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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD
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977 FXUS63 KABR 221911 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 211 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a 20-40% chance for showers and thunderstorms during the day Sunday into early Sunday evening over central SD, expanding to northeastern SD/west central MN Sunday night while increasing to a 40-60% chance. - There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe weather Sunday evening night over much of central to northeastern SD. The main concerns will be golf ball size hail, wind gusts exceeding 60 mph, lightning, and brief heavy rainfall. - There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe weather Monday night. Threat include one inch hail and 60 mph. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 210 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A surface high pressure over the region is producing tranquil weather conditions across the CWA. The high pressure will shift eastward tonight, allowing for warm air advection and increasing LLM to move into the central part of the state. Various CAMS depict weak showers and thunderstorms developing in central-south central SD between 10-15Z. These storms may dissipate or move into northern Nebraska. However, there is a 20-25 percent chance the showers become a weak broken line associated with the WAA over central and north central SD. A good portion of the CWA is under a marginal risk for severe storms, mainly Sunday afternoon and evening. There are some signals among models with convection developing over south central ND around midday, or the juxtaposition of the warm front/cold front location. These storms may grow upscale into a cold pool MCS, tracking southeastward across the CWA. The instability and deep layer shear appears best along and west of the Highway 83, with a decent drop off further east. If an individual storm is able to tap into the instability, the severe threat may be golf ball size hail and wind gusts exceeding 60 mph. The precipitation potential placement reaches near two inches, with is an indication of locally heavy rainfall with some storms. The showers and thunderstorms should exit the CWA around 12Z, with mostly dry conditions and above average temperatures on Monday. A frontal boundary sliding southward Monday night will bring a 20 to 40 percent chance of thunderstorms. Some storms may produce quarter size hail and/or 60 mph winds. After a period of dry conditions midweek, another storm system will produce 30-45 percent chance of pcpn Friday night. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Prevailing VFR conditions can be for all terminals through the valid taf period. Will maintain a PROB30 for showers around the KPIR area between 11-15Z. More widespread showers and thunderstorms may impact KMBG toward the end of the taf period. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...17 AVIATION...17 |
Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Aberdeen, SD (ABR) Office Forecast Discussions.
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