875
FXUS63 KABR 160618
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
118 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe storms
across north central SD this afternoon. The main threat will be wind
gusts of 60 mph, but some storms may produce 1 inch diameter hail.

- Widespread precipitation chances of 70-90% move into mainly north
central to northeastern SD/west central MN Wednesday, along with
some weak thunderstorms. No severe weather is expected at this time.

- There is a 70% chance of winds out of the northwest gusting
greater than 45 mph Wednesday afternoon west of the Missouri River.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 117 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

As of 1 AM CDT, temperatures are in the low 50s with winds out of
the northwest at about 10 mph. Storms have moved east and out
of the region leaving behind mainly clear skies.

Storms return this evening mainly over north central and eastern SD.
There is a Marginal (level 1 out of 5) risk for severe storms in
north central SD with the main threat being strong winds of 60 mph,
although there could be some storms that produce hail 1 inch in
diameter. This marginal might also be expanded into eastern SD with
further updates. The first round of storms looks to move across from
about 4 PM to 7 PM CDT, and then a second round moves through
between 10 PM Tuesday and 3 AM CDT Wednesday. CAMs show a break
Wednesday morning a couple hours after sunrise with showers and
storms popping back up during the afternoon to evening hours. This
second round of precipitation looks much more scattered in nature
than what moves across the area this evening. No severe weather is
expected at this time but it won`t take much to get severe levels
winds with the strong winds already expected (more on that in the
next paragraph) Thursday afternoon also has a chance for some
showers and storms. No severe weather is expected with those storms.

Temperatures through the period continue to range between average
and as much as 10 degrees below average, coolest being Wednesday and
Thursday. Wednesday will also be quite windy with gusts of 40-50 mph
west of the Missouri River during the afternoon. Chance of gusts
higher than 45 mph is between 70 and 90% south of Hwy 14. North of
Hwy 14, the chances decrease to 30-50%. The rest of the forecast
looks to much much calmer wind-wise.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through the afternoon. Showers and
scattered thunderstorms move in Tuesday evening.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...20