700
FXUS63 KABR 110113 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
813 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong southerly winds gusting up to 25-35 miles per hour will
  continue to impact northeastern South Dakota into western
  Minnesota with elevated fire weather conditions into early
  this evening. Localized gusts up to 45 mph along will be
  possible on the eastern side of the Prairie Coteau as well.

- Some blowing dust and chaff from harvest can also be expected
  into this evening, potentially creating some visibility
  reductions at times.

- The pattern changes to cooler temperatures Sunday, along with
  increasing chances for rain next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 803 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

As of 8pm, temps have dropped into the 60s to upper 70s, warmest
over south central SD and coolest over north central SD. Winds
are continuing to diminish with speeds between 10-15mph,
highest along the eastern slopes of the Coteau. The center of
the surface low is currently over the Canadian/ND/MN border with
its cold front extending through north central SD and surface
trough just ahead of it. This cold front will continue to track
southeastward slowly across the region overnight and finally
exit our far southeastern CWA late Sunday morning or midday. As
the fropa tracks southeastward, winds will continue to switch
out of the north and northeast. Post frontal stratus clouds will
also track east and northeast across the region tonight. No
major changes made to the forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 612 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Updated discussion for the 00Z TAFs below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 118 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

At 1 PM CDT, skies are sunny and temperatures are warming through
the 80s. Winds across central and north central South Dakota are
southerly 5 to 15 mph, with some gustiness at times up to around 20
mph. Across northeast South Dakota into west central Minnesota,
winds are south-southwesterly 15 to 25 mph with gusts well in excess
of 35 mph; especially in the downslope-favored regions in the lee of
the Coteau, where gusts have been between 45 and 55mph. Relative
humidity values across central and north central South Dakota are
crashing, down below 25 percent. Along and east of the
Minnesota/South Dakota border, relative humidity values have been
slower to diminish, given the higher levels of gulf-sourced moisture
in the mixing layer/PBL.

There is a cold front analyzed just starting to enter Corson/Dewey
Counties (far nw corner of the CWA). Short term guidance has this
frontal boundary slowly sinking southeast across the CWA from now
through Sunday afternoon. Low forecast confidence in the temperature
forecast on Sunday, while this frontal passage is occurring. Suffice
it to say, the southeastern third of forecast zones should be warmer
than the northwestern two-thirds of the CWA. Behind this fropa,
temperatures will be cold (closer to climo normal) over the entire
CWA for Monday through Wednesday. Beyond that, the low level thermal
advection pattern should change enough to allow some warming over,
at least, the western half of the CWA for the latter portion of next
week.

The precipitation potential keeps changing from day to day, with
what previously looked like a decent soaking rain early this
upcoming week, is fizzling out. With the western CONUS upper level
trof that`s developing, there could certainly be a few transient
shortwaves bringing short-lived rain chances to the region between
Sunday night and Wednesday. But, ensembles and deterministic
solutions are not on the same sheet of music regarding how to
evolve/break down the Rex block pattern that will develop over the
next few days. Amongst the many potential outcomes, there are
currently two scenarios that stand out the most. In one scenario,
energy rounding the top of the western CONUS upper level ridge will
be sufficient to kick out the closed low over the intermountain
west, bringing a period of precipitation potential and cooler
conditions during the second half of next week. The other scenario
holds the Rex block in place, keeping this region generally dry and
warm from Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 612 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR cigs are forecast through the end of the TAF period with
post frontal stratus clouds moving in from the west through
Sunday morning at all TAF sites. Winds will diminish with
sunset, however, gusts of 15-20kts remain possible tonight at
KMBG and KATY. A cold front lies over north central SD into ND
and will continue to track slowly southeast through the region.
This will continue to switch winds at terminals from the south
to the north-northeast through Sunday. Beyond the TAF period,
ceilings decrease to MVFR/IFR late Sunday evening into Sunday
night associated with post frontal light rain that will track
east/northeast across the region.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MMM
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...MMM