140
FXUS63 KABR 281120 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
520 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Band of snow over northern SD and west central MN through this afternoon.
  Generally 2 to 4 inches expected, with localized amounts closer
  to 5 possible. Winds/low visibility not a big factor with this
  system.

- After a cooldown this weekend, temperatures will warm back up
  to above normal values again next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 248 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Added another row of counties to the southern side of the Winter
Weather Advisory. Webcams are showing some heavier snowfall than
previously anticipated.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 111 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

As of 1 AM CST, temperatures around the region are in the single
digits to mid 20s. Winds are out of the north to northeast at 10
to 15 mph. Snow is currently falling over north central SD and
will continue to move east through the morning hours.

Not too much in the way of a change in the forecast today. We are
still looking at 2 to 4 inches of accumulation across north central
and northeastern SD into west central MN, with some locally higher
amounts possible. The main concern with the snowfall forecast is an
area of dry air just above the surface over northeast SD and how
long it will take for that layer to saturate and snow to reach the
ground. If it takes an hour or two, current snowfall totals should
be ok, but if it ends up taking five or six hours, we could way
underachieve. There is also some instability above that dry layer
which could create bands of locally increased intensity of snowfall,
which would lead to earlier saturation and therefore earlier
snowfall. However, the location of those bands is uncertain. The
HREF is showing some 30% chances for snowfall rates of over an inch
per hour after about 5 AM across portions of north and east SD. This
lasts through the late morning but doesn`t look to last for more
than an hour at any particular location. Model guidance has shifted
south a little, so pulled QPF south a bit to cover that. Added
Codington and Deuel counties to the advisory as well. Fortunately,
winds don`t look to be overly strong so blowing snow is not expected
to be an issue this time around.

Temperatures for the weekend will be below average by about 10-20
degrees before we get a warm up for the work week. Still see some
light precipitation chances showing up. Some rain showers are
possible Monday afternoon, changing over to snow during the evening
and overnight hours over far north and northeast SD. Thursday brings
back snow chances, but accumulations at this point look to be light.
With the warmer temperatures expected this week, grassland fire
danger will continue to be an issue in south central SD where there
is a lack of snow cover and temperatures are warmest.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 518 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

A mix of MVFR and IFR cigs and vsby this morning in snow at all
sites except KPIR. KPIR does have the MVFR cigs, though. Expect
vsby improvement as snow exits this afternoon with cig improvement
by evening.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for
     SDZ006>008-011-018>023.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for
     SDZ003>005-009-010-017.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for MNZ039-
     046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...13
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...20