433
FXUS63 KABR 250629
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
129 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend in place through mid-week, with temperatures
persistently above average through the end of the 7-day forecast.
Today and Tuesday could see highs reaching or exceeding the 90F
degree mark (15 to 20 degrees above normal) in some places. The rest
of the week will see highs range in the upper 70s to upper 80s.

- Some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms could develop
or move over portions of south central and east central South Dakota
this evening, with rain chances persisting over those areas into the
early overnight hours.

- Isolated to scattered evening and overnight thunderstorm chances
(20-40 percent chances) exist off and on Thursday evening continuing
into Sunday evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 128 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

An upper-level ridge will start to build over and to the north of SD
today through the rest of the week, with the models showing split
flow occurring over the state. This ridge will help warm air to
continue moving into SD today and Tuesday, which will warm
temperatures to be 15-20 degrees above normal. The high temperatures
will get into the upper 80s to low 90s. Another low level jet is
forecast to develop over northern NE and parts of southern SD later
this afternoon into the evening. This jet combined with the warmer
temperatures and some moisture in that area will likely cause some
storms and showers to develop. These storms will most likely stay
over NE and southeast SD, however a couple of the high-res models
are hinting that a couple of showers and storms could clip south
central and east central SD this evening with scattered rain
chances continuing during the night.

Tuesday, an upper-level trough and low looks to set up over the
Rockies which will help to support a surface trough to develop and
sit over western SD and WY through the rest of the work week. As
this trough sits over this area, a low level jet will develop and
pull cold air in. This cold air will help to get the winds in the
jet to the surface, with gusts of 30 to 40 mph possible mainly over
central SD starting Tuesday afternoon and in the afternoons that
follow. The cold air will also help to cool temperatures slightly
after Tuesday through the rest of the week. While temperatures are
cooling, highs will still be in the 80s. This heat could combine
with moisture moving into central and northeastern SD to cause
afternoon showers and storms to develop Tuesday and onward. Due to
the split flow aloft, the models vary the timing, location, and
intensity of these showers and storms. There are higher chances for
rain and showers to develop towards the end of the work week as some
of the models hint at things starting to shift. An eye will need to
be kept on upcoming model runs to see if they still continue on this
trend and if more models show it occurring.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...TMT