966
FXUS63 KABR 211724
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1224 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There will be a brief break on Tuesday before spotty chances of
rain return Tuesday night across central South Dakota. Occasional
rain chances continue Wednesday through the end of the week with the
highest chances (50-80%) Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
morning.

- Temperatures will remain near to slightly below seasonal averages
through Tuesday before climbing above normal Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

The upper low is centered around Sioux City late this morning. It
continues to pull bands of light rain and low clouds into portions
southeast of a line from Ortonville to Pierre. Farther north,
however, sunshine is beginning to filter through with more breaks in
the cloud coverage. This system is expected to pull farther south
and east this afternoon taking the precip and clouds with it.

The mid-level moisture hangs around Tuesday along with some
shortwave activity. Southeast winds increase on return flow as sfc
high pressure sits over the northern Great Lakes and a Rocky
Mountain low settles over Wyoming. By Tuesday afternoon, a 25 to 30
kt llj sets up over central SD. Winds at the sfc will gust 30 to 35
mph. Overnight, these features shift slightly east and upper ridging
builds into the Plains. The southerly sfc flow and llj will bring
chances for showers and thunderstorms into Wednesday morning. Then
the low pressure wave moves into South Dakota for Wednesday
afternoon with an upper low moving into ND amplifying the precip
potential. Temperatures are forecast to top out in the 60s and 70s
on Wednesday under that ridge even with the clouds and rain.

Persistent south to southeast flow at the sfc and a fairly active
pattern of shortwaves and 700 mb to 500 mb lows will keep off and on
shower chances in the forecast into the weekend. While an active and
rather wet pattern is in place this week, nothing looks particularly
hazardous at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Brief breaks of VFR cigs this afternoon will fill back in by
Tuesday morning with MVFR/IFR cigs.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20