723
FXUS63 KABR 071103
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
603 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy dry conditions today with above normal temperatures.

- Above normal temperatures continue through the work week,
  peaking Saturday, with highs in the 80s to around 90
  degrees.

- Pattern change to cooler temperatures and increasing chances
  for moisture early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 602 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

UPDATE |for AVIATION discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

We`re about 6C cooler at 850mb today compared to yesterday, with
lighter and less organized low level flow. Thus will stick with NBM
for highs today despite its underperformance over the last 48 hours.

A mid level warm advection push may provide for some elevated
instability Thursday. NBM has some low POPs/mention of rain showers
in central South Dakota. More probable is a mid level (5kft) cloud
deck, and even thats just been removed from the latest RRFS BUFKIT
profiles. Warm air advection continues into Friday, and as with most
warm advection regimes, confidence on timing how warm it gets aloft
48+ hours from now has some uncertainty. The 25th-75th percentile
range in high temperatures is 5 to 8 degrees for Friday.

Latest GEFS takes a significant leap in comparison to 24 hours
ago, well into 2 standard deviations above climo with a mean of
+24C at 850mb. With about a 4C increase, this would lend greater
confidence in "just shy of" record temperatures for Saturday.
Current NBM however, falls short of recorded by about 5 to 10
degrees. The 25th to 75th percentile range is generally low for
Saturday, though north central South Dakota range is 7 to 10F as
a cold front may or may not be moving in thereabouts.

The strength/timing of the cold advection that follows is also quite
uncertain, with a 15 to 21 degree range in 25th-75th percentile
temperatures Sunday.

As for precipitation potential, some changes in regards to the upper
pattern which is transitioning to more of a split flow outcome in
the GFS/EC, with a cut off low over 4 corners region with a northern
stream wave that passes overhead still in a northwest flow mode. The
result is while we`ll still see the cooler air, the rather broad low
pressure system across the Northern Rockies then passes into the
Northern Plains. This more west to east trajectory and faster
progression ends up locking us out of the better moisture
return and leaves us with wrap around light rain on the
backside.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 602 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will continue through the period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...06