473
FXUS63 KABR 100642
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1242 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The chance for precipitation Wednesday night into Thursday has
  lowered to 15-25% as models have trended the precipitation to
  the south. Confidence on precipitation type is low.

- Temperatures will be fairly warm through the week and weekend,
being 10-20 degrees warmer than normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1242 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

As of 06z, a few lines of light sprinkles that were over central
and northeastern SD have moved out of the area. High surface
pressure will be moving in through the remainder of the night and
through the day today. With this high pressure, precipitation will
stay out of central and northeastern SD through the day into
Wednesday. Temperatures will be slightly cooler than they have been
over the past few days, but they will still be 10-15 degrees warmer
than normal today.

During the day Wednesday, low surface pressure moves into WY and
slowly starts to move east towards SD. Wednesday night this low
pressure is forecast to move into southwestern SD and northeastern
NE. Over the past few model runs, the models have slowly shifted
this low and its precipitation south, with the low currently
forecast to travel east along the border of SD and NE. Early
Thursday morning, the models show the low interacting with moisture
aloft developing precipitation over mainly southeastern SD. Because
of this shift, most of the precipitation is currently forecast to
miss a majority of central and northeastern SD.

Other than the models shifting precipitation chances to the south,
the models are also varying what type of precipitation could be
occurring if there is any reaching the ground. Some models have WAA
aloft and slightly warmer temperatures at the surface leading to
rain for most of the precipitation. Other models show the warm air
cooling below freezing before the moisture moves in, causing snow to
fall. Then other models show rain changing to a rain/snow mix before
transitioning to snow then rain again as temperatures warm through
the day Thursday. The variability in the models leads to lower
confidence in precipitation type and timing over central and
northeastern SD, but if the models` southward trend comes to
fruition, then it might not matter as much because precipitation
will not be in the area. Either way, this will need to be watched in
upcoming model runs. QPF amounts look light right now with this
precipitation, and might lead to no precipitation accumulations or a
light dusting, sprinkle, or glaze to accumulate. If this does occur,
then it could lead to some slick surfaces during the Thursday
morning commute.

After the low pressure moves out of the state, some higher pressure
and drier air aloft move in. This helps to keep precipitation out of
central and northeastern SD through the weekend. Other than some
stronger temperature advection around the low pressure Wednesday
night into Thursday, temperatures will remain rather consistent
through the week and weekend, being 15-20 degrees warmer than normal.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1028 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Expect VFR conditions to continue over MBG/PIR. MVFR ceilings
across eastern ND and the northern half of MN are expected to push
into ATY overnight through around 15Z Tuesday (and clip ABR
briefly 08-12Z). Winds out of the northwest will diminish late
Tuesday afternoon into the evening hours at MBG/PIR, and shift
out of the south. This transition will be occur closer to 06Z
Wednesday over eastern SD/ATY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...06