901
FXUS63 KABR 092010
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
210 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Weak system brings small chances (20-30%) for light rain over
north central and northeast SD and west central MN Tuesday evening.
Any rainfall amounts likely less than 0.25in.

- Brief cool down Wednesday through Friday, with highs only in the
30s and 40s on Thursday. Above normal temperatures likely returning
by Sunday/Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

The breezy/gusty northwest winds across the region this afternoon
will become light and variable this evening as surface high pressure
builds in. Skies look to be mostly clear at least for a good portion
of the night, but there are indications in high clouds thickening at
least over western/central SD by 12Z Tuesday. Given what appears to
be a fairly good radiational cooling night, decided to blend in
lower-end NBM10 guidance for temps, while dropping an additional
degree or two in the James River valley. There are also hints of fog
development as well, mainly in the James and Big Sioux valleys. Not
a solid signal amongst model visibility grids, but seemed enough to
mention just "patchy" wording. Soundings are rather dry right off
the surface, so may be more ground/shallow fog potential than
anything else.

Another mild day in store for Tuesday, although temps aloft at 850mb
are slightly cooler, and resulting high temp forecast is more into
the mid/upper 50s to low 60s. Decided to blend in about 50% NBM90
temps as well given the trend recently. Did not go all-in with NBM90
given what models are showing to be some mid/high level cloudiness
across the region which may put a damper of full heating potential.

Focus then shifts to the weak surface low moving southeast through
the region Tuesday into Tuesday night. Surface low track is
basically right over the CWA, with apparent best precip chances over
the favorable northern side of the low. Given that, REFS probability
for measurable (>=0.01in) is about 20-50% along and north of a line
from MBG to ATY. Inherited NBM PoPs still show about 20-30% chances
in the same area, although did some massaging to the grids to fill
holes and expand southward just a tad. Any rainfall that does
materialize will be very light and likely be less than 0.25in.

Colder temps still in store for Wednesday and especially Thursday as
a lobe of colder air aloft moves south out of Canada and into the
Northern Plains/Great Lakes region. The Dakotas is on the western
end of the brunt of cold, but will still see 850mb temps likely
dropping below zero C across the eastern CWA. Grand Ensemble 850mb
temps still showing -2C to 0C from the James River eastward on
Thursday. Forecast highs on Thursday are still in the upper 30s for
eastern portions of the CWA. Still seeing signs of a warming trend
again (although perhaps delayed 12-24hrs) Saturday and especially by
Sunday/Monday with highs forecast back in the 50s to near 60 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1128 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Northwest
surface winds today will become light and variable tonight,
before turning southerly Tuesday morning.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...TMT