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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD
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721 FXUS63 KABR 100545 AAC AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1245 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is an Enhanced Risk (Level 3/5) for severe storms for all of central and northeastern SD into west central MN through tonight. Main threats include wind gusts of 75+ mph, large hail (2+ inches in diameter) and tornadoes (EF2+ possible). - There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for isolated severe storms Wednesday afternoon and evening along and east of a line from Britton to Brookings. Hail, one inch in diameter, and 60 mph gusts are the main threats, although the strongest convection is most likely to occur east of the Aberdeen forecast area. - Cooler temperatures arrive for the rest of the week and into the weekend. Highs beginning Thursday will be in the mid 70s, near- normal to just below normal for this time of year. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1235 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026 The aviation discussion has been updated for the 06Z TAFS. UPDATE Issued at 915 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026 Discreted cells, originally, have lined out along a strong cold front pushing through the Missouri River valley. Expecting a few more strong updrafts capable of large hail, especially if there are anymore cell mergers like what just happened in the Pierre/Ft Pierre, and damaging winds. A brief isolated tornado is also possible. Over the next 3-6 hours, this line of storms is expected to move into an environment supportive of strong straight line winds with embedded meso-vortices (brief tornados) over northeast South Dakota and west central Minnesota. Additionally, there is the potential for convection moving into south central and southeast South Dakota to make it as far north as the U.S. Highway 212 corridor (Watertown area over toward Milbank and Ortonville) later tonight after 05Z, merging with ongoing storms over this CWA. Tornado Watch 294 continues across the forecast area west of Brown/Spink Counties until 05Z. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 298 is now in effect for Brown/Spink Counties until 09Z Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 212 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026 The main forecast highlight today continues to be the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms developing this afternoon and continuing through this evening and overnight. A negatively tilted trough over the western CONUS develops a low pressure center over North Dakota/southern Canada, leading to a cold front moving across the region this evening, ahead of which storms are expected to develop today. As for storm mode and timing, current expectations are that individual cells will form over western/central South Dakota before coalescing into a line as the storms pass the Missouri River and continue east. With the initial development and assuming storms remain discrete as they enter the Aberdeen CWA, hail will be a favorable threat. Strong CAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg will be in place with the initial development, and LCL-EL shear of 45+ knots and mid-level lapse rates between 7-8 C/km will also support hail development, potentially upwards of 2" at times. As storms progress east and morph into a QLCS, the primary threat will shift to wind. DCAPE values well over 1000 J/kg will be in place, low-level lapse rates near the dry adiabatic lapse rate will also offer easy access for gusts to mix to the surface. 0-6km mean wind and EBWD both around 30-35 knots further support the wind threat as well. With such a strong environment for severe winds, we may see widespread significant wind gusts (75+ mph) through the evening and into the early overnight period. As for the tornado threat, there appear to be a couple of things working against the potential at this point, but can`t quite rule things out. Currently, the best chances appear to be as the storms coalesce into a line just east of the Missouri River. Hi-res model guidance is pointing towards the idea that achieving 0-3km shear will be somewhat difficult. LCLs out ahead of the front will also be fairly high (>1000m) until around sunset, although there is a bit more of a disagreement withing the models on this specific point. All this to say that generally speaking, variables don`t seem to quite line up well for the tornado threat, with the exception of the Campbell/Walworth/McPherson/Edmunds County area. In that spot, shear increases along the front, LCLs come down below 1000m, and low-level helicity of 200-300 m2/s2 will be present. Therefore, wouldn`t be surprised to see a spinup in that area in particular. The other possible tornado scenario (albeit one that seems fairly unlikely) is for a discrete supercell to develop out ahead of the front and main line of convection this evening over northeastern South Dakota, where if timed correctly (around 01-02Z) may be able to tap in to some low-level shear. However, guidance gives very low confidence in storms developing out ahead of the front, so there is limited concern for this scenario at this time. The Storm Prediction Center also has a Marginal Risk for severe weather in place for far northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota for possible development Wednesday afternoon. At this point there is still quite a degree of variability in location and timing within the CAMs for Wednesday afternoon, but the one consistent point seems to be that the strongest storms will develop to the east of the Aberdeen forecast area, so limited concern for severe development tomorrow. Upper-level trough is expected to progress eastward through the end of the week this week. The most prominent impact here will be height falls across the region, leading to near-normal to slightly below normal temperatures beginning Thursday. The replacement of the mT airmass with a cP airmass will also push dew points in the 60s today to the upper 40s by Thursday (roughly between the 25th and 50th percentiles for this time of year). By next week model guidance begins to diverge a bit on how the upper-level pattern will evolve, but in general expect cold air advection aloft with some potential for shortwaves to move through and develop some additional rainfall chances. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1235 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will continue tracking east to northeast across northeast SD for the initial 1 to 2 hours of this TAF set. KATY`s terminal will be most affected between 06Z-07Z time frame with an MVFR cig/IFR vsby in +TSRA and severe wind gusts up to 60 kts. By 07Z-08Z, this activity is expected to be clear and east of the airfield. KABR may see some lingering VCTS and low level wind shear (LLWS) between 06Z-07Z. Otherwise, conditions will return to VFR at both of these terminals between 07Z-09Z. Prevailing winds out of the west to northwest will take hold during the daytime hours today with gusts between 25-30 kts. VFR conditions are expected at KPIR/KMBG terminals through this entire forecast set. West to northwest winds will increase later this morning and persist through the day gusting to between 25-30 kts. KMBG will see a chance for -SHRA around the mid morning hours but conditions should remain VFR. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Vipond DISCUSSION...BC AVIATION...Vipond |
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