205
FXUS63 KABR 150716
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
216 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain lingers over the region this morning, eventually
exiting to the south and east by the early afternoon. The highest
accumulations, around a tenth to a quarter of an inch, will remain
over south central South Dakota.

- Northwest winds of 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph are
expected to develop this afternoon and evening across central and
north central South Dakota behind a cold front. A Wind Advisory has
been issued for all counties west of Brown and Spink from late this
morning through early Friday morning.

- Strong winds combined with drier air behind the cold front passing
through will push Grassland Fire Danger up into the High to Very
High category this afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Rain showers are moving in this morning, and as of ~07Z much of the
forecast area has scattered showers overhead. Generally light
rainfall rates are expected, and south central South Dakota is still
expected to see the highest accumulation totals. There, a tenth to a
quarter of an inch is expected, with some locally higher amounts
possible. Outside of central South Dakota, only expecting a few
hundredths of rainfall in total. These showers will slowly exit the
forecast area to the south and east later this morning to perhaps
the early afternoon at the latest.

Behind a cold front passing through today, winds will turn
northwesterly and increase. Latest probability guidance gives a 60-
80% chance to reach Wind Advisory criteria (gusts up to 45 miles per
hour) through the afternoon through the early overnight period along
and west of the Missouri River, a number that is likely underdone
given known model biases. Strongest gusts are expected to reach up
to 55 miles per hour. There is even some minor signal (isolated 10-
20% chance) for some 58+ mile per hour winds, but confidence is not
nearly high enough to warrant an upgrade to current headlines.
Instead sticking with a Wind Advisory, but have made a few
adjustments with this forecast package. First, Buffalo, Hyde, Hand,
and Faulk Counties have been added to the Advisory. Secondly, the
arrival time of the strong winds will be a bit earlier than
previously anticipated, and counties west of the Missouri River now
have the Advisory start at 15Z today. All other counties west of
Brown and Spink remain at the 18Z start time, and both groups are
set to expire at 09Z, a slight extension in time from the previous
product issuance. Strong winds will travel eastward and persist
through the overnight to early morning hours over northeastern South
Dakota and western Minnesota. An additional Wind Advisory may be
necessary, but highest gusts are borderline criteria in that area.
At this time no Advisory will be issued for that area, but that may
change with further forecast updates.

Skies over central and north central South Dakota will gradually
clear out early Friday morning, while northeastern South Dakota and
western Minnesota are expected to remain under a bit heavier cloud
cover. With near-normal temperatures in place through the week, this
means that overnight lows will have a chance to drop below freezing,
particularly over areas that clear out. Confidence is much lower in
the potential for clouded areas to reach below freezing. Without a
hard freeze yet this season, Frost and Freeze headlines will still
be on the table Friday morning over north central South Dakota.
Temperatures may once again dip below freezing Friday night into
Saturday morning, and a headline cannot be ruled out there either.
However, full humidity recovery is not expected Saturday morning, so
frost may struggle to develop.

Over the weekend and into next week, an upper-level ridge is set to
move overhead. As a result, a warmer airmass will be allowed into
the region, pushing 850mb temperatures to 15-20 degrees Celsius over
the weekend. These temperatures are above the 90th percentile for
this time of year, which will translate to highs in the upper 60s to
low 70s over the weekend (roughly 10-15 degrees above normal). In
terms of precipitation, dry conditions are expected through the
weekend and into the start of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Band of -SHRA/SHRA moving northward across the region at TAF
issuance (06Z) and may bring a couple hour period of 4-6SM VSBY
at KABR/KATY. This band will be through KPIR at 06Z and just on
the edge of KMBG to where VC (vicinity) will be mentioned.
Additional chances for -SHRA through the morning hours on
Thursday and will use PROB30 to handle this. CIGs are still MVFR
at KABR/KATY with no clear indication on when they will depart.
That said, there are signs more so in KABR for brief
improvements to VFR later this morning before more MVFR CIGs
overspread KABR and the rest of the region tonight. Strong
northwest surface winds gusting from 35 to 45 kts will develop
from west to east across the region during the late morning and
afternoon hours.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 4 AM
     CDT /3 AM MDT/ Friday for SDZ003-015-033-045-048.
     Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM CDT Friday for
     SDZ004-005-009-010-016-017-034>037-051.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...TMT