816
FXUS63 KABR 080808
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
308 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms is in
effect Thursday afternoon through evening for north central South
Dakota and parts of central South Dakota west of the Missouri River.
Hail of 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts of 60 to 70 miles per hour
will be the main threats.

- A slight cooldown is expected today and Thursday, with widespread
near-normal to just below normal high temperatures (upper 70s to low
80s). A warming trend begins by the end of the week, and highs may
potentially hit triple digits over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

While the severe threat has ended this morning as of 08Z, concern
has shifted to ongoing flooding over parts of northeastern South
Dakota. Keeping a close eye out for flood/flash flood potential this
morning given the volume of rain that has fallen over the region. As
of 08Z, most areas across northeastern South Dakota have seen 2-4"
over the past 24 hours, with the heaviest hit areas seeing 4-5".

The next chances for rain comes on Thursday, mainly along and west
of the Missouri River during the afternoon to evening hours. A
Marginal Risk for severe weather is in place for north central South
Dakota as well as parts of central South Dakota west of the Missouri
River. CAPE/Shear combo of 1000-2000 J/kg and 25-35 knots
respectively will support hail as a potential threat. Wind will also
be a concern, with ample areas of DCAPE over 1000 J/kg present.
Overall confidence is fairly low at this point given that these
conditions are fairly marginal, but the threat will certainly be
there.

A broad upper-level ridge begins to build over the western and
central CONUS over the weekend, allowing for a significant warmup to
occur. By Sunday and Monday, high temperatures may exceed 100
degrees. The latest NBM probabilities sit at 50-80% chances to reach
100 degrees both days. As far as Heat Risk, Major to possibly
Extreme Heat Risk will be in place, with the highest levels being on
Monday afternoon. This indicates the potential for widespread heat
impacts, particularly for those sensitive to heat. Ensemble clusters
show a persistent signal for this ridge to sit overhead, so above
normal temperatures can most likely be expected through the end of
the week. The ridge will also shut down any potential for rain,
leading to a dry forecast over the weekend and into at least the
start of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Areas of TSRA/+TSRA across northeast SD into west central MN
early this morning will be affecting KABR/KATY for the first
couple of hours of the TAF valid period. MVFR/IFR vsbys can be
expected with the heavy rain-producing thunderstorms there.
KABR is dealing with a comms issue, but in house real-time data
should permit for amendments to KABR TAF. KMBG comms have also
gone down, and will be carrying AMD NOT SKED on that TAF.
MVFR/IFR CIGs are forecast to develop/increase across the
region by morning and persist for, at least, the first half of
the day before there is any potential of VFR conditions
returning.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Flood Watch until 5 AM CDT early this morning for SDZ006>008-
     011-021.
MN...Flood Watch until 5 AM CDT early this morning for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...10