443
FXUS63 KABR 072307 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
607 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy (15 to 20 mph) for some areas and still dry Thursday
  with above normal temperatures.

- Above normal temperatures continue through Saturday, peaking
  with highs in the 80s to around 90 degrees on Saturday.

- Elevated fire weather conditions could materialize any day
  through Saturday.

- Pattern change to cooler temperatures Saturday night into
  Sunday along with increasing chances for moisture Sunday and
  Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 606 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

The forecast remains on track this evening. No major changes are
planned.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 107 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

At 1 PM CDT, skies are sunny. Temperatures are warming through the
60s and 70s. Surface high pressure is over the region, resulting in
either light and variable winds (central South Dakota) or 5 to 15
mph northwest winds with occasionally higher gusts. The dryness of
the air, combined with sunshine, is yielding a drop in relative
humidity into the 25 to 40 percent range.

Ensemble clusters analysis plus deterministic model output suggests
this upper level ridge over the west/trof over the east flow pattern
will persist through tomorrow/Thursday before things start
a-changin`. Thursday night/Friday upper level energy will begin
carving out an upper level trof over the west coast that looks to
stay put for several days, while pumping up an upper level ridge
over the eastern CONUS. This CWA will see upper level steering winds
transition from their current northwest flow orientation to more of
a southwest flow trajectory heading into Friday. The pattern is
expected to become a blocking flow pattern (western CONUS Rex-block
configuration) by next Monday, at which point, won`t be putting much
faith in any solution the models come up with for Monday through the
end of the forecast period, as models (including ensembles
clustering) tend to not be able to resolve Rex block patterns all
that well. There is usually quite a large range in potential
outcomes generated by numerical models once a blocking pattern
enters into potential flow pattern modeling.

Suffice it to say, temperatures will be quite warm (2+ 850hpa
standard deviations above normal) for October, this coming Friday
and Saturday. Then, depending on the timing of it all, a cold front
pushing through the CWA will turn things sharply colder (1-2 850hpa
standard deviations below normal) for Sunday and Monday of next
week. Sunday and Monday are also when the current precipitation
chances (widespread 30-55 percent) stand out the most in the
forecast, when some of this western CONUS upper level trof energy is
supposed to lift out onto the central/northern plains.

Beyond that, will be watching fire weather things for the rest of
this week into Saturday, as currently forecast afternoon rh values
over the next few days are expected to be too high. Did
collaborate slightly stronger winds/gusts and lower dewpoints on
Saturday against my east and south neighbors. Saturday could end
up being a fire weather headline day out ahead of that cold
frontal passage. Still plenty of greened up fine fuels across
the CWA, what with the marked improvement in drought conditions
(compare U.S. drought monitor changes between August 18 and
September 29). But, no more corn sweat to help the boundary
layer out. When cold fronts come through this time of year, it
gets quite dry in the boundary layer in their wake, and
ensemble-based rh forecasts tend to over-represent afternoon rh
in these season changing regimes. Something to keep an eye on
from today through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 606 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through Thursday afternoon.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...20
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...20