872
FXUS63 KABR 050640
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
140 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few spotty thunderstorms are possible over portions of
northeastern South Dakota into western Minnesota this afternoon
through the early evening. While no severe weather is anticipated,
some storms could produce pea size hail and wind gusts of 50 with
any stronger storm.

- A lull in precipitation expected tonight through Saturday night
with the return of shower and thunderstorms Sunday and periodically
through next week.

A brief weekend warmup will push high temperatures into the 90s this
weekend, around 10 to 15 degrees above normal for early June.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 125 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

As of 1am, lingering rain and sub severe thunderstorms continue over
portions of south central though east central SD and southward. This
entire cluster of convection continues to track east. Heavy
rains overnight has resulted in some flooding with an Areal
Flood Warning in effect over southern Hyde and southwestern Hand
Counties.

Mainly zonal flow continues aloft over the Northern Plains early
with ongoing weak shortwave energy. Surface low is over
Manitoba/Ontario/MN border with its cold front stretching from
MN and southwestward through east central to south central SD.
By 12Z, this front will track a bit east with the CWA behind the
fropa late morning/midday. CAMs indicates most of the
convection by this time will mainly be over southern and
southeastern SD. However, a few of the Cams show portions of
east central SD could be clipped by the ongoing rain. By the
midday, high pressure moves in over western SD and ridge aloft
over MT/WY through the western Dakotas which will keep central
SD dry. Ongoing shortwave energy aloft will continue over the
eastern half of the Dakotas with a few of the CAMs indicating
the possibility of additional spotty elevated storms firing up
(behind the surface cold front) over portions of northeastern
SD/western MN this afternoon. Any potential convection will have
limited instability as CAPE will be 1000 j/kg or less, however,
bulk shear will be around 30kts. The SPC has just general
thunderstorms for the outlook today but if any cell within this
shear/cape can grow vertically enough into the cooler air
aloft, it may produce small hail and wind gusts of 50mph as mid
level lapse rates will be rather weak.

The ridge will continue to track east this evening with the CWA
underneath it by late tonight where it will continue to build over
the Northern Plains through Saturday with the CWA under the western
portion of the ridge by Saturday evening. This will keep the weather
dry and quiet as high pressure at the surface remains dominant. By
Sunday a shortwave and its surface low will will track northeastward
and over southeastern SD by early Monday. At the same time, a cold
front will track eastward across central SD (per low in Canada)
with the fropa along the ~James River by 12Z Monday. These
features will bring additional shower and thunderstorms chances
Sunday evening/night through Monday morning with pop chances
mainly James Valley and eastward by Monday afternoon and
continuing through Monday evening. This longwave trough setting
up over the western CONUS, and its embedded shortwaves, along
with the potential of additional surface low passing over the
region will bring periodic chances of showers and thunderstorms
to the CWA through the end of the week. Machine learning models
do highlight the potential for severe weather next week, however
nothing has been outlooked by the SPC as of now.

With the ridge overhead for the weekend, high temperatures will
increase into the upper 80s into the mid 90s Saturday with potential
highs reaching the upper 90s over central SD Sunday. Highs will
overall be in the 80s on Monday with temps warming back into the 90s
Tuesday with the potential for a few 100 degree readings on
Wednesday as this looks to be our warmest day of next week. Add in
moist dewpoints and a few 100 degree heat indices look possible for
a few locations James Valley and eastward. Probability of reaching
100 degrees is 40-65%, highest over south central SD. However the
NBM 25-75th spread is quite large, on the order of 7-10 degrees
Wednesday and 20 degrees Thursday due to low confidence in exact
synoptic setup this far out.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

The threat for a -SHRA/-TSRA will persist for the first few
hours of this TAF cycle at KPIR/KATY and possibly as far north
as KABR, but low confidence in any precip reaching that far
north. Otherwise, the trends will be for quieter weather
conditions going into the daytime hours today with mostly VFR
conditions expected. There may be pockets of lower MVFR CIGs or
patchy fog across the region early this morning closer to
daybreak, but low confidence on overall areal coverage.
Anticipate daytime convective -SHRA/-TSRA to pop up during the
afternoon hours across northeast SD. This could potentially
affect operations at KABR/KATY terminals, although low
confidence remains on areal coverage and left the forecast for
those TAF sites dry for now.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MMM
AVIATION...Vipond