063
FXUS63 KABR 291406
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
906 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for light rain are possible today (20-40%) and
  Thursday (15-30%). Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
  and evening, but no severe weather is anticipated.

- High temperatures 5 to 15 degrees below normal expected
  through the work week, with highs in the 50s. Weekend highs
  will increase slightly into the 60s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 904 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Light spotty showers have developed across much of southeastern
ND, moving to our area. Little to no accumulation has been
reported from these higher based showers. We`ll continue to
monitor the latest trends, and may need to increase the chance
of precipitation over northeastern SD and west central MN late
this morning. Otherwise, the ongoing forecast remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 118 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Mainly clear skies and calm winds this morning under the influence
of a high pressure center to the south. While guidance is somewhat
inconsistent, conditions appear somewhat favorable for some patchy
fog development early this morning. Main area that would see
development appears to be in the James River Valley around 12Z. At
this time confidence is low on any widespread development of low
visibilities, but can`t rule out some patchy areas of visibility
below 3 miles at times. Any fog that does develop should dissipate
fairly quickly after sunrise when winds pick up slightly.

Right entrance region of an upper-level trough will sit over the
Northern Plains for the next couple of days, leading to some chances
for rain showers to develop both today and Thursday afternoon under
very similar setups both days. Jet streaks aloft riding down into
the trough will provide divergence aloft, with steep low-level lapse
rates aiding in convective development. Model soundings do show some
potential for a capping inversion aloft (above the 700-600mb
saturated layer) that may limit the growth of the potential
developing showers. However the marginal MUCAPE (