319
FXUS63 KABR 310506
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1206 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rainfall chances (40-70%) return for Tuesday. Severe weather
unlikely.

- Above normal temperatures (+5 to +10 degrees) remaining in place
through much of the upcoming week, especially the latter half and
into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Cold front is almost completely across the CWA with dewpoints in the
50s upstream replacing 70s. Convection  in the post frontal airmass
continues east and weakens through the next few hours.

Weak surface high pressure overhead today, with westerly low level
flow keeping us dry, but no longer cold advecting aloft. An upper
low travels across the southern tier of Canada, with a tighter
gradient up in North Dakota, down here mixed winds only top out in
the low 20s (kts) for KMBG and lower elsewhere. Once the upper low
moves east, an elongated ridge develops extending out of the Bermuda
high centered over the southeast. Embedded within this ridge is a
band of moisture aloft, coming up out of the tropical Pacific/sea
of Cortez region and this is our next round of moisture.

NAM BUFKIT profiles show mainly most adiabatic profiles, with NAM
PWATS around 1.5 to 1.75 inches and the GEFS closer to a mean of
1.25 to 1.5 but still right at the limit of 2 standard deviations
above climo. Southwesterly flow at 500mb is still fairly strong (30-
50kts), however it appears a low level flow is east southeasterly
with a weak low, associated with a subtle southwest flow shortwave
coming in behind the mid level plume of moisture.

Once that system progresses out of the region, a trough over the
western CONUS becomes the main defining feature of the upper level
flow. Its nearly stationary, with southwest flow aloft overhead
under a broad ridge that develops in response.  That ridge gradually
transitions into the upper level high, all of this shutting us down
for moisture. All that time, mid level temperatures are on the
increase, topping out around +13 to +15C at 700mb, about a
standard deviation above climo.

850mb temperatures are likewise about a standard deviation above
climo, with NBM highs/lows running about 5 to 10 degrees above
normal, with the warmest days Friday/Saturday with readings 10 to 20
degrees above.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast over the next 24 hours. Right now, it
appears KABR holds the highest probability of experiencing a TSRA
during the remaining overnight hours. Introduced a TEMPO group into
the KABR TAF for this. Brief MVFR/IFR VSBY is possible in any
heavier downpours. The cold front has already worked through KMBG,
KPIR and KABR. Winds have switched around to a northwest direction
at these terminals. All that`s left for this cold front to work past
is the KATY terminal (by 08Z), turning winds around out of the
northwest there as well. Surface high pressure will quickly makes
its way across the region over the next 24 hours, making for
unsettled shifting wind direction.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...10