678
FXUS63 KABR 090517 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1217 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Slight (Level 2 of 5) to Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for
  severe thunderstorms is in effect Thursday afternoon through
  evening for north central South Dakota and parts of central
  South Dakota west of the Missouri River. Hail of 1 inch in
  diameter and wind gusts of 60 to 70 miles per hour will be the
  main threats.

- A slight cooldown is expected today and Thursday, with
  widespread near-normal high temperatures (upper 70s to 80s).
  A warming trend begins by the end of the week, and highs may
  potentially hit triple digits over the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 06Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 850 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

A few models are indicating patchy fog potential late tonight
into early Thursday morning across the eastern CWA, so added
mention of this. Most probable areas appear to be in/near the
James and Big Sioux river valleys. With mostly clear skies
overnight and light winds, along with wet soils, certainly not
out of the question. Otherwise, no big changes to the forecast
for the overnight hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 118 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

There area some low clouds over portions of central and northeastern
SD this morning. The lower clouds should dissipate by the afternoon
and mostly clear skies will be around during the afternoon. While
there is some instability over central SD this afternoon, there is a
capped environment  over central and northeastern SD that should
keep storms and showers from developing during the evening into
tonight. Temperatures today and Thursday will be around normal for
this time of the year, with highs in the 70s to 80s.

A frontal boundary will be moving into SD Thursday afternoon through
the night with some warm, moist temperatures sneaking in during the
day. There will be higher instability Thursday afternoon over
northwestern SD, with CAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg, which will help
with storm development as the frontal boundary pushes through late
Thursday afternoon. During the evening, the environment for storms
will weaken, with CAPE values dropping into the 1000 J/kg and even
lower during the overnight hours. The storms will move east into
central and northeastern SD into the weaker environment which will
start to weaken the storms and cause them to dissipate. High-res
models are still forecasting scattered storms to move into north
central SD and some area west of the Missouri River Thursday evening
before dissipating as they move east. There is a slight (level 2 out
of 5) to marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for these storms to become
severe over north central SD. The primary hazards in these storms
will be hail up to 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts of 60-70 mph.

An upper-level ridge will be starting to develop over SD Friday into
the weekend and early next week. This ridge will be pushing warm,
humid air up into central and northeastern SD through the weekend
and onward. Temperatures warm to be around 5-15 degrees warmer than
normal on Saturday, with highs in the upper 80s to upper 90s. Then
they will increase even more Sunday and Monday to be in the mid 90s
to mid 100s. Heat index values will get up into the mid 90s to
triple digits Sunday and Monday. There is a 30-50% chance for heat
risk to reach Major category Saturday, with a 75-95% chance Sunday
and Monday. There is also a 25-45% chance of the Heat Risk to get
into the Extreme category Monday. Those who are sensitive to heat as
well as those who lack cooling and hydration through the day could
develop heat illnesses. The ridge and high pressure will also help
to keep storms and showers from developing and moving into central
and northeastern SD through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

There could be some sub-VFR vsbys in fog at KABR/KATY (perhaps
even some spotty MVFR stratus/cigs) by sunrise Thursday.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are currently forecast during the TAF
period. Closer to the end of the TAF valid period, some
showers/storms out west may be rolling into the KMBG/KPIR
terminals. Have introduced some PROB30 mention for this
potential.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...10