916
FXUS63 KABR 081759 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1159 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much above normal temperatures today, especially across central
  SD where readings in the 50s and 60s are expected. Cooler
  temperatures in the 40s further east.

- There is a slight chance (15-20%) for light rain/sprinkles
  across northern SD on Monday. There is also a chance (25-45%)
  for some precipitation Wednesday into Thursday but confidence on
  precipitation type is low.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1156 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 18Z TAFs.

Updated the forecast this morning to issue a dense fog advisory
for north central SD. Based on webcams, plus the lack of mixing
winds, felt a dense fog adv was needed.

UPDATE Issued at 535 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 354 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Stratus continues to sink southward across north central and
northeast SD. Many hi-res models picking up on this now and show the
clouds moving further southward into the CWA and persisting into
early afternoon potentially, especially in the James River valley.
Cloud movement is also within the surface boundary where lower-level
moisture is hung up. Of course, these clouds will play a part in the
high temperature forecast if they linger around longer into early
afternoon. Fog is possible as well from the James River valley
westward towards the Missouri River through the morning hours,
although don`t see any evidence of anything yet in our CWA. Further
north across ND, visibility is down in some locations in light fog.

The stationary front draped from north central SD into southeast SD
will begin moving eastward today as a warm front and is forecast to
be near I-29 by evening. Warmest 925mb temps reside across central
SD today with readings from +13C to +15C by 00Z this evening.
Further east closer to the warm front, more like +5C to +6C. So,
quite a spread of temps across the CWA today, with the warmest
readings in the 60s across central SD to the 30s and 40s over
northeast SD into west central MN. Again, areal coverage and
longevity of stratus may affect these high temps in some locations.

On Monday we`ll see a weak surface low moving eastward across
southern SD as a cold front drops south through the region. Models
continue to show rather scant precipitation values as this system
moves through, generally remaining dry or only up to 0.01 as a 90th
percentile amount over north central SD in the NBM. Will leave only
slight chances (15-20%) for measurable across northern SD during the
day Monday. Given surface temperatures likely above freezing and
warming into the 40s, precip type looks to be mostly light
rain/sprinkles if anything were to materialize.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 354 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

After a cold front moves through SD Monday, a surface high pressure
moves in overnight and stays through Tuesday night. This high
pressure, as well as drier air aloft, helps to keep precipitation
out of central and northeastern SD. At the same time, temperatures
will cool sightly to be 10-15 degrees warmer than normal through the
rest of the week.

Wednesday into Thursday, an upper-level trough is moving into the
state. This then helps a surface low move over SD Wednesday into
Thursday. However, models continue to vary the location of this low,
as some have the low move into southwest SD and others have the low
in northern NE. Depending on where the low moves through, the
precipitation chances in the models also shifts north or south.
Models that follow a more northerly track have more chances for snow
to occur, such as the ECMWF members showing mainly snow for towns
across central and northeastern SD rather than rain. Other models,
with a more southerly track, show more rain and rain/snow mix
Wednesday changing over to snow during the night. With the
differences in the models, there continues to be lower confidence in
the location/track of the precipitation as well as the precipitation
types. An eye will need to be kept on upcoming model runs to see if
there is more consensus or if they start to trend towards specific
outcomes.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1156 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

IFR cigs will continue impacting the terminal of KABR through the
early afternoon hours before lifting. The low cigs may move into
KATY later this afternoon, however confidence is low. Otherwise,
prevailing VFR conditions can be expected for the reminder of the
TAF period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...SD