817
FXUS63 KABR 271121 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
621 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog this morning, dense at times with visibility a
  quarter mile or less.

- Rain with some embedded weak thunderstorms starts late Sunday night
  over central SD and will expand east into northeast SD and
  western MN during the day Monday. This will come to an end
  from west to east through late Tuesday afternoon. There is a
  55-75% chance of 0.5" or more rain along the ND/SD border and
  along and east of US 281.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 503 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Expanded the Dense Fog Advisory farther east this morning based
on latest webcam images. It`s a little patchy, but what is there
is less than a quarter mile.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 102 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

As of 1 AM CDT, we have some fog moving down out of ND into the
northern portion of the CWA. So far there are only some sparse areas
of reduced visibilities, but we will keep an eye on this through the
morning. Temperatures around the region are in the upper 50s to mid
60s with light winds out of the southeast. Today will be dry during
the daylight hours and the first portion of the overnight hours,
with the exception of a slight chance for some showers and weak
thunderstorms over central SD.

Our next chance for rain moves west to east across the region
starting late tonight into early Monday morning and is expected to
last into Tuesday afternoon. Chances for more than a half an inch
have come down slightly, now between 55 and 75% between Monday and
Tuesday afternoons, mainly along the ND/SD border and along and east
of US 281. Chances for higher amounts have decreased rather
significantly, now there just a very small area along the ND/SD
border of 50-60% chance of more than an inch through Tuesday morning
whereas 24 hours ago it was a 55-70% chance over a much larger area.
This seems to be a result of the track of the low moving slightly
north. Throughout this event, there is potential for thunderstorms,
although no severe weather is expected.

The temperature forecast through the period remains relatively
unchanged with highs right around normal and a slight cooldown to
end the work week. Winds Monday afternoon with the incoming low
pressure will gust 25-35 mph west of the Prairie Coteau/Sisseton
Hills, highest in south central SD. This looks to last well into the
evening. Some fog will be possible around I-29 Monday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 619 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

IFR vsby and cigs in fog this morning will improve between 16z
and 20z. Confidence is low in the forecast for tonight with
little model consistency on ceilings. In the latest iteration,
MVFR cigs settle in to central SD and affect KMBG and KPIR
tonight.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning for
     SDZ004>007-009>011-015>019-033>037-045-048-051.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...20
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...20