276
FXUS63 KABR 061951
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
151 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 40 to 80% chance of precipitation with the developing
  system through tonight.

- Snow accumulations are grouping into a couple of areas. One area
  of ongoing banded snowfall is concentrated across north central
  South Dakota and is expected to persist for several more hours.
  The other area of potential snowfall is expected to develop
  later this evening and spread over into northeast South Dakota
  and west central Minnesota. Snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches,
  with locally higher amounts, are expected.

- Freezing rain and sleet is also expected by early this evening,
  mainly across parts of the James River valley onto the Prairie
  Coteau further east into Minnesota, persisting into the early
  overnight hours before changing over to snow. Ice accumulations
  of a light glaze to around a tenth of an inch, with locally
  higher amounts possible, are expected.

- Above freezing temperatures return Saturday (Highs 40s to mid
  50s). Highs Sunday 25 to 30 degrees above normal.

- Precipitation chances of 40-70 percent for Monday night into
  Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

At 2 PM CST, skies are cloudy and temperatures are in the 20s. Winds
are northwest at 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. A preliminary
deformation band that formed earlier this morning across western
into north central South Dakota, started producing snowfall all the
way to the ground between 10 AM and 11 AM this morning and now, a
bonafide deformation zone banded snow event is under way. The parent
low for this is still observed down across Colorado (associated
surface low has emerged and moved out to over central KS). Most
webcams are not showing much more than a half inch to an inch of
snow so far. But, much of the band of snow is occurring just outside
of webcam purview, and based off METARS underneath the heaviest
portion of the band (1/2sm to 3/4sm in snow), fully expecting this
thing to end up generating a swath of 3 or more inches of snow,
"with locally higher amounts possible". A short-fuseed Winter
Weather Advisory has been posted for this phenomenon until 8 PM CST.

Otherwise, the models/guidance continue to tighten their focus on
the rest of today`s/tonight`s winter weather event across mainly
northeast and east central South Dakota into west central Minnesota,
with slightly less snow amounts (now down to generally an inch or
less) but seeing the ice accumulation amounts coming up a little bit
(now up to between 0.10-0.20 inch of ice across parts of the Prairie
Coteau into west central Minnesota and continuing to see the timing
of all this delayed to the point that almost all of the freezing
rain, sleet and snow doesn`t get going across the eastern forecast
zones until ~23Z or later.

No noteworthy changes showing up in models/guidance for Saturday
through Friday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1136 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

A mix of MVFR/IFR cigs/visbies continue at this time. Northwest
winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts to ~30 knots are in full swing,
CWA-wide. In these cooling and drying northwest winds, fog is
departing, improving visibility conditions. IFR conditions will
remain common, though, at ATY into the overnight hours before any
improvement to MVFR or VFR is expected there. Waiting to see if
the column can saturate enough for any of the snow directly over
KMBG to reach all the way down to the ground before snowfall
shifts off to the south and east. KPIR could be into some light
snow by 00Z, only lasting a couple of hours there, as well. Then,
snowfall should be reaching over toward the KABR terminal, mainly
between ~23Z and 04Z. But, KATY still looks like ground zero for
rain/freezing rain, by 00Z, before the potential for precip type
to change over to sleet and snow later in the evening, with
precipitation chances carrying all the way through to between 06Z
and 09Z Saturday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for SDZ008-
     020>023.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CST /6 PM MST/ this evening
     for SDZ003-004-009-015-033.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM CST Saturday for SDZ006-007-
     011-018-019.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...10