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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD
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496 FXUS63 KABR 090120 AAB AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 820 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Record/near record temperatures today with highs in the 60s to low 70s. High to very high grassland fire danger across central SD into the early evening hours. - System affecting northern SD Monday/Monday night may bring around an inch of snow accumulation. Cooler on Monday behind a passing cold front tonight. - Another system for Tuesday/Tuesday night has the potential to bring around 1 to perhaps 3 inches of snow to the region. && .UPDATE... Issued at 811 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026 No changes planned to the tonight period. Surface cold front is analyzed up in western North Dakota, still an hour or two away from Bismarck. Short range/rapid update guidance is still progging this boundary to push south through this CWA between ~04Z and ~10Z. Monitoring cold-fropa wind-shift obs for strong sustained winds or gusts, as the low level CAA is, at least, moderately strong tonight and the 6-hourly pressure rises are on the order of 6-10hpa over the CWA. UPDATE Issued at 615 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026 See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 154 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026 West-southwest wind gusts are beginning to increase to 30-40mph across portions of the region, although it`s been noted winds have taken a bit longer to get gusty than originally anticipated. Also noting obs showing RH falling into the 23-30 percent range across central/south central SD. Will continue to monitor fire weather this afternoon and the elevated fire danger conditions across central SD. Cold front will drop south through the CWA overnight, entering northern SD between 03Z and 06Z, then likely clearing the CWA by 12Z Monday. Low-level cold air advection with northerly winds developing through the nighttime hours as we go from 925mb temps from +15C to +20C this afternoon, down to 0C to +5C (northern CWA) by Monday morning. Will see highs drop back down into the 40s and 50s for most areas, although the far southwest CWA may still see readings closer to 60 degrees. Low pressure will then move east-southeast across southern SD and NE Monday evening/overnight. Models have been consistent in showing a band of rain/snow (mostly snow) moving eastward across southern ND into northern SD for a few days now. Highest precip chances (50-60 percent) exist across the northern CWA Monday evening. Thermal profiles suggest mostly all snow closer to the ND/SD border, with potential for rain or rain/snow mix further south in the CWA. Highest NBM probability of 24-hr snowfall greater than an 1 inch lies just over the border across southwest/south central ND, where values range from about 40 to 55 percent. Across northern SD (north of Hwy 12) values are lower and generally range from 20 to 40 percent. WPC Super Ensemble Plumes generally have members showing around an inch or less accumulation for the northern CWA. Will then be watching another area of low pressure which looks to move eastward across the Plains Tuesday/Tuesday night. This system looks like it has the potential to be slightly stronger than the Monday system, but models/ensembles still not generating a huge amount of precip or anything like that. Again, it appears warm enough to where we will be dealing with mixed precip late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening before precip type potential becomes all snow. Current forecast and available data has the look and feel (for the time being) of a 1 to 3 inch-type event, but will continue to monitor strength trends. NBM probability of 24-hr snowfall 2 inches or greater ending at 18Z Wednesday is generally 20-40 percent across the CWA, so a stronger signal for 2 inches versus the Monday system. Super Ensemble Plumes reveal higher end scenarios are more in the 2 to 4 inch range. 90th percentile amounts off the NBM are actually more in the 4 to 6 inch range across the eastern CWA, so some trends to keep an eye on for sure as we approach Tuesday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 615 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. There may be a short period of low-level wind shear (LLWS) conditions at KMBG/KABR and KATY this evening and have inserted mention of this. Otherwise, westerly surface winds this evening will switch to a northerly direction overnight. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...10 DISCUSSION...TMT AVIATION...10 |
Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Aberdeen, SD (ABR) Office Forecast Discussions.
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