867
FXUS63 KABR 252334 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
634 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The next round of rain arrives this afternoon, continuing into
  Saturday morning. There is a 40-70% chance to see a quarter of
  an inch or more through Saturday along and east of the James
  River.

- Active pattern continues with additional chances for rain
  arriving Monday and continuing through Tuesday. There is a
  40-60% chance to see an inch of rain along the ND/SD border,
  with rainfall totals decreasing moving south.

- Expect temperatures near normal for the next few days, with
  highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Signs point towards a
  slight cooldown by mid-week next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 628 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Shortwave aloft moves overhead today, bringing about the return of
rain showers. This rain will move into central South Dakota late
this afternoon into the early evening before expanding into
northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota tonight. Showers
will linger along and east of the James River through at least
Saturday morning, finally exiting to the east by Saturday afternoon.
Light rain showers will be the main storm mode with this system, and
chances for thunder are fairly low (perhaps an intermittent flash of
lightning or two at best). With fairly light rain rates overall,
expectations are overall fairly low in terms of rainfall totals.
Through Saturday, areas between the James and Missouri Rivers will
see up to a tenth of an inch, while areas along and east of the
James River will see between a tenth to a quarter of an inch. Higher
end amounts for areas under the heaviest showers sit at around half
an inch (20-30% chance of exceedance over far eastern South Dakota
as well as over western Minnesota).

After rain moves out Saturday, a bit of a break from the rain will
be in order for Sunday. Partly cloudy skies will be overhead, but
much of the area will likely see some much-needed sun. The break
won`t last long however, as early next week, an upper-level trough
over the western CONUS will bring about the return of widespread
rain chances. With the latest 24 hours of model guidance, there has
been a notable shift north in the area of highest rainfall totals.
Now, the best chances to see over an inch of accumulation through
Tuesday are located in North Dakota, leaving a small area of 40-60%
along the state line. Chances decrease moving southward. Naturally
chances for half an inch have also decreased, now ranging from 70%
in the north (along and north of the US-12 stretch between Aberdeen
and Mobridge) to 40% over central and parts of northeastern South
Dakota and western Minnesota. Thunderstorms will be possible with
this system, and the best chances to see those will be Monday night
into early Tuesday morning. There remains some slight signal in
probabilistic models for severe weather potential, but that signal
has also decrease with the latest forecast cycle.

As the upper-level trough progresses eastward, a cooler airmass will
take hold of the region. There is a bit of disagreement on how the
depth of the trough will evolve, so current temperature trends cool
the region down slightly less than with previous forecasts. Still
expect temperatures to get a slightly below late-September normals
next week, with highs in the mid to upper 60s across the board. This
pattern transition will also provide dry conditions across the
forecast area once showers and storms move out Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 628 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Ceilings are bouncing around right now, a by product of daytime
heating/mixing. Eventually VFR/MVFR cigs will settle into IFR
cigs overnight, and rain showers will develop/spread over
portions of central and northeast South Dakota into west central
Minnesota. Prior to and after showers move through, there could
be a little bit of drizzle around. Late tonight, fog is expected
to develop in and west of the Missouri River valley region where
clouds clear off. Some reduced visibility in rain showers is
also possible later tonight into Saturday morning.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...10