043
FXUS63 KABR 120542 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1242 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A sharp cooldown is expected Saturday through early next week
  with highs in the 60s to low 70s. These temperatures are
  about 5 to 10 degrees below normal.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 06Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 441 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Just a quick update to expand POPs back into the
Watertown/Sisseton areas as high clouds shifting east reveals
some vigorous cu on Satellite, likewise the vigorous cu field
is also showing up on the Clear Lake SDSU mesonet webcam.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 112 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Added a few counties to today`s Red Flag Warning, covering all areas
along and south of Hwy 14. After the northwest winds increase behind
the sfc low, dewpoints behind the dry line to the south of the low
will not rise. That puts southern Hand county in min RH of 20 to 25
percent. While not hitting strict RH criteria in the added counties,
the 30 to 40 mph wind gusts are sufficiently high enough for high to
very high grassland fire danger and merited the headline.

Hi-res models continue to be less than impressed with storm chances
in northeast SD this evening keeping everything in west central MN
starting at 0z. Still, with dewpoints in the 60s ahead of the low
and steep lapse rates, if anything does develop around the cold
front, it will be severe. Looking at a relatively short window of
time, though, with the fropa. Strong winds and large hail look to be
the main threats, especially back in SD.

Much cooler, fall-like temperatures push in behind the low with
highs in the 60s to lower 70s. As another low moves into the Plains
Sunday and Monday, rain and clouds could suppress temperatures even
more, perhaps holding them in the 50s. There is a marginal risk on
Sunday for areas south of Hwy 12. That`s generally associated more
with a potential 30 to 40 kt llj and passing shortwaves Sunday night
as instability/forcing will be limited otherwise. Additional chances
for rain arrive on Wednesday before high pressure and upper ridging
build in for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast for all terminals with a north
northwest wind component. Isolated high-based
showers/sprinkles/virga are expected across the region during
the TAF valid period. Will make adjustments to TAFs as needed.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...10