328
FXUS63 KABR 182344 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
644 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Brisk northwest winds diminish this evening with a brief rain or
snow shower possible for parts of northeast SD and west central MN
mid to late evening.

- Dry conditions are expected the latter half of the weekend this
into the first half of next week with temperatures warming back
above normal next week.

- Elevated fire weather conditions will return next week as gusty
winds and low relative humidity values are expected.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

See the updated aviation discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

This afternoon has featured a mostly sunny to partly cloudy sky
across the forecast area as low to mid level flow remain out of the
northwest. This has help to maintain a cooler than normal air mass
across the region with afternoon readings holding mainly in the 40s.
Northwest winds have remained brisk helping to drive in a very dry
air mass across the CWA, especially across our eastern zones where
dew point temperatures have settled into the upper single digits to
low teens. In turn, this has allowed RH values to approach critical
levels of around 25-30 percent across our eastern zones. We still
have a few more hours of peak heating left as northwest winds remain
gusty allowing for elevated fire weather conditions to persist
across our east.

These conditions will recover by early this evening and wind speeds
begin to diminish and temperatures start to drop. Poised to our
north and northwest is a weak upper wave and sfc cold front this is
progged to sweep through tonight. This may provide parts of
northeast SD and west central MN with a brief rain or snow shower or
at least some sprinkles/flurries. Very little if no accumulation is
expected. Sfc high pressure builds in from the north on Sunday
leading to a much more manageable north to northeast breeze. This
will aid in maintaining a cool air mass across most of the forecast
area especially across the eastern half of the CWA. Daytime readings
in the 40s to near 50 is about the best this area will be able to
achieve. Slightly warmer conditions across central SD are expected
with highs warming closer to normal with low to mid 50s possible.
High pressure slips off to our southeast Sunday night into Monday. A
tightening pressure gradient between this high and low pressure to
the west and north will lead to breezy southerly winds on Monday. A
warmer air mass will be lifted back to the north into our region
leading to temperatures warming back above normal. With dry
conditions expected and RH values falling into critical levels,
elevated fire weather conditions are once again expected to develop,
especially across parts of central SD along and south of the US
Highway 14 corridor.

Another cold front is progged to pass through dry late Monday into
early Tuesday. Winds will switch back around to the north and
northeast however the air mass doesn`t cool off a significant
amount. Above normal temperatures are still expected on Tuesday and
into Wednesday for that matter. Wednesday could be the warmest day
of the forecast period with daytime readings in the 80s possible. In
fact, highs approaching 90 degrees may be possible in our southern
zones. NBM probabilities of seeing temperatures reaching 90 degrees
are 30-50 percent along and south of the US Highway 14 corridor.
Wednesday will be another day to monitor fire weather as gusty
southerly winds and dry conditions will lead to elevated fire danger
once again. Going into the latter half of next week, an upper trough
is expected to roll into the western CONUS and turn our upper flow
back to the southwest. This will lead to a more active pattern with
low pressure returning to the region and increasing chances for
showers late Wednesday through the end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will prevail. A cold front will sag south out of
North Dakota tonight. There may be just enough saturation along
the front to result in a light rain/snow shower, however
upstream obs have yet to indicate any measurable precipitation
at this point. Coverage will be low, therefore continued a VCSH
only mention in the KABR/KATY TAF. Otherwise, expect northwest
winds to slacken overnight as high pressure moves in.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Serr
DISCUSSION...Vipond
AVIATION...Serr