAA, went with straight NBM for winds and gusts
today.

Warmer temps at 925mb will filter over the CWA from the southwest
today with temps ranging from +3 to +10C by peak heating with
surface highs reaching in the 40s and 50s, warmest across central
SD. With the warmer air, RH values this afternoon will decrease to
around 25 to 40% over central SD. The combo of breezy winds, lower
RH, and ongoing dry fuels, the Grassland Fire Danger Index is High
to Very High across central SD. The lowest RH values (~30% and
lower) will be over south central SD, especially Stanley, Jones, and
Lyman Counties. With RH values above RFW criteria at this time, we
decided against any headlines. Copy and paste again for Friday with
GFDI fire index in the Very High category over central SD. Min RH
values could possibly drop to around 25% or less over southern
Jones and Lyman Counties. So once again will need to be monitored
for any fire weather headlines.

The surface low and will track eastward across Canada Friday (and
its upper wave stretching southward over the Northern Plains). Its
cold front will pass northwest to southeast over the CWA Friday
morning through the afternoon with winds turning northwesterly
behind it and northerly by Friday evening. This will also bring the
return of post frontal snow chances and colder temperatures with
highs for the weekend ranging in the teens to 30s on Saturday and
20s/30s Sunday, coldest over northeastern SD/western MN. Latest run
of models seem to have a better handle on this band of snow,
however, individual models do slightly vary on the exact track and
amounts at this time. For example, EC/NAM is more north and GFS more
south across the CWA with higher snow totals. NBM indicates snow is
forecast to move in over north central SD around ~06Z Saturday and
track quickly east/southeastward across the CWA, exiting the
southeastern CWA by midday Saturday. Latest pops of 40-70% cover all
of north central and most of northeastern SD with the exception of
far south central and far northeastern SD/western MN which generally
have pops of 30% or less being on the outer edge of this band.

NBM has increased QPF/snow totals slightly since the last run with
NBM 24hr probability of snowfall>1" ending 00Z Sunday is 50-70%
across north central through northeastern SD, with the highest
percentage from McIntosh southeastward though Clark. Prob of 2" is
40-60% for this area and 3" runs around 30-50%. However, latest
collab with WPC highlighted the fact that models do show the
potential for better FGEN forcing coinciding with this snow band
within a DGZ depth greater than 100mb over portions of northeastern
SD. With collab, we opted to use WPC guide for snow ratios but left
QPF as NBM as there is not quite enough confidence yet being a few
days out. WPC is quite more bullish on higher QPF/snow totals in
this area because of this which highlights the possibility of 3-5"
along and a near a line from Eureka to Clear Lake. So quite the
difference then what NBM is saying. So as time gets closer and with
more of the CAMs coming in we can narrow down specific QPF/totals.
EFI for snowfall has a value of 0.5 to 0.6 running along the ND/SD
border over north central SD with higher values (and SOT of zero)
over southwestern ND, so really nothing noteworthy. Otherwise, a
warming trend is forecast for next week with overall highs in the
40s and 50s! Just isolated (15-25%) chances of light snow Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 523 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will prevail at all 4 terminals during this TAF
cycle. Winds will remain westerly in the case of KPIR/KMBG or
become westerly at KABR/KATY later in the morning and increase.
These west winds will gust between 20-30 knots today. Stronger
winds off the surface by late in the forecast period will lead to
low level wind shear at KABR/KATY/KMBG terminals.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Vipond
DISCUSSION...MMM
AVIATION...Vipond