153
FXUS63 KABR 221900
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
100 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Southerly winds gusting to 20 to 30 mph Monday shift to the
northwest with gusts to 40 mph Tuesday.

- A storm system midweek will bring the potential for snow on
Wednesday. Low confidence on the rain/snow line and snow amounts at
this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1258 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Scattered flurries continue in the Red River Valley and as far west
as the I-29 corridor this afternoon as indicated on the KATY ob. The
upper trough responsible finally pulls off to the east this evening
so it can wreak havoc in the northeast U.S. Uppper ridging builds in
from the west tonight.

Combined with south to southeast return flow winds on Monday, waa
will push high temperatures to near 50 along the I-90 corridor south
of Pierre. Across the east, though, raditional cooling over a snow
pack will drop temperatures tonight to near -10 in spots and only
rebound into the 20s for Monday`s highs. Dry westerlies aloft will
lead to lower RH west of the James Valley causing high grassland
fire danger. Tuesday still looks dry but windy as the jet increases
to 90 kts with a sfc low moving across North Dakota. Thermal packing
shows some significant caa from the north Tuesday. Would not be
surprised to see falling temps daytime Tuesday. Increased NBM winds
to 75th percentile, but that may be too low. Haven`t touched NBM
highs on Tuesday, but they may be too warm depending on timing of
that caa. Though pops are below a precip mention, also can`t rule
out some show showers with that arctic front. It might end up being
a low QPF/high pop kind of day before high pressure builds in from
the northwest Tuesday evening.

On Wednesday, a low tracks across SD/NE with a warm air advection
band of snow enforced by a potent shortwave trough. Median snow
accums remain around an inch, but the set up is supportive of a band
of 3 to 4 inches somewhere between Hwy 12 and Hwy 212 as indicated
by NBM90th QPF amounts. The wind forecast is trickier because of the
track of the low, but winter headlines of some sort need to be
considered over the next couple of days.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1258 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Monday morning.
KATY may still see some brief periods of flurries or MVFR cigs
this afternoon.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20