626
FXUS63 KABR 252310 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
610 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is now just a 20-40% chance of 1/4" moisture over far
northern Corson county and a 15% or less chance across the rest of
the Missouri valley tonight into Friday morning. Negligible moisture
expected for the James valley and points east.

- The probability of exceeding wind advisory criteria (45 mph) is
between 30 and 60% west of the James valley Saturday.

- There is Marginal Risk (1 of 5) for severe weather Saturday.
Confidence is low on storm development due to very warm temperatures
above the surface. If storms do form, all hazards will be possible.

- Above normal temperatures for the weekend and next week.
Temperatures are forecast into the 90s and dewpoints well into the
60s. This will push heat index values into the mid 90s with
increased risk for heat related illnesses.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 526 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Increased pops across Stanley, Jones, and Lyman county until 2z,
leaning more toward the NAMnest which seems to match current
radar returns better than other models.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

As of 12:15 PM CDT, temperatures across the area are in the
upper 60s to low 70s and will get into the high 70s by the end
of the day. Winds are light and moving around to be out of the
east today. There is a 50-70% chance of some showers and weak
thunderstorms moving in from the west into north central SD
later this evening into the early morning hours of Friday.
Farther south the chances are closer to 20 to 40%. No severe
weather is expected at this time. QPF is still relatively
limited with the chance of more than a quarter inch around 20 to
40% in far northern Corson county and 15% or less to the south
and west of the Missouri River.

Looking once again to the weekend system, we are still seeing a good
cap over the area on Saturday in the GFS and now the NAM. The EC and
Canadian ensembles are not showing as much of a cap. This continues
the low confidence in storm development Saturday afternoon. However,
looking at hodographs, they still have a good bit of shear in the
lower levels and all hazards will be possible. The forecast location
of the low Saturday morning is still over MT/WY and then it looks to
stall over central SD Sunday. QPF amounts have dropped significantly
again and now the chance of more than a quarter inch in 24 hours
(ending Sunday morning) is about 35% or less across the entire
forecast area. There is a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for
severe storms along and west of a line from Sisseton to Fort
Thompson, and again, if storms form, all hazards will be possible.
SPC has put a 15% area just across the border in ND for Sunday which
may get extended into our area when it becomes day 3. At this time,
there is a severe cap Sunday but if storms form, they could become
severe. There is another 15% area over our central MN counties and
into Roberts county for Monday with some storms in the later evening
and overnight hours on the backside of the weekend low pressure.

The other big story in the forecast is the high temperatures and
high humidity starting Sunday. Temperatures will rise into the 80s
and 90s across the forecast area, warmest across eastern SD.
Dewpoints are forecast to rise into the 60s. This will result in
heat index values in the 90s across eastern SD which will push the
HeatRisk into the moderate to major categories. This heat will
affect anyone without access to cooling or hydration. Winds Friday
are expected to gust 30 to 35 mph mainly around and west of the
Missouri River. They are not expected to diminish much at all
overnight before spreading east across the vast majority of the
forecast area and increasing to 35 to 45 mph. The probability of
exceeding wind advisory criteria (45 mph) is between 30 and 60%
west of the James River Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 609 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will prevail through Friday afternoon. However,
KPIR may experience some brief MVFR cigs Friday morning.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...20
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...20