268
FXUS63 KABR 151141 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
541 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry with temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above normal through
  mid-week.

- South winds gusting up to 30 to 40 mph across mainly central
  and northeast South Dakota today through Tuesday. Locally
  higher gust potential in downslope favored areas east of the
  Sisseton hills.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 538 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

Updated discussion for the 12Z TAFs below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

The main theme for the next few days will be the persistent strong
southerly breeze. For a ceiling on these winds, NBM probabilities of
exceeding 45 mph never get much higher than a few percent, so not
looking at any headlines. That said, with regards to fire weather
concerns... the winds, dry fuels and harvesting means they will be
elevated, though daytime humidity is only ever down to 50 to 70
percent.

Where winds may exceed NBM expectations are in the downslope favored
areas near Ree Heights and the lee of the Sisseton hills. Granted,
1/2km winds only top out around 35-40kts. There is a window where
the RRFS winds increase to 50kts in the critical layer at Peever,
though the inversion depicted in BUFKIT is far less shallow in
comparison to past events. This isn`t until late Tuesday/Wednesday
with a surface low moving across central to northeast South Dakota,
so a bit too far out for higher resolution models to help quantify
the intensity of the potential downslope.

Warm overnight temperatures could be near records thanks to these
persistent winds. 850mb temperatures remain a standard deviation
above climo, which translates into highs well into the 50s. NBM lows
in the upper 30s to mid 40s are close to records, particularly on
the 18th.

In regards to the track/timing of the low, still about the same,
with most of the moisture falling across North Dakota.

We also continue to evaluate a system that follows for
Friday/Saturday timeframe. While still being depicted with some
degree of run to run consistency in the GFS/Canadian, it was
significantly downplayed in the 12Z EC. The latest 00Z EC is closer
to the suite of other deterministic models.  Again too far out for
much details, but the NBM is still depicting a transition to
rain/snow on the backside...though right now with minimal
accumulations.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 538 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. South
to southeast winds between 10 to 20 knots will continue with gusts
up to 30 knots. Low level wind shear may be possible across
portions of north central and northeastern SD, especially at
KABR after 0Z Monday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...17
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...17