153
FXUS63 KABR 282355 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
555 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High temperatures through Friday will be 5 to 20 degrees below
  average. Coldest temperatures will be found east of the James
  Valley.

- There is a 30-60% chance of light snow over central/north
  central South Dakota later tonight into Thursday, and again
  Thursday night into Friday. Both of these light snow events
  combined are expected to produce up to 1.5 inches of snow,
  mainly throughout and west of the Missouri River valley.

- There is a 35-70% chance of mainly light snow Saturday through
  Sunday morning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 540 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 00Z TAFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 138 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

At 1 PM CST, skies are a mix of sun and clouds across the
forecast area. Surface high pressure is still entrenched across
the Dakotas and Minnesota, while nearly stationary lee-of-the-
Rockies surface troffing/warm frontogenesis is happening out over
the central/northern high plains region, including extending over
into western South Dakota. Temperatures are quite diverse
throughout the region, with readings only in the single digits
above zero on and east of the Prairie Coteau; teens above zero in
and west of the James River valley; 20s in and west of the
Missouri River valley. Winds around 5 to 15 mph continue from the
north everywhere but central South Dakota, where readings are
light and variable, or beginning to acquire some form of easterly
component to them.

So, later tonight into Thursday and then again Thursday night into
Friday, a couple of weak low pressure systems will work down through
the northwest flow pattern aloft, utilizing this lee-side trof/warm
frontal zone to drum up some light banded snowfall mainly across the
central and western two-thirds of South Dakota. Tonight`s event may
have the potential to extend as far as a line from roughly Eureka to
Redfield. A lot depends on the remnant low level dry air in place
across northeast South Dakota. The potential light snow event slated
for Thursday night into Friday is expected to line up a bit further
west, influencing the west river counties in this CWA to, perhaps,
the first tier of counties just east of the Missouri River. Each
event is not expected to generate all that much snowfall. Both
tonight`s event and Thursday night`s event maintain a 15-30 percent
chance of an inch or more of snowfall occurring in each instance.
Those probabilities are spread out throughout the MO River valley
(both west and east river) for tonight`s potential event, while
those 15-30 percent probabilities of an inch or more with Thursday
night`s event concentrated further west in the CWA. Not much in the
way of wind attached to either of these events. Blowing snow output
is not registering right now for tonight through Thursday night. As
for temperatures, limited low level thermal advection for the next
24 hours, so below normal temperatures should continue. Models do
prog some low level CAA to kick in Thursday night, as a back door
cold front enters the scene from the northeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 138 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

The period opens Friday morning with a light snow event expected to
be ongoing across and west of the Missouri River valley. Over this
CWA, generally less than an inch of snow accumulation is expected
from this snow event. The flow pattern aloft is northwest flow, with
a large upper ridge splayed out across the western CONUS. Every once
in a while, a large/vigorous enough upper low moves into this
western CONUS upper ridge from the eastern Pacific ocean and manages
to come out on the back-side of the ridge in tact enough to generate
some light snow chances, once on Saturday through Sunday morning and
then perhaps again at some point in the Tuesday/Tuesday night
timeframe. Forecast water-equivalent precipitation with the weekend
low pressure system is generally at or below 0.10in right now. This
translates into rather light snow accumulation potential of up to an
inch.

Still seeing a warming trend in the models/various ensemble datasets
after Friday. That backdoor cold front should be just about as far
south and west into the CWA as it`s going to get Friday morning,
with a cold pocket of -18C to -21C air at 925hpa advecting down
across the eastern half of the CWA on Friday. Friday is probably the
coldest day of the 7-day forecast. Low level WAA is supposed to
spend some time over the CWA, starting Saturday, and continuing for
much of the period, save the infrequent/brief back door cold front`s
passage.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 540 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will continue to prevail at KABR/KATY through this
forecast period. KPIR/KMBG will retain low end VFR cigs into this
evening before turning MVFR by late evening/early overnight as
light snow spreads east and southeast across central SD. MVFR
cigs/vsbys will be possible in light snow through mid to late
morning Thursday. Some improvement will be possible by early
afternoon but MVFR cigs are likely to persist through the end of
this TAF cycle.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Vipond
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...Vipond