088
FXUS63 KABR 161821
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
121 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There`s a 70-90% chance of a wintry mix of precipitation on
  Tuesday, over the Missouri River valley region over into
  northeastern South Dakota and west central Minnesota. At this
  time, light snow accumulation appears to be confined to mainly
  over northeast South Dakota and west central Minnesota and light
  ice accumulation mainly west of the James River valley region.

- Depending on how long it takes to melt the snow, temperatures
  over a large portion of the forecast area could be in the 60s
  and 70s Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 119 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

At 1 PM CDT, surface high pressure has rendered winds light and
variable. Skies are sunny/mostly sunny; March sunshine working on
melting snow even though temperatures are only in the single
digits/teens (a few low 20s west river) over the forecast area.

There`s a big upper level ridge over the west coast. Models prog it
to basically hold its shape/intensity during most of the 7-day
forecast. Models also prog it to shift eastward into the Rockies
over the next few days before some shortwave energy runs into it
during the upcoming weekend, attempting to lower its amplitude.

As the upper ridge propagates eastward, a much warmer airmass will
begin to invade the CWA, starting Tuesday when a warm front advects
across the region from west to east. Probably doesn`t make it passed
the James River valley on Tuesday, but Tuesday night into Wednesday,
it should complete the journey into Minnesota, with the entire CWA
in much above normal temperature territory, which is expected to
persist through Friday, perhaps even Saturday, before a cold front
works southward through the area, cooling things down some.

As Tuesday`s warm front approaches from the west, a shortwave will
round the top of the western CONUS upper level ridge and work
southeastward toward the Great Lakes region. This wave`s zone of mid-
level WAA/lift, is expected to tap into the surface/low level warm
frontal zone to produce a transient band of light precipitation,
starting off across north central South Dakota prior to sunrise
Tuesday, spreading east into Minnesota by mid-afternoon. Even
though, a non-diurnal warming trend is expected after midnight
tonight, the column should be cold enough that the eastern half to
two-thirds of the precipitation shield is snow p-type, with the
western half to one-third of the precipitation shield transitioning
to sleet/freezing rain as the low to mid-level (above freezing) warm
nose enter the column during this WAA sequence. Currently there is a
30 to 65% chance of the area receiving an inch of snow from this
band of precipitation, mainly east of the Missouri River valley.
There is also a 20 to 45% chance of the area receiving a couple
hundredths of an inch of ice accumulation from this band of
precipitation, mainly in/west of the Missouri River valley.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast at all 4 terminals through 06Z
tonight. During the last 9 hours of the TAF valid period, KMBG
(and probably KPIR) should experience some light snow. Toward the
end of the precipitation period, sleet or freezing rain may happen
as well. Between 12Z and 18Z, this precipitation should be making
its way toward the KABR and KATY terminals. Breezy southerly
winds, gusting to 25 to 30 knots, could stir up/blow snow at these
two terminals.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...10