991
FXUS63 KABR 150600
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
100 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 30-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms over mainly
north central to northeastern SD and western MN, with around a 30%
chance of rainfall in excess of 0.10, or a wetting rain, for areas
north and east of Aberdeen this afternoon through this evening. No
severe weather is expected at this time.

- Widespread precipitation chances of 70-90% move into mainly north
central to northeastern SD/west central MN Wednesday, along with
some weak thunderstorms. No severe weather is expected at this time.

- There is a 70% chance of winds out of the northwest gusting
greater than 45 mph Wednesday afternoon west of the Missouri River.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

As of 1 AM CDT, temperatures are in the low 50s with winds out of
the west at less than 10 mph. Some clouds are moving in from the
north that will continue to spread south through the day. There is
also a chance for some showers and weak thunderstorms this afternoon
across north central and northeast SD. No severe weather is expected
at this time. Along with this chance of storms comes some fairly
strong wind gusts out of the northwest today at 35 to 40 mph,
highest over north central SD.

The best chance for widespread precip still looks to be Tuesday
night through Wednesday evening as a low pressure system moves
towards and across the region. Models are now showing the center of
the low pressure moving across SD instead of ND. This hasn`t changed
the precipitation forecast much, however, winds Wednesday afternoon
have increased and spread farther east. The current forecast has
gusts of 55 mph over north central and south central SD. The
probability of gusts over 55 mph is around 50% in south central SD
and less than 50% elsewhere. Winds above 45 mph are expected to
spread as far east as the James River with gusts above 30 mph
expected west of the Sisseton Hills/Prairie Coteau region. Another
thing that hasn`t changed is the forecast high temperatures through
the week and into the weekend. We are still expecting near to
slightly below average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected with increasing west to northwest
winds.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...20