745
FXUS63 KABR 061035
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
535 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions expected through
Saturday.

- Pattern change developing during the weekend leading to cooler
temperatures next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 535 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

UPDATE for Aviation discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

The front is slowly moving across the James valley and will
eventually traverse the rest of the CWA by daylight. Cold advection
is rather weak, and BUFKIT profiles indicate there will be an
extremely shallow inversion to start the day, with temperatures in
the 50s. Thus, with favorable mixing on a west/northwest wind, it
not being very cold and the inversion will mix out rapidly... we
shall see temperatures jump quickly through the 60s into the 70s.
While we did overachieve in comparison to the NBM yesterday, this is
a different regime and as such should not be a benchmark on how well
the NBM is doing going forwards. Same with dewpoints, though
upstream we`re seeing 30s replace the 50s in place so there is some
dry advection. Mixed winds only top out around 15 to 20kts, with NBM
winds around 15 to 25mph. Could be close to Red Flag up in
Corson/Dewey so will need to be monitored.

Mild for mid week, with light northerly flow Wednesday and a shift
to southerly for Thursday. Focus shifts to the pattern change coming
this weekend/next week as a broad upper low cuts off over the
western CONUS. This initially amplifies the ridge overhead with well
above normal (15 to 20F) temperatures Saturday. Deterministic
GFS/EC/Canadian bring the core of warmest 850mb air, which is just
just just barely 2 standard deviations above climo, Friday night,
meaning some uncertainty on when the hotter air hits. NBM 25th-75th
percentile range runs some 7 to 10 degrees Friday and 3 to 7 degrees
Saturday. Still some difference on when frontal passage flips the
script as well and temperatures drop to seasonal if not slightly
below normal (Monday NBM forecast 5 to 10 below normal). Sundays
25th-75th range for highs jumps to 15 to 23 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 535 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...06