370
FXUS63 KABR 122148
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
348 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild temperatures around 20 degrees above normal are expected
  Tuesday with highs generally in the 40s to around 50 degrees
  and overnight lows in the 30s. Much colder conditions, even
  colder than normal for mid January, return late in the week.

- A 30-60 percent chance for light rain possible Tuesday across
  central South Dakota before an increased chance of 45-75
  percent of snow possible Thursday and Friday. Accumulations look
  minimal, but there could be up to an inch (60-80 percent
  chance) of snow accumulating up on the Prairie Coteau late
  Thursday into Friday.


- A period of strong northwest winds are expected on Tuesday into
  early Wednesday where gusts will range between 35-45 mph. Even
  stronger winds may be possible late Thursday through Friday
  where peak wind gusts may range between 40-55 mph. This combined
  with any snowfall could lead to hazardous weather conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Conditions across the forecast area this afternoon feature a mix of
sunny breaks in between high clouds drifting overhead. Temperatures
have responded nicely underneath the influence of a Pacific air mass
and have ranged from the 40s to around 50 along and east of the
James Valley with upper 40s to mid 50s west of the James Valley.
Quite impressive to say the least for mid January. The only thing
that`s dampened the mild effect is thicker high level cloud cover
has started to infiltrate the forecast area from the northwest. This
has slowed what we have left of peak heating time this afternoon.
However, the mild trend will spill over into tonight as we retain
westerly low level flow. A trough at the sfc and aloft is progged to
shift across the CWA switching winds from a southwest direction to a
more west to northwest direction. Winds are also expected to
intensify a bit tonight as gusty winds up to 40-45 mph will be
possible in favored downslope areas in northeast SD along with the
Leola Hills area. Overnight lows will be very mild with readings in
the 30s  which is about 10-12 degrees above the normal high
temperatures for this time of year. If there`s any precip associated
with the passing trough, it should remain confined just off to the
northeast of our forecast area in central and northern MN.

Unfortunately, this mild and dry weather will be but a memory
heading into Tuesday and Wednesday. Northwest flow at the sfc and
aloft will continue to remain entrenched across the Northern Plains.
A sfc low pressure system will shift southeast out of Ontario into
the western Great Lakes on Tuesday. An associated sfc boundary will
set up across the western portion of SD as an upper jet streak
develops across central SD. This will kick off rain shower activity
during the daytime hours primarily across central SD. Moisture
values remain limited and there will be a low level dry layer to
contend with so it could take some time during the morning hours for
the rain to start. This activity will taper off and shift south of
our area by late afternoon or early evening. Breezy to windy
conditions are still anticipated on Tuesday, although there`s less
evidence among the guidance that widespread wind advisory level
winds will pan out. Probabilities of seeing gusts in excess of 45
mph are now confined to parts of north central SD eastward to
locales on the west side of the James Valley. Both NBM and HREF
indicate a range of 20-30 percent chances for wind gusts in excess
of 45 mph in these locales. HREF is a bit more aggressive around the
Leola Hills area and points south with probs ranging from 30-60
percent. So, it`s certainly possible that parts of the forecast area
will see winds this strong but coverage is more limited and with the
lack of any pronounced cold air advection during the day, confidence
is lower for wind headlines. Will let the overnight shift have one
more assessment of it to see if headlines are warranted anywhere.

By the end of the day Tuesday into Tuesday night, models continue to
prog a backdoor cold front will be dropping south and southwest
through the area. Cold air advection will follow, with fropa timing
influencing late day and evening temperature trends. Gusty north to
northwest winds may persist into the overnight hours. Moisture
associated with the fropa is rather scant, but still can`t rule out
some sprinkles/flurries or a brief rain/snow shower across our
eastern zones. A much cooler air mass will settle in on Wednesday
with daytime readings in the upper teens to mid 20s along and east
of the James Valley. Shortwave upper ridging will build into the
region late Wednesday into Thursday leading to a brief warm up on
Thursday with highs in the 30s and 40s. A warm air advection pattern
behind a passing warm front will kick off a round of rain/snow
showers across northeast SD and west central MN during the day.
Gusty west to northwest winds will develop across central SD
Thursday afternoon, potentially reaching wind advisory criteria. NBM
probabilities of seeing gusts greater than 45 mph range from 50-80
percent from the west side of the James Valley through west river
zones. An upper trough will move through late Thursday into Friday
and push a strong cold front through the forecast area. Light snow
is possible with minor accumulations across our eastern zones. The
primary impact will be the strong northwest winds that develop in
the strong cold air advection on Friday. Probabilities of gusts
greater than 45 mph from the NBM indicate a range of 50-80 percent
across most of our SD zones. These values drop off to between 20-40
percent for gusts in excess of 58 mph or high wind warning criteria
and mainly confined to parts of the Missouri Valley. The combination
of the strong winds and areas that see snow, such as our eastern
zones, will be potentially seeing hazardous wintry weather like
blowing snow and reduced visibilities on Friday. If snowfall
expectations increase or colder temperatures are expected, this will
enhance those issues. Any snowfall should taper off Friday night
into Saturday. Arctic cold air will drain south out of Canada into
our area by the start of the weekend with below normal temperatures
expected to return. Temperatures should then begin to modify early
next week as we get on the backside of a departing sfc high pressure
to our east.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1139 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will persist at all terminals through the next 24
hours with the exception of the very end of this TAF cycle at
KMBG. Westerly winds this afternoon may gust around 20 knots at
KPIR/KMBG. Low level wind shear (LLWS) will become a concern this
evening and overnight and through about mid morning Tuesday. Sfc
winds will be increasing this evening as well as a strong low
level jet is expected to develop. An extended period of LLWS
remains in the forecast for all terminals tonight into Tuesday
morning. Added Prob30 groups for light rain late in the period at
KPIR/KMBG. KMBG may also start to see cigs dip into high end MVFR
at the tail end of this forecast.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Vipond
AVIATION...Vipond