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Lightning more likely with MUCAPE > 100 and EL Temp < -20 |
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>40% Favorable for avoiding Dry Air Entrainment |
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<40kts - "High Precip" Supercells 40-60kts - "Classic" Supercells >60kts "Low Precip" Supercells |
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10-50 Supercells, > 50 non-supercells, <10 shear-dom environments |
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<40kts - "High Precip" Supercells 40-60kts - "Classic" Supercells >60kts "Low Precip" Supercells |
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Updraft Rotation (>150 m2/s2) |
Updraft Rotation (>150 m2/s2) |
Weak Tor (60-200 m2/s2) Sig Tor (150+ m2/s2) |
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LL Mesocyclone (>20 kts) |
RFD Bouyancy (<1000 m) |
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Supercell Tors (>1) |
Supercell Tors (>1) |
Supercell Tors (>1) |
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EF-2+ Tor have occurred with > 1-2 |
Adds 0-3km MLCAPE and 0-6km Bulk Wind Diff |
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Tilting/Stretching of H. Vort. (>0.2 m2/s2) |
LL Parcel Acceleration (>100 J/Kg) |
Tornadic Supercells tend to have values of 15kts or more |
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Baroclinc H. Vort. Generation |
Angle near 90deg infer streamwise vort. near ground |
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EF-2+ Tor have occurred with >70 |
Baroclinic H. Vort. Generation |
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Downdraft Strength (>700 J/Kg) |
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Slight (3-4), Chance (5-8), Likely (>=9) |
>= 15kts = 60 mph, >= 25kts = 70 mph, >= 30kts = 80 mph * (* only if we also have linear mode & BRN shear 50 m2/s2 or more (strong deep shear)) Values need to be higher for elevated storms |
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-10-30 C Layer (>500 J/Kg) |
Greater Than 2 Inch Hail (SHP>2) |
Parcel Accel. ( > 0.3 = Fat CAPE Profile) |
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"Best Guess" |
Color Fill: % of Analog with 2+" hail; Contour: # of Matching Cases (100 Common) |
Hail 1.5-1.75" = 4 Hail >2": Values > 10 Hail >3.5": Values >= 14 |
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Donavon: 10kft FZ = 25kft 50dBZ 13kft FZ = 34.7kft 50dBZ |
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Low Level Jet |
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(>=30kts Line Normal) |
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(>=30kts Line Normal) |
Values over 1 favorable |
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Backbuilding/Regeneration (<15 kts) |
PWAT/RH/Moisture Convergence |
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