357
FXUS63 KABR 130544
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1244 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms will continue to migrate across the CWA
  early this morning (70% chance of rain/weak storms). Showers
  could redevelop during the heat of the afternoon but are
  expected to remain sub-severe and short in duration (5-10%
  chance for moisture).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

CAMS indicate the area of rain showers and weak storms (outside of
the severe storm along the White River earlier) will continue to
progress east through the early morning hours, departing the eastern
CWA around 12Z. A ridge builds overhead today, with increasing
heights with and upstream wave that will move from Montana into
North Dakota tonight. NAM BUFKIT profiles indicate daytime heating
could generate some skinny CAPE, and CAMS generate a stippling of
QPF, but without an upper wave and high clouds spilling over the
ridge, suspect anything that is generated will rapidly dissipate and
as such will stick with NBM POPs (about 5-10%).

The wave out west will present us with another round of moisture
chances tonight, but in the form of light showers with NAM BUFKIT
indicating profiles are moist adiabatic. NBM POPs are only around 20-
40% with only a few hundreds QPF.

In regards to smoke, With the source regions out west, smoke aloft is
a given though the brief transition of an upper ridge overhead
Friday means a trajectory of air aloft out of 4-Corners region which
has fewer/less widespread fires. While the RAP shows some surface
concentrations, widespread rainfall should mitigate this. Persistent
easterly low level flow for Today and southeasterlies for Friday
means smoke free air is advecting in the low levels. As such,
removed any mention of smoke as a surface obscuration.

A southwest flow regime sets up for Friday-Saturday. Most of the
moisture ends up in North Dakota, with a weak trough passage across
South Dakota. This is a minor wind shift with little appreciable
weather. Will have to check to see if there is any real threat of
smoke in this post system airmass, but at this point we are on the
eastern side of the high in northwest flow and a source region
closer to northern Canada than western Canada and the Pacific
Northwest so probably won`t be an issue regardless.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Scattered/numerous SHRA`s throughout the region early this morning
with some embedded TSRA over central South Dakota continue to move
eastward. KMBG is about to get out of the precipitation. But, KPIR,
KABR and KATY sites likely to remain in and out of periods of rain
over the next 3 to 6 hours. Heavier downpours that manage to move
over a TAF site (mainly KPIR or KATY) could bring brief MVFR/IFR
VSBY. Potential also exists for areas of MVFR/IFR CIGs at KPIR from
early this morning through early this afternoon. Otherwise, VFR
conditions and dry weather on a northeast breeze are forecast during
the next 24 hours.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...10