945
FXUS63 KABR 090522 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1122 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a slight chance (20-40%) for light rain/snow across
northern SD on Monday.

- There is a chance (30-50%) for some precipitation Wednesday night
into Thursday morning, but confidence on precipitation type is low.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1119 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 06Z TAFS.

UPDATE Issued at 917 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Made some minor adjustments to cloud cover for tonight based on
current satellite trends. Guidance had been indicating the
potential for developing low stratus and fog across the James
Valley after midnight, but models have since backed off on that
idea. Will continue to monitor though in case changes are needed.
Beefed up winds a bit along the eastern slopes of the Prairie
Coteau as hi-res guidance suggests there will be at least a few
hours early Monday morning of some gusty winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

A weak area of low pressure will cross the region on Monday,
bringing a 20 to 40 percent chance for light pcpn. Locations along
the ND/SD border will have the best potential of seeing light rain.
The higher terrain areas of the Sisseton Hills could see light snow
with the rain. Overall, QPF values remain pretty light, with no
significant impacts expected.

A period of dry conditions with above average temperatures can be
expected Monday night through Tuesday, with highs in the 30s and
40s. These readings are 10 top 17 degrees above average for this
time of year. By Wednesday, models support an area of low pressure
developing over Wyoming with LLM advecting northward across the
plain states. As the surface low pushes east across the area, pcpn
should develop within a zone of WAA, mainly across eastern SD and
western Minnesota. Decent forcing does support higher QPF amounts
exceeding two tenths of inch, mainly over MN, and perhaps the far
eastern SD. However, the storm system is still a few days away,
thus the pattern may change some more.

The rest of the forecast period appears dry and mild as a west coast
trough develops with downstream ridging over the northern plains.
There is a 15-25 percent chance highs exceed 50 degree over much of
the CWA on Friday, with a higher chance over central and western SD.
The probability of exceeding 50 degrees increases slightly through
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1119 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions can be expected to prevail at all terminals through
this next 24 hour forecast cycle. SCT/BKN mid to high level
cloudiness is expected. Winds will turn gusty out of the northwest
Monday afternoon in the wake of a cold front that will sweep through
the area.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Vipond
DISCUSSION...SD
AVIATION...Vipond