661
FXUS63 KABR 072316
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
616 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a Marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe storms
  over northeast SD and west central MN tonight. The primary
  hazards will be 1.75 inch in diameter hail and 60 mph wind
  gusts.

- Northwest wind 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 30 to 40 mph, low
  relative humidity, and dry cured fuels will create elevated
  fire weather conditions mainly over north central SD on
  Tuesday.

- There is a 20-45 percent chance of 0.25in or more of rainfall
  Saturday night into Sunday and again Sunday night into Monday.

- Temperatures closer to normal (highs mid 70s to low 80s) are
  forecast Wednesday, with below normal temperatures in the 60s
  to low 70s forecast Sunday and Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 613 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Concerning the evening update, CAMS are still erratic in their
projection of severe storms in both timing and location so this
remains a low confidence forecast. We have surface based cumulus in
the warm sector over southeast South Dakota, while the last of the
rain has finally passed out of the southeast portion of the CWA
(Watertown area). While some recovery in temperatures has occurred
to the west of this rain band between the Missouri and James
valleys, BUFKIT profiles continue to indicate it will remain capped
through the late afternoon hours. There is an additional cumulus
field associated with the front over Corson county as well but thus
far surface based convection associated with this feature is well
north of Bismarck. Aloft, not really much of a shortwave on Water
Vapor, though the NAM is still attempting at developing one and
lifting it up through southeast South Dakota later. While there is a
110kt jet streak, it appears we are under the right exit region as
the evening progresses. A 45kt 1/2km low level jet develops across
the east, with convergence in the northeast through 03-06Z. Needless
to say, a little convoluted. Without good evidence one way or the
other how things will develop, will stick with the going forecast.

See below for an update to the 00Z aviation discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

At 2 PM CDT, skies are partly to mostly cloudy with ongoing showers
and thunderstorms scattered across the forecast area. A cold front
has moved into the western Dakotas, on its way toward Minnesota
later tonight. Temperatures are warming through the 70, with a few
locations warming into the 80s on south-southeast breezes 15 to 25
mph including gusts at times to 35-45 mph.

The upper level flow pattern, which has included an upper level
ridge parked over the northern plains for several days, is beginning
to break down. Upper level longwave troffing looks to exert more
influence than upper level ridging during the 7-day, knocking at
least a couple of categories of temperature off of high temps during
most of the forecast period.

A cold front will pass over the CWA tonight, with a low level jet
establishing itself across eastern South Dakota prior to the fropa.
Expect the given dynamic and thermodynamic set-up tonight ahead of
the front will either keep the faucet of current thunderstorms
turned on well into this evening, or introduce an entirely separate
period of thunderstorms late this evening across northeast South
Dakota on the nose of the low level jet as it develops. SPC still
has the eastern half of the CWA in a marginal risk for severe
weather tonight. One inch hail and 60 mph damaging thunderstorm wind
gusts are possible.

Breezy/windy west-northwest winds and drier air on Tuesday will be
creating elevated (high to very high) fire danger conditions
especially across north central South Dakota. Criteria for a Red
Flag Warning may night be reached Tuesday afternoon, but perhaps a
Special Weather Statement might be useful to increase the visibility
of Tuesday`s fire weather situation.

Near normal temperatures are forecast Tuesday night through
Wednesday night with the influence of an upper level trof north in
the region before things warm back up briefly Thursday through
Friday when transient upper level ridging works quickly over the
northern CONUS/southern Canada region.

Beyond Friday, the pattern aloft over this CWA becomes influenced
primarily by upper level troffing (cooler than climo normal
conditions?) that should bring a couple of meaningful precipitation
chances to the CWA over the weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 613 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions outside of storms, with the higher potential for
storms at the KATY terminal through about 06Z. South winds
shift to northwest with a slow moving frontal system.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...07