540
FXUS63 KABR 190553 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1253 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High temperatures will be 15 to 30 degrees above normal through
  Saturday.

- Expect increased fire weather concerns over central SD through
  Saturday, with winds in the afternoon gusting 20-30 mph.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 06Z TAFS.

UPDATE Issued at 726 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

The temperature forecast has been increased through Saturday. This
trend looks on track, given that temperatures were above our
forecast, especially east of the Prairie Coteau.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

In the near term, with snow rapidly melting, shooting dewpoints into
the mid 30s to low 40s by lunchtime, overnight fog seems like it
would be a slam dunk. We will still have westerly low level flow
which is not a favorable direction for fog usually, however such
high dewpoints already in place and still more moisture (snow) on
the ground evident via satellite, hard to reason against it. CAMS
are also almost universally in support of fog development tonight.

The rest of the forecast concerns center on the warmer temperatures
and fire danger over the next few days. The upper level pattern is
dominated by the upper high/heat ridge out west, with northwest flow
aloft, until around Saturday/Sunday timeframe at which point
deterministic models suggest the ridge is suppressed enough to allow
for a more zonal, westerly flow regime to set up briefly. Embedded
within this flow is a low amplitude shortwave. Once this feature
passes, models diverge on whether the ridge out west re-develops or
is merely transitory with another wave coming into the west coast
for mid-week.

As for temperatures, 850mb temperatures should stay within the
bounds of +4 to +6C across western Minnesota to low teens along the
Missouri valley through Thursday night. There is a brief jump in
temperatures aloft associated with a low that moves across Minnesota
into the Western Lakes region.  Thus a subtle shift from southwest
to northwest low level flow and very weak cold advection, which will
knock 850mb temperatures down about 3C from a peak of about +12C to
+18C from northeast to southwest across the CWA. Thats followed by
another surge in temperatures aloft for Friday night, up to +15 to
+18C (2 standard deviations above climo) by Saturday morning, with a
late day backdoor cold front which will shift the warm air aloft
southwards.

So, in summary, its a steady warmup starting today, with
temperatures 10 degrees above average in the east/western Minnesota,
to up around 30 degrees above normal out west Thursday. Then more
broadly 20 to 30 above normal Friday and Saturday before we cool it
back to normal for Sunday.  After that it appears the pattern is
more supportive of early springlike temperatures as opposed to this
jump straight into summer. It should be important to note there is
an NBM bias with highs running closer to the 10 to 25th percentiles
in general.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Anticipating foggy conditions will become an issue at KABR/KATY
terminals this morning. IFR/LIFR vsbys and MVFR/IFR cigs will be
possible later this morning, during the pre-dawn hours and
persisting until about mid morning. VFR conditions are then
expected to return by late morning. KPIR/KMBG should remain free
of any foggy conditions, so expect VFR conditions will prevail at
these terminals during this forecast cycle.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Vipond
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...Vipond