245
FXUS63 KABR 071138
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
538 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dense fog will continue through mid morning mainly between
  the Missouri River and James River. Patches of light icing in
  freezing fog will be possible.

- Temperatures today through next Wednesday are forecast to warm
  up 10 to 20 degrees above normal for early November, with
  highs in the 50s and low 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1248 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Fog has developed over the Missouri River and areas just to the east
during the early nighttime hours. This fog will be spreading east
through the night into Saturday morning. A dense fog advisory has
been issued into Saturday morning as visibilities could drop below 1
mile at times in areas with the fog. Additionally, some areas that
experience the fog will have temperatures below freezing, which
could cause some freezing fog and localized areas of potentially
slick conditions. Southwestern winds west of the Missouri River will
keep the fog from spreading west. These southwest winds will spread
east through the night and will help erode the edge of the fog as it
moves east into the morning.

Through the morning into the afternoon, the winds will become more
westerly and will start to speed up. Wind gusts over most of central
and northeastern SD will be between 20-25 mph, with stronger wind
gusts up to 30 mph over Corson and Dewey counties and the eastern
edge of the Sisseton Hills north of HWY 12. Minimum relative
humidity values will be between 40-50% over Corson and Dewey
counties, and with the stronger winds and dry vegetation, the lower
humidity values will cause high Grassland Fire Danger Index values.
The higher humidity values and slightly lower wind speeds will keep
the Grassland Fire Danger Index values in moderate category for the
rest of central and northeastern SD.

Warmer air will be coming on the southerly and westerly winds today
through Monday. This will warm temperatures to be about 10-20
degrees warmer than normal for this time of the year, with highs in
the 50s to low 60s. Models show a frontal boundary move through on
Monday, which will turn the winds and start bringing in some colder
air. This cooler air won`t cool things too much, but will cool
temperatures over the following days to be around normal. While the
front will move cold air in and turn winds to be from the northwest,
the lack of moisture in the atmosphere will help to keep
precipitation from developing. The next chance for some isolated
rain showers looks to be Tuesday evening into Wednesday, though it
is only about 10-20% chance over northeastern SD. This is because
the models vary if anything does develop and the timing of it.
Models will likely change what will happen, so an eye will need to
be kept on the models if they change or come to an agreement.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 538 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Fog has shifted east from around PIR/MBG during the early
overnight hours to ABR and off an on at ATY. Expect LIFR
ceilings/vis to continue until 15Z before slowly improving to
MVFR by 16Z. Expect VFR conditions at all locations 17Z through
the rest of the forecast period. Low level wind shear is
possible late this evening into the early overnight hours as
winds just above the surface near 35-40kts.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for SDZ004>006-
     009-010-016>018-034-036-037-051.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...06