719
FXUS63 KABR 101830
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
130 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms
for parts of northeast SD and west central MN this afternoon into
this evening. Hail of 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts up to 60 mph
will be the main threat.

- An extreme heat warning for north central and heat advisory for
the rest of central and portions of northeastern SD and west central
MN have been issued. Record to near record high temperatures could
potentially hit triple digits Sunday through Tuesday. This level of
heat may cause widespread heat related impacts particularly for
those without adequate cooling and those sensitive to heat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 129 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

As a frontal boundary tries to move south today over northeastern SD
into an area with some instability, scattered showers and storms
might try to form this afternoon into the evening over northeastern
SD. Models are showing decent instability, around 1000-2000 J/kg
CAPE values, over northeastern SD and west central MN this
afternoon. While there is decent instability for storm development,
there is a lack of shear over the area to help create organized and
longer lived storms. High-res models continue to show the storms
developing and moving through northeastern SD. Through the evening,
the storms should start to dissipate and/or move to the south. There
is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for the storms to become severe.
With mid-level lapse rates between 6-7 C/km, hail up to 1 inch and
60 mph wind gusts could be possible if any storm tries to develop.

An upper-level ridge will be starting to move in tonight and will
continue to build and sit over SD through the weekend into the
middle of next week. This ridge will help some surface high pressure
to build to the southeast of central and northeastern SD, which will
help to keep showers and storms from developing during the weekend
into the beginning of next week. The ridge and high pressure will
start to move warm temperatures in this weekend into next week.
Temperatures Sunday and Monday will be 10-20 degrees warmer than
normal and this could lead to record or near record high
temperatures in north central and potentially south central SD.
Saturday, high temperatures and heat index values will in the low
90s to 100 degrees. It will warm Sunday through Tuesday to be in the
mid 90s to above 100 degrees. Low temperatures will not recover very
much overnight, especially Sunday night, which could help to further
increase chances for heat related impacts. The NWS heat risk will be
in the major category for central and northeastern SD through the
weekend into next week and could even get up into the extreme
category Monday and Tuesday. Those who are sensitive to heat or
without adequate cooling and hydration will be vulnerable to heat
illnesses and other heat impacts. Make sure to stay hydrated and
cool in this heat. An extreme heat warning has been issued for north
central SD and a heat advisory has been issued for the rest of
central and northeastern SD and west central MN. East central is on
the edge of needing a heat advisory, and one will likely be issued
later. Additionally, the heat advisory might be upgraded to extreme
heat warning in some areas as compounding effects from long term
heat could start to cause issues in areas.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will continue through the night into Saturday over
all terminals. Southerly winds this evening will shift to be from
the southeast and then shift back to be from the south Saturday.
KATY could have some scattered showers and storms potentially move
through this afternoon into the early evening. These storms have a
marginal chance of being severe, with 1 inch hail and 60 mph winds
possible.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Heat Advisory from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ Saturday to 7 PM CDT
     /6 PM MDT/ Tuesday for SDZ005>008-010-011-017-018-021-
     033>037-045-048-051.
     Extreme Heat Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ Saturday to 7
    PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Tuesday for SDZ003-004-009-015-016.
MN...Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for
     MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...12