157
FXUS63 KABR 042320 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
620 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much above normal temperatures in the 70s to low 80s on
  Monday, with above normal readings persisting through the
  upcoming week. Little to no precipitation expected.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 617 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Surface high pressure over the region this afternoon will shift
eastward into MN/WI by 12Z Monday. This will allow return flow
southeast winds to develop overnight, along with increasing warm air
advection at 850mb. Because of this, lows are not expected to be
quite as chilly as what was seen Sunday morning. Any readings in the
upper 30s are expected to be confined to eastern portions of the CWA
where winds will remain lightest the longest overnight. Lows tonight
did see an influence of colder-end percentiles over eastern areas
after seeing how NBM handled this morning`s lows. Doing this though
did not bring an introduction of frost into the grids anywhere
across the CWA.

Warm air advection continues into Monday with a tightening pressure
gradient and passage of a warm front. South winds will gust from 25
to 35 mph across a good portion of the CWA on Monday as above normal
temperatures in the 70s to low 80s can be expected. Highs on Monday
were nudged more towards NBM90 values given the good mixing, mostly
sunny skies, and warm air advection. Also dropped dewpoints a few
degrees from the inherited NBM, although this move did not produce
RH values low enough to bring overly concerning fire danger.

Lower-level atmospheric winds (925mb) stay in the 30-40kt range
Monday night across the eastern CWA and switch to the southwest.
This will favor a downslope regime across the Coteau region and have
blended in a bit of NBM90 winds in the favored areas.

Cold front drops south through the region on Tuesday, but with not
much cold air behind it as 850mb temps stay around +10C during the
day Wednesday. Overall, temperatures still look to stay above normal
through the upcoming week with highs in the upper 60s and 70s at
least through Saturday, with little to no precipitation expected.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 617 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Good VFR conditions are forecast tonight and tomorrow. Breezy to
windy south-southeasterly winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to
35 knots will develop by morning.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...10