000
FXUS63 KABR 050211 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
911 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 907 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

No changes planned to the tonight period forecast. Showers over
north central South Dakota (a couple of sprinkles down across
central South Dakota) are moving over into northeast South Dakota.
Scattered coverage of clouds back to the northwest of the CWA,
heading this way. So, after these showers get out of the CWA, and
clouds decrease in coverage, low level CAA picks up and
temperatures should dip into the 40s over most of the CWA.

UPDATE Issued at 602 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

Key Messages:

* Increasing northwest winds Thursday with gusts of 30 to 40 mph.
* Cooler temperatures through the short term period, with the
  potential for frost across parts of central South Dakota late
  Thursday night.

The upper level pattern will feature a broad trough over the central
part of the country tonight through Thursday night, with
strengthening energy over the Northern Plains during the Thursday
night time period.

At the surface, a frontal boundary will track across the CWA
tonight, and may be the focus for a few rain showers across the far
northern CWA. Behind the front, a tightening pressure gradient will
develop, allowing for northwest winds to gust into the 30 to 40 mph
range Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. This flow will also
usher cooler air into the region, with daytime highs on Thursday
around 5 to 10 degrees below normal for this time of year. With the
cooler flow continuing into Thursday night, will also see some cold
temperatures across parts of the area, especially central South
Dakota. As a trough/frontal boundary wraps southward over the far
eastern CWA late Thursday night, may see some precipitation occur,
and temperatures may be just cold enough for a mix of rain/snow
across the higher elevations. As high pressure approaches central
South Dakota during the same time, some areas may see the first
frost of the season.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s. High
temperatures on Thursday will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Lows
Thursday night will be in the mid to upper 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

Key Messages:

* Frost/Freeze conditions Friday night into Saturday morning with
  temperatures falling to near 30 degrees.
* Dry weather to continue, except for slight chances (around 20%)
  over far northeast Friday 12-18Z and again Wednesday night)

We`ll realize our lowest afternoon temperatures Friday, topping out
in the mid 40s to low 50s. The consistency is impressive for this
time period, which is leading to higher than normal confidence in
temperatures through the weekend. 850mb temperatures Friday will
range from 0 to nearly -3C with winds continuing out of the north to
northwest at the surface and aloft.

Expect the 500mb trough set up over Ontario and extending through MN
and much, if not all of SD and NE at 12Z Friday to slide east
through the day. Lingering clouds are expected especially over
northeastern SD and w central MN, closest to the exiting trough.
Otherwise we`ll see improving conditions as the surface high settles
in from eastern MT/WY. This high will shift to our south across
NE/KS Friday night, with a ridge extending up through our entire
forecast area and much of ND. This will set the stage for our lowest
temperatures so far this fall, with lows hovering near 30 degrees
across much of the area. Our west central MN counties may stay above
freezing by a couple of degrees. Headlines may be needed for
freezing conditions as the time nears. These temperatures are still
about 10-15 degrees above record lows for this time of year
(typically in the teens to near 20 degrees).

Temperatures will be on the increase Saturday as warm air advection
returns as the surface ridge exits into MN. Look for 850mb
temperatures to rise back into positive values by 18Z. While the
500mb trough will continue to over much of the eastern half of the
nation, the ridge over the western U.S. will shift across the
Rockies and into the Northern Plains for the latter half of the
weekend and first half of the work week. Expect temperatures to
become near or slightly above normal Sunday through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 602 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will prevail across the area through the TAF
period. Look for northwest winds to increase into the 15 to 30
knot range Thursday morning.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...Dorn