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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD
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100 FXUS63 KABR 181315 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 815 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler today, but above normal heat and humidity returns Sunday and Monday. Heat index values will be in the upper 90s to 100s over much of the region. - The next chances for precipitation will be development along a cold front moving through the area on Sunday night. A Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) has been issued for Sunday across areas of north central and northeast SD into west central MN. - Temperatures look to return to normal to perhaps just below normal by mid-week next week, with highs in the 80s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 743 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Looking through area webcams, only able to pick up smoke/fog at Highmore, and maybe at Aberdeen otherwise no real issues with visibility as we start to mix out. Radar trends out of Rapid City are decreasing returns, with a mainly mid level deck riding up along the top of the ridge. Maybe a sprinkle at most in Stanley/Dewey counties as NAM BUFKIT indicates cloud decks are up around 10-12kft. Cloud cover will have a somewhat limiting effect on temperatures for today, in concert with the slightly cooler airmass in place and the `less efficient at mixing` easterly low level flow. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1259 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026 As of 1 AM CDT, temperatures around the area are in the upper 60s to low 70s with winds out of the north to northeast, generally less than 10 mph. There will be some smoke across far northeast SD and west central SD today resulting in some reductions of visibility. This will help keep temperatures slightly lower, so reduced highs in this area accordingly. Highs will be cooler today, in the 80s to low 90s, before warmer temperatures and heat index values return Sunday and Monday. Some limited precipitation chances return Sunday as well, with a 20- 45% chance of thunderstorms. The first round will be in the morning across north central SD and the second round will be across central and northeast SD generally north of I-90 during the evening and early overnight hours. The next chance for precip is expected to be Wednesday and mainly in south central SD. As mentioned, heat returns Sunday and Monday with highs in the 90s to near 100 and heat index values in the upper 90s to low 100s. Relative humidity values this afternoon around and west of the Missouri River will fall into the 20-30% range, but since winds aren`t abnormally strong, fire danger remains low to moderate. This could chance Monday as forecast highs get into the 30-35 mph range across northern SD. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 613 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...07 DISCUSSION...13 AVIATION...20 |
Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Aberdeen, SD (ABR) Office Forecast Discussions.
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