291
FXUS63 KABR 070151 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
851 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Slight (Level 2 of 5) to Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) is in
  place for storms developing this afternoon and evening. The
  main severe threats will be hail of 1 to 1.5 inches in
  diameter and wind gusts of 60 to 70 miles per hour.

- Chances for severe storms return Tuesday afternoon through
  evening, and a Slight Risk is in place for much of the
  forecast area. All severe threats, including wind of 60 to 70
  miles per hour, hail of 1 to 1.5 inches in diameter,
  tornadoes, and heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding will
  be possible. There is a slight risk of excessive rainfall over
  northeast SD and west central MN.

- A slight cooldown is expected Wednesday through at least
  Thursday, with widespread near-normal to just below normal
  high temperatures (low to mid 80s). Signs point to a warming
  trend beginning by the end of the week, and highs may
  potentially hit triple digits over the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 842 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 468 was recently issued for the
eastern CWA and have updated forecast/wording to reflect this.
Also made adjustments to PoPs as current storm/shower coverage
is much less than the what grids were indicating. Models still
suggest some back-building southwest into the eastern CWA off
the activity across western MN and southeast ND, but quite a bit
of uncertainty as to the areal coverage.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

As of 12:30 PM CDT, temperatures around the area are in the mid to
upper 80s with winds out of the southeast between 10 and 15 mph,
gusting to about 25 to 30 mph. A front will move northwest to
southeast across SD and stall about halfway across the area,
bringing winds around to the northwest behind the front. This front
will be the focus for some storms later this afternoon into the
evening hours and again Tuesday afternoon/evening.

There is a low to our southwest over southwestern SD. This will not
move much at all and be over central SD Tuesday morning. There is a
slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe storms over northeastern
SD and west central MN along and east of a line from Aberdeen to
Miller to Watertown. CAMs show storms moving into the northeast CWA
around 7 PM and last until around midnight. MLCAPE over the region
is between 1500 and 1800 J/kg with lapse rates of 7.5 C/kg. Bulk
shear doesn`t look amazing, only about 30 to 35kts. The RAP is
showing DCAPE between 1000 and 1200 J/kg. Main hazards today are
large hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter and strong wind gust of 60-
75 mph. With the lack of shear (bulk and surface level) the tornado
threat is low but can`t be ruled out. Tuesday, there is a slight
risk over the entire forecast area and the environment is much more
favorable. This is expected to be a more widespread event. While
model soundings do show a cap, its not much of one (according to the
RAP and HRRR) and storms should be able to break through it. CAMs
are again showing storms getting started about 7 PM, this time over
central SD and tracking across the entire CWA. Bulk shear is 30 to
40 kts with good surface shear. Lapse rates are in the 7-8 C/km
range. Storms will have an increased chance of tornadoes (SPC
has a 2% area over most of the CWA). Also possible will be large
hail and strong wind gusts. Excessive rainfall and flooding
with be possible with these storms due to heavy downpours and
potentially slow moving/training storms. Wednesday also has a
marginal risk for severe storms.

Hot and humid conditions are forecast for this coming weekend with
heat index values approaching or exceeding 100 degrees, especially
over central SD. This will put HeatRisk values into the moderate to
major categories, affecting anyone without access to cooling and
hydration.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through much of the TAF period.
Although, will be watching potential for TSRA/+TSRA later this
evening across northeast SD, possibly affecting KABR/KATY. Any
heavier downpours that move over a TAF site will be capable of
IFR/MVFR VSBY. Another round of TSRA are expected across the
region on Tuesday/Tuesday evening.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...TMT