972
FXUS63 KABR 141439 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
939 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A band of light snow has developed over portions of central and
  north central South Dakota and will drift northward through
  this morning. A general 1 to 2 inches, with locally higher
  amounts, is expected.

- A Wyoming Low will bring snow, heavy at times, for the weekend.
  Snowfall totals of 3-10 inches west of HWY 281 and 12-20 inches
  to the east, with highest snowfall amount to occur along the
  eastern edge of the Prairie Coteau.

- Sustained winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts 40 to 50 mph develop
  Saturday night and lead to blowing/drifting snow and white
  out/blizzard conditions over much of the region.

- Very cold air follows with temperatures Sunday into Monday some
  15 to 30 degrees below normal. Wind chill values heading into
  Monday morning are expected to be in the teens below to 20s
  below zero.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 931 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

No significant updates to the going forecast this morning. Still
tracking the band of snow that is slowly lifting northeast this
morning from Mobridge to just southwest of Aberdeen and to
Watertown. Have recieved several observations of 4" snowfall
amounts overnight in the Hayes/Pierre and southwest areas, which
was higher than expected. But with the band showing more movement
now and expected to continue to lift north-northeast in the coming
hours, think most spots this morning will fall into the dusting to
an inch or two of snow from this initial band.

For the tonight into Sunday forecast, that appears to be on track
at this time and current indications are for no significant
changes to going forecast package for this afternoon. On the QPF
side of things, seeing the 06Z GEFS trending more towards the EC-
Ens and a consensus of the deterministic global/CAM runs. That
aligns fairly well with the going forecast and away from the
consistent higher amounts from the GEFS members. One area in the
headlines that may need to be adjusted is a potential upgrade to a
blizzard for some of the north central counties on the western
edge of the current blizzard warning (where the falling snow and
overnight winds best overlap). Will continue to look into that.

UPDATE Issued at 627 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

A surface low is developing in WY today, which is causing a snow
band to be over central SD this morning. The snow band has been
slowly moving north overnight and will continue its northward track
through the morning. This band has been moving a bit slower than
models previously showed, which has shifted snowfall totals through
Saturday afternoon further south than previously forecast, with 1-2
inches with some localized higher amounts up to 3 inches. Southeast
winds will be fairly light into the afternoon and should be weak
enough to not cause blowing snow, though some localized areas where
snow is still falling could see some drifting and blowing snow
during the afternoon.

The low surface pressure system will start to move east over NE
Saturday night into Sunday, which will cause a larger, more
widespread band of precipitation to move into central and
northeastern SD Saturday afternoon and overnight. Models have
continued to shift the track of the storm to the north, which has
caused the southeast winds to push warmer temperatures into the area
during the morning. This then causes some areas south of HWY 212 to
have the chance to see some rain sprinkles in the afternoon to start
before cooling temperatures change it to rain/snow mix then snow.
Because of this, some areas in east central and south central SD
could see a spotty to a light glaze of ice before the snow moves in
to cover everything. If there continues to be a northward trend to
this winter storm track, then more areas could see rain to start
with and have a small chance for a light glaze of ice to occur.

With the northward track in the models, snowfall amount have
increased, except in areas where there could be some rain to start
with. Consideration has been made to the fact that the models have
tended to be a bit too far north with the storm tracks though this
winter, and this has pushed us to not lean strictly on the NBM
ensembles for storm track and snowfall amounts and blend in some
models that have kept the track a bit more to the south. This still
caused an increase in snowfall totals though. The percent chance for
greater than 10 inches is 60-100% east of the Missouri River and
highest chance over and east of the Prairie Coteau. There is a 50-
80% chance for greater than 15 inches over the Prairie Coteau.
Additionally, with the winds switching to be out of the northeast to
northerly while the snow is falling will cause upslope flow along
the eastern edge of the Prairie Coteau to develop more snow to fall
in that area. This leads to a 30-50% chance for more than 20 inches
in that area, with snowfall rates around 1 to 2 inches per hour
after midnight into early Sunday morning in this area while winds
from the northeasterly direction. One thing to consider is if the
storm track shifts more to the north, higher snowfall total chances
increase, and if the track shifts more to the south, then there
could be less snowfall.

Strong winds will start to develop Saturday afternoon/evening and
strengthen overnight, with the strongest winds likely to occur
overnight into early Sunday morning. The ensembles have a widespread
40-70% chance Saturday night for sustained winds above 30mph
increasing to a 60-90% chance early Sunday morning, highest over the
Prairie Coteau and along its eastern edge. At the same time, there
is a 50-70% chance for winds to gust over 45mph. These winds in
combination with the falling snow will cause blowing snow and
reduced visibilities starting late Saturday afternoon and increasing
to blizzard conditions Saturday evening and overnight into Sunday
morning. Travel will be extremely hazardous during this time due to
the blizzard conditions and the copious amounts of snow that will
accumulate. Take cautions to avoid traveling and if you have to,
make sure you and your car are prepared if you get stuck. Sunday
afternoon, high surface pressure is forecast to start moving over
central SD and spread east through the evening. This will help to
reduce wind speeds over central SD Sunday afternoon and evening and
over northeastern SD during the evening and overnight. Blowing snow
and reduced visibilities should start to improve Sunday afternoon
into the evening as the snow fall stops and winds start to decrease.

Cold air advecting into central and northeastern SD Saturday evening
and Sunday will cause temperatures to start to drop. Temperatures
Sunday are forecast to be 15-25 degrees colder than normal and 20-30
degrees colder than normal Monday. The coldest of these temperatures
is currently forecast to occur overnight Sunday into Monday morning,
with low temperatures in the single digits above and below 0 and
wind chills in the negative teens and negative 20s. The high surface
pressure that moves in late Sunday will stick around Monday into
Tuesday morning. Then another round of precipitation is forecast to
move though Tuesday along a frontal passage, though the track,
amounts, and timing have a lot of uncertainty right now as models
are not in a lot of agreement. After Tuesday, models forecast an
upper-level ridge to move over the state, which will help
temperatures in the later half of the week to warm up and
precipitation chances to slim down.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 627 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

A band of -SN/SN will affect northern SD this morning, bringing
MVFR/IFR VSBY/CIGs at times. -SN looks to be moving north of KPIR
this morning, with conditions improving to VFR. Although,
deteriorating conditions are expected again there by this evening.
As a whole, conditions will worsen overnight as strong northeast
winds gust to 30-40kt at times in areas of SN/+SN. VSBY will drop
to below one-half miles at times in areas of +SN.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 3 AM CDT Sunday
     for SDZ007-008-011.

     Blizzard Warning from 3 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for SDZ007-008-011-
     020>023.

     Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to
     1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ Sunday for SDZ003-004-009-015-016-034.

     Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM CDT Sunday
     for SDZ005-006-010.

     Blizzard Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for SDZ005-006-010-
     017>019-036-037.

     Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM CDT Sunday
     for SDZ017>019-036-037.

     Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 3 AM CDT Sunday
     for SDZ020>023.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening
     to 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ Sunday for SDZ033-035-045-048-051.

     Blizzard Warning from 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ to 4 PM CDT /3 PM MDT/
     Sunday for SDZ033-035-045-048-051.

MN...Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 3 AM CDT Sunday
     for MNZ039-046.

     Blizzard Warning from 3 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SRF
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...TMT