213
FXUS63 KABR 281848
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
148 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs in the 60s and 70s through Monday are 15 to 30 degrees above
normal for late March.

- Winds diminish from west to east this afternoon becoming light and
variable overnight. Until then, southwest winds will gust 35 to 50
mph with locally higher gusts to 65 mph along the higher elevations
of the Prairie Coteau.

- Blowing dust is expected today with the higher wind gusts,
especially near open fields. Locally reduced visibility is possible.
Suspended dust may cause hazy skies into Sunday morning.

- Very high to extreme Grassland Fire Danger Index for today with
the dry conditions, mild temperatures and strong winds.

- Next system for Monday night/Tuesday expected to be little more
than a frontal passage and an isolated light shower or two.
Widespread moisture unlikely.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 148 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

NSSL-WRF was pretty spot-on in its wind depiction for the east today
with 70 mph peak winds along the Coteau. Hwy 14 south overachieved
with its mixing component as evidenced by most of the obs in Hand
and Lyman county which are still gusting over 50 mph. Still expect
winds to fairly quickly diminish from west to east this afternoon,
especially after 21z when the western expansion of the wind advisory
expires.

Latest 12z model runs of sfc dust continue to show an area of dust
concentrating into parts of south central SD and east central SD
tonight into Sunday. Winds will be fairly light on Sunday, so think
hazy skies are the more likely outcome of what seems to be suspended
dust moving up from the central plains and front range of the
Rockies on the south side of the warm front tonight.

Another low moves into SD/NE on Monday. An upper low moving into
MT/ND concurrently helps to suppress the ridge, but any associated
precip remains north of this cwa. Current track of the sfc low keeps
winds on the lighter side until Monday night/Tue morning when breezy
northerly winds kick up behind the low with the cold front. The
disjointed nature of the strongest winds/warmest temps/driest air
may keep the region out of the worst of the fire weather concerns.
Highs into the 60s and 70s through Monday fall back into the 40s for
Tuesday through Saturday. There are no strong signals for widespread
precipitation over the next week.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through Sunday. Gusty south to
southwest winds will quickly diminish between 21z and 0z.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for SDZ007-008-011-
     019>023.

     Wind Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for SDZ007-008-011-
     019>023.

     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for SDZ017-018-036-
     037-048-051.

     Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for SDZ018-036-037-
     048-051.

MN...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20