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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD
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069 FXUS63 KABR 041825 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 125 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Slight Risk for severe weather is in effect along and south of US Highway 12. Areas to the north of US Highway 12 are under a Marginal Risk. Storms are expected to initialize during the late afternoon and continue through the evening. Large hail of 1-2" in diameter will be the main threat, with wind gusts of 60 mph as a secondary threat. Can`t rule out a tornado over south central South Dakota or heavy rainfall leading to flooding. - A brief weekend warmup will push high temperatures into the low to mid 90s across the forecast area on Saturday and Sunday, around 10 to 15 degrees above normal for early June. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 124 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026 Some spotty showers and storms have been moving through central SD this morning and will continue to move east into the early afternoon. While these have mainly been just showers and some occasional lightning, a stronger cell or two has had some dime sized hail from them at times. A cold front is currently sitting over south central and northeastern SD, and will be slowly moving south through the afternoon and tonight. Some warm, moist air continues to move into the state as the afternoon heat helps to destabilize the atmosphere. Models are showing MLCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg over central and northeastern SD, with the highest instability over south central SD. The scattered morning showers and storms could help to stabilize the atmosphere over central SD into the afternoon, which could decrease the ability for storms to develop during the late afternoon. The storms that do develop will likely turn into discrete supercells from shear values of 35-45kts late this afternoon into the evening over central SD. These storms will be moving east through the evening over northeastern SD. Another cluster of storms is forecast to develop again over south central SD and move east over east central through the overnight hours. Large hail will be the primary threat with mid-level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km helping to get hail with the diameter of 1-2 inches to the surface. Additionally, with DCAPE around and above 800 J/kg, strong to damaging wind gusts from the storms will be possible. Models are showing a lack of low level shear over central and northeastern SD that would help tornadoes to develop. However, there is a little bit over south central SD, making it so that a tornado or two can not be ruled out. Storm motions for the storms are forecast to be around if not faster than 15kts, which will reduce the chances for slow moving storms. However, the flooding potential is still there with higher PWAT values, the chance for storms to move over the same areas, and if over areas that have recieved a lot of rain over the past couple of days. There could be some lingering showers over south central and northeastern SD Friday morning after the storms move out overnight. There should be a break from severe storm Friday, though some isolated to scattered showers and storms could develop Friday afternoon over northeastern SD. The lack of shear over northeastern SD Friday will help to keep the storms from becoming long lived and supercellular in nature. The potential for storms to develop will decrease once the sun sets. Friday night through Sunday, and upper-level ridge will start building and moving over SD. This ridge will help to keep precipitation out for a bit, giving us break from storms and rain for a day or two. Under this ridge, warmer temperatures will be moving in, which will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Sunday afternoon into Monday, a surface trough will be moving over SD. This surface trough will bring the next chance for storms and showers to occur Sunday evening into Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG As of 17z, some scattered showers and storms are moving east across central SD. MVFR to VRF conditions will be occurring through most of the afternoon and tonight, though conditions could decrease at times as there is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms to develop late this afternoon through the night across central and northeastern South Dakota. Fairly light and variable winds will continue through the afternoon at the terminals, though KPIR could see some gusty winds up to 20kts late this afternoon into the evening, mainly from when storms try to move through. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...12 AVIATION...12 |
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NWS Aberdeen, SD (ABR) Office Forecast Discussions.
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