200
FXUS63 KABR 150000 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
600 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow Thursday night into Friday of up to an inch is expected, with
  1 to 3 inches mainly north of Clear Lake to Watertown.

- Strong winds with gusts of 45 to 65 mph is expected late
  Thursday afternoon through the day Friday. A High Wind Watch is
  in effect for areas west of Brown and Spink counties. These
  winds combined with falling snow could lead to reduced
  visibility and hazardous travel conditions, especially if snow
  squalls occur.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 538 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 411 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Temperatures will remain nearly steady in the teens and 20s, before
rising into the upper 30s and 40s during the day Thursday.

At 21Z today the center of high pressure stretched from far eastern
ND through western MN and eastern SD through eastern NE. The thick
line of clouds over central SD has remained in place all day, and
with more clouds filtering in from the north, shows only small signs
of diminishing and eastward movement. Otherwise, the clouds to the
east have mainly moved out of the area, showing the lingering light
snow on the ground over the northern extent of the Prairie Coteau.
Of course this snow is wind, sun, and temperature worn from the last
few weeks and is immovable. This is important given the strong winds
for Thursday afternoon through the day Friday.

Also of note is the area of low pressure over northern Canada, which
will sink across northern Manitoba Thursday afternoon and Ontario
into northern WI Thursday night. This feature will push an initial
cold front across most of central SD by 12Z Thursday and eastern SD
into west central MN shortly after 18Z Thursday. Winds will quickly
increase out of the northwest. A secondary cold front will wrap
south across the area Friday morning. Instability, cold air
advection, and winds will help to create an atmosphere prone to snow
squalls late Thursday through midday Friday. While overall snowfall
amounts are still around 1-3" north of a line near Clark to
Watertown for this event, the probability for 1" of snow or more has
increased about 20% compared to the main model runs 12 hours ago.
Bands of light snow in the quick northwesterly flow are a concern as
well, especially as colder air moves in. 850mb temperatures of less
than -8C after 09Z Friday will also result in enhancement off any
open water of the Missouri River (mainly south of Mobridge as areas
north look to be frozen for more than a week). Overall, expect
visibility in snow showers or snow squalls to greatly diminish, and
then improve when snow stops.

Confidence in still high in the wind/wind gust forecast, with the
ongoing High Wind Watch still in place for central SD Thursday night
through the day Friday. Additional headlines for wind and possibly
for the winds/snow can be expected as the time nears.

Looking farther out, highs Saturday will only be in the single
digits to teens (lowest over northeastern SD/west central MN). It
will be a return to near normal values temperature wise for much of
the time period, or at least within around 10 degrees either side of
normal. There is a 20-30% chance of snow Sunday. Blowing snow could
remain a concern over northeastern SD for several days, given the
forecast snowfall amounts Thursday night through Friday and cold air
continuing.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 538 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

MVFR CIGs still affecting KPIR/KMBG this evening, but are forecast
to move out at some point this evening/tonight, just unsure
exactly when as models are having a tough time with this feature, so
will amend as needed. There is potential for these lower clouds to
sneak into KABR later this evening also. Inserted SCT mention for
now, but may have to amend to BKN/OVC. Otherwise, surface winds
will be the big story Thursday afternoon, especially over central
SD (KPIR/KMBG) where gusts may reach 40-45 knots.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon
     for SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051.

MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...TMT