312
FXUS63 KABR 152350
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
650 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Northwest winds of 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph will
continue this evening across central and north central South Dakota
behind a cold front. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for all
counties west of Brown and Spink through early Friday morning.

- Another round of light rain moves into eastern SD and west central
MN this evening before exiting late tonight. Up to a tenth of an
inch of rain is possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 650 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

The main concern, other than the light shower activity along the
ND/SD border and over the Prairie Coteau/Sisseton Hills, is the
ongoing strong winds. A reinforcing round of strong winds will
move across northeastern SD/west central MN 03-11Z Friday. Gusts
on the eastern slopes of the Prairie Coteau may briefly gust at
or around 45mph. The ongoing Wind Advisory for much of central
SD continues until 09Z.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Gusty northwest winds continue to spread east today behind the sfc
cold front and with the upper trough. There have been a couple gusts
over 58 mph along and west of the Missouri in the clear air, better
mixing environment, but nothing widespread enough to merit an
upgrade. As the upper trough digs in more this evening, the 80 to
90kt jet will help keep the winds gusty overnight. Ensemble 90th
percentiles keep gusts to 50 mph over the Coteau and the Sisseton
Hills early Friday morning. Current NBM holds those gusts to around
40 mph, so did not expand the wind headlines farther east for now.

Another area of low clouds is wrapping around the low in northern ND
and pushing south into north central SD this afternoon. These clouds
are expected to expand and stick around most of the night. Some
additional sprinkles or light rain is possible in this
wraparound/deformation zone. Between the persistent winds and the
clouds, temperatures should not drop below freezing. Blended in hi-
res model guidance to push temps up a few degrees. Have lows in the
30s for tonight with Corson county approaching freezing as sfc high
pressure builds in from the west. Given the winds, decided not to go
with any frost headlines for tonight. However, Friday night/Saturday
morning will need another look for frost/freeze headlines. There are
still model differences in timing of a building ridge aloft and exit
of the sfc high that will influence Friday night`s lows.

Temperatures warm above normal starting Saturday with the ridge
aloft. Dry and warm conditions are then expected through the middle
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 650 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will lower to MVFR as thicker/lower clouds sink
in from the north. Winds gusting 33-43kts will slowly diminish
overnight, with VFR ceilings returning to all sites by 16Z
Friday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ Friday for SDZ003>005-
     009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...06