345
FXUS63 KABR 092011
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
211 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures in far northeastern South Dakota and west central
  Minnesota continue to slowly warm. Freezing rain will gradually
  change to just rain this afternoon.

- High winds are still anticipated for late this afternoon through
  the overnight. Peak wind gusts of 55 to 65 mph.

- Light snow showers this evening could result in brief periods of
  near blizzard conditions across the Sisseton hills and western
  Minnesota. Accumulations of an inch or two or less.

- Highs Friday and Saturday will be in the single digits to teens,
  coldest Sunday morning. Wind chill values Saturday and Sunday
  morning could be as low as -20 to -30 degrees.

- A few rounds of snow will be possible late this week into the
  weekend. Northeastern SD/west central MN has a 30-50% chance of
  1" of snow Thursday into Friday morning. Another band of snow
  may impact mainly central SD over the weekend, but there is
  still a lot of uncertainty in the track and amounts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 207 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Mild air has migrated into the James valley and the southern
Sisseton hills but has been stubborn in Roberts/Grant counties and
western Minnesota where winds are still southeasterly. Rain is
falling in the area however, and that should still effectively wet
down the snowpack enough that future winds will not be able to tap
into this. As for winds, only minor changes with latest set of
guidance though timing is a little narrower.

Focus is on snow potential for the northeast this evening. BUFKIT
profiles suggest initial moisture pivoting around the backside of
the clipper lacks ice in the dendritic growth zone. This is manly
through about 01 to 03Z depending on guidance, with ice available
thereafter. CAMS bring bands/pockets of light snow down so its
not the more traditional broad trowal, meaning winds plus the
snow will not present widespread blizzard potential, it will be
more hit and miss. Thus, went with a winter weather advisory for
northeast South Dakota and western Minnesota. Again, existing
snowpack will not be a factor in blowing/drifting, and conditions
will rely on the coverage of snow shower activity. After 08-09Z
the dendritic growth zone dries out again and by that point we are
also experiencing a drop off in winds.

Ridge of high pressure moves overhead for late morning Wednesday,
with the core of coldest air over the Red River valley into
Minnesota. There will be a tight temperature gradient from southwest
to northeast across the state. As the high moves off, we begin to
see the gradient shift east in the form of a warm front. Profiles
present another freezing rain scenario but this time mainly across
the Missouri valley and just west of the James valley. The warm nose
into the James valley isn`t warm enough for melting resulting in
snow this far east. NBM QPF is 1 to 2 tenths along the ND/SD state
line in north central South Dakota with lower values to the south. A
winter weather advisory has been issued in regards to this mixed
precipitation scenario.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 207 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

The pattern of the Northern Plains remaining on the front side of
the upper-level ridge over the western CONUS. With this setup, a
couple of jet streaks will move over the area, providing enough
divergence aloft to support precipitation Thursday through early
Friday. Model soundings indicate that snow is the most likely
precipitation type through the event, but there will be chances for
rain and freezing rain as well. The latter precip types could occur
with a de-saturation of the DGZ aloft during the event, which could
transition from ice formation to liquid formation aloft depending on
how cold temperatures at the top of the saturated layer remain.
Latest ensemble medians have broad coverage of 0.10"-0.20" in liquid
totals through Friday morning, with the highest totals over north
central into northeastern South Dakota. This will translate to
around 1"-2" across much of the forecast area, although varying snow
to liquid ratios (~10:1 over north central South Dakota ranging to
~15:1 over northeastern South Dakota) may create a disparity between
the highest liquid equivalent and highest snowfall locations. Latest
probability of at least two inches peaks over northeastern South
Dakota, ranging from 30 to 50 percent.

With this setup, a strong blast of cold air is expected to move into
the region Friday into Saturday. 850mb temperatures by Saturday
morning are expected to be in the teens below 0 Celsius, which is
below the 10th percentile for this time of year. The presence of
this cold air will lead to overnight lows at the surface below zero
Fahrenheit Friday and Saturday mornings. At these temperatures, wind
chills are expected to reach -20 degrees Fahrenheit in most of north
central and northeastern South Dakota, and potentially even approach
the Cold Weather Advisory Criteria of the northern counties of -30
degrees Fahrenheit. Friday morning is of particular concern, because
while temperatures are slightly warmer than Saturday morning,
northwesterly winds of 20-25 miles per hour gusting to 35 overnight
will counteract that difference. The latest long-range ensemble
guidance put the probability of hitting -30 degrees Fahrenheit for
the minimum overnight wind chill in northeastern South Dakota at 20-
40% on Friday morning, easing up to around 10-20% Saturday morning.

Yet another round of snow may impact the region this weekend, this
time being more banded with a swath of heavier precipitation totals.
There is still a lot of uncertainty remaining, but it is worth
noting that forecast snow totals have jumped up over the latest
forecast cycle. The latest NBM currently puts a band of 50%
probability to see 2" of snowfall accumulations, with a band of 20-
30% chance for up to 4".

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1135 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Freezing rain remains possible at ATY for the next hour at least
temporarily, as temperatures have already risen to 32 degrees and
will continue to change over to all rain through the rest of the
afternoon hours. MVFR ceilings across ND will begin to sink across
the area this afternoon, with MVFR ceilings expected from 20Z
through the rest of the period at ABR and ATY. VFR conditions are
expected to continue at PIR/MBG. The other main concern is strong
winds, in initially in the form of low level wind shear and then
gusting 40-50kts late this afternoon through at least this
evening, peaking at MBG/PIR from 20Z Tuesday-09Z Wednesday and at
ABR/ATY 00Z-09Z Wednesday.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for SDZ008-
     021.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM CST
     Wednesday for SDZ007-008-011.

     High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST Wednesday for SDZ006>008-011-
     018.

     High Wind Warning until 2 AM MST Wednesday for SDZ003-015.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Wednesday to
     noon CST /11 AM MST/ Thursday for SDZ003-004-009-010-
     015>017-033>037-051.

     High Wind Warning until 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ Wednesday for SDZ004-
     005-009-010-016-017-033>037-045-048-051.

     High Wind Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Wednesday
     for SDZ019>023.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM CST
     Wednesday for SDZ020>023.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for MNZ039-
     046.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM CST
     Wednesday for MNZ039-046.

     High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...06