472
FXUS63 KABR 191738
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1238 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low clouds will persist into Monday and may result in periods of
  reduced visibility along higher terrain.

- Steadier showers move in tonight and Sunday as far east as the
  James Valley before tapering off from north to south on Monday.

- Temperatures will remain below seasonal normals the next few days
  before returning to near normal readings Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

An upper low will slowly translate from the Montana Rockies into
Minnesota over the next couple of days. For now, it continues to
eject shortwaves into the northern Plains while sfc high pressure is
transitioning over southern Canada and the northern Great Lakes.
This has placed this forecast area in a region of weak easterly
flow, helping to bump up low and mid level moisture. The associated
low clouds and drizzle or light rain are expected to persist in this
regime through Monday morning. Adjusted overnight temps toward
higher hi-res guidance with smaller diurnal fluctuations expected
due to cloud cover. It`s a known model bias to drag temps too low in
this type of pattern.

As the upper low exits to the east on Tuesday and a weak upper ridge
builds in, expect daytime highs to rise on southerly flow to closer
to normal values. On Wednesday evening, a llj sets up with some
additional shortwave energy as the upper ridge recedes. This means
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

MVFR/IFR cigs are expected to persist into Monday morning. Light
rain will spread over central SD tonight and Sunday, reducing
vsby to MVFR/IFR in heavier showers.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20