143
FXUS63 KABR 270630
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
130 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pop up scattered showers and storms will continue to be possible
into the morning over northeastern SD and west central MN. Chances
increase again during this afternoon into the evening for some more
scattered showers and storms over northeastern SD and west central
MN.

- Today and Thursday will continue to see highs in the upper 80s to
mid 90s (15 to 20 degrees above normal). High temperatures through
the weekend into early next week should continue to top out in the
mid 80s to low 90s.

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorm chances (20-40 percent chances)
during the evening and overnight exist from Friday through Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 129 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Some scattered storms and showers have been popping up through the
night over northeastern SD. There will likely continue to be some
isolated to scattered storms and showers that pulse up and down
through the early morning over areas east of the James River and
into west central MN.

An upper-level ridge has been sitting over the state for a couple of
days, and with nothing coming from the west to push it out, it looks
to continue its stationary ways into the weekend. Because nothing
has been able to interrupt or replace the warm air that has move in,
temperatures will continue to be 15 to 20 degrees warmer than normal
for a couple more days before potentially cooling only a few
degrees. Today and Thursday will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s. A
surface high pressure in Canada is forecast to start moving south
over the Great Lakes Wednesday night through the day Thursday. As
this surface high pressure moves in, it is forecast to push a
frontal boundary through northeast SD and west central MN Wednesday
afternoon through Thursday morning. The warm temperatures will help
to create a little bit of instability during the afternoon over this
area. Along with some moisture and lift from the front, it could
cause some afternoon pop up showers and thunderstorms to form
Wednesday afternoon into the evening. The lack of deep layer shear
will help to keep the storms from becoming severe and long lasting.
However, with some stronger lapse rates over northeastern SD, there
could be some stronger wind gusts that happen in a storm or two.

As an upper-level trough and low continues to sit over the west
coast, a surface trough will be parked over the Rockies. This trough
will continue to help support a low level jet that will sit mainly
over western SD and WY. The lack of moisture over western and
central SD over the next couple of days will most likely inhibit the
development of showers and storms even though the low level jet will
be over the area. While the low level jet will not help precipitation
to form, it will help to get some stronger winds to the surface.
Today though Friday will have winds gust up to 30-35 mph in areas
west of the Missouri River during the afternoon.

Models are showing the upper-level low and trough shifting to the
east and north late Friday into the weekend, which will then cause
the surface trough to start moving east. Through the day Friday into
the weekend, moisture is finally forecast to make its way north in
the lower levels of the atmosphere. This moisture will interact with
the surface trough and will create the chance for showers and storms
to develop Friday evening through the weekend, mainly over areas
west of the James River. The models vary the timing, location, and
intensity of the showers and storms, leading to some lower
confidence. Additionally, over the past few days, these models have
been pushing the precipitation later and later. While there is some
agreement that something might happen Saturday afternoon through the
night, it will need to be watched in following model runs as the
models might continue to push it later as they have recently been
doing.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

An area of -SHRA/-TSRA over KATY to start the TAF period, with
potential for MVFR VSBY in a heavier downpour. In fact, there
are scattered -SHRA/-TSRA across northeast SD, but low
confidence (less than 20% chance) of anything affecting KABR
directly, so will leave out mention at this time and continue to
watch radar trends overnight. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
forecast. There may be redevelopment during the afternoon hours
Wednesday of very isolated -SHRA/-TSRA over northeast SD. Due
to the very isolated nature and low confidence in areal
coverage, will leave mention out of TAFs at this time as it`s
not even worthy of a PROB30 for right now.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...TMT