561
FXUS63 KABR 280541 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1141 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High temperatures through Friday will be 5 to 20 degrees below
average.

- There is a 30-50% chance of light snow over central South Dakota
early Thursday morning into Thursday night, with a 25% chance of 1"
of snow or more west of a line from Miller to Mobridge.

- There is a 40% chance of mainly light snow Saturday through
Saturday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1138 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 06Z TAFS.

UPDATE Issued at 901 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Mid level cloudiness continues to stream in from the northwest
across central SD this evening. These clouds have held
temperatures in check versus farther east where skies remain clear
and readings have quickly fallen to near forecasted low
temperatures. Therefore, lowered overnight lows a few degrees
across northeast SD and west central MN. The clouds across central
SD are expected to drift eastward overnight and may help to
eventually stabilize temperatures in the east. Beyond that, the
remainder of the forecast for tonight is in good shape.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Wednesday will be nearly a repeat of today, but with lighter winds.
Temperatures will fall into the single digits either side of 0 by
daybreak Wednesday.

High temperatures for the rest of the work week will remain below
normal for this time of year by an average of 5 to 20 degrees. The
coldest air will be over northeastern SD and west central MN, which
will be under a surface high through at least Friday. The record
lows of around -20 to -35F look to stay safe, as our coldest morning
is forecast Friday around -3 to -15F.

Behind the area of high pressure, over central South Dakota, more
moisture will be able to sneak in. Clouds will be the main result
through the work week.

Northwesterly flow will dominate our weather aloft through Thursday.
A 500mb trough stretching from NV through eastern OR/WA Wednesday
morning will flatten out as it slides across MT/WY/CO Wednesday
evening and glances our area late Wednesday night into Thursday. The
result is a 30-50% chance of light snow over central South Dakota
early Thursday morning into Thursday night, with a 25% chance of 1"
of snow or more west of a line from Miller to Mobridge.

The 500mb ridge building in to the intermountain west and up through
Alberta/Saskatchewan Friday will result in northerly flow aloft with
the low over southeastern Canada pushing a trough across the Dakotas
and MN Friday. At this point, mainly dry weather is expected Friday
a large reinforcing surface high sinks in from central Canada. 850mb
temperatures will be near -20F during the day Friday over our far
northeastern counties, with surface temperatures topping out in the
single digits above zero over most of our forecast area. The NBM 25-
75th percentile for high temperatures Friday show around 7 degree
spread. In fact, through Friday the spread is around that range or
less, giving increased confidence in our temperature forecast
through Friday.

Warmer air will return Saturday through the rest of the 7-day
forecast as the 500mb ridge to our west slides in. Temperatures will
back to near seasonal normal values. Highs Saturday are forecast to
be in the upper teens and 20s, and low 30s over south central SD.

A stacked 500mb wave to surface low over Saskatchewan
Saturday/Saturday night will move across ND Saturday night/Sunday
and eastern SD/western MN Sunday. There are some timing differences
of near 12 hours, leading to differences in precipitation type and
other details. Still, there is a 40% chance of mainly light snow
Saturday through Saturday night. A wintry mix will be possible as
well over portions of central to northeastern SD, with a 5% chance
of light freezing rain. We`ll continue to monitor the trends and how
much warm air will be able to move in just above the surface to
change precipitation either way.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1138 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will continue to prevail at all terminals through
the end of this TAF cycle.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Vipond
DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...Vipond