131
FXUS63 KABR 060518 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1118 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures will continue (10 to 30 degrees)
  through at least Tuesday of next week. The warmest days will be
  Sunday and Monday where portions of south central SD will reach
  the upper 50s to low 60s.

- Wind gusts of 40-45 mph out of the west-northwest are expected
  over the eastern slopes of the Sisseton Hills this evening into
  the early overnight hours.

- Chances for moisture (20-40%) for the middle of next week, but
  confidence in model guidance is low. Current trends are for a
  weak system or two (low amounts of moisture) to move through the
  area.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 517 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

The forecast is mostly on track this evening. Winds may be a
little too high, too soon in advance of the caa with the back door
cold front. Will continue hourly tweaks as necessary.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 353 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Mid afternoon temperatures across the forecast area range from the
40s across northeast SD and west central MN to the low to mid 50s up
and down the James Valley to the mid 50s to low 60s across central
SD. Quite a remarkable warm air mass overhead for early February!
Unfortunately, this will be short lived, temporarily, as a cold
front is progged to push south through the area late tonight into
early Friday. This will usher in a noticeably cooler air mass to end
the work week on gusty north-northwest winds and a low probability
of a few sprinkles or flurries overnight into Friday.

This evening will remain rather quiet with temperatures falling back
into the 30s and 40s after sunset. A pre-frontal trough will first
slip south through the area between 02Z-05Z turning winds more
toward a north to northwest direction and increasing to 20-30 mph
that will carry through the overnight. While the wind direction
remains out of a westerly direction, a period of stronger downslope
winds are expected on the eastern slopes of the Prairie Coteau.
Gusts here could reach 45 mph or locally stronger. Once the
direction become more north-northwesterly and parallel to the
downslope area, roughly around 08Z-10Z Friday, the stronger gusts
are expected to diminish. The backdoor cold front is anticipated to
push into our eastern zones between 10Z-12Z and continue to sink
southwest through the mid morning hours. Cold air advection will
kick in behind the fropa with 925mb temperatures falling to between
-5C and -15C across northeast SD and west central MN from about mid
morning to mid afternoon. At sunrise, temperatures are expected to
still be in the upper 20s to mid 30s from the James Valley and
points east and then either remain steady trough mid to late morning
before slowly falling into the mid teens to mid 20s by late
afternoon. Central SD will see relatively warmer conditions during
the day with readings remaining in the 30s to near 40 degrees.

With the fropa and post-fropa, a few sprinkles or flurries can`t be
ruled out late tonight through Friday morning with the low stratus
developing and some instability developing within that cloud layer.
One interesting note in this process is there is a low probability
that some spots may see patchy drizzle or freezing drizzle depending
on the temperatures. Not confident at this time to put mention of it
in the forecast, but BUFKIT profiles across our eastern zones show
increasing low level saturation growing in depth. At this time, the
thinking is the depth of that saturation will be be shallow enough
to preclude any drizzle/freezing drizzle, but it is something that
will have to be monitored.

Milder air is still expected to return for the weekend into early
next week. Increasing low level southerly flow between high pressure
to our east and a stationary boundary/elongated low across the
western Dakotas and Northern High Plains will lead to a breezy
Saturday. This will help to draw in a warmer air mass as temperatures
in the 30s and 40s return. Guidance does prog a weak upper wave will
traverse through the region the middle of the weekend and push a
cold front through our forecast area. At this point, moisture levels
remain rather low so anticipate dry conditions will persist. But,
it`s something to keep an eye on. Beyond that, quasi-zonal flow
takes hold as the upper flow pattern becomes more split across the
CONUS by the middle of next week. Sunday into Monday look to remain
dry and very mild again with temperatures back into the 40s and 50s
with even some low 60s possible across south central SD. A couple of
weak passing upper waves will be possible the middle of next week
that could deliver some precipitation to the area. With that split
flow pattern in place, confidence is low on timing and locations of
any said precip.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1114 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

MVFR stratus is expanding south through North Dakota and northern
MN this evening. It should reach KMBG and KABR by 9z at the
latest. This is all associated with the arctic front and sfc high
pushing in Friday morning. Cigs are expected to slowly improve
from north to south between 18z Friday and 0z Saturday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...20
DISCUSSION...Vipond
AVIATION...20