418
FXUS63 KABR 020513 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1113 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain over central SD this evening will become moderate and
expand across northeastern SD and west central MN overnight. The
steady rain will become more scattered/spotty Monday afternoon
before filling back in Monday night. A few rumbles of thunder are
possible.

- There is a 25 to 40% chance of 3" or more rain through Tuesday,
and an 80% chance of 2" or more from south central to northeastern
SD.

- Winds out of the north will gust 45 to 55 mph late Monday
afternoon into Monday evening near and west of the Missouri River,
and linger over portions of south central South Dakota into Tuesday
afternoon.

- A 30-50% chance of light rain will remain over northeastern SD and
west central MN through the day Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 906 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Rainfall is moving northeast into and through the CWA, pretty
much on track with current forecast, so no big changes to PoPs
for the overnight hours. Held onto the trend of keeping warmer-
end guidance for lows tonight as cloud cover keeps a lid on
things. Awaiting new guidance in regards to rainfall amounts
tonight through Monday and if the apparent dry slotting over the
eastern CWA has any effect on forecast totals.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

The 19Z weather map shows 1002mb surface low over WY and northern CO
and 1034mb high pressure across the Mid-Atlantic region. As we
moving into the evening hours we`ll see the low to our southwest
becoming better organized and deepen to 994mb over northeastern CO
by 06Z Monday. Light to steady moderate rain will begin to surge
northeast across the forecast area late this evening and overnight.

Expect less of a cool down tonight, with temperatures remaining in
the 50s. due to plenty of clouds and warmer air pushing in ahead of
the surface low. Winds will also remain slightly mixed, with no
significant temperature inversion setting up overnight. Record or
near record warm low temperatures are forecast tonight, particularly
at ABR where the record is a weak 44 degrees from 1990. Temperatures
will struggle to drop below 55 degrees tonight over much of the area.

A low level 40-55kt jet will set up over our western zones
overnight, central forecast area Monday morning, and over the east
into early Monday afternoon. The low level jet will be under a
stratus deck. Unlike the overnight, there will be less mixing
during the day.

One concern to the steady all-day precipitation will be a dry slot
that is looking more and more likely 12-14Z from around PIR south
and expanding across much of the area south of U.S. Highway 12. Most
of the CAMs keep the precipitation pivoting over Corson County, but
we will see this trends over time. Some convective attributes start
to show up Monday afternoon into the evening hours over portions of
central SD. We remain in the general thunderstorm outlook from SPC
for tonight, with the line shifting mainly east of the Eagle Butte
to Eureka area. So, if any thunderstorms do develop in the dry slot
on on the edge, they will have the potential to produce brief heavy
rain. PW values max out around 1.5 to 1.6in starting over our
southern counties at 06Z Monday and expanding across northeastern SD
and west central MN by 12Z Monday before exiting northeast late
Monday afternoon. These PW values are above normal for this time of
year, and closer to records for the first half of October.

A tight pressure gradient Monday afternoon-evening and pressure
rises will peak over western SD will help promote strong gusty
winds. A Wind Advisory may be needed either late afternoon, if we
end up mixing the stronger winds down, or later Monday evening for
areas near and west of the Missouri River. It still looks like winds
will gust 45-55mph Monday night into early Tuesday, lingering into
Tuesday afternoon over Jones/Lyman Counties.

Total precipitation wise, there is now a larger range in the 25th-
75th percentiles, showing the at the spread is becoming larger and
therefore confidence in any specific number is decreasing. Much of
this is due to the differences in the main camps with the GEFS
solutions being farther west, GEPS farther east, and EC Ensembles
being somewhere in the middle. The differences in the operational
GFS/Canadian/EC are large enough to highlight this lower confidence,
especially where a dry slot may set up. While the steady rain ends
Tuesday, we still have chances of rain lingering into Wednesday
evening over portions of northeastern SD/west central MN. Dry
weather is then forecast through next Sunday.

After highs in the 60s today and Monday, highs will top out in the
40s through the rest of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1113 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

RA will continue to advance northeast across the region tonight and
increase in coverage and intensity, with VSBY down to MVFR/IFR in RA
and BR. It appears there may be a break in the precipitation Monday
afternoon and inserted PROB30 into the TAFs (not KMBG) where/when it
appeared most appropriate. CIGs are gradually lowering across the
region as well and expect most areas to be IFR later tonight through
Monday. Low-level wind shear conditions appear marginal at KATY
Monday morning, so no inclusion in TAF currently, but will continue
to monitor.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...20