625
FXUS63 KABR 242347 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
647 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The next round of rain arrives Friday afternoon into Saturday
  morning. There is a 40-70% chance to see a quarter of an inch
  or more through Saturday morning along and east of the James
  River.

- Active pattern continues with additional chances for rain
  arriving Monday and continuing through Tuesday. There is a
  30-55% chance to see an inch of rain or more across the
  forecast area through that time frame.

- Expect temperatures near normal for the next few days, with
  highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Signs point towards a
  cooldown by mid-week next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 639 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Tonight, moisture from departing rain showers and light winds will
create a prime environment for fog development. While confidence is
highest along the North Dakota/South Dakota border, nearly the
entire forecast area is expected to see some sort of visibility
reduction. Assuming winds stay calm enough, visibility may drop to a
mile or lower at times. Fog that develops is generally expected to
dissipate by mid-morning on Friday.

Focus then shifts to the next round of rain set to move into the
forecast area, which comes starting Friday afternoon and continues
into Saturday. A shortwave aloft will be the driving force behind
this rainfall, bringing rain into the forecast area from south to
north. Mainly light showers are expected, although there may be an
intermittent flash of lightning or two over northeastern South
Dakota and western Minnesota early Saturday morning. Highest
rainfall totals will be along and east of the James River Valley,
where up to a quarter of an inch can be expected, with perhaps up to
half an inch falling under the strongest showers and weak
thunderstorms. Areas to the west will likely only see a few
hundredths at best.

After a dry Sunday, the active pattern will continue early next week
due to an upper-level trough over the western CONUS developing a low
pressure center into the Northern Plains. This system is expected to
bring a bit more rain to the area, and ensemble medians from Monday
morning through Tuesday evening currently sit at a widespread 0.75"-
1" with the latest runs. Ensemble spread does give about half an
inch of wiggle room on either side, so still a bit of uncertainty in
the total amounts. However there is a roughly 30-55% chance to see
more than an inch of rain through Tuesday evening, generally
increasing from west to east. Monday afternoon and evening is the
time frame for which both the heaviest rainfall and best chances for
thunderstorms are. Some of these storms may be severe according to
mid-range probability models. Current probabilities in those models
would be akin to a Marginal Risk, but no outlook is in place at this
time.

As the upper-level trough moves further east, a cooler airmass will
take hold, dropping high temperatures to the mid-60s, about 5-10
degrees below normal for this time of year. Once the early week
system moves out of the forecast area, ensembles are fairly
confident in a dry forecast for the rest of the week, finally
breaking the active pattern for a couple of days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 639 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

The bottom line up front is for flying weather conditions to
deteriorate into some form of IFR by 12Z Friday at all four
terminals. Areas of fog and drizzle are also expected at times.

Right now, clear sky areas (KMBG/KPIR) should end up getting
into some fog/low clouds later tonight (after 06Z). Possibly
some spotty drizzle at times. By the end of the day Friday,
scattered showers should be working up out of Nebraska.

Similar story at KABR/KATY; currently under stratus clouds (VFR
at KABR for the moment), with KATY reporting reduced (IFR)
visibility in fog/drizzle. For, pretty much, the entire TAF
valid period, these two terminals will be socked in with low
clouds and fog/drizzle at times. By or shortly beyond the TAF
valid period (Friday evening), the showers lifting up out of
Nebraska and Iowa should be heading for KABR/KATY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...10