Severe Weather - Mesoanalysis

SPC Sector:  

Quick Overview
Surface Obs/Initiation
Sfc Thermo/Shear
Storm Mode
Supercell
Tornado
Wind
Hail
Elevated
Non-Supercell
Upper Air
Heavy Rain
VWP Hodo
Quick Overview
MLCAPE
0-6km Bulk Shear
Mid Level Lapse Rates
SCP
STP - Effective
Hodograph
DCAPE
SHIP
Skew-T

Surface Obs/Initiation
MSLP
Sfc Obs
SFC Dewpoint
2hr MSLP Change
Visible Satellite
3hr Temp Change
Moisture Convergence
SFC Theta-E Advection
SFC Mixing Ratio
2-hr Dewpoint Change
3-hr Theta-E Change
3-hr Mixing Ratio Change
Deep Moist Convergence
Sfc FGen
1000-925 FGen
Vel Tensor Mag
Sfc Divergence & Vort
Deformation & Dilatation

Surface Based Thermo/Shear
SB CAPE
ML CAPE
0-6 km Shear
3hr SB CAPE Change
3hr ML CAPE Change
Effective Shear
Low Level Lapse Rates
Mid Level Lapse Rates
Max LR (in 2-6km layer)
Low Level Lapse Rates - 3hr
Mid Level Lapse Rates - 6hr
Storm Motion (850-300mb Mean Wind)
SB LI
EL Temp / MUCAPE / MUCIN
Lightning more likely with MUCAPE > 100
and EL Temp < -20
LCL-LFC Mean RH
>40% Favorable for avoiding
Dry Air Entrainment

Storm Mode
MSLP/T/Td
925mb Chart
850mb Chart
Mean Wind (850-300mb)
Supercell Composite (> 1)
Supercell Composite (Left-Moving)
Effective Bulk Shear
Anvil Level (9-11km) Winds
<40kts - "High Precip" Supercells
40-60kts - "Classic" Supercells
>60kts "Low Precip" Supercells
Upwind Propagation
BRN (CAPE/BRNSHR)
10-50 Supercells,
> 50 non-supercells, <10 shear-dom environments
Hodograph

Supercell
Supercell Composite (> 1)
Supercell Composite (Left-Moving)
BRN Shear (> 35-40)
Craven/Brooks Sig Severe(>20K)
0-3km SRH (>250 m2/s2)
Sfc-2km Storm Rel Winds (>15-20kts)
Anvil Level (9-11km) Winds
<40kts - "High Precip" Supercells
40-60kts - "Classic" Supercells
>60kts "Low Precip" Supercells

Tornado Ingredients
Effective SRH
Updraft Rotation (>150 m2/s2)
0-1 SRH
Updraft Rotation (>150 m2/s2)
0-500m SRH
Weak Tor (60-200 m2/s2)
Sig Tor (150+ m2/s2)
0-1 km Shear
LL Mesocyclone (>20 kts)
LCL Height
RFD Bouyancy (<1000 m)
Sig Tor. Parameter (Fixed)
Supercell Tors (>1)
Sig Tor. Parameter (Effective)
Supercell Tors (>1)
Sig Tor. Parameter (0-500 SRH)
Supercell Tors (>1)
EHI (Sfc-1km)
EF-2+ Tor have occurred with > 1-2
Tornado 0-1km EHI
Adds 0-3km MLCAPE and 0-6km Bulk Wind Diff
Tor Tilting & Stretching
0-3 km Vorticity Generation Parameter
Tilting/Stretching of H. Vort. (>0.2 m2/s2)
0-3 km Lapse Rate and ML CAPE
LL Parcel Acceleration (>100 J/Kg)
ML Storm Relative Winds (4-6km)
Tornadic Supercells tend to have values of
15kts or more
0-2 km Storm Relative Winds
Baroclinc H. Vort. Generation
Violent Tor Parm (VTP)
Critical Angle
Angle near 90deg infer streamwise vort.
near ground
CWASP
EF-2+ Tor have occurred with >70
Enhanced Stretching Potential
Anvil Level Storm Relative Winds
Baroclinic H. Vort. Generation
Cond. Prob SigTor (Eq1)
Cond. Prob SigTor (Eq1)
Cond. EF0+ Prob. RM Supercell (Eff STP)
Cond. EF2+ Prob. RM Supercell (Eff STP)
Cond. EF4+ Prob. RM Supercell (Eff STP)

Damaging Wind Ingredients
Downdraft CAPE 
Downdraft Strength (>700 J/Kg)
Derecho Composite
Low Level Lapse Rate
MCS Maintenance
Microburst Composite
Slight (3-4), Chance (5-8), Likely (>=9)
0-3km Bulk Shear (if DCAPE >= 1k)
>= 15kts = 60 mph, >= 25kts = 70 mph, >= 30kts = 80 mph *
(* only if we also have linear mode &
BRN shear 50 m2/s2 or more (strong deep shear))
Values need to be higher for elevated storms

Hail Ingredients
Hail CAPE
-10-30 C Layer (>500 J/Kg)
Significant Hail Parameter
Greater Than 2 Inch Hail (SHP>2)
Normalized CAPE
Parcel Accel. ( > 0.3 = Fat CAPE Profile)
SARS Hail Size
"Best Guess"
SARS Sig. Hail Percentage
Color Fill: % of Analog with 2+" hail;
Contour: # of Matching Cases (100 Common)
Large Hail Parameter (LHP)
Hail 1.5-1.75" = 4
Hail >2": Values > 10
Hail >3.5": Values >= 14
Freezing Level
Donavon: 10kft FZ = 25kft 50dBZ
13kft FZ = 34.7kft 50dBZ

Elevated Convection
MU CAPE
850 MB
Low Level Jet
MU LI
MU CAPE

Non-Supercell Tornado - QLCS/Landspout
QLCS Tor (MUCAPE)
QLCS Tor (MLCAPE)
QLCS Tor - 0-3KM Bulk Shear
(>=30kts Line Normal)
QLCS Tor - 0-3KM Bulk Shear
(>=30kts Line Normal)
SHERBE - Low CAPE / High Shear
Values over 1 favorable
Modified SHERBE
NST Parameter
SFC Vort/0-3 km CAPE
Low Level Lapse Rates

Upper Air
925 MB
925 MB Temp Adv
925 MB FGen
850 MB
850 MB Temp Adv
850 MB FGen
700 MB
700 MB Temp Adv
700 MB FGen
500 MB
500 MB 12hr Height Chg
500 MB Diff Vort Adv
300 MB
300 MB Jet Circulation
400-250 MB Pot Vort Adv

Heavy Rain Ingredients
PWAT
925 mb Moisture Transport
850 mb Moisture Transport
PWAT + 850 mb Moisture Transport
Corfidi Vectors
Backbuilding/Regeneration (<15 kts)
Precip. Potential Placement
PWAT/RH/Moisture Convergence